Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 6, 2016, 5:30 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

Page 292 of 353
4.820
PrintE-mailLink
Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
New Jersey
United States
Member #99032
October 18, 2010
1439 Posts
Offline
Posted: February 9, 2013, 4:11 pm - IP Logged

Probably because he doesn't like anyone applying odds conditionally or maybe because he wants to nit-pic the difference between saying 1 chance in 6 chances and 1 way to win and 5 ways to lose.

If you do all of the math related to conditional odds, you would realize that conditional odds end up being the exact same as normal odds.

 

But you guys do the math as if your conditions will be met 100% of the time.  That's why I say you aren't beating the odds, because if you finished your homework you'd find out that you aren't.


    United States
    Member #116268
    September 7, 2011
    20244 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: February 9, 2013, 4:53 pm - IP Logged

    I hit 3 of 5 with my red highlited set that contained 15 numbers or 3003 combinations.

    04-06-08-32-36-38-39-40-41-44-46-47-50-51-56

    Jimmy

    You have my support Jimmy. I actually played a 15 number wheel on this draw, but no hits.


      United States
      Member #116268
      September 7, 2011
      20244 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: February 9, 2013, 5:01 pm - IP Logged

      If you do all of the math related to conditional odds, you would realize that conditional odds end up being the exact same as normal odds.

       

      But you guys do the math as if your conditions will be met 100% of the time.  That's why I say you aren't beating the odds, because if you finished your homework you'd find out that you aren't.

      How can boney say "you guys do the math as if", when we are not even doing any math.

      There are several ways to get better odds on a given draw, one way is predictions that are accurate.


        United States
        Member #116268
        September 7, 2011
        20244 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: February 9, 2013, 5:04 pm - IP Logged

        It only takes one draw to win boney. "Get lucky" or "better odds" either way the objective is to win.


          United States
          Member #124493
          March 14, 2012
          7023 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: February 9, 2013, 5:05 pm - IP Logged

          How can boney say "you guys do the math as if", when we are not even doing any math.

          There are several ways to get better odds on a given draw, one way is predictions that are accurate.

          Very true Ronnie.  The "math" will not always give you the correct numbers.  One must account for chaos in their "formulas"

          Other times you have to go on a hunch and just say "F*CK the Math".  After all math is not our master, only a guidepost.


            United States
            Member #116268
            September 7, 2011
            20244 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: February 9, 2013, 5:07 pm - IP Logged

            Very true Ronnie.  The "math" will not always give you the correct numbers.  One must account for chaos in their "formulas"

            Other times you have to go on a hunch and just say "F*CK the Math".  After all math is not our master, only a guidepost.

            I Agree! Boney would enslave people with his math problems if he had his way.


              United States
              Member #116268
              September 7, 2011
              20244 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: February 9, 2013, 5:13 pm - IP Logged

              Boney insists that the lottery is not a game of skill, but then again boney has never tried to uses any of the built in skills that we all have. Such as perception, anticipation, prediction, intuition. Or what about the all seeing eye of the sixth sense, does boney have one of those, or has he had that surgically removed?


                United States
                Member #124493
                March 14, 2012
                7023 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: February 9, 2013, 5:16 pm - IP Logged

                I Agree! Boney would enslave people with his math problems if he had his way.

                Yes some people have the strange notion that this is N.A.S.A dot com and we are putting sattellites into geosychronous orbit.

                "Houston we have a problem, the math on our quickpicks is faulty, and satellite meltdown is imminent"

                We are only trying to make a dollar out of fifty cents.  Just like georgie peorgie, pudding and pie, he tried to do the math and it just made him cry.Sad


                  United States
                  Member #116268
                  September 7, 2011
                  20244 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: February 9, 2013, 5:17 pm - IP Logged

                  I get so tired of being bombarded with math questions and problems that have nothing to do with......

                   Some number combinations have BETTER ODDS

                    jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                    Park City, UT
                    United States
                    Member #69864
                    January 18, 2009
                    993 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: February 9, 2013, 5:19 pm - IP Logged

                    You could have won seven dollars using this LP wheel

                    Abbrev 3 if 3 of 15153 if 357Highly balanced (Each number appears 19 times)

                    Yes, but I would have lost $50 in winning that $7.  There are better methods to form your combinations out of a set of numbers than using wheels.

                    Ronnie thinks half the numbers is what is needed to capture all 5.  My computer simulations show that 1/3 of the numbers can capture all 5 without that much of dropout from half.  Once you go below 1/3 your success rate goes down at a higher rate but 1/4 of the numbers is still doable.  So the optimal number set for MegaMillions in relation to cost to the player would be 19 but still doable with 14 with further refinement.

                    Maddogs challenge sets of 12 are well below the optimal number for the player so that is why I quit playing it.

                    The 1/3 number becomes more reasonable when your playing a 5/39 game which becomes 13 number sets.  Those 13 numbers sets actually become 11 number sets for me because I throw out 2 numbers from the sets based on positional algorithms.

                    Jimmy


                      United States
                      Member #116268
                      September 7, 2011
                      20244 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: February 9, 2013, 5:32 pm - IP Logged

                      Yes, but I would have lost $50 in winning that $7.  There are better methods to form your combinations out of a set of numbers than using wheels.

                      Ronnie thinks half the numbers is what is needed to capture all 5.  My computer simulations show that 1/3 of the numbers can capture all 5 without that much of dropout from half.  Once you go below 1/3 your success rate goes down at a higher rate but 1/4 of the numbers is still doable.  So the optimal number set for MegaMillions in relation to cost to the player would be 19 but still doable with 14 with further refinement.

