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What is a lottery system? What distinguishes a lottery system from guesses, dreams and quick picks?

Topic closed. 918 replies. Last post 6 years ago by mayhem.

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ameriken's avatar - 33ojew2
Denver, Co
United States
Member #103046
December 29, 2010
546 Posts
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Posted: April 3, 2011, 12:46 am - IP Logged

I'd like to see how QP's do against SP's, I wonder if anyone ever posts QP's in the prediction boards?

We've gotta lotta systems players posting their picks in the predictions boards, why not one of you QP players post QP's there?

    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
    Zeta Reticuli Star System
    United States
    Member #30470
    January 17, 2006
    10348 Posts
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    Posted: April 3, 2011, 1:03 am - IP Logged

    ameriken,

    These are from the Pick 5 and Jackpot Games Forums from a while back.

    Little Lotto is thd Illinois Pick 5 game, 5/39, drawn daily.

    Lotto is drawn three times a week.

    PP or SP is Player's Picks or self Picks, QP is Quick Picks.

    Little Lotto

    2010:

    150 Jackpots

    65 PP   43.33%

    131 QP  87.33%

    Solo jackpots: 114   76%

    Shared jackpots: 36  24%

    Highest jackpot:

    $1,125,000 Split five ways on Sep 21, 2010

    Average jackpot: $231,386

    Total jackpot money paid out to date: $34,708,000

    ____________________________________________________

    These are 20008's and 2009's results:

    These were the 2008 results:

    146 Jackpots

    120 QP   82.19%

    91 PS      62.32%

    (includes shared jackpots)

    2008 was a leap year. So in 366 days jackpots were paid out 146 times or every 2.506 days

    82.19% of the jackpot winners were QP

    62.32% were player's selections, or PS

    2009

    365 drawings, 157 jackpots, a hit every 2.32 days.

    To date:

    157 Jackpots

    132 QP   84.07%

    87 PS      55.41%

    Total jackpot money paid out to date: $33,295,000

    Here's the results for 2008, 2009, and combined:

    Two years combined

    731 drawings

    303 Jackpots

    252 QP  83.16%

    178 PS   58.74%

    Including 2010, three years combined:

    1096 drawings (2008 was a leap year)

    453 Jackpots paid

    383 QP  84.54%

    243 PP   53.6%   

    This includes shared jackpots.

    Looking at all three years it is pretty consistent, 146 jackpots, 157 jackpots, 150 jackpots. There is a drawing everyday and a jackpot is hit ever 2.42. days.

    2008

    82.19% QP  58.74% PP

    2009

    84.07% QP   55.41% PP

    2010

    87.33% QP   43.33% PP

    The stats speak for themselves.

    http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/206575/15

    Lotto:

    2010:

    To date:

    11 Jackpots

    7 QP

    4 PP

    Solo jackpots: 11

    Shared jackpots: 0

    Highest jackpot $12,250,000 June 12

    Average jackpot: $5,477,272

    Total jackpot money paid out to date: $60,250,000

    2009

    11 Jackpots

    7 QP   63.6%

    4 PS   36.3%

    2009 and 2010 combined:

    22 Jackpots

    14 QP

    8 PP

    Kind of strange, both years had 11 jackpots, 7 of them QP and 4 of them Player picks.

    _______________________________________________

    As for posting quick picks as predictions, well, they are not really a prediction, are they?

    Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

    Lep

    There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
      United States
      Member #9
      March 24, 2001
      19824 Posts
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      Posted: April 3, 2011, 2:07 am - IP Logged

      I'd like to see how QP's do against SP's, I wonder if anyone ever posts QP's in the prediction boards?

      We've gotta lotta systems players posting their picks in the predictions boards, why not one of you QP players post QP's there?

      Do you really think those posters posting over 8,000 predictions daily did a workout for every one of them?  Chances are many of their predictions came directly from the LP QP generator.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

        United States
        Member #59354
        March 13, 2008
        3964 Posts
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        Posted: April 3, 2011, 8:39 am - IP Logged

        I guess I should have changed the wording to "how many of our guesses that we make before the drwaing

        turn out to be correct"  but I thought that a guess based on information gotten from data we review and

        choose to use could be construed as a prediction.  Yesterday I wourked out a a setup and used all the options

        my software has so I made 34 selections.  I was playing my 6-44 game.  Out of these 34 settings I missed 5

        settings.  5/34 = 14% which could be considered a very bad day even though I guessed  86%  correctly. Of the

