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Cali Powerball players: How much wagering for first draw?

Topic closed. 84 replies. Last post 4 years ago by whiteballz.

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California Powerball players: how many lines will you play for the first draw April 10th?

0: going to wait till the jackpot is bigger [ 1 ]  [9.09%]
1: all it takes is 1 [ 1 ]  [9.09%]
2-4: I always have a few favorite numbers [ 4 ]  [36.36%]
5-10: I'll play a bunch, since it's the first PB [ 2 ]  [18.18%]
11-20: more than normal [ 0 ]  [0.00%]
>20: all in baby!!! [ 3 ]  [27.27%]
Total Valid Votes [ 11 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 6 ]  
whiteballz's avatar - Lottery-015.jpg
Nutley, New Jersey
United States
Member #131058
August 1, 2012
875 Posts
Offline
Posted: April 9, 2013, 12:03 am - IP Logged

If a CA wins, the following would be the estimated payment plan based on 2013 tax rate only.
Note that CA lottery winners don't pay local and state taxes, only federal taxes

I use a marginal tax rate calculator.

Jackpot = 60,000,000

Year   % of jackpot     PrizeB4 Taxes      Taxes     Taxes in %  Prize After Taxes
01         1.78%              1,069,806        386,820     36.16%        682,986
02         1.85%              1,112,598        404,150     36.32%        708,448
03         1.93%              1,157,102        422,174     36.49%        734,928
04         2.01%              1,203,386        440,919     36.64%        762,467
05         2.09%              1,251,522        460,415     36.79%        791,107
06         2.17%              1,301,583        480,689     36.93%        820,894
07         2.26%              1,353,646        501,775     37.07%        851,871
08         2.35%              1,407,792        523,704     37.20%        884,088
09         2.44%              1,464,103        546,510     37.33%        917,593
10         2.54%              1,522,668        570,229     37.45%        952,439
11         2.64%              1,583,574        594,896     37.57%        988,678
12         2.74%              1,646,917        620,550     37.68%     1,026,367
13         2.85%              1,712,794        647,230     37.79%     1,065,564
14         2.97%              1,781,306        674,977     37.89%     1,106,329
15         3.09%              1,852,558        703,834     37.99%     1,148,724
16         3.21%              1,926,660        733,845     38.09%     1,192,815
17         3.34%              2,003,727        765,058     38.18%     1,238,669
18         3.47%              2,083,876        797,518     38.27%     1,286,358
19         3.61%              2,167,231        831,277     38.36%     1,335,954
20         3.76%              2,253,920        866,386     38.44%     1,387,534
21         3.91%              2,344,077        902,899     38.52%     1,441,178
22         4.06%              2,437,840        940,873     38.59%     1,496,967
23         4.23%              2,535,353        980,366     38.67%     1,554,987
24         4.39%              2,636,767     1,021,439     38.74%     1,615,328
25         4.57%              2,742,238     1,064,155     38.81%     1,678,083
26         4.75%              2,851,928     1,108,579     38.87%     1,743,349
27         4.94%              2,966,005     1,154,780     38.93%     1,811,225
28         5.14%              3,084,645     1,202,829     38.99%     1,881,816
29         5.35%              3,208,031     1,252,801     39.05%     1,955,230
30         5.56%              3,336,352     1,304,771     39.11%     2,031,581

Total: 100.00%           60,000,003    22,906,448    38.18%   37,093,555

After yearly taxes, the winner would receive approx 37.1 million dollars overall.

Does it sound about right or am I way off?

that sounds about right. The problem I have is we are going to assume for the next 30 years, federal taxes won't rise and California will never tax lottery winnings.

If you did this analysis last year, the top tax rate for federal was 35% and then what ended up happening?

.

    noise-gate's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcR91HDs4UJhjxO7cmeMQWZ5lB_FOcMLOGicau4V74R45tDgPWrr
    Bay Area - California
    United States
    Member #136477
    December 12, 2012
    4102 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: April 9, 2013, 12:20 am - IP Logged

    OK, I got mine. Representin' for the most populous county in Cali and the USofA:

    PowerballTicket

    Brisk sales are being reported for Powerball here in CA. Expect the jackpot / cash value to be higher than MM by the time the draw comes around.

    Whoa Jon- you put down some serious cash for a first time dude. l had said that l would wait till Wednesday but that was not to be. l pulled into a gas station today and somehow found myself looking at the powerball slips and bought 3 tickets. l'm 2 days early but whose counting. In any event l have not seen " lines"  in my neck of the woods for PB. However if & when the JP is at $200mil plus, l think one will see " lines going around the block".

      CowboysFan's avatar - Cowboys
      Sunny California
      United States
      Member #63790
      August 8, 2008
      220 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: April 9, 2013, 12:28 am - IP Logged

      "...will use that QP the rest of my life..."

      Even if the numbers are 54 - 55 - 56 - 57 - 58 + 35?

