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MegaMillions is ready to be won again

Topic closed. 116 replies. Last post 2 years ago by KY Floyd.

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NY
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Member #23835
October 16, 2005
3474 Posts
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Posted: January 15, 2015, 3:29 am - IP Logged

"heres to the first instant Billionaire ... "

Don't hold your breath. To get a real billionaire the advertised jackpot would have to be close to $2.6 billion, and that's assuming no state tax. It's possible, but extremely unlikely. On top of that, it would require a single winner when sales would probably mean well over a 50% chance of multiple winners.

"With six 5+0 winners it can't be long before one of them is a 5+1 winner."

The number of 5+0 winners last time is fairly meaningless. They sold a hair over 47 million tickets, so at least 87% of combinations went unplayed. The current increase means MM officials are expecting fairly similar sales this time around. Considering all the duplicate combinations that are sold a winner doesn't become the likely result until they sell about 175 million tickets. Given the glacial pace of rollovers that may still be a few rolls away.

"each additional rollover becomes less and less cumulatively likely."

I'm pretty sure you can answer this correctly: After rolling a (fair and perfectly balanced) die 1000 times without getting a 6, what are the chances of a 6 on the next roll?

    LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
    Happyland
    United States
    Member #146344
    September 1, 2013
    1129 Posts
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    Posted: January 15, 2015, 8:08 am - IP Logged

    "heres to the first instant Billionaire ... "

    Don't hold your breath. To get a real billionaire the advertised jackpot would have to be close to $2.6 billion, and that's assuming no state tax. It's possible, but extremely unlikely. On top of that, it would require a single winner when sales would probably mean well over a 50% chance of multiple winners.

    "With six 5+0 winners it can't be long before one of them is a 5+1 winner."

    The number of 5+0 winners last time is fairly meaningless. They sold a hair over 47 million tickets, so at least 87% of combinations went unplayed. The current increase means MM officials are expecting fairly similar sales this time around. Considering all the duplicate combinations that are sold a winner doesn't become the likely result until they sell about 175 million tickets. Given the glacial pace of rollovers that may still be a few rolls away.

    "each additional rollover becomes less and less cumulatively likely."

    I'm pretty sure you can answer this correctly: After rolling a (fair and perfectly balanced) die 1000 times without getting a 6, what are the chances of a 6 on the next roll?

    "each additional rollover becomes less and less cumulatively likely."

    I'm pretty sure you can answer this correctly: After rolling a (fair and perfectly balanced) die 1000 times without getting a 6, what are the chances of a 6 on the next roll?

    Yes of course I can. Every time I mention my "cumulative probability" statement someone brings this up.

    It's pretty obvious that the probability of a winner in THIS draw is not the same as the probability of a winner in THIS draw OR any previous one (which is what I am talking about). That is why I try to be careful in my wording. The number I throw out (cumulative, 90th percentile etc) is the exact same one used by the lottery to determine how much longer the game will keep rolling. It offers a bigger picture look at the game. For instance, even though there may be a strictly 25% chance of a winner in THIS draw, if sales have been 5 billion tickets in the previous draws without any winners then either A) the game is rigged, or B) we are in an extreme percentile and a winner will be coming soon. The probability I throw out there relates not to the independence of the draw but the rate of the process. Rather than solely rely on jackpot size to make purchasing decisions, I also use this cumulative probability to determine how much farther a game could roll. Doesn't improve MY odds of course but it works for filtering. I only play maybe a few times a year and everytime I buy a ticket there is a winner within the current or next drawing.

    If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
    If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

    2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
    P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

      noise-gate's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcR91HDs4UJhjxO7cmeMQWZ5lB_FOcMLOGicau4V74R45tDgPWrr
      Bay Area - California
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      December 12, 2012
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      Posted: January 15, 2015, 9:47 am - IP Logged

      Mr. RJoh,

       

      I think it takes one heck of a lot more discipline to select a number and play it forever.
      You're never going to spend more money on lotto, than the prize, should you (or shouldn't you) hit it.

