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PowerBall finally may has the edge it's been seeking

Topic closed. 122 replies. Last post 4 years ago by LottoBoner.

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RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
19816 Posts
Offline
Posted: May 31, 2012, 4:56 pm - IP Logged

Yes RJ,

And this is exactly why we need a BACK TESTING service here at LP. I believe a group of 5000 PB lines wheeled with all the bonus balls would beat out 175,000 RNG lines every time. Not only would the smaller tier hits be better, but they would hit the JP more often.

Any serious lottery player probably has a lottery program with data files of the games he plays that can import text files of other lotteries, wheels or randomly generated lines and compare them.

Comparing 175,000 lines with the average lottery file can probably be done best using your home computer.   Besides it doesn't prove anything if the size of the number pool doesn't change because the overall odds of a win depends on the amount of numbers in the pool and when you remove numbers from the pool you risk removing the winning numbers.

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
             Evil Looking       

    Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
    New Jersey
    United States
    Member #99032
    October 18, 2010
    1439 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: May 31, 2012, 5:12 pm - IP Logged

    While I still think Powerball made the right move (most people who aren't buying powerball tickets are playing Mega Millions instead, so there's little lost revenue, and when we do see huge jackpots, I'm almost certain more people will play.  Plus, the increased ticket sales to Mega has allowed it's JP to grow.  Variance has simply kept Powerball low and allowed Mega Millions to grow a couple times.  Just wait a couple years, I'm almost sure we'll have a few big Powerball Jackpots), but I do think that their is a demand for a lottery game with a smaller price.  At least, a void in supply.

     

    I'd play a lottery game that allowed simple full wheeling, if the ticket price was 10 cents or a nickel a line.  Hell they could just fix the payouts, and allow the players to pick their own wagers, similar to Keno in casinos.

     

    To make each ticket cost a multiple of a dollar, they could simply post on the playing card that X numbers chosen creates Y lines plus Z Quick Picks for a cost of A.  They could then print out the ticket with a prize grid based on the amount of numbers matched in your wheel, with the QPs right under that.

     

    I don't play much lottery anymore, but with a decent prize grid, I think I'd be willing to put a few dollars down on this game occasionally.

      Avatar
      NASHVILLE, TENN
      United States
      Member #33372
      February 20, 2006
      1044 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: May 31, 2012, 8:07 pm - IP Logged

      Anybody thinking of spending 350-700 dollars on a lottery game is a dumbass. Like yourself. I hope you never win. Chances are you won't :)

      I somewhat disagree.  I can see where a person who chooses QP would be foolish to spend that kind of money.   I can also see where a person who has developed a profitable winning algorithym would be foolish NOT spending that kind of money if his parameters indicate a win.

      The decision one must make depends entirely upon what facts they have at their disposal.


        United States
        Member #116268
        September 7, 2011
        20244 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: May 31, 2012, 9:40 pm - IP Logged

        I somewhat disagree.  I can see where a person who chooses QP would be foolish to spend that kind of money.   I can also see where a person who has developed a profitable winning algorithym would be foolish NOT spending that kind of money if his parameters indicate a win.

        The decision one must make depends entirely upon what facts they have at their disposal.

        Thats ok, PlayToLose is just a poor sport. He dont get out of the house much, so he dont play lotto too often.


          United States
          Member #116268
          September 7, 2011
          20244 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: May 31, 2012, 9:56 pm - IP Logged

          Any serious lottery player probably has a lottery program with data files of the games he plays that can import text files of other lotteries, wheels or randomly generated lines and compare them.

          Comparing 175,000 lines with the average lottery file can probably be done best using your home computer.   Besides it doesn't prove anything if the size of the number pool doesn't change because the overall odds of a win depends on the amount of numbers in the pool and when you remove numbers from the pool you risk removing the winning numbers.

          Ive heard that "the overall odds are the same" argument 100 times. I just think there is a way to "crack the code" and this may be a good place to start.

          My theory is 1 line with all bonus balls gives that line TRUE 3.9 million to 1 odds.

          Where 46 random lines gives 175 million to 1 on each line separately, so even if you play 100 random lines you odds are still 175 million to one. Just like a slot jackpot that's 1500 to 1 odds. Even if you play 3000 times your odds on the next pull are still 1500 to 1.

