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Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

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Posted: February 14, 2013, 12:39 pm - IP Logged

Ronnie316,

If you're going to comment on my critique of Stack47's post, the least you could do is PRETEND that you read more than one of the points contained in it.  What I had hoped is you would have accepted the challenge of making the associations between the key numbers in the C(5,2) Lotto game and the real world C(56,5).  You chose to ignore it completely.

You and Stack47 keep saying that you already know everything that I post here, but you have provided very little evidence that this is true.  You also keep saying that I have disrupted your team effort to find a way to "discard" 28 numbers from a field of 56 that leaves you with a higher probability of matching 5 of them with the Lottery Draw.  I would think that If this really was your goal you would welcome any input you could get.

Why wouldn't you be interested in whether or not your goal is impossible to achieve?  If you find convincing evidence it's impossible to increase your chances of winning a Jackpot with this method, you could move on to investigate other ideas.

I think you KNOW that if you select your 28 numbers randomly, your probability of correctly choosing the 5 winners is the SAME as it is when you select 5 from the full set of 56, precisely as you see it is in the C(5,2) game.  So what you do is drag out your trusty Gambler's Fallacy and "discard" the balls that have been appearing recently, HOPING that the ones remaining are DUE.  But you get discouraged when you find that the HOT HAND FALLACY often prevails when the HOT balls STAY HOT!

So, what you really should be doing here is trying to PROVE that the Gambler's Fallacy and the Hot Hand Fallacy are not really fallacies in Lotto.  You can do this by simulating your method against a databse of all the winning draws of a game like the (56,5) White Balls of the Powerball.  Try different "Look-Back" periods, stepping your way through the data until you find one that results in a winning ROI over the entire run.  This is the way Market Timing Systems are devised for the Stock Market.  If you can't find a Look-Back period that's a winner, you will be forced to Reject your Hypothesis and move on to greener pastures.  If you find one, you can look for financial backers and start planning for retirement! 

So I don't post something else that you already know, I'll ask first.  Do you know the probability of finding 2, 3, 4, and 5 matches AMONG the 28 you choose before the draw?

--Jimmy4164

Ronni316,

"Hey Jimmy, Ive try to be nice to you in spite of the fact that your nothing but a troll on LP. Just because you post something does NOT mean that I'm required to read it..........

"You are nothing but a huge ass to demand that I pretend to  do this or that...... NO I did NOT finish the first sentence of what you posted (on this and most others) because I or no one else cares what you are posting or what you have to say................. 

"Was this post long enough for you?"

For someone who claims they don't approve of dissent in this thread, you sure go out of your way to respond to the dissenters' posts and make references to them when they tire of you and stay away.  I doubt if you and Stack47 alone could have racked up the number of views I see for this thread.  Where do you think all these views are coming from?

I'll try again.  Do you REALLY want to know the value of selecting your sets of 5 Megamillions picks from subsets of 28, OR NOT?  If you do, you should pay attention to what I'm saying, because time is precious, and if I'm correct, you are wasting your time.

In my last post (above) I asked you if you knew the probability of finding matches between the lottery's 5 picks and your 28.  You apparently don't think this question is worthy of an answer.  However, [I know it's repetitious, but,] if your REALLY want to know the value of your method, you REALLY should want to know the answer to this question. 

Why?  Because when the Lottery draws 5 numbers and you compare them to the 28 you selected before the draw, you are elated when you discover 3 or more of them among your 28. Your reaction is as if you made these matches by only picking 5.  So, youMUST be curious about what the likelihood is of these matches.  If you're not, you definitely should be.

I'm not going to do it for you, since you would reject whatever I would post.  But this shouldn't be a problem because you claim you ALREADY KNOW everything I post, so I can assume you know how to do the calculations.

The problem is simple, kind of like Keno.  You randomly select 28 numbers from 56 and the Lottery randomly selects 5 numbers from 56.

What is the probability that One(1) of the Lottery's 5 picks is among your 28?

Two(2), Three(3), Four(4), Five(5)?

Once we know these values, we will know how we should react when you match 3, 4, and even 5!  Should we celebrate - or fall asleep?

