Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 10, 2016, 5:13 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

Page 34 of 353
4.820
PrintE-mailLink
x1kosmic's avatar - neptune vg2.gif

United States
Member #48046
December 7, 2006
1699 Posts
Offline
Posted: July 18, 2012, 3:13 pm - IP Logged

Ronnie hits 5+0 playing all odd numbers for 10 draws.

topnail scores 4+0. Excellent work. I had a feeling your getting hot.

I committed to playing all odd numbers for 10 draws and they hit on draw #9.

That's two, 5+0 hits in 11 draws for me. I'm thinking others here will do the same or better.

I see  the numbers were all odd again last night R-316

  I'm thinking  of going to the bank

    setting up a Christmas account

       give it mabey $20- $25  bucks every payday.

              At the end of the year.......mabey I'll have $300-400   wheeling money

pull the trigger, and do something          just crazy.

 

 Congrat's on all odd   Group Hug


    United States
    Member #116268
    September 7, 2011
    20244 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: July 18, 2012, 4:01 pm - IP Logged

    It was RJ that mentioned "consistent profit"; I only mentioned consistently matching two or three numbers with enough four number matches to show a small profit. At best I only proved it's possible to consistently get four number matches on one pay line playing a 3 if 4 abbreviated wheel. I know the odds so I know it was probable the next four times I matched four numbers using the same wheel, it was possible to not get any four number matches on a pay line.

    I quit that playing strategy because my object was to win the $100,000 plus jackpot and that can't be done by only matching four numbers. It's possible I could have played for an entire year off the winnings with little or no profit or maintained the 50% average and won $1 for every $2 I bet. While winning $3120 a year by betting $20 a day six days a week might sound like a good idea on paper, it means updating the chart every day, getting the 14 numbers to play, putting them into the wheel, accurately filling out four playslips, and taking them to a lottery retailer. After seven weeks, I decide it wasn't worth the time and I'm not tauting it as a winning system.

    "no one makes a consistent profit playing the lottery"

    A couple of weeks ago I was looking for something on the KY Lottery website and stumbled into the "Winners" section where they show players holding over sized checks. In the Pick-3 section one player's picture was shown 12 times winning various amounts from $1400 to $8000 in less than two years of play (20 months). The guy had winnings of $31,950 playing the Pick-3. His first three wins of $4000, $4000, and $3500 were in one week and his fourth was for $8000 was a few months later. His next 8 wins were from January 2012 and from the amounts he won, it looks like he was playing $2 to $2.50 straight/box tickets for those wins.

    I don't know how much he bet a drawing or why he decided to cash his tickets at the lottery headquarters (maybe he likes having his picture taken) so while it doesn't prove he consistently shows a profit, it does shows consistency in winning. He could show just a 50% profit with an average bet of $14 every Midday and Evening drawing.

    http://www.kylottery.com/apps/winners/pick3/pick3.html

    Excellent post Stack, also thought your reply to RJ was excellent. You make a great case for consistently playing your numbers. Even though it proved to be more effort than you wanted to continue making you did have a chance at hitting the $100k all the time you were playing.

    Which also helps my point that the timing needs to be right when we make a play at a big win. I have won more than my share of slot jackpots and it always happens in the first 5 minutes.

    Whatever game I play, if I don't achieve my objective in a limited amount of time I move on.

      Avatar
      Kentucky
      United States
      Member #32652
      February 14, 2006
      7322 Posts
      Online
      Posted: July 18, 2012, 4:22 pm - IP Logged

             I think you're overestimating the value of a 50% profit         

      I'm overestimating something because I keep thinking with *65620 ways to break even of better without winning the jackpot, I should be able to come up with a winning strategy.

      * 170 ways to match four for $300
         5610 ways to match three for $10
         59840 ways to match two for $1 and break even.

      If you're taking about investing $65,620 a year and making a guaranteed $32,810 profit, you're on to something, but I'm talking about something where the only guarantee is you'll get to play at a greatly reduced cost or get lucky for a short period of time and make a tiny profit. At $20 a drawing, a player would need a four number match every 15 drawings just to show a tiny profit. I got lucky and matched four numbers 4 times in 42 drawings, but that's still only a 42% profit; the rest came from the two and three number matches.

      My average daily winnings were about $11.75, but that's including the $1200 I won by matching four numbers in only 4 of the drawings. Out of 42 drawings, I lost money in at least 36 drawings and had a few where I didn't match even two numbers. I'm talking about actual play when the previous day's winnings were usually less then the cost of the playslips I handed the clerk and I had to make up the difference or $16 to $20 when I only matched two numbers or one or zero.

      I wasn't projecting a 50% or any profit playing forever or even for 6 months or a year; I'm not suggesting it's a winning system at least by my betting strategy. You won't find very many system makers that will mention the downside or explain why they quit using it.