      But, the people who thrive on seeing you (and me for that matter), continue to lose, will forever be shut up, when you do hit.

      Which People?- RJOH has been losing for years, since you only joined LP a little over a week ago "We" have no knowledge of your" losing" history. Big Smile

      People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it- George Bernard Shaw.

        maringoman's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcTbRxpKQmOfcCoUqF2FyqIOAwDo7rg9G-lfJLAALPGWJWwiz19eRw
        Massachusetts
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        April 14, 2006
        2747 Posts
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        Posted: January 15, 2015, 8:37 pm - IP Logged

        My work pool won $5 on the last MM drawing. We each got 45 ¢ Big Grin

        That money's gone fo ever

          Droptop6969's avatar - DSCF1040
          209 Modesto, California
          United States
          Member #162967
          January 15, 2015
          40 Posts
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          Posted: January 15, 2015, 11:06 pm - IP Logged

          I think it will roll until 400M,  Frenzy will begin here in the next few drawings

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
            United States
            Member #9
            March 24, 2001
            19816 Posts
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            Posted: January 16, 2015, 1:34 am - IP Logged

            My work pool won $5 on the last MM drawing. We each got 45 ¢ Big Grin

            I won $1 on the last MM drawing.  I, me and myself shared it.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              butch2030's avatar - DiscoBallGlowing
              The KEY ingredient is Combos & Patterns
              Elgin, IL
              United States
              Member #68867
              January 1, 2009
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              Posted: January 16, 2015, 6:14 am - IP Logged

              Food for thought RJ.................................

              And I am also playing 15 lines & I bet you can guess which 2 Mega Balls I am playing & 14 of the 15 lines containing 7 sets of ( 3 of 5 past history hitting more than once..............).

              MEGA MILLIONS MEGA BALL
              RankingBall ## Hits% to TOTBRKT %
              Excellent71310.08% 
              Excellent151310.08%20.16%
              Good1118.53% 
              Good3118.53% 
              Good6107.75% 
              Good296.98% 
              Good996.98% 
              Good1096.98% 
              Good1296.98%52.71%
              Fair875.43% 
              Fair1175.43% 
              Fair564.65%15.50%
              Poor453.88% 
              Poor1353.88% 
              Poor1453.88%11.63%
              Total129100.00%100.00%

              Here's 14 of the 129 drawings

              Date#1#1#1#1#1MB
              2013-11-1525444954638
              2014-02-0425444960739
                           
              2013-12-037124144593
              2014-09-057122024597
                           
              2014-02-283315058596
              2014-10-2835057586011
                           
              2014-06-0612293749729
              2014-08-0113293437726
                           
              2014-06-27152931466410
              2014-08-2629315160641
                           
              2014-08-0525283645536
              2014-09-1625455153732
                           
              2014-10-2153537416611
              2014-11-0731354165665

              Good Luck & Best Wishes To ALL.....................................................

                Avatar
                NY
                United States
                Member #23835
                October 16, 2005
                3474 Posts
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                Posted: January 16, 2015, 7:29 am - IP Logged

                "each additional rollover becomes less and less cumulatively likely."

                I'm pretty sure you can answer this correctly: After rolling a (fair and perfectly balanced) die 1000 times without getting a 6, what are the chances of a 6 on the next roll?

                Yes of course I can. Every time I mention my "cumulative probability" statement someone brings this up.

                It's pretty obvious that the probability of a winner in THIS draw is not the same as the probability of a winner in THIS draw OR any previous one (which is what I am talking about). That is why I try to be careful in my wording. The number I throw out (cumulative, 90th percentile etc) is the exact same one used by the lottery to determine how much longer the game will keep rolling. It offers a bigger picture look at the game. For instance, even though there may be a strictly 25% chance of a winner in THIS draw, if sales have been 5 billion tickets in the previous draws without any winners then either A) the game is rigged, or B) we are in an extreme percentile and a winner will be coming soon. The probability I throw out there relates not to the independence of the draw but the rate of the process. Rather than solely rely on jackpot size to make purchasing decisions, I also use this cumulative probability to determine how much farther a game could roll. Doesn't improve MY odds of course but it works for filtering. I only play maybe a few times a year and everytime I buy a ticket there is a winner within the current or next drawing.

