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Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

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Kentucky
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Posted: February 16, 2013, 12:13 pm - IP Logged

Any strategy is much better than trying to get lucky with QPs.

I agree Stack. I have seen on the Internet that it has been proven scientifically that a group (or block) of combinations will win with more consistency and regularity than random lines. (as in QPs) Even though the number of wins would even out over time, the random lines tended to be sporadic and unpredictable. 

What I believe is, they only tested set groups and failed to realize that the patterns would be magnified if the random lines were changed out for each set of winning numbers drawn. Like the RNG in a slot machine, you don't get to hit the 1000 to 1 payout after 1000 pulls....... all you get is another 1000 to 1 pull. 

Because groups of lines can be considered self pick there is no need to play by the same rules and change the played lines out every draw. The self pick "group" would need only be changed once a winning match occurs.

Again, I believe the consistent tendencies of the "group" lines would be magnified and give them BETTER ODDS of matching 5 of 5 more often. 

Or am I merely pontificating What?

The test was similar to the one using BobP's example where his 8 lines used each number once compared to a random eight lines that used some numbers 2 or 3 times. The results were exactly the same as saying any group of 28 numbers should match five numbers in the next 39 drawings plus or minus STD DEV. BobP was trying to show the effect of using all 48 numbers on 8 lines; it wasn't an example of playing strategy. How many one number matches the 8 QP lines produced was omitted so we can't question the two number results. Because of cause and effect (2 of the lines in group A could never match a number), the test was comparing 36 numbers randomly distributed on 6 lines to 8 lines of QPs randomly selected from 48 numbers. Out of 42 million trials with a 25% better chance for the QPs of matching six numbers, the test still show a virtual tie for two, three, four, and five number matches too.

The odds we are redundantly being told cannot be beaten are based on the number of prizes any 5 of 56 MM numbers match. Because only 2.5% of all the combinations can match a prize and the randomly distributed QPs are based on all the combinations, there is 97.5% probability the average number of QPs (5) won't match a prize.

We're having this discussion is on website with thousands of daily viewers with the majority checking the daily results so it's obvious the viewers of this thread are lottery players. Does it make more sense to discuss the possibilities of better playing strategies for the same bet trying to win any prize or does it make more sense for the critics to redundantly post the odds when every state lottery website has the overall odds of winning a prize?


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    Posted: February 16, 2013, 2:03 pm - IP Logged

    Another way to get that same information is to such check the last 798 drawings with a group of 28 numbers. When I did with the group 1-28, this was the result.

    01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
    23 24 25 26 27 28

    05/15/12 - 10 11 12 14 24 +06
    03/23/12 - 06 17 19 20 21 +20
    03/20/12 - 01 04 06 11 14 +30
    02/24/12 - 01 16 18 25 27 +03
    02/14/12 - 03 05 10 26 27 +27
    09/17/10 - 03 04 14 18 27 +13
    09/10/10 - 11 12 17 21 23 +20
    06/25/10 - 01 02 13 19 27 +21
    06/15/10 - 04 12 13 21 27 +46
    05/25/10 - 05 14 17 19 24 +25
    07/10/09 - 05 10 26 27 28 +04
    07/03/09 - 05 06 07 11 25 +31
    01/27/09 - 03 11 12 14 21 +25
    01/23/09 - 02 17 20 27 28 +07
    07/04/08 - 01 03 12 19 20 +28
    02/22/08 - 07 12 13 19 22 +10
    04/13/07 - 11 14 21 25 26 +33
    04/10/07 - 07 15 16 19 28 +10
    11/08/05 - 08 16 21 25 27 +16
    09/27/05 - 14 17 26 27 28 +05

    MATCH 0 = 14
    MATCH 1 = 128
    MATCH 2 = 245
    MATCH 3 = 268
    MATCH 4 = 123
    MATCH 5 = 20

    Simply divide those results into 798 drawings

    Thanks RJOh,
     
    It's reassuring to read rational exchanges here about the odds and applications of strategies to actual draw data, as you have done.  This is the way people can ultimately arrive at the true answers to questions about these issues.
     
    While you were looking at the results of playing the first half of the field [1-28] over 798 actual draws, I wrote a little simulator to see the results of varying the subset size, starting with 28.  I was testing the program using hundreds of thousands of draws, but since you have 798 actual result lines, for comparison, I made 3 runs to compare the results of randomly selecting 798 subsets of 28 numbers AND THEN randomly selecting 5 winning numbers, for each draw. Here are the results, and it was much the same no matter what RNG Seed I used.
     