      "170 ways to match four for $300"

      A full 14 number wheel has 2002 combos and 10 ways to match any four numbers. The overall odds are irreverent because a 14 number wheel can't match four numbers when less than four of the numbers are drawn. There are odds against matching the four numbers on the same line when four of the numbers are drawn.

      "5610 ways to match three for $10"

      There are 180 ways to match three numbers in a full 14 number wheel by matching any 4 of the numbers. Since the abbreviated wheel is guaranteed to match one of them, there are no odds against. There are only 55 ways to match any three numbers so there are odds against getting a three number match by using that abbreviated wheel when only three of the numbers are drawn.

      Any wheel is only as good as the numbers you use. If you can't match all five numbers, you can't win the jackpot or match four by only matching three numbers. And there is no guarantee winning the jackpot by matching all five numbers by playing any wheel that's less than a full combo wheel.


        United States
        Member #116268
        September 7, 2011
        20244 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: July 18, 2012, 4:35 pm - IP Logged

        I see  the numbers were all odd again last night R-316

          I'm thinking  of going to the bank

            setting up a Christmas account

               give it mabey $20- $25  bucks every payday.

                      At the end of the year.......mabey I'll have $300-400   wheeling money

        pull the trigger, and do something          just crazy.

         

         Congrat's on all odd   Group Hug

        Thanks x1,

        I know you have many more 5+0 hits waiting in the wings. And 5+1 is just a matter of time.

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
          United States
          Member #9
          March 24, 2001
          19831 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: July 18, 2012, 4:38 pm - IP Logged

          If you're taking about investing $65,620 a year and making a guaranteed $32,810 profit, you're on to something, but I'm talking about something where the only guarantee is you'll get to play at a greatly reduced cost or get lucky for a short period of time and make a tiny profit. At $20 a drawing, a player would need a four number match every 15 drawings just to show a tiny profit. I got lucky and matched four numbers 4 times in 42 drawings, but that's still only a 42% profit; the rest came from the two and three number matches.

          My average daily winnings were about $11.75, but that's including the $1200 I won by matching four numbers in only 4 of the drawings. Out of 42 drawings, I lost money in at least 36 drawings and had a few where I didn't match even two numbers. I'm talking about actual play when the previous day's winnings were usually less then the cost of the playslips I handed the clerk and I had to make up the difference or $16 to $20 when I only matched two numbers or one or zero.

          I wasn't projecting a 50% or any profit playing forever or even for 6 months or a year; I'm not suggesting it's a winning system at least by my betting strategy. You won't find very many system makers that will mention the downside or explain why they quit using it.

          "170 ways to match four for $300"

          A full 14 number wheel has 2002 combos and 10 ways to match any four numbers. The overall odds are irreverent because a 14 number wheel can't match four numbers when less than four of the numbers are drawn. There are odds against matching the four numbers on the same line when four of the numbers are drawn.

          "5610 ways to match three for $10"

          There are 180 ways to match three numbers in a full 14 number wheel by matching any 4 of the numbers. Since the abbreviated wheel is guaranteed to match one of them, there are no odds against. There are only 55 ways to match any three numbers so there are odds against getting a three number match by using that abbreviated wheel when only three of the numbers are drawn.

          Any wheel is only as good as the numbers you use. If you can't match all five numbers, you can't win the jackpot or match four by only matching three numbers. And there is no guarantee winning the jackpot by matching all five numbers by playing any wheel that's less than a full combo wheel.

          I'm not talking about spending $65,620, I'm talking about spending $1 and coming up with one of those 65,250 combinations with a smart strategy.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       


            United States
            Member #116268
            September 7, 2011
            20244 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: July 18, 2012, 4:50 pm - IP Logged

            I'm not talking about spending $65,620, I'm talking about spending $1 and coming up with one of those 65,250 combinations with a smart strategy.

            I like the idea of playing $65,620. over the course of a year for double that amount in aactual play. You had a great idea that you didn't know you had RJ. I'm sure mc will want a piece of this action.

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
              United States
              Member #9
              March 24, 2001
              19831 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: July 18, 2012, 6:22 pm - IP Logged

              I like the idea of playing $65,620. over the course of a year for double that amount in aactual play. You had a great idea that you didn't know you had RJ. I'm sure mc will want a piece of this action.

              I don't know about the great idea that I didn't know I had but I do know I don't  have $5,000 a year to spend on lotteries let alone $65,000.

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

                Avatar
                Kentucky
                United States
                Member #32652
                February 14, 2006
                7322 Posts
                Online
                Posted: July 18, 2012, 7:53 pm - IP Logged

                I'm not talking about spending $65,620, I'm talking about spending $1 and coming up with one of those 65,250 combinations with a smart strategy.

