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Fallacies, and two REAL ways of improving your chances

Topic closed. 215 replies. Last post 4 years ago by Kumo.

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BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
Dump Water Florida
United States
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June 5, 2002
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Posted: February 4, 2013, 5:01 am - IP Logged

I wrote a lottery simulator program to test the premise for a 6/48 game.  I created two test groups A & B.

For each game 8 random tickets were generated for Test Group A and 8 random tickets were generated for Test Group B.

For Test Group A the 8 tickets had all 48 numbers in play or no duplicate numbers.

For Test Group B the 8 tickets were just randomly generated with at least 1 duplicate number in play but in general had alot more duplicates in play.

The following picture depicts the results after 42,305,214 games or 338,441,172 tickets bought for Test Group A, and 338,441,172 tickets bought for Test Group B.  The odds of matching 6 of 6 for this game is 12,271,512 to 1.  If you divide 338,441,172 by 12,271,512 you get 27.579.  So you can see both strategies matched roughly what was expected.

If you don't believe the numbers my program produced then I invite you to write you own lottery simulator to validate the numbers.  Just be careful if you do this because the built-in functions srand()/rand() provided by the CRT do not have the precision required to validate a 6/48 game.

 

 

Jimmy


Jimmy: Thank you for this. Some people on LotteryPost are amazing!

Question:

You say, " For Test Group B the 8 tickets were just randomly generated with at least 1 duplicate
number in play but in general had alot more duplicates in play."

Can you kind of define "alot" sort of give us the mode for the majority of draws?  I ask because the
number of  uniques has a direct relationship to how many B sets have all 6 winning numbers where
a jackpot win is possible.  For example . . .

If there are 28 unique numbers we can expect all 6 winning numbers 1 in 32.57 draws.

If there are 30 unique numbers we can expect all 6 winning numbers 1 in 20.67 draws.

If there are 32 unique numbers we can expect all 6 winning numbers 1 in 13.54 draws.

If there are 34 unique numbers we can expect all 6 winning numbers 1 in 9.12 draws.

If there are 36 unique numbers we can expect all 6 winning numbers 1 in 6.30 draws.

If there are 38 unique numbers we can expect all 6 winning numbers 1 in 4.45 draws.

If there are 40 unique numbers we can expect all 6 winning numbers 1 in 3.20 draws.

Where would your experience with your software put "alot"?  And how do you think that
figure would compare to Quick Picks from the terminal?

BobP


    United States
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    July 10, 2010
    2180 Posts
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    Posted: February 4, 2013, 10:40 am - IP Logged

    I wrote a lottery simulator program to test the premise for a 6/48 game.  I created two test groups A & B.

    For each game 8 random tickets were generated for Test Group A and 8 random tickets were generated for Test Group B.

    For Test Group A the 8 tickets had all 48 numbers in play or no duplicate numbers.

    For Test Group B the 8 tickets were just randomly generated with at least 1 duplicate number in play but in general had alot more duplicates in play.

    The following picture depicts the results after 42,305,214 games or 338,441,172 tickets bought for Test Group A, and 338,441,172 tickets bought for Test Group B.  The odds of matching 6 of 6 for this game is 12,271,512 to 1.  If you divide 338,441,172 by 12,271,512 you get 27.579.  So you can see both strategies matched roughly what was expected.

    If you don't believe the numbers my program produced then I invite you to write you own lottery simulator to validate the numbers.  Just be careful if you do this because the built-in functions srand()/rand() provided by the CRT do not have the precision required to validate a 6/48 game.

     

     

    Jimmy

    Jimjwright,

    Thanks for a great piece of work.  Hopefully, one of the doubters will write their own program and have the courage and honesty to report the results.  Unfortunately, as you can see from BobP's latest post, he will not give up easily.  He will try to cast any doubt he can on your program because the truth about this matter can't help but cut into his royalty checks.

