Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited January 24, 2017, 6:04 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

Page 289 of 353
4.820
PrintE-mailLink
Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
New Jersey
United States
Member #99032
October 18, 2010
1439 Posts
Offline
Posted: February 8, 2013, 12:31 pm - IP Logged

Unless of course, you think I'm just plain stupid..............

Is that what you think boney, that I'm stupid, and your smart?

I'm not going to call you stupid - but your last statement was a dumb thing to say.


    United States
    Member #93947
    July 10, 2010
    2180 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: February 8, 2013, 12:50 pm - IP Logged

    Gambling odds are figured by chances of losing vs chances of winning and the last time my cat looked, buying a lottery ticket  is gambling.

    My subsets are doing find and averaging over 20% hits for the year.

    Stack47,

    Yes, you do very well with "Hits" in that Texas game.

    Looks like your ROI (Prize Ratio) could stand a little "Study" though.

    I don't expect mine to do any better, month to month, but since you're

    expecting winnings with your subsets, we'll be watching.

    https://www.lotterypost.com/predictions-statistics.asp?i=34230 

    --Jimmy4164

      Avatar
      Kentucky
      United States
      Member #32652
      February 14, 2006
      7344 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: February 8, 2013, 3:23 pm - IP Logged

      Your assumption was lottery players would not only continue to play the same way forever, but use the same 8 lines.


      I didn't use the same 8 lines over and over.  The program simulated 2 players with different strategies.  Each game the program generated 8 new tickets.  For player A it arranged all 48 numbers into random arrangements on the 8 tickets.  Player B just simulated a QP player and it generated 8 random tickets and didn't care if there were duplicate numbers on the tickets.  I don't think anyone would dispute there are ton of  players like player B that just buy QP's.  I don't know if there are very many players like Player A.

      Again the program generated 8 new tickets for each game played just as if a player bought them at a lottery terminal.  I'm more than willing to provide the source code to the program on request to anyone that has Microsoft Visual Studio and is familiar with C++ and MFC.  I have nothing to hide the program is computationally sound.

      Why did you use so many drawings for your test?

      The whole point of the exercise was to see if strategy A would yield more jackpots than strategy B.  If I just ran it for 100 drawings with 8 tickets bought per draw to simulate 2 real players then only 800 tickets would have been bought by Player A and Player B.  Both strategies would have had 0 for match6 when the odds of matching 6 of 6 is 1 in 12 million.  What would that prove?

      Since people have a hangup about it being unrealistic for individual players to compete in this simulation I will propose an alternative.  Instead of players you could think of the simulation as state of Florida (Strategy A) which have lottery terminal programmed so that if multi line QP's are purchased to not return any duplicates.  Lets also imagine that the lottery terminals can only print out 8 lines at a time per ticket.  So you are guaranteed that on an individual ticket for this 6/48 you will never have duplicate numbers.  Strategy B could be state of New York with normal terminals that may return duplicates when multi line QP's are purchased.

      On a big jackpot say 500 million or above there easily will be millions of tickets bought in each state for that draw.  So instead of Player A vs Player B it would be state of Florida lottery terminals vs state of New York lottery terminals.  If the only multi-state lottery game being offered in Florida and New York was this 6/48 game which state would you prefer to live in order to play this game when purchasing 8 multi-line QP's when the jackpot was at 500 million or above?  Would you prefer Florida or would you prefer New York or would you not care because the odds are the same?

       

      Jimmy

       

      "The whole point of the exercise was to see if strategy A would yield more jackpots than strategy B."

      I won't speak for BobP, but I believe his point was to show the overall effect by using all 48 numbers on 8 lines. It could be used as a betting strategy trying to win a jackpot, but it's a terrible strategy trying to get multiple secondary prize wins because two of the lines by default will never match a number.

      "Since people have a hangup about it being unrealistic for individual players to compete in this simulation I will propose an alternative."

      It would be more realistic to ask if I would play MM in California that has pari-mutual payoffs or play in a state with fixed payoffs.

      "Would you prefer Florida or would you prefer New York or would you not care because the odds are the same?"

      I'd make my choice based on the weather because while I could effectively have better odds in Florida, the same effect would lower the number of chances of winning something so it's a wash.

      I have better alternative too.

      Feel free to use the same unrealistic 42,305,214 games for the test, but use a 5/39 game with Group A being 25 lines of a 2 if 5 wheel using all 39 numbers and Group B being 25 QPs. Let's see which group gets more two, three, four, and five number matches.

      "If Strategy A had actually improved your odds then if you divide 338,441,712 by 1,947,792 then that would have been your expected match 6 winners.  So I should have had 173 match 6 winners if I was to believe what was stated."

