Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 8, 2016, 10:44 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Fallacies, and two REAL ways of improving your chances

Topic closed. 215 replies. Last post 4 years ago by Kumo.

Page 3 of 15
54
PrintE-mailLink

United States
Member #93947
July 10, 2010
2180 Posts
Offline
Posted: January 27, 2013, 11:37 pm - IP Logged

I'm predictable?

Don't play dumb, Nancy. I knew from yoyo's first post in this thread calling our members' claims outrageous and silly and specifically addressing Ronnie16 as "confused" that you brought him here.

Let's not kid each other, ok?

It makes absolutely no difference what led yoho to start posting here.

No matter what I might tell you, you would call it a lie.

The fact still remains...

You are evading his rebuttals and mine!

Would you please reply with something logical.

If you can't do that, then give it up.

    Avatar
    Toronto
    Canada
    Member #138397
    January 26, 2013
    179 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: January 27, 2013, 11:37 pm - IP Logged

    I'm predictable?

    Don't play dumb, Nancy. I knew from yoyo's first post in this thread calling our members' claims outrageous and silly and specifically addressing Ronnie16 as "confused" that you brought him here.

    Let's not kid each other, ok?

    If my choice of words hurt you, I am sorry. I don't know who jimmy is, nor do I care. I simply posted this because I really hoped that people were humble enough 

    to listen to logic, since everyone falls for logical fallacies. I myself got tricked by logical fallacies many times during my high school math competition days. I tried to

    point them out in a clear manner, and if people had genuine concerns with my points, I welcome discussion. However, if you come in with the assumption that I am

    a big bad wolf, well, I can't change your feelings. If you already have that kind of bias against me, please, don't waste anymore of your own precious time on a guy

    like me. It's not worth it. I certainly won't be responding to any more of your posts here if you still have that kind of an attitude. It's simply not productive. I don't 

    want to drown out posts from people who have genuine questions and concerns. 

     

    I will delete all my posts that have been addressed to you so far, so people who asked questions can find my answers to them, and discuss things without a strong 

    feeling of enmity clouding our judgements.

     

    I wish you a good day.

     

    EDIT: apparently I can no longer delete my previous posts... can a mod delete them for me please?

      rdgrnr's avatar - walt
      Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
      United States
      Member #73904
      April 28, 2009
      14903 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: January 27, 2013, 11:53 pm - IP Logged

      If my choice of words hurt you, I am sorry. I don't know who jimmy is, nor do I care. I simply posted this because I really hoped that people were humble enough 

      to listen to logic, since everyone falls for logical fallacies. I myself got tricked by logical fallacies many times during my high school math competition days. I tried to

      point them out in a clear manner, and if people had genuine concerns with my points, I welcome discussion. However, if you come in with the assumption that I am

      a big bad wolf, well, I can't change your feelings. If you already have that kind of bias against me, please, don't waste anymore of your own precious time on a guy

      like me. It's not worth it. I certainly won't be responding to any more of your posts here if you still have that kind of an attitude. It's simply not productive. I don't 

      want to drown out posts from people who have genuine questions and concerns. 

       

      I will delete all my posts that have been addressed to you so far, so people who asked questions can find my answers to them, and discuss things without a strong 

      feeling of enmity clouding our judgements.

       

      I wish you a good day.

       

      EDIT: apparently I can no longer delete my previous posts... can a mod delete them for me please?

      Your words hurt me? LMAO!

      You came here and on your 2nd day called all of us silly and outrageous and confused so save your lecture about how to address you for your Queen, ok?

      And the rest of your untested theory?

      Pound it, pal.

        rdgrnr's avatar - walt
        Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
        United States
        Member #73904
        April 28, 2009
        14903 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: January 27, 2013, 11:56 pm - IP Logged

        It makes absolutely no difference what led yoho to start posting here.

        No matter what I might tell you, you would call it a lie.

        The fact still remains...

        You are evading his rebuttals and mine!

        Would you please reply with something logical.

        If you can't do that, then give it up.

        I think you get off on me responding to a geek like you, Nancy.

        So for now I'll refrain, if it's all the same to you.

        Now off to the men's room with you!

        Go on, skedaddle!


          United States
          Member #93947
          July 10, 2010
          2180 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: January 28, 2013, 12:32 am - IP Logged

          I think you get off on me responding to a geek like you, Nancy.