         (Your) 798          798            798               798
                      Actual     Random    Random      Random
                      Draws      Draws(1)   Draws(2)     Draws(3)
    Match 0   14            17              24                 19
    Match 1   128         127            123               123
    Match 2   245         237            241               264
    Match 3   268         273            268               256
    Match 4   123         124            121               119
    Match 5   20           20               21                 17
     
    It appears random subsets from [1..56] produce results similar to subsets restricted to [1..28].  Now it would be interesting to see the results of running the [29-56] subset against your data. Smile
     
    I will report the results of increasing the subset size beyond 28 in a later post.
     
    I hope people are asking themselves what the significance is of matching 5 numbers from a set of 28 with the lottery's 5, given that there is no prize awarded for doing that.
     
    --Jimmy4164

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      Posted: February 16, 2013, 3:02 pm - IP Logged

      The test was similar to the one using BobP's example where his 8 lines used each number once compared to a random eight lines that used some numbers 2 or 3 times. The results were exactly the same as saying any group of 28 numbers should match five numbers in the next 39 drawings plus or minus STD DEV. BobP was trying to show the effect of using all 48 numbers on 8 lines; it wasn't an example of playing strategy. How many one number matches the 8 QP lines produced was omitted so we can't question the two number results. Because of cause and effect (2 of the lines in group A could never match a number), the test was comparing 36 numbers randomly distributed on 6 lines to 8 lines of QPs randomly selected from 48 numbers. Out of 42 million trials with a 25% better chance for the QPs of matching six numbers, the test still show a virtual tie for two, three, four, and five number matches too.

      The odds we are redundantly being told cannot be beaten are based on the number of prizes any 5 of 56 MM numbers match. Because only 2.5% of all the combinations can match a prize and the randomly distributed QPs are based on all the combinations, there is 97.5% probability the average number of QPs (5) won't match a prize.

      We're having this discussion is on website with thousands of daily viewers with the majority checking the daily results so it's obvious the viewers of this thread are lottery players. Does it make more sense to discuss the possibilities of better playing strategies for the same bet trying to win any prize or does it make more sense for the critics to redundantly post the odds when every state lottery website has the overall odds of winning a prize?

      Does it make more sense to discuss the possibilities of better playing strategies

      Yes it does make sense Stack. We are posting on LP where people are looking for creative ways to win no matter how much the critics tell us "it's impossible" Besides, I really don't see the harm in TRYING to find ways to get BETTER ODDS using groups of numbers as apposed to QPs.

      "It's impossible" didn't stop the first transcontinental ocean voyage.

      "It's impossible" didn't stop the Wright Brothers from taking flight.

      "It's impossible" didn't stop men from running a 4 minute mile.

      "It's impossible" didn't stop Isaac Newton from TRYING to turn base metals into gold.

      http://discovermagazine.com/2010/jul-aug/05-isaac-newton-worlds-most-famous-alchemist#.UR_lEqVwecQ


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        Posted: February 16, 2013, 5:38 pm - IP Logged

        This looks like a wheeling system that has filters. 

        http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/257251/2931242


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          Posted: February 16, 2013, 5:46 pm - IP Logged

            jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
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            Posted: February 16, 2013, 6:54 pm - IP Logged

            matched 2 of 5, the numbers are slowly being used up.

            04-06-08-32-36-38-39-40-41-44-46-47-50-51-56

            that leaves the following as still to hit in February.

            04-08-36-40-41-44-46-47-51-56

            good combos to play out or remaining would be:

            04-36-40-41
            04-36-46-47
            08-36-40-41
            08-36-46-47

            Jimmy

            Since posting my following line of 15 I have hit 3 of 5, 2 of 5, and 2 of 5.  I highlited the hits in red.

            04-06-08-32-36-38-39-40-41-44-46-47-50-51-56

            that leaves the following as yet to hit:

            04-08-36-40-46-47-51-56

            It only takes 56 combos to fully cover 5 if 5 of 8 wheel.

            Jimmy


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              Posted: February 16, 2013, 7:05 pm - IP Logged

              Since posting my following line of 15 I have hit 3 of 5, 2 of 5, and 2 of 5.  I highlited the hits in red.

              04-06-08-32-36-38-39-40-41-44-46-47-50-51-56

              that leaves the following as yet to hit:

              04-08-36-40-46-47-51-56

              It only takes 56 combos to fully cover 5 if 5 of 8 wheel.

