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Topic closed. 184 replies. Last post 5 years ago by THRIFTY.

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Economy class
Belgium
Member #123700
February 27, 2012
4035 Posts
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 Posted: March 13, 2012, 7:20 am - IP Logged

"Buying more tickets does make you lose more money".

It is known that, mathematically speaking, your odds of guessing the numbers right are increasing by getting more tickets, but the point is at which price? If by math you lose 50 to 75 cents for every dollar that you spend on tickets, then with every extra ticket that you buy, you are losing more money.

1 ticket = -1 + 0.25 = -0.75
2 tickets = -2 +  0.5 = -1.50
...
100 tickets = -100 + 25 = -75
...

The lottery always wins.

S.

Bronx, NY
United States
Member #124198
March 8, 2012
105 Posts
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 Posted: March 14, 2012, 5:56 pm - IP Logged

The halving theory of Odds Calculation for MegaMillions

(that nobody on LotteryPost believes)

One ticket purchased. Odds of Jackpot 1:175,711,536

Two tickets purchased. Odds of Jackpot 1:87,855,768

Three tickets purchased. Odds of Jackpot 1:43,927,884

Four tickets purchased. Odds of Jackpot 1:21,963,942

Five tickets purchased. Odds of Jackpot 1:10,981,971

Six tickets purchased. Odds of Jackpot 1:5,490,985

Seven tickets purchased. Odds of Jackpot 1:2,745,492

Eight tickets purchased. Odds of Jackpot 1:1,372,746

.............

Ten tickets purchased. Odds of Jackpot 1:343,186

............

Fifteen tickets purchased. Odds of Jackpot 1:10,724

............

Twenty tickets purchased. Odds of jackpot 1:335

Twentyone tickets purchased. Odds of jackpot 1:167

Twentytwo tickets purchased. Odds of jackpot 1:83

Twentythree tickets purchased. Odds of jackpot 1:41

Twentyfour tickets purchased. Odds of jackpot 1:21

Twentyfive tickets purchased. Odds of jackpot 1:10

Nobody figures odds this way. Do they? Instead the odds of winning MegaMillions if 25 tickets are purchased is figured out to be 25:175,711,536 or 1:7,028,461. Right? Each one of the 25 tickets has a 1 in 7,028,461 chance of hitting the jackpot. Right PoeticJustice32?

BlueDuck

I don't know.  I'm terrible at math.  I just think its kind of a common sense thing.  Two is better than one, three is better than two...so on and so forth. I don't know by how much an extra ticket would increase your odds, and I don't even know where  to begin to try to compute that, but it just seems like it would.  Even if its a miniscule amount, an increase is an increase.  I suppose you'd have to buy thousands of tickets to actually make a dent in the odds....but that still adds to the general theory that buying more tickets increases your chances.

Bronx, NY
United States
Member #124198
March 8, 2012
105 Posts
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 Posted: March 14, 2012, 5:57 pm - IP Logged

PoeticJustice32,

Welcome to LotteryPost and hope you have a Great time.

Best Luck,

BlueDuck

(forgot my manners, there, for a minute.)

Thanks BlueDuck.

NY
United States
Member #23835
October 16, 2005
3474 Posts
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 Posted: March 15, 2012, 2:52 am - IP Logged

I don't know.  I'm terrible at math.  I just think its kind of a common sense thing.  Two is better than one, three is better than two...so on and so forth. I don't know by how much an extra ticket would increase your odds, and I don't even know where  to begin to try to compute that, but it just seems like it would.  Even if its a miniscule amount, an increase is an increase.  I suppose you'd have to buy thousands of tickets to actually make a dent in the odds....but that still adds to the general theory that buying more tickets increases your chances.

It's unlikely that you're so bad at math that you can't figure the odds with extra tickets. The lotteries do the hard part of figuring out how many  possible combinations there are and then tell you what your chances are if you buy 1 ticket, such as 1 (chance) in 175 million (possible combinations) for PB and MM.

You're right that it is a common sense thing. That "1" on the left side of the odds literally represents one chance. If you buy more chances all you have to do is change the 1 to reflect the number of chances you have. Buy 2 chances and your odds are 2 in 175 million. Buy 3 chances and your odds are 3 in 175 million. And so on.

If you want to simplify how your odds are expressed just divide both sides by the number of chances you bought. If you buy 1000 chances your odds of 1000 in 175 million are simplified as (1000÷1000) in (175 million÷1000), or 1 in 175 thousand. I'll leave it to you to decide whether improving your odds to 1 in 175,000 is enough to make a dent.

