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# What is a lottery system? What distinguishes a lottery system from guesses, dreams and quick picks?

Topic closed. 918 replies. Last post 6 years ago by mayhem.

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Dallas, Texas
United States
Member #4549
May 2, 2004
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 Posted: April 5, 2011, 12:40 am - IP Logged

jimbooble-looble!!!!

It took about 15 minutes to do that whole chart. And you are right. I don't believe there is anything there. That's the reason I didn't go farther and apply each deviation to each poster and determine a confidence level.

Mathematics sometimes leads us to a dead end. Been there. Done that.

The moron should get at least a point for entertaining your idea.

Kentucky
United States
Member #32652
February 14, 2006
7314 Posts
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 Posted: April 5, 2011, 1:28 am - IP Logged

"coverage, smoverage.  it's bogus wishful thinking verbage,  and unlike you,  i can prove it pick your "2 if 2 wheel",  or whatever "coverage" you think you can manufacture,  and bring them front and center. until you back up your claims that your "methodology" is "better than" plain ol QP's,"

Did you miss where I said the 2 if 5 wheel is on the pick-5 abbreviated wheel page on LP?

"common sense says you can either step up and "prove it",  or expend more effort (and posts) embarrassing yourself why you "can't"."

It's not my wheel or my methodology. If you want proof the wheel preforms as advertised, take that up with Todd.

Are you having a problem understanding how it's possible to use all 46 bonus balls on 46 lines?

Did you read the MM odds and payoff chart?

Do you understand why there is a 1 in 75 chance of matching the bonus number?

Do you understand a wheel is a lottery system designed to a specific thing?

The wheel uses all 56 numbers so there is no guess work and the results will always have a 2 number match and one bonus number match.

There is no reason why you can't run the wheel yourself and compare it with your 46 monopoly money QPs. It really not that complicated for anyone with a sixth grade education. Run it and show us your results; it shouldn't take a smart guy like you more that 5 minutes.

Jimmy is our resident expert on ROI and he can tell you what you should expect. And he may explain to you, if you use the same 46 lines in every drawing for the next 33 years, you'll always get a 2 number match and always match the bonus number, but you'll probably lose lots of monopoly money.

United States
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July 10, 2010
2180 Posts
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 Posted: April 5, 2011, 2:34 am - IP Logged

jimbooble-looble!!!!

It took about 15 minutes to do that whole chart. And you are right. I don't believe there is anything there. That's the reason I didn't go farther and apply each deviation to each poster and determine a confidence level.

Mathematics sometimes leads us to a dead end. Been there. Done that.

The moron should get at least a point for entertaining your idea.

I didn't say there wasn't anything there.

What I said was, "The mean and standard deviation of the 'Top 50' of a set of 4526 numbers is of no value to the discussion here.  You're wasting your time, and mine.  Besides, it's clear you wouldn't believe(*) any of the inferences that could be drawn from a full analysis anyway.  I think you need a nap."

I've stated my agenda numerous times.

What is yours?

(*) (or recognize)

United States
Member #93947
July 10, 2010
2180 Posts
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 Posted: April 5, 2011, 3:05 am - IP Logged

This whole discussion is becoming laughable.

When someone says that 70% of Powerball Jackpots are won with QuickPicks, you and your cohorts are quick to [rightfully] point out that the reason is because 70% of Powerball ticket purchases are QuickPicks.

However, when someone claims that the reason the percentage of self pick (SP) winners is 30% is because the percentage of SP ticket purchases is 30%, you have a problem.

You point to the highest 50 entries in a normal distribution of 4526 Prize Ratios to support your belief that SPs will give you an edge but when it is suggested you need to see a bar chart of a frequency distribution of the whole mess to draw any conclusions, you have another problem.

Your NEED to believe you have control over your fortunes in the lottery is so great that it clouds whatever mathematical and logical insights you possess.

The lotteries are random, and this is a waste of time.

Michigan
United States
Member #22395
September 24, 2005
1583 Posts
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 Posted: April 5, 2011, 6:43 am - IP Logged

Jimboo-boo!!!!!!!