--Jimmy4164

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    lima ohio
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    Posted: February 14, 2013, 12:41 pm - IP Logged

    Hi Jimmy............... for the next powerball drawing I can predict the next powerball number I am right 75% of the time. I been studying everyone post on here for the last 2 weeks.....03 or 42

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
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      Posted: February 14, 2013, 1:23 pm - IP Logged

      Ronni316,

      "Hey Jimmy, Ive try to be nice to you in spite of the fact that your nothing but a troll on LP. Just because you post something does NOT mean that I'm required to read it..........

      "You are nothing but a huge ass to demand that I pretend to  do this or that...... NO I did NOT finish the first sentence of what you posted (on this and most others) because I or no one else cares what you are posting or what you have to say................. 

      "Was this post long enough for you?"

      For someone who claims they don't approve of dissent in this thread, you sure go out of your way to respond to the dissenters' posts and make references to them when they tire of you and stay away.  I doubt if you and Stack47 alone could have racked up the number of views I see for this thread.  Where do you think all these views are coming from?

      I'll try again.  Do you REALLY want to know the value of selecting your sets of 5 Megamillions picks from subsets of 28, OR NOT?  If you do, you should pay attention to what I'm saying, because time is precious, and if I'm correct, you are wasting your time.

      In my last post (above) I asked you if you knew the probability of finding matches between the lottery's 5 picks and your 28.  You apparently don't think this question is worthy of an answer.  However, [I know it's repetitious, but,] if your REALLY want to know the value of your method, you REALLY should want to know the answer to this question. 

      Why?  Because when the Lottery draws 5 numbers and you compare them to the 28 you selected before the draw, you are elated when you discover 3 or more of them among your 28. Your reaction is as if you made these matches by only picking 5.  So, youMUST be curious about what the likelihood is of these matches.  If you're not, you definitely should be.

      I'm not going to do it for you, since you would reject whatever I would post.  But this shouldn't be a problem because you claim you ALREADY KNOW everything I post, so I can assume you know how to do the calculations.

      The problem is simple, kind of like Keno.  You randomly select 28 numbers from 56 and the Lottery randomly selects 5 numbers from 56.

      What is the probability that One(1) of the Lottery's 5 picks is among your 28?

      Two(2), Three(3), Four(4), Five(5)?

      Once we know these values, we will know how we should react when you match 3, 4, and even 5!  Should we celebrate - or fall asleep?

      --Jimmy4164

      "What is the probability that One(1) of the Lottery's 5 picks is among your 28?

      Two(2), Three(3), Four(4), Five(5)?"

      With all the free lottery odds calculator on the Internet, that probably has been calculated many times.  Besides, every serious lottery player has one in his tool box as I do.  You just calculate the odds of matching five of fifty-six with 98,280 lines.

      I think I saw those results posted earlier in this thread.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       


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        Posted: February 14, 2013, 2:12 pm - IP Logged

        Hey Jimmy, Ive try to be nice to you in spite of the fact that your nothing but a troll on LP. Just because you post something does NOT mean that I'm required to read it..........

        You are nothing but a huge ass to demand that I pretend to  do this or that...... NO I did NOT finish the first sentence of what you posted (on this and most others) because I or no one else cares what you are posting or what you have to say................. 

        Was this post long enough for you?

        I think Jimmy is just jealous of people like Gail Howard, who have developed bonafide systems.

        Personally in my opinion the only way to get rid of a nuisance is to not respond to them. 

        However much I would love to read catlin book, and the other 273 posted articles by "scholars" provided by those proselytizing, I just dont have the time.

        I prefer to not be "mired" with useless information that does not help me to win, but use what little time I have to do a thorough analysis of my game, and not read about statistics and probability.

        I chose to not major in "statistics" or "probability" in college, and therefore I do not chose to run to probability and statistical articles by self professed gurus.

        If we want to talk odds then we should discuss the Fundamental Formula of Gambling and the following chart.

        But oh yeah, as one of the stooges professed, Ion Saliu is another snake oil salesman.  I wonder why Jimmy is here when the stooges believe all Lottery People are fools and snakeoil people. (I wonder if Jimmy feels that way about Todd too)

        Here is the chart from "Socrates" website. (just scroll down a little)

        Run the best software in its class, including probability, Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG), degree of certainty. Run the best software in its class, including probability, Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG), degree of certainty. http://saliu.com/Saliu2.htm

        There is no cure for emphatic, pathological, obsessive, pontificating jealousy.

        Jimmy just curious, have you read the Lottery Master Guide by Gail Howard? or is catlins book your bible?

