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Fallacies, and two REAL ways of improving your chances

Topic closed. 215 replies. Last post 4 years ago by Kumo.

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BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
Dump Water Florida
United States
Member #380
June 5, 2002
3114 Posts
Offline
Posted: January 31, 2013, 4:55 pm - IP Logged


The fallacy in reviewing the system is the insistance of taking it line by line as those odds never
change, each line has an equal chance of being drawn.  The difference is between having a chance
to win a jackpot in every draw in a reduced 6/36 field versus quicks picks where a post review finds no chance of winning a jackpot in most draws.

Look at it this way.

Two people walk into a lottery ticket store.

One purchases 8 Quick Picks.

The other purchases 8 randomly generated lines conditional on all the 6/48 numbers being among
the 8 lines, nothing more.  Free software like CoverMaster can do this, no big deal.

The first customer walks out holding a total unknown for 6/48 odds of 1 in 12 million.  Most likely
about 32-36 of the numbers will be in play.  If all 6 of the winning numbers are not among the
32-36 a jackpot is impossible.

The second customer walks out holding an absolute 100% guarantee of 6 or fewer lines with all 6
of the winning numbers among them in a pre draw 6/36 reduced field with odds of 1 in 1.9 million,
a jackpot is possible.

In the majority of drawings played this way the second customer will always have a chance to win a jackpot while the first customer will not except for the rare draw where they have all six winning numbers
among their lines and with luck some of those numbers appearing more then once in which case they
have a slightly improved chance in that one draw.

Govern your actions accordingly.

BobP

    CajunWin4's avatar - Lottery-031.jpg
    Whiskey Island
    United States
    Member #90216
    April 24, 2010
    12808 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: January 31, 2013, 5:06 pm - IP Logged


    The fallacy in reviewing the system is the insistance of taking it line by line as those odds never
    change, each line has an equal chance of being drawn.  The difference is between having a chance
    to win a jackpot in every draw in a reduced 6/36 field versus quicks picks where a post review finds no chance of winning a jackpot in most draws.

    Look at it this way.

    Two people walk into a lottery ticket store.

    One purchases 8 Quick Picks.

    The other purchases 8 randomly generated lines conditional on all the 6/48 numbers being among
    the 8 lines, nothing more.  Free software like CoverMaster can do this, no big deal.

    The first customer walks out holding a total unknown for 6/48 odds of 1 in 12 million.  Most likely
    about 32-36 of the numbers will be in play.  If all 6 of the winning numbers are not among the
    32-36 a jackpot is impossible.

    The second customer walks out holding an absolute 100% guarantee of 6 or fewer lines with all 6
    of the winning numbers among them in a pre draw 6/36 reduced field with odds of 1 in 1.9 million,
    a jackpot is possible.

    In the majority of drawings played this way the second customer will always have a chance to win a jackpot while the first customer will not except for the rare draw where they have all six winning numbers
    among their lines and with luck some of those numbers appearing more then once in which case they
    have a slightly improved chance in that one draw.

    Govern your actions accordingly.

    BobP

    Agree with stupid  Excellent Post BobP !!!!

      rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
      Texas
      United States
      Member #55889
      October 23, 2007
      5765 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: January 31, 2013, 5:20 pm - IP Logged


      The fallacy in reviewing the system is the insistance of taking it line by line as those odds never
      change, each line has an equal chance of being drawn.  The difference is between having a chance
      to win a jackpot in every draw in a reduced 6/36 field versus quicks picks where a post review finds no chance of winning a jackpot in most draws.

      Look at it this way.

      Two people walk into a lottery ticket store.

      One purchases 8 Quick Picks.

      The other purchases 8 randomly generated lines conditional on all the 6/48 numbers being among
      the 8 lines, nothing more.  Free software like CoverMaster can do this, no big deal.

      The first customer walks out holding a total unknown for 6/48 odds of 1 in 12 million.  Most likely
      about 32-36 of the numbers will be in play.  If all 6 of the winning numbers are not among the
      32-36 a jackpot is impossible.

