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Statistics around the balance of even/odd and small/big numbers

Topic closed. 142 replies. Last post 6 years ago by RL-RANDOMLOGIC.

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United States
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July 10, 2010
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Posted: February 9, 2011, 4:48 pm - IP Logged

jimmy

This shows a major defect in that exist in many here who post the stats.  I can't speak for others

but I don't bet on the odd-even split or any other split.  When playing, spending $575,757.00 to win

$50,000.00 would be kind of stupid at least from my perspective, you may think this is a good way to

play and more power to you but leave me out.   In order for me to play my $8.00 to $12.00 a couple

times a week or month I must remove over 575,740 + sets.  Filters are always a last resort effort and

I think this applies to most people.  Even people who pick numbers, pick numbers first.  When someone

wheels their favorite numbers and the wheeling process produces too many sets then they apply filters

to reduce.

When filtering it always makes since to keep the sets that come from the largest population of some value. 

It is not betting that a odd-even split will hit but just choosing based on population of possible sets, duh. 

Some people wheel numbers and I wheel digits.  I can wheel 2 to 10 but the more i wheel the more filters

I need to reduce sets.  Many days I don't need to use a single filter and only need to place a few conditions

on the digits I play.  I have no idea what will hit in the next draw so I make my selections based on what

the matrix offers.  I have a method of picking digits that works for me.  When or why I choose the digits I

play depends on many things which change everyday.  Sorry my system of selecting digits is not static

enough for you to backtest, but if it was then I don't think I would be posting this system to begin with

because we both know what the results of such a system would be.  I would not be concerned about

your frenchmen flipping around in their graves as they are dead and have ceased from thinking at all.

The lottery is a game of chance and the stats you use are static and will never change for any game as

long as the game remains the same.  The software I use is mechanical and uses my inputs to build sets.

The results remain the same until I change some setting.  The reasons I select a value to input is based

on many things and do change day to day, week to week and month to month meaning they are never

the same.  You would agree that a skilled poker player can improve his overall play by nothing more then

knowing when to fold, when in doubt wait it out.   I think you like picking at my post  because I am one

of the few here that will reply.

RL

"Many days I don't need to use a single filter and only need to place a few conditions on the digits I play."

And what might distinguish these days from the days when you would NEED to use a filter or two?

"When or why I choose the digits Iplay depends on many things which change everyday."

Since you have assured us your decisions have absolutely NOTHING to do with past draw results in the game, would you be willing to tell us what just ONE of these "things" that change daily might be?

"The results remain the same until I change some setting."

And just what sort of EVENT would cause you to change a setting?  Could it be the temperature outside your window at a certain time in the AM, or the number of traffic accidents in your city from the previous day?  You must have some reason to change your setting for [say] the number of unique digits in your betting sets from "5 or 6" to "6 or 7."  You have assured us repeatedly that you have no intention of trying to market your computer program, that you just want to help others make money like you do.  Given this fact, it is really quite puzzling why you are so reticent to reveal any more than conflicting and confusing information delivered mostly in prose that doesn't allow anyone to attempt a serious evaluation of your methods and/or results.

I am almost ready to post the first of several segments of an evaluation of the value of Splitting and Splicing the Digits that are the components of the Labels used to identify Ping Pong Balls.  If you're interested in this, you will stop interrupting me so I can get on with it!


    United States
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    July 10, 2010
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    Posted: February 9, 2011, 4:55 pm - IP Logged
      Fortuna's avatar - Photomanipulation icon.png

      United States
      Member #27654
      December 4, 2005
      100 Posts
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      Posted: February 9, 2011, 5:03 pm - IP Logged

      truecritic

      The old dos software went out back durning my system post.  About 30 people got the

      software before I had to stop.  The software was never intended for public release and

      was somewhat dated.  I never built a help menu or instructions and then found myself

      coaching 30 people on 100's of different questions.  It took over my entire life and so we

      started a yahoo group so that members could learn from others thinking this would take

      the load off, Nope.  It was a little like throwing gas on a fire as I now had all the emails and

      the group to deal with.  I enjoyed this for the most part but had no time for anything, I gave

      up all of my free time plus had to put other projects on hold just to answer peoples question.

      I found myself getting up earlier and staying up later, pushing other projects aside.  We  decided

      to finally close the group and tell people we could no longer keep doing it.   

      The jackpot I won was using the same dos system that I posted and gave away for free and the

      amount was under 50K.  The lady was the friend of a friend of a friend sort of thing so I was really

      no big deal but was a little embarrassing. 

      I don't like attention and have a very tight small group of friends in my inner circle.  To post a picture

      here at LP you need a place to store the image online.  I sent pics of tickets to carbob, winsum, and

      others and if I was not truthful don't you think these people would have said something by now.

      I don't feel the need to prove my claims to every single person in the world.  Most of the people with the

      software are amazed with how easy it is to reduce the sets down to 500 or so.  The problem is getting

      from that point down to less then 20 without losing the 5 of 5 and 4 of 5's.  Some peole would say that

      reducing sets to 500 and still having the winner in the 500 is easy,  I say, "Try it."  I can make 8 choices,

      which if correct will produce the winning  ticket in fewer then 15 lines most days.  four of these are no

      brainers and one only has two choices to pick from over 85% of the time.  The remaining 3 are the hard

      ones but but have odds of less then 1 in 100 for all three. 

