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Fallacies, and two REAL ways of improving your chances

Topic closed. 215 replies. Last post 4 years ago by Kumo.

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Toronto
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Member #138397
January 26, 2013
179 Posts
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Posted: January 27, 2013, 3:27 am - IP Logged

1 2 3 4 5 6

4 13 21 35 43 47

Can you guess which one is more likely to win the lottery? I think most of you "know" the answer - its the same. Yet how many of you would buy in with choice 1?

I'm sure most players would be more comfortable with a sequence like choice 2 rather than choice 1. Most people "know" the answer, but don't "believe" in it.

 

So that's my intro. For this post, I will address 3 common fallacies people tend to make here, and the only two LEGAL ways to improve your chances to win;

although I do look forward to possible methods that I may have not thought of.

 

 

Fallacy #1:

This is commonly known as the "gambler's fallacy". If you flipped a coin 9 times, and it returned heads every time, what's the probability that the next flip will

be heads?

The answer is 1/2.

Similarly, even if a number in a lottery has not appeared in the last 10 or 20 or 50 draws, it doesn't make it any less or more likely to appear the next draw. The

same can be said of "hot" numbers. Even if a number appeared every time the past 10 draws, that doesn't mean it will also appear in the next draw. There's not

much more to say about this fallacy, but it does bring us to

 

Fallacy #2:

It seems that a lot of people on this forum try to look for patterns from draws, and made various outrageous conclusions, for example saying that if the number

1 appears, then the number 15 will also appear or something to that effect.

This is an outrageous and silly claim. The fact is, draws don't affect each other, and drawing a certain ball will not affect the other balls. This fallacy is kind of like

the gambler's fallacy. Let's flip a coin ten times. Theoretically you'll expect that you'll get heads 5 times, and tails 5 times. But what are the chances of getting

HTHTHTHTHT or THTHTHTHTH? Actually it's 2/2^10, which is 1 in 512. Only once out of 512 tries will you get a perfectly alternating sequence of heads and

tails. Every other time you'll have at least two heads or two tails in a row. In reality, it's very likely to have 3 or 4 heads in a row, or say 7 tails out of 10 flips.

That doesn't make it more likely for you to flip tails, or to flip 4 heads in a row. It's simply statistics. With a small sample size, you're going to get some

inconsistent data, you can't really deduce anything from them. A few hundred or few thousand draws may seem like a lot, but with millions of possiblities in a

lottery draw you can't deduce anything from it. Having 1 and 15 appear multiple times together is just like having 3 or 4 heads in a row. Just because such

things happen doesn't make it more likely to happen.

 

Fallacy #3:

This is the point I really wanted to talk about. Some members of this forum, especially this guy called ronnie something is basically using pseudo math to

confuse others, but most importantly themselves. Honestly such obvious fallacies I'm sure many have addressed already, but seeing so many threads with

similar confusion made by ronnie and others, I felt I really should address it.

Apparently they think they can simply disregard some combinations of numbers, such as a sequence of all even numbers or all odd numbers, or all numbers

under 10 etc. Ronnie said something like 2-4-6-8-10 is less likely to appear simply because they're all even numbers.

This is simply untrue. The fact is, even numbers, odd numbers, prime numbers, pretty numbers, ugly numbers (ya, the last two aren't legit mathematical terms)

are only something humans use to to make life easier. It's like calling a group of objects that people sit on "chair". It's really completely arbitrary. There's no

significance in numbers all being even or odd by themselves.

Sure, if you're picking 6 numbers from 59, its very unlikely that all of the numbers will be under 10 (i.e 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9). That part is true. But the same can

be said of ANY set of 9 numbers, i.e 4,12,14,15,20,35,37,43,51 for example. We put significance in a sequence like 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 because its useful for us

humans in every day life, but for the purpose of a lottery draw, any set of numbers are exactly the same. There's no significance in numbers being odd or even

or pretty or ugly. Like I said in the beginning, 1,2,3,4,5,6 has the same chances of winning as 4,13,21,35,43,47. Don't try to group numbers, use some pseudo

math and convince yourself wrongly that some combinations are less likely to appear than others because all the numbers are prime or start with a 1.

 

 

***

So, with the fallacies addressed, I'll present two REAL ways to actually improve your chances of winning the jackpot, other than buying more tickets, of course.

 

...

