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Quote: Originally posted by mediabrat on Jan 29, 2013
"Good guessing" does nobody but you any good, not if you're just pulling numbers out of thin air. Informed guessing might be useful, but I haven't seen you put forth any ideas on what consistutes an informed guess. (Besides, you can't beat random, but since we passed that exit ages ago, we might as well not even mention it.)
You asked me the question, but we could just as easily ask the same of you: What makes you think your personal defintion of "good guessing" is a universally accepted one?
And your constant insistence on bringing up a project that I abandoned MONTHS ago -- and, for the umpteenth time, a project that was NOT attempting to win a jackpot, no matter how many times you say otherwise -- proves that that you are completely and utterly obsessed with me. Still bitter that I refused to be your personal programming slave? I see you managed to convince Stack to carry your water, though; how much is that costing you?
Are you busy frantically typing anther "mad-scientist" post for us to laugh at? Did you really just say that?
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Perhaps boney can help you with statistics. He is very good with that. I would like to see your stats. Perhaps it could shed some light on the discussion. You could prove how consistent QPs hit 5 of 5.
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Quote: Originally posted by Ronnie316 on Jan 29, 2013
Statistically you should have hit 5 of 5 every 21.7 draws no matter how hard you were "not trying to win"
Considering I decided it was a waste of time long before I got to 21 draws*, your attempt at using statistics to disparage me is, like everything else you do, an abject failure.
* Not to mention the seven-tenths of a 22nd draw; how do you accomplish that, anyway? Draw three balls and cut the fourth in half?
upstate NY United States
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At any rate, now that you've fully admitted that this thread was never a legitimate lottery discussion, that it isn't about trying to help anyone win anything, and that it exists merely so that you can pump your own tires, there's no reason to keep going here. If the only things you have to offer are dreams and "positive energy flow" (which I'm fairly certain you originally ripped off of Thrifty in an attempt to mock him), perhaps you should petition Todd to have this moved into the Mystical forum where it belongs.
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Quote: Originally posted by Boney526 on Jan 28, 2013
"Compared to playing MM or PB, the edge is tiny yet millions play both games every week. You said you don't play games with larger edges, but aren't you sort of ignoring why people play the jackpot games?"
Not ignoring, that's why I said that better depends on an individual's preferences, but I avoid most of those games (Let It Ride, Keno, etc.) due to the much larger house edges.
The house edge only applies to any winnings. You'll win more hands playing the better percentage money payoff games, but one bet probably can't cover your losses. The jackpot game players betting the same amount every hand and can cover all their losses in just one hand. The odds against me catching a 7-spot were probably about 11,000 to 1, but the overall odds were much better because I could get a payoff by matching 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 of the numbers I played too. I played a $1 3-spot, a $1 4-spot, combined them and played a $1 7-spot.
Though I knew I could win over $8000, it was more likely that if I had a nice hit, it would be the 3-spot for $42 and enough to cover my bet and pay for my meal.
I'm running a test using the prediction board to see if it's possible to match the overall odds of a game by using a wheel. Last month I was 1% over and so far this month I'm 0.5% under. I've proved I can get enough hits, but the quality of the hits isn't enough to over come the house edge. You're basically doing the same thing by playing the higher percentage casino games, but can you get that one quality hit that could make an overall difference between winning and losing?
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Quote: Originally posted by mediabrat on Jan 29, 2013
And that is why this entire thread, and you by association, is a complete and utter fraud. "I get better odds because I say so." No mathematical facts, no reproducible methods, just raw, unfiltered EGO.
"I get better odds because I say so." No mathematical facts, no reproducible methods, just raw, unfiltered EGO."
The fact 28 numbers are more than 25 numbers proves a group of 28 numbers can get more than 1 five number match in 39 drawings. And there is nothing profound by saying it's difficult at best to reproduce a 5 + 1 hit when everybody already knows it.
Do you have anything but negativity to add to this discussion?
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Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Jan 29, 2013
The house edge only applies to any winnings. You'll win more hands playing the better percentage money payoff games, but one bet probably can't cover your losses. The jackpot game players betting the same amount every hand and can cover all their losses in just one hand. The odds against me catching a 7-spot were probably about 11,000 to 1, but the overall odds were much better because I could get a payoff by matching 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 of the numbers I played too. I played a $1 3-spot, a $1 4-spot, combined them and played a $1 7-spot.
