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Buying More Tickets Does Not Increase Your Odds.

Topic closed. 184 replies. Last post 5 years ago by THRIFTY.

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Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
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Posted: March 3, 2012, 1:35 am - IP Logged

No, I read it, I tried too.

If what is proposed with these 'better chances' were true the hi-rollers in the baccarat pits in Vegas would be asking for plane rides to California to play lotto.

Good Luck.

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

Lep

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

    RedStang's avatar - tallman zps6gf4inoc.jpg
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    Posted: March 3, 2012, 1:38 am - IP Logged

    LOL Ten hours later and everyone is still arguing.

      savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
      adelaide sa
      Australia
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      April 11, 2006
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      Posted: March 3, 2012, 1:46 am - IP Logged

      ok  i can do 1 more maths thingy. the number of LP members all buy 1 ticket ea. no repeats.

      99.92918 % chance of failure

       

      youcan either do 123k/175M

      or 1/ 1422 , the percent chance s the same

       

      the numbers are approx, as i cant be bothered typing in exact  amounts

      2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016  = -1171; 2017 = ?  TOT =  -3596

      keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= -424; 2017 = ? TOT = - 3318

        mediabrat's avatar - 18z0typ
        upstate NY
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        Posted: March 3, 2012, 2:00 am - IP Logged

        savagegoose beat me to it.  1 in 1,422.8 isn't quite the slam dunk Coin Toss seems to think it is.  It's still extremely possible that you won't hit the jackpot.  Chances are you'll earn a decent amount of money back, but you're still dropping almost $250K (almost $375K if you're doing Power Play) on a less-than-1% possibility of landing the big one.  I'm not about to sit here and try to calculate the odds of breaking even, though it would make for a decent project for someone inclined to do so.

          Avatar
          Los Angeles, CA
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          Posted: March 3, 2012, 2:36 am - IP Logged

          The probability of hitting the winning combination does increase (albeit ever so slightly) if you buy more than one ticket

          Maybe a smaller scale example should help people understand?

          There's a jar of 25 marbles (marbles here shall represent the number of combinations in the lotto), each numbered 1-25. Your objective is to guess which one number marble will be picked out of the 25 (like hitting the right combination). If you wager for one number (like buying one ticket), your odds of getting the correct number are 1 in 25. If you wager for two numbers (buying two tickets), you now have odds of 2 in 25. Wagering three gets you odds of 3 in 25, and so on, and so on.

          If I were to wager for the number 13 marble, I have 1(my wager) in 25(total possible marbles) odds. If I wager two numbers, let's say 13 and 20, then I have 2 in 25; my two numbers equate to two possible marbles that could be the chosen one of the 25, thus bettering my odds from only wagering one number.

          I really hope that's a good enough analogy

            Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
            Zeta Reticuli Star System
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            Posted: March 3, 2012, 2:38 am - IP Logged

            Coin Toss hardly thinks it's a slam dunk....

            Theorhetically, if you believed it, you could just keep buying more tickets to reduce the 1422.8 down and down........the point is it just doesn't work, and the lotteries know it all too well.

            Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

            Lep

            There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

              mediabrat's avatar - 18z0typ
              upstate NY
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              Posted: March 3, 2012, 2:42 am - IP Logged

              Just like in the thread where we were discussing whether Powerball sales were up or down, it comes down to how you define the terms.  Mathematically, your odds most certainly do improve with each additional line purchased.  It's just that those odds are so infinitesimal (roughly six ten-millionths of one percent on a single play) as to not make a difference.  Realistically, you're living on a prayer no matter how many tickets you buy.

                Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                Posted: March 3, 2012, 2:49 am - IP Logged

                Exactly, mediabrat.

                My point all along has been that there are those who think with enough $ they

                could just keep halving the odds until they did have a slam dunk.......and the lottieries love it.

                Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                Lep

                There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                  SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
                  Economy class
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                  Posted: March 3, 2012, 5:17 am - IP Logged

                  There is bulk play when they didn't pay out the jackpot for a long time. They buy many tickets and win.