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
19826 Posts
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 Posted: March 15, 2012, 3:06 am - IP Logged

I don't know.  I'm terrible at math.  I just think its kind of a common sense thing.  Two is better than one, three is better than two...so on and so forth. I don't know by how much an extra ticket would increase your odds, and I don't even know where  to begin to try to compute that, but it just seems like it would.  Even if its a miniscule amount, an increase is an increase.  I suppose you'd have to buy thousands of tickets to actually make a dent in the odds....but that still adds to the general theory that buying more tickets increases your chances.

I suppose you'd have to buy thousands of tickets to actually make a dent in the odds....

I think after a thousand tickets, you start talking different combinations instead of tickets.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
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January 17, 2006
10351 Posts
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 Posted: March 15, 2012, 6:54 pm - IP Logged

OK Floyd, I'll play.

The Illinois Little Lotto - a 5/39 game , 1:575,757 - jackpot tonight is \$250,000.

So using your math above I'll put \$100,000 on it, reducing the odds against me to 5.757 to 1,

575,757 / 100,000 according to KY Floyd.

Surely anyone can make a score at those odds, cutting 575,757:1 down to 5.757:1.

The starting jackpot is \$100,000, tonight's is \$250,000, so I'll play my \$100,000, make a \$250,000 score and there you go, right. 250% return, not bad. In poker is called "pot odds". Put the \$100,000 back in the bank and buy a Jaguar, go to Vegas, and make a large futures bet on all the teams in the AL East.

Oh wait, the most common win is a \$1 QP bought in Cook County.

If your math (and fantasy) worked people with the money to play like that would play like that. But they don't. Gee, I wonder why.

If it worked people would be making loans to play.

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

Kentucky
United States
Member #32652
February 14, 2006
7310 Posts
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 Posted: March 16, 2012, 9:46 am - IP Logged

OK Floyd, I'll play.

The Illinois Little Lotto - a 5/39 game , 1:575,757 - jackpot tonight is \$250,000.

So using your math above I'll put \$100,000 on it, reducing the odds against me to 5.757 to 1,

575,757 / 100,000 according to KY Floyd.

Surely anyone can make a score at those odds, cutting 575,757:1 down to 5.757:1.

The starting jackpot is \$100,000, tonight's is \$250,000, so I'll play my \$100,000, make a \$250,000 score and there you go, right. 250% return, not bad. In poker is called "pot odds". Put the \$100,000 back in the bank and buy a Jaguar, go to Vegas, and make a large futures bet on all the teams in the AL East.

Oh wait, the most common win is a \$1 QP bought in Cook County.

If your math (and fantasy) worked people with the money to play like that would play like that. But they don't. Gee, I wonder why.

If it worked people would be making loans to play.

"So using your math above I'll put \$100,000 on it, reducing the odds against me to 5.757 to 1, 575,757 / 100,000 according to KY Floyd."

It's chances to lose to chances to win reduced to the lowest common denominator. (575,757 - 100,000) / 100,000; 4.75757 to 1. And not a good bet when the payoff odds are only \$1.50 to \$1.

"The starting jackpot is \$100,000, tonight's is \$250,000, so I'll play my \$100,000, make a \$250,000 score and there you go, right. 250% return, not bad."

You forgot to subtract the cost of the tickets. You paid \$100,000 to get a \$250,000 check and that's only a 150% return.

"In poker is called "pot odds"."

Not many good poker players in most situations would consider \$1.50 to \$1 good pot odds when the odds against making their hand is almost 5 to 1. Most would want, at the least a \$10 to \$1 pot odds return.

Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
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January 17, 2006
10351 Posts
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 Posted: March 16, 2012, 11:04 am - IP Logged

Stack47,

No one hit it last night, it's now \$325,000, but had we played our 100,000 tickets (one line of numbers per ticket) despite the hype job of fractions, we would have had 100,000 combinations played and 475,757 not played.

In other words 17.4% of the combinations played and 82.6% of the possible combinations not played, that is the true story on fractions.

Reducing them, in this case to 5.575 or 4.757 to one sounds good, but it just isn't valid. But the lotteries sure do delight in the people who do believe it and play that way. \$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

upstate NY
United States
Member #108791
March 31, 2011
549 Posts
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 Posted: March 16, 2012, 5:14 pm - IP Logged

Man, we're still going at this?

Anyway, this thread gave me an idea.  Somewhere in this mess, someone (I think it was Coin Toss) offered the scenario of playing 175,000 MM/PB lines at once, effectively reducing the odds/increasing your chances to 1 in 1000.  I believe the point of it was to illustrate that the odds are still long even at that grand scale.  That got me to thinking:  What if you actually did that?  There's still a 99.9% chance that you won't win the jackpot, but what kind of winners will you get?

