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Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

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Posted: February 6, 2013, 5:57 pm - IP Logged

Jimbo

I have 4 family members that have all hit JP's one of them was a 5of5 w/0 BB on PB so I don't know if that

one counts.  I have a lot of reading to catch up on as it's been awhile since my last visit.

RL

A cousin of mine ran an office pool and wrote the software that

generated the Random picks for 13 people.  They hit for $20M.  Another

relative won around $100K.  The experiences of neither your relatives

nor mine prove anything other than that THEY WERE LUCKY!

And you have yet to prove there is any other explanation.


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    Posted: February 6, 2013, 6:12 pm - IP Logged

    I don't know anything about your workouts but even if one took three days and you won a PB jackpot, it would be the easiest million dollars you ever earned. Patriot

    A million dollars?!?!?

    I might have to start my workout now!  However I have had luck playing my choices for my states game in pick 5 and getting some numbers.

    But I still cant get that bitter taste of the $2 ticket out of my mouth.  Besides if I cant beat my little game regularly, its not going to be easy getting that 208 million.

    P.S.

    I might as well not play, I will let RJ and Ronnie share the winning jackpot.Wink That game is too easy.Wink


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      Posted: February 6, 2013, 6:59 pm - IP Logged

      A cousin of mine ran an office pool and wrote the software that

      generated the Random picks for 13 people.  They hit for $20M.  Another

      relative won around $100K.  The experiences of neither your relatives

      nor mine prove anything other than that THEY WERE LUCKY!

      And you have yet to prove there is any other explanation.

      No one around here feels obligated to prove anything to you jim. You are wasting your time.


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        Posted: February 6, 2013, 7:17 pm - IP Logged

        RJOh,

        "Some folks just hate the idea of a lucky lottery player winning so much money for so little work."

        And how many people do you know who are in this category?  I don't know one.  Do you think there might have been another reason "those folks" advocated for smaller jackpots?

        Besides, what does this have to do with whether certain number combinations have better odds than others?

        --Jimmy4164

        What do your posts have to do with anything, besides being a nuisance?


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          Posted: February 6, 2013, 7:33 pm - IP Logged

          I swear I don't understand why you folks are so concerned about 'odds' when there is little if anything anyone can do about them. They are what they are.

          The balls are 'objects' being blown around or otherwise mixed in an enclosed vessel with an escape hatch. No outside force can affect which objects will escape and become the winning numbers.
          Anyone with any sense at all knows that the values on the objects are not added, subtracted, divided, or multiplied in any way shape or form.
          Also, if you have a fist full of lottery tickets you have more opportunities to win than someone who has only one ticket, although both can hit the jackpot with a single combination.
          So what does it matter?
          Construct as many self picks as you can afford and hope you made the right choices. Or, buy as many Quick Picks as your budget will support and hope you get a winner.

          My two cents worth!

          Thanks for posting Bobby, but what does it hurt to at least TRY to win a jackpot using organized thought and number combinations which has been the premise of this thread from its beginning?

          For the sake of argument lets just say that I did "get lucky" when I predicted a 5+1 winner using 28 numbers and 1 bonus number. Are you going to also insist that it was "just luck" when Stack was able to put those numbers into a 4 if 4 of 28 wheel and reduce the total combinations to 5000 and still match 5+1?


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            Posted: February 6, 2013, 7:46 pm - IP Logged

            What do you mean by "better results?"

            It's absurd to think one day's results comparing a virtual handful of tickets

            in a game with 175Million potential outcomes would prove ANYTHING!

            Jimjwright showed you what to expect after quite a few more draws.

            If his work didn't convince you, check out this simulation again.

            http://www.justwebware.com/powerball/powerball.html 

            --Jimmy4164

            Now this is really cool. I just played for 25 years and only lost $5k. Thank you Jimmy.


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              Posted: February 6, 2013, 7:57 pm - IP Logged

              Now this is really cool. I just played for 25 years and only lost $5k. Thank you Jimmy.

              I noticed that book by catlin is in the lotterypost bookstore, along with about 20 other books.

              Since we are platinum members can we peruse the lottery books for free?

              I have looked at or read about 6 of the books in the store.  But If i see catlins book now in real life, I think I might burn it.Mad


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                Posted: February 6, 2013, 7:59 pm - IP Logged

                Now this is really cool. I just played for 25 years and only lost $5k. Thank you Jimmy.

