Welcome Guest
You last visited April 25, 2017, 6:05 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

 Page 287 of 353
u\$a
United States
Member #106665
February 22, 2011
19967 Posts
Offline
 Posted: February 7, 2013, 10:19 pm - IP Logged

My idea for winning a jackpot has always been centered around playing groups of numbers.

If the simulator that Jimmy4164 posted would run without changing the winning combination, it would be perfect for testing 98,820 QPs at a time for a hit.

We already know that (98,820) self picks can easily hit BETTER than once every 39 draws. What we don't know is how often QPs would hit in a simulation?

United States
Member #116268
September 7, 2011
20244 Posts
Offline
 Posted: February 7, 2013, 10:20 pm - IP Logged

Park City, UT
United States
Member #69864
January 18, 2009
1000 Posts
Offline
 Posted: February 7, 2013, 11:12 pm - IP Logged

I have been working on 15 sets of numbers for Powerball.  I have come up with the following 4 sets for MegaMillions for February only.  If one of them hits then it will match the short-term trends I am seeing for Powerball.

03-04-34-36-38-39-40-42-44-45-46-47-48-52-55
02-03-05-32-33-36-38-40-41-42-43-44-48-49-53
04-06-08-32-36-38-39-40-41-44-46-47-50-51-56
03-05-08-32-34-36-37-39-40-41-42-46-48-49-55

I hoping the one I highlited in red hits then I know I am on the right track when I generate new sets for March.  This strategy emphasizes 1 low number with 4 high numbers.

The hard part is no wheel really captures the winning combination.  If I was to form a combination from row 3 the one I highlited I would choose the following:

1 number from (04, 06, 08) if you know DMP speak then 1 number from LT (Lower Third).
1 number from (32, 36, 38) if you know DMP then a number not in LT or UT (Upper Third).
3 numbers from (39, 40, 41, 44, 46, 47, 50, 51, 56) the consecutives are especially in play.  Again if you know DMP then 3 numbers from UT.

Combos 06-32-41-44-46 or 08-32-39-40-41 would be examples.

So if the strategy pans out  I might have to create a custom wheel.  Lets see what happens for February.

Jimmy

Kentucky
United States
Member #32652
February 14, 2006
7452 Posts
Offline
 Posted: February 8, 2013, 12:16 am - IP Logged

In the other thread it was proposed that a 6/48 game becomes a 6/36 game if you buy 8 tickets and all 8 tickets have no duplicate numbers or that you play all 48 numbers on your 8 tickets.

A 6/48 has odds of matching 6 of 1 in 12,271,512.

A 6/36 has odds of matching 6 of 1 in 1,947,792.

If every game you buy 8 tickets for a 6/48 game you have 1 in 1,553,939 chance of matching 6.

If every game you buy 8 tickets for a 6/36 game you have 1 in  243,474. chance of matching 6.

If I was to believe what was proposed then buying 8 tickets using all the numbers then I would have increased my odds of matching 6 by 6.38 times.

I didn't believe this so I wrote a simulator program that took me less than 6 hours to write.

Test Group A would be someone that randomly arranged 48 numbers into 8 tickets where there was no duplicates.

Test Group B would be someone that bought 8 QP's  where duplicates would be in play.  In general 13 to 14 duplicates would probably exist on those 8 tickets.

After 42,305,214 games each strategy had bought 338,441,712 tickets.  If Strategy A had actually improved your odds then if you divide 338,441,712 by 1,947,792 then that would have been your expected match 6 winners.  So I should have had 173 match 6 winners if I was to believe what was stated.  But clearly the results showed I only had 28 match 6 winners.  Using Strategy A and Strategy B had the same effective results.

All my lotto simulator proves is what it set out to prove is that buying 8 tickets for a 6/48 game where you play all 48 numbers does not improve your odds to a 6/36 game.  If anyone believes that then mathematically prove it.  I don't have the ability to mathematically prove it but I am a software architect professionally so I have the ability to write a program to test out a premise or theory.  Which is what I did.

It has nothing to do with the discussion in this thread.  I don't buy QP's I purchase SP's.  I am on the same quest as everybody else at lotterypost in trying  to gain an advantage even though I know its a daunting task.  So to lump me in with boney and jimmy4164 I think is quite unfair but I really don't care anymore.

Jimmy

jimmy4164 remarked about your test and just like almost all of jimmy4164's test, yours to was unrealistic because of the amount of drawings. Your assumption was lottery players would not only continue to play the same way forever, but use the same 8 lines.

"It has nothing to do with the discussion in this thread."

It was jimmy4164 who brought your test into this discussion and I told him that too.

"I don't buy QP's I purchase SP's."

When I first started playing Lotto games I thought buying QPs was the same as trying to win two lotto drawings; one by the terminal and the real drawing. BobP's example was exactly how I played then and had a five number match. I believe it was 6/44 and I wrote all the numbers on the front of playing cards, shuffled them, used both hands to spread them out on a table face down, and marked each number six at a time on a play slip. I only played those lines for a total of about 15 drawings and maybe for 2 o 3 after I matched five.

Why did you use so many drawings for your test?

