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Mathematics and the Lottery

646 replies. Last post 23 days ago by SEA-Pick3.

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Can a winning lottery system be created with existing math formulas?

Yes-It's all in the math books. [ 228 ]  [43.02%]
No-Anew math for will have to be created. [ 78 ]  [14.72%]
Math won't beat the lottery regularly. [ 224 ]  [42.26%]
Total Valid Votes [ 530 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 54 ]  

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CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
ORLANDO, FLORIDA
United States
Member #4924
June 3, 2004
5896 Posts
Offline
Posted: August 20, 2011, 6:23 am - IP Logged

(You mentioned Bayes in your earlier post.)

"I was referring to the term random variable. When you and the other posters write about random, I get the impression there are no variables in random. Am I not reading this right?"

Saying "in random" implies you have a perception of the definition of "random" that is not consistent with that of mathematicians.  "Random" is an adjective in this context.  Nothing can be "in" random.  If you look up definitions of "random" and "variable" and look again at stattrek's definitions of "discrete" and "continuous," I think you will find that, "When the numerical value of a variable is determined by a chance event, that variable is called a random variable." is a pretty good definition!

To get you started:

A "variable" in math is a value that changes (or can change) within a specified range, as opposed to a "constant," which is invariant.

y = 2 * x + 4.7   ( x > 0 )

... defines two variables, x and y, and one constant, 4.7.

x is an independent variable with an infinite range greater than zero.

y is a dependent variable, dependent upon the value of x.

Thanks for the explanation.

    Avatar
    Kentucky
    United States
    Member #32652
    February 14, 2006
    7302 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: August 20, 2011, 5:34 pm - IP Logged

    Hi Stack47,

       Let me give you a different point of view. There is nothing false about past drawing results. They are what they are and must be delt with accordingly.

       Secondly, if someone decides to ignore a 49.52% stat, then, where is the problem. The person with hunches or the math?

       Best of Luck

    I was looking for a 6/49 game 50/50 stat because coin flips were being discussed, but even if we used math or guessed correctly and eliminated those 6 "cold" numbers, we still have over 7 million combos left. Any 6 six numbers including the numbers from the previous drawing have the same affect. A commonly used combo filter is 0 to 1 of the previous drawing and probably a better way to use 6 "cold" numbers.

    Some of system books suggest eliminating many numbers and use the keepers in full or abbreviated wheels and others suggest using all the numbers and filter out low percentage combos IE high/low, even/odd distribution, consecutive, last digit, decades, etc. It depends on how a 6/49 game is viewed because while it's a random drawing and each number has an equal chance of being drawn, it's still a fact 43 numbers won't be drawn.

      Avatar
      bgonçalves
      Brasil
      Member #92564
      June 9, 2010
      2122 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: August 20, 2011, 6:52 pm - IP Logged

      Hello, the numbers do not have memory, but often hold positions of certain output   CAD output result, the results are the problem, the solution should be within the same problem! Much of mathematics and other aletoria together! example   Game 49 / 6 result 12,13,24,32,44,47 Mathematics = 12,13,44,47 Random = 24.32   Not necessarily in order of numbers

        RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

        United States
        Member #59354
        March 13, 2008
        3964 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: August 21, 2011, 10:43 am - IP Logged

        JKING

        Do you consider the information based entirely on the past results or do you look also to the matrix?

        My way of thinking is this, Lets say a certain filter has 5 values of which one will hit in the next draw.

        Looking at the past history one can see that a certain value has hit in 30% of the past draws and 

        it is also found in to occure in 30% of the lines in the matrix.  I don't think that the next draw can be

        predicted with any certainty but if one chooses what they play based on the probabilities of both the

        history and the matrix them I would expect some success.  The 50/50 coin toss is and always will be

        50/50 no matter how many flips it it tossed.   Lets say again that heads has come up 10 times in a

        row.  Some would bet tails because it is due while others would bet heads because it is hot and the

        one who guessed correctly would feel they predicted the outcome even though the next flip is pure

        chance unless the flip is biased.  The lottery is quite different because it is taking a randomly selected

        sample.   The more random the sample the better the set drawn will follow the matrix in proportion.

        All the numbers have a equal chance of being drawn but when looking at the sets one can begin to see

        the balance.   A number can go hot or cold without effecting the proportion /distrribution of the matrix.

        I have around 100 filters that are used just to gauge a draw and I am suprised many days at how few

        repeat from day to day.  Each of these filters can be checked against the matrix and found to fall within

        there expected range of values hit.  Take a look at the data below.  There are 10 columbs of digits which

        repersent the ten digits 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-0.  They are broken into three groups F-4 = digits 1-2-3-4.