              Jimmy

              Looks really good Jimmy, the 4 if 4 wheel is only 20 lines.

              Wheel:  Pick 5 Abbreviated 4 if 4 of 8

              Tickets:  20

              Description:  Minimum 4-number match, if 4 numbers drawn fall within your set of 8 numbers.

              Input:  4, 8, 36, 40, 46, 47, 51, 56

              1. 04-08-36-40-51
              2. 04-08-36-40-56
              3. 04-08-36-46-47
              4. 04-08-40-46-51
              5. 04-08-40-46-56
              6. 04-08-40-47-51
              7. 04-08-40-47-56
              8. 04-08-40-51-56
              9. 04-36-40-46-47
              10. 04-36-46-51-56
              11. 04-36-47-51-56
              12. 04-46-47-51-56
              13. 08-36-40-46-47
              14. 08-36-46-47-51
              15. 08-36-46-47-56
              16. 08-36-47-51-56
              17. 08-40-46-51-56
              18. 36-40-46-47-51
              19. 36-40-46-47-56
              20. 36-40-47-51-56


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                Posted: February 16, 2013, 7:07 pm - IP Logged

                Have a good night everyone. Sleep


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                  Posted: February 16, 2013, 7:29 pm - IP Logged

                  Thanks for the great Nova link.

                  "Are winning numbers fractals?"

                  If they are, then our selections would likely have to be as well.  But then,  what would we have, a battle of the Fractals?  Smile

                  I think it would be better to read this before deciding...

                  http://kmci.org/alllifeisproblemsolving/archives/notes-for-black-swan-ideas-lottery-ticket-and-ludic-fallacies-mandelbrodtian-randomness-gray-swans-and-the-narrative-fallacy/

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                    Burnsville
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                    Posted: February 16, 2013, 9:21 pm - IP Logged

                    Thanks for the link Ronnie316!!! Super nice!!! With what I have been working on and seeing for the three and four,  this has made me push myself even harder now. This has been a nice little push and is appreciated!!!

                    Best of luck to all!!!

                     

                    Edit: Any positive push forward is much appreciated!!!

                    You can't steal second and keep your foot on FIRST!!!

                    “Strength does not come from winning. Your struggles develop your strengths.
                    When you go through hardships and decide not to surrender, that is strength”.

                    -Arnold (Ahnald) Schwarzenegger-


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                      Posted: February 16, 2013, 10:09 pm - IP Logged

                      Congrats to kosmic for getting 3 right in the Maddog thread!

                      Congrats Ronnie for getting 4/28 correct!!! (expensive wheel!)

                      Congrats to gopher for picking the correct mega ball out of two tries!!  Congrats max too!!!

                      Congrats to me for catching that flag formation LDS for digit one!

                      However I forgot to play, as I have been concentrating on my 6/40 heavily and putting some real money down.  So far one wheel of ten bucks netted three bucks. I am happy because I did not meet the wheel guarentee and I still won some coin!

                      Now that is LUCKY!!!

                      I was checking some old tickets from Jan 11 for MM, and I had a 11 13 41 43 44, so that is damgod close!Jester Laugh

                      Still cant find my ticket from tuesday I am very curious to see If i had 3/5 correct, i know i was trying to walk the talk with my LDS ones. 

                      Good luck players!!!

                      I need that SWEET MILLION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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                        Posted: February 17, 2013, 10:59 am - IP Logged

                        Does it make more sense to discuss the possibilities of better playing strategies

                        Yes it does make sense Stack. We are posting on LP where people are looking for creative ways to win no matter how much the critics tell us "it's impossible" Besides, I really don't see the harm in TRYING to find ways to get BETTER ODDS using groups of numbers as apposed to QPs.

                        "It's impossible" didn't stop the first transcontinental ocean voyage.

                        "It's impossible" didn't stop the Wright Brothers from taking flight.

                        "It's impossible" didn't stop men from running a 4 minute mile.

                        "It's impossible" didn't stop Isaac Newton from TRYING to turn base metals into gold.

                        http://discovermagazine.com/2010/jul-aug/05-isaac-newton-worlds-most-famous-alchemist#.UR_lEqVwecQ

                        People buy QPs because they want a piece of the action and a chance at winning millions. I really doubt the majority of them are interested in what they can expect to win by not winning the jackpot and run a Monte Carlo simulation. The mathematicians would have us believing a player who bought 100 tickets on a $300 million jackpot, did it to get 3 to 1 odds of matching 3 numbers and collecting 7 bucks. This discussion isn't about why people play lottery games, but discussion about other ways to play lottery games for those who do.