      On what I consider a really bad day I miss 2 of the 7 and many days I miss only by one.   The problem here

      is that even at 1 in 100 odds I could go the rest of my life and never win.  Some would say why don't you

      play the 500, and my reply is how many 500's can you afford to lose in a row.  I am not a gambler and can't

      stand to even lose 5 bucks.   Most days I play on paper and it cost me nothing.  When I do play then

      I expect to at least break even.  The lottery is a hobby and nothing more.

       

      I made my system post and from the beginning made clear that I would not release everything.

      I posted some facts concerning digits and had hoped that people would add it to there system

      of picking numbers.  I at least hoped that people would take the time if nothing else to check

      there sets against this data.  My big mistake was to try and provide pen and paper users some

      useful information that would allow them to use the digit system without software.  I also had

      to keep the 10 year old system seperated from the current methods being used.  You will find jumps

      in my post where I found myself getting ahead of what I intended to post.  This left me in a less then

      comfortable position.  I should have just posted the digit data for people to use or not use and let it

      go at that.  Some here have decided to pick the system apart using statistics on a system that was 

      not designed to be statistical.  Not one of these posters has provided me any information that I had

      not tested before I wrote the first line many many years ago.  I am a person who likes to solve things

      and my whole life from a small child this has been my passion.  The lottery was like a quest that I

      knew might take my whole life with no guarantee of success and that I could not resist. 

       

      Since I found no statistical data that could support the idea that the lottery was winnable using statistics

      I soon abandoned statistics but not the project.  I started to study the concept random and found that

      random is a catch phraes used to explain complex systems or events that are too complicated to easily

      figure out. 

      My next step was to study the matrix which lead me to the digit system.  Back in those days I was limited

      to using a computer with a 8088 cpu.  It often took days or even a week to generate the data for even a

      small matrix and even longer to run the analysis.  I soon found that a random sample taken from the larger

      matrix showed the random numbers generated fell very close to the expected average.  The main problem

      was that there was no way to predict when a number would show next.  I found many at first that seemed

      to show some promise but later found that these patterns could be explained by chance. I almost chose to

      quit at this time but one day got the idea to count the digits within a group of randomly generated sets and

      found the same data, they matched the expected.   I knew that the only way to improve ones chance was

      to be able to predict what would come next and without this any attempt would be almost useless.  I want

      to make the point that "I don't say that people who use patterns or other methods to choose numbers

      are wasting time, if it works then use it."   I was almost ready to give up again but then got the idea that

      since the digits hit at a much greater rate then the numbers they produce then it only makes since that 

      the gaps between a digit hitting must be far less.  BAM! The digit system was born.  In the last 10 draws

      for my 5-39 game 13 numbers are no-shows but the lowest hitting digit has hit 3 times.  It is not uncommon

      for any one numbers skips to be anything from 1 to 50 with some numbers staying out 100 or more games.

      Digits do not suffer this,  my 5-39's digits 1-2-3 have almost a 9 in 10 chance of hitting.  Digits 4-5-6-7-8-9

      have a 4.3 in 10 chance and Digit 0 has a 3.4 in 10 chance.  Now some may be saying this can be calculated

      and shows no advantage over any other method but consider this.  If one Looks to the matrix of possible

      sets one finds the matrix is very much the reason behind the digits and not the random selection of numbers.

      The drawing of 5 numbers is irrelevant and no matter how random the 5 numbers seem to be they will

      follow the matrix in population and distrubition.   The advantage.  Because the population and distrubition

      of digits is uneffected by the randomness of the drawing then patterns of digits showing must also exist.

      The error from the expected for digits is far less then the error rate for numbers especially in small samples.

      Think of this a little like playing a number because it is due or overdue.  With a number when using this

      reasoning the chance of the number hitting in the next draw is far more likely to be incorrect then using the

      same logic for digits.  The digits hug a matrix like bark hugs a tree.  It is a careful study of this that allows

      one to make better choices.  Finding the correct digits to play is only half the battle and the digits alone

      will produce too many sets to play. However using the same logic as above when trying to predict which

      digits to play one can also predict how many of each will show. 

      5-39

      Example playing 6 digits 1-2-3-4-5-6 (no restrictions except all 6 must be in every set.

      sets produced = 5421

      if digits 1-2-3 are set so they must hit twice in each set and digits 4-5-6 only once per set

      sets produced = 216

      if digits 1-3 are set so they must hit twice in each set and digits 1-4-5-6 only once per set

      sets produced = 144

       

      All this is for nothing if the digits selected are incorrect,  but as I have explained above the digits

      with some careful study and knowing your matrix and using some of what I call random-logic then

      the digits are not that hard to select.  The drawing will be a random selection from the matrix and

      the if the digits had no randomness at all then there would be no lottery.  The random-logic is my

      secret additive which adjust for this,  It is different for every matrix and method used to select the

      numbers such as RNG or ball drop but I think anyone could develope their own if they tried.  I hope

      this answers yours and many others questions about the digit system.   Winning means being able

      to predict and predicting digits is much easier then predicting numbers.  Which ones to play and how

      many is key.  Some may hate the idea and others will love it, makes no difference to me which. 

