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Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

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Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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Posted: February 2, 2013, 3:17 pm - IP Logged

"If it was not random- it would then mean the game is illegal because someone would have figured out a way to beat the system and that has not happened nor will it."

What make you think if someone had figured out a way to beat the system or even take advantage of it, it would be general knowledge? 

There must be those in the lottery industry that don't dismiss the possibility or they wouldn't investigate weird happenings like 200 PB participants matching 5of5 or the same players winning several jackpots or second tier prizes in MM and PB.  They know the games are random but they don't accept everything that happens as being random.

When something completely outside the norm (re: more than three standard deviations off) it's worth the effort to make sure that there was no cheating.  Assuming that nobody within the lottery commission cheats, they know the game is random.  That's why once they found out a fortune cookie distributer put out those numbers - they paid everyone.  Had they found that there was cheating going on the obviously would have done further investitgations to find out which players won fairly and which players were involved in the scam.

 

"They know the games are random but they don't accept everything that happens as being random."

 

But that's the thing - as long the game is random, that's all they care really care about.  The players picks, on the other hand, are not as random, because people are likely to play furtune cookie numbers, birthdays, etc.  The Lottery drawing is the randomizing factor (apart from QP players) so as long as they don't find evidence of someone tampering with the drawing method - then they will pay off the winners without questioning their ticket's legitamacy.

 

Because the lottery drawing is the randomizing factor, they have dismissed that players can get better odds, but will still investigate odd events that are multiple STD DEVs off the expectred norm - because in those cases it's almost more likely that someone from within cheated than that 200 people actually won that prize by chance.  Once they figured out it was the second, they were fine with it.


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    Posted: February 2, 2013, 5:03 pm - IP Logged

    Set of 28 for MM. Fri. Feb. 1, 2013.

    01 02 03 04 06 07 08 11 12 16 18 19 20 21 23 24 25 29 30 34 38 39 41 42 49 54 55 56

    bonus ball 10

    If I had played 41 lines on the last MM draw, this is what they would have looked like.

    I hit 2 of 5 twice.....................................

    Friday, February 01, 2013      01 · 30 · 32 · 40 · 41    17            3$13 Million

    Wheel:  Pick 5 Abbreviated 2 if 2 of 28

    Tickets:  41

    Description: Minimum 2-number match, if 2 numbers drawn fall within your set of 28 numbers.

    Input:  1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12, 16, 18, 19, 20, 21, 23, 24, 25, 29, 30, 34, 38, 39, 41, 42, 49, 54, 55, 56

    1. 01-02-04-12-42
    2. 01-03-25-30-34
    3. 01-06-16-23-55
    4. 01-07-08-29-56
    5. 01-11-18-21-23
    6. 01-19-38-41-49
    7. 01-20-24-39-54
    8. 02-03-08-11-19
    9. 02-06-07-20-49
    10. 02-16-21-25-39
    11. 02-18-24-29-34
    12. 02-23-30-41-54
    13. 02-24-38-55-56
    14. 03-04-18-42-55
    15. 03-06-29-39-41
    16. 03-07-23-24-42
    17. 03-12-20-21-38
    18. 03-16-49-54-56
    19. 04-06-19-24-25
    20. 04-07-21-34-41
    21. 04-08-23-38-39
    22. 04-11-20-29-30
    23. 04-16-18-29-56
    24. 04-18-49-54-55
    25. 06-08-12-34-54
    26. 06-11-21-55-56
    27. 06-18-30-38-42
    28. 07-11-25-38-54
    29. 07-12-18-19-39
    30. 07-16-19-30-55
    31. 08-16-18-20-42
    32. 08-20-25-41-55
    33. 08-21-24-30-49
    34. 11-12-16-24-41
    35. 11-34-39-42-49
    36. 12-23-25-29-49
    37. 12-30-39-55-56
    38. 16-29-34-38-55
    39. 18-25-41-42-56
    40. 19-20-23-34-56
    41. 19-21-29-42-54


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      Posted: February 2, 2013, 5:44 pm - IP Logged

      I'm re posting this just to remind the critics that i ALREADY did better than 1 in 39....................

      HEY RONNIE U HIT THE MEGAMILLIONS BEFORE?

      I was trying my luck at simulated play with 98.280 lines per MM draw and matched 5+1 on the 18th draw.

      These were the numbers I posted before the draw, and the results from www.usamega.com Patriot

      02 10 13 38 05 18 21 29 41 04 08 43 09 51 44 50 52 13 49 55 06 07 24 11 23 36 20 28

      Bonus ball 

       

      Friday, August 10, 2012          10 · 18 · 36 · 38 · 44       08          4$29 Million

      http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/247020/45


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        Posted: February 2, 2013, 5:45 pm - IP Logged

        So there you go mediabrat, I don't have to "think" I can do BETTER than 1 in 39, I already did..........

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          Kentucky
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          Posted: February 2, 2013, 6:05 pm - IP Logged

          "Is there a mathematical way to prove it "evens out" and a good player will overcome the bad play by another player or are you just guessing?