    --Jimmy4164


      United States
      Member #116268
      September 7, 2011
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      Posted: February 4, 2013, 10:50 am - IP Logged

      Jimjwright,

      Thanks for a great piece of work.  Hopefully, one of the doubters will write their own program and have the courage and honesty to report the results.  Unfortunately, as you can see from BobP's latest post, he will not give up easily.  He will try to cast any doubt he can on your program because the truth about this matter can't help but cut into his royalty checks.

      --Jimmy4164

      For each game 8 random tickets were generated for Test Group A and 8 random tickets were generated for Test Group B.

      So two randomly generated groups produced the same results. Wow, that proved a lot.


        United States
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        Posted: February 4, 2013, 11:00 am - IP Logged

        For each game 8 random tickets were generated for Test Group A and 8 random tickets were generated for Test Group B.

        So two randomly generated groups produced the same results. Wow, that proved a lot.

        Your speed reading needs to be improved, Ronnie.  His test group A was pruned to include only the sets you like.  Why not write your own program and see what YOU get.


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          Posted: February 4, 2013, 11:05 am - IP Logged

          Your speed reading needs to be improved, Ronnie.  His test group A was pruned to include only the sets you like.  Why not write your own program and see what YOU get.

          The sets "I" like? Your comprehension skills seem to be fading jim. When was I ever a part of the test?

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
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            March 24, 2001
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            Posted: February 4, 2013, 11:11 am - IP Logged

            Jimjwright,

            Thanks for a great piece of work.  Hopefully, one of the doubters will write their own program and have the courage and honesty to report the results.  Unfortunately, as you can see from BobP's latest post, he will not give up easily.  He will try to cast any doubt he can on your program because the truth about this matter can't help but cut into his royalty checks.

            --Jimmy4164

            Brad Duke claimed his lottery program helped him win a PB jackpot.  Why would anyone interested in winning a lottery jackpot write a program simulating playing and trying to win a lottery is a waste of time?  Anybody can lose a lottery without a simulation program showing them how.

            I hope more players like Brad Duke come forward, we've had enough losers come forward with their claims.  We need a simulation program that simulate winning, not losing.  The blind can't lead the blind and neither can a bunch of losers advise winners on how to win.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       


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              Posted: February 4, 2013, 11:13 am - IP Logged

              Brad Duke claimed his lottery program helped him win a PB jackpot.  Why would anyone interested in winning a lottery jackpot write a program simulating playing and trying to win a lottery is a waste of time?  Anybody can lose a lottery without a simulation program showing them how.

              I hope more players like Brad Duke come forward, we've had enough losers come forward with their claims.  We need a simulation program that simulate winning, not losing.  The blind can't lead the blind and neither can a bunch of losers advise winners on how to win.

              I Agree! This one will have me laughing all day. Thanks RJOh

                jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                Park City, UT
                United States
                Member #69864
                January 18, 2009
                1000 Posts
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                Posted: February 4, 2013, 3:47 pm - IP Logged


                Jimmy: Thank you for this. Some people on LotteryPost are amazing!

                Question:

                You say, " For Test Group B the 8 tickets were just randomly generated with at least 1 duplicate
                number in play but in general had alot more duplicates in play."

                Can you kind of define "alot" sort of give us the mode for the majority of draws?  I ask because the
                number of  uniques has a direct relationship to how many B sets have all 6 winning numbers where
                a jackpot win is possible.  For example . . .

                If there are 28 unique numbers we can expect all 6 winning numbers 1 in 32.57 draws.

                If there are 30 unique numbers we can expect all 6 winning numbers 1 in 20.67 draws.

                If there are 32 unique numbers we can expect all 6 winning numbers 1 in 13.54 draws.

                If there are 34 unique numbers we can expect all 6 winning numbers 1 in 9.12 draws.

                If there are 36 unique numbers we can expect all 6 winning numbers 1 in 6.30 draws.