       

      RL

      RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

      I did not know that you were still posting.

      I followed your posts about the 5-6 digit and I started implementing an online version (http://lafortuna.info/calculator/Jackpot.aspx).

      I sort of abandoned the project until a few days ago I received a request from Sweden to implement a version for a 7-number game.

      I made a few changes to my program and I added a the 7-number game to the page.

      I could add some of your calculations and predictions to the page, if you are willing to explain the algorithms behind.

      Otherwise I will continue on my own, time permitting.

      Fortuna

      Luke 6:38 "Give, and it shall be given to you."

        RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

        United States
        Member #59354
        March 13, 2008
        3972 Posts
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        Posted: February 10, 2011, 4:16 pm - IP Logged

        "Many days I don't need to use a single filter and only need to place a few conditions on the digits I play."

        And what might distinguish these days from the days when you would NEED to use a filter or two?

        "When or why I choose the digits Iplay depends on many things which change everyday."

        Since you have assured us your decisions have absolutely NOTHING to do with past draw results in the game, would you be willing to tell us what just ONE of these "things" that change daily might be?

        "The results remain the same until I change some setting."

        And just what sort of EVENT would cause you to change a setting?  Could it be the temperature outside your window at a certain time in the AM, or the number of traffic accidents in your city from the previous day?  You must have some reason to change your setting for [say] the number of unique digits in your betting sets from "5 or 6" to "6 or 7."  You have assured us repeatedly that you have no intention of trying to market your computer program, that you just want to help others make money like you do.  Given this fact, it is really quite puzzling why you are so reticent to reveal any more than conflicting and confusing information delivered mostly in prose that doesn't allow anyone to attempt a serious evaluation of your methods and/or results.

        I am almost ready to post the first of several segments of an evaluation of the value of Splitting and Splicing the Digits that are the components of the Labels used to identify Ping Pong Balls.  If you're interested in this, you will stop interrupting me so I can get on with it!

        Jimmy

        Don't waste your time. You are still clueless as to what I am doing. Your above post shows that

        your understanding of my methods is zero. Your are going to try to post static results which mean

        nothing.  Then maybe you will do some backtest using every drawing to prove what I already know.

        Here we go again, Do you know repeating yourself over and over is a sign of mental illness.  You

        have nothing to offer here or anywhere for that matter, I am not saying the math is useless, just YOU!

        Your need to use large fonts and many colors to highlight your text makes you look like a clown in my

        opinion.  I posted a breakdown of digits VS numbers back before you ever started posting.  Do you

        really think that I don't already know what you think you have found.  I guess I should point out that

        your post about the error in the data did lead me to investigate and I found that my database had 

        some update errors.  I maintain many databases and must have the incorrect database selected when

        doing a update.   I sometimes don't have the time to update every day and then have to update several

        drawings for many different games.


          United States
          Member #93947
          July 10, 2010
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          Posted: February 10, 2011, 6:16 pm - IP Logged

          RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

          True to form, you have elected the same refuge as in the past.  Namely, when you can't deal with facts and tough questions, you resort to personal attacks on me.  You must think everyone here is stupid.  Each of my 3 questions above were attached to specific statements that you made.  If you actually think I'm the only one who notices this, then I feel bad for you.

          --Jimmy4164

            RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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            Posted: February 10, 2011, 11:20 pm - IP Logged

            RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

            True to form, you have elected the same refuge as in the past.  Namely, when you can't deal with facts and tough questions, you resort to personal attacks on me.  You must think everyone here is stupid.  Each of my 3 questions above were attached to specific statements that you made.  If you actually think I'm the only one who notices this, then I feel bad for you.

            --Jimmy4164

            jimmy

            Your like a turd that won't flush.  What tough questions?  All I see is a continued insistance that I

            provide you with information on how I interpret many different bits of data.  I use my mind, something

            that you seem unable to do.  I run the statistics only as a guide to check the expected vs the actual and

            then make a decision based on many such observations.  Do you really need me to hold your hand

            and take you step be step.  You can't think for yourself or you would understand what I am saying.

            I alone must make the final decision based on what I believe will happen.  Computers are stupid but

            can process large amounts information very quickly.  What one can do with this data is as different as

            the people who use it.   You have a problem and it's not me.

            RL


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              Member #93947
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              Posted: February 14, 2011, 7:28 pm - IP Logged

              jimmy

              Your like a turd that won't flush.  What tough questions?  All I see is a continued insistance that I

              provide you with information on how I interpret many different bits of data.  I use my mind, something

              that you seem unable to do.  I run the statistics only as a guide to check the expected vs the actual and

              then make a decision based on many such observations.  Do you really need me to hold your hand

              and take you step be step.  You can't think for yourself or you would understand what I am saying.

              I alone must make the final decision based on what I believe will happen.  Computers are stupid but

              can process large amounts information very quickly.  What one can do with this data is as different as

              the people who use it.   You have a problem and it's not me.

              RL

              (Sorry rl-randomlogic for the large and colorful type below, which apparently annoys you.)

              (However, some of us like to lean back in our chairs.)