           

          It has been proven, over and over again.  That's why everything in your post is wrong, but I'm not gonna give you a lesson on card counting.  Anybody who thinks you can affect the odds on the lottery or that the player to his left affects his odds doesn't have the right mindsight to count cards.

          "It has been proven, over and over again."

          Short of watching and analysing all the Blackjack play at every Blackjack table in the world, it can never be proved the play of one player won't effect the outcome of another.

          "I'm not gonna give you a lesson on card counting."

          You're not even old enough to play in a casino, yet you believe you know everything there is to know about gambling. If you can count 8 decks and and believe you can overcome the bad play by other players, it's no skin off my nose.

          "the player to his left affects his odds doesn't have the right mindsight to count cards."

          Don't be stupid, you know I was taking about odds; I said it can effect the outcome of hands.


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            Posted: February 2, 2013, 6:27 pm - IP Logged

            We are getting better odds by overcoming them boney, NOT be "affecting" them.


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              Posted: February 2, 2013, 6:28 pm - IP Logged

              Have a good night everyone. Time to check out.


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                Posted: February 2, 2013, 6:29 pm - IP Logged

                Bed

                  jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
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                  Posted: February 2, 2013, 8:10 pm - IP Logged

                  What I have always wondered about the 1 in 39 everybody talks about for MegaMillions.  When your talking about 1 in 39 your simply talking about matching 5 white balls and not the bonus ball.  If your spending $98280 per draw I would think you would need to hit within 2.5 draws or else you are losing money.  If you played with MegaPlier then you would need to hit within approximately 5 draws.

                  What am I not getting?

                  Jimmy

                    Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                    Posted: February 2, 2013, 10:31 pm - IP Logged

                    "It has been proven, over and over again."

                    Short of watching and analysing all the Blackjack play at every Blackjack table in the world, it can never be proved the play of one player won't effect the outcome of another.

                    "I'm not gonna give you a lesson on card counting."

                    You're not even old enough to play in a casino, yet you believe you know everything there is to know about gambling. If you can count 8 decks and and believe you can overcome the bad play by other players, it's no skin off my nose.

                    "the player to his left affects his odds doesn't have the right mindsight to count cards."

                    Don't be stupid, you know I was taking about odds; I said it can effect the outcome of hands.

                    Let me just point out how you (and Ronnie you do this, too) make a point, and then claim that you never said that and you really were saying something else.  First you posted how other people make you lose at blackjack, which is why you quit.  Specifically, after I said that they don't affect your odds, you replied with.....  (Ronnie does it by claiming his claims are undisputable fact and that a buffoon could do it, and then claiming it's all experimental and just for fun, depending on what's convenient as a response.)

                     

                    "Then you must figure odds different because a standard blackjack game uses 8 decks with 32 Aces and if the player to my right gets an Ace, my chances of getting an Ace are reduced by one. And any other player getting an Ace will effect the odds against getting an Ace."

                     

                    Now you say that you weren't talking about odds, and told me not to be stupid?  You're basically making points, and when they're shown to be wrong, you're saying that's not the point you were making.

                     

                    Another's players play simply DOES NOT affect the odds of you winning or losing, therefore, you don't need to "overcome the bad play by other players" since they're "bad play" is not relevant to me as long as I play well.  Again, you can point out my age all you want - but all that age does is make you more relectunt to learn new things - so I say that if you're old and you've gotten all your blackjack and casino advice and experience from average gamblers - it's you who is less knowledgable than I am on this subject.  But that's because I spent time reading the mathemetics behind the game, and understanding the counting techniques necesarry to beat the game.

                     

                     

                    "Short of watching and analysing all the Blackjack play at every Blackjack table in the world, it can never be proved the play of one player won't effect the outcome of another."

                     

                    As for that, that wasn't the goal.  Of course the play of one player will affect the outcome of a specific hand, but it won't affect the ODDS of any outcome on any given hand, so you don't have to worry about it.  It's like saying "you can't prove the power is more likely to go out during a rain storm, because I've seen plenty of rain storms where the power didn't go out and you'd have to analyze every rain storm happenig in the world to prove it."

                     

                    It's nonsense.  You can slice it any way you want - but the "information" that you're talking about is just false.  And any credible winning blackjack player will tell you that's true, and you can look it up on plenty of websites, books, etc. to confirm it if you actually want to learn the truth instead of just spewing whatever crap you learned from other horrible blackjack players.


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                      Posted: February 2, 2013, 10:38 pm - IP Logged

                      What I have always wondered about the 1 in 39 everybody talks about for MegaMillions.  When your talking about 1 in 39 your simply talking about matching 5 white balls and not the bonus ball.  If your spending $98280 per draw I would think you would need to hit within 2.5 draws or else you are losing money.  If you played with MegaPlier then you would need to hit within approximately 5 draws.

                      What am I not getting?

