First, I want to assure you that I am not judging you or your methods.
These forums seem to be all about voodoo practices; some are cloaked in the language of math, but that is only an illusion for the most part. I see no basis to criticize one voodoo practice more than another. Gambling should be entertaining; whatever makes it more fun for you is the right thing to do. (So long as you gamble "responsibly" -- PSA. )
I am only interested in providing factual information that might be useful to someone. How you choose to apply it or ignore it is entirely up to you.
This is just a form of entertainment and recreation for me. "Entertainment" because it is hoot to see the voodoo priests argue over whose practices have more mojo. "Recreation" because I enjoy the math and the opportunity to do some rudimentary programming.
Ronnie316 wrote: "The object is to find a pattern that produces better than average odds and use it to win a jackpot".
The only way to improve the odds is to purchase more tickets with more unique combinations of the prize category(s) you want to match.
The patterns that we see are the result of the random nature of the lottery games. They can be explained either by combinatorial and statistical math or by simulation of the random process.
But I know I'm talking to the hand.
Ronnie316 wrote: "The most recentky drawn 35 numbers produced 17 opportunities to hit 5 of 5 last year".
I don't know what you mean by "most recently drawn 35 numbers". Do you mean the most recent 7 drawings (7*5 = 35)? Or do you mean 35 unique numbers, which often requires looking at more than 7 previous drawings to find?
And I don't know what you mean by "produced 17 opportunities". All sets of 5 or more unique numbers produce "opportunities" to match 5 of 5. A set of 35 unique numbers produces 324,632 "opportunities" .
Previously, you wrote (here): "I'm using past 35 numbers. They hit 5 of 5 last year 17 times".
That seems clearer. But I disagree.
In 2012, there were 4 drawings where all 5 numbers appeared in 7 or fewer earlier drawings: 12/21 (5), 8/21 (6), 7/10 (6) and 3/9 (7).
And there were 13 drawings where all 5 numbers came from the previous 35 or fewer numbers: 12/21 (20), 11/16 (33), 10/5 (33), 9/7 (35), 8/21 (27), 8/10 (34), 7/10 (21), 6/19 (33), 6/1 (35), 4/13 (35), 4/6 (34), 3/19 (29), 2/24 (35).
(I hope there are no typos. I could not figure out how to copy-and-paste tables or images from Excel into this GUI. Well, the table worked; but it was not readable as I intended.)
Hmm, 4+13 = 17. But there are some overlaps (4).
Ronnie316 wrote: "Quoting Stack from an ealier post........ The probability is about 1 in 12 drawings that any 35 numbers should match five numbers or 9 times a year".
The statement is unclear to me because of typos and awkward construction. And I don't know why you are quoting it in this context. I believe Stack47 wrote it to be critical of your approach.
For the MM, the probability "that any [5 of] 35 numbers should match" 5 drawn numbers is 1 in 3,819,816, the same for any 5 numbers. (That ignores whether or not the mega number matches.)
However, if you have a full wheel of all 324,632 combinations of 35 numbers taken 5 at a time, the probability of matching 5 drawn numbers is about 1 in 12 (11.77).
I cannot make sense of "or 9 times a year". If that is "for 9 times a year", I don't know why Stack47 would choose 9, since you talked about 17.
And the probability "that any [5 of] 35 numbers should match" 5 drawn exactly 9 times in a year is infinitesimally small, about 1.6E-47 (1.6 times 10 to the -47 power).
The probability of any of the full wheel combinations matching 9 times in a year is about 13.69%.
Ronnie316 wrote: "I know it creates too many combinations for live play, and thats why I use abrieviated wheels."
A point that you did not mention until now. You did mention it in another thread (here). But usually, I can only know and comment on statements in the current thread. I cannot go traipsing around looking for any relevant statements you might have made in other threads.
If you intend to wheel 35 numbers to ensure a match of 3 of 5 drawn numbers, the ideal wheel would have 655 lines (tickets). Of course, we usually cannot achieve the required coverage in so few lines. But my point is: that is still a lot of tickets, IMHO, even for a pool. It would take at least 11 man-hours to fill out the forms.
(If you can afford that kind of bet twice a week, you could afford to hire a math consultant who can give you better advice than you will ever get in these forums.)
Ostensibly, such a wheel could reduce the odds of matching 3 of 5 to about 1 in 19.5 (19.48). (Again, ignoring whether or not the mega number is matched.) But only if all the lines of the wheel contain unique triads (6545).
I don't believe that will be the case; you can check. But in any case, that still means about a 95% change of not matching 3.
(Of course, there are still the odds of matching 4 or 5 to consider. And there are the odds of matching 1 or 2; but except for bragging rights, that is useful only if you also match the mega number, as I mentioned before.)