              Completely predictable by Probability, it is not only possible, but highly likely, that people can and will "BEAT THE ODDS" in the SHORT RUN.  You need to understand the concept of Standard Deviation in Stochastic Processes to know why this is true.  Since you claim that you do understand this, it's puzzling that you choose to ignore it.  (I think it's more denial than ignorance!)  The important question you need to ask is, "How LONG is SHORT in my particular game?"  Because when your SHORT time comes to an end, unless you KNOW it has, and you run with the money, you will most likely give back all your winnings in the LONG RUN!  (Unless you hit the Jackpot, which is unlikely.)

              The only NOVEL IDEA you've presented in these Forums is your conjecture that perhaps the settings of your RNG could be confirmed by diversions between the Observed Ratios of the number of winners of various prize categories and the number of Expected winners of those same categories through Chance.  Unfortunately for you, even this is a spurious observation.  If you would take the time to apply your [self proclaimed] prodigious computer programming skills to the task of simulating your preferred game, you would soon learn that even THIS  profound insight, the one of which you are most proud, is, as are all of your filterings and splittings and splicings of digits, well within the Expected Deviations of the flow of Random Stochastic Processes, and as such, IT too, is absolute NONSENSE!

              Try posting your method at this site - see what feedback you get...

              Casino City Times

                RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                United States
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                3972 Posts
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                Posted: February 15, 2011, 7:04 am - IP Logged

                (Sorry rl-randomlogic for the large and colorful type below, which apparently annoys you.)

                (However, some of us like to lean back in our chairs.)

                Completely predictable by Probability, it is not only possible, but highly likely, that people can and will "BEAT THE ODDS" in the SHORT RUN.  You need to understand the concept of Standard Deviation in Stochastic Processes to know why this is true.  Since you claim that you do understand this, it's puzzling that you choose to ignore it.  (I think it's more denial than ignorance!)  The important question you need to ask is, "How LONG is SHORT in my particular game?"  Because when your SHORT time comes to an end, unless you KNOW it has, and you run with the money, you will most likely give back all your winnings in the LONG RUN!  (Unless you hit the Jackpot, which is unlikely.)

                The only NOVEL IDEA you've presented in these Forums is your conjecture that perhaps the settings of your RNG could be confirmed by diversions between the Observed Ratios of the number of winners of various prize categories and the number of Expected winners of those same categories through Chance.  Unfortunately for you, even this is a spurious observation.  If you would take the time to apply your [self proclaimed] prodigious computer programming skills to the task of simulating your preferred game, you would soon learn that even THIS  profound insight, the one of which you are most proud, is, as are all of your filterings and splittings and splicings of digits, well within the Expected Deviations of the flow of Random Stochastic Processes, and as such, IT too, is absolute NONSENSE!

                Try posting your method at this site - see what feedback you get...

                Casino City Times

                jimmy

                I was wondering what took you so long to reply to this post, Standard Deviation in Stochastic Processes,

                now that's something. I have and do run simulations all the time and have been winning for a very long

                time.  How long is short anyway?   All the stats that you quote are based on a random selection; what

                if the drawings are not as random as you believe them to be?  What if I have found something or many

                things in my many years of doing this that gives me an advantage.  Buying a Qp's and expecting to win

                is compatible to two random particles bouncing around with an occasional collision.  You think the lottery

                is so random that nothing can be done and I think that you are wrong.  Remember, my lottery use a RNG

                so balls, stripes, weights, bouncing, paint, letters or any thing else means nothing.  You still don't have 

                a clue and that's the problem.  I am not saying that I can predict what will be drawn day to day but I

                can and do through observation improve my play way beyond what the odds would account for.  This is

                really about how random the lottery is and not about the odds at all.  Don't bother running the chi-sq test

                or frequency distrubition test because I have already done that.  You and your current methods will never

                explain or understand these things. I never included this within my post but I gave others a method

                that is used correctly will win more then random QP's.  I noticed you can't seem to decide on a avatar, 

                maybe you can find a picture of God and use that. 

                 

                RL


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                  Posted: February 15, 2011, 6:46 pm - IP Logged

                  jimmy

                  I was wondering what took you so long to reply to this post, Standard Deviation in Stochastic Processes,

                  now that's something. I have and do run simulations all the time and have been winning for a very long

                  time.  How long is short anyway?   All the stats that you quote are based on a random selection; what

                  if the drawings are not as random as you believe them to be?  What if I have found something or many

                  things in my many years of doing this that gives me an advantage.  Buying a Qp's and expecting to win

                  is compatible to two random particles bouncing around with an occasional collision.  You think the lottery

                  is so random that nothing can be done and I think that you are wrong.  Remember, my lottery use a RNG

                  so balls, stripes, weights, bouncing, paint, letters or any thing else means nothing.  You still don't have 

                  a clue and that's the problem.  I am not saying that I can predict what will be drawn day to day but I

                  can and do through observation improve my play way beyond what the odds would account for.  This is

                  really about how random the lottery is and not about the odds at all.  Don't bother running the chi-sq test

                  or frequency distrubition test because I have already done that.  You and your current methods will never

                  explain or understand these things. I never included this within my post but I gave others a method

                  that is used correctly will win more then random QP's.  I noticed you can't seem to decide on a avatar, 

                  maybe you can find a picture of God and use that. 