        18 filters I missed (1).  I missed (1) group,  I had every digit that hit in play but had the totals for (3) of them

        incorrect.  Digit 3 and 4 were both set to hit 2 or 3 times in each set and they both hit only once.  I had digit 9

        set to hit only once and it hit twice.  Many days I miss 1 or 2 of these settings so that would put me in the 95%

        range, I takes 100% to hit a JP but most days all I need to use is ten or fewer settings to reduce enough to

        fall within my $15.00 budget range and often miss only one setting.   I do this over and over but yet you insist

        that I can't.  I play my system without regard for the odds for the game and track my progress by how well I

        can guess what my settings need to be before the draw.  Notice that I used the word (GUESS) here because 

        it might make it a little easier for you to digest.  However I still consider it a prediction but concede that It

        might just be a guess.  This I think would make me a very good guesser none the less.  I guess I should

        change my LP user name to Sir Guess-alot, hmmmmm. that sounds kind of catchy.  If I could just come up

        with a code of arms to go with it.  This argument is so stale that mold is growing on it,  I think I should start

        a thread called "HE says She says", think there was a movie called by that name.  Anyway I am sure the saga

        will continue, for what reason, I have not a clue. 

        RL

          RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

          United States
          Member #59354
          March 13, 2008
          3964 Posts
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          Posted: April 3, 2011, 9:03 am - IP Logged

          RJOh

          I Agree!

          As a matter of fact I would say that a very large amount of them are nothing more then random groups

          of sets made by people who do it for fun while not spending anything but a little of their time. 

          RL

            RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

            United States
            Member #59354
            March 13, 2008
            3964 Posts
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            Posted: April 3, 2011, 9:21 am - IP Logged

            Hey

            I have a new word "guesdiction" This is a guess that is used as a prediction.  WOW, this could have it's

            own thread.  Another post someone could start,  (Lottery Terms that Defy MATH) 

            RL

              Avatar

              United States
              Member #105312
              January 29, 2011
              435 Posts
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              Posted: April 3, 2011, 9:37 am - IP Logged

              Hey

              I have a new word "guesdiction" This is a guess that is used as a prediction.  WOW, this could have it's

              own thread.  Another post someone could start,  (Lottery Terms that Defy MATH) 

              RL

              RL:  From the outside looking in most of what other people are doing might appear as lottery posts that defy math.  Probably a lot qualify whether they're posting 8000 predictions per day or merely posting a few, or on threads.

              But it might be over-reaching to suggest that because a lot of them aren't using the same logical approaches you've chosen or aren't grounding their work on the same foundations you are grounding yours they won't end up with systems as effective as yours.  Or that theirs don't involve math.

              You appear to have come a long way with what you are doing.  But you haven't come so far as to own all the math approaches to lotteries and there's probably still some room for others to approach it differently and still find their way in the direction they want to go.

                RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                United States
                Member #59354
                March 13, 2008
                3964 Posts
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                Posted: April 3, 2011, 9:57 am - IP Logged

                RL:  From the outside looking in most of what other people are doing might appear as lottery posts that defy math.  Probably a lot qualify whether they're posting 8000 predictions per day or merely posting a few, or on threads.

                But it might be over-reaching to suggest that because a lot of them aren't using the same logical approaches you've chosen or aren't grounding their work on the same foundations you are grounding yours they won't end up with systems as effective as yours.  Or that theirs don't involve math.

                You appear to have come a long way with what you are doing.  But you haven't come so far as to own all the math approaches to lotteries and there's probably still some room for others to approach it differently and still find their way in the direction they want to go.

                Josephus

                My replies were not meant to convey this an any manner,  I not only whish others much success but

                feel that I could learn from anyone here at lp,  even Jimmy.  If I made anyone feel that there efforts

                are in vain or based on some false logic then I sincerely apologize.  I also hope that many have surpassed

                my achievements in this endveaor.  The above statement was just that I think as I believe  RJOh does

                that not all the predictions posted are from  true system play as I would define it.  I did not mean

                that other peoples attempts were nothing more then random sets of numbers but that many do post random

                sets gotten from some RNG which were not arrived at by a developed system.   Again I sincerely apologize

                to everyone that was offended by my statement.  If as I believe that many just run off a set of random numbers

                to post just to see how they would do and then to have someone else come along and use this data to support

                the view that all system play has no merit is unfounded.    I believe that using this information without knowing

                which were post came from developed systems vs randomly picked sets that the analysis would be a misrepresentation

                of what it is intended to prove.

                again I sincerely apologize

                 

                RL

                  mayhem's avatar - 142g5yd
                  Fort Worth, TX
                  United States
                  Member #106060
                  February 11, 2011
                  188 Posts
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                  Posted: April 3, 2011, 11:51 am - IP Logged

                  Isn't the prediction board a waste of time?