Though I knew I could win over $8000, it was more likely that if I had a nice hit, it would be the 3-spot for $42 and enough to cover my bet and pay for my meal.
I'm running a test using the prediction board to see if it's possible to match the overall odds of a game by using a wheel. Last month I was 1% over and so far this month I'm 0.5% under. I've proved I can get enough hits, but the quality of the hits isn't enough to over come the house edge. You're basically doing the same thing by playing the higher percentage casino games, but can you get that one quality hit that could make an overall difference between winning and losing?
(I don't know what you mean by the house edge only applies to winnings. The house edge applies to the amount wagered. But I'm sure you know that and I'm just misinterpretting that sentence, so I'll move one...)
First of all, I recommend others play low house edge games if they ask my opinion. I know that many gamblers like the idea of a big payoff, and are willing to make large house edge bets with small amounts of money. There's nothing inherently wrong with that. People have different preferences, but IMO, there are games with large enough payouts and low enough house edges that I'd pass over Keno in a heartbeat if I was planning on gambling at a disadvantage.
However, I don't gamble very often. I've been to Turning Stone Casino, where you can play without being 21, but I'll be turning 21 in a few months. The second reason is that there are honestly pretty much no chances to gamble at an advantage, but that should broaden up when I turn 21. I don't play games for a chance at a huge payout, nor do I play games for fun (although I do find some of them fun.) I do so purely to find an edge and grind it out. That's not exciting to most gamblers, but I enjoy the challenge.
So I aim to accomplish that through Poker. As I've mentioned before, I started gambling with the lottery and after taking a required statistics course (could have done Calculus instead, but chose Stat,) I began studying the math behind gambling. I moved on to learn to count cards (a skill I will probably never use) as a hobby and that was a good starting point. I'm now studying No Limit Hold 'Em (specifcally tournament strategy) - and I think it is by far my favorite game to play.
"You're basically doing the same thing by playing the higher percentage casino games, but can you get that one quality hit that could make an overall difference between winning and losing?"
So to answer that question, I would have to first point out that I am not playing games with a house edge at all. At least my goal is to play games with a player edge - and not games that the casinos would ban me for. That usually limits me to trying to play Poker stronger than other players do, and grind out a profit dealing with the Variance (Standard Deviation) as it comes. If I can do that succesfully, then it won't be about that one huge hit that makes the difference between winning and losing in a negative expectation game. It will be about managing that same risk, so that my positive expectation game has as few downwards swings as possible.
TL;DR
1) If someone asks, I recommend low edge games.
2) There are some low edge games with high payouts out there, which I'd pick over Keno.
3) I don't gamble much right now, and am trying to only gamble at an advantage.
4) Point 3 basically leads me to play pnly poker, which I am studying.
5) Since I have an edge, I am not reliant on a big payoff to net me a win, instead I am reliant on my ability to manage the risk and prevent huge swings.
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Quote: Originally posted by rdgrnr on Jan 29, 2013
Nancy,
If your last two posts were meant for Ronnie, why was the lion's share of the body about me?
You know, rdgrnr this and rdgrnrthat, in distinctive pastels and frilly font.
You're preaching to the choir telling me that everybody is free to play however they wish. That's what I told you, remember? And your whole purpose here is to tell people how stupid it is to play the lottery anyway. So what's your point? Are you the Carrie Nation of gambling or what? I don't get it.
Why do you feel the need to be so confrontational about how people play the lottery?
Say your piece and move on.
Or you can continue insisting that everybody do things your way and just leave me out of it.
But I don't think you can because you're obsessed with me for some reason.
Which is really creepy.
Why don't you give it up?
Anyone with half a brain who reads my posts and observes the responses I get can see who is being "confrontational" here. The title of this thread is, "Do some number combinations have better odds?" This is a question. My answer, NO, has been asserted with attempts to prove my position through evidence - theoretical, and simulated. Rather than respond to my evidence rationally, you and others become CONFRONTATIONAL!
I may be "controversial," but this is much different than confrontational.
Anyone reading my posts will also see that your claim I feel it is stupid to play the lottery is also ridiculous. Considering your modest means up thar' in them hills, I might spend more on the lottery than you do. I don't need BETTER ODDS to be entertained by the lottery, especially enjoying the fun of discussing with friends what to do with a big win.
