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Lottery Code has already been broken

Topic closed. 500 replies. Last post 4 years ago by superstar$.

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Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
Texas
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Posted: June 3, 2013, 1:09 pm - IP Logged

The problem with pre-draws are they are selling the games as random events when they are not. If it were truly random, ALL COMBINATIONS WILL BE PLAYED AT A FIXED SET OF DRAWINGS. By doing pre-draws, you effectively tamper with THE SET.

Absolutely...and those pre-test numbers must be factored in somehow as they were drawn during the process enroute to an official draw result. In my opinion, there's no need for pre or post tests. Once they start the machine, and the agitation process begins, every ball will still have an equal chance of being selected based solely on agitation.

The present draw process, in my opinion, hinders a system's efficiency when implemented blindly. Just my .02

 

L.L. 

Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

#lotto-4-a-living

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    Kentucky
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    Posted: June 3, 2013, 2:08 pm - IP Logged

    Frankly, I've never really worried about the pre draw tests. I look at them from time to time out of curiosity, and learned that they publish the test results before the actual drawing. I do think that that many tests are over the top, but I also believe that the Texas Lottery Commission is very transparent in how they do business.

    It's because the Texas Lottery Commission decided to be very transparent. Someone asked for the pre-tests to be published and they simply did it and also defined their method to determine if there might be a flaw in a ball set.

    At one time the Ohio Lottery uses 12 different machines to draw three pick-3 digits, four pick-4 digits, and the five Kicker digits. They also had two other machines for their Lotto and Buckeye Five games. If they never changed the ball sets in each machine, they could still switched the 12 machines and have the same random effect.

    Ohio had a live drawing at center court of a Cavs' game and ran tests before the live drawing to make sure each machine functioned and to make sure the cameras were focused. Someone in the stands yelled "I won, I won" after the first test drawing.

    I can see both points of view because the lotteries want insure a random drawing with all the machines functioning properly and it can create problems for systems players.

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      Kentucky
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      Posted: June 3, 2013, 2:35 pm - IP Logged

      rcbbuckeye,

      I agree - a very sensible observation.

      On the other hand, Stack47 says,

      "If the drawing is random we should expect every once in a while to see a digit drawn drawn four consecutive times, but Texas decided if it happens the fifth time the drawing isn't be random..."
       
      "...If you ever see where a digit was drawn in four consecutive drawings, it can't be drawn in the next because if it was, the drawing can't be random."

      If you ever see a digit drawn in 4 consecutive official drawings, you can rest assured [at least in TX] there were multiple pretests interleaved with them, possibly even ball set changes between them.  So, there is no reason this digit can't appear for the 5th time in the official drawing.

      If pretests like those described here had been the policy in PA in 1980, the "PA Event" would have been a "NON Event" because the plot would have been foiled before the official draw.

      --Jimmy4164

      "If you ever see a digit drawn in 4 consecutive official drawings, you can rest assured [at least in TX] there were multiple pretests interleaved with them"

      They will change a ball set if a digit is drawn in 4 consecutive tests, but that doesn't change the fact a digit can be drawn in 4 consecutive live drawings. What's your point?

        Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
        Texas
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        Posted: June 3, 2013, 2:49 pm - IP Logged

        It's because the Texas Lottery Commission decided to be very transparent. Someone asked for the pre-tests to be published and they simply did it and also defined their method to determine if there might be a flaw in a ball set.

        At one time the Ohio Lottery uses 12 different machines to draw three pick-3 digits, four pick-4 digits, and the five Kicker digits. They also had two other machines for their Lotto and Buckeye Five games. If they never changed the ball sets in each machine, they could still switched the 12 machines and have the same random effect.

        Ohio had a live drawing at center court of a Cavs' game and ran tests before the live drawing to make sure each machine functioned and to make sure the cameras were focused. Someone in the stands yelled "I won, I won" after the first test drawing.

        I can see both points of view because the lotteries want insure a random drawing with all the machines functioning properly and it can create problems for systems players.

        Glad to see you step in, Stack. I have described, in the past, where players I know have won during the first pre-test after the last official draw. This is where no post-draw was conducted as well. From one single draw to the very next, based on real-time numbers, a certain percentage of efficiency is to be expected with a reasonable approach. Numbers can only do so much, by design, in the smaller games.