Well, that's enough time for excitement, it's time to break your dreams and hopes again.

What are the ways to improve your chances?

1. Don't buy the same ticket more than once. Ya. That's my advice, haha. Sounds stupid, doesn't it? But well it works. you see news of people buying the same

numbers and then winning, but really its not a good strategy. I don't understand why anyone would buy the same ticket twice, lol.

 

2.This point is slightly more interesting. To maximize your chances of winning a jackpot, you should spend your whole lottery allowance on a single draw. Note,

your whole LOTTERY ALLOWANCE, not all your money, lol. NEVER spend more money on the lottery than you can afford. With that said, its better if you bought

52 tickets for a single draw than if you bought 1 ticket per week for a year.

 

Why? Because first of all, we know the expected return is the same. The chances are always 1 in impossibly large number. However, if you buy 1 ticket per

draw, there is a small chance, however small, that you'll win the lottery twice or three times or all 52 times. Ya, I know, dream on. But that chance exists.

If you buy in a single draw, you give up the chance to win the jackpot multiple times in exchange for a slightly higher chance to win the jackpot once.  So if

you're not greedy and only need to win once, then putting all your eggs in one basket might not be a horribly bad idea, although it might hurt more when you

lose, which you probably will.

 

Ya, so the fact is, there isn't a real mathematically sound way to really beat the system. I'm not going to pretend I'm god and that I know everything, because

really, I don't. If god or an alien or your uncle bob told you the winning numbers for next week's draw, great, congratulations. I'm only saying that if you got

your hopes up because of the kind of reasoning I mentioned above, then I'm sorry, they aren't logically sound. Perhaps there's a way to beat the system, but

the kind of thinking above will not get you there.

    savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
    adelaide sa
    Australia
    Member #37136
    April 11, 2006
    3300 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: January 27, 2013, 9:22 am - IP Logged

    if i flip a coin 10 times and 9 times it comes up heads, I will think its biased, and bet heads.

    2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016 JAN = -106; FEB= -81; MAR= -131; APR= - 87: MAY= -91; JUN= -39; JUL=-134; AUG= -124; SEP = -123; OCT= -84  NOV=- 73 TOT= -3498

    keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= JAN=-32, FEB= +12 , MAR= -86, APR = -77. MAY= -48, JUN= -29, JUL=-71; AUG = -52; SEPT= -43; OCT = +56 NOV = -33 TOT= -3297

      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
      Zeta Reticuli Star System
      United States
      Member #30470
      January 17, 2006
      10354 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: January 27, 2013, 10:04 am - IP Logged

      yoho,

      Ther are two factors with all gambling, knowledge of the game and money management.

      What you said,

      "To maximize your chances of winning a jackpot, you should spend your whole lottery allowance on a single draw."

      is not money management. It's called blowing  your wad (br, bankroll) on one decision.

      Also, you're assuming others have a bankroll to play like that.

      Good Luck.

      Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

      Lep

      There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

        rdgrnr's avatar - walt
        Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
        United States
        Member #73904
        April 28, 2009
        14903 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: January 27, 2013, 10:26 am - IP Logged

        1 2 3 4 5 6

        4 13 21 35 43 47

        Can you guess which one is more likely to win the lottery? I think most of you "know" the answer - its the same. Yet how many of you would buy in with choice 1?

        I'm sure most players would be more comfortable with a sequence like choice 2 rather than choice 1. Most people "know" the answer, but don't "believe" in it.

         

        So that's my intro. For this post, I will address 3 common fallacies people tend to make here, and the only two LEGAL ways to improve your chances to win;

        although I do look forward to possible methods that I may have not thought of.

         

         

        Fallacy #1:

        This is commonly known as the "gambler's fallacy". If you flipped a coin 9 times, and it returned heads every time, what's the probability that the next flip will

        be heads?

        The answer is 1/2.

        Similarly, even if a number in a lottery has not appeared in the last 10 or 20 or 50 draws, it doesn't make it any less or more likely to appear the next draw. The

        same can be said of "hot" numbers. Even if a number appeared every time the past 10 draws, that doesn't mean it will also appear in the next draw. There's not

        much more to say about this fallacy, but it does bring us to

         

        Fallacy #2:

        It seems that a lot of people on this forum try to look for patterns from draws, and made various outrageous conclusions, for example saying that if the number

        1 appears, then the number 15 will also appear or something to that effect.