As a member in good standing of the Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Internet Dead Horses I am compelled to ask, "What useful purpose would it serve, other than having someone else do your homework, to have a "Bottom Ten" list?"

Are you exercising some sadist tendency to embarrass someone or cause them hurt feeling for your own gratification? Or do you need fodder to further your agenda? (Well, scratch that. Obviously you do. I mean, there are people still paying lotteries. Not to mention your four prime arguments have begun failing more often.)

But if you must have a Bottom Ten, I want to be NUMBER 1. Over the lifetime I've been here, I'm made 10 predictions and not one has come true. My winning ration is 0%. I deserve to be NUMBER 1!

Jimboo-boo!!!!! Why would YOU need a much better idea of how anyone is doing with their predictions? Are you considering starting a World Series of Lottery Players and need to recruit stars? Maybe you are starting a World Lottery Player Leaderboard. Want help designing your baseball-like trading cards?

Most people here seem to be interested in who is doing well, not who is doing not so good.

Have you really thought about this? Even the slightest? You would have to set up some minimum standards. And the people doing poorly would eventually quit posting, never improving their stats. And if they did, no one would know it.

What about the slights people would get across the board for having an opinion and yet not being a good predictor? So now you have created more dissension and more tension. For what?

Not a good idea at all for a discussion forum. Members are not going to remain members if they are being held up as the ten worst predictors on the entire board. They'll quit predicting.

But hey! Did you notice under Lottery Post Administration? There is a forum for SUGGESTIONS. That might be a good place to make SUGGESTIONS like this. Of course, I'm merely SUGGESTING it.

The prediction board isn't just for fun - there are built-in statistics to show how well each person is doing.  The very core of the board is all business.

"Have you really thought about this? Even the slightest? You would have to set up some minimum standards. And the people doing poorly would eventually quit posting, never improving their stats. And if they did, no one would know it."

Obviously you haven't really thought about this or you wouldn't have made that statement.  Individually everyone can already see how well they are doing.  Can't say who has quit because of it or who hasn't.

If they are doing horrible, perhaps picking numbers isn't their strong suit in life and they should know that, so they can change strategies or quit.

Ever hear of nutrition labels on food?  You know 100 calories per serving/calcium/iron/sodium content, etc;  People still eat the stuff that is "bad" for them.  They don't quit.  People have the right to know, that is why that information appears on foods.  People should know where they stand.  You do that by posting statistics.  The more statistics posted on this site, the better.  The more testing of systems, the better.

If people post a system, it's open to the public and open to testing.  If it is discovered that it is a winner, then the poster did well.  If it is discovered to be junk, the public should know that.  That is the risk one takes by posting on the net.

=======================================

To anyone: QPs are better/same/worse than SPs?

Why isn't there a mathematical proof to answer that?

Dallas, Texas
United States
Member #4549
May 2, 2004
1720 Posts
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 Posted: April 5, 2011, 10:35 am - IP Logged

I didn't say there wasn't anything there.

What I said was, "The mean and standard deviation of the 'Top 50' of a set of 4526 numbers is of no value to the discussion here.  You're wasting your time, and mine.  Besides, it's clear you wouldn't believe(*) any of the inferences that could be drawn from a full analysis anyway.  I think you need a nap."

I've stated my agenda numerous times.

What is yours?

(*) (or recognize)

Jimboo-boo!!!!!!

I didn't enter a rat in that race. I waited for the turtle heat when I knew you would be entered.

The prediction board makes me feel like Tom Selleck in "Quigley Down Under,"

"Didn't say I don't know how to use, just said I never found a use for it."

I entertained your idea, taught you how to do it. If you think there is something there, knock yourself out.

Told you many times, I won't do your homework.

I'll have to work on an agenda, have your people call my people. We can meet at Taco Bell to discuss the details.

I'm thinking it should start out, "My purpose is....." but we'll table that until I check the politicaly correctness.

At the moment truecritic has a question about "I Can't Believe It's Not Butter" which can't wait.