As for being obsessed with you: there is a mountain of evidence out there that people who are preoccupied with homosexuality to the extent that they feel compelled to make homophobic remarks and references as often as you do, usually are uncertain of their own sexuality. The fact that you make these remarks and references in attempts to denigrate or belittle other people should offend any gay people browsing here. Remember, every new paid membership here is a further guarantee that you will continue to have a place to volunteer your time.
Louisiana United States
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Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on Jan 29, 2013
Why don't you give it up?
Anyone with half a brain who reads my posts and observes the responses I get can see who is being "confrontational" here. The title of this thread is, "Do some number combinations have better odds?" This is a question. My answer, NO, has been asserted with attempts to prove my position through evidence - theoretical, and simulated. Rather than respond to my evidence rationally, you and others become CONFRONTATIONAL!
I may be "controversial," but this is much different than confrontational.
Anyone reading my posts will also see that your claim I feel it is stupid to play the lottery is also ridiculous. Considering your modest means up thar' in them hills, I might spend more on the lottery than you do. I don't need BETTER ODDS to be entertained by the lottery, especially enjoying the fun of discussing with friends what to do with a big win.
As for being obsessed with you: there is a mountain of evidence out there that people who are preoccupied with homosexuality to the extent that they feel compelled to make homophobic remarks and references as often as you do, usually are uncertain of their own sexuality. The fact that you make these remarks and references in attempts to denigrate or belittle other people should offend any gay people browsing here. Remember, every new paid membership here is a further guarantee that you will continue to have a place to volunteer your time.
--Jimmy4164
Jimmy4146 ,
If you feel that playing the Lottery is ridiculus . Why you keep Posting on Lottery Post ? You will not change anyones mind about playing the games . It really does not matter about the information you have posted . You're just being a hindrance to Lottery Post Members . I say " Yes " their is a way to Win in these game . It can be done and has been done many times over and over !!!! It's just a matter of the right System, Theory or Method that can and will Produce wins consistently and accurately .Example below on a system that works that Proves that some number combination have better ODDS with the right System , Theory or Method for game play .
Monday, January 28, 2013
1-2-18-36-38
Next 4 to 6 Draws : 01/23/13 thru 01/26/13 or 01/28/13
The Hall Of The Mountain Kings Tennessee United States
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April 28, 2009
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Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on Jan 29, 2013
Why don't you give it up?
Anyone with half a brain who reads my posts and observes the responses I get can see who is being "confrontational" here. The title of this thread is, "Do some number combinations have better odds?" This is a question. My answer, NO, has been asserted with attempts to prove my position through evidence - theoretical, and simulated. Rather than respond to my evidence rationally, you and others become CONFRONTATIONAL!
I may be "controversial," but this is much different than confrontational.
Anyone reading my posts will also see that your claim I feel it is stupid to play the lottery is also ridiculous. Considering your modest means up thar' in them hills, I might spend more on the lottery than you do. I don't need BETTER ODDS to be entertained by the lottery, especially enjoying the fun of discussing with friends what to do with a big win.
As for being obsessed with you: there is a mountain of evidence out there that people who are preoccupied with homosexuality to the extent that they feel compelled to make homophobic remarks and references as often as you do, usually are uncertain of their own sexuality. The fact that you make these remarks and references in attempts to denigrate or belittle other people should offend any gay people browsing here. Remember, every new paid membership here is a further guarantee that you will continue to have a place to volunteer your time.
--Jimmy4164
Now you've gone from irrational and obsessed to hysterical and frenzied.
I don't know what you want, I don't know what to tell you and I don't know why you keep dragging me into your drama.
I neither know nor care what if any proclivities or preferences you may or may not have in any area of your life - not my business - not interested - just don't care.
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Quote: Originally posted by CajunWin4 on Jan 30, 2013
Jimmy4146 ,
If you feel that playing the Lottery is ridiculus . Why you keep Posting on Lottery Post ? You will not change anyones mind about playing the games . It really does not matter about the information you have posted . You're just being a hindrance to Lottery Post Members . I say " Yes " their is a way to Win in these game . It can be done and has been done many times over and over !!!! It's just a matter of the right System, Theory or Method that can and will Produce wins consistently and accurately .Example below on a system that works that Proves that some number combination have better ODDS with the right System , Theory or Method for game play .