          The only way to escape the action of the RNG would be to take a "block" of generated selectios which is imposable to do on a slot. But not imposable on lotto.

          This could be the REAL reason PB changed to $2. It makes it imposable to buy a large "block" of lines.

            RedStang's avatar - tallman zps6gf4inoc.jpg
            NY
            United States
            Member #121961
            January 21, 2012
            3157 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: May 31, 2012, 10:04 pm - IP Logged

            Had a strange day like Mcginnin. Stopped at a lucky gas station. This guy asked for 1 pb/w power play. The clerk (new latino girl)was clueless and printed just a 2$ pb. The guy did'nt want it, so i grabbed it. I had the guy go behind the counter and show her how to choose the power play option. Pretty funny but i hope this is good luck. Heres those nums  3 32 34 46 51--17

              meetoo's avatar - DiscoBallGlowing
              Indiana
              United States
              Member #124862
              March 21, 2012
              41 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: May 31, 2012, 11:00 pm - IP Logged

              Ive heard that "the overall odds are the same" argument 100 times. I just think there is a way to "crack the code" and this may be a good place to start.

              My theory is 1 line with all bonus balls gives that line TRUE 3.9 million to 1 odds.

              Where 46 random lines gives 175 million to 1 on each line separately, so even if you play 100 random lines you odds are still 175 million to one. Just like a slot jackpot that's 1500 to 1 odds. Even if you play 3000 times your odds on the next pull are still 1500 to 1.

              The only way to escape the action of the RNG would be to take a "block" of generated selectios which is imposable to do on a slot. But not imposable on lotto.

              This could be the REAL reason PB changed to $2. It makes it imposable to buy a large "block" of lines.

              "My theory is 1 line with all bonus balls gives that line TRUE 3.9 million to 1 odds."

              I agree with you Ronnie regarding the better odds when playing all of the power balls. I've actually played a state lotto utilizing this theory. It's only a matter of time : ) I think your on the right track, good luck.

              May You Prosper and be in Health!

                Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                Zeta Reticuli Star System
                United States
                Member #30470
                January 17, 2006
                10344 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: May 31, 2012, 11:27 pm - IP Logged

                There sure are a lot more theories than there are jackpots paid out.

                Just an observation.

                Lep

                Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                Lep

                There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                  Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
                  Texas
                  United States
                  Member #86154
                  January 30, 2010
                  1648 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: June 1, 2012, 12:14 am - IP Logged

                  There sure are a lot more theories than there are jackpots paid out.

                  Just an observation.

                  Lep

                  'Toss, you got that right! These lottery commissions are literally playing games while allowing the games to be played. That is, they've only raised the starting amount on the jackpots while raising the prices to play 'em. Nothing, and I mean ABSOLUTELY NOTHING has been done to actually increase the ACTUAL ODDS for more players to winBS. This would entail either less numbers to match for a higher given prize, less total numbers altogether, or a payout for a "scattered match" of sorts.

                  Other than that, I'm still scratchin' my a** and my head at the same time while tryin' to figure how they've made it betterWhat? They're marketing higher initial payouts which has nothing to do with the same overall odds of winning on the same game.No Nod More money + Same odds = More out of your pocket and more into their's. Maybe I missed something along the way but, this is how I interpreted the so say change for better odds.

                  L.L.


                    United States
                    Member #116268
                    September 7, 2011
                    20244 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: June 1, 2012, 12:35 am - IP Logged

                    'Toss, you got that right! These lottery commissions are literally playing games while allowing the games to be played. That is, they've only raised the starting amount on the jackpots while raising the prices to play 'em. Nothing, and I mean ABSOLUTELY NOTHING has been done to actually increase the ACTUAL ODDS for more players to winBS. This would entail either less numbers to match for a higher given prize, less total numbers altogether, or a payout for a "scattered match" of sorts.

                    Other than that, I'm still scratchin' my a** and my head at the same time while tryin' to figure how they've made it betterWhat? They're marketing higher initial payouts which has nothing to do with the same overall odds of winning on the same game.No Nod More money + Same odds = More out of your pocket and more into their's. Maybe I missed something along the way but, this is how I interpreted the so say change for better odds.