Kentucky
United States
Member #32652
February 14, 2006
7314 Posts
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 Posted: April 5, 2011, 11:19 am - IP Logged

This whole discussion is becoming laughable.

When someone says that 70% of Powerball Jackpots are won with QuickPicks, you and your cohorts are quick to [rightfully] point out that the reason is because 70% of Powerball ticket purchases are QuickPicks.

However, when someone claims that the reason the percentage of self pick (SP) winners is 30% is because the percentage of SP ticket purchases is 30%, you have a problem.

You point to the highest 50 entries in a normal distribution of 4526 Prize Ratios to support your belief that SPs will give you an edge but when it is suggested you need to see a bar chart of a frequency distribution of the whole mess to draw any conclusions, you have another problem.

Your NEED to believe you have control over your fortunes in the lottery is so great that it clouds whatever mathematical and logical insights you possess.

The lotteries are random, and this is a waste of time.

The reason the predictions boards were brought up is because someone claimed nobody on LP has ever used a system to hit a jackpot. We all were in agreement there is no way to determine how a system was used or even if any of the predictors matching 5 numbers in several pick-5 games played those numbers. We just know for a fact they did something other than buying QPs and that something matched all 5 winning numbers.

"Your NEED to believe you have control over your fortunes in the lottery is so great that it clouds whatever mathematical and logical insights you possess."

The majority of players purchasing QPs end up throwing their tickets into the trash, but some do the math and understand they can do no worse by creating a system. I gave a real example of how a system's player benefited from their number distribution in a 5/39 + 1/14 game. Repeatability depends on the method used to select the numbers, but it's obvious some method was used. Can a QP player expect to get just 6 numbers evenly distributed on 5 tickets with just 3 bonus numbers asking a clerk for 5 QPs?

"The lotteries are random, and this is a waste of time."

Spoken by a true QP player while throwing their tickets into the trash.

Nobody said the odds are better by playing a like number of PPs and you agreed they can do no worse.

Jimmy, you're beating a dead horse!

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
19830 Posts
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 Posted: April 5, 2011, 11:59 am - IP Logged

This whole discussion is becoming laughable.

When someone says that 70% of Powerball Jackpots are won with QuickPicks, you and your cohorts are quick to [rightfully] point out that the reason is because 70% of Powerball ticket purchases are QuickPicks.

However, when someone claims that the reason the percentage of self pick (SP) winners is 30% is because the percentage of SP ticket purchases is 30%, you have a problem.

You point to the highest 50 entries in a normal distribution of 4526 Prize Ratios to support your belief that SPs will give you an edge but when it is suggested you need to see a bar chart of a frequency distribution of the whole mess to draw any conclusions, you have another problem.

Your NEED to believe you have control over your fortunes in the lottery is so great that it clouds whatever mathematical and logical insights you possess.

The lotteries are random, and this is a waste of time.

This whole discussion is becoming laughable.

Laughable or entertaining, what the difference as long as everyone is having fun?  It will turn out that there are many methods of picking lottery combinations but picking one that wins a jackpot is not easy and any advantage that one might have over the others is negligible to the average player since the odds of winning are so great.

System players will continue to play combinations picked their special way because it's the only thing they can control besides the amounts they spend.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

Dallas, Texas
United States
Member #4549
May 2, 2004
1720 Posts
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 Posted: April 5, 2011, 12:35 pm - IP Logged

The prediction board isn't just for fun - there are built-in statistics to show how well each person is doing.  The very core of the board is all business.

"Have you really thought about this? Even the slightest? You would have to set up some minimum standards. And the people doing poorly would eventually quit posting, never improving their stats. And if they did, no one would know it."

Obviously you haven't really thought about this or you wouldn't have made that statement.  Individually everyone can already see how well they are doing.  Can't say who has quit because of it or who hasn't.

If they are doing horrible, perhaps picking numbers isn't their strong suit in life and they should know that, so they can change strategies or quit.