                    THRIFTY's avatar - great seal_obverse.jpg
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                    Posted: March 3, 2012, 9:14 am - IP Logged

                    Buying more tickets does in fact improve your odds.  You have odds and chances mixed up.  Your odds get mathematically better the more tickets you buy, but your overall chances remain low.

                    The only way to increase or decrease the Odds of any lottery game is by changing the game matrix. The Odds are the equation of the game. Coin Toss understood my point "Thrifty is right, each individual ticket (one line of numbers) is up against the very same odds, 175,000,000 to one."

                    Yes you can increase your chances of winning by buying more tickets, but every single tickets will go against the Odds of the particular game.I feel that the following explains my point very well.

                    "In a similar manner, we can calculate the odds of picking the right number when two, three, four and five balls have been drawn. You know the odds of a coin toss resulting in heads are 1/2 = 2:1. The odds of two consecutive tosses both resulting in heads are 1/2 x 1/2 = 4:1. The odds of three consecutive tosses all resulting in heads are 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 8:1. The odds of picking all six lottery numbers are calculated the same way -- by multiplying together the odds of each individual event. In this case:
                    Some states have been increasing or decreasing the number of balls in order to change the odds. If the odds are too easy, then someone will win the jackpot almost every week and the prize will never grow.
                    Large jackpots tend to drive more ticket sales. If the prize is not large enough, ticket sales can decrease. On the other hand, if the odds against winning are too great, ticket sales can also decline. It is important for each lottery to find the right balance between the odds and the number of people playing.
                    If you add just one number to our hypothetical lottery, so people now have to pick from 51 balls, the odds increase to 18,009,460:1. "

                    For example the powerball increased the odds of winning by changing the game matrix odds from 1 in 195 millions to 1 in 175 millions. We can only increase our chances of winning by buying more tickets, only the game makers or the house increase or decrease the odds of winning any game by changing the game matrix.

                    Maybe we just see things different.

                      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                      Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                      Posted: March 3, 2012, 10:41 am - IP Logged

                      Just like in the thread where we were discussing whether Powerball sales were up or down, it comes down to how you define the terms.  Mathematically, your odds most certainly do improve with each additional line purchased.  It's just that those odds are so infinitesimal (roughly six ten-millionths of one percent on a single play) as to not make a difference.  Realistically, you're living on a prayer no matter how many tickets you buy.

                      This should be pinned somewhere in this forum:

                      " It's just that those odds are so infinitesimal (roughly six ten-millionths of one percent on a single play) as to not make a difference."

                      Can we say this coms down to the old business adage of Are you buying or selling?

                      Good Luck all

                      Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                      Lep

                      There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                        THRIFTY's avatar - great seal_obverse.jpg
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                        Posted: March 3, 2012, 2:24 pm - IP Logged

                        The only way to increase or decrease the Odds of any lottery game is by changing the game matrix. The Odds are the equation of the game. Coin Toss understood my point "Thrifty is right, each individual ticket (one line of numbers) is up against the very same odds, 175,000,000 to one."

                        Yes you can increase your chances of winning by buying more tickets, but every single tickets will go against the Odds of the particular game.I feel that the following explains my point very well.

                        "In a similar manner, we can calculate the odds of picking the right number when two, three, four and five balls have been drawn. You know the odds of a coin toss resulting in heads are 1/2 = 2:1. The odds of two consecutive tosses both resulting in heads are 1/2 x 1/2 = 4:1. The odds of three consecutive tosses all resulting in heads are 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 8:1. The odds of picking all six lottery numbers are calculated the same way -- by multiplying together the odds of each individual event. In this case:
                        Some states have been increasing or decreasing the number of balls in order to change the odds. If the odds are too easy, then someone will win the jackpot almost every week and the prize will never grow.
                        Large jackpots tend to drive more ticket sales. If the prize is not large enough, ticket sales can decrease. On the other hand, if the odds against winning are too great, ticket sales can also decline. It is important for each lottery to find the right balance between the odds and the number of people playing.
                        If you add just one number to our hypothetical lottery, so people now have to pick from 51 balls, the odds increase to 18,009,460:1. "

                        For example the powerball increased the odds of winning by changing the game matrix odds from 1 in 195 millions to 1 in 175 millions. We can only increase our chances of winning by buying more tickets, only the game makers or the house increase or decrease the odds of winning any game by changing the game matrix.

