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What is a lottery system? What distinguishes a lottery system from guesses, dreams and quick picks?

Topic closed. 918 replies. Last post 6 years ago by mayhem.

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visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
light on my feet
United States
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May 20, 2002
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Posted: April 8, 2011, 2:26 am - IP Logged

visiondude,

Here's a guy offering $30,000 to anyone willing to put up $3000 and beat the house at roulette, and he's getting no takers!  Now, given that the house edge is only around 5%, depending on casino rules, don't you think maybe we're being a little too tough on these guys here?  They have to overcome a 50% house edge!

http://vegasclick.com/gambling/betting-system-challenge.html

Smile

--Jimmy4164

truthfully,  it's an embarrassing show of positional weakness,  rather than positional strength.

i don't make it a point every time i post that today i am going to do whatever it takes to make the LP most hated poster title.

transparently speaking,  even I find it annoying when i HAVE to expose the likes of a "stack" (only when they push their chest out),  .......when their arrogance finally can't play catch up to the amount of the spout.    then i have to.

even i can see why some would view me as an annoying gnat. 

that being said,  if I was playing on the other side of the fence,  I would have played ball, and proven my side of it a long time ago,  to silence the opposition / irritation that a gnat like me throws out there.

no takers

consider a person on the fence,  that is truly ambivalent,  and is looking to see if they are wasting their time pursuing what seems to be nothing but random,  to see if you really can create an edge, .....you have to know they are WAITING for someone to show some positional moxie.

still nothing

if there ever was a red flag the "stacks" of the world can't do what they say they can,  that's a billboard.

what's pathetically worse,  is watching the parade of on the fly excuses.

gifted / intelligent people reducing themselves to mush over wishful thinking

 i don't paint my address number on the curb at LP with the intent to change the hopelessly lost wishful thinkers.

i have just enough in the tank to recognize when there will never be enough evidence when i am interacting with a person,  and any effort past that is a waste.

me  ----->   i "work" for the fence sitters...

            "i am .........."meant to"       

P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

         until further notice,  it's  france everyday

    ameriken's avatar - 33ojew2
    Denver, Co
    United States
    Member #103046
    December 29, 2010
    546 Posts
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    Posted: April 8, 2011, 1:03 pm - IP Logged

    visiondude,

    Here's a guy offering $30,000 to anyone willing to put up $3000 and beat the house at roulette, and he's getting no takers!  Now, given that the house edge is only around 5%, depending on casino rules, don't you think maybe we're being a little too tough on these guys here?  They have to overcome a 50% house edge!

    http://vegasclick.com/gambling/betting-system-challenge.html

    Smile

    --Jimmy4164

    Interesting. However, there must be a reason he hasn't challenged lottery players with a similar offer?

      Avatar
      Kentucky
      United States
      Member #32652
      February 14, 2006
      7302 Posts
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      Posted: April 8, 2011, 1:42 pm - IP Logged

      "it would look like your saying the owner of this site published a wheel that doesn't guarantee what they say it does. And because I know for a fact, it does, it somehow becomes my responsibility".

       when you state "i know for a fact it does", it became your responsibility once you claimed it did.

      what solidified your responsibility to back up your claim,  was when you went the arrogance trash talking route.

      as you can tell,  i don't "challenge" everyone that throws out insinuations such as you did,   just the ones that think they can talk trash without the ability to back it up. 

      you made the arrogant based claim,  so back it up.

      your current excuse for avoiding a head to head ------->  is having me click somewhere to investigate it.

      go click on it,  do whatever you need to do because it's not my concern "how" it works,  only that it does,  and that's your responsibility to demonstrate it does.

      "Don't you find it odd with over 100,000 LP members and 13,856 views of this thread, you're the only one questioning how it's possible to use 46 bonus numbers on 46 lines or how it's possible to get a 2 if 5 guarantee using all 56 numbers on 46 lines?"

      not at all.  i am used to playing the lone ranger in here.    doesn't sway me a stitch

      btw,  i might be the only one willing to demonstrate it (or any other methodology) cannot create an edge over randomness,  because remember.....i narrowed my "concern" about the "2 if 5 guarantee" that it sells the notion you will "lose less" in the lottery. 

      don't you find it odd that with over 100,000 members and 13,856 views and 9 years that i can never find one person that will go head to head with me,   whenever i challenge their "arrogant claim"?