        M-3 = digits 5-6-7 and B-3 = digits 8-9-0.  A zero indicates a no-show and a one equals a hit.  The top

        row shows that digits 2-5-7-8 made up the set drawn.   Numbers =  08/20/11   05 07 25 27 28.  Pay

        attention to the M-3 and B-3 strings.  A 3 digit binary string has 8 different values from 000 to 111 and

        the right columbs show the binary value for each of the three groupings.   

           

        ##  F-4             M-3        B-3         Binary values

        Dig  1  2  3  4    5  6  7    8  9  0

        01   0  1  0  0    1  0  1    1  0  0    F=04   M=5   B=4
        02   1  0  1  0    1  0  0    1  0  1    F=10   M=4   B=5
        03   1  1  1  0    1  0  1    0  1  0    F=14   M=5   B=2
        04   0  1  1  1    1  1  0    0  1  0    F=07   M=6   B=2
        05   1  1  1  1    1  1  0    1  0  0    F=15   M=6   B=4
        06   1  1  0  1    0  1  1    1  0  1    F=13   M=3   B=5
        07   1  1  1  1    1  0  0    0  1  1    F=15   M=4   B=3
        08   1  0  1  0    1  0  1    0  0  0    F=10   M=5   B=0
        09   1  1  0  0    0  1  0    1  0  1    F=12   M=2   B=5
        10   1  1  1  0    0  0  1    1  1  1    F=14   M=1   B=7
        11   1  1  1  0    1  0  0    0  1  1    F=14   M=4   B=3
        12   1  1  1  1    0  0  0    0  0  1    F=15   M=0   B=1
        13   1  1  1  0    0  0  0    1  1  0    F=14   M=0   B=6

        in the last 13 draws 7 of the 8  binary patterns were drawn for M-3 and all 8 hit in B-3.  F-4 holds

        the decade digits which are digits 1-2-3 for a 5-39 and if I separate or remove the decades than

        they also follow M-3 and B-3 results.   There seems to be no pattern to the order but what I find

        useful is that how they run the gantlet so to speak within a very short span.  One of the guys sent

        me a pic this morning of a setup that was done after the fact which I encourage people to do to 

        learn the most effective setups.  As you know I am a digit man but I think that this shows some of

        the logic behind my choices.  Timing the play is maybe the most important factor to system play.

         

        dm-pro setup

        RL

        Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

        I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

        they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

        USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

          US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

          RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

          United States
          Member #59354
          March 13, 2008
          3964 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: August 21, 2011, 10:50 am - IP Logged

          JKING

          Do you consider the information based entirely on the past results or do you look also to the matrix?

          My way of thinking is this, Lets say a certain filter has 5 values of which one will hit in the next draw.

          Looking at the past history one can see that a certain value has hit in 30% of the past draws and 

          it is also found in to occure in 30% of the lines in the matrix.  I don't think that the next draw can be

          predicted with any certainty but if one chooses what they play based on the probabilities of both the

          history and the matrix them I would expect some success.  The 50/50 coin toss is and always will be

          50/50 no matter how many flips it it tossed.   Lets say again that heads has come up 10 times in a

          row.  Some would bet tails because it is due while others would bet heads because it is hot and the

          one who guessed correctly would feel they predicted the outcome even though the next flip is pure

          chance unless the flip is biased.  The lottery is quite different because it is taking a randomly selected

          sample.   The more random the sample the better the set drawn will follow the matrix in proportion.

          All the numbers have a equal chance of being drawn but when looking at the sets one can begin to see

          the balance.   A number can go hot or cold without effecting the proportion /distrribution of the matrix.

          I have around 100 filters that are used just to gauge a draw and I am suprised many days at how few

          repeat from day to day.  Each of these filters can be checked against the matrix and found to fall within

          there expected range of values hit.  Take a look at the data below.  There are 10 columbs of digits which

          repersent the ten digits 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-0.  They are broken into three groups F-4 = digits 1-2-3-4.

          M-3 = digits 5-6-7 and B-3 = digits 8-9-0.  A zero indicates a no-show and a one equals a hit.  The top

          row shows that digits 2-5-7-8 made up the set drawn.   Numbers =  08/20/11   05 07 25 27 28.  Pay

          attention to the M-3 and B-3 strings.  A 3 digit binary string has 8 different values from 000 to 111 and

          the right columbs show the binary value for each of the three groupings.   

