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# MegaMillions is ready to be won again

Topic closed. 116 replies. Last post 2 years ago by KY Floyd.

 Page 6 of 8
NY
United States
Member #23835
October 16, 2005
3474 Posts
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 Posted: January 15, 2015, 3:29 am - IP Logged

"heres to the first instant Billionaire ... "

Don't hold your breath. To get a real billionaire the advertised jackpot would have to be close to \$2.6 billion, and that's assuming no state tax. It's possible, but extremely unlikely. On top of that, it would require a single winner when sales would probably mean well over a 50% chance of multiple winners.

"With six 5+0 winners it can't be long before one of them is a 5+1 winner."

The number of 5+0 winners last time is fairly meaningless. They sold a hair over 47 million tickets, so at least 87% of combinations went unplayed. The current increase means MM officials are expecting fairly similar sales this time around. Considering all the duplicate combinations that are sold a winner doesn't become the likely result until they sell about 175 million tickets. Given the glacial pace of rollovers that may still be a few rolls away.

"each additional rollover becomes less and less cumulatively likely."

I'm pretty sure you can answer this correctly: After rolling a (fair and perfectly balanced) die 1000 times without getting a 6, what are the chances of a 6 on the next roll?

Happyland
United States
Member #146344
September 1, 2013
1129 Posts
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 Posted: January 15, 2015, 8:08 am - IP Logged

"heres to the first instant Billionaire ... "

Don't hold your breath. To get a real billionaire the advertised jackpot would have to be close to \$2.6 billion, and that's assuming no state tax. It's possible, but extremely unlikely. On top of that, it would require a single winner when sales would probably mean well over a 50% chance of multiple winners.

"With six 5+0 winners it can't be long before one of them is a 5+1 winner."

The number of 5+0 winners last time is fairly meaningless. They sold a hair over 47 million tickets, so at least 87% of combinations went unplayed. The current increase means MM officials are expecting fairly similar sales this time around. Considering all the duplicate combinations that are sold a winner doesn't become the likely result until they sell about 175 million tickets. Given the glacial pace of rollovers that may still be a few rolls away.

"each additional rollover becomes less and less cumulatively likely."

I'm pretty sure you can answer this correctly: After rolling a (fair and perfectly balanced) die 1000 times without getting a 6, what are the chances of a 6 on the next roll?

"each additional rollover becomes less and less cumulatively likely."

I'm pretty sure you can answer this correctly: After rolling a (fair and perfectly balanced) die 1000 times without getting a 6, what are the chances of a 6 on the next roll?

Yes of course I can. Every time I mention my "cumulative probability" statement someone brings this up.

It's pretty obvious that the probability of a winner in THIS draw is not the same as the probability of a winner in THIS draw OR any previous one (which is what I am talking about). That is why I try to be careful in my wording. The number I throw out (cumulative, 90th percentile etc) is the exact same one used by the lottery to determine how much longer the game will keep rolling. It offers a bigger picture look at the game. For instance, even though there may be a strictly 25% chance of a winner in THIS draw, if sales have been 5 billion tickets in the previous draws without any winners then either A) the game is rigged, or B) we are in an extreme percentile and a winner will be coming soon. The probability I throw out there relates not to the independence of the draw but the rate of the process. Rather than solely rely on jackpot size to make purchasing decisions, I also use this cumulative probability to determine how much farther a game could roll. Doesn't improve MY odds of course but it works for filtering. I only play maybe a few times a year and everytime I buy a ticket there is a winner within the current or next drawing.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
P&L % = Total Win(\$)/Total Wager(\$) - 1

Bay Area - California
United States
Member #136477
December 12, 2012
4102 Posts
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 Posted: January 15, 2015, 9:47 am - IP Logged

Mr. RJoh,

I think it takes one heck of a lot more discipline to select a number and play it forever.
You're never going to spend more money on lotto, than the prize, should you (or shouldn't you) hit it.

But, the people who thrive on seeing you (and me for that matter), continue to lose, will forever be shut up, when you do hit.

Which People?- RJOH has been losing for years, since you only joined LP a little over a week ago "We" have no knowledge of your" losing" history.

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it- George Bernard Shaw.

Massachusetts
United States
Member #37433
April 14, 2006
2747 Posts
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 Posted: January 15, 2015, 8:37 pm - IP Logged

My work pool won \$5 on the last MM drawing. We each got 45 ¢

That money's gone fo ever

209 Modesto, California
United States
Member #162967
January 15, 2015
40 Posts
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 Posted: January 15, 2015, 11:06 pm - IP Logged

I think it will roll until 400M,  Frenzy will begin here in the next few drawings

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
19816 Posts
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 Posted: January 16, 2015, 1:34 am - IP Logged

My work pool won \$5 on the last MM drawing. We each got 45 ¢

I won \$1 on the last MM drawing.  I, me and myself shared it.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

The KEY ingredient is Combos & Patterns
Elgin, IL
United States
Member #68867
January 1, 2009
1221 Posts
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 Posted: January 16, 2015, 6:14 am - IP Logged

Food for thought RJ.................................

