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What is a lottery system? What distinguishes a lottery system from guesses, dreams and quick picks?

Topic closed. 918 replies. Last post 6 years ago by mayhem.

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RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
19831 Posts
Offline
Posted: April 2, 2011, 8:16 am - IP Logged

RL:  The prediction page here pays in monopoly money, but at least the tickets are purchased with the same currency.  Not many people posting predictions are winning enough to purchase any hotels, so they haven't felt the need to offer any as prizes, I suppose.

Posting on the predictions board doesn't pay anything but it does gives one bragging rights.  You'll notice that members who've posted on it don't do much bragging, it's the ones that have never "embarrassed" themselves by posting that do.

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
             Evil Looking       

    Avatar

    United States
    Member #105312
    January 29, 2011
    435 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: April 2, 2011, 9:28 am - IP Logged

    Posting on the predictions board doesn't pay anything but it does gives one bragging rights.  You'll notice that members who've posted on it don't do much bragging, it's the ones that have never "embarrassed" themselves by posting that do.

    There is that.

      Avatar
      Kentucky
      United States
      Member #32652
      February 14, 2006
      7322 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: April 2, 2011, 11:24 am - IP Logged

      Stack47,

      When you say, "I remember making a comment when you were babbling about the 70/30 ratio and showed you exactly what the PB website said. 'About 70% to 80% of purchases are computer picks. About 70% to 80% of winners are computer picks.' "

      after VisionDude has said, "just so we are clear,  i realize the 70/30 is a percentage not only of purchases by whom,  but it also a percentage of who wins what."

      ...I can't help but ask why you feel the need to be so strident with him on the issue?

      --Jimmy4164

      "I can't help but ask why you feel the need to be so strident with him on the issue?"

      Because last time though I declined, he was insistent on having a contest that would prove nothing. You may have notice it was "my self picks versus his QPs", but I was talking about a 2 if 2 wheel that used all the numbers in the matrix; there are no "self picks". There is sight jackpot winning statistical edge over a like number of QPs, but only if the QPs don't include all the numbers anywhere on the 46 lines and one of those numbers are drawn. There is higher edge for getting payoffs that include matching the bonus number, but again only if QPs fail to match the bonus number.

      I never said the wheel had a better chance of getting a payoff by matching 1 + 1, 2 + 1, 3 + 0, 3 + 1, 4 + 0, 4 + 1, or the jackpot so I have no idea of what he thought a contest would prove. The "odd of" chart gives the probable outcome and it suggests either method would result in a loss.

      A contest where two people put their numbers on a post had no value in a topic about purchased QPs versus purchased player picks especially when the results are mathematically predictable.

        garyo1954's avatar - garyo
        Dallas, Texas
        United States
        Member #4549
        May 2, 2004
        1736 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: April 2, 2011, 11:37 am - IP Logged

        Couldn't get my OCD started yesterday. Trying jumping it, pushing it, kicking it, cussing it. Finally gave up.

        Back on page 1 is an excel chart showing the Texas Pick 3 sets and how long they had been out.

        {123568} was longest out. 

        {123578} was second longest.

        {034789} was third longest out.

        The last 7 draws were:

        480 - Set #3

        423 - no hit

        463 - no hit

        029 - no hit

        709 - Set #3

        993 - Set #3

        386 - Set #1

        Not much of a victory but it does start the day off without responding to all the negative Nellys. Besides city hall is closed and I can't pay my water bill, so I have to find something to do.

          Avatar
          Kentucky
          United States
          Member #32652
          February 14, 2006
          7322 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: April 2, 2011, 4:48 pm - IP Logged

          "Whether you're talking about posting your purchased QPs or the RNG results you play 'make believe' with as proof, it doesn't matter because you would be the first and only person soliciting a system on that thread. As much as I'm tempted not to tell you, if you did, you would break the LP rules and probably get banned."

          Having very little past experience with it, I'm finding the task of trying to make a point with people who have difficulty thinking in the abstract or in hypothetical terms, very frustrating.  I know you've got it in you; just try a little harder.

          Then you should have read the rules or the last post this in this thread http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/228813/4 before suggesting people were posting winning tickets to sell a system.

          I don't have to think outside the box to understand why players purchase more QPs in multi-million jackpot games. I don't have a clue how to create a PB or MM jackpot winning system played for a reasonable amount of money so I'd be just as skeptical as you if someone claimed they did. The difference between you and me is I won't comment until the claim is made and so far no claim has been made in that thread.