                I understand what you mean, but I think the way you said it was inaccurate. Simply saying "each additional rollover becomes less and less likely" would be accurate, assuming sales increase. I think that adding "cumulatively" implies that the number of previous drawings is (and remains) a factor, and that leading with the reference to the 90th percentile makes it more inaccurate or misleading. Previous drawings without a winner have an effect due to increasing ticket sales, but it's strictly the sales for each subsequent drawing that reduce the chances of a rollover rather than the increasing number of drawings.

                It's certainly true that the probability of a winner in drawing #21 will be greater than in drawing #10, but the probability (or cumulative probability) of reaching drawing #22  (or 23, 24, etc) without a winner is now much greater than is was before drawing #10. We may be at what used to be the 90th percentile, but based on the increase there's only about an 18% chance that we won't make it to #22. I think it's harder to predict sales than it used to be, but if it rolls I'm thinking something like 310, 360 and 425. Next one is even harder, but that's the one that would get us back to a 90% chance that it stops going.

                "I also use this cumulative probability to determine how much farther a game could roll."

                That leads me back to the inaccuracy. If your goals is to play the last 2 drawings of any given roll, you might expect that to mean #14 and #15 before the first drawing happens, based on the low chance of ever seeing #16.  Once it reaches #10 without a winner it's unlikely that it won't reach #16.

                  LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                  Happyland
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                  September 1, 2013
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                  Posted: January 16, 2015, 9:06 am - IP Logged

                  I understand what you mean, but I think the way you said it was inaccurate. Simply saying "each additional rollover becomes less and less likely" would be accurate, assuming sales increase. I think that adding "cumulatively" implies that the number of previous drawings is (and remains) a factor, and that leading with the reference to the 90th percentile makes it more inaccurate or misleading. Previous drawings without a winner have an effect due to increasing ticket sales, but it's strictly the sales for each subsequent drawing that reduce the chances of a rollover rather than the increasing number of drawings.

                  It's certainly true that the probability of a winner in drawing #21 will be greater than in drawing #10, but the probability (or cumulative probability) of reaching drawing #22  (or 23, 24, etc) without a winner is now much greater than is was before drawing #10. We may be at what used to be the 90th percentile, but based on the increase there's only about an 18% chance that we won't make it to #22. I think it's harder to predict sales than it used to be, but if it rolls I'm thinking something like 310, 360 and 425. Next one is even harder, but that's the one that would get us back to a 90% chance that it stops going.

                  "I also use this cumulative probability to determine how much farther a game could roll."

                  That leads me back to the inaccuracy. If your goals is to play the last 2 drawings of any given roll, you might expect that to mean #14 and #15 before the first drawing happens, based on the low chance of ever seeing #16.  Once it reaches #10 without a winner it's unlikely that it won't reach #16.

                  Fair enough, good points.

                  If your goals is to play the last 2 drawings of any given roll, you might expect that to mean #14 and #15 before the first drawing happens, based on the low chance of ever seeing #16.

                  Well, actually it's simpler than that. The number of draws doesn't really matter to me much, only the cumulative sales. The reason is that a variation in sales between cycles doesn't affect the cumulative probability by a significant amount. This is gratis the law of large numbers. For example, roughly 596 million total tickets sold will put the game into the 90th percentile. It doesn't matter so much how long it takes for sales to reach 596 million. It could take 2 draws or 20.

                  I can estimate how many draws I think it will roll based on past similar cycles (which is what lottery does) or linear regression on the recorded and projected sales. But my entry point is less based on the number of draws and more based on sales (which also provides a basis for jackpot filtering).