Ever hear of nutrition labels on food?  You know 100 calories per serving/calcium/iron/sodium content, etc;  People still eat the stuff that is "bad" for them.  They don't quit.  People have the right to know, that is why that information appears on foods.  People should know where they stand.  You do that by posting statistics.  The more statistics posted on this site, the better.  The more testing of systems, the better.

If people post a system, it's open to the public and open to testing.  If it is discovered that it is a winner, then the poster did well.  If it is discovered to be junk, the public should know that.  That is the risk one takes by posting on the net.

=======================================

To anyone: QPs are better/same/worse than SPs?

Why isn't there a mathematical proof to answer that?

truecritic,

The statement was made by RJOH that the prediction board is 'entertainment, testing, and bragging rights.' I agree. If you equate it to reading the label on, "I Can't Believe It's Not Butter," I have no problem.

If you read a little further you will see that Jimboo-boo requested certain statistical data, not currently available. You'll find I entertained that idea providing an example using the top 50 Highest Lifetime Hit Ratio chart for Cash 5. You'll see that I didn't go further. The variance of trying to establish a confidence level between posters who have 8 predictions and those who have 427,000 is untenable.

Now if you feel there is something be gained in spreadsheeting the entire 4520+ population of the predictions board, have at it. Notice Jimboo-boo won't. He is smart enough to see the same thing, if not wise enough to admit it.

There is an entire spectrum of data and extraneous calculations that could be done with the statistics available. The more you do does not always equate to the more you know. Sometimes it leads to the more you need to do. I did enough to know there is nothing more I need to know. Again, if it doesn't satisfy you, have at it.

I don't study the prediction board. To the 4520+ posters who post there, it serves their purpose. As I stated above, it's not that I don't know how to use it, I just never found a use for it.

My reward is in cashback. I hand the clerk a ticket, the clerk smiles and hands me cash. Beats the total amount of monopoly money on the entire board. Business is better with real cash. Life is better when you don't hand the clerk monopoly money. It makes cops happy too. They don't have to arrest you, book you, and can eat their donuts in peace.

I studyHOW to win, not WHO is winning. I don't attend Prediction Board Addicts Anonymous meetings either. My OCD would rather be outside trimming the stray grass with a pair of elementary school scissors.

I won't do your homework either.

Kentucky
United States
Member #32652
February 14, 2006
7314 Posts
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 Posted: April 5, 2011, 12:57 pm - IP Logged

The prediction board isn't just for fun - there are built-in statistics to show how well each person is doing.  The very core of the board is all business.

"Have you really thought about this? Even the slightest? You would have to set up some minimum standards. And the people doing poorly would eventually quit posting, never improving their stats. And if they did, no one would know it."

Obviously you haven't really thought about this or you wouldn't have made that statement.  Individually everyone can already see how well they are doing.  Can't say who has quit because of it or who hasn't.

If they are doing horrible, perhaps picking numbers isn't their strong suit in life and they should know that, so they can change strategies or quit.

Ever hear of nutrition labels on food?  You know 100 calories per serving/calcium/iron/sodium content, etc;  People still eat the stuff that is "bad" for them.  They don't quit.  People have the right to know, that is why that information appears on foods.  People should know where they stand.  You do that by posting statistics.  The more statistics posted on this site, the better.  The more testing of systems, the better.

If people post a system, it's open to the public and open to testing.  If it is discovered that it is a winner, then the poster did well.  If it is discovered to be junk, the public should know that.  That is the risk one takes by posting on the net.

=======================================

To anyone: QPs are better/same/worse than SPs?

Why isn't there a mathematical proof to answer that?

"Can't say who has quit because of it or who hasn't."

I was surprised to find out I had 261 predictions with a 11.11% prize ratio and 1.53% hit ratio. I can remember why I made 44 Ohio pick-3 predictions and 132 Ohio pick-5 predictions but have no clue on the rest. The pick-3 predictions were made after Thoth and I had discussed that the straight number 023 hadn't hit in over 11,000 drawings. All 44 predictions were 023. The pick-5 predictions were wheels I ran and copied and pasted them to the prediction board. The program doesn't recognize 2 number matches that return \$1 in Ohio so the statistics don't match my actual hits and wins.