          So for now I'll refrain, if it's all the same to you.

          Now off to the men's room with you!

          Go on, skedaddle!

          rdgrnr?,

          And I thought you had chutzpah -- Oh well...

          Maybe you're up for another challenge, since logic doesn't seem to be your forte tonight.  To help you and others see how difficult it would be to prove or disprove a relationship between members at LP, except maybe for the principal, I offer this as a thought experiment.

          Looking back over many of your posts over quite a while, I notice that you have many and varied interests.  You like to wish people happy birthday, congratulate Maddog Challenge winners, as well as other perfunctory type duties.  You don't contribute systems, although you like to chastise others when they don't.  But what you seem to relish the most is quashing efforts of people like Boney526, yoho, and myself, when we dare to question the wisdom of trying to systematically beat the lottery.  It's quite clear [to me] that you have a strong interest in keeping activity here working smoothly.

          In this post, you will see that the principal at this website claims to run the whole operation on his own.

          http://www.lotterypost.com/news/255227/2862342 

          If this is true, then it seems reasonable to ask whether rdgrnr, Stack47, RJOh, etc, etc, are nothing more than extensions of the man behind the curtain here, his alter-egos, so to speak.  It would definitely be a way to safely express a fascination with multiple personality syndrome.

          So, using methods you think I should use to prove I don't know yoho, convince me that you are NOT a figment of another person's imagination.

          --Jimmy4164

            Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
            Zeta Reticuli Star System
            United States
            Member #30470
            January 17, 2006
            10353 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: January 28, 2013, 12:46 am - IP Logged

            If I believe that I'm not a psychic and can't read minds, then I'm wrong?

             

            Well, thanks for having so much faith in my abilities Smile

             

            @ cointoss: I probably will be, actually I'd be amazed whether it's 0 or 10000000, but do you remember approximately how many it was? I'm quite interested

            yoho,

            Don't have exact numbers but here's one example:

            http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/227388

            ( Note the first two posts especially)

            Here's another example:

            Florida Fantasy 5

            Aug 28 2012

            There were 98 players last night who picked the pedestrian numbers of 1-3-5-7-9, so they'll all share from the Fantasy 5 pool.  Their take?  $1,995.32 each.

            The Florida Lottery's Shelly Safford notes that of the 98 winners, only one was a quick pick.

            "Obviously, a lot of players pick those numbers," she said.

            Nobody has exact stats, but general belief is that because so many players pick birthdays and anniversaries, the numbers 1 through 31 are played more frequently.  So any jackpot with all the numbers 31 and lower is often shared, she notes.

            Safford figures 1-3-5-7-9 is also just a quick way to get a ticket, and that some players have been choosing them for years.  It's likely the second-most picked sequence, behind 1-2-3-4-5, which has never hit, she notes.

            http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/227388

            If you do a search (here on LP) for "Playing 1 2 3 4 5 6" you'll find some more interesting stuff.

            Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

            Lep

            There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

              rdgrnr's avatar - walt
              Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
              United States
              Member #73904
              April 28, 2009
              14903 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: January 28, 2013, 12:46 am - IP Logged

              rdgrnr?,

              And I thought you had chutzpah -- Oh well...

              Maybe you're up for another challenge, since logic doesn't seem to be your forte tonight.  To help you and others see how difficult it would be to prove or disprove a relationship between members at LP, except maybe for the principal, I offer this as a thought experiment.

              Looking back over many of your posts over quite a while, I notice that you have many and varied interests.  You like to wish people happy birthday, congratulate Maddog Challenge winners, as well as other perfunctory type duties.  You don't contribute systems, although you like to chastise others when they don't.  But what you seem to relish the most is quashing efforts of people like Boney526, yoho, and myself, when we dare to question the wisdom of trying to systematically beat the lottery.  It's quite clear [to me] that you have a strong interest in keeping activity here working smoothly.

              In this post, you will see that the principal at this website claims to run the whole operation on his own.

              http://www.lotterypost.com/news/255227/2862342 

              If this is true, then it seems reasonable to ask whether rdgrnr, Stack47, RJOh, etc, etc, are nothing more than extensions of the man behind the curtain here, his alter-egos, so to speak.  It would definitely be a way to safely express a fascination with multiple personality syndrome.

              So, using methods you think I should use to prove I don't know yoho, convince me that you are NOT a figment of another person's imagination.