                If there are 38 unique numbers we can expect all 6 winning numbers 1 in 4.45 draws.

                If there are 40 unique numbers we can expect all 6 winning numbers 1 in 3.20 draws.

                Where would your experience with your software put "alot"?  And how do you think that
                figure would compare to Quick Picks from the terminal?

                BobP

                I can't quantify "alot" to your satisfaction with current program without additional modifications.  But I don't really see the point in doing that because additional FUD will just be asserted.  A person either wants to learn and gain knowledge or they don't.  Its up to each individual.

                As far as QuickPick terminal I can't compare without seeing how they generate their random numbers.  The random number generator is the most important piece of the puzzle and without access to its guts I would just be conjecturing.

                If any programmers are interested the following is routine that generated Combos A.  I had a worker thread that generated all the combos in the background while the foreground UI thread updated the display in real-time.

                void CWorkerThread::GenerateCombosA(void)

                {
                  memset(m_balls, 0, sizeof(m_balls));
                  memset(m_combosA, 0, sizeof(m_combosA));

                  for (int i=0; i < m_comboCnt; i++)
                  {
                    int generatedBalls = 0;

                    while (generatedBalls < m_ballsPerDraw)
                    {
                      int randNum = MyRand() % m_ballsPerGame + 1;

                      if (m_balls[randNum] != 0)
                      {
                        continue;
                      }

                      generatedBalls++;
                      m_balls[randNum] = 1;

                      if (randNum < 32)
                      {
                        m_combosA[i].mask1 |= (1 << randNum);
                      }
                      else
                      {
                        m_combosA[i].mask2 |= (1 << randNum);
                      }
                    }
                  }
                }

                The part I highlited in red is what prevents duplicates when generating the 8 combos.

                For 6/48 game m_balls is a boolean array from 0..48.  Its used to keep track if that number has already been used when generating the combos

                m_comboCnt = 8

                m_ballsPerDraw = 6

                m_ballsPerGame = 48

                m_combosA is any array of size 8 that contains 2 DWORDS.  1 DWORD contains 32 bits, so I needed two DWORD to hold 48 numbers.  Each bit set in the DWORDS represents a number.  Its faster to use bits to represent a draw to speed up the comparisons done later  to determine how many numbers match per draw.  Its faster because boolean logic gets mapped to native instructions provided on Intel/AMD processors.

                Since test Group A is what is really being measured these are the actual results of GroupA versus the odds:

                match 2 of 6 = 1 in 7.31,            actual 1 in 7.30 for test Group A
                match 3 of 6 = 1 in 53.45           actual 1 in 53.44 for test Group A
                match 4 of 6 = 1 in 950.18         actual 1 in 950.32 for test Group A
                match 5 of 6 = 1 in 48,696.48    actual 1 in 48,197.33 for test Group A
                match 6 of 6 = 1 in 12,271,512  actual 1 in 12,087,204 for test Group A

                Jimmy

                  jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                  Park City, UT
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                  Posted: February 4, 2013, 5:19 pm - IP Logged

                  I just received a newsletter from Steve Player outlining a new system for Pick3.

                  It basically says you can win $1,900,000.00 in ten days playing your state Pick 3 game.

                  All you have to do is pick any 2 different digits correctly for the next draw, and he will provide you the 54 combos to play.

                  Then he says it gets better that you have 5 chances to get the 2 digits correctly and still make money with this system.

                  It only costs a person $54 to start, then as long as you can pick 2 digits correctly once every 5 days then you will be making a ROI between $77,000 and 1.9 million dollars.

                  The rest of the newsletter then uses FUD to say the offer is only good for a short while, its going to be advertised nationally, that once the system leaks out that the states are going to have to change the game.

                  So what are the odds that a person can accurately pick 2 digits correctly for the next pick 3 draw?  I won't do the math for you but its not 1 in 5.  This is why its important to understand a little math and probability to know whether spending hundreds of dollars on a system is a good investment or not.

