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KY Floyd

NY
United States
Member #23,834
October 16, 2005
4,771 Posts
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Jan 15, 2015, 3:29 am

"heres to the first instant Billionaire ... "

Don't hold your breath. To get a real billionaire the advertised jackpot would have to be close to $2.6 billion, and that's assuming no state tax. It's possible, but extremely unlikely. On top of that, it would require a single winner when sales would probably mean well over a 50% chance of multiple winners.

"With six 5+0 winners it can't be long before one of them is a 5+1 winner."

The number of 5+0 winners last time is fairly meaningless. They sold a hair over 47 million tickets, so at least 87% of combinations went unplayed. The current increase means MM officials are expecting fairly similar sales this time around. Considering all the duplicate combinations that are sold a winner doesn't become the likely result until they sell about 175 million tickets. Given the glacial pace of rollovers that may still be a few rolls away.

"each additional rollover becomes less and less cumulatively likely."

I'm pretty sure you can answer this correctly: After rolling a (fair and perfectly balanced) die 1000 times without getting a 6, what are the chances of a 6 on the next roll?
LottoMetro

Happyland
United States
Member #146,338
September 1, 2013
1,176 Posts
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Jan 15, 2015, 8:08 am

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Jan 15, 2015
"heres to the first instant Billionaire ... "

Don't hold your breath. To get a real billionaire the advertised jackpot would have to be close to $2.6 billion, and that's assuming no state tax. It's possible, but extremely unlikely. On top of that, it would require a single winner when sales would probably mean well over a 50% chance of multiple winners.

"With six 5+0 winners it can't be long before one of them is a 5+1 winner."

The number of 5+0 winners last time is fairly meaningless. They sold a hair over 47 million tickets, so at least 87% of combinations went unplayed. The current increase means MM officials are expecting fairly similar sales this time around. Considering all the duplicate combinations that are sold a winner doesn't become the likely result until they sell about 175 million tickets. Given the glacial pace of rollovers that may still be a few rolls away.

"each additional rollover becomes less and less cumulatively likely."

I'm pretty sure you can answer this correctly: After rolling a (fair and perfectly balanced) die 1000 times without getting a 6, what are the chances of a 6 on the next roll?

"each additional rollover becomes less and less cumulatively likely."

I'm pretty sure you can answer this correctly: After rolling a (fair and perfectly balanced) die 1000 times without getting a 6, what are the chances of a 6 on the next roll?

Yes of course I can. Every time I mention my "cumulative probability" statement someone brings this up.

It's pretty obvious that the probability of a winner in THIS draw is not the same as the probability of a winner in THIS draw OR any previous one (which is what I am talking about). That is why I try to be careful in my wording. The number I throw out (cumulative, 90th percentile etc) is the exact same one used by the lottery to determine how much longer the game will keep rolling. It offers a bigger picture look at the game. For instance, even though there may be a strictly 25% chance of a winner in THIS draw, if sales have been 5 billion tickets in the previous draws without any winners then either A) the game is rigged, or B) we are in an extreme percentile and a winner will be coming soon. The probability I throw out there relates not to the independence of the draw but the rate of the process. Rather than solely rely on jackpot size to make purchasing decisions, I also use this cumulative probability to determine how much farther a game could roll. Doesn't improve MY odds of course but it works for filtering. I only play maybe a few times a year and everytime I buy a ticket there is a winner within the current or next drawing.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
noise-gate

* In hot pursuit of $ *

White Shores- California
United States
Member #136,471
December 12, 2012
7,039 Posts
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Jan 15, 2015, 9:47 am

Quote: Originally posted by Groppo on Jan 14, 2015
Mr. RJoh,

I think it takes one heck of a lot more discipline to select a number and play it forever.
You're never going to spend more money on lotto, than the prize, should you (or shouldn't you) hit it.

But, the people who thrive on seeing you (and me for that matter), continue to lose, will forever be shut up, when you do hit.