      The second customer walks out holding an absolute 100% guarantee of 6 or fewer lines with all 6
      of the winning numbers among them in a pre draw 6/36 reduced field with odds of 1 in 1.9 million,
      a jackpot is possible.

      In the majority of drawings played this way the second customer will always have a chance to win a jackpot while the first customer will not except for the rare draw where they have all six winning numbers
      among their lines and with luck some of those numbers appearing more then once in which case they
      have a slightly improved chance in that one draw.

      Govern your actions accordingly.

      BobP

      Bob,

      If they can't understand after that explanation, they have no hope of figuring it out.

      Good job.

      CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

      A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)


        United States
        Member #93947
        July 10, 2010
        2180 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: January 31, 2013, 6:36 pm - IP Logged


        No one is trying to trick anyone.

        From a lottery player's perspective, one wants to eliminate some of the ways to lose.  Such as not
        having all the winning numbers among lines played.

        One of the ways to prevent this is to put all the numbers into play.

        Doing so in the minimum number of lines helps to keep playing costs within reason.

        Lottery strategy is based on exchanging chances to win for a better chance to win when the strategy
        proves correct.  All strategies balance out, no way to prove they help or harm chances long term.

        Yes, random means anything can happen, Quick Picks do win their fair share of prizes.

        The lottery is a closed number universe, winning numbers can only come from within the universe.
        This is why the overall odds never change, however there are odds for everything that can happen.

        When in the 6/48 example we make a set of all the numbers in a minimum number of lines there is
        no question 100% of the winning numbers will fall among 6 lines or less.  The lines without winning
        numbers only serve the overall odds, they are what we give up to gain the better odds when the
        strategy proves successful.  Think of the reduced to 6/36 or less odds as a sub-set.

        Unlike most strategies, this one does not need prediction on the part of the player.  The winning
        numbers will fall among six lines or less forming a 6/36 matrix.  Does this provide better odds of a
        win then any randomly selected set of 6 lines?  Well yes when the randomly selected set of lines 
        does not have all the winning numbers among them, the set that does have all the winning number 
        must have better odds of winning then the set that can't win.

        BobP

        BobP,

        "All strategies balance out, no way to prove they help or harm chances long term."

        Wrong!

        There definitely ARE ways to prove that, long term, betting strategies will NOT help, NOR will they harm, your Return On Investment.  They have been presented here many times.  Unfortunately, many people choose to ignore or reject them.

        The last line of your last paragraph above is only true when you are referring to the number of "hits" you receive, not to your return, or "prize ratio," as it's referred to in the Predictions pages of this site.

        --Jimmy4164

          Avatar
          Kentucky
          United States
          Member #32652
          February 14, 2006
          7344 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: January 31, 2013, 8:10 pm - IP Logged

          BobP,

          "All strategies balance out, no way to prove they help or harm chances long term."

          Wrong!

          There definitely ARE ways to prove that, long term, betting strategies will NOT help, NOR will they harm, your Return On Investment.  They have been presented here many times.  Unfortunately, many people choose to ignore or reject them.

          The last line of your last paragraph above is only true when you are referring to the number of "hits" you receive, not to your return, or "prize ratio," as it's referred to in the Predictions pages of this site.

          --Jimmy4164

          Get a grip, Jimmy.

          BobP was comparing strategies to purchasing QPs.

          "Two people walk into a lottery ticket store. One purchases 8 Quick Picks. The other purchases 8 randomly generated lines conditional on all the 6/48 numbers being among the 8 lines, nothing more."

          Let's compare strategies by me using a 4 if 4 of 28 number abbreviated wheel using Ronnie's 28 numbers in tomorrow's MM drawing and you purchase 5000 QPs. I'll post my combos and you can scan your tickets and then we'll compare and see which gets the better ROI after the drawing. 

          "There definitely ARE ways to prove that, long term"

          You better define long term because at $5000 a drawing, you'll need deep pockets. You do understand what "purchasing QPs" means?


            United States
            Member #93947
            July 10, 2010
            2180 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: January 31, 2013, 9:13 pm - IP Logged

            Get a grip, Jimmy.

            BobP was comparing strategies to purchasing QPs.