        When pre-tests are conducted, they're re-entering and increasing the likelihood of anything that's already occurred to re-occur. Hence, a player's filtering process becomes tricky as they don't know what to leave in or remove from their set. Sure, they publish all the results. However, it becomes a completely different argument when discussing the "actual" numbers a player has to work with in real time based on a true last draw. Timing is the issue. Agree or disagree?

         

        L.L.

        Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

        There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

        #lotto-4-a-living

          hennybogan's avatar - DiscoBallGlowing
          McKinney/Texas
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          November 1, 2006
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          Posted: June 3, 2013, 2:59 pm - IP Logged

          The code has already been broken in the 1930's and 40's. If codes that are 10 times harder than your average JP game, or higher, and have been beaten 70 to 80 years ago, imagine what they know now.

          You want proof?, just watch the video. A Polish guy broke a code that was supposedly unpenetratable.

          The ones who know about it are keeping quiet. I'm sure their life is in stake.

          Thanks for the post but WWII was sixty years ago. I do not share your belief that their LIVES ARE AT STAKE.  Moreover, a messge is NOT A RANDOM event.

          Lottery games are comprised of RANDOM EVENTS, and using any system on the planet - even Enigma - will not help you very much.

          I do believe, however, that nothing is really random.  Every event has a cause.  When things do appear to be random, it is because we have not determined the cause.

            Ephesians 3:20


            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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            Posted: June 3, 2013, 3:24 pm - IP Logged

            Thanks for the post but WWII was sixty years ago. I do not share your belief that their LIVES ARE AT STAKE.  Moreover, a messge is NOT A RANDOM event.

            Lottery games are comprised of RANDOM EVENTS, and using any system on the planet - even Enigma - will not help you very much.

            I do believe, however, that nothing is really random.  Every event has a cause.  When things do appear to be random, it is because we have not determined the cause.

            While it might be true lottery games are random events, some lottery officials or at least some at MegaMillions feel players are matching the winning numbers too often. 

            When officials came up with the last matrix of MM and PB they were projecting regular jackpots of over $200M to $500M and it just haven't happened very often.   Could it be some system players are getting luckier than random would suggest?

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

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              Posted: June 3, 2013, 6:18 pm - IP Logged

              The problem with pre-draws are they are selling the games as random events when they are not. If it were truly random, ALL COMBINATIONS WILL BE PLAYED AT A FIXED SET OF DRAWINGS. By doing pre-draws, you effectively tamper with THE SET.

              I see where your misunderstanding is now. There are a few things:

               

              1. Your proposition is NOT random at all! Here's an example. Let's say we're drawing 1 ball, from 1-5. After four draws, the numbers 2, 3, 1, 5 came up. By your standard, the number for the fifth draw MUST be 4. So how is that random? What random means, is that the probability of the events are not affected by other events. This brings to point

               

              2. This is where you and lucky loser and millions of other people are stuck on. It's called the Gambler's Fallacy. Let's say I flip a coin 9 times, and it was heads every time. I flip the coin again, what's the probability I get heads again? It's actually 1/2, same as if I never fliped the coin 9 times in the first place. The fact is, previous draws, events, whatever HAS ABSOLUTELY NO AFFECT ON THE COMING DRAW. Absolutely none. To put it in a not-so-nice way, anyone who's playing "wheels" or whatever systems based on past results are fooling themselves.

               

              3. The lottery doesn't "prevent" any numbers from being used. Again, pre-draws have absolutely no bearing on the current draw. It doesn't change the probability of any combination at all.

               

              You guys keep arguing semantics over what is "random". But really, does that matter? We can call it chair or wfiejfiwefs if you want. As Shakespeare said, "a rose by any other name is just as sweet". It doesn't matter whether it's called "random" or not. If you don't want to call it random, I propose another word for you: "fair". The lottery is fair. What I mean is, every single combination of numbers could come up with the exact same probability. Let's just assume that the world is completely pre-determined. The drawing is thus not random. But you know what? If no one has the ability to know those numbers beforehand, then the lottery IS fair. Everyone has an equal chance of winning. That's how it should be.