Which People?- RJOH has been losing for years, since you only joined LP a little over a week ago "We" have no knowledge of your" losing" history.

* Voice of Reason *

* People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it- George Bernard Shaw.
maringoman

Massachusetts
United States
Member #37,432
April 14, 2006
2,747 Posts
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Jan 15, 2015, 8:37 pm

My work pool won $5 on the last MM drawing. We each got 45 ¢

That money's gone fo ever
Droptop6969

209 Modesto, California
United States
Member #162,960
January 15, 2015
40 Posts
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Jan 15, 2015, 11:06 pm

I think it will roll until 400M, Frenzy will begin here in the next few drawings
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
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Jan 16, 2015, 1:34 am

Quote: Originally posted by maringoman on Jan 15, 2015
My work pool won $5 on the last MM drawing. We each got 45 ¢

I won $1 on the last MM drawing. I, me and myself shared it.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *

butch2030

The KEY ingredient is Combos & Patterns

Elgin, IL
United States
Member #68,865
January 1, 2009
1,291 Posts
Offline

Jan 16, 2015, 6:14 am

Food for thought RJ.................................

And I am also playing 15 lines & I bet you can guess which 2 Mega Balls I am playing & 14 of the 15 lines containing 7 sets of ( 3 of 5 past history hitting more than once..............).

*MEGA MILLIONS MEGA BALL*
Ranking	Ball #	# Hits	% to TOT	BRKT %
Excellent	7	13	10.08%
Excellent	15	13	10.08%	20.16%
Good	1	11	8.53%
Good	3	11	8.53%
Good	6	10	7.75%
Good	2	9	6.98%
Good	9	9	6.98%
Good	10	9	6.98%
Good	12	9	6.98%	52.71%
Fair	8	7	5.43%
Fair	11	7	5.43%
Fair	5	6	4.65%	15.50%
Poor	4	5	3.88%
Poor	13	5	3.88%
Poor	14	5	3.88%	11.63%
Total		129	100.00%	100.00%

Here's 14 of the 129 drawings

Date	#1	#1	#1	#1	#1	MB
2013-11-15	25	44	49	54	63	8
2014-02-04	25	44	49	60	73	9

2013-12-03	7	12	41	44	59	3
2014-09-05	7	12	20	24	59	7

2014-02-28	3	31	50	58	59	6
2014-10-28	3	50	57	58	60	11

2014-06-06	12	29	37	49	72	9
2014-08-01	13	29	34	37	72	6

2014-06-27	15	29	31	46	64	10
2014-08-26	29	31	51	60	64	1

2014-08-05	25	28	36	45	53	6
2014-09-16	25	45	51	53	73	2

2014-10-21	5	35	37	41	66	11
2014-11-07	31	35	41	65	66	5

Good Luck & Best Wishes To ALL.....................................................

KY Floyd

NY
United States
Member #23,834
October 16, 2005
4,771 Posts
Offline

Jan 16, 2015, 7:29 am

Quote: Originally posted by LottoMetro on Jan 15, 2015
"each additional rollover becomes less and less cumulatively likely."

I'm pretty sure you can answer this correctly: After rolling a (fair and perfectly balanced) die 1000 times without getting a 6, what are the chances of a 6 on the next roll?

Yes of course I can. Every time I mention my "cumulative probability" statement someone brings this up.

It's pretty obvious that the probability of a winner in THIS draw is not the same as the probability of a winner in THIS draw OR any previous one (which is what I am talking about). That is why I try to be careful in my wording. The number I throw out (cumulative, 90th percentile etc) is the exact same one used by the lottery to determine how much longer the game will keep rolling. It offers a bigger picture look at the game. For instance, even though there may be a strictly 25% chance of a winner in THIS draw, if sales have been 5 billion tickets in the previous draws without any winners then either A) the game is rigged, or B) we are in an extreme percentile and a winner will be coming soon. The probability I throw out there relates not to the independence of the draw but the rate of the process. Rather than solely rely on jackpot size to make purchasing decisions, I also use this cumulative probability to determine how much farther a game could roll. Doesn't improve MY odds of course but it works for filtering. I only play maybe a few times a year and everytime I buy a ticket there is a winner within the current or next drawing.