                You should be proud of yourself ronnie.  Youv'e been playing for 25 years, and your not living in a cardboard box.Jester

                You even have some money left over for soap, and a chicken wing, (with white rice)

                  Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                  Posted: February 6, 2013, 11:08 pm - IP Logged

                  Yeah, so if overcoming the odds is much a bad idea..... My only alternative is, give up and quit????

                  Or play if you want, but don't delude yourself about getting better odds.

                   

                  I still play the lotto from time to time.  Of course, even if you did understand what some people here do, that wouldn't mean that you wouldn't play, or even that you'd play just as little as I do, only that you'd probably play in a more appropriate way with your money (although, I don't actually know your budget, your personal finances, etc. to say what is or isn't appropriate.)  And you may go and find yourself better opportunities to gamble, but whatever.

                   

                  Trust me, there are far better ways to take advantage of the utility of your money than attempting to beat the lottery.

                   

                  And nobody said that overcoming the odds is a "bad idea."  We did say that such a feat is literally impossible (even if you win, winning is a possible result within the odds.  To say that you won - which you only fictionally did - is the same thing as beating the odds is not true.  If you win consistently over a statistcally relevant sample size, then you can say that there's X% chance you beat the lottery.... that's never happen though.)

                   

                  So attempting to beat the odds, IMO, is a bad idea because it won't happen.  Actually knowing that you can and then taking advantage is different.  But the thing is, even if you had an edge over the lottery for the big games, you'd need a virtually endless bankroll to properly utizilize the edge you have.  But at that point you'd already be so filthy rich that you would probably have no interest in the lottery anyway so the point is moot.

                   

                   

                   

                   

                  IMO - people should just play for fun with whatever is a small amount of money to them.  That's the alternative to deluding yourself about the odds.

                    Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                    Posted: February 6, 2013, 11:22 pm - IP Logged

                    I'm not sure if they have the capacity to understand overcoming the odds. I often wonder if their "its impossible to beat the odds" philosophy extents to all areas of life or just the lottery?

                    It is impossible to beat the odds.

                     

                    The odds define themselves.  It's not impossible to do better than the odds dicatate in the short run, but I assure you that in the long run you will not beat the odds, only get closer and closer to theoretical average.

                     

                    In fact, you will be more likely to deviate farther away in absolute dollars the more you play, but as a percentage you will be more likely to match the longer you play.

                     

                    As much as you disregard the coin flipping analagy (because apparently using analogies is irrelevant in your world) it is absolutely relevant to the discussion at hand.  If you flip a coin ten times, you're very likey to not have 5 heads and 5 tails.  You're much more likely to have something like 30/70% or 40/60%. Over ten trials, the difference is probably going to be something like 2 or 3.  But give that a million flips, and you're likely to be something like 499,875/500,125 which is 250 off of average, but that is less than 1 percent off of average.

                     

                    In a game with a large negative expectation, there's no way this increasing absolute difference between the mean and the actual result can save you.  You will LOSE as you hit the long run.  The ONLY way to win is to get lucky in the short run.  Luckily almost every lottery player lives in the "short run", just because the "long run" on a game with millions of combos is many times the millions of possibilities....

                     

                    But you should also understand that lotteries do not follow a normal distribution, and that you are very likely to end up either really far behind (in terms of money won divided by money wagered) or really far ahead (if you got lucky at some point) unless you wager huge amounts of money.

                     

                    And if you do wager huge amounts of cash, then the long run will appear much quicker and you will be more likely to lose.  That's why the best advice I can give is play sparingly, and play small in these games.  Do not take them as a serious money making thing.

                      Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                      Posted: February 6, 2013, 11:32 pm - IP Logged

                      "Thanks for posting Bobby, but what does it hurt to at least TRY to win a jackpot using organized thought and number combinations which has been the premise of this thread from its beginning?"

                      It doesn't hurt.  At least, it seemingly doesn't hurt you, since you seem to play within your means.  It also doesn't help you, regardless of what you think, outside of perhaps some additional entertainment value.

                       

                      It may hurt other people, who delude themselves into thinking they can beat these games and play above their means, but that isn't your responsibility to police.

                       

                      As I've said before, good luck, because that's all you'll need, lots of luck, and nothing else can assist you.


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                        Posted: February 7, 2013, 12:08 am - IP Logged

                        Thanks for posting Bobby, but what does it hurt to at least TRY to win a jackpot using organized thought and number combinations which has been the premise of this thread from its beginning?

