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Buying More Tickets Does Not Increase Your Odds.

Topic closed. 184 replies. Last post 5 years ago by THRIFTY.

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RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
mid-Ohio
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March 24, 2001
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Posted: March 18, 2012, 3:19 pm - IP Logged

Even with twenty million tickets being sold, you're still not guaranteed a winner for two reasons:

  1. There are 175 million combinations.  20 million doesn't begin to cover every possibility.
  2. And there's no way for us to know how many actual combinations were sold.  In other words, how many tickets sold are owned by multiple people?  The lotteries know, but they ain't tellin'.

But let's assume they've sold 20 million unique combinations.  There's about a 11.43% chance that someone will win the big one.

Besides, that's not the point of my project.  With what I'm doing, there's a 0.1% chance that I'll get a jackpot.  My research aims to figure out how many lower-tier prizes you can get from those 175,000 lines.  It should be easy enough to determine the odds of winning each of those prizes, but I want to see how much money you can get back from your initial investment.

 combination size             5
 basic pool size              56
 (B) Bonus pool size          46
 smallest match no (B) number 3
 largest match with bonus     5
 smallest match with bonus    0
 tickets or chances per draw  175000
 possible combos of 5/56 + 1/46 numbers = 175711536
 MATCH    ODDS            WINNING COMBOS  ODDS 175000 CHANCES  EXPECT MATCHES
 5/5+B   1 : 175711536      1              1 : 1004                    0.00
 5/5+0   1 : 3904701        45             1 : 22                      0.04
 4/5+B   1 : 689065         255            1 : 4                        0.25
 4/5+0   1 : 15313          11475          1 : 0                      11.43
 3/5+B   1 : 13781          12750          1 : 0                      12.70
 3/5+0   1 : 306            573750         1 : 0                     571.43
 2/5+B   1 : 844            208250         1 : 0                     207.41
 1/5+B   1 : 141            1249500        1 : 0                     1244.44
 0/5+B   1 : 75             2349060        1 : 0                    2339.55
 ______________________________________________________________________________
 overall odds are 1 : 39.8            4387.2 total expected wins
  4405086 winning combos = 2.5 % of possible

Odds aren't very good of getting a 4/5 +1 with 175000 lines.

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
             Evil Looking       

    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
    Zeta Reticuli Star System
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    Posted: March 18, 2012, 6:27 pm - IP Logged

    KY Floyd,

    "My "fraction theory" is that selling 17.5 million tickets (all with a unique combination) results in odds of 17,500,000 in 175,000,000 or 1 in 10 that there will be a winner. You seem to be saying that if I'm right a winner would be a 100% certainty."

    No, I'm saying the same fraction should be reflected in the number of combinations covered over the number of combinations not covered. So I don't think 17,500,00 over 157,500,000 = 10%, or is hardly 1 in 10.

    As for 100% certainty, no such thing exists in any form of gambling. People were taking out loans to bet mile Tyson even when the odds on him were -  (minus)1500 to 100, then here came Buster Douglas. The bookies loved that one.

    Aust,

    Well said.

    RJOh,

    Thanks for the chart.

    Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

    Lep

    There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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      NY
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      Posted: March 19, 2012, 1:54 am - IP Logged

      KY Floyd,

      "My "fraction theory" is that selling 17.5 million tickets (all with a unique combination) results in odds of 17,500,000 in 175,000,000 or 1 in 10 that there will be a winner. You seem to be saying that if I'm right a winner would be a 100% certainty."

      No, I'm saying the same fraction should be reflected in the number of combinations covered over the number of combinations not covered. So I don't think 17,500,00 over 157,500,000 = 10%, or is hardly 1 in 10.

      As for 100% certainty, no such thing exists in any form of gambling. People were taking out loans to bet mile Tyson even when the odds on him were -  (minus)1500 to 100, then here came Buster Douglas. The bookies loved that one.

      Aust,

      Well said.

      RJOh,

      Thanks for the chart.

      That you're claiming that 17,500,000 isn't 10% of 175,000,000 is absolutely amazing, but of course you wouldn't think that. It's correct, and that's just not your style.

      1 in 10 is 1 winner in 10 total possibilities, or 1 winner to 9 losers. Maybe you should try dividing 157,500,000 by 17,500,000 and see what you get.

        truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
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        Posted: March 19, 2012, 2:50 pm - IP Logged

        This thread reminds me of this video!

         

          Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
          Zeta Reticuli Star System
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          Posted: March 19, 2012, 6:22 pm - IP Logged

          That you're claiming that 17,500,000 isn't 10% of 175,000,000 is absolutely amazing, but of course you wouldn't think that. It's correct, and that's just not your style.