                  If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                  If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                  2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                  P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                    mid-Ohio
                    United States
                    Member #9
                    March 24, 2001
                    19816 Posts
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                    Posted: January 16, 2015, 12:53 pm - IP Logged

                    Food for thought RJ.................................

                    And I am also playing 15 lines & I bet you can guess which 2 Mega Balls I am playing & 14 of the 15 lines containing 7 sets of ( 3 of 5 past history hitting more than once..............).

                    MEGA MILLIONS MEGA BALL
                    RankingBall ## Hits% to TOTBRKT %
                    Excellent71310.08% 
                    Excellent151310.08%20.16%
                    Good1118.53% 
                    Good3118.53% 
                    Good6107.75% 
                    Good296.98% 
                    Good996.98% 
                    Good1096.98% 
                    Good1296.98%52.71%
                    Fair875.43% 
                    Fair1175.43% 
                    Fair564.65%15.50%
                    Poor453.88% 
                    Poor1353.88% 
                    Poor1453.88%11.63%
                    Total129100.00%100.00%

                    Here's 14 of the 129 drawings

                    Date#1#1#1#1#1MB
                    2013-11-1525444954638
                    2014-02-0425444960739
                                 
                    2013-12-037124144593
                    2014-09-057122024597
                                 
                    2014-02-283315058596
                    2014-10-2835057586011
                                 
                    2014-06-0612293749729
                    2014-08-0113293437726
                                 
                    2014-06-27152931466410
                    2014-08-2629315160641
                                 
                    2014-08-0525283645536
                    2014-09-1625455153732
                                 
                    2014-10-2153537416611
                    2014-11-0731354165665

                    Good Luck & Best Wishes To ALL.....................................................

                    I usually play 15 lines when I plan to play all 15 megaballs even though overtime the odds of matching the megaballs are the same. Looking at the history of the last 129 drawings since the matrix change only seven megaballs has followed #7 and #14 and #15 were the only ones to do it twice so I might guess you're playing those two.  I plan to play 10 line and those megaballs will also be among the ten I choose to play.

                    I'm looking for combinations that follow a certain pattern but have new combinations of threes.

                    Good luck on your picks for tonight.

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       

                      Drenick1's avatar - villiarna
                      USA
                      United States
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                      February 25, 2014
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                      Posted: January 16, 2015, 1:24 pm - IP Logged

                      I think it will roll until 400M,  Frenzy will begin here in the next few drawings

                      Not sure what you meant but MM rolls over after every drawing. It either rolls higher if no one wins the jackpot or resets if someone does win.

                        LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                        Happyland
                        United States
                        Member #146344
                        September 1, 2013
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                        Posted: January 16, 2015, 4:08 pm - IP Logged

                        MM jackpot will be $292 million if it rolls w/o winner tonight....looks like sales won't go into frenzy mode until $300M+

                        If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                        If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                        2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                        P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                          Droptop6969's avatar - DSCF1040
                          209 Modesto, California
                          United States
                          Member #162967
                          January 15, 2015
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                          Posted: January 16, 2015, 5:36 pm - IP Logged

                          Not sure what you meant but MM rolls over after every drawing. It either rolls higher if no one wins the jackpot or resets if someone does win.

                          Are you a special ed student?  No crap it rolls higher if the jackpot doesn't win.  Do you understand the concept of MM?

                            maringoman's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcTbRxpKQmOfcCoUqF2FyqIOAwDo7rg9G-lfJLAALPGWJWwiz19eRw
                            Massachusetts
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                            April 14, 2006
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                            Posted: January 16, 2015, 6:49 pm - IP Logged

                            15 lines in the work pool for tonight's draw. It's a drama I'm willing to be all over in case we...um...you know Wink

                            That money's gone fo ever

                              Avatar
                              California
                              United States
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                              April 7, 2013
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                              Posted: January 16, 2015, 7:03 pm - IP Logged

                              15 lines in the work pool for tonight's draw. It's a drama I'm willing to be all over in case we...um...you know Wink

                              15 lines of QPs?