                   

                  RL

                    RL-RANDOMLOGIC  PICKS 2, 3, and 4 out of 5 numbers in a (5,39) LOTTO

                  GAME AT A RATE  5  TIMES WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED FROM CHANCE!!!

                                                      (At least this is what he would have us believe.)

                  Here is why I say this.

                  His preferred game is the Missouri Show Me 5, a (5,39) Lotto game.

                  From their website you will learn the following after a few calculations:

                  Category   Odds            Payoff  Expected Value
                   2 / 5   1 in 9.6          $ 1.00    $00.1042     MISSOURI'S *
                   3 / 5   1 in 102.6        $10.00    $00.0975     ODDS FROM
                   4 / 5   1 in 3386.8      $250.00    $00.0738     CHANCE
                                                       $00.2755
                   
                  RL-RANDOMLOGIC claims his positive cash flow does not require a Jackpot win, which is a 1:575757 longshot with a minimum $50,000 prize. So, considering only the 3 prize categories above, by Chance, the Expected Value (EV) of one $1 ticket is the sum of the individual values of these categories, or...
                  EV == $00.2755 == ( $0.1042+0.0975+0.0738),
                  which is about 28¢ on the Dollar.
                   
                  Which tells us that UNTIL you win a 5/5 Jackpot in the Missouri Show Me 5, on average, you will lose approximately 72¢ for every Dollar you spend on tickets.  This of course, would be buying QuickPicks!
                  Now, let's see what RL-RANDOMLOGIC must do to BREAK EVEN.  That's easy.
                  $1 divided by 27.55¢ is a RATIO of 3.63 to 1.0!
                  So, here is a revised (RL-RANDOMLOGIC) BREAK EVEN ODDS Table.
                  Category   Odds            Payoff  Expected Value
                   2 / 5   1 in 2.7          $ 1.00    $00.3782       RL-RANDOMLOGIC'S
                   3 / 5   1 in 28.3         $10.00    $00.3539       BREAK EVEN
                   4 / 5   1 in 933.0       $250.00    $00.2679       ODDS TABLE
                                                       $ 1.00
                  Simply stated, rounding off, to BREAK EVEN without a Jackpot, RL-RANDOMLOGIC expects to have a (2,5) winner (on average) once every 3 draws, a (3,5) winner once every 28 draws, and a (4,5) winner once every 933 draws...
                  TO BREAK EVEN!

                  BUT WAIT!!!
                  RL-RANDOMLOGIC DOES NOT LOSE MONEY, HE MAKES MONEY!!
                  So, let's assume, conservatively, that he beats the odds at a RATE 5 TIMES CHANCE, somewhat better than the 3.6 break even rate. This would give him an Expected Value of $1.38 for each $1.00 ticket purchased. If he bets on average $2000 per year, which is what he alludes to, winning at this 5 Times Chance rate, he would then expect to win back about $2777 by the end of the year, for a net gain of $777. (This might fund one of those weekend vacations he indulges in with his winnings.)
                  It doesn't seem to be worth all the effort.
                  What we have to assume is that RL-RANDOMLOGIC MUST be doing MUCH better than 5-X the Chance Win Rate.
                  Would you agree?
                  RL-RANDOMLOGIC can make CLAIMS all he wants.  UNTIL HE POSTS his 5 or 6 BET RECOMMENDATIONS for SOME (5,39) LOTTO Game, HERE ON LOTTERYPOST.COM, BEFORE THE DRAW, ON EVERY DAY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MONTHS, there is no reason to believe his claims, because they are OUTRAGEOUS!!!
                  Now, we know from past requests that have been made of RL-RANDOMLOGIC that he is squeamish about posting predictions for the game that he plays, the MISSOURI Show Me 5.  So, I SUGGEST THAT RL-RANDOMLOGIC POST 5 BET LINE SUGGESTIONS, for 60 consecutive days for the GEORGIA Fantasy-5, a mechanical ball machine game drawn at 11pm Eastern Time every night. If he feels his method works better in Computerized Draw games, he should feel free to pick another venue.
                  IF HE CAN AVERAGE A WIN RATE THAT BEATS FIVE TIMES CHANCE OVER THESE 60 DAYS, 
                  I WILL GONGRATULATE HIM!!
                  Note to RL-RANDOMLOGIC:
                  Before you react with your typical attack on me and shrug off this public request for proof of your method, don't forget that, even though you had no intention of selling your program, JUST THINK OF THE FLOOD OF EMAILS YOU WILL RECEIVE WITH REQUESTS FOR YOUR PROGRAM IF IT PERFORMS AS YOU CLAIM IT DOES!!  IF AND WHEN THAT HAPPENS, I WOULDN'T BLAME YOU FOR GOING COMMERCIAL WITH IT.  WHY NOT?  YOU WILL HAVE PROVEN ITS EFFICACY.


                    United States
                    Member #93947
                    July 10, 2010
                    2180 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: February 15, 2011, 7:19 pm - IP Logged

                    P.S.  On the subject of Avatars:  You would think that with all the money RL-RANDOMLOGIC must be making in Missouri that he could afford $50 a year for a Gold membership, so he too could express himself with his Avatar! Wink

                      RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                      United States
                      Member #59354
                      March 13, 2008
                      3972 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: February 15, 2011, 9:42 pm - IP Logged

                        RL-RANDOMLOGIC  PICKS 2, 3, and 4 out of 5 numbers in a (5,39) LOTTO

                      GAME AT A RATE  5  TIMES WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED FROM CHANCE!!!