          We both know the odds of winning something by purchasing 5 QPs or 5 PPs are exactly the same and there is nothing a system can do to change those odds. One of the tickets in the "post your winning tickets" thread was on a 5/39 1/14 game and shows why some players decide to use a system instead of QPs. The player used 6 WPS and 3 bonus numbers to get a 4 + 1 match, 4 + 0 match, 3 + 1, and two 3 + 0 matches on 5 tickets.

          Before the drawing the odds of those 5 tickets winning the jackpot or something were exactly the same as 5 QPs. I'll concede the results were based on matching 4 numbers plus the bonus number, but the system functioned as it was intended. Call it luck or whatever but had it matched zero or one number, it still would be no worse than what you would expect of 5 QPs.

          What is the downside of picking your own numbers compared to QPs?

            RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

            United States
            Member #59354
            March 13, 2008
            3985 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: April 2, 2011, 7:49 pm - IP Logged

            Stack

            Amen,  The odds are not based on the set at all.  They also never change.  A good set and a bad set both

            have the exact same odds.  A SP and a QP have the same odds.  The odds do not control the game but

            are used to describe the random chance of picking the correct set.  I don't know how you could put it

            any better.  The odds mean nothing to the system player because they are static.  The odds are based on

            a player making a random selection.  If a player makes his or her selection based on some data that is

            somewhat predictable then some of the randomness is removed and the odds will no longer be valid. If one

            cannot predict some event in part or in whole then there would be know reason to have a system and a

            person would be fooling themselves trying build one and it would be a complete waste of time.  We system

            players believe we can predict some events that when connected togeather will provide us a better chance

            of winning some sort of prize.  We also can play a certain event for several days not knowing the exact draw

            it will show but that it will show. This may not be enough to win a jackpot but it can produce better results

            in producing more lower level prizes.  If one believes that nothing can be predicted within a small window

            of time then they would also not believe that a system pick was any better then a QP.  We have been up and

            down, round and round this mountian so much that I am getting dizzy.  The more you can predict the better

            the system and the more you will win.  Even when we make several correct predictions we still may not win

            but it's worth a shot and I will take my predictions over a QP anyday.  So you see the argument is not

            about which is better but,  can we predict enough of the data to make it pay off.  Some people have the

            nack and some do not.  Those who have never tried to develop some skills doing this should not condemn

            those who do.  I have a bayesian neural network that I used for many years that had a great prediction

            rate for many of the values my system requires.  One day it just seemed to stop predicting anything.   I

            still believe I can fix it even though it has been a year since it quit.  If I lisen to those who think it is a waste

            of time then I would never know.  Some people are so set against SP players that they make it their lifes work

            to put us down.  They tell us that we just don't understand and that we need their help to be cured so we can

            have a real life.  If the life they offer is what I see here then thanks for your concerns, but no thanks.

            This should put an end to this nonsense, let them that think they can improve their play do it and find out for

            themselves. They will find out soon enough and some will have success and some won't.  I believe everyone

            can improve there play if they stick to it until they find something that works for them.  Don't ask someone to

            give up because you quit, or even worse never tried.

             

            RL

              RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

              United States
              Member #59354
              March 13, 2008
              3985 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: April 2, 2011, 8:07 pm - IP Logged

              Jimmy

              I just had a great ides, Why dont you start a thread named "Ask Jimmy" This way anyone who needed

              help with some math problem could post there problem there and you could help them work it out.  This

              way you would not need to troll other post and I think if you would not be so sarcastic that many would

              ask your help. Just an Idea, not trying to be mean or poke fun at you.

              RL


                United States
                Member #93947
                July 10, 2010
                2180 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: April 2, 2011, 10:49 pm - IP Logged

                Then you should have read the rules or the last post this in this thread http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/228813/4 before suggesting people were posting winning tickets to sell a system.

                I don't have to think outside the box to understand why players purchase more QPs in multi-million jackpot games. I don't have a clue how to create a PB or MM jackpot winning system played for a reasonable amount of money so I'd be just as skeptical as you if someone claimed they did. The difference between you and me is I won't comment until the claim is made and so far no claim has been made in that thread.

                We both know the odds of winning something by purchasing 5 QPs or 5 PPs are exactly the same and there is nothing a system can do to change those odds. One of the tickets in the "post your winning tickets" thread was on a 5/39 1/14 game and shows why some players decide to use a system instead of QPs. The player used 6 WPS and 3 bonus numbers to get a 4 + 1 match, 4 + 0 match, 3 + 1, and two 3 + 0 matches on 5 tickets.