I didn't quit because it wasn't fun or felt I would be embarrassed by results; it's something I wasn't interested in doing.

"To anyone: QPs are better/same/worse than SPs?" and "Why isn't there a mathematical proof to answer that?"

The odds charts tell us what to expect so unless one method beats the odds, neither method is worse than the other. We can prove mathematically systems picks are better than a like number of QPs when (and only when) the system preforms as intended. The payoffs we may get playing QPs are dictated by the numbers chosen for us. If 5 QPs produce 25 different numbers, it' impossible to get multiple 3 and 4 number matches.

1. 01-02-03-04-06
2. 01-02-03-05-06
3. 01-02-04-05-06
4. 01-03-04-05-06
5. 02-03-04-05-06

A raw 4 if 4 of 6 number wheel shows what you can expect to win by matching any 4 numbers of your 6 numbers playing a pick-5 game. I'm not saying it's impossible to get a QP with the same distribution, but it's highly unlikely.

I'm not saying system play is better or they can change the odds; I'm saying a system CAN produce better results if it function as intended and it's not expected to do any worse if it doesn't.

Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
United States
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April 28, 2009
14903 Posts
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 Posted: April 5, 2011, 1:34 pm - IP Logged

Here's what would convince me of the superiority of PP's over QP's or vice versa:

If the percentage of wins and jackpots of PP's or QP's exceeded the percentage of sales respectively.

To my feeble eye, if sales are 70/30 and wins are 70/30, neither side shows an advantage.

If sales are 70/30 and wins are 75/25 however, or a comparable equation in the reverse analogy and on a consistent basis, well that would convince me.

I don't pretend to know if those figures are available or if so, even discernible, when you consider the definitive constitution of a QP and who gets to define it.

Seems like an answer to that would make things a little less nebulous though.

For me anyway.

Good luck - however you do it!

"The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

--Edmund Burke

United States
Member #93947
July 10, 2010
2180 Posts
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 Posted: April 5, 2011, 2:04 pm - IP Logged

Here's what would convince me of the superiority of PP's over QP's or vice versa:

If the percentage of wins and jackpots of PP's or QP's exceeded the percentage of sales respectively.

To my feeble eye, if sales are 70/30 and wins are 70/30, neither side shows an advantage.

If sales are 70/30 and wins are 75/25 however, or a comparable equation in the reverse analogy and on a consistent basis, well that would convince me.

I don't pretend to know if those figures are available or if so, even discernible, when you consider the definitive constitution of a QP and who gets to define it.

Seems like an answer to that would make things a little less nebulous though.

For me anyway.

Good luck - however you do it!

R I G H T   O N   Rdgrnr  !!

Unfortunately, it will probably prompt certain people to beat the bushes searching for stats of PPs vs QPs comprehending one state's results for one day in one game.  If they can find them, they'll even point to the results over one hour at one terminal in one gas station as proof that they have an edge.

United States
Member #93947
July 10, 2010
2180 Posts
Offline
 Posted: April 5, 2011, 2:35 pm - IP Logged

The reason the predictions boards were brought up is because someone claimed nobody on LP has ever used a system to hit a jackpot. We all were in agreement there is no way to determine how a system was used or even if any of the predictors matching 5 numbers in several pick-5 games played those numbers. We just know for a fact they did something other than buying QPs and that something matched all 5 winning numbers.

"Your NEED to believe you have control over your fortunes in the lottery is so great that it clouds whatever mathematical and logical insights you possess."

The majority of players purchasing QPs end up throwing their tickets into the trash, but some do the math and understand they can do no worse by creating a system. I gave a real example of how a system's player benefited from their number distribution in a 5/39 + 1/14 game. Repeatability depends on the method used to select the numbers, but it's obvious some method was used. Can a QP player expect to get just 6 numbers evenly distributed on 5 tickets with just 3 bonus numbers asking a clerk for 5 QPs?

"The lotteries are random, and this is a waste of time."