             

          ##  F-4             M-3        B-3         Binary values

          Dig  1  2  3  4    5  6  7    8  9  0

          01   0  1  0  0    1  0  1    1  0  0    F=04   M=5   B=4
          02   1  0  1  0    1  0  0    1  0  1    F=10   M=4   B=5
          03   1  1  1  0    1  0  1    0  1  0    F=14   M=5   B=2
          04   0  1  1  1    1  1  0    0  1  0    F=07   M=6   B=2
          05   1  1  1  1    1  1  0    1  0  0    F=15   M=6   B=4
          06   1  1  0  1    0  1  1    1  0  1    F=13   M=3   B=5
          07   1  1  1  1    1  0  0    0  1  1    F=15   M=4   B=3
          08   1  0  1  0    1  0  1    0  0  0    F=10   M=5   B=0
          09   1  1  0  0    0  1  0    1  0  1    F=12   M=2   B=5
          10   1  1  1  0    0  0  1    1  1  1    F=14   M=1   B=7
          11   1  1  1  0    1  0  0    0  1  1    F=14   M=4   B=3
          12   1  1  1  1    0  0  0    0  0  1    F=15   M=0   B=1
          13   1  1  1  0    0  0  0    1  1  0    F=14   M=0   B=6

          in the last 13 draws 7 of the 8  binary patterns were drawn for M-3 and all 8 hit in B-3.  F-4 holds

          the decade digits which are digits 1-2-3 for a 5-39 and if I separate or remove the decades than

          they also follow M-3 and B-3 results.   There seems to be no pattern to the order but what I find

          useful is that how they run the gantlet so to speak within a very short span.  One of the guys sent

          me a pic this morning of a setup that was done after the fact which I encourage people to do to 

          learn the most effective setups.  As you know I am a digit man but I think that this shows some of

          the logic behind my choices.  Timing the play is maybe the most important factor to system play.

           

          dm-pro setup

          RL

          I forgot to add that the primary run produced 72 sets which are in the temp folder and a second

          pass was made using the cover option which reduced to 16 lines.

          RL

          Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

          I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

          they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

          USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

            US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

            Avatar
            bgonçalves
            Brasil
            Member #92564
            June 9, 2010
            2122 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: August 21, 2011, 11:39 am - IP Logged

            Hello, rl RANDONIC, Fantastico, on the table headings   Rl-randonic, the comparison on the launch of the currency, the crown face   The problem is that the single currency and lanchamento (one currency only) such as the lottery 49 / 6   We have six events (six pairings of two-digit numbers with each number), then   A conbinaçao release (6) in a single event, while the currency has only one, Aexemplo currency only serves to make each digit and also the analysis of the vertical column   Separate the digit number and the termination of frentedo vertically this point we have to understand the difference, many combined events (draw) and currency

              JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

              United States
              Member #5599
              July 13, 2004
              1184 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: August 21, 2011, 7:03 pm - IP Logged

              JKING

              Do you consider the information based entirely on the past results or do you look also to the matrix?

              My way of thinking is this, Lets say a certain filter has 5 values of which one will hit in the next draw.

              Looking at the past history one can see that a certain value has hit in 30% of the past draws and 

              it is also found in to occure in 30% of the lines in the matrix.  I don't think that the next draw can be

              predicted with any certainty but if one chooses what they play based on the probabilities of both the

              history and the matrix them I would expect some success.  The 50/50 coin toss is and always will be

              50/50 no matter how many flips it it tossed.   Lets say again that heads has come up 10 times in a

              row.  Some would bet tails because it is due while others would bet heads because it is hot and the

              one who guessed correctly would feel they predicted the outcome even though the next flip is pure

              chance unless the flip is biased.  The lottery is quite different because it is taking a randomly selected

              sample.   The more random the sample the better the set drawn will follow the matrix in proportion.

              All the numbers have a equal chance of being drawn but when looking at the sets one can begin to see

              the balance.   A number can go hot or cold without effecting the proportion /distrribution of the matrix.

              I have around 100 filters that are used just to gauge a draw and I am suprised many days at how few

              repeat from day to day.  Each of these filters can be checked against the matrix and found to fall within

              there expected range of values hit.  Take a look at the data below.  There are 10 columbs of digits which

              repersent the ten digits 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-0.  They are broken into three groups F-4 = digits 1-2-3-4.

              M-3 = digits 5-6-7 and B-3 = digits 8-9-0.  A zero indicates a no-show and a one equals a hit.  The top

              row shows that digits 2-5-7-8 made up the set drawn.   Numbers =  08/20/11   05 07 25 27 28.  Pay

              attention to the M-3 and B-3 strings.  A 3 digit binary string has 8 different values from 000 to 111 and

              the right columbs show the binary value for each of the three groupings.   