                Before the drawing the odds of those 5 tickets winning the jackpot or something were exactly the same as 5 QPs. I'll concede the results were based on matching 4 numbers plus the bonus number, but the system functioned as it was intended. Call it luck or whatever but had it matched zero or one number, it still would be no worse than what you would expect of 5 QPs.

                What is the downside of picking your own numbers compared to QPs?

                "What is the downside of picking your own numbers compared to QPs?"

                Aside from the fact that it takes more of your time, as long as it doesn't give you false hope to spend beyond your means, NOTHING WHATSOEVER!



                  United States
                  Member #93947
                  July 10, 2010
                  2180 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: April 2, 2011, 10:57 pm - IP Logged

                  Stack

                  Amen,  The odds are not based on the set at all.  They also never change.  A good set and a bad set both

                  have the exact same odds.  A SP and a QP have the same odds.  The odds do not control the game but

                  are used to describe the random chance of picking the correct set.  I don't know how you could put it

                  any better.  The odds mean nothing to the system player because they are static.  The odds are based on

                  a player making a random selection.  If a player makes his or her selection based on some data that is

                  somewhat predictable then some of the randomness is removed and the odds will no longer be valid. If one

                  cannot predict some event in part or in whole then there would be know reason to have a system and a

                  person would be fooling themselves trying build one and it would be a complete waste of time.  We system

                  players believe we can predict some events that when connected togeather will provide us a better chance

                  of winning some sort of prize.  We also can play a certain event for several days not knowing the exact draw

                  it will show but that it will show. This may not be enough to win a jackpot but it can produce better results

                  in producing more lower level prizes.  If one believes that nothing can be predicted within a small window

                  of time then they would also not believe that a system pick was any better then a QP.  We have been up and

                  down, round and round this mountian so much that I am getting dizzy.  The more you can predict the better

                  the system and the more you will win.  Even when we make several correct predictions we still may not win

                  but it's worth a shot and I will take my predictions over a QP anyday.  So you see the argument is not

                  about which is better but,  can we predict enough of the data to make it pay off.  Some people have the

                  nack and some do not.  Those who have never tried to develop some skills doing this should not condemn

                  those who do.  I have a bayesian neural network that I used for many years that had a great prediction

                  rate for many of the values my system requires.  One day it just seemed to stop predicting anything.   I

                  still believe I can fix it even though it has been a year since it quit.  If I lisen to those who think it is a waste

                  of time then I would never know.  Some people are so set against SP players that they make it their lifes work

                  to put us down.  They tell us that we just don't understand and that we need their help to be cured so we can

                  have a real life.  If the life they offer is what I see here then thanks for your concerns, but no thanks.

                  This should put an end to this nonsense, let them that think they can improve their play do it and find out for

                  themselves. They will find out soon enough and some will have success and some won't.  I believe everyone

                  can improve there play if they stick to it until they find something that works for them.  Don't ask someone to

                  give up because you quit, or even worse never tried.

                   

                  RL

                  "If a player makes his or her selection based on some data that is somewhat predictable then some of the randomness is removed and the odds will no longer be valid."

                  This statement is the crux of your fallacious reasoning.  I did not say this to be facetious.  It is meant to try to get you to do a complete reassesment of your approach.  None of the data is somewhat predictable.

                    RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                    United States
                    Member #59354
                    March 13, 2008
                    3985 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: April 2, 2011, 11:06 pm - IP Logged

                    Jimmy

                    And I say that this statement show your fallacy.

                    This statement is the crux of your fallacious reasoning.  I did not say this to be facetious.  It is meant to try to get you to do a complete reassesment of your approach.  None of the data is somewhat predictable.

                    So I guess this means nothing has changed  I say that much of the data is somewhat predictable you say none of it is.

                    RL


                      United States
                      Member #93947
                      July 10, 2010
                      2180 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: April 2, 2011, 11:21 pm - IP Logged

                      Jimmy

                      And I say that this statement show your fallacy.

                      This statement is the crux of your fallacious reasoning.  I did not say this to be facetious.  It is meant to try to get you to do a complete reassesment of your approach.  None of the data is somewhat predictable.

                      So I guess this means nothing has changed  I say that much of the data is somewhat predictable you say none of it is.

                      RL

                      There is a large body of knowledge in the world of math and science to support what I'm saying.  While I'm busy putting together but a tiny fragment of it to present here soon, I hope you have the time to do the same to support your position.

