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Buying More Tickets Does Not Increase Your Odds.

Topic closed. 184 replies. Last post 5 years ago by THRIFTY.

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mediabrat's avatar - 18z0typ
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Posted: March 16, 2012, 9:36 pm - IP Logged

I'll see what I can do.  Right now my number generator is on the simple side; it selects from the full range of numbers without regard to sums or anything like that, and it ensures that every combination is unique.  I'm reluctant to change the parameters of the original project because I don't want to affect the integrity of the data, but since there seems to be enough interest, maybe I'll do a side project of various one-offs like sum ranges, wheeling, and state games.  Also, I'd have to read up on the best practices for generating the specialized numbers; I'd hate to simply take a stab in the dark and find I've been doing it wrong.

But sure, I'll definitely look into some of these advanced topics.  If nothing else, it'll keep things interesting.

 

EDIT:  That was supposed to be a reply to BlueDuck, I forgot to click the "include quoted text" box.

Patriot

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    Posted: March 17, 2012, 1:30 am - IP Logged

    Stack47,

    No one hit it last night, it's now $325,000, but had we played our 100,000 tickets (one line of numbers per ticket) despite the hype job of fractions, we would have had 100,000 combinations played and 475,757 not played.

    In other words 17.4% of the combinations played and 82.6% of the possible combinations not played, that is the true story on fractions.

    Reducing them, in this case to 5.575 or 4.757 to one sounds good, but it just isn't valid. But the lotteries sure do delight in the people who do believe it and play that way. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

    I realize that it may be a difficult question given your nearly infinite supply of stupid, but if you play 20% of the possible combinations, what do you supose are your chances of winning, as a percentage?

    Here's another challenging question for you. If your chances of winning are 1 in 5.757, are you more likely to win or to lose?

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      Posted: March 17, 2012, 1:31 am - IP Logged

      Man, we're still going at this?

      Anyway, this thread gave me an idea.  Somewhere in this mess, someone (I think it was Coin Toss) offered the scenario of playing 175,000 MM/PB lines at once, effectively reducing the odds/increasing your chances to 1 in 1000.  I believe the point of it was to illustrate that the odds are still long even at that grand scale.  That got me to thinking:  What if you actually did that?  There's still a 99.9% chance that you won't win the jackpot, but what kind of winners will you get?

      So, to explore this scenario, I started a blog here at LP called The "One In 1000" Project.  I just posted the results from the first set of drawings (MM 3/13, PB 3/14), and the plan is to continue to follow this for quite some time.

      Sorry about the shameless plug, but I figured there might be some interested parties here.  Enjoy!

      " I believe the point of it was to illustrate that the odds are still long even at that grand scale."

      You misunderstand what he's saying. He doesn't believe that buying 175,000 tickets gives you odds of 1 in 1000.

        Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
        Zeta Reticuli Star System
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        Posted: March 17, 2012, 3:22 am - IP Logged

        In a field of 175,000,000 combinations it takes a lot more than 175,000 to = 1 in 1,000.

        Now who is stupid Floyd?

        Mayh is an exact science, there are no variables. If your magic fractions to reduce the odds worked, the fraction you think you've reduced them to would be reflected by the same exact amount of combinations played and not played.

        It doesn't work.

        Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

        Lep

        There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

          RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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          Posted: March 17, 2012, 5:11 am - IP Logged

          In a field of 175,000,000 combinations it takes a lot more than 175,000 to = 1 in 1,000.

          Now who is stupid Floyd?

          Mayh is an exact science, there are no variables. If your magic fractions to reduce the odds worked, the fraction you think you've reduced them to would be reflected by the same exact amount of combinations played and not played.

          It doesn't work.

          CT

          This is funny,  The odds for the game never change unless the matrix changes.  The persons chances

          increase with each ticket purchased.  Buying one ticket gives you a much better chance than not buying

          a ticket and having more than one is even better.  Chances of hitting a lower prizes improve with with

          every ticket purchased unless you play the same numbers.  I don't believe in prediction per-say but there

          are many things a person can do to build a smarter set.  PartyIf-or-and are three of my favorite words.

           

          RL

          Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

          I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

          they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

          USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

            US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

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            Posted: March 17, 2012, 7:32 am - IP Logged

            Mediabrat:

               Great idea and many thanks. Could you try this please? Could you select draws that center around a "range of sums" of 106----143(mid)----179 for the 5/56 MM Lottery Game

                                                                                 and

            111-----150(mid)----189 for the 5/59 Power Ball Game?? This might answer the question: Will winning tickets, happen most often, when the "range of sums" add up to the "Most Probable Sum" as hypothesized in the Lottery Masters Guide?

             

            Will be looking at your blog with much interest,

            Thank you,

            BlueDuck

            Mediabrat:

                Ahhhh ......., about my "most probable sum" question???? Probably not a very good question. Back testing should answer the question just as well. Please continue to do what your doing.