              --Jimmy4164

              LOL, that's rich, that's really, really rich.

              So you think I'm a straw man?

              Heh,heh,heh,heh,heh...

              Utterly ridiculous.

              And I've never had a problem with Boney, we get along famously.

              But you should tell your buddy yoyo not to be so hostile to people he doesn't even know yet right out of the gate.

              That's very rude.

                Avatar
                Toronto
                Canada
                Member #138397
                January 26, 2013
                179 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: January 28, 2013, 12:59 am - IP Logged

                yoho,

                Don't have exact numbers but here's one example:

                http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/227388

                ( Note the first two posts especially)

                Here's another example:

                Florida Fantasy 5

                Aug 28 2012

                There were 98 players last night who picked the pedestrian numbers of 1-3-5-7-9, so they'll all share from the Fantasy 5 pool.  Their take?  $1,995.32 each.

                The Florida Lottery's Shelly Safford notes that of the 98 winners, only one was a quick pick.

                "Obviously, a lot of players pick those numbers," she said.

                Nobody has exact stats, but general belief is that because so many players pick birthdays and anniversaries, the numbers 1 through 31 are played more frequently.  So any jackpot with all the numbers 31 and lower is often shared, she notes.

                Safford figures 1-3-5-7-9 is also just a quick way to get a ticket, and that some players have been choosing them for years.  It's likely the second-most picked sequence, behind 1-2-3-4-5, which has never hit, she notes.

                http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/227388

                If you do a search (here on LP) for "Playing 1 2 3 4 5 6" you'll find some more interesting stuff.

                oo Thanks. Frankly I'm more surprised that there are so many people who only picked 4 numbers of 1 2 3 4 5 in that... If you already picked four, why not just go

                all the way? lol

                  jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                  Park City, UT
                  United States
                  Member #69864
                  January 18, 2009
                  993 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: January 28, 2013, 4:53 am - IP Logged

                  What I find hilarious is that Jimmy4164 the defender of fallacies is letting you get away with your two REAL ways of improving your chances.

                  1. Don't buy the same ticket more than once.
                  2. To maximize your chances of winning a jackpot you should spend your whole lottery allowance on a single draw.

                  There is nothing mathematically rigourous about your 2 statements as you claim, they are simply as fallacious and misleading as any other statements made here.  Neither of your two strategies has mathematically improved a persons chances of winning.

                  There is a very long thread started by JadeLottery that goes into details concerning your fallacious statement #2.

                  Jimmy

                    Avatar
                    Toronto
                    Canada
                    Member #138397
                    January 26, 2013
                    179 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: January 28, 2013, 5:21 am - IP Logged

                    What I find hilarious is that Jimmy4164 the defender of fallacies is letting you get away with your two REAL ways of improving your chances.

                    1. Don't buy the same ticket more than once.
                    2. To maximize your chances of winning a jackpot you should spend your whole lottery allowance on a single draw.

                    There is nothing mathematically rigourous about your 2 statements as you claim, they are simply as fallacious and misleading as any other statements made here.  Neither of your two strategies has mathematically improved a persons chances of winning.

                    There is a very long thread started by JadeLottery that goes into details concerning your fallacious statement #2.

                    Jimmy

                    Two things: 

                    1.You can't just say my statements are fallacious and misleading without any evidence or reasoning. 

                     

                    2.I never claimed that my strategies improved a person's chance of winning. In fact I stated that it didn't. what I said was that it improves your chances of winning

                    the jackpot ONCE, while reducing your chances of winning the jackpot multiple amount of times. It improves your chances of winning, assuming you don't care for

                    winning more than once. 

                     

                    If you still say my statements are not true, show me why, or at least give me a link to said thread.

                     

                    EDIT: I would appreciate it if you guys stopped using such enmity and an accusational tone. If you're playing the lottery, you should be an adult, so act like one. 

                    I will clarify again that I'm not calling any PERSON silly, outrageous or whatever word offended you. I am saying that some IDEAS are. Every single human is 

                    imperfect, we all have things we don't know, and things we think we know but we actually don't. We all get confused and come up with weird thoughts at times. 