                 

              ##  F-4             M-3        B-3         Binary values

              Dig  1  2  3  4    5  6  7    8  9  0

              01   0  1  0  0    1  0  1    1  0  0    F=04   M=5   B=4
              02   1  0  1  0    1  0  0    1  0  1    F=10   M=4   B=5
              03   1  1  1  0    1  0  1    0  1  0    F=14   M=5   B=2
              04   0  1  1  1    1  1  0    0  1  0    F=07   M=6   B=2
              05   1  1  1  1    1  1  0    1  0  0    F=15   M=6   B=4
              06   1  1  0  1    0  1  1    1  0  1    F=13   M=3   B=5
              07   1  1  1  1    1  0  0    0  1  1    F=15   M=4   B=3
              08   1  0  1  0    1  0  1    0  0  0    F=10   M=5   B=0
              09   1  1  0  0    0  1  0    1  0  1    F=12   M=2   B=5
              10   1  1  1  0    0  0  1    1  1  1    F=14   M=1   B=7
              11   1  1  1  0    1  0  0    0  1  1    F=14   M=4   B=3
              12   1  1  1  1    0  0  0    0  0  1    F=15   M=0   B=1
              13   1  1  1  0    0  0  0    1  1  0    F=14   M=0   B=6

              in the last 13 draws 7 of the 8  binary patterns were drawn for M-3 and all 8 hit in B-3.  F-4 holds

              the decade digits which are digits 1-2-3 for a 5-39 and if I separate or remove the decades than

              they also follow M-3 and B-3 results.   There seems to be no pattern to the order but what I find

              useful is that how they run the gantlet so to speak within a very short span.  One of the guys sent

              me a pic this morning of a setup that was done after the fact which I encourage people to do to 

              learn the most effective setups.  As you know I am a digit man but I think that this shows some of

              the logic behind my choices.  Timing the play is maybe the most important factor to system play.

               

              dm-pro setup

              RL

               Hi RL,

                 I looked at some of what you where doing from one of your earlier posts, that explained whay you where doing with digits. I fould that combining the first and second digits confusing for me. So I have gone with the last digit distribution, Unique digits, and hi/low digits......

               

               Last Digit Distribution

              last digit   (0)  (1)  (2)  (3)  (4)   (5)  (6)  (7)  (8)  (9)
              TOTAL = 205 232 227 252 235 229 232 242 243 237

                From the standpoint of how I approach it.

                   I need to have no less than 3 unique digits(UD) and no more than 4 in the hi or low postion.

                   The boundry conditions postionally:

                    1.....0-6

                    2.....0-7

                    3.....1-8

                    4.....2-9

                    5.....4-9

               

                 A                 LAST DIGITS (POSITIONAL)                       A

                 M U               L                                                   0-4    5-9   M

                 T  D               D   1   2   3   4   5   

                 1  0

                 2  1               1   163 95   9   0   0         

                 3   65            2   84   125 53   9   0         

                 4   263          3   53   121 91   26   1     

                 5   217          4   23   84   93   64   5     

                                      5   9   50   102 77   23   

                                      6   9   30   98   87   49

                                     7   0   15   68   126 84

                                      8   0   3   29   115 147

                                      9   0   0   2   42   237

              I start with 100% coverage then simply eliminate only the lowest percentages on subsequent passes on all combinations. That is the foundation of what I do. Even when I do have to bit the bullet to eliminate more combinations it is done again by eliminating the next tier of the lowest percentages. The plan is to add more 100% filters and get even more combination reductions.

                Yes, I'll set up matricies, but the data and percentages have to be overwhelming for me to use them. No second guessing.

                Even though our approach is different, please stay with what you are doing and thanks for posting them. Understading the diversity of different approaches from everbody at the LP is going to be key if anyone of us to find the best system. *S*

              You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

              Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

                Avatar
                Kentucky
                United States
                Member #32652
                February 14, 2006
                7302 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: August 22, 2011, 3:22 pm - IP Logged

                JKING

                Do you consider the information based entirely on the past results or do you look also to the matrix?

                My way of thinking is this, Lets say a certain filter has 5 values of which one will hit in the next draw.

                Looking at the past history one can see that a certain value has hit in 30% of the past draws and 

                it is also found in to occure in 30% of the lines in the matrix.  I don't think that the next draw can be

                predicted with any certainty but if one chooses what they play based on the probabilities of both the

                history and the matrix them I would expect some success.  The 50/50 coin toss is and always will be

                50/50 no matter how many flips it it tossed.   Lets say again that heads has come up 10 times in a

                row.  Some would bet tails because it is due while others would bet heads because it is hot and the

                one who guessed correctly would feel they predicted the outcome even though the next flip is pure

                chance unless the flip is biased.  The lottery is quite different because it is taking a randomly selected

                sample.   The more random the sample the better the set drawn will follow the matrix in proportion.