      The QP has a good set of numbers.

        redhot7's avatar - SetforLifeLogo
        California
        United States
        Member #112364
        June 17, 2011
        661 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: April 9, 2013, 2:57 am - IP Logged

        that sounds about right. The problem I have is we are going to assume for the next 30 years, federal taxes won't rise and California will never tax lottery winnings.

        If you did this analysis last year, the top tax rate for federal was 35% and then what ended up happening?

        That's a very good question.

        I recalculated the payment plan based on 2012 tax rate.

        I used the 2012 version of marginal tax rate calculator from the same website.

        Here's what I found.

        Jackpot = 60,000,000

        Year   % of jackpot  PrizeB4 Taxes   Taxes    Taxes in %  Prize After Taxes
        01           1.78%      1,069,806        347,781     32.51%        722,025
        02           1.85%      1,112,598        362,758     32.60%        749,840
        03           1.93%      1,157,102        378,334     32.70%        778,768
        04           2.01%      1,203,386        394,534     32.79%        808,852
        05           2.09%      1,251,522        411,381     32.87%        840,141
        06           2.17%      1,301,583        428,903     32.95%        872,680
        07           2.26%      1,353,646        447,125     33.03%        906,521
        08           2.35%      1,407,792        466,076     33.11%        941,716
        09           2.44%      1,464,103        485,785     33.18%        978,318
        10           2.54%      1,522,668        506,282     33.25%     1,016,386
        11           2.64%      1,583,574        527,599     33.32%     1,055,975
        12           2.74%      1,646,917        549,769     33.38%     1,097,148
        13           2.85%      1,712,794        572,826     33.44%     1,139,968
        14           2.97%      1,781,306        596,806     33.50%     1,184,500
        15           3.09%      1,852,558        621,744     33.56%     1,230,814
        16           3.21%      1,926,660        647,680     33.62%     1,278,980
        17           3.34%      2,003,727        674,653     33.67%     1,329,074
        18           3.47%      2,083,876        702,705     33.72%     1,381,171
        19           3.61%      2,167,231        731,879     33.77%     1,435,352
        20           3.76%      2,253,920        762,221     33.82%     1,491,699
        21           3.91%      2,344,077        793,775     33.86%     1,550,302
        22           4.06%      2,437,840        826,593     33.91%     1,611,247
        23           4.23%      2,535,353        860,722     33.95%     1,674,631
        24           4.39%      2,636,767        896,217     33.99%     1,740,550
        25           4.57%      2,742,238        933,132     34.03%     1,809,106
        26           4.75%      2,851,928        971,523     34.07%     1,880,405
        27           4.94%      2,966,005     1,011,450     34.10%     1,954,555
        28           5.14%      3,084,645     1,052,974     34.14%     2,031,671
        29           5.35%      3,208,031     1,096,159     34.17%     2,111,872
        30           5.56%      3,336,352     1,141,072     34.20%     2,195,280

        Total:  100.00%    60,000,003   20,200,458     33.67%   39,799,545

        Overall taxes based on 2012 tax rate: 33.67%
        Overall taxes based on 2013 tax rate: 38.18%
        % difference                                       :   4.51%

        Overall prize over the course of 30 years based on 2012 tax rate: 39,799,545
        Overall prize over the course of 30 years based on 2013 tax rate: 37,093,555
        Overall difference                                                                           :   2,705,990

          redhot7's avatar - SetforLifeLogo
          California
          United States
          Member #112364
          June 17, 2011
          661 Posts
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          Posted: April 9, 2013, 11:41 am - IP Logged

          The cash value for current PB is 38.9 million dollars. How much does the jackpot winner need to pay for the federal taxes? The online calculator I posted wouldn't let me enter an income for more than 10 million dollars.

          There is no California state taxes for lottery winners.

            Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
            Los Angeles, California
            United States
            Member #103813
            January 5, 2011
            1530 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: April 9, 2013, 3:45 pm - IP Logged

            The cash value for current PB is 38.9 million dollars. How much does the jackpot winner need to pay for the federal taxes? The online calculator I posted wouldn't let me enter an income for more than 10 million dollars.

            There is no California state taxes for lottery winners.

            Uncle Sam is automatically sent 25% by the lottery, so you would have to set aside and take care of the remaining 14.6% on your own:

            http://www.usamega.com/powerball-jackpot.asp

            That leaves with with about 23.3M from 38.9M cash value.

            You can't really calculate exact effective tax rate unless you make some arbitrary assumptions about your other income. Would have to consider the marginal tax rates, other income and deductions, FICA, etc. But unless you make a ton of money already, the difference will be small compared to the jackpot. So I just figure 40% goes to Uncle Sam, you keep the rest.(in CA at least...)

              Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
              Los Angeles, California
              United States
              Member #103813
              January 5, 2011
              1530 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: April 9, 2013, 3:51 pm - IP Logged

              Whoa Jon- you put down some serious cash for a first time dude. l had said that l would wait till Wednesday but that was not to be. l pulled into a gas station today and somehow found myself looking at the powerball slips and bought 3 tickets. l'm 2 days early but whose counting. In any event l have not seen " lines"  in my neck of the woods for PB. However if & when the JP is at $200mil plus, l think one will see " lines going around the block".