                  Jimmy


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                    Posted: February 4, 2013, 5:56 pm - IP Logged

                    I just received a newsletter from Steve Player outlining a new system for Pick3.

                    It basically says you can win $1,900,000.00 in ten days playing your state Pick 3 game.

                    All you have to do is pick any 2 different digits correctly for the next draw, and he will provide you the 54 combos to play.

                    Then he says it gets better that you have 5 chances to get the 2 digits correctly and still make money with this system.

                    It only costs a person $54 to start, then as long as you can pick 2 digits correctly once every 5 days then you will be making a ROI between $77,000 and 1.9 million dollars.

                    The rest of the newsletter then uses FUD to say the offer is only good for a short while, its going to be advertised nationally, that once the system leaks out that the states are going to have to change the game.

                    So what are the odds that a person can accurately pick 2 digits correctly for the next pick 3 draw?  I won't do the math for you but its not 1 in 5.  This is why its important to understand a little math and probability to know whether spending hundreds of dollars on a system is a good investment or not.

                    Jimmy

                    Hi Jim.

                    Nice code you have up there.

                    To pick 2 digits correctly every five days is not so easy from experience.  There are times when it seems easier than other times, but that would mean that you cant play this system every day, or even every week for this matter as you would have to be sublimely patient.  And I dont think a $54 bet is a sign of patience.

                    Also curious to what FUD is?

                    For Ur Discretion?

                      CajunWin4's avatar - Lottery-031.jpg
                      Whiskey Island
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                      April 24, 2010
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                      Posted: February 4, 2013, 6:03 pm - IP Logged

                      Hi Jim.

                      Nice code you have up there.

                      To pick 2 digits correctly every five days is not so easy from experience.  There are times when it seems easier than other times, but that would mean that you cant play this system every day, or even every week for this matter as you would have to be sublimely patient.  And I dont think a $54 bet is a sign of patience.

                      Also curious to what FUD is?

                      For Ur Discretion?

                      Steve Players Systems is not Worth the Cost and Paper written on !!! Lottery Post has many Great Systems to use and that really Work .Why would you want to waste your money on Bunk Systems ?


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                        Posted: February 4, 2013, 6:04 pm - IP Logged

                        I just received a newsletter from Steve Player outlining a new system for Pick3.

                        It basically says you can win $1,900,000.00 in ten days playing your state Pick 3 game.

                        All you have to do is pick any 2 different digits correctly for the next draw, and he will provide you the 54 combos to play.

                        Then he says it gets better that you have 5 chances to get the 2 digits correctly and still make money with this system.

                        It only costs a person $54 to start, then as long as you can pick 2 digits correctly once every 5 days then you will be making a ROI between $77,000 and 1.9 million dollars.

                        The rest of the newsletter then uses FUD to say the offer is only good for a short while, its going to be advertised nationally, that once the system leaks out that the states are going to have to change the game.

                        So what are the odds that a person can accurately pick 2 digits correctly for the next pick 3 draw?  I won't do the math for you but its not 1 in 5.  This is why its important to understand a little math and probability to know whether spending hundreds of dollars on a system is a good investment or not.

                        Jimmy

                        Sometimes Steve gives out enough info in his sales letters which allow me to decipher the system. I've done it before on one of his system for P-5 games.

                        This one looks like it can be figured out based on what you wrote here. I'm willing to bet that the rest of the system is similar to his other systems involving progressive wagering. So the meat of the system can probably be figured out without spending hundreds.

                        The possible pairs are 00 through 99. Let's pick one pair, 15.

                        150-151-152-153-154-155-156-157-158-159

                        105-125-135-145-155-165-175-185-195 (no 115 because it's in the line below)

                        510-511-512-513-514-515-516-517-518-519

                        501-521-531-541-551-561-571-581-591 (another dupe-511)

                        015-115-215-315-415-515-615-715-815-915

                        051-251-351-451-551-651-751-851-951 (another dupe-151)

                         

                        A total of 57 combos. He says 54 combos, so maybe this isn't his way, but i can't think of any other way.