                All the numbers have a equal chance of being drawn but when looking at the sets one can begin to see

                the balance.   A number can go hot or cold without effecting the proportion /distrribution of the matrix.

                I have around 100 filters that are used just to gauge a draw and I am suprised many days at how few

                repeat from day to day.  Each of these filters can be checked against the matrix and found to fall within

                there expected range of values hit.  Take a look at the data below.  There are 10 columbs of digits which

                repersent the ten digits 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-0.  They are broken into three groups F-4 = digits 1-2-3-4.

                M-3 = digits 5-6-7 and B-3 = digits 8-9-0.  A zero indicates a no-show and a one equals a hit.  The top

                row shows that digits 2-5-7-8 made up the set drawn.   Numbers =  08/20/11   05 07 25 27 28.  Pay

                attention to the M-3 and B-3 strings.  A 3 digit binary string has 8 different values from 000 to 111 and

                the right columbs show the binary value for each of the three groupings.   

                   

                ##  F-4             M-3        B-3         Binary values

                Dig  1  2  3  4    5  6  7    8  9  0

                01   0  1  0  0    1  0  1    1  0  0    F=04   M=5   B=4
                02   1  0  1  0    1  0  0    1  0  1    F=10   M=4   B=5
                03   1  1  1  0    1  0  1    0  1  0    F=14   M=5   B=2
                04   0  1  1  1    1  1  0    0  1  0    F=07   M=6   B=2
                05   1  1  1  1    1  1  0    1  0  0    F=15   M=6   B=4
                06   1  1  0  1    0  1  1    1  0  1    F=13   M=3   B=5
                07   1  1  1  1    1  0  0    0  1  1    F=15   M=4   B=3
                08   1  0  1  0    1  0  1    0  0  0    F=10   M=5   B=0
                09   1  1  0  0    0  1  0    1  0  1    F=12   M=2   B=5
                10   1  1  1  0    0  0  1    1  1  1    F=14   M=1   B=7
                11   1  1  1  0    1  0  0    0  1  1    F=14   M=4   B=3
                12   1  1  1  1    0  0  0    0  0  1    F=15   M=0   B=1
                13   1  1  1  0    0  0  0    1  1  0    F=14   M=0   B=6

                in the last 13 draws 7 of the 8  binary patterns were drawn for M-3 and all 8 hit in B-3.  F-4 holds

                the decade digits which are digits 1-2-3 for a 5-39 and if I separate or remove the decades than

                they also follow M-3 and B-3 results.   There seems to be no pattern to the order but what I find

                useful is that how they run the gantlet so to speak within a very short span.  One of the guys sent

                me a pic this morning of a setup that was done after the fact which I encourage people to do to 

                learn the most effective setups.  As you know I am a digit man but I think that this shows some of

                the logic behind my choices.  Timing the play is maybe the most important factor to system play.

                 

                dm-pro setup

                RL

                "Lets say again that heads has come up 10 times in a row.  Some would bet tails because it is due while others would bet heads because it is hot and the one who guessed correctly would feel they predicted the outcome even though the next flip is pure chance unless the flip is biased."

                A simple formula like A + B = C has no meaning unless we know the value of either A, B, or C. If A = 1 we know if B = 2, than C must = 3 and if C = 4, B must = 3. Before the next three coin flips, we know the outcome will be 3 heads, 0 tails, 2 heads, 1 tails, 1 head, 2 tail, 0 heads, or 3 tails. With no other information we have a 1 in 8 chance of guessing correctly. If the last three results were 3 heads and we know each side has a 50/50 chance of happening, shouldn't we logically assume one of the next three flips will be tails and eliminate 2 of the 8 chances (3 heads and 0 tails) and now have a 1 in 6 chance?

                These pro and con coin flip analogies are very problematic because you're saying each side had a 50/50 chance by giving an example showing one side had a zero chance in ten flips. In your example you gave reasons why each player made their choice and both were educated guesses made from known information. With no information they could flip another coin to determine which side to choose but that wouldn't be an educated guess.  We can use math to determine the probably of streaks of three or more consecutive events occurring when the odds are 50/50 or we can look at past results and find a similar number. But either way, we still need the results of at least one outcome before we can make our bet.

                Lotteries don't pay even money on 50/50 propositions so that makes the coin flipping analogy even worse. If you give a lottery clerk $250 betting the first digit in the pick-3 game will be even and win, you'll get your $250 back and win nothing. Break even or lose is not a sound bet. In pick-4 games there is a 43.2% chance of the winning number having just two matching digits and we can get a 11.1% profit, but the edge is still 8.8%.

