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What is a lottery system? What distinguishes a lottery system from guesses, dreams and quick picks?

Topic closed. 918 replies. Last post 6 years ago by mayhem.

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RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
19826 Posts
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Posted: April 4, 2011, 11:40 am - IP Logged

RJOH:  Just getting to the pavement from where I'm located feels like 40 miles and I don't relish it.  I go to town when I have to for chicken feed, groceries and necessaries.  My needs don't include zillions of dollars.  A $10 million dollar jackpot or a 100 million aren't among the things I think about.

Now that I'm older I'm some what the same way, I only play when I'm in town which is a 2 miles drive.  Like you I don't need zillions of dollars so when I play, picking the game with the largest jackpot for its odds just gives me more bangs for my buck.

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
             Evil Looking       

    mayhem's avatar - 142g5yd
    Fort Worth, TX
    United States
    Member #106060
    February 11, 2011
    188 Posts
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    Posted: April 4, 2011, 12:42 pm - IP Logged

    Wait a minute.... 

    "What is a lottery system? What distinguishes a lottery system from guesses, dreams and quick picks?"

     

    Nothing. Guesses, dreams and quick picks are systems.

    How you do anything is how you do everything.


      United States
      Member #93947
      July 10, 2010
      2180 Posts
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      Posted: April 4, 2011, 3:37 pm - IP Logged

      Jimboo-boo!!!!!!!

      As a member in good standing of the Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Internet Dead Horses I am compelled to ask, "What useful purpose would it serve, other than having someone else do your homework, to have a "Bottom Ten" list?"

      Are you exercising some sadist tendency to embarrass someone or cause them hurt feeling for your own gratification? Or do you need fodder to further your agenda? (Well, scratch that. Obviously you do. I mean, there are people still paying lotteries. Not to mention your four prime arguments have begun failing more often.)                         

      But if you must have a Bottom Ten, I want to be NUMBER 1. Over the lifetime I've been here, I'm made 10 predictions and not one has come true. My winning ration is 0%. I deserve to be NUMBER 1!

      Jimboo-boo!!!!! Why would YOU need a much better idea of how anyone is doing with their predictions? Are you considering starting a World Series of Lottery Players and need to recruit stars? Maybe you are starting a World Lottery Player Leaderboard. Want help designing your baseball-like trading cards? 

      Most people here seem to be interested in who is doing well, not who is doing not so good.

      Have you really thought about this? Even the slightest? You would have to set up some minimum standards. And the people doing poorly would eventually quit posting, never improving their stats. And if they did, no one would know it.

      What about the slights people would get across the board for having an opinion and yet not being a good predictor? So now you have created more dissension and more tension. For what?

      Not a good idea at all for a discussion forum. Members are not going to remain members if they are being held up as the ten worst predictors on the entire board. They'll quit predicting.

      But hey! Did you notice under Lottery Post Administration? There is a forum for SUGGESTIONS. That might be a good place to make SUGGESTIONS like this. Of course, I'm merely SUGGESTING it.

      garyo1954 said, "What useful purpose would it serve, other than having someone else do your homework, to have a "Bottom Ten" list?"

      The useful purpose of the prediction statistics including the means and standard deviations of the Prize Ratios is that it would be harder to point to the "Top Ten" list as proof that one "system" or the other "works," which is spurious and misleading.

        garyo1954's avatar - garyo
        Dallas, Texas
        United States
        Member #4549
        May 2, 2004
        1691 Posts
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        Posted: April 4, 2011, 5:35 pm - IP Logged

        garyo1954 said, "What useful purpose would it serve, other than having someone else do your homework, to have a "Bottom Ten" list?"

        The useful purpose of the prediction statistics including the means and standard deviations of the Prize Ratios is that it would be harder to point to the "Top Ten" list as proof that one "system" or the other "works," which is spurious and misleading.

        Jimbooble-looble!!!!!

        I see what you did there!

        "I just looked, and I can't find any way to see what the AVERAGE predictor accomplished, or what the "Bottom Ten" lost."  - jimbooble-looble's original post

        To ask again, why do YOU care what the AVERAGE predictor accomplished or what the "Bottom Ten" lost? 

