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Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

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Posted: January 31, 2013, 7:01 pm - IP Logged

You may gamble, but your age has nothing to do with your understanding of the math behind the games (which after all, is all these games are.)  I'm not going to argue with you about blackjack, something I've studied extensively.  If you honestly believe other people's play affect your odds, you are suffering from gamblers' fallacy, pure and simple.  I'll tell you something for a fact.  No profitable blackjack player cares if other players hit their 14 against a 3.  It's a bad move, but it doesn't matter as long as you play your cards right.

 

If you don't understand that there is a huge difference between poker cash game strategy and tournament strategy (and that tournament strategy is really very different depening largely on the structure of the tournament, your stack size, etc.) then I don't know what to tell you.  I own Super System, but it's really very outdated.  It presents some important concepts, but there has been so much better literature since then.

 

Sure, if you play purely in tournaments with 1000s of people in the field, you'll need 100s of thousands of game (impossible for live games in a life time) before luck isn't the primary factor.  But I'm not limited to games with fields of 1000s of people, games take place daily with 20-200 players.  I'd only have to play a couple thousand of those for skill to become the primary factor in my results.  And if they legalize online poker in NJ, then there will be games running all the time.  45,90 and 180 man Sit n Go's will pretty much always be available.  Sounds good to me.

 

I get what you're saying about being near cashing, or "the bubble" but the reality is serious players who aim to make as much cash as possible play aggressively on the bubble except in certain rare circumstances, when you are shortstacked and there are way more shortstacked players, or if you'd have to be playing aggressively into a loose big stack while medium stacked, etc.

 

The guy who folded quads gave his ratonal for putting the other guy on a straight flush, but I still think it was a bad move.  He also said that he thought he had a big enough edge over the field to give up the hand and find a better spot later.

"You may gamble, but your age has nothing to do with your understanding of the math behind the games"

The only math involved with age means the older you are, the more hours, days and years you can be log into casino gambling. Not everybody playing Blackjack is a card counter or even knows there is a basic hitting strategy.

"I'm not going to argue with you about blackjack, something I've studied extensively."

Did you studies include the player to your right that can't even count, has on enough perfume to gag a maggot, or who hasn't bathed in two or three days?

I've seen people continue to ask for a hit after they busted. The math you studied is percentages and calling a 3 bet raise holding 2-7 isn't part of that strategy just because there is small percentage chance a pair of 7s will flop. You're completely missing the point, math won't prevent the player on your right hitting 13 to a 4 and getting the Ace you needed on your double down. They hit 13, stand on 14, and you get a 6 yet you're saying because you studied, it should have no effect on your chances of winning that hand or several other hands like that?

"It's a bad move, but it doesn't matter as long as you play your cards right."

I'm not talking about an isolated incidence when another player screwed up my chances. I quit playing Blackjack because it always happened. People will sit down at tables, don't even know what the game is, how to bet, know how much is the minimum bet, or even know how to play. How can you play your cards right when the person to your right is playing wrong and taking the card you need to win or taking the dealer's bust card?

"If you don't understand that there is a huge difference between poker cash game strategy and tournament strategy"

In the casinos I've played in, a few players might be playing a $2/$4 limit game waiting for a sit-and-go to fill up. They had lots of $1/$2 limit games when I was in Florida and you might get lucky and win a $20 pot, but most were under $10. I watched a couple of the golfers playing in a five handed $5/$10 no limit game in Mesquite and saw another player raise them all-in every time they were in the blinds. Of course the strategy is different, but where do find these good cash games?

"And if they legalize online poker in NJ, then there will be games running all the time."

Because of the large number of Internet players doing so well in 50 plus WSOP events that and live poker can't be that much different. I played for about 6 years before the ban and was lucky to withdraw most of my funds before Black Friday because I heard the rumor it was going to happen.


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    Posted: January 31, 2013, 7:02 pm - IP Logged

    In case you don't want to bother browsing the pages jim, I will just tell you that your NOT the first person to rush in and tell us "You are wasting your time" That's right! Your friend Moe was the first to sound the alarm and blow the trumpet freeing the masses from the depths of the dark dreadful deliriums of wasting time.

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      Posted: January 31, 2013, 7:08 pm - IP Logged

      In case you don't want to bother browsing the pages jim, I will just tell you that your NOT the first person to rush in and tell us "You are wasting your time" That's right! Your friend Moe was the first to sound the alarm and blow the trumpet freeing the masses from the depths of the dark dreadful deliriums of wasting time.