        This is an outrageous and silly claim. The fact is, draws don't affect each other, and drawing a certain ball will not affect the other balls. This fallacy is kind of like

        the gambler's fallacy. Let's flip a coin ten times. Theoretically you'll expect that you'll get heads 5 times, and tails 5 times. But what are the chances of getting

        HTHTHTHTHT or THTHTHTHTH? Actually it's 2/2^10, which is 1 in 512. Only once out of 512 tries will you get a perfectly alternating sequence of heads and

        tails. Every other time you'll have at least two heads or two tails in a row. In reality, it's very likely to have 3 or 4 heads in a row, or say 7 tails out of 10 flips.

        That doesn't make it more likely for you to flip tails, or to flip 4 heads in a row. It's simply statistics. With a small sample size, you're going to get some

        inconsistent data, you can't really deduce anything from them. A few hundred or few thousand draws may seem like a lot, but with millions of possiblities in a

        lottery draw you can't deduce anything from it. Having 1 and 15 appear multiple times together is just like having 3 or 4 heads in a row. Just because such

        things happen doesn't make it more likely to happen.

         

        Fallacy #3:

        This is the point I really wanted to talk about. Some members of this forum, especially this guy called ronnie something is basically using pseudo math to

        confuse others, but most importantly themselves. Honestly such obvious fallacies I'm sure many have addressed already, but seeing so many threads with

        similar confusion made by ronnie and others, I felt I really should address it.

        Apparently they think they can simply disregard some combinations of numbers, such as a sequence of all even numbers or all odd numbers, or all numbers

        under 10 etc. Ronnie said something like 2-4-6-8-10 is less likely to appear simply because they're all even numbers.

        This is simply untrue. The fact is, even numbers, odd numbers, prime numbers, pretty numbers, ugly numbers (ya, the last two aren't legit mathematical terms)

        are only something humans use to to make life easier. It's like calling a group of objects that people sit on "chair". It's really completely arbitrary. There's no

        significance in numbers all being even or odd by themselves.

        Sure, if you're picking 6 numbers from 59, its very unlikely that all of the numbers will be under 10 (i.e 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9). That part is true. But the same can

        be said of ANY set of 9 numbers, i.e 4,12,14,15,20,35,37,43,51 for example. We put significance in a sequence like 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 because its useful for us

        humans in every day life, but for the purpose of a lottery draw, any set of numbers are exactly the same. There's no significance in numbers being odd or even

        or pretty or ugly. Like I said in the beginning, 1,2,3,4,5,6 has the same chances of winning as 4,13,21,35,43,47. Don't try to group numbers, use some pseudo

        math and convince yourself wrongly that some combinations are less likely to appear than others because all the numbers are prime or start with a 1.

         

         

        ***

        So, with the fallacies addressed, I'll present two REAL ways to actually improve your chances of winning the jackpot, other than buying more tickets, of course.

         

        ...

        Well, that's enough time for excitement, it's time to break your dreams and hopes again.

        What are the ways to improve your chances?

        1. Don't buy the same ticket more than once. Ya. That's my advice, haha. Sounds stupid, doesn't it? But well it works. you see news of people buying the same

        numbers and then winning, but really its not a good strategy. I don't understand why anyone would buy the same ticket twice, lol.

         

        2.This point is slightly more interesting. To maximize your chances of winning a jackpot, you should spend your whole lottery allowance on a single draw. Note,

        your whole LOTTERY ALLOWANCE, not all your money, lol. NEVER spend more money on the lottery than you can afford. With that said, its better if you bought

        52 tickets for a single draw than if you bought 1 ticket per week for a year.

         

        Why? Because first of all, we know the expected return is the same. The chances are always 1 in impossibly large number. However, if you buy 1 ticket per

        draw, there is a small chance, however small, that you'll win the lottery twice or three times or all 52 times. Ya, I know, dream on. But that chance exists.

        If you buy in a single draw, you give up the chance to win the jackpot multiple times in exchange for a slightly higher chance to win the jackpot once.  So if

        you're not greedy and only need to win once, then putting all your eggs in one basket might not be a horribly bad idea, although it might hurt more when you

        lose, which you probably will.