                                                          (At least this is what he would have us believe.)

                      Here is why I say this.

                      His preferred game is the Missouri Show Me 5, a (5,39) Lotto game.

                      From their website you will learn the following after a few calculations:

                      Category   Odds            Payoff  Expected Value
                       2 / 5   1 in 9.6          $ 1.00    $00.1042     MISSOURI'S *
                       3 / 5   1 in 102.6        $10.00    $00.0975     ODDS FROM
                       4 / 5   1 in 3386.8      $250.00    $00.0738     CHANCE
                                                           $00.2755
                       
                      RL-RANDOMLOGIC claims his positive cash flow does not require a Jackpot win, which is a 1:575757 longshot with a minimum $50,000 prize. So, considering only the 3 prize categories above, by Chance, the Expected Value (EV) of one $1 ticket is the sum of the individual values of these categories, or...
                      EV == $00.2755 == ( $0.1042+0.0975+0.0738),
                      which is about 28¢ on the Dollar.
                       
                      Which tells us that UNTIL you win a 5/5 Jackpot in the Missouri Show Me 5, on average, you will lose approximately 72¢ for every Dollar you spend on tickets.  This of course, would be buying QuickPicks!
                      Now, let's see what RL-RANDOMLOGIC must do to BREAK EVEN.  That's easy.
                      $1 divided by 27.55¢ is a RATIO of 3.63 to 1.0!
                      So, here is a revised (RL-RANDOMLOGIC) BREAK EVEN ODDS Table.
                      Category   Odds            Payoff  Expected Value
                       2 / 5   1 in 2.7          $ 1.00    $00.3782       RL-RANDOMLOGIC'S
                       3 / 5   1 in 28.3         $10.00    $00.3539       BREAK EVEN
                       4 / 5   1 in 933.0       $250.00    $00.2679       ODDS TABLE
                                                           $ 1.00
                      Simply stated, rounding off, to BREAK EVEN without a Jackpot, RL-RANDOMLOGIC expects to have a (2,5) winner (on average) once every 3 draws, a (3,5) winner once every 28 draws, and a (4,5) winner once every 933 draws...
                      TO BREAK EVEN!

                      BUT WAIT!!!
                      RL-RANDOMLOGIC DOES NOT LOSE MONEY, HE MAKES MONEY!!
                      So, let's assume, conservatively, that he beats the odds at a RATE 5 TIMES CHANCE, somewhat better than the 3.6 break even rate. This would give him an Expected Value of $1.38 for each $1.00 ticket purchased. If he bets on average $2000 per year, which is what he alludes to, winning at this 5 Times Chance rate, he would then expect to win back about $2777 by the end of the year, for a net gain of $777. (This might fund one of those weekend vacations he indulges in with his winnings.)
                      It doesn't seem to be worth all the effort.
                      What we have to assume is that RL-RANDOMLOGIC MUST be doing MUCH better than 5-X the Chance Win Rate.
                      Would you agree?
                      RL-RANDOMLOGIC can make CLAIMS all he wants.  UNTIL HE POSTS his 5 or 6 BET RECOMMENDATIONS for SOME (5,39) LOTTO Game, HERE ON LOTTERYPOST.COM, BEFORE THE DRAW, ON EVERY DAY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MONTHS, there is no reason to believe his claims, because they are OUTRAGEOUS!!!
                      Now, we know from past requests that have been made of RL-RANDOMLOGIC that he is squeamish about posting predictions for the game that he plays, the MISSOURI Show Me 5.  So, I SUGGEST THAT RL-RANDOMLOGIC POST 5 BET LINE SUGGESTIONS, for 60 consecutive days for the GEORGIA Fantasy-5, a mechanical ball machine game drawn at 11pm Eastern Time every night. If he feels his method works better in Computerized Draw games, he should feel free to pick another venue.
                      IF HE CAN AVERAGE A WIN RATE THAT BEATS FIVE TIMES CHANCE OVER THESE 60 DAYS, 
                      I WILL GONGRATULATE HIM!!
                      Note to RL-RANDOMLOGIC:
                      Before you react with your typical attack on me and shrug off this public request for proof of your method, don't forget that, even though you had no intention of selling your program, JUST THINK OF THE FLOOD OF EMAILS YOU WILL RECEIVE WITH REQUESTS FOR YOUR PROGRAM IF IT PERFORMS AS YOU CLAIM IT DOES!!  IF AND WHEN THAT HAPPENS, I WOULDN'T BLAME YOU FOR GOING COMMERCIAL WITH IT.  WHY NOT?  YOU WILL HAVE PROVEN ITS EFFICACY.

                      Jimmy

                      #1. Wrong again. 

                      #2. I don't play everyday and sometimes go over a month without playing. 

                      #3.  Why would I waste my time playing a game in another state with no hope of winning anything. 

                      #4. I don't spend $2000 per year, EVER. 