                    L.L.

                    Absolutely right LL,

                    What they have done in reality is cut their risk exposure in half. And have used their advertising dollars to spin it as a positive for the players. Should come as no surprise as the business climate for the last 3 years has been one of cutting back on ALL risk, ALL expenses and ALL plans for expansion.

                    When players play HALF the lines they normally play....... Odds of winning are cut in HALF........

                      Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
                      Texas
                      United States
                      Member #86154
                      January 30, 2010
                      1648 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: June 1, 2012, 1:15 am - IP Logged

                      RJOh, Sir, you're absolutely and positively correct on this account. They most definitely have THE EDGE they've been seeking...even more so than before. Only change is that more people have been brain washed into spending more of their money on the same odds for slightly increased payouts.Dupe Alert

                      Check any tickets you may have prior to this supposed change and look at the odds, okay. Then, look at the odds on any tickets after this change and see if they're the same. Please let me know, although I already know the answer. Can't change the odds if they don't change the number count, or, the amount of numbers to be matched for a relating prize amount. Just tryin' to make it plain for ya, buddy, and hopefully save you some money.


                      L.L.

                        Avatar
                        NY
                        United States
                        Member #23835
                        October 16, 2005
                        3474 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: June 1, 2012, 1:47 am - IP Logged

                        Ive heard that "the overall odds are the same" argument 100 times. I just think there is a way to "crack the code" and this may be a good place to start.

                        My theory is 1 line with all bonus balls gives that line TRUE 3.9 million to 1 odds.

                        Where 46 random lines gives 175 million to 1 on each line separately, so even if you play 100 random lines you odds are still 175 million to one. Just like a slot jackpot that's 1500 to 1 odds. Even if you play 3000 times your odds on the next pull are still 1500 to 1.

                        The only way to escape the action of the RNG would be to take a "block" of generated selectios which is imposable to do on a slot. But not imposable on lotto.

                        This could be the REAL reason PB changed to $2. It makes it imposable to buy a large "block" of lines.

                        Your odds are determined by the number of chances you have, not how you choose the chances.  46 tickets gives you the same odds whether you play all 46 bonus balls, 1 ticket starting with each number from 1 to 46, or any other  method of choosing 46 tickets.

                          Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
                          New Jersey
                          United States
                          Member #99032
                          October 18, 2010
                          1439 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: June 1, 2012, 3:04 am - IP Logged

                          RJOh, Sir, you're absolutely and positively correct on this account. They most definitely have THE EDGE they've been seeking...even more so than before. Only change is that more people have been brain washed into spending more of their money on the same odds for slightly increased payouts.Dupe Alert

                          Check any tickets you may have prior to this supposed change and look at the odds, okay. Then, look at the odds on any tickets after this change and see if they're the same. Please let me know, although I already know the answer. Can't change the odds if they don't change the number count, or, the amount of numbers to be matched for a relating prize amount. Just tryin' to make it plain for ya, buddy, and hopefully save you some money.


                          L.L.

                          Didn't they remove a few Powerballs when they changed it?

                           

                          The odds were lowered, but they are still astronomical.  I believe I remember reading that the house edge was slightly lowered, but that the overall expected loss was higher b/c a ticket doubled in price.


                            United States
                            Member #124493
                            March 14, 2012
                            7023 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: June 1, 2012, 4:52 am - IP Logged

                            Had a strange day like Mcginnin. Stopped at a lucky gas station. This guy asked for 1 pb/w power play. The clerk (new latino girl)was clueless and printed just a 2$ pb. The guy did'nt want it, so i grabbed it. I had the guy go behind the counter and show her how to choose the power play option. Pretty funny but i hope this is good luck. Heres those nums  3 32 34 46 51--17

                            in spanish...the feminine is expressed with an A

                            hate to be a stickler but it was a new LATINA girl...wow...you guys are so superstitious...

                            all this talk about lucky mistake tickets could be propoganda promulgated by the Lottery Gods...so that they dont have to eat it the ticket...