                        Maybe we just see things different.

                        "Thrifty is right, each individual ticket (one line of numbers) is up against the very same odds, 175,000,000 to one."

                        You can't increase or decrease the Odds without changing the game matrix.

                        "The "enriched Powerball game" will still have participants choosing their first five numbers from a pool of 59, but the numbers available for the Powerball itself will drop to 35 from 39. That will raise the odds of winning to 1 in 175 million from 1 in 192 million.

                        It does not matter how many people play the odds never change with the amount of tickets purchased the only thing affected by the amount of players is the size of the jackpot if there are multiple winners."

                          Avatar
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                          Posted: March 3, 2012, 7:57 pm - IP Logged

                          The only way to increase or decrease the Odds of any lottery game is by changing the game matrix. The Odds are the equation of the game. Coin Toss understood my point "Thrifty is right, each individual ticket (one line of numbers) is up against the very same odds, 175,000,000 to one."

                          Yes you can increase your chances of winning by buying more tickets, but every single tickets will go against the Odds of the particular game.I feel that the following explains my point very well.

                          "In a similar manner, we can calculate the odds of picking the right number when two, three, four and five balls have been drawn. You know the odds of a coin toss resulting in heads are 1/2 = 2:1. The odds of two consecutive tosses both resulting in heads are 1/2 x 1/2 = 4:1. The odds of three consecutive tosses all resulting in heads are 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 8:1. The odds of picking all six lottery numbers are calculated the same way -- by multiplying together the odds of each individual event. In this case:
                          Some states have been increasing or decreasing the number of balls in order to change the odds. If the odds are too easy, then someone will win the jackpot almost every week and the prize will never grow.
                          Large jackpots tend to drive more ticket sales. If the prize is not large enough, ticket sales can decrease. On the other hand, if the odds against winning are too great, ticket sales can also decline. It is important for each lottery to find the right balance between the odds and the number of people playing.
                          If you add just one number to our hypothetical lottery, so people now have to pick from 51 balls, the odds increase to 18,009,460:1. "

                          For example the powerball increased the odds of winning by changing the game matrix odds from 1 in 195 millions to 1 in 175 millions. We can only increase our chances of winning by buying more tickets, only the game makers or the house increase or decrease the odds of winning any game by changing the game matrix.

                          Maybe we just see things different.


                          "Yes you can increase your chances of winning by buying more tickets"

                          Do you understand that that's exactly what most  people have been saying all through the thread? And that a while back you said, " If you buy 2 tickets your chances of winning are not 2 in 175 millions. You have 1 in 175 millions twice."

                          "The only way to increase or decrease the Odds of any lottery game is by changing the game matrix."

                          That's true, but you don't understand it completely. The odds of the game are determined by the matrix, but the odds of the game are based on having only one chance. It's how many chances you have that determine your odds. Odds and chances are just two ways of expressing the same idea

                          Properly expressed, odds are a ratio of the number of ways that something can happen to the number of ways that it won't happen. Since the correct odds of the game are based on having only one chance the correct odds of the MM game are 1 winning combination to 175,711,535 losing combinations. Chances express the same idea, but the number of ways an event can happen are compared to the total number of possible events, thus the chances of winning MM is 1 winning combination in 175,711,536 possible combinations (including the winning one, as well as all the losing ones).   

                          When you have 2 chances the left side of the equation increases by 1, because there are now 2 ways that you can win.   If we're describing the odds the right side decreases by 1, because there is one less combination that will result in you losing. If we're describing chances the right side will remain the same, because the total numbe rof possible results remains the same. Thus, if you have 2 tickets:
                          your odds are  2 (ways to win) to 175,711,534 (ways to lose)
                          your chances are 2 (ways to win) in 175,711,536 (possible results)

                          In both ways of describing it the side favoring you has doubled. You now agree that your chances have increased, and I presume you agree that your chances doubled. Do oyu still want to say that even though your chances increased your odds are still 1 to 175,711,535?