      you see stack,  if someone really had something.....they would have shut me up a LOOOOOOOOOONG time ago.

      shouldn't be hard to do,  with the probable thousands of "successful systems" talk about in here.

      everytime i do this with people like you,  they stay only as long as their imaginations allow them the ability to manufacture excuses.

      given the 100,000/13,856 rule,  i would think you would be licking your chops staring at LP infamy.

      you never will,  because you are incapable of backing up something you state as being "true",  and try as you like,  you can never blame others when you don't.........but you will continue to try and do so.

      do your own personal footwork.

      i am not lifting a finger with any more effort than a "click" on the LP RNG.

      that bare minimum effort is enough to bring any "system" in here to it's randomness knee's,  in the real world of reality.

      against you.....my english and math is more than sufficient

      "when you state "i know for a fact it does", it became your responsibility once you claimed it did."

      I claimed it will always match 2 numbers on one of the 46 lines in every MM drawing and gave you easy to follow directions so you could test it yourself. Jimmy and I seldom agree and if he thought the wheel didn't preform as I claimed, with his mathematical background, he would have jumped on me with both feet by now, but he hasn't.

      Nobody but you to my knowledge has ever disputed the guarantees of this wheel or of any of abbreviated wheels found on this site.

      "btw,  i might be the only one willing to demonstrate it (or any other methodology) cannot create an edge over randomness,"

      This statement alone shows your mathematical ignorance. There is nothing random about using all 56 numbers and arranging them so at least one 2 number match will appear on one of the 46 lines. And simple common sense should tell you it's possible to use all 46 bonus numbers on a 46 line wheel.

      There is no payoff for matching 2 numbers playing MM, but since the 2 number match is guaranteed the chances of matching 3, 4, or 5 is slightly better than a random 46 lines with no guarantee of matching 2 numbers. Anyone who purchases $5 or $10 QPs occasionally over a year will tell you that one bonus appeared twice on their 5 or 10 tickets. Though not impossible, it's highly unlikely all 46 bonus number would appear on 46 purchased QPs. According to odds charts found on most state MM sites, players need to purchase 75 QPs before they can expect to match all 46 bonus numbers so again it's obvious why using all 46 bonus numbers on 46 lines has a slight edge over purchasing 46 QPs.

      You either don't understand the difference between "slight edge" and "outperform" or you have way too much time on you hands and want me to waste my time on a contest that I already know the probably outcome. The wheel will match the bonus and QPs probably will too based on the high percentages of bonus numbers it will likely produce. While the wheel has a slightly better chance of matching 3 numbers because of the 2 number match guarantee, it still has to beat the odds. Either method will have to beat the odds to outperform the other.

      Since probability says we can expect a loss playing either method, there is nothing to prove by having a contest. Now if you're your saying it's impossible for the wheel to match the bonus number and get 2 number WBS match, I'll take that bet with the stipulations you'll never again post on LP if one of my lines matches 2 numbers and one of my lines match the bonus number.

      "you see stack,  if someone really had something.....they would have shut me up a LOOOOOOOOOONG time ago."

      I'm assuming most people just ignore you, but if you're that confident in your ignorance, make the bet I just purposed.

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        Kentucky
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        Posted: April 8, 2011, 2:11 pm - IP Logged

        Interesting. However, there must be a reason he hasn't challenged lottery players with a similar offer?

        Did you see the stipulations?

        "starting with a generous $5000 bankroll, in a computer simulation," and "Each simulation will run for 200,000 rounds."

        We can rule out any system based on past performance from taking that challenge or making that challenge on a lottery game where one win could produce over a $1 million in winnings.

        "any system that cannot be actually be employed by an average person with nothing more than a pen and paper is disallowed,"

        Another reason why a lottery systems player would not take the challenge.

          mayhem's avatar - 142g5yd
          Fort Worth, TX
          United States
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          February 11, 2011
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          Posted: April 8, 2011, 2:14 pm - IP Logged

          Did you see the stipulations?

          "starting with a generous $5000 bankroll, in a computer simulation," and "Each simulation will run for 200,000 rounds."

          We can rule out any system based on past performance from taking that challenge or making that challenge on a lottery game where one win could produce over a $1 million in winnings.

          "any system that cannot be actually be employed by an average person with nothing more than a pen and paper is disallowed,"

          Another reason why a lottery systems player would not take the challenge.

          lol.

           

          Just pen and paper? What is he afraid of?