                      Maddogs challenge sets of 12 are well below the optimal number for the player so that is why I quit playing it.

                      The 1/3 number becomes more reasonable when your playing a 5/39 game which becomes 13 number sets.  Those 13 numbers sets actually become 11 number sets for me because I throw out 2 numbers from the sets based on positional algorithms.

                      Jimmy

                      I like the sound of 19 numbers, or even as few as 14 and I dont need to see the math in order to believe you. The main reason we ended up with 28 numbers is because it was easy to measure our ability to "beat the odds" as we only needed 39 draws to hit 5 of 5 once to match the lotteries stated "overall odds"


                        United States
                        Member #116268
                        September 7, 2011
                        20244 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: February 9, 2013, 5:44 pm - IP Logged

                        The actual results were as follows...

                        (some refer to me as a lottery "god" but I just say "I had BETTER ODDS")

                        Ronnie316 – 5+0 june 15, 2012---- 5+0 July 17, 2012 ---5+1 Aug. 10, 2012   5+0 Aug. 21, 2012   5+0 Sept. 7, 2012

                        MC 5+0 Aug. 7, 2012   5+0 Aug. 21, 2012    5+0 Oct. 19, 2012

                        DeadAim    5+0 Aug. 7, 2012    5+0 Sept. 7, 2012     5+0 Oct. 2, 2012

                        Topnail – 5+0 june 26, 2012--- 5+0 July 24, 2012

                        RJ    4+1 Aug. 10, 2012    5+0 Oct. 19, 2012

                        X1kosmic – 5+0 July 10, 2012 --  5+1 Sept. 18, 2012 

                        Boney - goose egg

                          jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                          Park City, UT
                          United States
                          Member #69864
                          January 18, 2009
                          993 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: February 9, 2013, 5:56 pm - IP Logged

                          Looks like you guys have done fairly well with the results.  What is the algorithm you use to select your 28 numbers and how do you know it matches the short-term periodic rate for the game?

                          For instance Brad Dukes thinks the last 6 (mongth) or 52 draws will immediately predict the future.  So I can only assume that he thinks the short-term peridocic rate to be something like 54 draws or 6 months and 1 week.  I arrive at 54 because he is hoping that his 52 draws that he is using to predict from is still valid for say the next 1 or 2 draws before it morphs into something else.

                          Do you have a short-term periodic rate you are operating from when selecting your 28 numbers?  If not then why not?  If you have a variable short-term periodic rate then I could see you getting variable results with your system.

                          Jimmy

                            Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
                            New Jersey
                            United States
                            Member #99032
                            October 18, 2010
                            1439 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: February 9, 2013, 6:16 pm - IP Logged

                            Boney insists that the lottery is not a game of skill, but then again boney has never tried to uses any of the built in skills that we all have. Such as perception, anticipation, prediction, intuition. Or what about the all seeing eye of the sixth sense, does boney have one of those, or has he had that surgically removed?

                            I'd like to point out that you've also said it's not a game of skill.

                             

                            And you've also said that it is.

                             

                            So it seems like you don't know what you're even saying.


                              United States
                              Member #116268
                              September 7, 2011
                              20244 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: February 9, 2013, 6:18 pm - IP Logged

                              Looks like you guys have done fairly well with the results.  What is the algorithm you use to select your 28 numbers and how do you know it matches the short-term periodic rate for the game?

                              For instance Brad Dukes thinks the last 6 (mongth) or 52 draws will immediately predict the future.  So I can only assume that he thinks the short-term peridocic rate to be something like 54 draws or 6 months and 1 week.  I arrive at 54 because he is hoping that his 52 draws that he is using to predict from is still valid for say the next 1 or 2 draws before it morphs into something else.

                              Do you have a short-term periodic rate you are operating from when selecting your 28 numbers?  If not then why not?  If you have a variable short-term periodic rate then I could see you getting variable results with your system.

                              Jimmy

                              Those are all excellent questions. Much more so than anything boney has ever posted here....

                               I'm sorry to say I'm behind the curve on these things and only based my choices on raw instincts and gut feelings as the first was a selection of all even numbers and the second all odd numbers..... The next was the 5+1 hit (shown below) chosen from previously drawn numbers....

                              (I had played the same single bonus number for 18 draws)

                              Friday, August 10, 2012            10 · 18 · 36 · 38 · 44    084$29 Million
                              Tuesday, August 07, 201230 · 32 · 33 · 42 · 48    074$21 Million
                              Friday, August 03, 201202 · 10 · 13 · 38 · 46    023$13 Million
                              Tuesday, July 31, 201205 · 18 · 21 · 29 · 41    373$12 Million
                              Friday, July 27, 201202 · 03 · 04 · 08 · 43    263$52 Million
                              Tuesday, July 24, 201205 · 09 · 38 · 46 · 51    054$45 Million
                              Friday, July 20, 201202 · 44 · 48 · 50 · 52    033$37 Million
                              Tuesday, July 17, 201201 · 13 · 21 · 49 · 55    174$28 Million
                              Friday, July 13, 201206 · 07 · 13 · 24 · 46    342$21 Million
                              Tuesday, July 10, 201203 · 11 · 19 · 23 · 36     214$14 Million
                              Friday, July 06, 201220 · 23 · 28 · 35 · 39    213$12 Million
                              Tuesday, July 03, 201203 · 04 · 24 · 36 · 52    454$86 Million
                              Friday, June 29, 201228 · 34 · 39 · 45 · 53    344$75 Million
                              Tuesday, June 26, 201203 · 16 · 23 · 35 · 36    20

                                 
                                Page 292 of 353