            "Two people walk into a lottery ticket store. One purchases 8 Quick Picks. The other purchases 8 randomly generated lines conditional on all the 6/48 numbers being among the 8 lines, nothing more."

            Let's compare strategies by me using a 4 if 4 of 28 number abbreviated wheel using Ronnie's 28 numbers in tomorrow's MM drawing and you purchase 5000 QPs. I'll post my combos and you can scan your tickets and then we'll compare and see which gets the better ROI after the drawing. 

            "There definitely ARE ways to prove that, long term"

            You better define long term because at $5000 a drawing, you'll need deep pockets. You do understand what "purchasing QPs" means?

            Stack47,

            This is really getting BORING! 

            You're confusing "Number of Winning Tickets" with "Return On Investment!"

            At the LP Prediction boards, these are called "Hit Ratio" and "Prize ratio," respectively.  You obviously use these strategies in your Predictions at LP as evidenced by your Prediction Statistics.  However, have you looked at your "Prize Ratios" lately? 

            https://www.lotterypost.com/predictions-statistics.asp?i=34230 

            They are squarely in the Middle Of The Pack, no better and no worse than the average.

            43% to 46%

            Wake up!

            --Jimmy4164

              Avatar
              Columbia, SC
              United States
              Member #135285
              November 21, 2012
              584 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: February 1, 2013, 8:29 am - IP Logged

              Everyone might have a different strategy, and who is to say one person's strategy is wrong or right? Until a person can PROVE their strategy works with multiple winning tickets, I think I will stick to what I feel works for ME. I think it's kinda great we don't all think alike and are approaching the same goal from different angles.........Hopefully one of us, someday, will get it right...

              Good Luck Everyone!!

              "If you can DREAM it, you can DO it!"- Walt Disney

                Avatar
                Toronto
                Canada
                Member #138397
                January 26, 2013
                179 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: February 1, 2013, 12:21 pm - IP Logged

                Bob,

                If they can't understand after that explanation, they have no hope of figuring it out.

                Good job.

                It's not that "we", can't understand. "We" understand completely what you're trying to say now, or at least I do.

                 

                However, YOU don't understand that your idea is flawed. Repeating your reasoning again and again doesn't help. You need to address the flaws that I

                have pointed out in your system. If you cannot explain them, your idea is flawed, simple as that. Repeating your reasoning again and again in different

                words does not make your idea correct.

                 

                You don't have to mention the word guarantee. 

                It's like you saying "If you go into a bank with a gun and kill everyone, you can come out with a lot of money".

                 

                The words "crime" and "illegal" were never mentioned, but they're implicit. 

                 

                You can't just say person A goes and buys 8 lines and only 8 lines. 

                 

                A person can use any strategy any number of times. If you're saying that the odds of winning is X:Y for ANY strategy, the implied meaning is that

                when that strategy is applied y/x times, you are GUARANTEED TO WIN. That's what odds mean, when you don't have replacement. 

                 

                You simply can't stop me from applying the strategy more than 1 time. 

                 

                Secondly, Bob keeps mentioning 6/48 and 6/36, but THAT'S NOT THE PROBABILITY.  You have 8 tickets. You need to look at the probability for ALL

                8 tickets. That probability is neither 6/48 nor 6/36. Why don't you calculate the total probability of your 8 tickets? Calculate it yourself. Let's see what 

                you come up with.

                 

                I say the total probability of ANY 8 tickets, whether it's quickpick or your strategy, is 8:12,271,512. The only way you can prove your strategy

                is better if you can find that your strategy arrives at a probability that's greater than 8:12,271,512.

                  Avatar
                  Toronto
                  Canada
                  Member #138397
                  January 26, 2013
                  179 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: February 1, 2013, 12:35 pm - IP Logged

                  " The fallacy in reviewing the system is the insistance of taking it line by line as those odds never
                  change, each line has an equal chance of being drawn.  The difference is between having a chance
                  to win a jackpot in every draw in a reduced 6/36 field versus quicks picks where a post review finds no chance of winning a jackpot in most draws."

