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MegaMillions is ready to be won again

Topic closed. 116 replies. Last post 2 years ago by KY Floyd.

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Happy California
United States
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August 2, 2014
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Posted: January 5, 2015, 9:18 pm - IP Logged

I Agree! a cool billion would be the talk of the nation and the Western Countries.

    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
    Zeta Reticuli Star System
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    January 17, 2006
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    Posted: January 6, 2015, 12:06 am - IP Logged

    Most of the time you will miss either one or two numbers. Patterns of numbers are not 100% accurate and also depending how they run. Wish you best of luck on your lines.

    Wow, that's really optimistic.

    It's been my experience that regardless of the game played or tickets bought most of the time you will hit whatever does not pay, 0 numbers in Pick 5, 0 or 1 in a state Pick6, 0 or 1 + 0 or 2 + 0 in 5 + 1 games, etc..... that's the way the games are set up.

    Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

    Lep

    There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
      United States
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      March 24, 2001
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      Posted: January 6, 2015, 12:24 am - IP Logged

      PartyWould be a nice birthday present.

      It's not close to being my birthday but winning would make a nice present regardless.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        str8ca$hhomie's avatar - Cash

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        August 22, 2013
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        Posted: January 6, 2015, 12:44 am - IP Logged

        It's not unusual for the pattern to be there even when none of the winning numbers are, after all the pattern occurs 2-2.7% of the time even though no combination has ever repeated.  It's kinda like playing combinations that add up to certain sums in the number games, you can have the sum correct and not have anything close to winning number.

        Thanks for your sound advice, RJOH. I chickened out with the discipline, however, and slightly modified the pattern (sequence) for 2015. Let's see what happens !

        Sometimes it's extremely difficult if not practically impossible to get people to disregard the smoke and mirrors.  Instead, they seem to enjoy the ride down the proverbial Garden Path....... helpless to extricate themselves from being totally deceived by known forces in their midst who would argue that they have come here for the sole purpose of helping people.......str8ca$hhomie

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          NY
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          October 16, 2005
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          Posted: January 7, 2015, 1:03 am - IP Logged

          Well patterns aside, MM just passed the 75% cumulative probability sales threshold, so you may be onto something regarding its readiness for being hit!

          I expect it to be won within the next 6-7 draws and may play if I can scrape together a cup of change. Good luck Wink

          "won within the next 6-7 draws"

          My first thought was to kid you about going out on a limb with such a bold prediction. Then I remembered how MM tickets have been selling lately and decided it really is a bold prediction.

          A bit past 1AM, and we still don't even know if it was hit tonight. Are they using their old Tandy 1000 to search the database?


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            February 13, 2011
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            Posted: January 7, 2015, 10:13 am - IP Logged

            No winner last night.  Like I said, billion $ jackpot here we come!  It's now way too hard to win!

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              Happyland
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              September 1, 2013
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              Posted: January 7, 2015, 10:40 am - IP Logged

              No winner last night.  Like I said, billion $ jackpot here we come!  It's now way too hard to win!

              That would be nice! Doubtful though, I would say less than 5% chance of even coming close. If my projections are correct it should top out at between $400 million and $515 million annuity. Of course it could hit next draw Green laughbut another $200-$400 million in sales would have it aligned to longterm expectancy quite nicely.

              If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
              If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

              2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
              P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                Groppo's avatar - cat anm.gif

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                January 7, 2015
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                Posted: January 7, 2015, 11:10 am - IP Logged

                It seems now that it's "too hard" to win.  I think the setup is in place for a billion $ jackpot!  I'd love to see that!

                But now, how you gonna spind a billion dollas, when you aint even got to da millions yet?
                da billions prize gonna git here.  let's jes stick wif da millions fo' now.

                  hearsetrax's avatar - 0118

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                  Posted: January 7, 2015, 11:34 am - IP Logged

                  But now, how you gonna spind a billion dollas, when you aint even got to da millions yet?
                  da billions prize gonna git here.  let's jes stick wif da millions fo' now.

                  if spending a few million dollars is to hard to spend 4 you now, a billion will make your head explode jejeje

                  I could spend a 1/2 of a billion in my sleep

                    Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
                    Indiana
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                    Posted: January 7, 2015, 11:43 am - IP Logged

                    Good luck RJOh.

                    Gonna win.Big Smile

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                      California
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                      April 7, 2013
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                      Posted: January 7, 2015, 12:26 pm - IP Logged

                      if spending a few million dollars is to hard to spend 4 you now, a billion will make your head explode jejeje

                      I could spend a 1/2 of a billion in my sleep

                      how would you spend half a billion?

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                        Wyomissing, PA
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                        November 15, 2014
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                        Posted: January 7, 2015, 12:32 pm - IP Logged

                        "won within the next 6-7 draws"

                        My first thought was to kid you about going out on a limb with such a bold prediction. Then I remembered how MM tickets have been selling lately and decided it really is a bold prediction.

                        A bit past 1AM, and we still don't even know if it was hit tonight. Are they using their old Tandy 1000 to search the database?

                        Each MM (and likewise with PB) jurisdiction maintains its own numbers file, and hence the delay in posting the results.