"So to lump me in with boney and jimmy4164 I think is quite unfair"

jimmy4164 was probably looking for allies and he lumped you in with them because you made a positive comment about his 2/5 game topic.

United States
Member #93947
July 10, 2010
2180 Posts
Offline
 Posted: February 8, 2013, 12:49 am - IP Logged

Who would have though you didn't know the meaning of the word "against".

If you roll a die (a six sided cube with a different indentation on each of the six sides ; one side has 1 dot, another has 2 dots, 3, dots, 4 dots, 5 dots, and 6 dots), there are six possible outcomes. If you bet on the side with 5 dots, there is five ways to lose, but only one way to win. Therefore the odds against a 5 being rolled are 5 to 1.

My cat understands it and I'm crossing my finger that you do too.

I'm sorry.  When I prefaced my math comment above I used Font Size 3.

"In Casino Talk your statement may be understood."

Maybe you need to see it in Font Size 5.

"In Casino Talk your statement may be understood."

And I'm sure your cat will remind you that before you try to use your "odds against" of 5 to 1 in a mathematical probability calculation involving the probability of rolling a 5, you must first convert it to 1/6, or 0.1666666.

--Jimmy4164

New Jersey
United States
Member #99032
October 18, 2010
1439 Posts
Offline
 Posted: February 8, 2013, 1:12 am - IP Logged

This is the most asinine example ever because first of all asset managers have money. (supposedly)

Why is this an asinine example?  Because three wealthy people would not SHARE ONE QUICK PICK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THIS IS SO STUPID!!!

WHAT WAS THE CONVERSATION THAT DAY?

HEY BILL I AM SHORT ON DOUGH, CAN I BORROW 66 CENTS FOR A QP?

NO I AM SORRY BILL, I ONLY HAVE 33 CENTS, MAYBE TOM CAN LOAN YOU 34 CENTS TO MAKE THE DIFFERENCE.

THIS IS A FISHY STORY, AND SOUNDS MORE LIKE AN URBAN LEGEND.

So like you.

Despite the fact that this actually happened you argue that you don't believe it.  OK.  In your world this probably never happened.

But on planet Earth it did.

New Jersey
United States
Member #99032
October 18, 2010
1439 Posts
Offline
 Posted: February 8, 2013, 1:13 am - IP Logged

No offense was ever intended Jimmy, if I can welcome medbrat's childish and derogatory comments I think I can welcome just about anyone's. lol.

I suppose disagreeing with you is childish and derogatory.  Who woulda thought one guy could be so egotistical.

United States
Member #93947
July 10, 2010
2180 Posts
Offline
 Posted: February 8, 2013, 1:14 am - IP Logged

I did not factor in the bonus ball in these calculations, durn it.  I will have to keep looking for a way

to be king of the predictions board.

RL

Predictions?

What predictions?

It's been almost 8 months to the day.

We're all waiting.

--Jimmy4164

Whiskey Island
United States
Member #90216
April 24, 2010
12891 Posts
Online
 Posted: February 8, 2013, 2:35 am - IP Logged

jimmy4164: Statistics Summary

Summary

Picks7,51036,49044,0000251,568
Hits8637101,044
Hit Ratio0.11%0.17%0.16%0.00%0.41%
Winnings\$738\$20,982\$21,720\$0\$113,504
Prize Ratio9.83%57.50%49.36%0.00%45.12%

CajunWin4: Statistics Summary

Summary

Picks8,22339,99448,217291,513647,604
Hits1013854861,6603,333
Hit Ratio1.23%0.96%1.01%0.57%0.51%
Winnings\$2,836\$22,918\$25,754\$148,378\$351,326
Prize Ratio33.67%55.81%52.04%50.60%53.99%

Ok , What does this Prove is my System is Better then your Method ?

If you can never think out side the box using Statitics and all the other C*** you will never be a Jackpot Winner .You will be a Perpetual Loser !!!

New Jersey
United States
Member #99032
October 18, 2010
1439 Posts
Offline
 Posted: February 8, 2013, 3:15 am - IP Logged

jimmy4164: Statistics Summary

Summary

Picks7,51036,49044,0000251,568
Hits8637101,044
Hit Ratio0.11%0.17%0.16%0.00%0.41%
Winnings\$738\$20,982\$21,720\$0\$113,504
Prize Ratio9.83%57.50%49.36%0.00%45.12%

CajunWin4: Statistics Summary

Summary

Picks8,22339,99448,217291,513647,604
Hits1013854861,6603,333
Hit Ratio1.23%0.96%1.01%0.57%0.51%
Winnings\$2,836\$22,918\$25,754\$148,378\$351,326
Prize Ratio33.67%55.81%52.04%50.60%53.99%

Ok , What does this Prove is my System is Better then your Method ?

If you can never think out side the box using Statitics and all the other C*** you will never be a Jackpot Winner .You will be a Perpetual Loser !!!

You will also be a loser.

Do you really think that 45.12% and 53.99% are that far apart?  And did you consider that if Jimmy did more JP games and you did more Pick 3 and 4 games, that you were more likely to be closer to 50% while Jimmy was more likely to be behind?