                      Jimmy

                      VERY Good Point!  Smile


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                        Posted: February 2, 2013, 11:15 pm - IP Logged

                        Noise-gate,

                        It is heartening to see posts by others not afflicted with  Innumeracy. 

                        --Jimmy4164

                        Here is the description of this book at Amazon...

                        "Why do even well-educated people understand so little about mathematics? And what are the costs of our innumeracy? John Allen Paulos, in his celebrated bestseller first published in 1988, argues that our inability to deal rationally with very large numbers and the probabilities associated with them results in misinformed governmental policies, confused personal decisions, and an increased susceptibility to pseudoscience of all kinds. Innumeracy lets us know what we're missing, and how we can do something about it.

                        "Sprinkling his discussion of numbers and probabilities with quirky stories and anecdotes, Paulos ranges freely over many aspects of modern life, from contested elections to sports stats, from stock scams and newspaper psychics to diet and medical claims, sex discrimination, insurance, lotteries, and drug testing. Readers of  Innumeracy will be rewarded with scores of astonishing facts, a fistful of powerful ideas, and, most important, a clearer, more quantitative way of looking at their world."

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                          Kentucky
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                          Posted: February 3, 2013, 12:17 am - IP Logged

                          Let me just point out how you (and Ronnie you do this, too) make a point, and then claim that you never said that and you really were saying something else.  First you posted how other people make you lose at blackjack, which is why you quit.  Specifically, after I said that they don't affect your odds, you replied with.....  (Ronnie does it by claiming his claims are undisputable fact and that a buffoon could do it, and then claiming it's all experimental and just for fun, depending on what's convenient as a response.)

                           

                          "Then you must figure odds different because a standard blackjack game uses 8 decks with 32 Aces and if the player to my right gets an Ace, my chances of getting an Ace are reduced by one. And any other player getting an Ace will effect the odds against getting an Ace."

                           

                          Now you say that you weren't talking about odds, and told me not to be stupid?  You're basically making points, and when they're shown to be wrong, you're saying that's not the point you were making.

                           

                          Another's players play simply DOES NOT affect the odds of you winning or losing, therefore, you don't need to "overcome the bad play by other players" since they're "bad play" is not relevant to me as long as I play well.  Again, you can point out my age all you want - but all that age does is make you more relectunt to learn new things - so I say that if you're old and you've gotten all your blackjack and casino advice and experience from average gamblers - it's you who is less knowledgable than I am on this subject.  But that's because I spent time reading the mathemetics behind the game, and understanding the counting techniques necesarry to beat the game.

                           

                           

                          "Short of watching and analysing all the Blackjack play at every Blackjack table in the world, it can never be proved the play of one player won't effect the outcome of another."

                           

                          As for that, that wasn't the goal.  Of course the play of one player will affect the outcome of a specific hand, but it won't affect the ODDS of any outcome on any given hand, so you don't have to worry about it.  It's like saying "you can't prove the power is more likely to go out during a rain storm, because I've seen plenty of rain storms where the power didn't go out and you'd have to analyze every rain storm happenig in the world to prove it."

                           

                          It's nonsense.  You can slice it any way you want - but the "information" that you're talking about is just false.  And any credible winning blackjack player will tell you that's true, and you can look it up on plenty of websites, books, etc. to confirm it if you actually want to learn the truth instead of just spewing whatever crap you learned from other horrible blackjack players.

                          "Of course the play of one player will affect the outcome of a specific hand, but it won't affect the ODDS of any outcome on any given hand, so you don't have to worry about it."

                          You don't get it because you never played the game. You've never had a big bet in circle, double up and watch some fool take make a stupid play. Use some of your math knowledge and figure the difference between winning $200 and losing $200.

                          "you can look it up on plenty of websites, books, etc. to confirm it"

                          The people writing the books will say other players often effect the outcomes because they actually played the game with real money. That PC Blackjack and poker game you're practicing on isn't the real thing.

                          "instead of just spewing whatever crap you learned from other horrible blackjack players."

                          There is nothing but picking up your chips and moving to another table you can learn from the players that can't add. Come back when you played real Blackjack with real money in a real casino and then will talk. Nobody cares how much imaginary money you won PC Blackjack and poker.

                          Bet you're a card playing legend in your own mind.

                            CajunWin4's avatar - Lottery-031.jpg
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                            Posted: February 3, 2013, 12:21 am - IP Logged

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                              Kentucky
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                              Posted: February 3, 2013, 12:23 am - IP Logged

                              What I have always wondered about the 1 in 39 everybody talks about for MegaMillions.  When your talking about 1 in 39 your simply talking about matching 5 white balls and not the bonus ball.  If your spending $98280 per draw I would think you would need to hit within 2.5 draws or else you are losing money.  If you played with MegaPlier then you would need to hit within approximately 5 draws.

                              What am I not getting?

                              Jimmy

                              It may be logistically impossible to accurately fill out and play 19,656 bet slips every drawing. If you have a strategy that can average matching five numbers every 39 drawings, a 4 if 4 wheel with less than 5000 combos could show a small profit. Theoretically of course.

                                 
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