                    It's a fact of life, I will admit that I am wrong a lot, I make outrageous claims a lot, and I get confused whenever I attempt to do my psets. I don't understand 

                    why anyone would be so hurt because someone claimed their ideas are wrong. If you still think they're right, prove it. If not, no need to act all defensive.

                      jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                      Park City, UT
                      United States
                      Member #69864
                      January 18, 2009
                      993 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: January 28, 2013, 5:54 am - IP Logged

                      Search for JadeLottery "If you had 10 bucks to  bet ...".  It will be interesting to see if Jimmy4164 will back your fallicous statement because he agreed with Doug at the time that there is no advantage in playing 10 tickets for 1 draw vs playing 10 draws with 1 ticket.

                      The title of your thread is "Fallacies, and two REAL ways of improving your chances".  Sounds like to me your saying I can improve my chances by playing your two strategies.

                      Out of one side of your mouth your saying that playing 1-2-3-4-5-6, and 4-13-21-35-43-47 have the same equal odds.  Now out of the other side of your mouth your saying I will have better odds if I don't play 4-13-21-35-43-47 in consecutive draws because magically once I have played a number with my money filled out with my pencil on a play slip that it will no longer have an equal chance in the next draw.  That is kuckoo logic.  Your the one making the claim so you use math to prove how playing 4-13-21-35-43-47 in consecutive draws is a bad bet.  I'm betting your not going to reply with any math but instead start insulting me like you accused others of doing to you.  You talk about using math but I have yet to see any math in any of your posts to support your statements but instead just hand waving and your own personal beliefs.

                      Again it will be interesting to see if your new friend Jimmy4164 will back your new statement that your two strategies do the following:

                      "That it improves your chances of winning the jackpot ONCE."

                      Jimmy

                        Avatar
                        Toronto
                        Canada
                        Member #138397
                        January 26, 2013
                        179 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: January 28, 2013, 6:39 am - IP Logged

                        Search for JadeLottery "If you had 10 bucks to  bet ...".  It will be interesting to see if Jimmy4164 will back your fallicous statement because he agreed with Doug at the time that there is no advantage in playing 10 tickets for 1 draw vs playing 10 draws with 1 ticket.

                        The title of your thread is "Fallacies, and two REAL ways of improving your chances".  Sounds like to me your saying I can improve my chances by playing your two strategies.

                        Out of one side of your mouth your saying that playing 1-2-3-4-5-6, and 4-13-21-35-43-47 have the same equal odds.  Now out of the other side of your mouth your saying I will have better odds if I don't play 4-13-21-35-43-47 in consecutive draws because magically once I have played a number with my money filled out with my pencil on a play slip that it will no longer have an equal chance in the next draw.  That is kuckoo logic.  Your the one making the claim so you use math to prove how playing 4-13-21-35-43-47 in consecutive draws is a bad bet.  I'm betting your not going to reply with any math but instead start insulting me like you accused others of doing to you.  You talk about using math but I have yet to see any math in any of your posts to support your statements but instead just hand waving and your own personal beliefs.

                        Again it will be interesting to see if your new friend Jimmy4164 will back your new statement that your two strategies do the following:

                        "That it improves your chances of winning the jackpot ONCE."

                        Jimmy

                        Again, if you don't like my wording, I can't do anything about it. I clearly stated in my post that you CANNOT increase the overall chances. If you continue to choose

                        to purposely interpret my post in the wrong way, I cannot help you. 

                         

                        However, your third paragraph makes a point. I may not have been clear enough. For my first point, I meant you should not buy the same ticket more than once

                        in the SAME DRAW. Of course the chances of 4-13-21-35-43-47 has an equal chance of appearing in any draw. There's no difference in playing that every draw 

                        than to play something different every draw. What IS different, however, is if you're buying the same ticket more than once for the same draw. Instead of increasing 

                        your chances to win the jackpot, you're increasing the number of times you will win, if you win. 

                         

                        If you want to see math, then I'll show you some. Let's take a really simple lottery game, where there is only a jackpot and no other prizes, because that's what 

                        most players are after and care about, and is what I addressed in my points. Let's say the goal is to hit 2 numbers, with replacement, from 1-10. 

                         

                        Now, Let's say you bought 10^2, or 100 tickets for the same draw, each one being different. You covered all the possibilities, so you have a 100% chance of winning

                        the jackpot.

                         

                        Now suppose you bought 2 tickets per draw for 50 draws. You're still buying 100 tickets in total, but clearly there's a chance you might not win the jackpot at all.

                        But to compensate, you might win the jackpot twice, or 3 times or 50 times.