            Thanks,

            BlueDuck

              mediabrat's avatar - 18z0typ
              upstate NY
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              Posted: March 17, 2012, 11:10 am - IP Logged

              Mediabrat:

                  Ahhhh ......., about my "most probable sum" question???? Probably not a very good question. Back testing should answer the question just as well. Please continue to do what your doing.

              Thanks,

              BlueDuck

              You know, I could try that too.  I have the numbers for Mega Millions, Powerball, and a few of NY's games (Lotto, Sweet Million, and Take 5) going back to the beginning of 2010, so some back-testing shouldn't be much of a problem.

              Patriot

                mediabrat's avatar - 18z0typ
                upstate NY
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                Posted: March 17, 2012, 11:24 am - IP Logged

                In a field of 175,000,000 combinations it takes a lot more than 175,000 to = 1 in 1,000.

                Now who is stupid Floyd?

                Mayh is an exact science, there are no variables. If your magic fractions to reduce the odds worked, the fraction you think you've reduced them to would be reflected by the same exact amount of combinations played and not played.

                It doesn't work.

                Okay, I'll bite.  How many combinations out of 175,000,000 does it take to get to 1 in 1,000?

                There's no "magic fractions" at work here.  Reducing fractions to lowest terms is a perfectly valid method of restating the same number.  Another way of restating the number is in decimal form:

                • 175,000 / 175,000,000 = 0.001 = 0.1%
                • 1 / 1,000 = 0.001 = 0.1%

                Maybe I have misunderstood you all along, but I thought your issue was that reducing the fractions gave people an unwarranted psychological boost.  That is, they think "1 in 1000" are better odds than "175,000 in 175 million", even though they're exactly the same.  I can't speak for the general public, but I think all of us here can agree that this is not the case.

                Bottom line, we all know that buying 5 or 10 tickets does not appreciably improve your chances at hitting a jackpot.  Many of us do it, though, because it's still gives you an ever-so-slightly better chance than if you only bought one ticket.  You can't win if you don't play.  Just don't wager more than you can afford to lose.

                Patriot

                  Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                  Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                  Posted: March 17, 2012, 1:41 pm - IP Logged

                  RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

                  No matter how many chances are bought ech and everyone of those chances are up against the same odds......unless they are drawing more than one set of winning numbers.

                  Medibrat,

                  There was a thread similar to this about six years ago, but the gist of that thread was "cutting the odds in half".  Much of the discussion was at odds of 175M to 1, a second dollar played would reduce them to 87.5M to 1, same discussion as this. But some of those proposing that said that the second dollar eliminated 87.5M combinations, reduucing the field of sets of numbers not covered by half. "Once upon a time....." (IIf only players could really do that.

                  KY Floyd,

                  OK, for your fraction theory let's consider this. Imagine every ticket played for any particular drawing as one massive lottery pool. How many tickets played would that be, and applying your fraction theory to those tickets played, heck someone would have to win, no? And what about a pumped up jackpot and over 175,000,000 tickets played. Your theory would make it absolutely amazing when there was no winner on such a draw.

                  But of the two MM and PB drawings a week for 52 weeks, year in and year out only about 12 to 15 of those for each game produce a jackpot. That is a fact, everything else discussed here is flawed theory.

                  If all tickets were part of one massive pool the Floyd Fractionalized Fantasy would work and there'd be a lot more jackpots paid. (Actually, to the lottery, they are kind of one massive pool, it's a payout or no payout situation).

                  PS Floyd,

                  I think Don Caitlin's book is still in the bookstore. you might want to read it. The intro is a story about a winner and the nest chapter or so is about how lotteries are created and how the odds are determined. It's not quite the way the system peddlers and others want the players to think.

                  Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                  Lep

                  There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                    mid-Ohio
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                    Posted: March 17, 2012, 2:50 pm - IP Logged

                    Do you rally think any theory or strategy that has a chance of winning would be openly discussed at LP?

                    Did any LP member from Massachusett  discuss the strategy that big spenders were using to beat their lottery with its roll down scheme before it was exposed by the news paper? 

                    If someone knows of a strategy that wins, they are probably using it if it's within their budget, not talking about it.

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       

                      New York's avatar - 103h4yr
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                      Posted: March 17, 2012, 3:01 pm - IP Logged

                      Do you rally think any theory or strategy that has a chance of winning would be openly discussed at LP?

                      Did any LP member from Massachusett  discuss the strategy that big spenders were using to beat their lottery with its roll down scheme before it was exposed by the news paper? 

                      If someone knows of a strategy that wins, they are probably using it if it's within their budget, not talking about it.

                      That's what I'm doing with my pick 4 strategy (I ain't talking). It works everytime and has 35 winners plus in one month. I'm not sharing anything because it will be abused and God forbid, the Win 4 in NY might have to shut down.