                "The lottery is quite different because it is taking a randomly selected sample."

                The results are randomly selected samples but after more than half the numbers are drawn the odds favor numbers repeating. If you pick 750 numbers and I pick 250 in any pick-3 game, the odds are 3 to 1 in your favor regardless of what the randomly selected sample shows.

                  JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

                  United States
                  Member #5599
                  July 13, 2004
                  1184 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: August 22, 2011, 5:17 pm - IP Logged

                  "Lets say again that heads has come up 10 times in a row.  Some would bet tails because it is due while others would bet heads because it is hot and the one who guessed correctly would feel they predicted the outcome even though the next flip is pure chance unless the flip is biased."

                  A simple formula like A + B = C has no meaning unless we know the value of either A, B, or C. If A = 1 we know if B = 2, than C must = 3 and if C = 4, B must = 3. Before the next three coin flips, we know the outcome will be 3 heads, 0 tails, 2 heads, 1 tails, 1 head, 2 tail, 0 heads, or 3 tails. With no other information we have a 1 in 8 chance of guessing correctly. If the last three results were 3 heads and we know each side has a 50/50 chance of happening, shouldn't we logically assume one of the next three flips will be tails and eliminate 2 of the 8 chances (3 heads and 0 tails) and now have a 1 in 6 chance?

                  These pro and con coin flip analogies are very problematic because you're saying each side had a 50/50 chance by giving an example showing one side had a zero chance in ten flips. In your example you gave reasons why each player made their choice and both were educated guesses made from known information. With no information they could flip another coin to determine which side to choose but that wouldn't be an educated guess.  We can use math to determine the probably of streaks of three or more consecutive events occurring when the odds are 50/50 or we can look at past results and find a similar number. But either way, we still need the results of at least one outcome before we can make our bet.

                  Lotteries don't pay even money on 50/50 propositions so that makes the coin flipping analogy even worse. If you give a lottery clerk $250 betting the first digit in the pick-3 game will be even and win, you'll get your $250 back and win nothing. Break even or lose is not a sound bet. In pick-4 games there is a 43.2% chance of the winning number having just two matching digits and we can get a 11.1% profit, but the edge is still 8.8%.

                  "The lottery is quite different because it is taking a randomly selected sample."

                  The results are randomly selected samples but after more than half the numbers are drawn the odds favor numbers repeating. If you pick 750 numbers and I pick 250 in any pick-3 game, the odds are 3 to 1 in your favor regardless of what the randomly selected sample shows.

                  Hi Stack47,

                    I feel my postion and approach is clear enough that it needs no further explination. I feel no need to convince you or convert you to my way of thinking. Whatever mathematical view or approach you take is fine with me and will be respected. I hope it works for you. *S*

                    Since I don't play the pick 3/4 games, your guess is probably better than mine in that arena.

                  You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

                  Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

                    Avatar
                    bgonçalves
                    Brasil
                    Member #92564
                    June 9, 2010
                    2122 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: August 25, 2011, 3:55 pm - IP Logged
                    Hello, jking, as this going the theory? Just use this theory. 70% of cold numbers and 30% of hot that more leave, example = you take of a lottery 1/39, separates
                    The numbers that come out of the 30% 01 39, clear the remaining 70% are cold
                    Of these 30% separate them 30% of the numbers to mount your bet, the others are at 70% cold, the base or reference is escolher30% of 30% taken from 01 to 39 seems to work! Then separate 13 or 14 numbers that more leave 30% of the numbers 4, 14 = 2 choices of 5 to 14 of the 25 remaining numbers but each choice 4 or 5, and mount a game with 10 numbers and unfold with wheels or filters,
                    Now to choose 30% of 30% that is the question, filters! And choose 4 to 5 of 70%
                    Filters!!
                      JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

                      United States
                      Member #5599
                      July 13, 2004
                      1184 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: August 26, 2011, 12:33 am - IP Logged
                      Hello, jking, as this going the theory? Just use this theory. 70% of cold numbers and 30% of hot that more leave, example = you take of a lottery 1/39, separates
                      The numbers that come out of the 30% 01 39, clear the remaining 70% are cold
                      Of these 30% separate them 30% of the numbers to mount your bet, the others are at 70% cold, the base or reference is escolher30% of 30% taken from 01 to 39 seems to work! Then separate 13 or 14 numbers that more leave 30% of the numbers 4, 14 = 2 choices of 5 to 14 of the 25 remaining numbers but each choice 4 or 5, and mount a game with 10 numbers and unfold with wheels or filters,
                      Now to choose 30% of 30% that is the question, filters! And choose 4 to 5 of 70%
                      Filters!!

