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Mathematics and the Lottery

652 replies. Last post 2 days ago by Catpickednumber.

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Can a winning lottery system be created with existing math formulas?

Yes-It's all in the math books. [ 228 ]  [43.02%]
No-Anew math for will have to be created. [ 78 ]  [14.72%]
Math won't beat the lottery regularly. [ 224 ]  [42.26%]
Total Valid Votes [ 530 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 54 ]  

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United States
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March 14, 2012
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Posted: August 13, 2013, 4:23 am - IP Logged

A simple question....

Why, if there are no mechanisms to determe the next winning numbers, do casinos ban all calculating and computing devices?

By the way, those straws are paying very well lately. *S*

This is why you it is frowned upon to use calculators of any kind in a casino.

They might force you to use your left hand.Chair

    JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

    United States
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    Posted: September 4, 2013, 9:04 am - IP Logged

    You may want to rethink your mathematical approach....

    http://phys.org/news/2013-09-mathematics-effective-world.html

    You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

    Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
      United States
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      March 24, 2001
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      Posted: September 4, 2013, 11:22 am - IP Logged

      You may want to rethink your mathematical approach....

      http://phys.org/news/2013-09-mathematics-effective-world.html

      Sounds like conventional math may be different than lottery math, lottery math has its own rules, maybe even different rules for different games.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

        United States
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        Posted: September 4, 2013, 8:15 pm - IP Logged

        You may want to rethink your mathematical approach....

        http://phys.org/news/2013-09-mathematics-effective-world.html

        JKING

        Good read, thanks for posting

        RL

        Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

        I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

        they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

        USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

          US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

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          Kentucky
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          Posted: September 5, 2013, 5:56 pm - IP Logged

          Sounds like conventional math may be different than lottery math, lottery math has its own rules, maybe even different rules for different games.

          We were told pick-3 games were a bad wager because the lotteries have a 50% payout edge, but it also means the players are sharing 50% of the pot. Considering the fact they only drawn 0.1% of the possible combos each drawing, only 0.1% of the players are sharing in the pot. Some used traditional sound math to show the results of terrible betting strategies and sound math proved by using a terrible betting strategy a few made a profit.

          If a few players using a terrible betting strategy can show a profit, shouldn't a sound betting strategy show a profit too regardless of the 50% payoff edge?

            LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
            Happyland
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            Posted: September 5, 2013, 7:09 pm - IP Logged

            Pick 3 games have fixed prizes. So there is no "pot" to share. It doesn't matter what betting strategy you have, if you do not have an edge then you will lose. I see this in casinos all the time. If you add two negative numbers what do you get? A negative number. So if you place 3 bets on a game with -50% return, it is like adding -50% + -50% + -50% . . . and in the long run you will have lost an amount approximately equal to 50% of each bet.

            If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
            If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

            2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
            P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

              Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
              Los Angeles, California
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              Posted: September 5, 2013, 7:19 pm - IP Logged

              Pick 3 games have fixed prizes. So there is no "pot" to share. It doesn't matter what betting strategy you have, if you do not have an edge then you will lose. I see this in casinos all the time. If you add two negative numbers what do you get? A negative number. So if you place 3 bets on a game with -50% return, it is like adding -50% + -50% + -50% . . . and in the long run you will have lost an amount approximately equal to 50% of each bet.

              Actually, no, there IS a "pot" or as lotteries call it, a prize pool/fund, based on a percentage of sales, usually 50%. Not all lotteries are fixed prizes. Check out CA and NJ lotteries which are pari-mutuel for pick 3/4 and have variable prizes based upon sales and number of winners.

                LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                Happyland
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                Posted: September 5, 2013, 7:21 pm - IP Logged

                Yes, sorry I forgot, 2 or X states out of the 44 states are pari-mutuel.

                In other cases, no shared pot. So for the majority, it doesn't matter.

                If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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                  Kentucky
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                  Posted: September 6, 2013, 12:06 am - IP Logged

                  Pick 3 games have fixed prizes. So there is no "pot" to share. It doesn't matter what betting strategy you have, if you do not have an edge then you will lose. I see this in casinos all the time. If you add two negative numbers what do you get? A negative number. So if you place 3 bets on a game with -50% return, it is like adding -50% + -50% + -50% . . . and in the long run you will have lost an amount approximately equal to 50% of each bet.