          How you do anything is how you do everything.

            ameriken's avatar - 33ojew2
            Denver, Co
            United States
            Member #103046
            December 29, 2010
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            Posted: April 8, 2011, 2:27 pm - IP Logged

            Did you see the stipulations?

            "starting with a generous $5000 bankroll, in a computer simulation," and "Each simulation will run for 200,000 rounds."

            We can rule out any system based on past performance from taking that challenge or making that challenge on a lottery game where one win could produce over a $1 million in winnings.

            "any system that cannot be actually be employed by an average person with nothing more than a pen and paper is disallowed,"

            Another reason why a lottery systems player would not take the challenge.

            "Another reason why a lottery systems player would not take the challenge."

            True, lottery players would probably not take him up on the challenge, however I'm curious as to why he hasn't even made the challenge to lottery players. I'd love to see him (or someone) someone make that kind of challenge. Perhaps Jimmy4164 would be willing to do so? Big Smile


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              Posted: April 8, 2011, 9:53 pm - IP Logged

              Interesting. However, there must be a reason he hasn't challenged lottery players with a similar offer?

              Has it occured to either of you that when he gets no takers for games where the house edge is only 5%, that lottery players, with a 50% house edge to contend with, would never enter his mind?

              As for the jackpot possibilities in the lottery, take note of rule #2.  I don't think he would worry that someone would hit the jackpot more than 10 times out of twenty with each simulation being only 200,000 draws.  Besides, if he's smart, he'd monopolize on the myth that Pick-3's are "easier" to beat than jackpot games, and restrict his challenge to them.  Do you think you would collect the $30K by beating the house 11 or more times out of 20 betting on 200,000 Pick-3 draws during each simulation?  If you think you can do it, send him an email and suggest it.  And while you're at it, let him know there is a system over here that can beat him in a (5,39) lotto, provided he can program it!  Big Smile

                ameriken's avatar - 33ojew2
                Denver, Co
                United States
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                December 29, 2010
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                Posted: April 8, 2011, 10:47 pm - IP Logged

                Has it occured to either of you that when he gets no takers for games where the house edge is only 5%, that lottery players, with a 50% house edge to contend with, would never enter his mind?

                As for the jackpot possibilities in the lottery, take note of rule #2.  I don't think he would worry that someone would hit the jackpot more than 10 times out of twenty with each simulation being only 200,000 draws.  Besides, if he's smart, he'd monopolize on the myth that Pick-3's are "easier" to beat than jackpot games, and restrict his challenge to them.  Do you think you would collect the $30K by beating the house 11 or more times out of 20 betting on 200,000 Pick-3 draws during each simulation?  If you think you can do it, send him an email and suggest it.  And while you're at it, let him know there is a system over here that can beat him in a (5,39) lotto, provided he can program it!  Big Smile

                I think it would be far more fun if you put up the offer Jimmy, I'm sure someone would take you up on it, even if it wasn't $30,000. Banana

                As for myself, I'm still too inexperienced at system playing to make an offer like that, however, if I keep having the kind of success I've been having with cash 5 using a particular system in the past couple of weeks, I may actually be willing to do so.

                  jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                  Park City, UT
                  United States
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                  January 18, 2009
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                  Posted: April 9, 2011, 5:26 am - IP Logged

                  This following 15 number set has hit 8 5+0 times since 02/06/2010 in Powerball

                  10-14-16-18-22-30-37-40-47-51-52-53-54-58-59

                  02/06/2010   22 54 52 14 59 04
                  02/13/2010   14 10 40 51 30 01
                  02/27/2010   47 18 58 53 51 30
                  05/12/2010   52 58 53 37 51 38
                  07/21/2010   16 58 22 30 51 25
                  11/17/2010   14 59 54 53 16 05
                  11/27/2010   47 37 30 54 10 39
                  01/01/2011   37 47 18 22 54 36


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                    Posted: April 9, 2011, 11:05 am - IP Logged

                    I think it would be far more fun if you put up the offer Jimmy, I'm sure someone would take you up on it, even if it wasn't $30,000. Banana

                    As for myself, I'm still too inexperienced at system playing to make an offer like that, however, if I keep having the kind of success I've been having with cash 5 using a particular system in the past couple of weeks, I may actually be willing to do so.

                    "I think it would be far more fun if you put up the offer Jimmy, I'm sure someone would take you up on it, even if it wasn't $30,000."