      If I wanted to conditionally lower the playing field by 12 numbers as BobP suggested, I'd use 36 numbers on 6 lines. The test is now comparing 8 lines of QPs to 6 lines of self picks. The odds of any of those 6 lines matching 6 six numbers are 324,626 to 1 once in every 6.3 drawings. The choice now is between having odds of 1,533,939 to 1 in every drawing with 8 lines of QPs or odds of 324,626 to 1 in every 6.3 drawings with 6 lines using 36 numbers.

      "Test Group A would be someone that randomly arranged 48 numbers into 8 tickets where there was no duplicates.

      The question here is can a specific group of combinations get better results than other groups with the same number of combos and it looks like in your test, a different set of 8 combos were used in every drawing.

      "But clearly the results showed I only had 28 match 6 winners.  Using Strategy A and Strategy B had the same effective results."

      Getting the same results proves using any playing strategy is no worse than buying QPs.


        United States
        Member #116268
        September 7, 2011
        20244 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: February 8, 2013, 4:16 pm - IP Logged

        "The whole point of the exercise was to see if strategy A would yield more jackpots than strategy B."

        I won't speak for BobP, but I believe his point was to show the overall effect by using all 48 numbers on 8 lines. It could be used as a betting strategy trying to win a jackpot, but it's a terrible strategy trying to get multiple secondary prize wins because two of the lines by default will never match a number.

        "Since people have a hangup about it being unrealistic for individual players to compete in this simulation I will propose an alternative."

        It would be more realistic to ask if I would play MM in California that has pari-mutual payoffs or play in a state with fixed payoffs.

        "Would you prefer Florida or would you prefer New York or would you not care because the odds are the same?"

        I'd make my choice based on the weather because while I could effectively have better odds in Florida, the same effect would lower the number of chances of winning something so it's a wash.

        I have better alternative too.

        Feel free to use the same unrealistic 42,305,214 games for the test, but use a 5/39 game with Group A being 25 lines of a 2 if 5 wheel using all 39 numbers and Group B being 25 QPs. Let's see which group gets more two, three, four, and five number matches.

        "If Strategy A had actually improved your odds then if you divide 338,441,712 by 1,947,792 then that would have been your expected match 6 winners.  So I should have had 173 match 6 winners if I was to believe what was stated."

        If I wanted to conditionally lower the playing field by 12 numbers as BobP suggested, I'd use 36 numbers on 6 lines. The test is now comparing 8 lines of QPs to 6 lines of self picks. The odds of any of those 6 lines matching 6 six numbers are 324,626 to 1 once in every 6.3 drawings. The choice now is between having odds of 1,533,939 to 1 in every drawing with 8 lines of QPs or odds of 324,626 to 1 in every 6.3 drawings with 6 lines using 36 numbers.

        "Test Group A would be someone that randomly arranged 48 numbers into 8 tickets where there was no duplicates.

        The question here is can a specific group of combinations get better results than other groups with the same number of combos and it looks like in your test, a different set of 8 combos were used in every drawing.

        "But clearly the results showed I only had 28 match 6 winners.  Using Strategy A and Strategy B had the same effective results."

        Getting the same results proves using any playing strategy is no worse than buying QPs.

        I won't speak for BobP, but I believe his point was to show the overall effect by using all 48 numbers on 8 lines. It could be used as a betting strategy trying to win a jackpot, but it's a terrible strategy trying to get multiple secondary prize wins because two of the lines by default will never match a number.

        Thank you Stack. Thats what I was  thinking, but was unable to expess it.


          United States
          Member #116268
          September 7, 2011
          20244 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: February 8, 2013, 4:24 pm - IP Logged

          I won't speak for BobP, but I believe his point was to show the overall effect by using all 48 numbers on 8 lines. It could be used as a betting strategy trying to win a jackpot, but it's a terrible strategy trying to get multiple secondary prize wins because two of the lines by default will never match a number.

          Thank you Stack. Thats what I was  thinking, but was unable to expess it.

          Jimmy4164, was the one who posted that I had something to do with that strategy and nothing could be further from the truth. I suppose it was his way of causing trouble and confusion.

          I confronted him about why he thought it had anything to do with me, but of course he didnt respond. Here is the Jimmy4164 post that was directed at me.............

          Your speed reading needs to be improved, Ronnie.  His test group A was pruned to include only the sets you like.  Why not write your own program and see what YOU get.


            United States
            Member #116268
            September 7, 2011
            20244 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: February 8, 2013, 4:33 pm - IP Logged

            I'm not going to call you stupid - but your last statement was a dumb thing to say.

            Ok boney, if you were half as smart as you think you are you would be trying to help my find a way to put QPs to the test so your point could be proven instead of running to medbrats aid who is clearly childish, derogatory, and has tried to hijack this thread from his (or her) very first post on page 2.