Spoken by a true QP player while throwing their tickets into the trash.

Nobody said the odds are better by playing a like number of PPs and you agreed they can do no worse.

Jimmy, you're beating a dead horse!

Stack47 says,

"Nobody said the odds are better by playing a like number of PPs and you agreed they can do no worse.

Jimmy, you're beating a dead horse!"

Sorry Stack47, their is no dead horse in sight; it's hiding in the bushes.  The claim that has yet to be either proved or retracted is that a certain DDM (Digit Distribution Method) exists that can net the player \$Winnings year over year for 20 years at a rate approximately ELEVEN (11) times that expected by chance!

You and your buddies have been working hard to draw attention away from that issue in this thread by focusing on 70/30 stats, but you surely didn't forget about it, did you?

How could anyone forget such an astonishing claim?

--Jimmy4164

Dallas, Texas
United States
Member #4549
May 2, 2004
1720 Posts
Offline
 Posted: April 5, 2011, 3:16 pm - IP Logged

Stack47 says,

"Nobody said the odds are better by playing a like number of PPs and you agreed they can do no worse.

Jimmy, you're beating a dead horse!"

Sorry Stack47, their is no dead horse in sight; it's hiding in the bushes.  The claim that has yet to be either proved or retracted is that a certain DDM (Digit Distribution Method) exists that can net the player \$Winnings year over year for 20 years at a rate approximately ELEVEN (11) times that expected by chance!

You and your buddies have been working hard to draw attention away from that issue in this thread by focusing on 70/30 stats, but you surely didn't forget about it, did you?

How could anyone forget such an astonishing claim?

--Jimmy4164

Jimboo-boo says,

Nothing new.

Except he forgot the issue is "What is a System?" not "Where is my Dead Horse when I need to get out of the frying pan?"

We can surmise from this, since he forgot where he put his dead horse, he can forget anything.

Morons - 4

Magic Ju-Ju Dead Horse Kicker - -1

Follow Daily Score Updates on LP brought to you by "I Can't Believe It's Not Butter"

Kentucky
United States
Member #32652
February 14, 2006
7314 Posts
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 Posted: April 5, 2011, 4:44 pm - IP Logged

Here's what would convince me of the superiority of PP's over QP's or vice versa:

If the percentage of wins and jackpots of PP's or QP's exceeded the percentage of sales respectively.

To my feeble eye, if sales are 70/30 and wins are 70/30, neither side shows an advantage.

If sales are 70/30 and wins are 75/25 however, or a comparable equation in the reverse analogy and on a consistent basis, well that would convince me.

I don't pretend to know if those figures are available or if so, even discernible, when you consider the definitive constitution of a QP and who gets to define it.

Seems like an answer to that would make things a little less nebulous though.

For me anyway.

Good luck - however you do it!

Rdgrnr,

The Powerball website says "About 70% to 80% of purchases are computer picks. About 70% to 80% of winners are computer picks" and MM is probably the same.

"To my feeble eye, if sales are 70/30 and wins are 70/30, neither side shows an advantage."

Your eyes ain't lying but those figures include every drawing and every type of winnings. MM sales are usually average about \$23 million per drawing until the jackpot reaches \$100 million and then it starts to rise dramatically. In the last jackpot run, \$44 million was wager when the jackpot reached \$151 million, \$49 million at \$172, \$66 at \$201, \$83 at \$244, and \$142,797,806 when the jackpot reached \$312 million.

If the 70/30 ratio was consistent throughout the entire run, it means PPs almost doubled at \$151 and were six times higher on the last drawing. I don't have the figures but it's not unreasonable to believe the ratio of QPs to PPs get wider as the jackpot grows. If it was between 85/15 to 95/5 on the last few drawing when more was wagered, it could be 50/50 when less than \$23 million is wagered.

Guesses, dream numbers, birthdays, events, and etc. are include in PB and MM PPs so a definitive answer of which is superior, "QPs or PPs when the purchases to winnings ratio is about the same", doesn't come close to answering what distinguishes a lottery system from them.

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