      In 273 pages, I can't remember ever talking about using 38 numbers. We discussed the 25 combo 39 number wheel, but do you remember talking about using 38 numbers or is our critic suffering from hallucinations along with his delusions of grandeur?


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        Posted: January 31, 2013, 7:12 pm - IP Logged

        In 273 pages, I can't remember ever talking about using 38 numbers. We discussed the 25 combo 39 number wheel, but do you remember talking about using 38 numbers or is our critic suffering from hallucinations along with his delusions of grandeur?

        I think its the superiority, 38 numbers had never been discussed, played, wheeled, or even mentioned.

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          Posted: January 31, 2013, 7:19 pm - IP Logged

          Jim your superiority complex is getting really old........ In fact I believe I can be quite certain at this point that you are being annoying on purpose which is the most childish thing I have seen on all of LP.

          You keep making the same points over and over and over again. Everyone here knows all about the odds and all about gamblers fallacy, and psychologists, and controlling personalities, and inanimate ping pong balls, and etc, and etc, and etc, and etc, and etc.....................................................................................

          Before you joined a couple of members were discussing a simple tick tac toe pick-3 workout in Systems and Jimmy jumped in with the same boring stuff. I can't remember how they told him where he could stick his statistics and fallacy stuff and avoid being edited, but it was funny.


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            Posted: January 31, 2013, 7:25 pm - IP Logged

            Jim your superiority complex is getting really old........ In fact I believe I can be quite certain at this point that you are being annoying on purpose which is the most childish thing I have seen on all of LP.

            You keep making the same points over and over and over again. Everyone here knows all about the odds and all about gamblers fallacy, and psychologists, and controlling personalities, and inanimate ping pong balls, and etc, and etc, and etc, and etc, and etc.....................................................................................

            If they are so well informed, why then do they persist in pursuing what they know to be impossible?


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              Posted: January 31, 2013, 7:31 pm - IP Logged

              If you had taken the time to follow RJOh's simple advice jim, and read the first few pages of this thread you may have come to the realization that I (and others) are taking an experimental approach in exploring the question at hand and are NOT oblivious to the conventional school of thought concerning odds.

              Just thought I'd take this opportunity to commend you on the dramatic improvement in your grammar and style of posting today.  Will this be permanent? Wink


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                Posted: January 31, 2013, 7:34 pm - IP Logged

                Before you joined a couple of members were discussing a simple tick tac toe pick-3 workout in Systems and Jimmy jumped in with the same boring stuff. I can't remember how they told him where he could stick his statistics and fallacy stuff and avoid being edited, but it was funny.

                Funny. I will look for it, if I get time. I'm sure little jimmy just needs a place to get noticed. Poor little jimmy has done as much as anyone in promoting the thread and the ideas for achieving BETTER ODDS.

                I have never asked for support, and yet because of little jimmys plea's for help many members who we may not have ever heard from have posted stories and offered support. Way to go larry, moe, and curly.


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                  Posted: January 31, 2013, 7:35 pm - IP Logged

                  Just thought I'd take this opportunity to commend you on the dramatic improvement in your grammar and style of posting today.  Will this be permanent? Wink

                  Not likely jimmy, you provided some unusual inspiration today. lol. Thanks for being a sport.......


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                    Posted: January 31, 2013, 7:37 pm - IP Logged

                    Its fun watching the stooges do slap stick...... but I gotta check out............

                    Have a good night everyone..........


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                      Posted: January 31, 2013, 7:37 pm - IP Logged

                      Yes Nod


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                        Posted: January 31, 2013, 7:38 pm - IP Logged

                        Bed


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                          Posted: January 31, 2013, 8:24 pm - IP Logged

                          In 273 pages, I can't remember ever talking about using 38 numbers. We discussed the 25 combo 39 number wheel, but do you remember talking about using 38 numbers or is our critic suffering from hallucinations along with his delusions of grandeur?

                          Sorry about that Stack47.

                          Since when talking about selecting numbers from subsets of 28, 38, or 39 numbers from a universe of 56 or 59 is of little consequence when discussing the advantages of doing so, I guess I glaze over occasionally and confuse you and Ronnie316.  I hope I didn't insult anyone.

