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Mega Millions sets world record with $1.6 billion lottery jackpot for Tuesday drawing

Topic closed. 503 replies. Last post 4 years ago by Coin Toss.

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San Diego, CA
United States
Member #58384
February 12, 2008
320 Posts
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I was going to say it might roll.  There was not a winner in California.

    Kyle7824's avatar - Lottery-042.jpg
    Greenville, NC
    United States
    Member #157294
    July 14, 2014
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    Well, we still have powerball :-)

      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
      100
      Zeta Reticuli Star System
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      January 17, 2006
      11659 Posts
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      Interesting read; Can Money Buy Happiness for Lottery Winners?

      https://www.thedailybeast.com/mega-millions-jackpot-begs-question-can-money-buy-happiness-for-lottery-winners?ref=scroll

      Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners. 

      Lep

      There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

        TheMeatman2005's avatar - lightening
        Brooklyn, NY
        United States
        Member #169716
        October 29, 2015
        1559 Posts
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        Dee Mullins - Love Makes The World Go Round, But Money Greases The Wheels

         

        The Meatman 🥩🍗🍔🍖🍤🌭

        “The quickest way to double your money is to fold it in half and put it in your back pocket.” Will Rogers

        Winning happens in a flash, Like A Bolt Of Lightning!  Patriot

          BuyLow's avatar - fd725949c52faf3bef0a9e377747408d -iphone-wallpaper-palm-trees.jpg
          Florida
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          May 22, 2008
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            Australia
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            March 2, 2015
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            Going by this "unofficial" link from The Lotter, there is the only winner from South Carolina.

              KY Floyd's avatar - sunflowers avatar.jpg
              NY
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              Member #23834
              October 16, 2005
              4560 Posts
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              "It's a wonder that every jackpot doesn't roll up to a billion plus"

              Probability is different than the arithmetic we normally use for a lot of other things, and not very intuitive. The number of combinations sold isn't linear, so selling twice as many tickets doesn't use twice as many combinations. With small sales there aren't a lot of repeats, so selling 30.26 million tickets (about 1/10th as many tickets as possible combinations) would use 9.82% of combinations.  Doubling sales to 60.52 million would use 18.13%, so fairly close to twice as many combinations.

              As you sell more and more tickets the number of repeats starts to increase dramatically. It takes about 210 million tickets to use 50% of the combinations, but doubling that to 420 million tickets would only increase the number of combinations used to about 75%. To use 99.999% of combinations (theoretically leaving 3026 unsold combinations) would take 3.5 billion tickets.

              It takes a lot of tickets to have a very high chance of a winner, but only a modest amount of tickets for a decent chance of a winner. Sometimes it takes a billion tickets to produce a winner, but  other times there's a winner when that was only a 10 or 20% chance. In the long run we can expect about one winner for every 302.6 million tickets sold.  At current interest rates it takes about 830 million tickets to produce an advertised jackpot of $1 billion. The chances of selling 830 million tickets without a winner is 6.44%, so we can expect it to happen about once every 15 times.

               

              "I used the 4 qtrs of equal payments."

              That's what works almost all the time for almost all of us, and there's usually no need to worry about the unusual scenarios we don't deal with. If I actually win a jackpot or come into some other taxable windfall I can find out if there's anything new I need to know.

               

              "It has both a 5 White and 5 Megaball, 3 numbers over 60 and the 70 which is rarely picked"

              I really wish there was no such thing as a QP. Because most people either choose "special" numbers or think the way you do the average jackpot would be bigger and those of us who understand that every combination has the same chance would  almost never have to share a jackpot. There's a very good chance that if QP's didn't exist I'd be playing for $2 billion now.

                Tucker Black's avatar - Kleber Vieira.jpg
                Reno, NV
                United States
                Member #173296
                February 25, 2016
                337 Posts
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                "Probability is different than the arithmetic we normally use for a lot of other things, and not very intuitive. The number of combinations sold isn't linear, so selling twice as many tickets doesn't use twice as many combinations. With small sales there aren't a lot of repeats, so selling 30.26 million tickets (about 1/10th as many tickets as possible combinations) would use 9.82% of combinations.  Doubling sales to 60.52 million would use 18.13%, so fairly close to twice as many combinations.

                As you sell more and more tickets the number of repeats starts to increase dramatically. It takes about 210 million tickets to use 50% of the combinations, but doubling that to 420 million tickets would only increase the number of combinations used to about 75%. To use 99.999% of combinations (theoretically leaving 3026 unsold combinations) would take 3.5 billion tickets.

                It takes a lot of tickets to have a very high chance of a winner, but only a modest amount of tickets for a decent chance of a winner. Sometimes it takes a billion tickets to produce a winner, but  other times there's a winner when that was only a 10 or 20% chance. In the long run we can expect about one winner for every 302.6 million tickets sold.  At current interest rates it takes about 830 million tickets to produce an advertised jackpot of $1 billion. The chances of selling 830 million tickets without a winner is 6.44%, so we can expect it to happen about once every 15 times."

                Good work!

                 

                ""It has both a 5 White and 5 Megaball, 3 numbers over 60 and the 70 which is rarely picked"

                I really wish there was no such thing as a QP. Because most people either choose "special" numbers or think the way you do the average jackpot would be bigger and those of us who understand that every combination has the same chance would  almost never have to share a jackpot. There's a very good chance that if QP's didn't exist I'd be playing for $2 billion now."

                Without QP's, the lottery would be unable to sell a ridiculous number of tickets when the jackpot gets very high like this. Most people don't want to spend time filling out all those playslips. This is MM/PB's business plan, to sell hundreds of millions of lottery tickets every once in a while, and just 10 million or so the rest of the time.

                  Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                  100
                  Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                  January 17, 2006
                  11659 Posts
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                  @KY Floyd

                  \Without QPs the lotteries would lose 70% of their sales.....

                  don't ever apply for a lottery director job

                  Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners. 

                  Lep

                  There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                     
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