        Granted I don't spend time on the Predictions board, (sorry guys, I'm just not that emotionally invested in tracking you down to ask for monopoly money), but the system automatically pays out standardized amounts to level the playing field.

        Maybe I asked backward: jimbooble-looble, Are you being shorted monopoly nickels now?

        When you consider the various prize amounts and various games, a standardized payout seems the logical and most efficient way to evaluate.

        For example, in Connoquenessing, PA, the prize for Cash 5 starts are $125,000 and rolls up. It is currently at $225,000. In Rome, TX Cash 5 pays about $22,000, six days a week. It is currently at about $22,000. 

        Somebody in Texas would have to predict 10 winners to win the same money as the person who predicted tonight's winner in Pennsylvania. 

        But this standardized payout on the Predictions board does away with all that. Now, it might mean someone is getting less monopoly nickels than the state is paying in real dollars, and some getting more, but it doesn't change the fact that they predicted the outcome. And predicting the outcome is what the Predictions board is all about. Remember back in pre-K when kids got a gold star for being good, and didn't get one for not being good, and the kids with the most gold starts got cookies and you didn't?

        Yeah, something like that.


          United States
          Member #93947
          July 10, 2010
          2180 Posts
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          Posted: April 4, 2011, 6:13 pm - IP Logged

          Jimbooble-looble!!!!!

          I see what you did there!

          "I just looked, and I can't find any way to see what the AVERAGE predictor accomplished, or what the "Bottom Ten" lost."  - jimbooble-looble's original post

          To ask again, why do YOU care what the AVERAGE predictor accomplished or what the "Bottom Ten" lost? 

          Granted I don't spend time on the Predictions board, (sorry guys, I'm just not that emotionally invested in tracking you down to ask for monopoly money), but the system automatically pays out standardized amounts to level the playing field.

          Maybe I asked backward: jimbooble-looble, Are you being shorted monopoly nickels now?

          When you consider the various prize amounts and various games, a standardized payout seems the logical and most efficient way to evaluate.

          For example, in Connoquenessing, PA, the prize for Cash 5 starts are $125,000 and rolls up. It is currently at $225,000. In Rome, TX Cash 5 pays about $22,000, six days a week. It is currently at about $22,000. 

          Somebody in Texas would have to predict 10 winners to win the same money as the person who predicted tonight's winner in Pennsylvania. 

          But this standardized payout on the Predictions board does away with all that. Now, it might mean someone is getting less monopoly nickels than the state is paying in real dollars, and some getting more, but it doesn't change the fact that they predicted the outcome. And predicting the outcome is what the Predictions board is all about. Remember back in pre-K when kids got a gold star for being good, and didn't get one for not being good, and the kids with the most gold starts got cookies and you didn't?

          Yeah, something like that.

          garyo1954 asks,

          "To ask again, why do YOU care what the AVERAGE predictor accomplished or what the 'Bottom Ten' lost?"

          I care because,

          "The useful purpose of the prediction statistics including the means and standard deviations of the Prize Ratios is that it would be harder to point to the 'Top Ten' list as proof that one 'system' or the other 'works,' which is spurious and misleading."

            garyo1954's avatar - garyo
            Dallas, Texas
            United States
            Member #4549
            May 2, 2004
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            Posted: April 4, 2011, 7:07 pm - IP Logged

            garyo1954 asks,

            "To ask again, why do YOU care what the AVERAGE predictor accomplished or what the 'Bottom Ten' lost?"

            I care because,

            "The useful purpose of the prediction statistics including the means and standard deviations of the Prize Ratios is that it would be harder to point to the 'Top Ten' list as proof that one 'system' or the other 'works,' which is spurious and misleading."

            jimbooble-looble

            Laughing so hard I can barely type. My understanding of the Prediction board is it is a PREDICTION board. I haven't seen any claims that it was intended to prove anything.

            In the end, you get the prize money, the gold star, check by your name, whatever the designated acknowledgement is, that you made an accurate prediction.