                          Finally, how would you describe your chances of drawing an ace from a full deck of cards? Do you agree that it's 4 in 52? Do you agree that 4 in 52 is the same as 1 in 13? Do you agree that the odds are 4 to 48, and that's the same as 1 to 12?

                            THRIFTY's avatar - great seal_obverse.jpg
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                            Posted: March 4, 2012, 11:35 am - IP Logged


                            "Yes you can increase your chances of winning by buying more tickets"

                            Do you understand that that's exactly what most  people have been saying all through the thread? And that a while back you said, " If you buy 2 tickets your chances of winning are not 2 in 175 millions. You have 1 in 175 millions twice."

                            "The only way to increase or decrease the Odds of any lottery game is by changing the game matrix."

                            That's true, but you don't understand it completely. The odds of the game are determined by the matrix, but the odds of the game are based on having only one chance. It's how many chances you have that determine your odds. Odds and chances are just two ways of expressing the same idea

                            Properly expressed, odds are a ratio of the number of ways that something can happen to the number of ways that it won't happen. Since the correct odds of the game are based on having only one chance the correct odds of the MM game are 1 winning combination to 175,711,535 losing combinations. Chances express the same idea, but the number of ways an event can happen are compared to the total number of possible events, thus the chances of winning MM is 1 winning combination in 175,711,536 possible combinations (including the winning one, as well as all the losing ones).   

                            When you have 2 chances the left side of the equation increases by 1, because there are now 2 ways that you can win.   If we're describing the odds the right side decreases by 1, because there is one less combination that will result in you losing. If we're describing chances the right side will remain the same, because the total numbe rof possible results remains the same. Thus, if you have 2 tickets:
                            your odds are  2 (ways to win) to 175,711,534 (ways to lose)
                            your chances are 2 (ways to win) in 175,711,536 (possible results)

                            In both ways of describing it the side favoring you has doubled. You now agree that your chances have increased, and I presume you agree that your chances doubled. Do oyu still want to say that even though your chances increased your odds are still 1 to 175,711,535?

                            Finally, how would you describe your chances of drawing an ace from a full deck of cards? Do you agree that it's 4 in 52? Do you agree that 4 in 52 is the same as 1 in 13? Do you agree that the odds are 4 to 48, and that's the same as 1 to 12?

                            THE LOTTERY IS A ZERO SUM GAME WITH A SUNK COST AND  AN OPPORTUNITY COST.

                            Lottery tickets reduce your net worth unlike stocks. You only receive .50 cents back on every dollar you spend on lottery games in the USA. I have to agree that most players win the lottery by buying more than 1 lottery ticket, but they also lose a lot of money in the short run in opportunity cost.

                            They should raise the price of Mega Millions and Powerball to $5 per ticket and lets see how it feels to buy multiple tickets relative to saving it or investing it.

                            "The average lottery player nationwide spends $150 per month on the game. That's a lot of money and there's a significant opportunity cost in spending that much money every month on a game where your odds of winning are akin to burning your cash in the fireplace to stay warm."

                            There is nothing wrong with buying 1 lottery ticket at some time in the future to have a chance of winning a jackpot.

                              SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
                              Economy class
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                              Posted: March 4, 2012, 12:59 pm - IP Logged

                              This should be pinned somewhere in this forum:

                              " It's just that those odds are so infinitesimal (roughly six ten-millionths of one percent on a single play) as to not make a difference."

                              Can we say this coms down to the old business adage of Are you buying or selling?

                              Good Luck all

                              LOL, I like to add odds of losing to the overview!

                              I posted a probability table for keno (20/70), the last line shows the losing odds!

                              http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/236304/2433608?q=SergeM&tab=us&rp=search

                                 
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