I understand what you mean, but I think the way you said it was inaccurate. Simply saying "each additional rollover becomes less and less likely" would be accurate, assuming sales increase. I think that adding "cumulatively" implies that the number of previous drawings is (and remains) a factor, and that leading with the reference to the 90th percentile makes it more inaccurate or misleading. Previous drawings without a winner have an effect due to increasing ticket sales, but it's strictly the sales for each subsequent drawing that reduce the chances of a rollover rather than the increasing number of drawings.

It's certainly true that the probability of a winner in drawing #21 will be greater than in drawing #10, but the probability (or cumulative probability) of reaching drawing #22 (or 23, 24, etc) without a winner is now much greater than is was before drawing #10. We may be at what used to be the 90th percentile, but based on the increase there's only about an 18% chance that we won't make it to #22. I think it's harder to predict sales than it used to be, but if it rolls I'm thinking something like 310, 360 and 425. Next one is even harder, but that's the one that would get us back to a 90% chance that it stops going.

"I also use this cumulative probability to determine how much farther a game could roll."

That leads me back to the inaccuracy. If your goals is to play the last 2 drawings of any given roll, you might expect that to mean #14 and #15 before the first drawing happens, based on the low chance of ever seeing #16. Once it reaches #10 without a winner it's unlikely that it won't reach #16.
LottoMetro

Happyland
United States
Member #146,338
September 1, 2013
1,176 Posts
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Jan 16, 2015, 9:06 am

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Jan 16, 2015
I understand what you mean, but I think the way you said it was inaccurate. Simply saying "each additional rollover becomes less and less likely" would be accurate, assuming sales increase. I think that adding "cumulatively" implies that the number of previous drawings is (and remains) a factor, and that leading with the reference to the 90th percentile makes it more inaccurate or misleading. Previous drawings without a winner have an effect due to increasing ticket sales, but it's strictly the sales for each subsequent drawing that reduce the chances of a rollover rather than the increasing number of drawings.

It's certainly true that the probability of a winner in drawing #21 will be greater than in drawing #10, but the probability (or cumulative probability) of reaching drawing #22 (or 23, 24, etc) without a winner is now much greater than is was before drawing #10. We may be at what used to be the 90th percentile, but based on the increase there's only about an 18% chance that we won't make it to #22. I think it's harder to predict sales than it used to be, but if it rolls I'm thinking something like 310, 360 and 425. Next one is even harder, but that's the one that would get us back to a 90% chance that it stops going.

"I also use this cumulative probability to determine how much farther a game could roll."

That leads me back to the inaccuracy. If your goals is to play the last 2 drawings of any given roll, you might expect that to mean #14 and #15 before the first drawing happens, based on the low chance of ever seeing #16. Once it reaches #10 without a winner it's unlikely that it won't reach #16.

Fair enough, good points.

If your goals is to play the last 2 drawings of any given roll, you might expect that to mean #14 and #15 before the first drawing happens, based on the low chance of ever seeing #16.

Well, actually it's simpler than that. The number of draws doesn't really matter to me much, only the cumulative sales. The reason is that a variation in sales between cycles doesn't affect the cumulative probability by a significant amount. This is gratis the law of large numbers. For example, roughly 596 million total tickets sold will put the game into the 90th percentile. It doesn't matter so much how long it takes for sales to reach 596 million. It could take 2 draws or 20.

I can estimate how many draws I think it will roll based on past similar cycles (which is what lottery does) or linear regression on the recorded and projected sales. But my entry point is less based on the number of draws and more based on sales (which also provides a basis for jackpot filtering).