                            anyway...good luck stang...remember me when you win!!Jester Laugh

                            I have to say...those numbers are hideous...

                            With the 9 10 hitting i would expect next a  6  7  or 8...

                            specifically  7  8  is primed to hit again...


                              United States
                              Member #124493
                              March 14, 2012
                              7023 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: June 1, 2012, 4:58 am - IP Logged

                              here are the last 20 drawings of powerball...

                              read from top to bottom...pink is HOT...i colored some neon greens as very possible...

                              i will not be playing powerball until  500 million...good luck players!!

                              58 and 59 both look hot...but they are not show here...because it just does not fit!!!

                              3/24/2012

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                              -4

                              -4

                              -6

                              -41

                              -4

                              -2

                              -32

                              -3

                              -5

                              -4

                              -1

                              -17

                              -34

                              -20

                              -1

                              -6

                              0

                              -11

                              -7

                              -1

                              -10

                              -8

                              -10

                              -23

                              0

                              0

                              -13

                              -2

                              -1

                              -5

                              -7

                              -3

                              -5

                              -62

                              -3

                              -9

                              -2

                              -21

                              -11

                              -8

                              -11

                              -11

                              5/2/2012

                              234

                              7

                              8

                              33

                              38

                              50

                              -8

                              -39

                              -33

                              -2

                              -7

                              -3

                              0

                              0

                              -46

                              -23

                              -10

                              -16

                              -7

                              -5

                              -5

                              -5

                              -7

                              -42

                              -5

                              -3

                              -33

                              -4

                              -6

                              -5

                              -2

                              -18

                              -35

                              -21

                              -2

                              -7

                              -1

                              -12

                              0

                              -2

                              -11

                              -9

                              -11

                              0

                              -1

                              -1

                              -14

                              -3

                              -2

                              -6

                              -8

                              -4

                              -6

                              -63

                              -4

                              0

                              -3

                              -22

                              -12

                              -9

                              -12

                              -12

                              5/5/2012

                              235

                              9

                              12

                              20

                              44

                              59

                              -9

                              -40

                              -34

                              -3

                              -8

                              -4

                              -1

                              -1

                              0

                              -24

                              -11

                              0

                              -8

                              -6

                              -6

                              -6

                              -8

                              -43

                              -6

                              0

                              -34

                              -5

                              -7

                              -6

                              -3

                              -19

                              -36

                              -22

                              -3

                              -8

                              -2

                              -13

                              -1

                              -3

                              -12

                              -10

                              -12

                              -1

                              -2

                              -2

                              -15

                              -4

                              -3

                              0

                              -9

                              -5

                              -7

                              -64

                              -5

                              -1

                              -4

                              -23

                              -13

                              -10

                              -13

                              -13

                              5/9/2012

                              236

                              1

                              7

                              11

                              55

                              56

                              0

                              -41

                              -35

                              -4

                              -9

                              -5

                              0

                              -2

                              -1

                              -25

                              0

                              -1

                              -9

                              -7

                              -7

                              -7

                              -9

                              -44

                              -7

                              -1

                              -35

                              -6

                              -8

                              -7

                              -4

                              -20

                              -37

                              -23

                              -4

                              -9

                              -3

                              -14

                              -2

                              -4

                              -13

                              -11

                              -13

                              -2

                              -3

                              -3

                              -16

                              -5

                              -4

                              -1

                              -10

                              -6

                              -8

                              -65

                              -6

                              -2

                              -5

                              -24

                              -14

                              -11

                              0

                              0

                              5/12/2012

                              237

                              10

                              24

                              35

                              53

                              58

                              -1

                              -42

                              -36

                              -5

                              -10

                              -6

                              -1

                              -3

                              -2

                              0

                              -1

                              -2

                              -10

                              -8

                              -8

                              -8

                              -10

                              -45

                              -8

                              -2

                              -36

                              -7

                              -9

                              0

                              -5

                              -21

                              -38

                              -24

                              -5

                              -10

                              -4

                              -15

                              -3

                              -5

                              0

                              -12

                              -14

                              -3

                              -4

                              -4

                              -17

                              -6

                              -5

                              -2

                              -11

                              -7

                              -9

                              -66

                              -7

                              -3

                              -6

                              -25

                              0

                              -12

                              -1

                              -1

                              5/16/2012

                              238

                              3

                              7