              United States
              Member #116268
              September 7, 2011
              20244 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: February 8, 2013, 4:36 pm - IP Logged

              The fact is, I don't need a program to play a group of 98.820 lines against live draws. If anyone wants to put MY method to the test they will use 28 numbers that I choose. Or they will choose 28 of their own.


                United States
                Member #116268
                September 7, 2011
                20244 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: February 8, 2013, 4:46 pm - IP Logged

                I won't speak for BobP, but I believe his point was to show the overall effect by using all 48 numbers on 8 lines. It could be used as a betting strategy trying to win a jackpot, but it's a terrible strategy trying to get multiple secondary prize wins because two of the lines by default will never match a number.

                Your point about it being a terrible strategy for winning a jackpot is well taken Stack, and it reminded me that the object of THIS thread from the beginning is TRYING to win a jackpot

                The cry baby hijackers can cry and point fingers all they want, but the discussion and objective remain the same. Anytime they want to put 98.820 QPs to the test for 39 draws they are more than welcome.

                  Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
                  New Jersey
                  United States
                  Member #99032
                  October 18, 2010
                  1439 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: February 8, 2013, 5:00 pm - IP Logged

                  The fact is, I don't need a program to play a group of 98.820 lines against live draws. If anyone wants to put MY method to the test they will use 28 numbers that I choose. Or they will choose 28 of their own.

                  And how would a test that presumably has 50/50 odds prove anything?

                   

                  If you kept results of your numbers, and mine, and continue to do so they will eventually even out to approximately the same ROI, within a few percentage points eventually.  I don't know how long it will take - and I potentially could do the math to find out approximately how long it would take 95% of the time, but I just don't care about putting anything silly like this to the test.

                   

                  I'm not the one claiming to be smart.  I'm saying that your methodology won't work, nor will (for practical purposes) any other methodology intended to beat the lottery.  I can only speak about things I understand.  And I've spent enough time studying this stuff to know the truth.  You can choose to believe it or not, but I'm not going to dismiss reality b/c you say I should have to prove something that is already known to be true.

                   

                  And it is known to be true.  Just because you, and a select tiny percentage of the population, doesn't believe it doesn't mean it is not true.

                    Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
                    New Jersey
                    United States
                    Member #99032
                    October 18, 2010
                    1439 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: February 8, 2013, 5:02 pm - IP Logged

                    And you just proved my point.

                     

                    Instead of responding to any claims made, you make an offhanded comment about something that clearly was a secondary point.

                     

                    No credibility bro.


                      United States
                      Member #116268
                      September 7, 2011
                      20244 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: February 8, 2013, 5:13 pm - IP Logged

                      And you just proved my point.

                       

                      Instead of responding to any claims made, you make an offhanded comment about something that clearly was a secondary point.

                       

                      No credibility bro.

                      Im not sure what you mean, "Instead of responding to any claims made,"


                        United States
                        Member #116268
                        September 7, 2011
                        20244 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: February 8, 2013, 5:22 pm - IP Logged

                        The "claims made" have to changed for the past 3+ months. 6 different people overcame the 5 of 5 odds by double (or better) and 2 of those people overcame the the 5+1 odds by 20 times. You keep insisting that it was "just luck" without putting anything to the test. If random numbers can do the same thing, then why cant anyone show me?


                          United States
                          Member #116268
                          September 7, 2011
                          20244 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: February 8, 2013, 5:22 pm - IP Logged

                          What?

                            Avatar
                            Kentucky
                            United States
                            Member #32652
                            February 14, 2006
                            7344 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: February 8, 2013, 5:24 pm - IP Logged

                            Stack47,

                            Yes, you do very well with "Hits" in that Texas game.

                            Looks like your ROI (Prize Ratio) could stand a little "Study" though.

                            I don't expect mine to do any better, month to month, but since you're

                            expecting winnings with your subsets, we'll be watching.

                            https://www.lotterypost.com/predictions-statistics.asp?i=34230 

                            --Jimmy4164

                            You keep forgetting the object of the game and the object is hit a jackpot. Since I never had a second prize winner my prize ratio is what is expected without winning that prize a jackpot.

                            "I don't expect mine to do any better, month to month, but since you're expecting winnings with your subsets, we'll be watching."

                            My betting strategy is designed to get the 20% hit ratio I'm averaging and because the quality of the hits is less than expected, my prize ratio can only go up. Sorry to hear you're doing so poorly.


                              United States
                              Member #116268
                              September 7, 2011
                              20244 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: February 8, 2013, 5:25 pm - IP Logged

                              Jimmy was on the right track with the QP simulator link that he posted, but it wont test 98,820 lines.

                                 
                                Page 289 of 353