                   

                  There is no fallacy there. We can do that as much as we want, it's a common technique in mathematics. You can say "line 1 has an x% chance" without

                  knowing specifically which line is line 1. Any of the 8 lines can be line 1, meaning they still have equal chance. It's the same thing as you saying "there 

                  is a 100% chance that 6 or less lines will contain all the winning numbers." You don't know which 6 they are, but that they exist.

                   

                  You're using words like "most likely", "majority", "slightly improved". That's not mathematics. These words are there to confuse and fool people, they have

                  0 value and meaning. You need to put real hard numbers in your reasoning. How much is "majority"? How much is "slightly improved"? 

                   

                  Again, I challenge you to calculate the odds of someone winning with your strategy. If you can. Then we can talk. Using crafty speech doesn't cut it.

                    PlayToWin47's avatar - Lottery-041.jpg
                    Joplin MO
                    United States
                    Member #138489
                    January 28, 2013
                    190 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: February 1, 2013, 1:19 pm - IP Logged

                    Everyone might have a different strategy, and who is to say one person's strategy is wrong or right? Until a person can PROVE their strategy works with multiple winning tickets, I think I will stick to what I feel works for ME. I think it's kinda great we don't all think alike and are approaching the same goal from different angles.........Hopefully one of us, someday, will get it right...

                    Good Luck Everyone!!

                    Excellent post!!!  I agree!

                      Avatar
                      Columbia, SC
                      United States
                      Member #135285
                      November 21, 2012
                      584 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: February 2, 2013, 8:36 am - IP Logged

                      Excellent post!!!  I agree!

                      Thanks PTW47!!

                      "If you can DREAM it, you can DO it!"- Walt Disney

                        rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
                        Texas
                        United States
                        Member #55889
                        October 23, 2007
                        5765 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: February 2, 2013, 9:15 am - IP Logged

                        It's not that "we", can't understand. "We" understand completely what you're trying to say now, or at least I do.

                         

                        However, YOU don't understand that your idea is flawed. Repeating your reasoning again and again doesn't help. You need to address the flaws that I

                        have pointed out in your system. If you cannot explain them, your idea is flawed, simple as that. Repeating your reasoning again and again in different

                        words does not make your idea correct.

                         

                        You don't have to mention the word guarantee. 

                        It's like you saying "If you go into a bank with a gun and kill everyone, you can come out with a lot of money".

                         

                        The words "crime" and "illegal" were never mentioned, but they're implicit. 

                         

                        You can't just say person A goes and buys 8 lines and only 8 lines. 

                         

                        A person can use any strategy any number of times. If you're saying that the odds of winning is X:Y for ANY strategy, the implied meaning is that

                        when that strategy is applied y/x times, you are GUARANTEED TO WIN. That's what odds mean, when you don't have replacement. 

                         

                        You simply can't stop me from applying the strategy more than 1 time. 

                         

                        Secondly, Bob keeps mentioning 6/48 and 6/36, but THAT'S NOT THE PROBABILITY.  You have 8 tickets. You need to look at the probability for ALL

                        8 tickets. That probability is neither 6/48 nor 6/36. Why don't you calculate the total probability of your 8 tickets? Calculate it yourself. Let's see what 

                        you come up with.

                         

                        I say the total probability of ANY 8 tickets, whether it's quickpick or your strategy, is 8:12,271,512. The only way you can prove your strategy

                        is better if you can find that your strategy arrives at a probability that's greater than 8:12,271,512.

                        6 winning numbers can fall on no more than 6 lines. Therefore the game is reduced to a 6/36.

                        Odds of a 6/36 game are 1 in 1,947,792.

                        In Texas our lotto game is 6/54. Odds for that game 1 in 25,827,165.

                        Playing each number randomly (because we don't know which numbers will be drawn) one time over 9 lines means all the numbers drawn will land on no more than 6 lines, hopefully less.

                        Nothing magical. Just a strategy to reduce the odds from 25,827,165 to 1,947,792.

                        If I buy 9 QP's instead, I am 99.9% sure that I will not have all 54 numbers on those 9 QP's.

                        Not saying one way is bad and one way is good. Just explaining a STRATEGY.