                  How you do anything is how you do everything.

                    ameriken's avatar - 33ojew2
                    Denver, Co
                    United States
                    Member #103046
                    December 29, 2010
                    546 Posts
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                    Posted: April 3, 2011, 12:17 pm - IP Logged

                    In what way?

                      Avatar
                      Kentucky
                      United States
                      Member #32652
                      February 14, 2006
                      7302 Posts
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                      Posted: April 3, 2011, 1:19 pm - IP Logged

                      "A contest where two people put their numbers on a post had no value in a topic about purchased QPs versus purchased player picks especially when the results are mathematically predictable".

                         oh yes they do.   it would provide a quick answer TO that debate....and that's why guys like you refuse to partake in it.

                      ever wonder why I ALWAYS run to the challenge,  while "you guys" ALWAYS run away from it?

                      that in and of itself tells the whole story at LP concerning this issue.

                      if you guys had something,  you would knock each over to get in line to be the first to have a crack at that.

                      you know what i hear when the arrogance of the "stacks" stick their nose out -------> crickets

                      it's very simple.....the "last time" that stack is referring to,  he got mouthy with me,  and started talking trash....so i needed to demonstrate he wasn't remotely capable of backing up his bravado.

                      thus my eventual "qualification" methodology,  once you are determined to play in arrogance land.

                      all i needed to do with him is offer up a mano a mano contest.....my QP's vs whatever he can dream up.

                      pre draw

                      once i did that,  he cried to the hills and ran for manufacture excuse on the fly land.

                      the best (excuse) he could come up with?   i had to purchase the QP's in order for them to be valid in the contest.

                      what a crock. 

                      told him i would use LP's RNG,  and he cried about that.   wasn't "random enough" he insisted.

                      poor todd. 

                      told him he could pick any randon generator,  and he made up some lame excuse about that.

                      then,  being the man that i am,  i had enough of his chicken excuses.....i told him i would pay the money for my QP's,   so that he couldn't use the lame excuse they "needed to be purchased in order to be valid", with the caveat that if he lost,  he would reimburse me the money i laid out.......seeing howz he insisted they be "purchased"

                      no problema......if you insist on the purchase,  and your system is "superior",  you should agree to reimbursement 

                      chickened straight away from that one

                      stack is just another faux bravado that capitulates the "i cans",   talks trash to the "no you can'ts",  and when someone calls him on it,  out come some of the lamest excuses in the annals of LP

                      it's simple.....a little contest where i put up QP's pre draw against the bravado of stack,  seeing how stack has once again pretended he was arrogant "enough"

                      easy to do,  takes no time, easily witnessed by all,  and best of all......tain't nuttin like a little head to head that will show once and for all if system picks really can fair better than QP's........(like you people keep claiming they do).

                      anyone that says the QP's in the contest have to be purchased in order to be valid,  are far more desperate than anyone else in here.   that truly is about the lamest thing i have ever heard,  and truth #2,   even the other system players know that's a straight up lie.

                      the LP RNG is more than enough of a man to handle stack's false bravado

                      if you have to lie in hopes of sustaining your position in life.....you have no position to begin with

                      ok stack,  no chance of an LP academy award,  but you are the front runner for pinnochio man of the year.

                      let's hear some more "stack's lame excuse meanderings".

                      (so that i can help you embarass yourself,  seein how you are insistent upon it)

                      "oh yes they do.   it would provide a quick answer TO that debate...."

                      That answer was known once the game was established. Are you telling us the odd of winning the jackpot or any prize are different between a like number of QPs and PPs?

                      I said there is difference in coverage, but that's based on the game odds. A few pages ago I described it in detail and nobody disputed it.

                      "pre draw"

                      Past drawing results and any tests conducted before the drawing are irrelevant when all 56 numbers and all 46 bonus numbers are covered. If you don't know the math behind a 46 combo 56 number 2 if 2 wheel, ask someone else to explain it to you.