                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                        mid-Ohio
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                        Posted: March 17, 2012, 3:06 pm - IP Logged

                        I'll see what I can do.  Right now my number generator is on the simple side; it selects from the full range of numbers without regard to sums or anything like that, and it ensures that every combination is unique.  I'm reluctant to change the parameters of the original project because I don't want to affect the integrity of the data, but since there seems to be enough interest, maybe I'll do a side project of various one-offs like sum ranges, wheeling, and state games.  Also, I'd have to read up on the best practices for generating the specialized numbers; I'd hate to simply take a stab in the dark and find I've been doing it wrong.

                        But sure, I'll definitely look into some of these advanced topics.  If nothing else, it'll keep things interesting.

                         

                        EDIT:  That was supposed to be a reply to BlueDuck, I forgot to click the "include quoted text" box.

                        The "One In 1000" Project:  A Lottery Post blog exploring what exactly happens when you improve your odds of winning Mega Millions or Powerball to 1 in 1000.  (Spoiler alert: not much.)

                        No one could improve their odds better than owning all the MM or PB tickets bought in their town and yet how many PB or MM jackpot winners are there in their town?. 

                        Put another way.  If they owned a piece or every ticket sold in the country what are their chances when many drawings go with no jackpot winners in spite of twenty millions tickets being sold.

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
                                     Evil Looking       

                          mediabrat's avatar - 18z0typ
                          upstate NY
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                          Posted: March 17, 2012, 6:37 pm - IP Logged

                          The "One In 1000" Project:  A Lottery Post blog exploring what exactly happens when you improve your odds of winning Mega Millions or Powerball to 1 in 1000.  (Spoiler alert: not much.)

                          No one could improve their odds better than owning all the MM or PB tickets bought in their town and yet how many PB or MM jackpot winners are there in their town?. 

                          Put another way.  If they owned a piece or every ticket sold in the country what are their chances when many drawings go with no jackpot winners in spite of twenty millions tickets being sold.

                          Even with twenty million tickets being sold, you're still not guaranteed a winner for two reasons:

                          1. There are 175 million combinations.  20 million doesn't begin to cover every possibility.
                          2. And there's no way for us to know how many actual combinations were sold.  In other words, how many tickets sold are owned by multiple people?  The lotteries know, but they ain't tellin'.

                          But let's assume they've sold 20 million unique combinations.  There's about a 11.43% chance that someone will win the big one.

                          Besides, that's not the point of my project.  With what I'm doing, there's a 0.1% chance that I'll get a jackpot.  My research aims to figure out how many lower-tier prizes you can get from those 175,000 lines.  It should be easy enough to determine the odds of winning each of those prizes, but I want to see how much money you can get back from your initial investment.

                          Patriot

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                            Posted: March 18, 2012, 1:54 am - IP Logged

                            RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

                            No matter how many chances are bought ech and everyone of those chances are up against the same odds......unless they are drawing more than one set of winning numbers.

                            Medibrat,

                            There was a thread similar to this about six years ago, but the gist of that thread was "cutting the odds in half".  Much of the discussion was at odds of 175M to 1, a second dollar played would reduce them to 87.5M to 1, same discussion as this. But some of those proposing that said that the second dollar eliminated 87.5M combinations, reduucing the field of sets of numbers not covered by half. "Once upon a time....." (IIf only players could really do that.

                            KY Floyd,

                            OK, for your fraction theory let's consider this. Imagine every ticket played for any particular drawing as one massive lottery pool. How many tickets played would that be, and applying your fraction theory to those tickets played, heck someone would have to win, no? And what about a pumped up jackpot and over 175,000,000 tickets played. Your theory would make it absolutely amazing when there was no winner on such a draw.

                            But of the two MM and PB drawings a week for 52 weeks, year in and year out only about 12 to 15 of those for each game produce a jackpot. That is a fact, everything else discussed here is flawed theory.

                            If all tickets were part of one massive pool the Floyd Fractionalized Fantasy would work and there'd be a lot more jackpots paid. (Actually, to the lottery, they are kind of one massive pool, it's a payout or no payout situation).

                            PS Floyd,

                            I think Don Caitlin's book is still in the bookstore. you might want to read it. The intro is a story about a winner and the nest chapter or so is about how lotteries are created and how the odds are determined. It's not quite the way the system peddlers and others want the players to think.

                            "Imagine every ticket played for any particular drawing as one massive lottery pool."

                            Every drawing is a massive pool, except that if there's a winner they don't have to share the prize. The odds of a winner are based entirely on how many combinations are  played, not who bought the individual tickets.

                            " How many tickets played would that be, and applying your fraction theory to those tickets played, heck someone would have to win, no?"

                            My "fraction theory" is that selling 17.5 million tickets (all with a unique combination) results in odds of 17,500,000 in 175,000,000 or 1 in 10 that there will be a winner. You seem to be saying that if I'm right a winner would be a 100% certainty.

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                              Posted: March 18, 2012, 11:53 am - IP Logged

                              The biggest increase in odds by far is going from having 0 tickets to 1 ticket, because you come out of the realm of impossibility to possibility. So I try to buy at least $1 in each game for every draw so I always have a chance.

                                 
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