And I am also playing 15 lines & I bet you can guess which 2 Mega Balls I am playing & 14 of the 15 lines containing 7 sets of ( 3 of 5 past history hitting more than once..............).

 MEGA MILLIONS MEGA BALL Ranking Ball # # Hits % to TOT BRKT % Excellent 7 13 10.08% Excellent 15 13 10.08% 20.16% Good 1 11 8.53% Good 3 11 8.53% Good 6 10 7.75% Good 2 9 6.98% Good 9 9 6.98% Good 10 9 6.98% Good 12 9 6.98% 52.71% Fair 8 7 5.43% Fair 11 7 5.43% Fair 5 6 4.65% 15.50% Poor 4 5 3.88% Poor 13 5 3.88% Poor 14 5 3.88% 11.63% Total 129 100.00% 100.00%

Here's 14 of the 129 drawings

 Date #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 MB 2013-11-15 25 44 49 54 63 8 2014-02-04 25 44 49 60 73 9 2013-12-03 7 12 41 44 59 3 2014-09-05 7 12 20 24 59 7 2014-02-28 3 31 50 58 59 6 2014-10-28 3 50 57 58 60 11 2014-06-06 12 29 37 49 72 9 2014-08-01 13 29 34 37 72 6 2014-06-27 15 29 31 46 64 10 2014-08-26 29 31 51 60 64 1 2014-08-05 25 28 36 45 53 6 2014-09-16 25 45 51 53 73 2 2014-10-21 5 35 37 41 66 11 2014-11-07 31 35 41 65 66 5

Good Luck & Best Wishes To ALL.....................................................

NY
United States
Member #23835
October 16, 2005
3474 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 16, 2015, 7:29 am - IP Logged

"each additional rollover becomes less and less cumulatively likely."

I'm pretty sure you can answer this correctly: After rolling a (fair and perfectly balanced) die 1000 times without getting a 6, what are the chances of a 6 on the next roll?

Yes of course I can. Every time I mention my "cumulative probability" statement someone brings this up.

It's pretty obvious that the probability of a winner in THIS draw is not the same as the probability of a winner in THIS draw OR any previous one (which is what I am talking about). That is why I try to be careful in my wording. The number I throw out (cumulative, 90th percentile etc) is the exact same one used by the lottery to determine how much longer the game will keep rolling. It offers a bigger picture look at the game. For instance, even though there may be a strictly 25% chance of a winner in THIS draw, if sales have been 5 billion tickets in the previous draws without any winners then either A) the game is rigged, or B) we are in an extreme percentile and a winner will be coming soon. The probability I throw out there relates not to the independence of the draw but the rate of the process. Rather than solely rely on jackpot size to make purchasing decisions, I also use this cumulative probability to determine how much farther a game could roll. Doesn't improve MY odds of course but it works for filtering. I only play maybe a few times a year and everytime I buy a ticket there is a winner within the current or next drawing.

I understand what you mean, but I think the way you said it was inaccurate. Simply saying "each additional rollover becomes less and less likely" would be accurate, assuming sales increase. I think that adding "cumulatively" implies that the number of previous drawings is (and remains) a factor, and that leading with the reference to the 90th percentile makes it more inaccurate or misleading. Previous drawings without a winner have an effect due to increasing ticket sales, but it's strictly the sales for each subsequent drawing that reduce the chances of a rollover rather than the increasing number of drawings.

It's certainly true that the probability of a winner in drawing #21 will be greater than in drawing #10, but the probability (or cumulative probability) of reaching drawing #22  (or 23, 24, etc) without a winner is now much greater than is was before drawing #10. We may be at what used to be the 90th percentile, but based on the increase there's only about an 18% chance that we won't make it to #22. I think it's harder to predict sales than it used to be, but if it rolls I'm thinking something like 310, 360 and 425. Next one is even harder, but that's the one that would get us back to a 90% chance that it stops going.

"I also use this cumulative probability to determine how much farther a game could roll."

That leads me back to the inaccuracy. If your goals is to play the last 2 drawings of any given roll, you might expect that to mean #14 and #15 before the first drawing happens, based on the low chance of ever seeing #16.  Once it reaches #10 without a winner it's unlikely that it won't reach #16.

Happyland
United States
Member #146344
September 1, 2013
1129 Posts
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 Posted: January 16, 2015, 9:06 am - IP Logged

I understand what you mean, but I think the way you said it was inaccurate. Simply saying "each additional rollover becomes less and less likely" would be accurate, assuming sales increase. I think that adding "cumulatively" implies that the number of previous drawings is (and remains) a factor, and that leading with the reference to the 90th percentile makes it more inaccurate or misleading. Previous drawings without a winner have an effect due to increasing ticket sales, but it's strictly the sales for each subsequent drawing that reduce the chances of a rollover rather than the increasing number of drawings.

It's certainly true that the probability of a winner in drawing #21 will be greater than in drawing #10, but the probability (or cumulative probability) of reaching drawing #22  (or 23, 24, etc) without a winner is now much greater than is was before drawing #10. We may be at what used to be the 90th percentile, but based on the increase there's only about an 18% chance that we won't make it to #22. I think it's harder to predict sales than it used to be, but if it rolls I'm thinking something like 310, 360 and 425. Next one is even harder, but that's the one that would get us back to a 90% chance that it stops going.