                    Sorry ameriken, that idea is a nonstarter!

                    Can you imagine Bluejay's condition #6 ever being resolved here? Eek

                      mayhem's avatar - 142g5yd
                      Fort Worth, TX
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                      Posted: April 9, 2011, 11:55 am - IP Logged

                      trouble is....no one can predict what's "due",  because ethically speaking,  nothing is "due".

                      while it is true some numbers haven't appeared for awhile in comparison to others,  still on every draw, each number has the same equal chance to appear as the next,  which could mean you could get the number 7 seven times in a row,  or you might not see the number 7 for seven months.

                      if anyone could predict past due into future profit dollars,  the lottery would be broke.

                      no one can

                      the "past due" mantra is the achilles heal of lottery predictors,  because everyone that thinks that,  keeps manufacturing reasons why that may be true.

                      the only way a person *might* be able to convince anyone that past due numbers do come in "eventually",  is if they had access to the algorithims of computer drawn lotteries,  and may have picked up an anomoly in the program, before the programmers reprogramed the program.

                      which they would do,  once they sensed one of "you" caught it.....sending you guys back to the prediction stone age (once again).

                      and ball sets?   especially knowing that ball sets / machines change out,  making future "due numbers" a physical impossibility.

                      throwing a wad of cash at an eventual guess,  just makes it a more expensive guess.

                      Since no one has a time machine, then yes, everything we do here is a guess at best. But certain statistical probabilities hold true over the long term. Keeping it real simple the average interval for a EOO/OEE/HLL/LHH draw in any pick 3 lottery ever created is less than 3. So if you see that it is out by say 9, does that really hold zero significance to you? I mean we know that a triple is only going to happen 2 or 3 times a year. Is this just a religious belief or is it a fact? If you were given two possibilities to wager on as follows: A. New Jersey will have an all odd draw within the next 7 draws. or B. New Jersey will draw "222" every draw for 7 draws, are you telling me these are equally as likely?

                      Again it comes down to time. A majority of states have had "222" drawn in the last 2 years which is about how long you would have to win before there is no chance to come out ahead. The other option you'll have 7 draws for it to happen. Now if it has not happened in 35 draws, which is the longest in a decade, is that completely insignificant? I'm not making assertions as to which one is better or if they are equally as likely I'm just asking your opinion. 

                      How you do anything is how you do everything.

                        ameriken's avatar - 33ojew2
                        Denver, Co
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                        Posted: April 9, 2011, 1:52 pm - IP Logged

                        trouble is....no one can predict what's "due",  because ethically speaking,  nothing is "due".

                        while it is true some numbers haven't appeared for awhile in comparison to others,  still on every draw, each number has the same equal chance to appear as the next,  which could mean you could get the number 7 seven times in a row,  or you might not see the number 7 for seven months.

                        if anyone could predict past due into future profit dollars,  the lottery would be broke.

                        no one can

                        the "past due" mantra is the achilles heal of lottery predictors,  because everyone that thinks that,  keeps manufacturing reasons why that may be true.

                        the only way a person *might* be able to convince anyone that past due numbers do come in "eventually",  is if they had access to the algorithims of computer drawn lotteries,  and may have picked up an anomoly in the program, before the programmers reprogramed the program.

                        which they would do,  once they sensed one of "you" caught it.....sending you guys back to the prediction stone age (once again).

                        and ball sets?   especially knowing that ball sets / machines change out,  making future "due numbers" a physical impossibility.

                        throwing a wad of cash at an eventual guess,  just makes it a more expensive guess.

                        "trouble is....no one can predict what's "due",  because ethically speaking,  nothing is "due"."

                        "if anyone could predict past due into future profit dollars,  the lottery would be broke.

                        no one can"

                        I don't think he said he could 'predict' what's due. Guess what, everyone knows that it's impossible to predict the exact numbers that will show in the next draw. The idea behind system play, at least in my view is to attempt to monopolize on the observable patterns in order to better ones odds of winning the jackpot and/or win more secondary and tertiary prizes. And if someone, by using a system, can reduce their losses and perhaps even break even or get ahead while waiting on the near impossibility of hitting a jackpot, then go for it. If he's having overall better success going after 'due' numbers than he did with QP's, then that's all that  matters.