So, to explore this scenario, I started a blog here at LP called The "One In 1000" Project.  I just posted the results from the first set of drawings (MM 3/13, PB 3/14), and the plan is to continue to follow this for quite some time.

Sorry about the shameless plug, but I figured there might be some interested parties here.  Enjoy!

Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
Member #30470
January 17, 2006
10351 Posts
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 Posted: March 16, 2012, 5:50 pm - IP Logged

Sounds like an interesting idea mediabrat. I haven't checkd you blog yet but for the game I mentioned the lower payouts are set,

2 of 5 pays \$1

3 of 5 pays \$10

4 of 5 pays \$100

So since we're talking make believe \$175,000 plays it would be real easy to get buried real quick.

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
Member #30470
January 17, 2006
10351 Posts
Offline
 Posted: March 16, 2012, 6:26 pm - IP Logged

Disregard above post, my bad. I see you're using Mega Millions, let's see what happens when 1750,000 combinations of over 175,000,000 are covered.

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

upstate NY
United States
Member #108791
March 31, 2011
549 Posts
Offline
 Posted: March 16, 2012, 6:35 pm - IP Logged

Sounds like an interesting idea mediabrat. I haven't checkd you blog yet but for the game I mentioned the lower payouts are set,

2 of 5 pays \$1

3 of 5 pays \$10

4 of 5 pays \$100

So since we're talking make believe \$175,000 plays it would be real easy to get buried real quick.

Maybe I'll modify my program so that I can do one-offs of state games.  It already allows me to pick the number of lines I want.

EDIT:  I saw the "disregard" notice, I just thought I'd respond to the first post anyway.

Appleton, Wi
United States
Member #118178
October 24, 2011
199 Posts
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 Posted: March 16, 2012, 7:51 pm - IP Logged

Man, we're still going at this?

Anyway, this thread gave me an idea.  Somewhere in this mess, someone (I think it was Coin Toss) offered the scenario of playing 175,000 MM/PB lines at once, effectively reducing the odds/increasing your chances to 1 in 1000.  I believe the point of it was to illustrate that the odds are still long even at that grand scale.  That got me to thinking:  What if you actually did that?  There's still a 99.9% chance that you won't win the jackpot, but what kind of winners will you get?

So, to explore this scenario, I started a blog here at LP called The "One In 1000" Project.  I just posted the results from the first set of drawings (MM 3/13, PB 3/14), and the plan is to continue to follow this for quite some time.

Sorry about the shameless plug, but I figured there might be some interested parties here.  Enjoy!

Mediabrat:

Great idea and many thanks. Could you try this please? Could you select draws that center around a "range of sums" of 106----143(mid)----179 for the 5/56 MM Lottery Game

and

111-----150(mid)----189 for the 5/59 Power Ball Game?? This might answer the question: Will winning tickets, happen most often, when the "range of sums" add up to the "Most Probable Sum" as hypothesized in the Lottery Masters Guide?

Will be looking at your blog with much interest,

Thank you,

BlueDuck

Economy class
Belgium
Member #123700
February 27, 2012
4035 Posts
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 Posted: March 16, 2012, 8:16 pm - IP Logged

The way that I see the odds it is simpler.

You want the jackpot and the rest is not winning to you.
So there is winning and losing, two cases, 1:1 chance.

The KEY ingredient is Combos & Patterns
Elgin, IL
United States
Member #68867
January 1, 2009
1221 Posts
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 Posted: March 16, 2012, 8:25 pm - IP Logged

The stated odds for winning the Mega Million are 1 in 175,711,536 because these odds are to cover every possible combination.  But what if; there are certain combinations and patterns that come in more than others.  Your odds are still the same, but you chances have improved drastictly.  To view/download combos & patterns found in the Mega Millions game - Go To -  http://www.box.com/shared/egb8g98jzt

There have been 702 drawings from 06/24/05 thru 03/13/12.  I have come up with 201 groups so far, that are made up of 644 drawings out of the total 702 drawings.  Or a total of 91.74% of the total drawings in the timeframed mentioned above.  So if you are playing numbers that are not  found in one of my 201 groups; your chances are reduced to a possible 8.26% of the remaining combinations.   Makes you want to stop and think about it for awhile.

Food for thought..........................

P.S.  If you wheel some of the combinations in a given group like I do - My odds are still the same, but my chances of winning are improving,

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