And how canyou really be proud of the fact that you're a losing predictor as well?  I mean honestly, the only stat in here where you did significanly better was this month.  Everything else is close with you "winning" in some stats, while he's "winning" in others.

Park City, UT
United States
Member #69864
January 18, 2009
1000 Posts
Offline
 Posted: February 8, 2013, 5:59 am - IP Logged

jimmy4164 remarked about your test and just like almost all of jimmy4164's test, yours to was unrealistic because of the amount of drawings. Your assumption was lottery players would not only continue to play the same way forever, but use the same 8 lines.

"It has nothing to do with the discussion in this thread."

It was jimmy4164 who brought your test into this discussion and I told him that too.

"I don't buy QP's I purchase SP's."

When I first started playing Lotto games I thought buying QPs was the same as trying to win two lotto drawings; one by the terminal and the real drawing. BobP's example was exactly how I played then and had a five number match. I believe it was 6/44 and I wrote all the numbers on the front of playing cards, shuffled them, used both hands to spread them out on a table face down, and marked each number six at a time on a play slip. I only played those lines for a total of about 15 drawings and maybe for 2 o 3 after I matched five.

Why did you use so many drawings for your test?

"So to lump me in with boney and jimmy4164 I think is quite unfair"

jimmy4164 was probably looking for allies and he lumped you in with them because you made a positive comment about his 2/5 game topic.

Your assumption was lottery players would not only continue to play the same way forever, but use the same 8 lines.

I didn't use the same 8 lines over and over.  The program simulated 2 players with different strategies.  Each game the program generated 8 new tickets.  For player A it arranged all 48 numbers into random arrangements on the 8 tickets.  Player B just simulated a QP player and it generated 8 random tickets and didn't care if there were duplicate numbers on the tickets.  I don't think anyone would dispute there are ton of  players like player B that just buy QP's.  I don't know if there are very many players like Player A.

Again the program generated 8 new tickets for each game played just as if a player bought them at a lottery terminal.  I'm more than willing to provide the source code to the program on request to anyone that has Microsoft Visual Studio and is familiar with C++ and MFC.  I have nothing to hide the program is computationally sound.

Why did you use so many drawings for your test?

The whole point of the exercise was to see if strategy A would yield more jackpots than strategy B.  If I just ran it for 100 drawings with 8 tickets bought per draw to simulate 2 real players then only 800 tickets would have been bought by Player A and Player B.  Both strategies would have had 0 for match6 when the odds of matching 6 of 6 is 1 in 12 million.  What would that prove?

Since people have a hangup about it being unrealistic for individual players to compete in this simulation I will propose an alternative.  Instead of players you could think of the simulation as state of Florida (Strategy A) which have lottery terminal programmed so that if multi line QP's are purchased to not return any duplicates.  Lets also imagine that the lottery terminals can only print out 8 lines at a time per ticket.  So you are guaranteed that on an individual ticket for this 6/48 you will never have duplicate numbers.  Strategy B could be state of New York with normal terminals that may return duplicates when multi line QP's are purchased.

On a big jackpot say 500 million or above there easily will be millions of tickets bought in each state for that draw.  So instead of Player A vs Player B it would be state of Florida lottery terminals vs state of New York lottery terminals.  If the only multi-state lottery game being offered in Florida and New York was this 6/48 game which state would you prefer to live in order to play this game when purchasing 8 multi-line QP's when the jackpot was at 500 million or above?  Would you prefer Florida or would you prefer New York or would you not care because the odds are the same?

Jimmy

United States
Member #137428
January 3, 2013
469 Posts
Offline
 Posted: February 8, 2013, 7:14 am - IP Logged

I see u jackpot game players do a lot  of winning over here.... I bet you all are super rich from all your wins.   NOT.  Lmao.    Buy a quick pick. And don't quit your day job

United States
Member #116268
September 7, 2011
20244 Posts
Offline
 Posted: February 8, 2013, 7:32 am - IP Logged

I see u jackpot game players do a lot  of winning over here.... I bet you all are super rich from all your wins.   NOT.  Lmao.    Buy a quick pick. And don't quit your day job

Thanks for posting Pick4ologist, but not everyone needs to have "wins" to be a winner OR "super rich".

United States
Member #137428
January 3, 2013
469 Posts
Offline
 Posted: February 8, 2013, 7:42 am - IP Logged

Thanks for posting Pick4ologist, but not everyone needs to have "wins" to be a winner OR "super rich".

this thread is enjoyable to read. Which game is easier to win. Mega millions or powerball.....

I think u have better odds with balls that are old raggedy and worn out..

than the fresh not drawn to often clean cut balls....  I just like balls.  It's something about them that make me feel good

United States
Member #116268
September 7, 2011
20244 Posts
Offline
 Posted: February 8, 2013, 7:42 am - IP Logged

I suppose disagreeing with you is childish and derogatory.  Who woulda thought one guy could be so egotistical.

Go right ahead and jump to meds defense boney, but it is you who is siding with someone just because they disagree with me. If that's the only basis you need to be in agreement with someone than go for it.

 Page 287 of 353