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
Offline

Jan 16, 2015, 12:53 pm

Quote: Originally posted by butch2030 on Jan 16, 2015

Food for thought RJ.................................

And I am also playing 15 lines & I bet you can guess which 2 Mega Balls I am playing & 14 of the 15 lines containing 7 sets of ( 3 of 5 past history hitting more than once..............).

*MEGA MILLIONS MEGA BALL*
Ranking	Ball #	# Hits	% to TOT	BRKT %
Excellent	7	13	10.08%
Excellent	15	13	10.08%	20.16%
Good	1	11	8.53%
Good	3	11	8.53%
Good	6	10	7.75%
Good	2	9	6.98%
Good	9	9	6.98%
Good	10	9	6.98%
Good	12	9	6.98%	52.71%
Fair	8	7	5.43%
Fair	11	7	5.43%
Fair	5	6	4.65%	15.50%
Poor	4	5	3.88%
Poor	13	5	3.88%
Poor	14	5	3.88%	11.63%
Total		129	100.00%	100.00%

Here's 14 of the 129 drawings

Date	#1	#1	#1	#1	#1	MB
2013-11-15	25	44	49	54	63	8
2014-02-04	25	44	49	60	73	9

2013-12-03	7	12	41	44	59	3
2014-09-05	7	12	20	24	59	7

2014-02-28	3	31	50	58	59	6
2014-10-28	3	50	57	58	60	11

2014-06-06	12	29	37	49	72	9
2014-08-01	13	29	34	37	72	6

2014-06-27	15	29	31	46	64	10
2014-08-26	29	31	51	60	64	1

2014-08-05	25	28	36	45	53	6
2014-09-16	25	45	51	53	73	2

2014-10-21	5	35	37	41	66	11
2014-11-07	31	35	41	65	66	5

Good Luck & Best Wishes To ALL.....................................................

I usually play 15 lines when I plan to play all 15 megaballs even though overtime the odds of matching the megaballs are the same. Looking at the history of the last 129 drawings since the matrix change only seven megaballs has followed #7 and #14 and #15 were the only ones to do it twice so I might guess you're playing those two. I plan to play 10 line and those megaballs will also be among the ten I choose to play.

I'm looking for combinations that follow a certain pattern but have new combinations of threes.

Good luck on your picks for tonight.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *

Drenick1

USA
United States
Member #152,792
February 25, 2014
1,111 Posts
Offline

Jan 16, 2015, 1:24 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Droptop6969 on Jan 15, 2015
I think it will roll until 400M, Frenzy will begin here in the next few drawings

Not sure what you meant but MM rolls over after every drawing. It either rolls higher if no one wins the jackpot or resets if someone does win.
LottoMetro

Happyland
United States
Member #146,338
September 1, 2013
1,176 Posts
Offline

Jan 16, 2015, 4:08 pm

MM jackpot will be $292 million if it rolls w/o winner tonight....looks like sales won't go into frenzy mode until $300M+

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
Droptop6969

209 Modesto, California
United States
Member #162,960
January 15, 2015
40 Posts
Offline

Jan 16, 2015, 5:36 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Drenick1 on Jan 16, 2015
Not sure what you meant but MM rolls over after every drawing. It either rolls higher if no one wins the jackpot or resets if someone does win.

Are you a special ed student? No crap it rolls higher if the jackpot doesn't win. Do you understand the concept of MM?
maringoman

Massachusetts
United States
Member #37,432
April 14, 2006
2,747 Posts
Offline

Jan 16, 2015, 6:49 pm

15 lines in the work pool for tonight's draw. It's a drama I'm willing to be all over in case we...um...you know

That money's gone fo ever
PrinceRene

California
United States
Member #141,198
April 7, 2013
280 Posts
Offline

Jan 16, 2015, 7:03 pm

Quote: Originally posted by maringoman on Jan 16, 2015
15 lines in the work pool for tonight's draw. It's a drama I'm willing to be all over in case we...um...you know

15 lines of QPs?

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