Monday, January 28, 2013
1-2-18-36-38
Next 4 to 6 Draws : 01/23/13 thru 01/26/13 or 01/28/13
1 - 4 - 16 - 17 - 37
1 - 4 - 17 - 18 - 36 2 out 5
1 - 9 - 16 - 25 - 26
1 - 9 - 16 - 26 - 27
1 - 9 - 16 - 26 - 35
1 - 9 - 17 - 18 - 36 3 out 5
1 - 9 - 17 - 26 - 36 2 out 5
1 - 9 - 18 - 27 - 28 2 out 5
1 - 9 - 18 - 28 - 29 2 out 5
1 - 9 - 18 - 28 - 37 2 out 5
1 - 9 - 25 - 26 - 36 2 out 5
1 - 9 - 26 - 27 - 36 2 out 5
1 - 9 - 26 - 35 - 36 2 out 5
1 - 9 - 26 - 36 - 37 2 out 5
1 - 9 - 27 - 28 - 38 2 out 5
1 - 9 - 28 - 29 - 38 2 out 5
1 - 9 - 28 - 37 - 38 2 out 5
1 - 11 - 16 - 27 - 28
1 - 11 - 16 - 28 - 29
1 - 11 - 17 - 18 - 36 3 oot 5
1 - 11 - 25 - 26 - 38 2 out 5
1 - 11 - 26 - 27 - 38 2 out 5
Bonus Sets :
1 - 11 - 26 - 37 - 38 2 out 5
1 - 16 - 17 - 18 - 35 2 out 5
1 - 16 - 17 - 18 - 36 3 out 5
1 - 16 - 18 - 35 - 36 3 out 5
1 - 17 - 18 - 25 - 36 3 out 5
1 - 17 - 18 - 26 - 36 3 out 5
1 - 17 - 18 - 27 - 36 3 out 5
1 - 17 - 18 - 28 - 36 3 out 5
1 - 17 - 18 - 29 - 36 3 out 5
1 - 17 - 18 - 35 - 36 3 out 5
1 - 17 - 18 - 36 - 37 3 out 5
1 - 17 - 18 - 36 - 38 4 out 5
4 - 9 - 16 - 25 - 29
4 - 9 - 16 - 25 - 38
4 - 9 - 16 - 29 - 38 2 out 5
4 - 9 - 25 - 29 - 38
9 - 11 - 16 - 25 - 36
9 - 11 - 16 - 27 - 36
9 - 11 - 18 - 27 - 38 2 out 5
9 - 11 - 18 - 29 - 38 2 out 5
Monday, January 28, 2013
All prize amounts based on a wager of $1.
Match
Prize Amount
Match 5 of 5
$0
Match 4 of 5
$782
Match 3 of 5
$23.50
Match 2 of 5 (free ticket)
$0
CajunWin4,
I said, "Anyone reading my posts will also see that your claim I feel it is stupid to play the lottery is also ridiculous."
And you replied with, "If you feel that playing the Lottery is ridiculus . Why you keep Posting on Lottery Post?"
I don't understand your logic. Could you please explain? (see "your claim")
Louisiana United States
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April 24, 2010
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Jimmy ,
If you feel playing the Lottery is ridiculous then why Post or be here ?? If you feel that way !! You're information and post will not change anyones mind about playing these games . My claim is fact not here say !! I have two 5 out 5 Predictions Posted with my System and Method for game play and many 4 out 5 ,
Kentucky United States
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February 14, 2006
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Quote: Originally posted by Boney526 on Jan 29, 2013
(I don't know what you mean by the house edge only applies to winnings. The house edge applies to the amount wagered. But I'm sure you know that and I'm just misinterpretting that sentence, so I'll move one...)
First of all, I recommend others play low house edge games if they ask my opinion. I know that many gamblers like the idea of a big payoff, and are willing to make large house edge bets with small amounts of money. There's nothing inherently wrong with that. People have different preferences, but IMO, there are games with large enough payouts and low enough house edges that I'd pass over Keno in a heartbeat if I was planning on gambling at a disadvantage.
However, I don't gamble very often. I've been to Turning Stone Casino, where you can play without being 21, but I'll be turning 21 in a few months. The second reason is that there are honestly pretty much no chances to gamble at an advantage, but that should broaden up when I turn 21. I don't play games for a chance at a huge payout, nor do I play games for fun (although I do find some of them fun.) I do so purely to find an edge and grind it out. That's not exciting to most gamblers, but I enjoy the challenge.