         

        Ya, so the fact is, there isn't a real mathematically sound way to really beat the system. I'm not going to pretend I'm god and that I know everything, because

        really, I don't. If god or an alien or your uncle bob told you the winning numbers for next week's draw, great, congratulations. I'm only saying that if you got

        your hopes up because of the kind of reasoning I mentioned above, then I'm sorry, they aren't logically sound. Perhaps there's a way to beat the system, but

        the kind of thinking above will not get you there.

        Could you post a few of your winning tickets so we can see how well your system works?

        Thanks!

          helpmewin's avatar - dandy
          u$a
          United States
          Member #106665
          February 22, 2011
          19908 Posts
          Online
          Posted: January 27, 2013, 10:49 am - IP Logged

          can you try the Mix & Match LOL

          Let it Snow Snowman

            olplugger's avatar - moon2
            Mechanicsville, VA
            United States
            Member #84145
            December 23, 2009
            1523 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: January 27, 2013, 10:54 am - IP Logged

            Could you post a few of your winning tickets so we can see how well your system works?

            Thanks!

            I Agree!

            "Whatever the human mind can conceive and believe it can achieve."

            Napoleon Hill, Author of "Think & Grow Rich"

                                                                                                                                                   

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
              United States
              Member #9
              March 24, 2001
              19831 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: January 27, 2013, 11:41 am - IP Logged

              "...its better if you bought 52 tickets for a single draw than if you bought 1 ticket per week for a year."

              That's probably true if you're going for a prize with odds of 1:52 of winning, but if you're going for the jackpot 52 tickets don't give you much more of an edge than buying one ticket.  Besides, buying one ticket a week will give you a whole year of dreaming even if you don't win anything.

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

                Avatar

                United States
                Member #135804
                November 29, 2012
                318 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: January 27, 2013, 1:56 pm - IP Logged

                if i flip a coin 10 times and 9 times it comes up heads, I will think its biased, and bet heads.

                Hasty generalization: too small a sample size

                  Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                  Zeta Reticuli Star System
                  United States
                  Member #30470
                  January 17, 2006
                  10354 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: January 27, 2013, 1:57 pm - IP Logged

                  yoho,

                  Granted the

                  1  2  3  4  5  6

                  and

                  4 13 21 35 43 47

                  have the same chance of hitting but by no means do they have the same chance of how many ways the jackpot would be split if they did hit.

                  Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                  Lep

                  There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                    Avatar
                    Toronto
                    Canada
                    Member #138397
                    January 26, 2013
                    179 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: January 27, 2013, 3:39 pm - IP Logged

                    To address some of the questions you guys arised:

                     

                    #1:

                    If you flipped a coin, and it returned heads, would you say the coin is biased? It's 100% heads! What if you flipped it two times and they both returned heads? 3?

                     

                    What you said is absolutely valid, and you may assume that if you wish. But if you had knowledge that the coin was at least intended to be made as fair as possible, 

                    like the weight on each side is exactly the same, and the flip is completely randomized etc, then at what point does that assumption hold its reasonableness?

                    1 throw? 2 throws? 10 throws? 100 throws? 

                     

                    Actually there is statistics theories that deal with this, but it is, I believe, slightly higher level of mathematics than most can handle. But the basic idea, is that obviously

                    the more trials you had, the more accurate your predictions. But as I said, for lotteries with tens of millions of possibilities, a few hundred trials is not nearly enough.

                     

                    #2, #3:

                    You misinterpreted my point. I'm not telling you to go blow all your money on a single lottery. I even pointed out that it would probably bring more sadness than

                    if you rationed it out. I'm simply saying that if you wanted to maximize your chances for winning the lottery ONCE, playing it at one time would be the most 

                    optimal way. As soon as you buy tickets the second time, you're not playing optimally (again, assuming you don't care for winning the jackpot multiple times). 

                    This is not to say that its the most optimal choice for EVERY SITUATION/CONSIDERATION. Indeed, I also mentioned that you cannot beat the lottery, and that no

                    matter how you play, the total expected outcome is the same.

                     

                    Furthermore, I pointed out that you should only spend what you can afford on the lottery, so I don't think I'm telling people to mismanage money.

                     

                    If you really asked me for a "system", I'd tell you to save your money for the occasional draw that you'll be happy with. 

                    For example, if you had determined that you wanted to spend 5 bucks on the lottery per week, instead of spending it every week, save it up until you see a draw

                    you like. Let's say you think a 15 million jackpot would set you for life. Then perhaps enter when the jackpot is 30 million, so that even if you share with 1 other

                    person you can still get a satisfactory amount. This way you're ever so slightly more optimized to win, but you aren't completely blowing it all in one shot.