                        For the sake of argument lets just say that I did "get lucky" when I predicted a 5+1 winner using 28 numbers and 1 bonus number. Are you going to also insist that it was "just luck" when Stack was able to put those numbers into a 4 if 4 of 28 wheel and reduce the total combinations to 5000 and still match 5+1?

                        "Are you going to also insist that it was 'just luck' when Stack was able to put those numbers into a 4 if 4 of 28 wheel and reduce the total combinations to 5000 and still match 5+1?"

                        Yes.

                        --Jimmy4164

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                          Posted: February 7, 2013, 1:05 am - IP Logged

                          What do you mean by "better results?"

                          It's absurd to think one day's results comparing a virtual handful of tickets

                          in a game with 175Million potential outcomes would prove ANYTHING!

                          Jimjwright showed you what to expect after quite a few more draws.

                          If his work didn't convince you, check out this simulation again.

                          http://www.justwebware.com/powerball/powerball.html 

                          --Jimmy4164

                          "What do you mean by "better results?""

                          I reduced the 98,280 full wheel combos Ronnie was using to under 5000 combos and every combo won a prize including the jackpot.

                          "It's absurd to think one day's results comparing a virtual handful of tickets in a game with 175Million potential outcomes would prove ANYTHING!"

                          LMAO!

                          Why would you want to compare less than 800 MM results to every possible combination when in every one of those drawings 171,318,747 of your potential combos failed to win a prize?

                          How was it possible for Ronnie to pick the numbers and for me to place his numbers into less than 5000 combos without any of those combos being among the over 171 million potential losing combos?

                          "Jimjwright showed you what to expect after quite a few more draws."

                          I could use Ronnie's numbers with the FREE 4 if 4 wheel on BobP's website for the next 25 years, match nothing, and still show a profit. Why do you always ignorantly assume any real lottery player would continue to use a totally failing betting strategy for quite a few more draws?

                          "Jimjwright showed you what to expect after quite a few more draws."

                          The following picture depicts the results after 42,305,214 games

                          Jimjwright's "quite a few more draws" is 406,781 years worth of MM drawings.

                          "If his work didn't convince you, check out this simulation again."

                          I did check it out, but you're forgetting the strategy here is to use less than all the numbers.

                          Jimj also said:

                          For each game 8 random tickets were generated for Test Group A and 8 random tickets were generated for Test Group B. For Test Group A the 8 tickets had all 48 numbers in play or no duplicate numbers.

                          You'll never find 8 randomly selected QP tickets with no duplicate numbers in a 6/48 game or any 8 consecutive QP where each line is not randomly generated independent of any of the other lines. Here is an example of what 8 randomly generated lines really look like in a 6/47 game.

                          • 05-07-12-38-40-42
                          • 03-13-17-19-21-36
                          • 05-09-19-25-37-45
                          • 01-15-18-23-33-34
                          • 10-12-13-26-27-29
                          • 06-08-19-34-35-44
                          • 14-17-29-32-35-41
                          • 08-12-18-30-45-46

                          By my count only 23 of the numbers were not duplicated and Jimj forgot to account for the fact a new set of QPs would be randomly generated for each of the 42,305,214 games.

                          To Jimj's credit, he did go on to explain in a later post his methodology, but I fail to see how his test results show anything more than the probably of any 8 tickets with no duplicate numbers in the next 42,305,214 games. I would like to see a comparison the my set of 8 randomly generated lines to 8 lines with no duplicates for a more reasonable 500 games.

                          His test doesn't apply to this discussion because we're talking about using half the numbers and the 28 numbers used can change every drawing. Post 28 numbers with any configuration of bonus numbers and will check your "ROI" using the FREE 4 if 4 wheel.


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                            Posted: February 7, 2013, 10:11 am - IP Logged

                            Excellent work Stack,

                            its laughable that they think using a strategy is no BETTER than matching 2 QPs on the same draw.


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                              Posted: February 7, 2013, 12:10 pm - IP Logged

                              I did not factor in the bonus ball in these calculations, durn it.  I will have to keep looking for a way

                              to be king of the predictions board.

                              RL

                              Predictions?

                              What predictions?

                              It's been almost 8 months to the day.

                              We're all waiting.

                              https://www.lotterypost.com/predictions-statistics.asp?i=61069 

                              --Jimmy4164

                                 
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