                      Hi dr san,

                        Let me give you a different look of what I think you are saying:

                      % of Top

                      Amount of

                      The Amount of Historical Hits

                      Occurring

                      Numbers

                      Last 550 games (8/24/20110) CA Fantasy 5

                       

                      Payoff %

                      Num. by %

                      that fit %

                      0

                      1

                      2

                      3

                      4

                      5

                       

                      3 or more

                       

                      Jackpot %

                      5

                      2

                      377

                      162

                      11

                      0

                      0

                      0

                       

                      0.00

                       

                      0.00

                      10

                      3

                      313

                      206

                      29

                      2

                      0

                      0

                       

                      0.36

                       

                      0.00

                      15

                      4

                      264

                      226

                      53

                      7

                      0

                      0

                       

                      1.27

                       

                      0.00

                      20

                      10

                      80

                      201

                      196

                      64

                      9

                      0

                       

                      13.27

                       

                      0.00

                      25

                      21

                      7

                      40

                      137

                      193

                      139

                      34

                       

                      66.55

                       

                      6.18

                      30

                      28

                      0

                      5

                      44

                      132

                      239

                      130

                       

                      91.09

                       

                      23.64

                      35

                      34

                      0

                      0

                      3

                      36

                      193

                      318

                       

                      99.45

                       

                      57.82

                      40

                      36

                      0

                      0

                      0

                      12

                      128

                      410

                       

                      100.00

                       

                      74.55

                      45

                      37

                      0

                      0

                      0

                      3

                      91

                      456

                       

                      100.00

                       

                      82.91

                      50

                      39

                      0

                      0

                      0

                      0

                      0

                      550

                       

                      100.00

                       

                      100.00

                      .

                      % of Top

                      To achieve a payoff

                      Occurring

                      3 or more (approx.)

                      Num. by %

                      hot

                      cold

                      25

                      3

                      2

                      30

                      4

                      1

                      35

                      5

                      0

                      40

                      5

                      0

                      45

                      5

                      0

                      50

                      5

                      0

                      .

                      % of Top

                      To achieve a jackpot

                      Occurring

                      All Numbers (approx.)

                      Num. by %

                      hot

                      cold

                      25

                      0

                      5

                      30

                      1

                      4

                      35

                      3

                      2

                      40

                      3

                      2

                      45

                      4

                      1

                      50

                      5

                      0

                      You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

                      Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

                        JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

                        United States
                        Member #5599
                        July 13, 2004
                        1184 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: August 26, 2011, 12:55 am - IP Logged

                        Hi dr san,

                          Let me give you a different look of what I think you are saying:

                        % of Top

                        Amount of

                        The Amount of Historical Hits

                        Occurring

                        Numbers

                        Last 550 games (8/24/20110) CA Fantasy 5

                         

                        Payoff %

                        Num. by %

                        that fit %

                        0

                        1

                        2

                        3

                        4

                        5

                         

                        3 or more

                         

                        Jackpot %

                        5

                        2

                        377

                        162

                        11

                        0

                        0

                        0

                         

                        0.00

                         

                        0.00

                        10

                        3

                        313

                        206

                        29

                        2

                        0

                        0

                         

                        0.36

                         

                        0.00

                        15

                        4

                        264

                        226

                        53

                        7

                        0

                        0

                         

                        1.27

                         

                        0.00

                        20

                        10

                        80

                        201

                        196

                        64

                        9

                        0

                         

                        13.27

                         

                        0.00

                        25

                        21

                        7

                        40

                        137

                        193

                        139

                        34

                         

                        66.55

                         

                        6.18

                        30

                        28

                        0

                        5

                        44

                        132

                        239

                        130

                         

                        91.09

                         

                        23.64

                        35

                        34

                        0

                        0

                        3

                        36

                        193

                        318

                         

                        99.45

                         

                        57.82

                        40

                        36

                        0

                        0

                        0

                        12

                        128

                        410

                         

                        100.00

                         

                        74.55

                        45

                        37

                        0

                        0

                        0

                        3

                        91

                        456

                         

                        100.00

                         

                        82.91

                        50

                        39

                        0

                        0

                        0

                        0

                        0

                        550

                         

                        100.00

                         

                        100.00

                        .

                        % of Top

                        To achieve a payoff

                        Occurring

                        3 or more (approx.)

                        Num. by %

                        hot

                        cold

                        25

                        3

                        2

                        30

                        4

                        1

                        35

                        5

                        0

                        40

                        5

                        0

                        45

                        5

                        0

                        50

                        5

                        0

                        .