                     

                    In addition you're learning to save money to boot. NEVER NEVER NEVER "borrow money used for future draws; i.e don't overspend. Ever.

                     

                    In the end, I'm trying to tell you that there is no system that will allow you to win, clearly you didn't even read what I wrote if you're asking me for my winning 

                    tickets. 

                     

                    So that addressed most of the concerns.

                     

                    In regards to coin's most recent point, there's not much I can say. I'm not a psychic, I have no idea what other players/quick picks choose for their numbers.

                    Is 1 2 3 4 5 6 used more or less? I'm not sure. I don't think many people would want to play that, but it does make more sense it's played more than a completely

                    random sequence. Did you read that article on wikipedia where the second prize for some lottery was won like 200 times because the numbers appeared on a

                    future cookie? I simply cannot guess what others would play, and I can do nothing to influence it. I only know that even if I knew some others would share the

                    jackpot with me, that I'd rather share it than win nothing at all.

                      helpmewin's avatar - dandy
                      u$a
                      United States
                      Member #106665
                      February 22, 2011
                      19908 Posts
                      Online
                      Posted: January 27, 2013, 5:51 pm - IP Logged

                      To address some of the questions you guys arised:

                       

                      #1:

                      If you flipped a coin, and it returned heads, would you say the coin is biased? It's 100% heads! What if you flipped it two times and they both returned heads? 3?

                       

                      What you said is absolutely valid, and you may assume that if you wish. But if you had knowledge that the coin was at least intended to be made as fair as possible, 

                      like the weight on each side is exactly the same, and the flip is completely randomized etc, then at what point does that assumption hold its reasonableness?

                      1 throw? 2 throws? 10 throws? 100 throws? 

                       

                      Actually there is statistics theories that deal with this, but it is, I believe, slightly higher level of mathematics than most can handle. But the basic idea, is that obviously

                      the more trials you had, the more accurate your predictions. But as I said, for lotteries with tens of millions of possibilities, a few hundred trials is not nearly enough.

                       

                      #2, #3:

                      You misinterpreted my point. I'm not telling you to go blow all your money on a single lottery. I even pointed out that it would probably bring more sadness than

                      if you rationed it out. I'm simply saying that if you wanted to maximize your chances for winning the lottery ONCE, playing it at one time would be the most 

                      optimal way. As soon as you buy tickets the second time, you're not playing optimally (again, assuming you don't care for winning the jackpot multiple times). 

                      This is not to say that its the most optimal choice for EVERY SITUATION/CONSIDERATION. Indeed, I also mentioned that you cannot beat the lottery, and that no

                      matter how you play, the total expected outcome is the same.

                       

                      Furthermore, I pointed out that you should only spend what you can afford on the lottery, so I don't think I'm telling people to mismanage money.

                       

                      If you really asked me for a "system", I'd tell you to save your money for the occasional draw that you'll be happy with. 

                      For example, if you had determined that you wanted to spend 5 bucks on the lottery per week, instead of spending it every week, save it up until you see a draw

                      you like. Let's say you think a 15 million jackpot would set you for life. Then perhaps enter when the jackpot is 30 million, so that even if you share with 1 other

                      person you can still get a satisfactory amount. This way you're ever so slightly more optimized to win, but you aren't completely blowing it all in one shot.

                       

                      In addition you're learning to save money to boot. NEVER NEVER NEVER "borrow money used for future draws; i.e don't overspend. Ever.

                       

                      In the end, I'm trying to tell you that there is no system that will allow you to win, clearly you didn't even read what I wrote if you're asking me for my winning 

                      tickets. 

                       

                      So that addressed most of the concerns.

                       

                      In regards to coin's most recent point, there's not much I can say. I'm not a psychic, I have no idea what other players/quick picks choose for their numbers.

                      Is 1 2 3 4 5 6 used more or less? I'm not sure. I don't think many people would want to play that, but it does make more sense it's played more than a completely

                      random sequence. Did you read that article on wikipedia where the second prize for some lottery was won like 200 times because the numbers appeared on a

                      future cookie? I simply cannot guess what others would play, and I can do nothing to influence it. I only know that even if I knew some others would share the

                      jackpot with me, that I'd rather share it than win nothing at all.