          1 in 10 is 1 winner in 10 total possibilities, or 1 winner to 9 losers. Maybe you should try dividing 157,500,000 by 17,500,000 and see what you get.

          Sure the math sounds right Floyd, but in the grand scheme of lotto it's just hype.

          Everyday people beat 100 to 1 odds in Pick 3 and 10,000 to 1 odds in Pick 4. So since you've whittled down Mega Millioins to 10 to 1 (once upon a time) where are the payouts? Reversing the 17,500,000 tickets we could cut it down Pick 3 or Pick 4 odds, oh where oh where can the jackpots be?

          Here's some more dazzling math for you, from an old Abbott and Costello routine.

          You are 40 and your niece is 10. You are four times older than she is.

          Five years go by.

          You are now 45 and she is 15, you are three times older than she is.

          Another five years go by.

          You are 50 and she is 20. You are two and a half times older than she is.

          Ten years pass.

          You are 60 and she is 30, you are two times older than her.

          So how many years will have to pass before you and your niece are the same age?

          Scared

          _________________________________________________________

          truecritic

          I'm on dial up and can't see what you posted, Sorry if it was the above.

          Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

          Lep

          There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

            SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
            Economy class
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            February 27, 2012
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            Posted: March 19, 2012, 7:50 pm - IP Logged

            Sure the math sounds right Floyd, but in the grand scheme of lotto it's just hype.

            Everyday people beat 100 to 1 odds in Pick 3 and 10,000 to 1 odds in Pick 4. So since you've whittled down Mega Millioins to 10 to 1 (once upon a time) where are the payouts? Reversing the 17,500,000 tickets we could cut it down Pick 3 or Pick 4 odds, oh where oh where can the jackpots be?

            Here's some more dazzling math for you, from an old Abbott and Costello routine.

            You are 40 and your niece is 10. You are four times older than she is.

            Five years go by.

            You are now 45 and she is 15, you are three times older than she is.

            Another five years go by.

            You are 50 and she is 20. You are two and a half times older than she is.

            Ten years pass.

            You are 60 and she is 30, you are two times older than her.

            So how many years will have to pass before you and your niece are the same age?

            Scared

            _________________________________________________________

            truecritic

            I'm on dial up and can't see what you posted, Sorry if it was the above.

            Answer: infinity, but you can't reach that. Conehead

              RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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              Posted: March 19, 2012, 9:29 pm - IP Logged

              RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

              No matter how many chances are bought ech and everyone of those chances are up against the same odds......unless they are drawing more than one set of winning numbers.

              Medibrat,

              There was a thread similar to this about six years ago, but the gist of that thread was "cutting the odds in half".  Much of the discussion was at odds of 175M to 1, a second dollar played would reduce them to 87.5M to 1, same discussion as this. But some of those proposing that said that the second dollar eliminated 87.5M combinations, reduucing the field of sets of numbers not covered by half. "Once upon a time....." (IIf only players could really do that.

              KY Floyd,

              OK, for your fraction theory let's consider this. Imagine every ticket played for any particular drawing as one massive lottery pool. How many tickets played would that be, and applying your fraction theory to those tickets played, heck someone would have to win, no? And what about a pumped up jackpot and over 175,000,000 tickets played. Your theory would make it absolutely amazing when there was no winner on such a draw.

              But of the two MM and PB drawings a week for 52 weeks, year in and year out only about 12 to 15 of those for each game produce a jackpot. That is a fact, everything else discussed here is flawed theory.

              If all tickets were part of one massive pool the Floyd Fractionalized Fantasy would work and there'd be a lot more jackpots paid. (Actually, to the lottery, they are kind of one massive pool, it's a payout or no payout situation).

              PS Floyd,

              I think Don Caitlin's book is still in the bookstore. you might want to read it. The intro is a story about a winner and the nest chapter or so is about how lotteries are created and how the odds are determined. It's not quite the way the system peddlers and others want the players to think.

              CT


              Let me see, hmmmm. So if the lottery drew two sets per drawing it would be better then buying

              two tickets for a single draw.   Thanks for the heads up.

              Party

              Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

              I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

              they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

              USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                Avatar
                NH
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                Posted: March 19, 2012, 9:37 pm - IP Logged

                The mystical side of me says that the numbers find you. So know need to play more than one line of numbers. Blue Angel

                  haymaker's avatar - Lottery-012.jpg
                  Egg Harbor twp.south Jersey shore
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                  Posted: March 19, 2012, 10:43 pm - IP Logged

                  RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

                  No matter how many chances are bought ech and everyone of those chances are up against the same odds......unless they are drawing more than one set of winning numbers.