So I aim to accomplish that through Poker. As I've mentioned before, I started gambling with the lottery and after taking a required statistics course (could have done Calculus instead, but chose Stat,) I began studying the math behind gambling. I moved on to learn to count cards (a skill I will probably never use) as a hobby and that was a good starting point. I'm now studying No Limit Hold 'Em (specifcally tournament strategy) - and I think it is by far my favorite game to play.
"You're basically doing the same thing by playing the higher percentage casino games, but can you get that one quality hit that could make an overall difference between winning and losing?"
So to answer that question, I would have to first point out that I am not playing games with a house edge at all. At least my goal is to play games with a player edge - and not games that the casinos would ban me for. That usually limits me to trying to play Poker stronger than other players do, and grind out a profit dealing with the Variance (Standard Deviation) as it comes. If I can do that succesfully, then it won't be about that one huge hit that makes the difference between winning and losing in a negative expectation game. It will be about managing that same risk, so that my positive expectation game has as few downwards swings as possible.
TL;DR
1) If someone asks, I recommend low edge games.
2) There are some low edge games with high payouts out there, which I'd pick over Keno.
3) I don't gamble much right now, and am trying to only gamble at an advantage.
4) Point 3 basically leads me to play pnly poker, which I am studying.
5) Since I have an edge, I am not reliant on a big payoff to net me a win, instead I am reliant on my ability to manage the risk and prevent huge swings.
"I don't know what you mean by the house edge only applies to winnings. The house edge applies to the amount wagered."
Roulette pays $35 to $1 so the house edge on any winning 35 to 1 bet is 5.26% and the house should win 5.26% of all bets. If player bets and loses $100, the house doesn't charge then an extra $5.26 so the edge is only applied when paying off winning bets. If a roulette table has a volume of $1 million, the house should keep $52,600 and the winners should collect $947,400.
"there are games with large enough payouts and low enough house edges that I'd pass over Keno in a heartbeat if I was planning on gambling at a disadvantage."
That would be craps where a $5 pass line bet with 10 times odds lowers the overall house edge to under 1%. From what I've read, saw, and experienced, the best craps strategy is probably a pass line bet with full odds and two come bets with full odds. It cost $165 to get the three bets on the table and when they're on the table, if a seven is the next roll, the player is out $165 just like that. Many casinos now have a $10 minimum bet so that's $330 for just three bets.
Another version of playing the odds is to bet three times odds on 4 and 10, four times odds on 5 and 9 and five times odds on 6 and 8. At $5 a bet, each pays $35. At the minimum, it's a $115 bet so don't be knocking the $3 a bet Keno player who will probably bet $36 an hour. If you don't mind a 1.62% house edge and can find a $5 minimum table, double odds bets will cost you $45 using the pass line and two come bets strategy.
"The second reason is that there are honestly pretty much no chances to gamble at an advantage, but that should broaden up when I turn 21."
If there is an advantage, it's thoroughly understand how to play the game. I won't stay very long at a Blackjack table if the other players are not using basic hitting strategies unless I'm benefiting from their poor play. You might think it's a better game until you see many other players effecting your outcomes.
"So I aim to accomplish that through Poker."
It won't be long before online poker is legal again and not a bad place to learn the game. Live poker takes much more patience and much different than the $1 sit-and-goes they play online.
"That usually limits me to trying to play Poker stronger than other players do, and grind out a profit dealing with the Variance (Standard Deviation) as it comes."
Today poker is all about no limit tourneys and the best players in the world can't overcome a run of bad cards. Even the cash games are no limit. How can you grind it out when the other players constantly take you all in?
"If I can do that succesfully, then it won't be about that one huge hit that makes the difference between winning and losing in a negative expectation game."
Everybody plays Texas Hold 'em or Omaha and the stakes aren't penny-anti. I suppose it possible to make a few bucks playing the low limit games in some of the poker casinos, but how much can you really make when all the other players at your table are "grinding it out and playing the variance"?
"I don't gamble much right now, and am trying to only gamble at an advantage."
You can get the advantage more often playing poker if your good enough, but you still won't win every time. Gambling is about timing and looking for an advantage is the idea of this topic. You can calculate the odds of pocket aces winning hands, but knowing you had the best odds means nothing when the other guy is raking in the pot.