                        As for the billion dollar annuity jackpot, that could be some time coming. Many occasional players don't even bother until the news media is hyping far and wide that the jackpot being record huge. My guess is it will take at least a couple more roll-overs to get to the $400+ million range before the buying frenzy really kicks in.

                        On a related note, as many savvy players know, the "cash value" is really the number to go by; comparing to other past record jackpots. Mega Millions and Powerball use various accounting methods to further inflate the annuity size, such as graduated payouts (varying amounts over time) and spreading the annuity payments to upwards of 30 years; used to be less. It wouldn't surprise me, if at some point, MM and/or PB payments go beyond 30 years to say 35 or even 40.

                        All in all, it would take a $1.5 billion annuity jackpot to truly be anything even close to a $1 billion cash jackpot. So far no record MM / PB jackpot has even come close with the largest cash value to date being ~$474 million. And that's not even getting into the issue of taxes. Factor that in, and it would take an annuity jackpot of upwards of $2.8 billion (over $3B, if also taxed at state level) for someone to truly win their way into the billionaires club.

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                          California
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                          April 7, 2013
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                          Posted: January 7, 2015, 12:54 pm - IP Logged

                          Each MM (and likewise with PB) jurisdiction maintains its own numbers file, and hence the delay in posting the results.

                          As for the billion dollar annuity jackpot, that could be some time coming. Many occasional players don't even bother until the news media is hyping far and wide that the jackpot being record huge. My guess is it will take at least a couple more roll-overs to get to the $400+ million range before the buying frenzy really kicks in.

                          On a related note, as many savvy players know, the "cash value" is really the number to go by; comparing to other past record jackpots. Mega Millions and Powerball use various accounting methods to further inflate the annuity size, such as graduated payouts (varying amounts over time) and spreading the annuity payments to upwards of 30 years; used to be less. It wouldn't surprise me, if at some point, MM and/or PB payments go beyond 30 years to say 35 or even 40.

                          All in all, it would take a $1.5 billion annuity jackpot to truly be anything even close to a $1 billion cash jackpot. So far no record MM / PB jackpot has even come close with the largest cash value to date being ~$474 million. And that's not even getting into the issue of taxes. Factor that in, and it would take an annuity jackpot of upwards of $2.8 billion (over $3B, if also taxed at state level) for someone to truly win their way into the billionaires club.

                          It wouldn't surprise me, if at some point, MM and/or PB payments go beyond 30 years to say 35 or even 40.

                          I think the 30 year annuity is based mostly off the 30 year US treasury. Since there are no 35 or 40 year US treasuries, I don't know how the lotteries could promise a 35 or 40 year annuity.

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                            East of Columbus, OH
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                            December 28, 2011
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                            Posted: January 7, 2015, 1:28 pm - IP Logged

                            That would be nice! Doubtful though, I would say less than 5% chance of even coming close. If my projections are correct it should top out at between $400 million and $515 million annuity. Of course it could hit next draw Green laughbut another $200-$400 million in sales would have it aligned to longterm expectancy quite nicely.

                            I'm thinking it's gonna hit somewhere in the 330-345 million dollar range.

                            Life's Too Short To Be Unhappy Cool

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                              Wyomissing, PA
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                              Posted: January 7, 2015, 2:46 pm - IP Logged

                              It wouldn't surprise me, if at some point, MM and/or PB payments go beyond 30 years to say 35 or even 40.

                              I think the 30 year annuity is based mostly off the 30 year US treasury. Since there are no 35 or 40 year US treasuries, I don't know how the lotteries could promise a 35 or 40 year annuity.

                              It may be based on 30 year treasury bond, but doesn't mean it's invested in that. Many players assume since lotteries are government sanctioned, that the annuities are government backed, but that's often not so. Below is an excerpt from PA Lottery FAQ page regarding annuities:

                              -------

                              What happens to the prize money if a company who got an annuity bid goes bankrupt?

                              Published 08/04/2003 01:14 PM   |    Updated 10/21/2010 04:23 PM
                              What happens to the prize money if a company who got an annuity bid goes bankrupt?

                              The obligation to pay the prize is based upon contract law. The method that the state uses to fund the prize is a business decision. During a three-month period in 1986, the Lottery funded prizes through the purchase of Treasury notes, but then switched to annuity contracts. If we purchase an annuity from a company that goes bankrupt, the state still has a contractual obligation, so the Lottery would pay the prize.

                              As a footnote, although we do use the lowest bid, it is the lowest bid from a bidder that qualifies to submit a quote. Those insurance companies qualifying are all companies whose names are easily recognizable to the general public. In addition we have a limit on the amount of outstanding obligations we fund through any one company.

                              -------

                              To be clear, PA Lottery indicates they'd step in and cover an annuity contract default of a prize annuity, but under contract law as opposed to being directly government backed. And hence, it's possible for a lottery, which many already do for "win for life" games (that's why many don't allow splitting; player's age and other details are utilized to determine cost of a life payout annuity), to extend the annuity period beyond 30 years. 40 years would likely be about the limit for jackpot games due to diminishing benefit (each year added has less cumulative effect on inflating jackpot size) and marketing reasons.