            How is it 'spurious and misleading' when you get what you play for?

            I'm not going to be evil and ask for a rephrase. I'll just allow perhaps you are attempting to use it for proof, when it was never intended to be so.

            But that still doesn't answer the question why you care what the average predictor accomplished and what the "Bottm Ten" lost.

              ameriken's avatar - 33ojew2
              Denver, Co
              United States
              Member #103046
              December 29, 2010
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              Posted: April 4, 2011, 8:24 pm - IP Logged

              garyo1954 said, "What useful purpose would it serve, other than having someone else do your homework, to have a "Bottom Ten" list?"

              The useful purpose of the prediction statistics including the means and standard deviations of the Prize Ratios is that it would be harder to point to the "Top Ten" list as proof that one "system" or the other "works," which is spurious and misleading.

              I really don't think anyone cares about all that, except you perhaps. The prediction board is not there to prove anything to anyone, it's just another added feature for the entertainment of LP members. I highly doubt the majority of lottery players, when looking for information on winning the lottery, are googling the words "means standard deviation prize ratios".

              However, perhaps you can talk to Todd and if you are willing to put in the time and effort and money to create such a thing, and can prove to him that it would be a useful addition that would attract many new members to LP, perhaps he may entertain the idea.

              Or, perhaps not.

               

              Just sayin'

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                January 29, 2011
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                Posted: April 4, 2011, 8:51 pm - IP Logged

                I really don't think anyone cares about all that, except you perhaps. The prediction board is not there to prove anything to anyone, it's just another added feature for the entertainment of LP members. I highly doubt the majority of lottery players, when looking for information on winning the lottery, are googling the words "means standard deviation prize ratios".

                However, perhaps you can talk to Todd and if you are willing to put in the time and effort and money to create such a thing, and can prove to him that it would be a useful addition that would attract many new members to LP, perhaps he may entertain the idea.

                Or, perhaps not.

                 

                Just sayin'

                As it is there's nothing similar to it anywhere else on the web and the prediction page gets a lot of usage from members.  Probably for most of us it's a reality check as much as anything else.  All those people being moved by too much blame or praise on the forums only need a few days of posting there to discover Cloud 9 can become Cloud .0009 in the space of a few hours.

                The users who sit on the top rungs of the Top Predictors page have been doing it a long time, they've indicated.  Their statistics histories indicate they've also been at the top for a while when they should have been meandering all over the list with everyone else.  Dots on a scatterchart.

                I believe it means something about what they're doing.  I don't care what a statistician with an axe to grind thinks it doesn't mean. 

                The ocean of differences between what I believe and what a community of bean counters by profession believes is vast, but isn't significant enough in the overall scheme of things to make a dent in any reality I'd have any respect for.  If we agreed on anything at all it still wouldn't make a dent.


                  United States
                  Member #93947
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                  Posted: April 4, 2011, 9:20 pm - IP Logged

                  As it is there's nothing similar to it anywhere else on the web and the prediction page gets a lot of usage from members.  Probably for most of us it's a reality check as much as anything else.  All those people being moved by too much blame or praise on the forums only need a few days of posting there to discover Cloud 9 can become Cloud .0009 in the space of a few hours.

                  The users who sit on the top rungs of the Top Predictors page have been doing it a long time, they've indicated.  Their statistics histories indicate they've also been at the top for a while when they should have been meandering all over the list with everyone else.  Dots on a scatterchart.

                  I believe it means something about what they're doing.  I don't care what a statistician with an axe to grind thinks it doesn't mean. 

                  The ocean of differences between what I believe and what a community of bean counters by profession believes is vast, but isn't significant enough in the overall scheme of things to make a dent in any reality I'd have any respect for.  If we agreed on anything at all it still wouldn't make a dent.

                  Joey says, "The ocean of differences between what I believe and what a community of bean counters by profession believes is vast, but isn't significant enough in the overall scheme of things to make a dent in any reality I'd have any respect for.  If we agreed on anything at all it still wouldn't make a dent."