                          Looking back, I see that  Ronnie likes sets of 38 or 39...

                          http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/247020/2898680 

                          and you are the Champion of 28...

                          http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/247020/2882101 

                          ...not that it really matters. 

                          You'll try any tactic to avoid the truth, won't you?

                          My thread on the (5,2) Lotto explains it all, but you refuse to deal with it.

                          https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/255566 

                          You really should stick to Blackjack.

                          --Jimmy4164


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                            Posted: January 31, 2013, 8:42 pm - IP Logged

                            Jim your superiority complex is getting really old........ In fact I believe I can be quite certain at this point that you are being annoying on purpose which is the most childish thing I have seen on all of LP.

                            You keep making the same points over and over and over again. Everyone here knows all about the odds and all about gamblers fallacy, and psychologists, and controlling personalities, and inanimate ping pong balls, and etc, and etc, and etc, and etc, and etc.....................................................................................

                            Ronnie316,

                            If they are so well informed, why then do they persist in pursuing what they know to be impossible?

                            As I see it, there are 2 ways you might stop perceiving superiority in my posts.

                            I could purposely dumb them down for you, which I'm not comfortable with.

                            Or, you could raise your IQ.  Since you are sure you can increase your odds when playing a game based upon random processes, I imagine you could devise a way to do that as well.

                            Give it a shot!

                            --Jimmy4164

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                              Posted: February 1, 2013, 1:59 am - IP Logged

                              "You may gamble, but your age has nothing to do with your understanding of the math behind the games"

                              The only math involved with age means the older you are, the more hours, days and years you can be log into casino gambling. Not everybody playing Blackjack is a card counter or even knows there is a basic hitting strategy.

                              "I'm not going to argue with you about blackjack, something I've studied extensively."

                              Did you studies include the player to your right that can't even count, has on enough perfume to gag a maggot, or who hasn't bathed in two or three days?

                              I've seen people continue to ask for a hit after they busted. The math you studied is percentages and calling a 3 bet raise holding 2-7 isn't part of that strategy just because there is small percentage chance a pair of 7s will flop. You're completely missing the point, math won't prevent the player on your right hitting 13 to a 4 and getting the Ace you needed on your double down. They hit 13, stand on 14, and you get a 6 yet you're saying because you studied, it should have no effect on your chances of winning that hand or several other hands like that?

                              "It's a bad move, but it doesn't matter as long as you play your cards right."

                              I'm not talking about an isolated incidence when another player screwed up my chances. I quit playing Blackjack because it always happened. People will sit down at tables, don't even know what the game is, how to bet, know how much is the minimum bet, or even know how to play. How can you play your cards right when the person to your right is playing wrong and taking the card you need to win or taking the dealer's bust card?

                              "If you don't understand that there is a huge difference between poker cash game strategy and tournament strategy"

                              In the casinos I've played in, a few players might be playing a $2/$4 limit game waiting for a sit-and-go to fill up. They had lots of $1/$2 limit games when I was in Florida and you might get lucky and win a $20 pot, but most were under $10. I watched a couple of the golfers playing in a five handed $5/$10 no limit game in Mesquite and saw another player raise them all-in every time they were in the blinds. Of course the strategy is different, but where do find these good cash games?

                              "And if they legalize online poker in NJ, then there will be games running all the time."

                              Because of the large number of Internet players doing so well in 50 plus WSOP events that and live poker can't be that much different. I played for about 6 years before the ban and was lucky to withdraw most of my funds before Black Friday because I heard the rumor it was going to happen.

                              Again I'm not going to devote my time teaching you about gamblers fallacy.  I assure you, because other players cannot affect the odds of any event, there play will hurt and help you equally.

                               

                              Have you taken the time to check how many times they hurt you against help you?  Because other people have.  Guess what.  There play has no affect on yours.  Like I said, if you can't stand to watch them "take the dealers bust card" (which isn't really a thing, because the next card could be any card that hasn't been played yet) then you don't have to play.  I assure you that no card counter has every worried that the player to his left would take the dealer's bust card.  And yes, I am saying their dumb play has no affect on my chances of winning.  It's not because I studied that that's true, although it is because I studied that I know that.  If other players affected your results, how in the world do you think it would be possible to count cards?  You'd have to avoid other players like the plague.

                               

                              If you are not trying to gain an edge, then just play whatever's fun for you.

                                 
                                Page 273 of 353