                          CajunWin4's avatar - Lottery-031.jpg
                          Whiskey Island
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                          Posted: February 4, 2013, 6:08 pm - IP Logged

                          Sometimes Steve gives out enough info in his sales letters which allow me to decipher the system. I've done it before on one of his system for P-5 games.

                          This one looks like it can be figured out based on what you wrote here. I'm willing to bet that the rest of the system is similar to his other systems involving progressive wagering. So the meat of the system can probably be figured out without spending hundreds.

                          The possible pairs are 00 through 99. Let's pick one pair, 15.

                          150-151-152-153-154-155-156-157-158-159

                          105-125-135-145-155-165-175-185-195 (no 115 because it's in the line below)

                          510-511-512-513-514-515-516-517-518-519

                          501-521-531-541-551-561-571-581-591 (another dupe-511)

                          015-115-215-315-415-515-615-715-815-915

                          051-251-351-451-551-651-751-851-951 (another dupe-151)

                           

                          A total of 57 combos. He says 54 combos, so maybe this isn't his way, but i can't think of any other way.

                          99.9 % of Steve Players Systems uses Pair Tracking for his Systems for Pick 3 , Pick 4 and Pick 5 type games .

                            maximumfun's avatar - Lottery-030.jpg
                            Lavender Rocket

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                            Posted: February 4, 2013, 6:10 pm - IP Logged

                             From Yoho's original post:  "To maximize your chances of winning a jackpot, you should spend your whole lottery allowance on a singledraw. Note,

                            your whole LOTTERY ALLOWANCE, not all your money, lol. NEVER spend more money on the lottery than you can afford. With that said, its better if you bought

                            52 tickets for a single draw than if you bought 1 ticket per week for a year."

                             

                            now you are requiring me to do math... 52*2 = 104 tickets of PB purchased per year/1 per draw... 104*2 = 208$ spent on powerball... so i should purchase 104 tickets on the one draw that i think i would like to win...

                            now THAT would be the problem... when do i want to win it... ok... wednesday sounds good... so i will let y'all know if i win on wednesday (hint:  if its not a RI winner it t'ain't me)

                            ... but the problem with this idea is that i just cannot part with 208$ in one lump sum (cuz then i would have to go 12 months with no powerball play... i would need to be on lifesupport for that to happen!!!)

                              jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                              Park City, UT
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                              Posted: February 4, 2013, 7:19 pm - IP Logged

                              Steve Players Systems is not Worth the Cost and Paper written on !!! Lottery Post has many Great Systems to use and that really Work .Why would you want to waste your money on Bunk Systems ?

                              I wouldn't waste my money on his systems either.  I got on his mailing list because at one time CoinToss mentioned him so I wanted to see what systems he was trying to sell.  As I see it its costing him money to send me his newsletters and catalog when I have no intention of buying any of his systems.  Of course you can just go his web site and get the same information but that's not costing him anything except potentially traffic.

                              A conspiracy theorist could say he was actually working for the state because this particular system he was advocating would cost the Pick3 player $54 per day which would be adding money to the states coffers.  For $300 I would expect him to pick the digits for me, instead of me having to pick them.

                              FUD stands for Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt.  A common tactic from Microsoft back in the day thru marketing to try and convince people to wait for their next version of their software.  In this case he's implying the price of system is going up and eventually the states will change the game to close this betting scheme and you better get it now while the getting is good.

                              My whole point in bringing up Steve Player systems is don't you think if you want to be a lottery advantage player it would be to your benefit to know what the odds are in accurately predicting 2 different digits in a pick 3 game?  Its not 1 in 5 does anyone besides me want to provide the answer?

                              Jimmy

                                 
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