                  Well Joey, inasmuch as there doesn't appear to be anyone here that understands the point I'm trying to make, at least no one with the courage to post, you're probably right that including descriptive statistics of the predictions would not "make a dent."

                  --Jimmy4164

                    visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
                    light on my feet
                    United States
                    Member #356
                    May 20, 2002
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                    Posted: April 4, 2011, 11:18 pm - IP Logged

                    Wait a minute.... 

                    "What is a lottery system? What distinguishes a lottery system from guesses, dreams and quick picks?"

                     

                    Nothing. Guesses, dreams and quick picks are systems.

                    "ummm,  true statement it is"   (yoda)

                    which has been my position since my LP birth.

                    however,  the common sense no no button goes off when one advocate says to another...."my system can beat up your system".

                    which is what systems players shout (and you know kinds of "systems players" i am referring to).

                    i don't recall ever hearing that QP advocates think that quick picks win "more".

                    i certainly don't.

                     QP'ers seem to assign the odds as even steven, just like the 70/30 thingy yells.    ----->   that QP's win the same.

                    it's system players that claim they have an edge over QP's,  and that tain't true.

                    that's where the wrasslin match starts  Boxing

                                "i am .........."meant to"       

                    P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                             until further notice,  it's  france everyday

                      garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                      Dallas, Texas
                      United States
                      Member #4549
                      May 2, 2004
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                      Posted: April 4, 2011, 11:34 pm - IP Logged

                      Joey says, "The ocean of differences between what I believe and what a community of bean counters by profession believes is vast, but isn't significant enough in the overall scheme of things to make a dent in any reality I'd have any respect for.  If we agreed on anything at all it still wouldn't make a dent."

                      Well Joey, inasmuch as there doesn't appear to be anyone here that understands the point I'm trying to make, at least no one with the courage to post, you're probably right that including descriptive statistics of the predictions would not "make a dent."

                      --Jimmy4164

                      Jimbooble-looble!!!!

                      Here is the Top 50 Highest Lifetime Hit Ratio posters for Cash5 with standard deviation, average deviation, and median. I suspect you can do the entire 4526 member database with all 396,339,030 predictions.

                        visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
                        light on my feet
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                        Posted: April 4, 2011, 11:43 pm - IP Logged

                        "oh yes they do.   it would provide a quick answer TO that debate...."

                        That answer was known once the game was established. Are you telling us the odd of winning the jackpot or any prize are different between a like number of QPs and PPs?

                        I said there is difference in coverage, but that's based on the game odds. A few pages ago I described it in detail and nobody disputed it.

                        "pre draw"

                        Past drawing results and any tests conducted before the drawing are irrelevant when all 56 numbers and all 46 bonus numbers are covered. If you don't know the math behind a 46 combo 56 number 2 if 2 wheel, ask someone else to explain it to you.

                        this is a great example of why i don't bother the good people of the prediction boards.

                        not that i couldn't have a field day,  and single handedly rack up the "most dis-liked member" points in one day.

                        i have no ego need for a full scale wrasslin match,  whilst being fully capable of it.

                        i prefer this ----->       Cheers   ,  to this ---->   Boxing  ,  and only when this    Evil Looking   happens do i ....

                        when stack decided he needed a round #2 from him and i,  well ....

                          the "stacks" of the LP world are the ones that deserve my "attention".

                        that's because stack fades in and out of "what if's" into arrogance/sarcasticland.

                        so,  the "stacks" demand a little spotlight.

                        when you combine an "i know i can" with arrogance,  you get the "ok,  let's see you prove it",  instead of incessant pages of back and forth avoidance nonsense that stack has now launched into.

                        coverage, smoverage.  it's bogus wishful thinking verbage,  and unlike you,  i can prove it

                        pick your "2 if 2 wheel",  or whatever "coverage" you think you can manufacture,  and bring them front and center.

                        until you back up your claims that your "methodology" is "better than" plain ol QP's,   your blowing carbon dioxide

                        me -----> i am waiting with my little QP's to match up against your what if's.