                         

                        Now suppose again, that you bought 100 tickets for the same draw, but you bought the SAME numbers 100 times. The odds of you winning are still 1%. It's just

                        that if you win, you win with all 100 tickets.

                         

                        Make sense?

                        My claim was that if you disregard winning the jackpot many times, i.e treat it the same way as winning once, then buying different tickets for the same time 

                        increases your odds of winning the jackpot.

                         

                        Put mathematically, if your odds of winning the jackpot with a single ticket is 1/x, then:

                        Odds of winning once or more with y unique tickets for a single draw is:

                         y/x

                        Odds of winning once or more with y tickets but only y - z unique tickets for a single draw is:

                        (y - z)/x

                        Odds of winning once or more with 1 ticket for y draws would be:

                        (1)1/x + 

                        (1 - 1/x)(1/x) + <--- this is because 1/x of the time, the condition has already been satisfied, so you only look at the remaining cases.

                        (1 - 1/x - (1 - 1/x)(1/x))(1/x) + <--- again, the condition has been satisfied by some more cases so you only look at the remaining ones.

                        (1 - 1/x - (1 - 1/x)(1/x)) - (1 - 1/x - (1 - 1/x)(1/x))(1/x))(1/x) +

                        ^--- each time you have to subtract the cases that satisfies the condition from above and multiply by (1/x), which is the chance of winning in that draw

                         

                        So, if you call each of these cases Cy where C denotes the probability of having won the jackpot for the first time at draw y, then the total probability comes to

                         

                        1(1/x) + (1 - C1)(1/x) + (1 - C - C2)(1/x) + ... + (1 - C1  - C2 - ... - Cy-1)(1/x) = (y - (y - 1)C1 - ... - Cy-1)/x

                        Since C > 0 for all y > 0, (y - (y - 1)C1 - ... - Cy-1) < y.

                         

                        Thus (y - (y - 1)C1 - ... - Cy-1)/x < y/x, as is the desired result.

                        Also, (y - z)/x < y/x when z > 0, i.e there are duplicate tickets.

                         

                        If you have anymore concerns, feel free to ask. I'm sorry I didn't resort to name calling and insults, it's just not my style. If I realized I was wrong, as I often do,

                        I may be slightly embarassed but I will admit my error.

                         

                        Edit: added cases for duplicate tickets

                          jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                          Park City, UT
                          United States
                          Member #69864
                          January 18, 2009
                          993 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: January 28, 2013, 7:03 am - IP Logged

                          Okay I can see that I misread your intent on your first strategy.  I can't tell what your conclusion is for your 2nd strategy are you still claiming its better to purchase 10 tickets for 1 draw vs 1 ticket for 10 draws?

                          http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/229884

                          Jimmy

                            Avatar
                            Toronto
                            Canada
                            Member #138397
                            January 26, 2013
                            179 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: January 28, 2013, 7:11 am - IP Logged

                            Okay I can see that I misread your intent on your first strategy.  I can't tell what your conclusion is for your 2nd strategy are you still claiming its better to purchase 10 tickets for 1 draw vs 1 ticket for 10 draws?

                            http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/229884

                            Jimmy

                            I'm not claiming it's better. I never did. I'm claiming it gives a higher chance of winning the jackpot once, at the expense of not being able to win it multiple times.

                             

                            The expected return is the same either way. It's just that if you're like me, and feel that winning the jackpot once is enough, then purchasing 10 tickets for one draw

                            gets you closer to that goal than buying 1 ticket for 10 draws. However, the amount you're expected to win should still be the same.

                             

                            I really don't know how to make that clearer, I'm sorry. I hope you understand it. It's kind of like You have two markets:

                            Market A sells apples for $1 each, oranges for $2 each

                             

                            Market B sells apples for $2 each and oranges for $1 each

                             

                            Which market is better? Well, you can't really say. It depends. If you like apples, market A is better, if you like oranges, market B is better.

                             

                            My claim for my two strategies is basically this: If you like apples more than oranges, then market A is better. But market A isn't better in every circumstance.

                              jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                              Park City, UT
                              United States
                              Member #69864
                              January 18, 2009
                              993 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: January 28, 2013, 7:14 am - IP Logged

                              Okay then I equally give up if you think you have better odds of winning the jackpot exactly once buying 10 tickets for 1 draw vs 1 ticket for 10 draws.

                              Jimmy

                                 
                                Page 3 of 15