                        garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                        Dallas, Texas
                        United States
                        Member #4549
                        May 2, 2004
                        1736 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: April 2, 2011, 11:45 pm - IP Logged

                        "What is the downside of picking your own numbers compared to QPs?"

                        Aside from the fact that it takes more of your time, as long as it doesn't give you false hope to spend beyond your means, NOTHING WHATSOEVER!


                        Guess that settled that. 20 pages later we agree how we spend out time is our choice.

                          visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
                          light on my feet
                          United States
                          Member #356
                          May 20, 2002
                          2744 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: April 3, 2011, 12:01 am - IP Logged

                          "I can't help but ask why you feel the need to be so strident with him on the issue?"

                          Because last time though I declined, he was insistent on having a contest that would prove nothing. You may have notice it was "my self picks versus his QPs", but I was talking about a 2 if 2 wheel that used all the numbers in the matrix; there are no "self picks". There is sight jackpot winning statistical edge over a like number of QPs, but only if the QPs don't include all the numbers anywhere on the 46 lines and one of those numbers are drawn. There is higher edge for getting payoffs that include matching the bonus number, but again only if QPs fail to match the bonus number.

                          I never said the wheel had a better chance of getting a payoff by matching 1 + 1, 2 + 1, 3 + 0, 3 + 1, 4 + 0, 4 + 1, or the jackpot so I have no idea of what he thought a contest would prove. The "odd of" chart gives the probable outcome and it suggests either method would result in a loss.

                          A contest where two people put their numbers on a post had no value in a topic about purchased QPs versus purchased player picks especially when the results are mathematically predictable.

                          "A contest where two people put their numbers on a post had no value in a topic about purchased QPs versus purchased player picks especially when the results are mathematically predictable".

                             oh yes they do.   it would provide a quick answer TO that debate....and that's why guys like you refuse to partake in it.

                          ever wonder why I ALWAYS run to the challenge,  while "you guys" ALWAYS run away from it?

                          that in and of itself tells the whole story at LP concerning this issue.

                          if you guys had something,  you would knock each over to get in line to be the first to have a crack at that.

                          you know what i hear when the arrogance of the "stacks" stick their nose out -------> crickets

                          it's very simple.....the "last time" that stack is referring to,  he got mouthy with me,  and started talking trash....so i needed to demonstrate he wasn't remotely capable of backing up his bravado.

                          thus my eventual "qualification" methodology,  once you are determined to play in arrogance land.

                          all i needed to do with him is offer up a mano a mano contest.....my QP's vs whatever he can dream up.

                          pre draw

                          once i did that,  he cried to the hills and ran for manufacture excuse on the fly land.

                          the best (excuse) he could come up with?   i had to purchase the QP's in order for them to be valid in the contest.

                          what a crock. 

                          told him i would use LP's RNG,  and he cried about that.   wasn't "random enough" he insisted.

                          poor todd. 

                          told him he could pick any randon generator,  and he made up some lame excuse about that.

                          then,  being the man that i am,  i had enough of his chicken excuses.....i told him i would pay the money for my QP's,   so that he couldn't use the lame excuse they "needed to be purchased in order to be valid", with the caveat that if he lost,  he would reimburse me the money i laid out.......seeing howz he insisted they be "purchased"

                          no problema......if you insist on the purchase,  and your system is "superior",  you should agree to reimbursement 

                          chickened straight away from that one

                          stack is just another faux bravado that capitulates the "i cans",   talks trash to the "no you can'ts",  and when someone calls him on it,  out come some of the lamest excuses in the annals of LP

                          it's simple.....a little contest where i put up QP's pre draw against the bravado of stack,  seeing how stack has once again pretended he was arrogant "enough"

                          easy to do,  takes no time, easily witnessed by all,  and best of all......tain't nuttin like a little head to head that will show once and for all if system picks really can fair better than QP's........(like you people keep claiming they do).

                          anyone that says the QP's in the contest have to be purchased in order to be valid,  are far more desperate than anyone else in here.   that truly is about the lamest thing i have ever heard,  and truth #2,   even the other system players know that's a straight up lie.

                          the LP RNG is more than enough of a man to handle stack's false bravado

                          if you have to lie in hopes of sustaining your position in life.....you have no position to begin with

                          ok stack,  no chance of an LP academy award,  but you are the front runner for pinnochio man of the year.

                          let's hear some more "stack's lame excuse meanderings".