                  The total wagered is the "pot" and if the lottery keeps 50% of the pot, by default the other 50% goes to the winners.

                  "So if you place 3 bets on a game with -50% return, it is like adding -50% + -50% + -50% . . . and in the long run you will have lost an amount approximately equal to 50% of each bet."

                  I always wondered how that works because if the lottery keeps on paying out 50% of the sales volume, somebody is getting the other 50%. If nobody can win in the long run, who gets the other 50%?

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                    Kentucky
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                    Posted: September 6, 2013, 12:28 am - IP Logged

                    Actually, no, there IS a "pot" or as lotteries call it, a prize pool/fund, based on a percentage of sales, usually 50%. Not all lotteries are fixed prizes. Check out CA and NJ lotteries which are pari-mutuel for pick 3/4 and have variable prizes based upon sales and number of winners.

                    From the state lottery financial reports I saw, the yearly average is around 50% in pick-3 games and for several years in most. Some states average over $1 million a day in pick-3 sales and that adds up to about $182 million in prizes a year. It seems like a few players should be getting a nice share of it.

                    What is the percentage CA keeps?

                      LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                      Happyland
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                      Posted: September 6, 2013, 12:35 am - IP Logged

                      The total wagered is the "pot" and if the lottery keeps 50% of the pot, by default the other 50% goes to the winners.

                      "So if you place 3 bets on a game with -50% return, it is like adding -50% + -50% + -50% . . . and in the long run you will have lost an amount approximately equal to 50% of each bet."

                      I always wondered how that works because if the lottery keeps on paying out 50% of the sales volume, somebody is getting the other 50%. If nobody can win in the long run, who gets the other 50%?

                      50 (lottery) + 50 (players) = 100.

                      It's simple wealth redistribution. If 1000 people give me a dollar each and I randomly pick 1 and give him/her $500, then he/she gets 50% of the fund and I get the other 50%. The lottery does this on a large scale. People play for the minut chance of winning more than they put in. But if they keep playing over time they will have received/lost their expected value based on the odds and prizes (Law of Large Numbers).

                      So let's say the person I randomly picked keeps playing. He/she only has to play 500 more times to lose all their winnings. With odds of 1:1000 it is pretty likely he/she will go broke before winning again.

                      Another example is a raffle. If the charity takes 50% of all money and gives 50% to the winner, it doesn't matter how many/few tickets they sell- your expected value on a bet would be -50%.

                      If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                      If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                      2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                      P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                        mid-Ohio
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                        Posted: September 7, 2013, 9:52 am - IP Logged

                        From the state lottery financial reports I saw, the yearly average is around 50% in pick-3 games and for several years in most. Some states average over $1 million a day in pick-3 sales and that adds up to about $182 million in prizes a year. It seems like a few players should be getting a nice share of it.

                        What is the percentage CA keeps?

                        It can hardly be a 50/50 split between states and players since states cover the cost or running the games and pay 5% of sales to retailers.

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
                                     Evil Looking       

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                          Kentucky
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                          Posted: September 7, 2013, 8:13 pm - IP Logged

                          It can hardly be a 50/50 split between states and players since states cover the cost or running the games and pay 5% of sales to retailers.

                          The lotteries makes up the difference from the winning tickets the players don't cash.

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                            mid-Ohio
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                            Posted: September 7, 2013, 10:20 pm - IP Logged

                            The lotteries makes up the difference from the winning tickets the players don't cash.

                            With retailers getting 5% of sales for selling and cashing in tickets, vendors probably getting 5% for supplying terminals and software and a staff of managers, security and maintenance people getting 10%, players would have to be giving up cashing in 40% of their prize money.  Do you really feel that many winning tickets go unclaimed?

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

                              SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
                              Economy class
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                              Posted: September 8, 2013, 2:27 pm - IP Logged

                              What is cheaper, playing online or playing by retailers?

                                 
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