               

              You guys are essentially complaining (or at least lucky loser is) that the lottery is not giving you a way to exploit it. Given the choice, I'd much prefer a lottery that's fair to everyone playing (no one can exploit it with any of their systems) than a lottery where only "smart" "systematic" players will win the hard-earned money of those who aren't as "smart". A game like that is certainly NOT random. Nor is it fair.


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                Posted: June 3, 2013, 6:22 pm - IP Logged

                I would never play at a casino.

                 

                But assuming I did, if they told me it was a pre-spin BEFORE, they spinned it, I would have no problems with it. If they said it afterwards, I'd agree with you.

                 

                But the lottery tells you about the pre-draws. Maybe I'm just stupid, but I can't see a single benefit for the lottery by conducting pre-draws, other than to ensure security and fairness of the game. If you can point out any other benefits, I'd be glad to hear.-

                 Maybe I'm just stupid

                 

                Thanks for sparing me the endless explanations. Disapprove

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                  Posted: June 3, 2013, 6:28 pm - IP Logged

                   Maybe I'm just stupid

                   

                  Thanks for sparing me the endless explanations. Disapprove

                  If you couldn't comprehend what I said, maybe you are stupid, like you're saying :)

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                    CHERRY HILL, NJ
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                    Posted: June 3, 2013, 6:33 pm - IP Logged

                    I see where your misunderstanding is now. There are a few things:

                     

                    1. Your proposition is NOT random at all! Here's an example. Let's say we're drawing 1 ball, from 1-5. After four draws, the numbers 2, 3, 1, 5 came up. By your standard, the number for the fifth draw MUST be 4. So how is that random? What random means, is that the probability of the events are not affected by other events. This brings to point

                     

                    2. This is where you and lucky loser and millions of other people are stuck on. It's called the Gambler's Fallacy. Let's say I flip a coin 9 times, and it was heads every time. I flip the coin again, what's the probability I get heads again? It's actually 1/2, same as if I never fliped the coin 9 times in the first place. The fact is, previous draws, events, whatever HAS ABSOLUTELY NO AFFECT ON THE COMING DRAW. Absolutely none. To put it in a not-so-nice way, anyone who's playing "wheels" or whatever systems based on past results are fooling themselves.

                     

                    3. The lottery doesn't "prevent" any numbers from being used. Again, pre-draws have absolutely no bearing on the current draw. It doesn't change the probability of any combination at all.

                     

                    You guys keep arguing semantics over what is "random". But really, does that matter? We can call it chair or wfiejfiwefs if you want. As Shakespeare said, "a rose by any other name is just as sweet". It doesn't matter whether it's called "random" or not. If you don't want to call it random, I propose another word for you: "fair". The lottery is fair. What I mean is, every single combination of numbers could come up with the exact same probability. Let's just assume that the world is completely pre-determined. The drawing is thus not random. But you know what? If no one has the ability to know those numbers beforehand, then the lottery IS fair. Everyone has an equal chance of winning. That's how it should be.

                     

                    You guys are essentially complaining (or at least lucky loser is) that the lottery is not giving you a way to exploit it. Given the choice, I'd much prefer a lottery that's fair to everyone playing (no one can exploit it with any of their systems) than a lottery where only "smart" "systematic" players will win the hard-earned money of those who aren't as "smart". A game like that is certainly NOT random. Nor is it fair.

                    You said the probability of getting heads or tails in flipping a coin is 1/2. So if you flip it 9 times and keep on getting heads then the 1/2 probability will not hold true. 

                    What math is saying and proven is that if you keep on flipping everything will average out and you will eventually come close to getting an even heads and tails results. When you reach this point, you are said to complete a SET.

                    What happens with the pre-draws is you will never get to complete the SET because you are intervening on what the actual results are. So theoretically, people should be able just to stand by and watch as the SET completes and then play. But without an accurate recording, you are left with bad data. And yet they advertise everything as RANDOM. Random, they are not.

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                      Posted: June 3, 2013, 6:40 pm - IP Logged

                      You said the probability of getting heads or tails in flipping a coin is 1/2. So if you flip it 9 times and keep on getting heads then the 1/2 probability will not hold true. 