                According to the Ohio Lottery website the odds of 1 ticket matching four numbers are 3387 to 1.


                  United States
                  Member #116268
                  September 7, 2011
                  20244 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: July 18, 2012, 8:02 pm - IP Logged

                  According to the Ohio Lottery website the odds of 1 ticket matching four numbers are 3387 to 1.

                  That sounds correct Stack considering they keep 90% of the money...... You said you were getting $300. for matching 4 numbers.... so they are taking in $3387. in order to pay out that $300.

                  But we know that you can get "better" odds if your timing is good. 

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                    mid-Ohio
                    United States
                    Member #9
                    March 24, 2001
                    19831 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: July 19, 2012, 12:14 am - IP Logged

                    According to the Ohio Lottery website the odds of 1 ticket matching four numbers are 3387 to 1.

                    That sounds right, 575757 chances divided by 3387 means there are ~170 winning combinations.

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       


                      United States
                      Member #116268
                      September 7, 2011
                      20244 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: July 19, 2012, 1:17 am - IP Logged

                      According to the Ohio Lottery website the odds of 1 ticket matching four numbers are 3387 to 1.

                      Yeah, so every time they take in $3387. they pay out $300.


                        United States
                        Member #128790
                        June 2, 2012
                        5431 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: July 19, 2012, 1:19 am - IP Logged

                        Because the balls are NUMBERED, it is not a random event.

                        If half the balls were RED, and half the balls were BLUE, what would be the odds of getting all red or all blue?

                        Are odds the same for odd/even combinations, because half the balls are odd, and half the balls are even?

                        i think that when someone is aware of pattern, it's because the balls have numbers on them which makes it easier to categorize every behavior possible and make a somewhat educated prediction based on those behaviors. So yes, technically, if there were no numbers on the balls, the attempt to make sense of the chaos under those circumstances would be a waste of time and effort. Without numbers on the balls, no data can be collected and analyzed.

                        i also believe the fact that you are aware of numbers on the balls have an affect on the outcome.


                          United States
                          Member #116268
                          September 7, 2011
                          20244 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: July 19, 2012, 11:32 am - IP Logged

                          i think that when someone is aware of pattern, it's because the balls have numbers on them which makes it easier to categorize every behavior possible and make a somewhat educated prediction based on those behaviors. So yes, technically, if there were no numbers on the balls, the attempt to make sense of the chaos under those circumstances would be a waste of time and effort. Without numbers on the balls, no data can be collected and analyzed.

                          i also believe the fact that you are aware of numbers on the balls have an affect on the outcome.

                          Thank you money,

                          I have been accused of "wasting my time" trying to correctly pick the winning numbers more often than the stated lottery odds. They say it is only "luck" anytime someone hits 5+0.

                            Avatar
                            Kentucky
                            United States
                            Member #32652
                            February 14, 2006
                            7322 Posts
                            Online
                            Posted: July 19, 2012, 3:05 pm - IP Logged

                            That sounds right, 575757 chances divided by 3387 means there are ~170 winning combinations.

                            That brings us right back to the original question.

                            Each 14 number group has 10 four number matches (when four of the numbers are drawn) so each group should average 1 four number match every 17 drawings. While I didn't play the same 14 numbers each drawing, the 14 numbers I played on average matched four numbers once out of every ten drawings. Because we know some groups of numbers HAD better odds in the past we can conclude there are groups that will have better odds in the future.

                            Since the cost of the wheel was $20, I needed one four number match every 15 drawings to show a small profit by matching two or three numbers in the other 14 drawings. My problem wasn't getting better odds, it was finding a group of 14 numbers that matched 5 numbers enough times to make the play worthwhile. The conclusion I reached was 14 numbers weren't enough and adding more numbers increased the cost of play.

                              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                              mid-Ohio
                              United States
                              Member #9
                              March 24, 2001
                              19831 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: July 19, 2012, 4:31 pm - IP Logged

                              That brings us right back to the original question.

                              Each 14 number group has 10 four number matches (when four of the numbers are drawn) so each group should average 1 four number match every 17 drawings. While I didn't play the same 14 numbers each drawing, the 14 numbers I played on average matched four numbers once out of every ten drawings. Because we know some groups of numbers HAD better odds in the past we can conclude there are groups that will have better odds in the future.

                              Since the cost of the wheel was $20, I needed one four number match every 15 drawings to show a small profit by matching two or three numbers in the other 14 drawings. My problem wasn't getting better odds, it was finding a group of 14 numbers that matched 5 numbers enough times to make the play worthwhile. The conclusion I reached was 14 numbers weren't enough and adding more numbers increased the cost of play.

                              That brings us right back to the original question.

                              I think the original question got lost in the chaos of the thread.  What was it?

                               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                                 
                                           Evil Looking       

                                 
                                Page 34 of 353