                        % of Top

                        To achieve a jackpot

                        Occurring

                        All Numbers (approx.)

                        Num. by %

                        hot

                        cold

                        25

                        0

                        5

                        30

                        1

                        4

                        35

                        3

                        2

                        40

                        3

                        2

                        45

                        4

                        1

                        50

                        5

                        0

                        Hi,

                         As a follow up to the above post...

                         The amount of hot/cold numbers used should vary by the rating used in column #1. The wonderful thing about using history data is that it lets you know the level of certainty of what your idea is.

                         Again, thanks dr san. Even though we are on different paths for solving the lottery, your comments make me take a fresh/new/different look at how numbers can be analyzed.

                        You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

                        Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

                          JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

                          United States
                          Member #5599
                          July 13, 2004
                          1184 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: August 26, 2011, 2:12 am - IP Logged

                          % of Top

                          Amount of

                          The Amount of Historical Hits

                          Occurring

                          Numbers

                          Last 550 games (8/24/2011) CA Fantasy 5

                           

                          Payoff %

                          Number

                          that fit %

                          0

                          1

                          2

                          3

                          4

                          5

                           

                          3 or more

                           

                          Jackpot %

                          5

                          2

                          377

                          162

                          11

                          0

                          0

                          0

                           

                          0.00

                           

                          0.00

                          10

                          3

                          313

                          206

                          29

                          2

                          0

                          0

                           

                          0.36

                           

                          0.00

                          15

                          4

                          264

                          226

                          53

                          7

                          0

                          0

                           

                          1.27

                           

                          0.00

                          20

                          10

                          80

                          201

                          196

                          64

                          9

                          0

                           

                          13.27

                           

                          0.00

                          25

                          21

                          7

                          40

                          137

                          193

                          139

                          34

                           

                          66.55

                           

                          6.18

                          30

                          28

                          0

                          5

                          44

                          132

                          239

                          130

                           

                          91.09

                           

                          23.64

                          35

                          34

                          0

                          0

                          3

                          36

                          193

                          318

                           

                          99.45

                           

                          57.82

                          40

                          36

                          0

                          0

                          0

                          12

                          128

                          410

                           

                          100.00

                           

                          74.55

                          45

                          37

                          0

                          0

                          0

                          3

                          91

                          456

                           

                          100.00

                           

                          82.91

                          50

                          39

                          0

                          0

                          0

                          0

                          0

                          550

                           

                          100.00

                           

                          100.00

                          .

                          % of Top

                          To achieve a payoff

                          Occurring

                          3 or more (approx.)

                          Number

                          hot

                          cold

                          25

                          3

                          2

                          30

                          4

                          1

                          132+239+130=501…(501/550)*100=91%..~ 4 hot

                          35

                          5

                          0

                          40

                          5

                          0

                          45

                          5

                          0

                          50

                          5

                          0

                          .

                          % of Top

                          To achieve a jackpot

                          Occurring

                          All Numbers (approx.)

                          Number

                          hot

                          cold

                          comb

                          25

                          0

                          5

                          20k

                          30

                          1

                          4

                          142k

                             (130/550)*100=23%..~ 1 hot

                          35

                          3

                          2

                          278k

                          40

                          3

                          2

                          376k

                          45

                          4

                          1

                          435k

                          50

                          5

                          0

                          575k

                          Hi,

                           I amended the above table to help with the clarity....

                          You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

                          Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

                            Avatar
                            bgonçalves
                            Brasil
                            Member #92564
                            June 9, 2010
                            2122 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: August 26, 2011, 3:59 am - IP Logged

                             hello. jking, very good work, this picture paints a thousand words, the great problem of translation from google, mixing the word takes focus images (in my case), this principle   70% 30% changes with the size of the lottery for it interferes with repetitions, a lottery 39 / 5 reps frequently have more than a lottery 49 / 6, it must adapt to each lottery   Utilizing this condition tends to be valued at more than playing in a sweepstakes (About 30 drawings) in a single event (a single draw) is almost impossible!. the numbers   What else should leave when analyzed separately, not in groups now it contributes   (5 in the lottery 39 / 5), seem to repeat in the range of 70% greater numbers of combinations, the law of averages, ie the fewer numbers come out more often in larger numbers of combinations in itself, does not seem a contradiction! !

                              Avatar
                              bgonçalves
                              Brasil
                              Member #92564
                              June 9, 2010
                              2122 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: September 3, 2011, 10:57 am - IP Logged

                              jking, 20% of numbers are drawn 80% of the time. This theory confirms the need to analyze the frequency of numbers, that is, you should always bet on randomly selected 20% more!

                                 
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