        And Jimmy, also curious, what are your TRUE feelings about Todd?

        I shouldn't even be responding to you, because I have blocked your dumb toxic ass, so I wont be able to see your pontificating reply anyway.

        Why dont you take the example of the pontificating paedophile priest protecting padre, and just RESIGN.


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          Posted: February 14, 2013, 2:47 pm - IP Logged

          "What is the probability that One(1) of the Lottery's 5 picks is among your 28?

          Two(2), Three(3), Four(4), Five(5)?"

          With all the free lottery odds calculator on the Internet, that probably has been calculated many times.  Besides, every serious lottery player has one in his tool box as I do.  You just calculate the odds of matching five of fifty-six with 98,280 lines.

          I think I saw those results posted earlier in this thread.

          Could you please post the probabilities for matching 1 through 5  of 5 (of 56) with 28 (of 56) ?

            rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
            Texas
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            Posted: February 14, 2013, 3:03 pm - IP Logged

            I have heard numerous complaints about the content/message that Jimmy and Boney bring to this thread.

            Is there ANYONE who thinks their repeated message is still a relevant part of this discussion?

            Not only no, but hell no.

            The three stooges have taken a good discussion about ways to reduce the odds and hijacked the thread.

            Jimmy, nobody, NOBODY on this thread is interested in anything you have to say except your 2 buddies.

            How about you start your own thread jimmy. Be interesting to see how long it lasts.

            CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

            A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)


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              Posted: February 14, 2013, 3:12 pm - IP Logged

              Hi Jimmy............... for the next powerball drawing I can predict the next powerball number I am right 75% of the time. I been studying everyone post on here for the last 2 weeks.....03 or 42

              Gopher07,

              Since you made a reference to 2 weeks above, I must ask over how many draws have you concluded your success rate is 75% ?

              And is this 75% number based upon one pick per draw, or 2, as above, or more?

              Since there are 46 possibilities, playing 1 ticket per draw, or 2 per week, I only expect to pick the Megaball correctly about twice per year.  So if you pick the Megaball 78 times out of 104 over a year, you are a poster child for The Black Swan!

              If I buy 2 Megamillions tickets today and one of them happens to have the correct Megaball, what would you say if I decided to start keeping score today and told you I have a 50% success rate?

              --Jimmy4164 


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                Posted: February 14, 2013, 6:51 pm - IP Logged

                Gopher07,

                Since you made a reference to 2 weeks above, I must ask over how many draws have you concluded your success rate is 75% ?

                And is this 75% number based upon one pick per draw, or 2, as above, or more?

                Since there are 46 possibilities, playing 1 ticket per draw, or 2 per week, I only expect to pick the Megaball correctly about twice per year.  So if you pick the Megaball 78 times out of 104 over a year, you are a poster child for The Black Swan!

                If I buy 2 Megamillions tickets today and one of them happens to have the correct Megaball, what would you say if I decided to start keeping score today and told you I have a 50% success rate?

                --Jimmy4164 

                There was a time when I only excepted to hit the bonus number twice a year. But since I started this thread I have been hitting about once every 18 draws, which is almost 6 times a year. Am I The Black Swan?


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                  Posted: February 14, 2013, 6:53 pm - IP Logged


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                    Posted: February 14, 2013, 6:54 pm - IP Logged


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                      Posted: February 14, 2013, 6:56 pm - IP Logged


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                        Posted: February 14, 2013, 7:00 pm - IP Logged

                          CajunWin4's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg
                          Whiskey Island
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                          Posted: February 14, 2013, 7:03 pm - IP Logged

                          Get em' , LB

                                      This thread is useless it serves no USE !!! The fact is people who do have verifiable systems , methods or theories careless about this  Thread . They can post this information all day and night it still will not change anyones mind . It does not matter how many screens name these people go under and keep posting and agreeing with them selfs it does not matter to any of US .


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                            Posted: February 14, 2013, 7:16 pm - IP Logged

                            There was a time when I only excepted to hit the bonus number twice a year. But since I started this thread I have been hitting about once every 18 draws, which is almost 6 times a year. Am I The Black Swan?


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                              Posted: February 14, 2013, 7:21 pm - IP Logged

                              I saw that guy at the gas station the other day. I should have asked him to fill a play slip for me What?

                                 
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