                          Avatar
                          Kentucky
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                          Posted: April 9, 2011, 3:36 pm - IP Logged

                          Has it occured to either of you that when he gets no takers for games where the house edge is only 5%, that lottery players, with a 50% house edge to contend with, would never enter his mind?

                          As for the jackpot possibilities in the lottery, take note of rule #2.  I don't think he would worry that someone would hit the jackpot more than 10 times out of twenty with each simulation being only 200,000 draws.  Besides, if he's smart, he'd monopolize on the myth that Pick-3's are "easier" to beat than jackpot games, and restrict his challenge to them.  Do you think you would collect the $30K by beating the house 11 or more times out of 20 betting on 200,000 Pick-3 draws during each simulation?  If you think you can do it, send him an email and suggest it.  And while you're at it, let him know there is a system over here that can beat him in a (5,39) lotto, provided he can program it!  Big Smile

                          It occurred to me that I never read about a Craps, Roulette, or Baccarat system that claimed it could beat the house edge infinitely. I would find it extraordinary if anyone never making that claim took up that challenge. I've read where some Blackjack systems make extraordinary claims, but Bluejay's offer doesn't apply to Blackjack systems.

                          I know of Craps system that gives excellent results but the minimum play for Bluejay's challenge "using common Vegas rules" "that could actually be used in a typical Vegas casino" in 200,000 trials is $9 million. His "I'm giving a whopping 10 to 1 odds" on a $3000 is only a 0.33% return on the minimum amount (real or imaginary) required to bet.

                          "Betting systems don't work, plain and simple.  My challenge proves it.", but don't people create betting systems for live casino play and not for "a computer simulation" that "I (Bluejay) will program a computer simulation and provide you with the results as well as the source code"?

                          It's nice touch by adding "so you can have your own expert(s) verify its accuracy." but that doesn't make the challenge less bogus. Rule 7 explains the computer simulation, but is just a strawman approach to any system based on actual casino play especially when Bluejay acknowledges his computer simulation might be in error.

                          I made a claim that a 2 if 5 wheel using all 56 numbers in 46 combos using all 46 bonus numbers has slight edge over 46 QPs in matching 2 numbers and and matching the bonus number in an infinite number of trials. Do you think anyone would take up a challenge betting $3000 to win $30,000, the 46 QPs would match 2 numbers on the same line and match the bonus number on one line every time in 200,000 trials (using a computer simulation I wrote and verified according to my rules)?

                          It's called stacking the deck and only a dummy would play so Bluejay can claim "No one has ever accepted this challenge"

                            ameriken's avatar - 33ojew2
                            Denver, Co
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                            Posted: April 9, 2011, 4:26 pm - IP Logged

                            "It's called stacking the deck and only a dummy would play so Bluejay can claim "No one has ever accepted this challenge""

                            ...and it has absolutely nothing to do with lottery systems and playing the lottery.

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                              Kentucky
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                              February 14, 2006
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                              Posted: April 9, 2011, 4:48 pm - IP Logged

                              "trouble is....no one can predict what's "due",  because ethically speaking,  nothing is "due"."

                              "if anyone could predict past due into future profit dollars,  the lottery would be broke.

                              no one can"

                              I don't think he said he could 'predict' what's due. Guess what, everyone knows that it's impossible to predict the exact numbers that will show in the next draw. The idea behind system play, at least in my view is to attempt to monopolize on the observable patterns in order to better ones odds of winning the jackpot and/or win more secondary and tertiary prizes. And if someone, by using a system, can reduce their losses and perhaps even break even or get ahead while waiting on the near impossibility of hitting a jackpot, then go for it. If he's having overall better success going after 'due' numbers than he did with QP's, then that's all that  matters.

                              "I don't think he said he could 'predict' what's due."

                              Just like nobody to my knowledge on LP has ever claimed they used a system to win a PB or MM system either. It's called proving a negative or proving a claim never made. If nobody said they can predict what's due why would they have to prove they can?

                              I believe the key thing that distinguishes system from QPs is personal choice. SP players know they can do no worse picking their own numbers and know they can expect a better payoff if their system functions as intended. At one time I believed QP players didn't care what combinations they got and just stuck their 5 or 10 QPs into their pockets and checked them after the drawing. Apparently some QP players don't like the random combos they asked for, turn them back in for another set of random combos, and repeat as needed because they know the other sets can do no worse.

                              Ironic that both sides make their choices based on "it can do no worse" when the object of making the wager is to win.

                                 
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