                      #5. My average plays per year are around 25 to 35 with average tickets purchased around $500.00

                      #6. you are still clueless. 

                       

                      All the statistics you keep belching up have nothing to do with my play.  Every thing you post is based

                      on picking or making a random selection.  Take the randomness out of the equation and they become

                      meaningless just like you.  I have had many offers for over $100.00 for a copy of  the old dos version

                      and still I have never sold a single copy.  I did however give many copies away for free.  Not for sale

                      now or ever.

                      You keep trying to move the post away from it's original meaning by connecting the 15 year old dos

                      version to what I am using now.  I still use the digits because it requires little or no filtering in it's 

                      current state.  What was posted in my system post will produce if used correctly and the correct digits

                      are played.  This was the claim that I made.   

                      My claims of winnings are not tied to only what is posted but you have to attack me to feel better about

                      yourself.  I was almost fooled into thinking you might have a brain but have since cast that notion aside.

                      If you want to debate the randomness of a rng closed system then maybe you might have something to

                      add but I doubt it.  Your continued insistance on using probability to explain away a system that you don't

                      understand is a bore.  All the JR-High math you use means nothing to me so let me tell you one more time

                      why.

                      I use statistics every day and count on the results but I don't use them to win the lottery.  Because I don't

                      view random the same way as you do then you think all my efforts are in vain.  If what is called random is

                      truly random then I would expect to win no more then the odds would account for +/- some small deviation. 

                      Your problem with my claim stems from the fact that you think that the drawing is random.   You have never

                      once considered even for a moment that maybe it is not as random as you think.  If as I say that it is not

                      compleatly random then the odds that you belch out so often would then mean nothing.  I told you at the

                      very first that I knew what I was doing but you did not have the nessary brain power to figure this out.  Let

                      me point out just how stupid I think you really are.

                      First I made many attemps to prove that staticics will predict the outcome of a random event very well.

                      Next I pointed out many times that I don't think that the draws are completely random in nature.  Any

                      person with half a brain could have put 2 and 2 togeather and come to the conculsion that if the results

                      are different then the expected that something must be off or wrong.  Your brilliant deduction was to call

                      me a phoney and trash my system because I made claims that you could not account for.  You never even

                      for a moment considered that what I said about  the randomness of the game might be the fault.  Take the

                      random element out of the mix and the probability fails. I have said many times that I am not a millionaire

                      yet, this would also mean that I have not compleated the work but continue working on it almost weekly. 

                      I may never solve the problem but I have made much progress which accounts for my results which

                      probability cannot explain.  This is the reason behind my many statements that probability will never help

                      me pick my winning numbers.  The lottery will always produce static results given it is completely random. 

                      I left many clues along the way. I once posted that I had two concerns when posting this system.  The first

                      was that not many would understand and the second was that someone would.  You can trash this all you

                      want but remember this, One day I may report my findings, how will you feel then.  Your post are 

                      meaningless and have provided nothing new or anything that will help anyone win for that matter. 

                      Random Logic

                        RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                        United States
                        Member #59354
                        March 13, 2008
                        3972 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: February 15, 2011, 9:59 pm - IP Logged

                        ps

                        Nothing is truly random.

                        A computer draw or RNG is a artifical attempt at random.

                        How sufficiently random an event is, is a matter of observation.

                        RL


                          United States
                          Member #93947
                          July 10, 2010
                          2180 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: February 15, 2011, 10:02 pm - IP Logged

                          Jimmy

                          #1. Wrong again. 

                          #2. I don't play everyday and sometimes go over a month without playing. 

                          #3.  Why would I waste my time playing a game in another state with no hope of winning anything. 

                          #4. I don't spend $2000 per year, EVER. 

                          #5. My average plays per year are around 25 to 35 with average tickets purchased around $500.00

                          #6. you are still clueless. 

                           

                          All the statistics you keep belching up have nothing to do with my play.  Every thing you post is based

                          on picking or making a random selection.  Take the randomness out of the equation and they become

                          meaningless just like you.  I have had many offers for over $100.00 for a copy of  the old dos version

                          and still I have never sold a single copy.  I did however give many copies away for free.  Not for sale

                          now or ever.

                          You keep trying to move the post away from it's original meaning by connecting the 15 year old dos

                          version to what I am using now.  I still use the digits because it requires little or no filtering in it's 

                          current state.  What was posted in my system post will produce if used correctly and the correct digits

                          are played.  This was the claim that I made.   

                          My claims of winnings are not tied to only what is posted but you have to attack me to feel better about

                          yourself.  I was almost fooled into thinking you might have a brain but have since cast that notion aside.

                          If you want to debate the randomness of a rng closed system then maybe you might have something to

                          add but I doubt it.  Your continued insistance on using probability to explain away a system that you don't

                          understand is a bore.  All the JR-High math you use means nothing to me so let me tell you one more time

                          why.

                          I use statistics every day and count on the results but I don't use them to win the lottery.  Because I don't

                          view random the same way as you do then you think all my efforts are in vain.  If what is called random is

                          truly random then I would expect to win no more then the odds would account for +/- some small deviation. 