                      What math is saying and proven is that if you keep on flipping everything will average out and you will eventually come close to getting an even heads and tails results. When you reach this point, you are said to complete a SET.

                      What happens with the pre-draws is you will never get to complete the SET because you are intervening on what the actual results are. So theoretically, people should be able just to stand by and watch as the SET completes and then play. But without an accurate recording, you are left with bad data. And yet they advertise everything as RANDOM. Random, they are not.

                      I'm sorry, but you are wrong. There's no such thing as a "SET". Not the kind you're talking about, anyway. Unfortunately  I don't know if I'm allowed to post links yet, last time it told me I only get 1 warning, so I'm not going to risk it.

                       

                      Please go search Gambler's fallacy in wikipedia or elsewhere. You'll see that I'm right.

                       

                      The point here, is that previous results has absolutely no bearing on the current results. So it doesn't matter whether pre-draws are done or not. To give you an example, Let's say there's another Powerball game in Iran. Would the results from their draws affect your so-called SET as well?

                       

                      Another example. Andy flipped a coin 9 times, all came up as heads. Now Jill flips a coin; does Andy's flips somehow affect Jill? No. So why should Jill's previous flips be any different?


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                        Posted: June 3, 2013, 6:45 pm - IP Logged

                        I'm sorry, but you are wrong. There's no such thing as a "SET". Not the kind you're talking about, anyway. Unfortunately  I don't know if I'm allowed to post links yet, last time it told me I only get 1 warning, so I'm not going to risk it.

                         

                        Please go search Gambler's fallacy in wikipedia or elsewhere. You'll see that I'm right.

                         

                        The point here, is that previous results has absolutely no bearing on the current results. So it doesn't matter whether pre-draws are done or not. To give you an example, Let's say there's another Powerball game in Iran. Would the results from their draws affect your so-called SET as well?

                         

                        Another example. Andy flipped a coin 9 times, all came up as heads. Now Jill flips a coin; does Andy's flips somehow affect Jill? No. So why should Jill's previous flips be any different?

                        Surely, if you flip a coin and it shows heads 12 times in a row, it has the same chance as showing the 13th time, but what would YOU bet on?

                        Wink

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                          Posted: June 3, 2013, 6:50 pm - IP Logged

                          depends on the odds you offer :)


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                            Posted: June 3, 2013, 6:53 pm - IP Logged

                            depends on the odds you offer :)

                            When flipping coins there's only two choices, which means 50/50. Crazy

                            If I were you I'd check the water you're drinking.

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                              CHERRY HILL, NJ
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                              Posted: June 3, 2013, 6:54 pm - IP Logged

                              I'm sorry, but you are wrong. There's no such thing as a "SET". Not the kind you're talking about, anyway. Unfortunately  I don't know if I'm allowed to post links yet, last time it told me I only get 1 warning, so I'm not going to risk it.

                               

                              Please go search Gambler's fallacy in wikipedia or elsewhere. You'll see that I'm right.

                               

                              The point here, is that previous results has absolutely no bearing on the current results. So it doesn't matter whether pre-draws are done or not. To give you an example, Let's say there's another Powerball game in Iran. Would the results from their draws affect your so-called SET as well?

                               

                              Another example. Andy flipped a coin 9 times, all came up as heads. Now Jill flips a coin; does Andy's flips somehow affect Jill? No. So why should Jill's previous flips be any different?

                              What I am saying is in Math, the 1 in 2 chance will eventually be proven true. So if Andy flips it 9 times and its all heads, how does the 1 in 2 become true. It will become true when you let Andy keep on flipping and at the end, the distribution of flips should even out, equal parts head, equal parts tails, 1 in 2. It may take 18 flips or 180 or 1800 flips but it will happen. When you get to 9/9 or 90/90 or 900/900 even heads and tails, and you keep flipping then you begin a new SET. Because the 9/9, 90/90 or 900/900 already proved right the 1 in 2 chance. Read more about SET THEORY.

                              Now if you skip recording the results from Jills flip, then you might not get there in 18 flips or 180 or 1800 flips.

                                 
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