                        Didn't Thrifty say it's a 50/50 proposition when he buys $5 worth of tickets; he's betting $5 to win millions or will lose $5. Our mathematicians will get out their simulators and tell Thrifty how much he could expect to lose making the same bet 50 million more times ignoring the fact it was just one $5 bet made one time so he can dream about winning millions for a couple of days.

                        "It's impossible" didn't stop the Wright Brothers from taking flight."

                        Wilbur Wright wasn't the first man to fly, but he and Orville saw the potential and designed a plane for controlled flight. Before that flying wasn't much different than throwing a paper plane into the air and hoping it didn't spiral back to earth. While their first flights were controlled, the saw the potential of finding better, easier, and safer ways of controlling man flight.

                        We're not talking about controlling the MM outcomes, but see the potential in controlling our bets. Anyone can figure the probabilities of 28 numbers matching five numbers over extended trials by ignoring the possibilities and potential of multiple five number matches in a short period of time. We're trying to win millions on one jackpot and their trying to make it look like we're trying to win billions by winning every jackpot.

                        Your guess is as good as mine of why anyone would call matching 5 + 1 a failure, but I guess the same people would say the Wright Brothers were failures because their first flight wasn't a trans-continental flight and their second flight wasn't to the Moon and back.

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                          Posted: February 17, 2013, 11:54 am - IP Logged

                          Because the balls are NUMBERED, it is not a random event.

                          If half the balls were RED, and half the balls were BLUE, what would be the odds of getting all red or all blue?

                          Are odds the same for odd/even combinations, because half the balls are odd, and half the balls are even?

                          I have been running a LOTTO649POOL based totally on this question. My opinion ? YES !!! your right, it is not a random event, 

                          Odds of winning Lotto 649 is 1 in 13,983,816 in each draw. Since June 12, 1982 to date, there have been 3,031 draws. I have charted certain combinations and found some combinations come out very frequently and some not at all. I am still able to refine a little. Long story short, this is where I am at now... 33.3% ( 1 in 3 draws ) or better, I can and DO get the last 2 numbers drawn, GUARANTEED, ALWAYS !!!!,


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                            Posted: February 17, 2013, 12:42 pm - IP Logged

                            Thanks for the great Nova link.

                            "Are winning numbers fractals?"

                            If they are, then our selections would likely have to be as well.  But then,  what would we have, a battle of the Fractals?  Smile

                            I think it would be better to read this before deciding...

                            http://kmci.org/alllifeisproblemsolving/archives/notes-for-black-swan-ideas-lottery-ticket-and-ludic-fallacies-mandelbrodtian-randomness-gray-swans-and-the-narrative-fallacy/

                            Stack47 says,

                            "Your guess is as good as mine of why anyone would call matching 5 + 1 a failure, but I guess the same people would say the Wright Brothers were failures because their first flight wasn't a trans-continental flight and their second flight wasn't to the Moon and back."

                            When the Wright brothers looked up into their North Carolina skies, they saw leaves blowing and birds flying, inspirations and unquestionable evidence and support for their dreams.  There has been no credible evidence presented here to support an affirmative answer to the Topic Question.  However, there is a multitude of evidence to the contrary.

                            http://www.nps.gov/wrbr/index.htm 

                            "Wind, sand, and a dream of flight brought Wilbur and Orville Wright to Kitty Hawk, North Carolina where, after four years of experimentation, they achieved the first successful airplane flights in 1903. With courage and perseverance, these self-taught engineers relied on teamwork and application of the scientific process. What they achieved changed our world forever."

                            --Jimmy4164

                            P.S. A649King2B: You'll need QUITE A FEW more draws before your results wil have any significance.


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                              Posted: February 17, 2013, 1:38 pm - IP Logged

                              I have been running a LOTTO649POOL based totally on this question. My opinion ? YES !!! your right, it is not a random event, 

                              Odds of winning Lotto 649 is 1 in 13,983,816 in each draw. Since June 12, 1982 to date, there have been 3,031 draws. I have charted certain combinations and found some combinations come out very frequently and some not at all. I am still able to refine a little. Long story short, this is where I am at now... 33.3% ( 1 in 3 draws ) or better, I can and DO get the last 2 numbers drawn, GUARANTEED, ALWAYS !!!!,

                              Welcome to LP, KING2B!

                              Just curious, how many games do you play per draw, and what wheels do you use?

                                 
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