                       Sorry but if you believe this then your wrong.Yes Nod

                      Let it Snow Snowman

                        Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                        Zeta Reticuli Star System
                        United States
                        Member #30470
                        January 17, 2006
                        10354 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: January 27, 2013, 6:07 pm - IP Logged

                        yoho,

                        It was mentioned here once on LP (or more perhaps) that one of the state lotteries had released information on how many people do in fact play 1  2  3  4  5  6.

                        You would be amazed.

                        Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                        Lep

                        There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                          Avatar
                          Toronto
                          Canada
                          Member #138397
                          January 26, 2013
                          179 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: January 27, 2013, 6:32 pm - IP Logged

                           Sorry but if you believe this then your wrong.Yes Nod

                          If I believe that I'm not a psychic and can't read minds, then I'm wrong?

                           

                          Well, thanks for having so much faith in my abilities Smile

                           

                          @ cointoss: I probably will be, actually I'd be amazed whether it's 0 or 10000000, but do you remember approximately how many it was? I'm quite interested


                            United States
                            Member #128790
                            June 2, 2012
                            5431 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: January 27, 2013, 6:50 pm - IP Logged

                            If I believe that I'm not a psychic and can't read minds, then I'm wrong?

                             

                            Well, thanks for having so much faith in my abilities Smile

                             

                            @ cointoss: I probably will be, actually I'd be amazed whether it's 0 or 10000000, but do you remember approximately how many it was? I'm quite interested

                            I don't remember where i saw this, but in just about every state, there are hundreds or even thousands of people playing 1-2-3-4-5-6. Only if they knew they'd get like a few hundred or a few thousand bucks if they hit the JP. Dumba$$es. At least do some homework on the game you play..DUH !

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                              Kentucky
                              United States
                              Member #32652
                              February 14, 2006
                              7322 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: January 27, 2013, 8:39 pm - IP Logged

                              1 2 3 4 5 6

                              4 13 21 35 43 47

                              Can you guess which one is more likely to win the lottery? I think most of you "know" the answer - its the same. Yet how many of you would buy in with choice 1?

                              I'm sure most players would be more comfortable with a sequence like choice 2 rather than choice 1. Most people "know" the answer, but don't "believe" in it.

                               

                              So that's my intro. For this post, I will address 3 common fallacies people tend to make here, and the only two LEGAL ways to improve your chances to win;

                              although I do look forward to possible methods that I may have not thought of.

                               

                               

                              Fallacy #1:

                              This is commonly known as the "gambler's fallacy". If you flipped a coin 9 times, and it returned heads every time, what's the probability that the next flip will

                              be heads?

                              The answer is 1/2.

                              Similarly, even if a number in a lottery has not appeared in the last 10 or 20 or 50 draws, it doesn't make it any less or more likely to appear the next draw. The

                              same can be said of "hot" numbers. Even if a number appeared every time the past 10 draws, that doesn't mean it will also appear in the next draw. There's not

                              much more to say about this fallacy, but it does bring us to

                               

                              Fallacy #2:

                              It seems that a lot of people on this forum try to look for patterns from draws, and made various outrageous conclusions, for example saying that if the number

                              1 appears, then the number 15 will also appear or something to that effect.

                              This is an outrageous and silly claim. The fact is, draws don't affect each other, and drawing a certain ball will not affect the other balls. This fallacy is kind of like

                              the gambler's fallacy. Let's flip a coin ten times. Theoretically you'll expect that you'll get heads 5 times, and tails 5 times. But what are the chances of getting

                              HTHTHTHTHT or THTHTHTHTH? Actually it's 2/2^10, which is 1 in 512. Only once out of 512 tries will you get a perfectly alternating sequence of heads and

                              tails. Every other time you'll have at least two heads or two tails in a row. In reality, it's very likely to have 3 or 4 heads in a row, or say 7 tails out of 10 flips.

                              That doesn't make it more likely for you to flip tails, or to flip 4 heads in a row. It's simply statistics. With a small sample size, you're going to get some

                              inconsistent data, you can't really deduce anything from them. A few hundred or few thousand draws may seem like a lot, but with millions of possiblities in a

                              lottery draw you can't deduce anything from it. Having 1 and 15 appear multiple times together is just like having 3 or 4 heads in a row. Just because such

                              things happen doesn't make it more likely to happen.