              Just splurged on this first draw because it's the first Powerball in CA. After this, will only have 1 line on each PB draw unless the jackpot is over $200M or so.

              I figure there are probably a lot of other people doing the same thing, buying a lot more than they normally would on the inaugural PB draw. That's kinda the reason for the poll. But now wondering why there are so many discards.(anonymous haters?)

              Only saw long lines of people on the news, when the reporters go to those "lucky" liquor stores like when MM jackpot is huge. I never have lines when I go to my stores even when it is high. Think its kinda silly to wait in line for a draw/lotto game, as location of purchase is irrelevent for number games.

                redhot7's avatar - SetforLifeLogo
                California
                United States
                Member #112364
                June 17, 2011
                661 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: April 9, 2013, 4:41 pm - IP Logged

                Uncle Sam is automatically sent 25% by the lottery, so you would have to set aside and take care of the remaining 14.6% on your own:

                http://www.usamega.com/powerball-jackpot.asp

                That leaves with with about 23.3M from 38.9M cash value.

                You can't really calculate exact effective tax rate unless you make some arbitrary assumptions about your other income. Would have to consider the marginal tax rates, other income and deductions, FICA, etc. But unless you make a ton of money already, the difference will be small compared to the jackpot. So I just figure 40% goes to Uncle Sam, you keep the rest.(in CA at least...)

                For 23.3M cash after taxes, it would take 22 to 23 years before the accumulated annuity prizes reach that level.

                Hmmm!

                  rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                  Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
                  United States
                  Member #73904
                  April 28, 2009
                  14903 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: April 9, 2013, 4:53 pm - IP Logged

                  I think it would be naive to think California will go much longer without a tax on lottery winnings with the shape they're in financially.

                  Somebody has to pay for all of those humongous pensions for all those retiring government officials.

                  And with Powerball being in the news so much lately, you know it's gonna cross Governor Moonbeam's mind.

                  Maybe I'll give him a call to see if he's been thinkin' about it.


                                                               
                                       
                                                           

                   

                   

                   

                   

                                                                                                                     

                  "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                              --Edmund Burke

                   

                   

                    dallascowboyfan's avatar - tiana the-princess-and-the-frog.jpg
                    Oklahoma
                    United States
                    Member #82391
                    November 12, 2009
                    6290 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: April 9, 2013, 9:29 pm - IP Logged

                    I bought 2 tickets.  I picked the numbers for one and got one QP and since it is my first time buying a Poweball ticket will use that QP the rest of my life or until it hits the jackpot for me.Banana

                    Thumbs Up

                    I Love Pink & Green 1908

                      Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                      Los Angeles, California
                      United States
                      Member #103813
                      January 5, 2011
                      1530 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: April 10, 2013, 4:34 pm - IP Logged

                      Yep, sure enough, the CA Powerball brisk ticket sales are for real:

                      Powerball in California: First day brings in record $3.1 million in its first 24 hours.

                      Recommended news story.

                        redhot7's avatar - SetforLifeLogo
                        California
                        United States
                        Member #112364
                        June 17, 2011
                        661 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: April 10, 2013, 4:43 pm - IP Logged

                        Yep, sure enough, the CA Powerball brisk ticket sales are for real:

                        Powerball in California: First day brings in record $3.1 million in its first 24 hours.

                        Recommended news story.

                        In just the first 24 hours of POWERBALL sales in California, Lottery players snapped up a national record-setting $3,101,816 in tickets.

                        I hope they will give a full account for the 2nd day sale as well. I would be interesting to find out how much money Californians spent vs how much will go back to us as prizes.

                          whiteballz's avatar - Lottery-015.jpg
                          Nutley, New Jersey
                          United States
                          Member #131058
                          August 1, 2012
                          875 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: April 10, 2013, 8:24 pm - IP Logged

                          Yep, sure enough, the CA Powerball brisk ticket sales are for real:

                          Powerball in California: First day brings in record $3.1 million in its first 24 hours.

                          Recommended news story.

                          I don't see it on the home page.

                          .

                            Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                            Los Angeles, California
                            United States
                            Member #103813
                            January 5, 2011
                            1530 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: April 10, 2013, 9:12 pm - IP Logged

                            I don't see it on the home page.

                            I only submitted the story, the Chief Bottle Washer decides if it's newsworthy.(guess it isn't..)

                            It's only a small record. The LA Times reported that the 3.1 million sales shattered the previous first-day record set by Florida, which debuted Powerball in 2009 and sales topped $1.5 million that day, and also spurred some other business in the process. I'm sure other records will fall in the future with CA in the PB mix.

                              Avatar
                              New Member
                              California
                              United States
                              Member #138188
                              January 21, 2013
                              21 Posts
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                              Posted: April 10, 2013, 9:31 pm - IP Logged

                              I won the jackpot 5 times on the little practice game they had on the CA lottery website lol, does that count for anything?