                              21

                              28

                              43

                              -2

                              -43

                              0

                              -6

                              -11

                              -7

                              0

                              -4

                              -3

                              -1

                              -2

                              -3

                              -11

                              -9

                              -9

                              -9

                              -11

                              -46

                              -9

                              -3

                              0

                              -8

                              -10

                              -1

                              -6

                              -22

                              -39

                              0

                              -6

                              -11

                              -5

                              -16

                              -4

                              -6

                              -1

                              -13

                              -15

                              -4

                              -5

                              -5

                              -18

                              -7

                              0

                              -3

                              -12

                              -8

                              -10

                              -67

                              -8

                              -4

                              -7

                              -26

                              -1

                              -13

                              -2

                              -2

                              5/19/2012

                              239

                              8

                              13

                              35

                              46

                              51

                              -3

                              -44

                              -1

                              -7

                              -12

                              -8

                              -1

                              0

                              -4

                              -2

                              -3

                              -4

                              0

                              -10

                              -10

                              -10

                              -12

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                              -10

                              -4

                              -1

                              -9

                              -11

                              -2

                              -7

                              -23

                              -40

                              -1

                              -7

                              -12

                              -6

                              -17

                              -5

                              -7

                              0

                              -14

                              -16

                              -5

                              -6

                              -6

                              -19

                              -8

                              -1

                              -4

                              -13

                              0

                              -11

                              -68

                              -9

                              -5

                              0

                              -27

                              -2

                              -14

                              -3

                              -3

                              5/23/2012

                              240

                              4

                              7

                              26

                              53

                              59

                              -4

                              -45

                              -2

                              0

                              -13

                              -9

                              0

                              -1

                              -5

                              -3

                              -4

                              -5

                              -1

                              -11

                              -11

                              -11

                              -13

                              -48

                              -11

                              -5

                              -2

                              -10

                              -12

                              -3

                              -8

                              0

                              -41

                              -2

                              -8

                              -13

                              -7

                              -18

                              -6

                              -8

                              -1

                              -15

                              -17

                              -6

                              -7

                              -7

                              -20

                              -9

                              -2

                              -5

                              -14

                              -1

                              -12

                              -69

                              -10

                              -6

                              -1

                              -28

                              0

                              -15

                              -4

                              -4

                              5/26/2012

                              241

                              13

                              14

                              41

                              49

                              59

                              -5

                              -46

                              -3

                              -1

                              -14

                              -10

                              -1

                              -2

                              -6

                              -4

                              -5

                              -6

                              0

                              0

                              -12

                              -12

                              -14

                              -49

                              -12

                              -6

                              -3

                              -11

                              -13

                              -4

                              -9

                              -1

                              -42

                              -3

                              -9

                              -14

                              -8

                              -19

                              -7

                              -9

                              -2

                              -16

                              -18

                              -7

                              -8

                              -8

                              0

                              -10

                              -3

                              -6

                              -15

                              -2

                              -13

                              -70

                              0

                              -7

                              -2

                              -29

                              -1

                              -16

                              -5

                              -5

                              5/30/2012

                              242

                              9

                              10

                              24

                              52

                              56

                              -6

                              -47

                              -4

                              -2

                              -15

                              -11

                              -2

                              -3

                              0

                              0

                              -6

                              -7

                              -1

                              -1

                              -13

                              -13

                              -15

                              -50

                              -13

                              -7

                              -4

                              -12

                              -14

                              0

                              -10

                              -2

                              -43

                              -4

                              -10

                              -15

                              -9

                              -20

                              -8

                              -10

                              -3

                              -17

                              -19

                              -8

                              -9

                              -9

                              -1

                              -11

                              -4

                              -7

                              -16

                              -3

                              -14

                              -71

                              -1

                              -8

                              -3

                              0

                              -2

                              -17

                              -6

                              0

                              6/2/12

                              243

                              ?

                              ?

                              ?

                              ?

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                              36

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                              46

                              47

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                              51

                              52

                              53

                              54

                              55

                              56