                          (so that i can help you embarass yourself,  seein how you are insistent upon it)

                                      "i am .........."meant to"       

                          P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                                   until further notice,  it's  france everyday

                            visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
                            light on my feet
                            United States
                            Member #356
                            May 20, 2002
                            2744 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: April 3, 2011, 12:17 am - IP Logged

                            "your self picks vs my QP's"

                            I remember making a comment when you were babbling about the 70/30 ratio and showed you exactly what the PB website said. "About 70% to 80% of purchases are computer picks. About 70% to 80% of winners are computer picks."

                            It's still must be difficult for you grasp one simple definition PURCHASES. That ratio is based on the number of PURCHASED QPs to the number of PURCHASED player picks. It's really simple; you have to PURCHASE a ticket and that's the only way that ticket can be a WINNER.

                            I highlighted the words you should look up in the dictionary so you can join in a civil conversation.

                            My self picks, RJ's, Pat's and your RNG numbers were all irrelevant to the 70/30 ratio then and now because none of them were PURCHASED tickets so none of them could be WINNERS.

                            I also gave the odds of matching the bonus ball directly from the PB website "1 in 61.74" and from the MM website "1 in 75". Jimmy is our expert on "rate of return" and you might ask him to explain it to you.

                            I made a comment that a MM player could use the 46 combo 2 if 2 of 56 number wheel from LP's systems and cover all 46 bonus numbers. Coin Toss and I discussed the value of playing a wheel that cost $46 and only guaranteed a $2 or $3 return and we both agreed it wasn't a very good bet and I suggested it has a "SLIGHT EDGE" over PURCHASING 46 QPs.

                            Apparently you didn't understand what a "SLIGHT EDGE" meant or believed it was impossible to use all 46 bonus number on 46 combos and wanted a contest that would prove absolutely nothing for Rdge's discussion about the 70/30 ratio.

                            "don't tell me you have memory loss (cuz LP has it all archived)."

                            If you find it tell us what those useless contests proved. How much imaginary money did everybody lose? (bet it wasn't as much imaginary money the players from Jimmy's imaginary Challenge statistics lost) 

                            And while we're on the subject of memory, that thread was closed probably because of it no longer addressed the topic and all the silliness from and directed to you. Don't challenge me to any more useless imaginary money contests or bate me into any silly name calling contests either because I won't respond.

                            This topic is interesting to many LP members and I won't be one of the reasons for its lock down.

                            ummmm.  didn't catch this before my last post,  as i was reading from the last post backward.

                            "purchases" have squat to do with a mano a mano test,  and you know it.

                            and really what you "explanation" above amounts to is more personal embarrassment,  the notion that you spend inordinate amounts of time for nothing. 

                            apparently,  the only time your effort qualifies you is when you lay money on it.

                            trouble is,  you can't play the hopefully they are ignorant / semantics game in here.

                            whatever "effort" you can manufacture can be displayed right here.....without the need to "purchase it".

                            that's a lie.

                            you know why threads like this "deteriorate"?    because of people like you that play these games.

                            all i do is offer countering info to demonstrate the fallacies contained in system play mentality.

                            guys like you lose your mind,  and pull out the arrogance card.

                            that's when "guys like me",  need to show guys like you,  the temperature of your carbon dioxide

                            challenge you?  i have to.  not cause i want to.....but because your arrogance contains "repeatability"

                            evidently,  that's the only thing you can repeat.

                            i don't blame you for looking for the exit door (again)

                                        "i am .........."meant to"       

                            P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                                     until further notice,  it's  france everyday

                              visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
                              light on my feet
                              United States
                              Member #356
                              May 20, 2002
                              2744 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: April 3, 2011, 12:36 am - IP Logged

                              Guess that settled that. 20 pages later we agree how we spend out time is our choice.

                              i don't have a problem how any body spends their time or money.

                                vision embraces "personal choice" 

                              (1) just don't present it as "fact" that anyone can create an edge over any other modality concerning the lottery,  because that sells false hope....unless you are willing to defend it.....vs ad infinitum hypothesizing "it does"

                              (2) and dont get all bent when others counter it with an opposing view in a thread like this per the topic

                              if you notice,  i only turn up the heat when "you guys" get your LP boxers in a bunch, and start to play in sarcasticland

                              it's interesting to watch how fast "you guys" get all riled up when a guy like me throws up an opposing "what if".

                              it's extremely apparent that in a world of positional strength,  the person in a position of strength doesn't come that unraveled that quickly.

                              not in here.   you guys deserve a positional speeding ticket.

                              one more reminder for tonight.....while "you guys" run away.....i run to ... 

                              that tells alot

                                          "i am .........."meant to"       

                              P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                                       until further notice,  it's  france everyday

                                 
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