                  Medibrat,

                  There was a thread similar to this about six years ago, but the gist of that thread was "cutting the odds in half".  Much of the discussion was at odds of 175M to 1, a second dollar played would reduce them to 87.5M to 1, same discussion as this. But some of those proposing that said that the second dollar eliminated 87.5M combinations, reduucing the field of sets of numbers not covered by half. "Once upon a time....." (IIf only players could really do that.

                  KY Floyd,

                  OK, for your fraction theory let's consider this. Imagine every ticket played for any particular drawing as one massive lottery pool. How many tickets played would that be, and applying your fraction theory to those tickets played, heck someone would have to win, no? And what about a pumped up jackpot and over 175,000,000 tickets played. Your theory would make it absolutely amazing when there was no winner on such a draw.

                  But of the two MM and PB drawings a week for 52 weeks, year in and year out only about 12 to 15 of those for each game produce a jackpot. That is a fact, everything else discussed here is flawed theory.

                  If all tickets were part of one massive pool the Floyd Fractionalized Fantasy would work and there'd be a lot more jackpots paid. (Actually, to the lottery, they are kind of one massive pool, it's a payout or no payout situation).

                  PS Floyd,

                  I think Don Caitlin's book is still in the bookstore. you might want to read it. The intro is a story about a winner and the nest chapter or so is about how lotteries are created and how the odds are determined. It's not quite the way the system peddlers and others want the players to think.

                  CoinToss, i ordered caitlin's book online,after looking at one of those "look in side" pages,

                  now i know where the phrase "curioserer and curioserer" (hope i spelled right) comes from.

                  thanks.

                  Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds    -- Charles Mackay  LL.D.

                    rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                    Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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                    Posted: March 19, 2012, 10:53 pm - IP Logged

                    CoinToss, i ordered caitlin's book online,after looking at one of those "look in side" pages,

                    now i know where the phrase "curioserer and curioserer" (hope i spelled right) comes from.

                    thanks.

                    Curiouser and curiouser.

                    Actually, I think it came from Alice in Wonderland.

                    Don't ask me how I know that because I've never read the book or seen the movie or cartoon or whatever it was.

                    But I heard it was good.


                                                                 
                                         
                                                             

                     

                     

                     

                     

                                                                                                                       

                    "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                                --Edmund Burke

                     

                     

                      haymaker's avatar - Lottery-012.jpg
                      Egg Harbor twp.south Jersey shore
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                      Posted: March 19, 2012, 11:04 pm - IP Logged

                      Curiouser and curiouser.

                      Actually, I think it came from Alice in Wonderland.

                      Don't ask me how I know that because I've never read the book or seen the movie or cartoon or whatever it was.

                      But I heard it was good.

                      OK funny how that stuff goes,i think i seen it in one of your posts, few weeks ago,

                      now can't remember,the good old stuff lives on,

                      and the source becomes harder to figure Cheers

                      Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds    -- Charles Mackay  LL.D.

                        maximumfun's avatar - Lottery-030.jpg
                        Lavender Rocket

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                        Posted: March 19, 2012, 11:13 pm - IP Logged

                        42.  the answer is 42.

                          Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                          Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                          Posted: March 20, 2012, 12:16 am - IP Logged

                          42.  the answer is 42.

                          Of all numbers, Scared

                          42- Seriously unlucky...4 is the Aisan 13, and in Japanese, 42 is "shi ni", which menas "you die". There was once a car 42 ih A Japanese auto race and the story is that the car, and driver, vanished during the race- onlly to be clocked in on the anniversary of that race as several officcails swore they saw a car 42. There has not been another 42 in a Japanese race since.

                          Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                          Lep

                          There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                            maximumfun's avatar - Lottery-030.jpg
                            Lavender Rocket

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                            Posted: March 20, 2012, 3:30 pm - IP Logged

                            Of all numbers, Scared

                            42- Seriously unlucky...4 is the Aisan 13, and in Japanese, 42 is "shi ni", which menas "you die". There was once a car 42 ih A Japanese auto race and the story is that the car, and driver, vanished during the race- onlly to be clocked in on the anniversary of that race as several officcails swore they saw a car 42. There has not been another 42 in a Japanese race since.

                            Yikes!  I guess Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy didn't go for those meanings when they determined that 42 was the answer to the ultimate question of 'life, the universe, and everything'.

                              maximumfun's avatar - Lottery-030.jpg
                              Lavender Rocket

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                              Posted: March 20, 2012, 6:08 pm - IP Logged

                              Truecritic - that youtube "The real meaning of MPH" had me laughing till i cried.  I shared it with family and friends and my dh commented that 'he knew what it felt like to be a trophy spouse, and to be appreciated for looks instead of brains' **lol** - that really had everyone laughing as he huffed and puffed about not being appreciated in his own time.  Green laugh

                                 
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