"I also use this cumulative probability to determine how much farther a game could roll."

That leads me back to the inaccuracy. If your goals is to play the last 2 drawings of any given roll, you might expect that to mean #14 and #15 before the first drawing happens, based on the low chance of ever seeing #16.  Once it reaches #10 without a winner it's unlikely that it won't reach #16.

Fair enough, good points.

If your goals is to play the last 2 drawings of any given roll, you might expect that to mean #14 and #15 before the first drawing happens, based on the low chance of ever seeing #16.

Well, actually it's simpler than that. The number of draws doesn't really matter to me much, only the cumulative sales. The reason is that a variation in sales between cycles doesn't affect the cumulative probability by a significant amount. This is gratis the law of large numbers. For example, roughly 596 million total tickets sold will put the game into the 90th percentile. It doesn't matter so much how long it takes for sales to reach 596 million. It could take 2 draws or 20.

I can estimate how many draws I think it will roll based on past similar cycles (which is what lottery does) or linear regression on the recorded and projected sales. But my entry point is less based on the number of draws and more based on sales (which also provides a basis for jackpot filtering).

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
P&L % = Total Win(\$)/Total Wager(\$) - 1

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
19816 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 16, 2015, 12:53 pm - IP Logged

Food for thought RJ.................................

And I am also playing 15 lines & I bet you can guess which 2 Mega Balls I am playing & 14 of the 15 lines containing 7 sets of ( 3 of 5 past history hitting more than once..............).

 MEGA MILLIONS MEGA BALL Ranking Ball # # Hits % to TOT BRKT % Excellent 7 13 10.08% Excellent 15 13 10.08% 20.16% Good 1 11 8.53% Good 3 11 8.53% Good 6 10 7.75% Good 2 9 6.98% Good 9 9 6.98% Good 10 9 6.98% Good 12 9 6.98% 52.71% Fair 8 7 5.43% Fair 11 7 5.43% Fair 5 6 4.65% 15.50% Poor 4 5 3.88% Poor 13 5 3.88% Poor 14 5 3.88% 11.63% Total 129 100.00% 100.00%

Here's 14 of the 129 drawings

 Date #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 MB 2013-11-15 25 44 49 54 63 8 2014-02-04 25 44 49 60 73 9 2013-12-03 7 12 41 44 59 3 2014-09-05 7 12 20 24 59 7 2014-02-28 3 31 50 58 59 6 2014-10-28 3 50 57 58 60 11 2014-06-06 12 29 37 49 72 9 2014-08-01 13 29 34 37 72 6 2014-06-27 15 29 31 46 64 10 2014-08-26 29 31 51 60 64 1 2014-08-05 25 28 36 45 53 6 2014-09-16 25 45 51 53 73 2 2014-10-21 5 35 37 41 66 11 2014-11-07 31 35 41 65 66 5

Good Luck & Best Wishes To ALL.....................................................

I usually play 15 lines when I plan to play all 15 megaballs even though overtime the odds of matching the megaballs are the same. Looking at the history of the last 129 drawings since the matrix change only seven megaballs has followed #7 and #14 and #15 were the only ones to do it twice so I might guess you're playing those two.  I plan to play 10 line and those megaballs will also be among the ten I choose to play.

I'm looking for combinations that follow a certain pattern but have new combinations of threes.

Good luck on your picks for tonight.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

USA
United States
Member #152799
February 25, 2014
1090 Posts
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 Posted: January 16, 2015, 1:24 pm - IP Logged

I think it will roll until 400M,  Frenzy will begin here in the next few drawings

Not sure what you meant but MM rolls over after every drawing. It either rolls higher if no one wins the jackpot or resets if someone does win.

Happyland
United States
Member #146344
September 1, 2013
1129 Posts
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 Posted: January 16, 2015, 4:08 pm - IP Logged

MM jackpot will be \$292 million if it rolls w/o winner tonight....looks like sales won't go into frenzy mode until \$300M+

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
P&L % = Total Win(\$)/Total Wager(\$) - 1

209 Modesto, California
United States
Member #162967
January 15, 2015
40 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 16, 2015, 5:36 pm - IP Logged

Not sure what you meant but MM rolls over after every drawing. It either rolls higher if no one wins the jackpot or resets if someone does win.

Are you a special ed student?  No crap it rolls higher if the jackpot doesn't win.  Do you understand the concept of MM?

Massachusetts
United States
Member #37433
April 14, 2006
2747 Posts
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 Posted: January 16, 2015, 6:49 pm - IP Logged

15 lines in the work pool for tonight's draw. It's a drama I'm willing to be all over in case we...um...you know

That money's gone fo ever

California
United States
Member #141204
April 7, 2013
280 Posts
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 Posted: January 16, 2015, 7:03 pm - IP Logged

15 lines in the work pool for tonight's draw. It's a drama I'm willing to be all over in case we...um...you know

15 lines of QPs?

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