                               

                              Fallacy #3:

                              This is the point I really wanted to talk about. Some members of this forum, especially this guy called ronnie something is basically using pseudo math to

                              confuse others, but most importantly themselves. Honestly such obvious fallacies I'm sure many have addressed already, but seeing so many threads with

                              similar confusion made by ronnie and others, I felt I really should address it.

                              Apparently they think they can simply disregard some combinations of numbers, such as a sequence of all even numbers or all odd numbers, or all numbers

                              under 10 etc. Ronnie said something like 2-4-6-8-10 is less likely to appear simply because they're all even numbers.

                              This is simply untrue. The fact is, even numbers, odd numbers, prime numbers, pretty numbers, ugly numbers (ya, the last two aren't legit mathematical terms)

                              are only something humans use to to make life easier. It's like calling a group of objects that people sit on "chair". It's really completely arbitrary. There's no

                              significance in numbers all being even or odd by themselves.

                              Sure, if you're picking 6 numbers from 59, its very unlikely that all of the numbers will be under 10 (i.e 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9). That part is true. But the same can

                              be said of ANY set of 9 numbers, i.e 4,12,14,15,20,35,37,43,51 for example. We put significance in a sequence like 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 because its useful for us

                              humans in every day life, but for the purpose of a lottery draw, any set of numbers are exactly the same. There's no significance in numbers being odd or even

                              or pretty or ugly. Like I said in the beginning, 1,2,3,4,5,6 has the same chances of winning as 4,13,21,35,43,47. Don't try to group numbers, use some pseudo

                              math and convince yourself wrongly that some combinations are less likely to appear than others because all the numbers are prime or start with a 1.

                               

                               

                              ***

                              So, with the fallacies addressed, I'll present two REAL ways to actually improve your chances of winning the jackpot, other than buying more tickets, of course.

                               

                              ...

                              Well, that's enough time for excitement, it's time to break your dreams and hopes again.

                              What are the ways to improve your chances?

                              1. Don't buy the same ticket more than once. Ya. That's my advice, haha. Sounds stupid, doesn't it? But well it works. you see news of people buying the same

                              numbers and then winning, but really its not a good strategy. I don't understand why anyone would buy the same ticket twice, lol.

                               

                              2.This point is slightly more interesting. To maximize your chances of winning a jackpot, you should spend your whole lottery allowance on a single draw. Note,

                              your whole LOTTERY ALLOWANCE, not all your money, lol. NEVER spend more money on the lottery than you can afford. With that said, its better if you bought

                              52 tickets for a single draw than if you bought 1 ticket per week for a year.

                               

                              Why? Because first of all, we know the expected return is the same. The chances are always 1 in impossibly large number. However, if you buy 1 ticket per

                              draw, there is a small chance, however small, that you'll win the lottery twice or three times or all 52 times. Ya, I know, dream on. But that chance exists.

                              If you buy in a single draw, you give up the chance to win the jackpot multiple times in exchange for a slightly higher chance to win the jackpot once.  So if

                              you're not greedy and only need to win once, then putting all your eggs in one basket might not be a horribly bad idea, although it might hurt more when you

                              lose, which you probably will.

                               

                              Ya, so the fact is, there isn't a real mathematically sound way to really beat the system. I'm not going to pretend I'm god and that I know everything, because

                              really, I don't. If god or an alien or your uncle bob told you the winning numbers for next week's draw, great, congratulations. I'm only saying that if you got

                              your hopes up because of the kind of reasoning I mentioned above, then I'm sorry, they aren't logically sound. Perhaps there's a way to beat the system, but

                              the kind of thinking above will not get you there.

                              "It seems that a lot of people on this forum try to look for patterns from draws, and made various outrageous conclusions, for example saying that if the number"

                              All forms of gambling are based on "if". If I put a green chip in the betting circle on a Blackjack layout and beat the dealer, I'll win $25. Looking for patterns and trends is no different than saying "if my calculations are correct". It's called conditional betting and the player wins IF their conditions are met. 

                              Your once a year QP bet will give you a 1 in 6 chance of having a three number match. A conditional player can guarantee having a three number match if 3 of his 15 numbers match for about the same amount wagered.

                              "Don't buy the same ticket more than once. Ya. That's my advice, haha. Sounds stupid, doesn't it?"

                              I Agree!

                                 
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