                        and.....none of that "oh,  i don't like that set of numbers the RNG first spit, i think i will keep spinning the wheel until i see a set of QP's that look good".

                        one spin of the wheel, whatever i need to do,  amount of numbers matched against your wishful thinking wise, i am there.

                        common sense says you can either step up and "prove it",  or expend more effort (and posts) embarrassing yourself why you "can't".

                                    "i am .........."meant to"       

                        P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                                 until further notice,  it's  france everyday

                          visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
                          light on my feet
                          United States
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                          Posted: April 4, 2011, 11:52 pm - IP Logged

                          There will never be a way to test QP's against SP's because the data can't be attained.  The QP's show a

                          even ratio to SP's when looking at ticket sales but this means ltttle.   SP's are two quite different types

                          of tickets.  The first is playing birthdays, childs age, tick tact doo ect....  The second is the developed system

                          play.  One must know the ratios of sales vs JP's and other prizes won.  Without this anything is just a

                          guess no matter what hi-tech statical tools one uses.  A ratio of DSP prizes won to DSP sales is the only way

                          to calculate it.  If 70% of ticket sales are QP's then I would expect 70% of JP's to be QP's.  The same applies to

                          SP's if you don't sort out the difference between the two types.  What if only 30% of the SP's were DSP and

                          accounted for 70% of the SP jackpots.  This is something we will never know but does show us what is needed

                          to solve the issue.  Some may argue that the percent of sales will determind the ratio and this seems to be

                          the case but until all the data is considered then we will never know.  If QP and SP both show a ratio of 1 to 1

                          based on the percent of sales +/- some small deviation from time to time I suppect that until someone produces

                          a system that wins many jackpots within a very short time frame then it would not show up in the overall. Even a

                          system that hit 2 or 3 JP's a year would not tilt the game out of place playing 20 lines or less per play unless several

                          people were using it on the same game.

                          RL   

                          welp,  anutter schicken move designed to skip over what would prove it.

                          a good ol heads up mano a mano measured out over time dance between a systems analyst "number picker" like yourself,  and mr go to the LP RNG and post random numbers little ol me.

                          i dunno what's worse...

                          the lengths "you guys" go to in saying you "can",  and the incessant amount of time expenditure you throw at it,  or

                          the excuses you throw at it, once a guy like me throws the common sense blanket over it?

                          which takes more effort ?

                          remember the last thread i posted my LP RNG QP's to get stack to come hither?  (you know,  cuz i back up what i say i can do)

                          it took me what,  2.3 minutes

                          you cannot be afraid of 2.3 minutes of "effort",  can you ? ? ?

                                      "i am .........."meant to"       

                          P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                                   until further notice,  it's  france everyday

                            mayhem's avatar - 142g5yd
                            Fort Worth, TX
                            United States
                            Member #106060
                            February 11, 2011
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                            Posted: April 5, 2011, 12:01 am - IP Logged

                            I really don't think anyone cares about all that, except you perhaps. The prediction board is not there to prove anything to anyone, it's just another added feature for the entertainment of LP members. I highly doubt the majority of lottery players, when looking for information on winning the lottery, are googling the words "means standard deviation prize ratios".

                            However, perhaps you can talk to Todd and if you are willing to put in the time and effort and money to create such a thing, and can prove to him that it would be a useful addition that would attract many new members to LP, perhaps he may entertain the idea.

                            Or, perhaps not.

                             

                            Just sayin'

                            I actually did google that.

                            How you do anything is how you do everything.


                              United States
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                              July 10, 2010
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                              Posted: April 5, 2011, 12:31 am - IP Logged

                              Jimbooble-looble!!!!

                              Here is the Top 50 Highest Lifetime Hit Ratio posters for Cash5 with standard deviation, average deviation, and median. I suspect you can do the entire 4526 member database with all 396,339,030 predictions.

                              The mean and standard deviation of the "Top 50" of a set of 4526 numbers is of no value to the discussion here.  You're wasting your time, and mine.  Besides, it's clear you wouldn't believe any of the inferences that could be drawn from a full analysis anyway.  I think you need a nap.

                                 
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