                        Avatar

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                        Member #105312
                        January 29, 2011
                        435 Posts
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                        Posted: April 3, 2011, 1:32 pm - IP Logged

                        Josephus

                        My replies were not meant to convey this an any manner,  I not only whish others much success but

                        feel that I could learn from anyone here at lp,  even Jimmy.  If I made anyone feel that there efforts

                        are in vain or based on some false logic then I sincerely apologize.  I also hope that many have surpassed

                        my achievements in this endveaor.  The above statement was just that I think as I believe  RJOh does

                        that not all the predictions posted are from  true system play as I would define it.  I did not mean

                        that other peoples attempts were nothing more then random sets of numbers but that many do post random

                        sets gotten from some RNG which were not arrived at by a developed system.   Again I sincerely apologize

                        to everyone that was offended by my statement.  If as I believe that many just run off a set of random numbers

                        to post just to see how they would do and then to have someone else come along and use this data to support

                        the view that all system play has no merit is unfounded.    I believe that using this information without knowing

                        which were post came from developed systems vs randomly picked sets that the analysis would be a misrepresentation

                        of what it is intended to prove.

                        again I sincerely apologize

                         

                        RL

                        No problem RL.  I mistook your meaning, but I don't get offended by anything I see online.  Impatient sometimes, even frustrated sometimes, but never offended.  Your post was none of these.  I just misunderstood your meaning.

                        The apology is mine.

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                          United States
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                          Posted: April 3, 2011, 1:36 pm - IP Logged

                          Isn't the prediction board a waste of time?

                          When my life flashes before my eyes just before they shut down for the last time I hope a flash of enlightenment will allow me to know what was a waste of time and what wasn't.

                          Meanwhile I don't find the prediction board a waste of time.  Evidently a lot of members also don't.


                            United States
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                            July 10, 2010
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                            Posted: April 3, 2011, 1:59 pm - IP Logged

                            RL:  From the outside looking in most of what other people are doing might appear as lottery posts that defy math.  Probably a lot qualify whether they're posting 8000 predictions per day or merely posting a few, or on threads.

                            But it might be over-reaching to suggest that because a lot of them aren't using the same logical approaches you've chosen or aren't grounding their work on the same foundations you are grounding yours they won't end up with systems as effective as yours.  Or that theirs don't involve math.

                            You appear to have come a long way with what you are doing.  But you haven't come so far as to own all the math approaches to lotteries and there's probably still some room for others to approach it differently and still find their way in the direction they want to go.

                            I'm afraid you are being misled by viewing only the right hand tails of the various prediction distributions at LP.  It is EXPECTED that there will be big winners on a random basis.  It would be SUSPECT if there were NOT!  I just looked, and I can't find any way to see what the AVERAGE predictor accomplished, or what the "Bottom Ten" LOST.

                            I think we would get a much better idea of how people are doing with their predictions here if we had a view showing the means AND standard deviations of the Prize Ratios, preferably accompanied by bar charts of the distributions.

                            If this information is available here and I've missed it, please point me to it.

                              RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                              United States
                              Member #59354
                              March 13, 2008
                              3964 Posts
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                              Posted: April 3, 2011, 2:00 pm - IP Logged

                              There will never be a way to test QP's against SP's because the data can't be attained.  The QP's show a

                              even ratio to SP's when looking at ticket sales but this means ltttle.   SP's are two quite different types

                              of tickets.  The first is playing birthdays, childs age, tick tact doo ect....  The second is the developed system

                              play.  One must know the ratios of sales vs JP's and other prizes won.  Without this anything is just a

                              guess no matter what hi-tech statical tools one uses.  A ratio of DSP prizes won to DSP sales is the only way

                              to calculate it.  If 70% of ticket sales are QP's then I would expect 70% of JP's to be QP's.  The same applies to

                              SP's if you don't sort out the difference between the two types.  What if only 30% of the SP's were DSP and

                              accounted for 70% of the SP jackpots.  This is something we will never know but does show us what is needed

                              to solve the issue.  Some may argue that the percent of sales will determind the ratio and this seems to be

                              the case but until all the data is considered then we will never know.  If QP and SP both show a ratio of 1 to 1

                              based on the percent of sales +/- some small deviation from time to time I suppect that until someone produces

                              a system that wins many jackpots within a very short time frame then it would not show up in the overall. Even a

                              system that hit 2 or 3 JP's a year would not tilt the game out of place playing 20 lines or less per play unless several

                              people were using it on the same game.

                              RL   

                                 
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