                        CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

                        A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)


                          United States
                          Member #93947
                          July 10, 2010
                          2180 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: February 2, 2013, 1:26 pm - IP Logged

                          6 winning numbers can fall on no more than 6 lines. Therefore the game is reduced to a 6/36.

                          Odds of a 6/36 game are 1 in 1,947,792.

                          In Texas our lotto game is 6/54. Odds for that game 1 in 25,827,165.

                          Playing each number randomly (because we don't know which numbers will be drawn) one time over 9 lines means all the numbers drawn will land on no more than 6 lines, hopefully less.

                          Nothing magical. Just a strategy to reduce the odds from 25,827,165 to 1,947,792.

                          If I buy 9 QP's instead, I am 99.9% sure that I will not have all 54 numbers on those 9 QP's.

                          Not saying one way is bad and one way is good. Just explaining a STRATEGY.

                          Rcbbuckeye,

                          If, in addition to the normal payouts, the Texas Lottery offered  bonuses for tickets of 9 lines matching the most numbers, your strategy MIGHT be a good one.  Unfortunately, they don't.  Your goal in Lotto is to maximize your matches on 1 line, not 9.

                          Note that I emphasized might above.  The person whose self selections or QuickPicks that happen to match the drawn numbers on multiple lines will beat you even at that game. 

                          Check out the Match-6 game in Pennsylvania.  You'll love it.  However, you'll be disappointed to find that their payouts in this game reflect the expected averages, as in all their other games.

                          If it makes you feel good to accumulate a pile of $1 winning tickets, by all means, check out the software at BobP's site.

                          --Jimmy4164

                            rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
                            Texas
                            United States
                            Member #55889
                            October 23, 2007
                            5765 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: February 2, 2013, 8:28 pm - IP Logged

                            Rcbbuckeye,

                            If, in addition to the normal payouts, the Texas Lottery offered  bonuses for tickets of 9 lines matching the most numbers, your strategy MIGHT be a good one.  Unfortunately, they don't.  Your goal in Lotto is to maximize your matches on 1 line, not 9.

                            Note that I emphasized might above.  The person whose self selections or QuickPicks that happen to match the drawn numbers on multiple lines will beat you even at that game. 

                            Check out the Match-6 game in Pennsylvania.  You'll love it.  However, you'll be disappointed to find that their payouts in this game reflect the expected averages, as in all their other games.

                            If it makes you feel good to accumulate a pile of $1 winning tickets, by all means, check out the software at BobP's site.

                            --Jimmy4164

                            I have perused Bob's website many times.

                            CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

                            A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

                              Avatar
                              Toronto
                              Canada
                              Member #138397
                              January 26, 2013
                              179 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: February 2, 2013, 8:48 pm - IP Logged

                              6 winning numbers can fall on no more than 6 lines. Therefore the game is reduced to a 6/36.

                              Odds of a 6/36 game are 1 in 1,947,792.

                              In Texas our lotto game is 6/54. Odds for that game 1 in 25,827,165.

                              Playing each number randomly (because we don't know which numbers will be drawn) one time over 9 lines means all the numbers drawn will land on no more than 6 lines, hopefully less.

                              Nothing magical. Just a strategy to reduce the odds from 25,827,165 to 1,947,792.

                              If I buy 9 QP's instead, I am 99.9% sure that I will not have all 54 numbers on those 9 QP's.

                              Not saying one way is bad and one way is good. Just explaining a STRATEGY.

                              This is how you've been fooled. You keep mentioning odds of a 6/36 game, but no one was asking you that. It's completely irrelevant.

                               

                              I'm asking you, what do you think your chances of winning the jackpot are, given that you buy 8 lines with BobP's strategy?

                               

                              If you think it's 1:1,947,792, then I'm afraid your strategy is worse  than quickpicks, because the chances for winning with 8 random quickpick lines are

                              1:1,533,939.

                               

                              P.S tonight's lotto 6/49 in Canada will have the following winning numbers: 7 18 31 39 41 47... hehe Cool look forward to me winning the jackpot :D

                                 
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