                          Your problem with my claim stems from the fact that you think that the drawing is random.   You have never

                          once considered even for a moment that maybe it is not as random as you think.  If as I say that it is not

                          compleatly random then the odds that you belch out so often would then mean nothing.  I told you at the

                          very first that I knew what I was doing but you did not have the nessary brain power to figure this out.  Let

                          me point out just how stupid I think you really are.

                          First I made many attemps to prove that staticics will predict the outcome of a random event very well.

                          Next I pointed out many times that I don't think that the draws are completely random in nature.  Any

                          person with half a brain could have put 2 and 2 togeather and come to the conculsion that if the results

                          are different then the expected that something must be off or wrong.  Your brilliant deduction was to call

                          me a phoney and trash my system because I made claims that you could not account for.  You never even

                          for a moment considered that what I said about  the randomness of the game might be the fault.  Take the

                          random element out of the mix and the probability fails. I have said many times that I am not a millionaire

                          yet, this would also mean that I have not compleated the work but continue working on it almost weekly. 

                          I may never solve the problem but I have made much progress which accounts for my results which

                          probability cannot explain.  This is the reason behind my many statements that probability will never help

                          me pick my winning numbers.  The lottery will always produce static results given it is completely random. 

                          I left many clues along the way. I once posted that I had two concerns when posting this system.  The first

                          was that not many would understand and the second was that someone would.  You can trash this all you

                          want but remember this, One day I may report my findings, how will you feel then.  Your post are 

                          meaningless and have provided nothing new or anything that will help anyone win for that matter. 

                          Random Logic

                          Would someone please correct me if I'm wrong in concluding that the 800+ words above can be summarized in 11 as, "I decline the invitation to post predictions in advance of Draws."

                            RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                            United States
                            Member #59354
                            March 13, 2008
                            3972 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: February 16, 2011, 1:28 am - IP Logged

                            Would someone please correct me if I'm wrong in concluding that the 800+ words above can be summarized in 11 as, "I decline the invitation to post predictions in advance of Draws."

                            I wish someone would explain in two words, what you should to "GO AWAY"


                              United States
                              Member #93947
                              July 10, 2010
                              2180 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: February 16, 2011, 3:56 am - IP Logged

                              "...what you should to..."  ??

                              Sorry, I'm not planning on leaving just yet RL-RANDOMLOGIC.

                              You just can't deal with the hard questions, can you?  You see, you THINK that I don't understand what you're doing, or what you're saying.  You THINK.  You THINK that you know all about statistics and that your methods don't fall within their purview.  You claim that you do very well, but because your method is so complex, requiring so much of the "human element," that it's just not realistic for anyone to expect you to try to prove your success.  The reason you give for this complexity is that your secret proprietary ingredient, if you will, is based on an anomoly that you THINK you've found in the computerized lottery that you play in Missouri.  First of all, even if there is treachery in the IT shop in the Missouri Lottery, I doubt if it is something you can keep track of with your BASE-10 Digit gyrations unless the programmers there are in league with you, because their RNGs are working in a BINARY system in their computers, and you're juggling 0-9.  I notice you don't want to tackle the BASE-20 system in my other Thread.  Doesn't show much promise, does it?

                              But let's give you the benefit of the doubt - let's assume you cracked the code, and can beat the odds in the MO Show Me 5 by at least FIVE times better than what Chance would predict.  (Without hitting the Jackpot, this is what you must do to do better than break even.)  Given these facts, there are questions that trouble me, and they are questions that anyone else here pondering your voracity should ask.

                              1)  If you have TRULY discovered a BUG or a conspiracy in the programming of the Missouri Show Me 5 Lotto, is it not your Civic Duty to notify the appropriate authorities of your discovery, rather than try to expoit it for your own financial gain, even trying to teach others how to profit as well?  I'm not a lawyer, but there might very well be penalties awaiting you, as you might be committing fraud with your efforts in this enterprise.

                              2)  Assuming you're not Civic Minded, and with question 1) above in mind, what causes you to be in a near state of obsession trying to convince me and anyone else reading here that you are able to exploit a weakness in the MO Lottery, rather than quietly going about your [possibly illegal] business, perhaps increasing your stakes?

                              3)  Your reticence regarding publishing your picks in advance is understandable when considering question 1), but doesn't seem to fit with question 2).  Could it be that Q1 and Q2 don't apply at all and that the reason you don't want to risk publishing picks is because you KNOW, from past experience, that you can have long periods of losses, or, at best, no wins?  Could it also be that you KNOW that if it were not for your $25K win you would be in the hole, as probability predicts?

                              In May of 2010, you posted:

                              http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/214099/1661732

                              "Back in 99 won 25,000 taxes paid  and  have won over 100ea  4 of 5 prizes and 3ea 5 of 6 prizes. but it

                              seems something changed and my system took a dive. Not doing too well now. haven't hit even a 3 of 5

                              in over two months. My system plays digits with no reguard to the actual numbers.  Maybe someday I

                              will post it"

                              I really believe you should think back to the case reported here in the Lottery News Forum about the man who discovered exploitable conditions in some of the scratch off games.  He chose the right path; he did his Civic Duty and notified authorities.  Don't you think you should too?

                              --Jimmy4164

                              P.S.  Why not splurge and spring for a Gold membership?  I'll send you some cool Avatars.


                                 
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