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Fallacies, and two REAL ways of improving your chances

Topic closed. 215 replies. Last post 4 years ago by Kumo.

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Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
Member #30470
January 17, 2006
10350 Posts
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Posted: January 29, 2013, 6:34 pm - IP Logged

Haha Carvella05...If you are a member of the few that Jimmy refers to as , (and i quote) "the squad", then by all means you ought to get yo' self one!

CinCin,

Neat design but wouldn't that be like wearing a sign that said, "Undercover police officer"?

Scared

Green laugh

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

Lep

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

    Avatar
    Columbia, SC
    United States
    Member #135285
    November 21, 2012
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    Posted: January 29, 2013, 7:10 pm - IP Logged

    CinCin,

    Neat design but wouldn't that be like wearing a sign that said, "Undercover police officer"?

    Scared

    Green laugh

    Haha, Coin Toss and Artist....I was just joking around...I couldn't help but laugh when I caught that comment about "the squad". I guess I have a strange sense of humor....

    "If you can DREAM it, you can DO it!"- Walt Disney

      Artist77's avatar - batman14

      United States
      Member #121745
      January 16, 2012
      4788 Posts
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      Posted: January 29, 2013, 7:21 pm - IP Logged

      Haha, Coin Toss and Artist....I was just joking around...I couldn't help but laugh when I caught that comment about "the squad". I guess I have a strange sense of humor....

      Now you know I take art seriously.....See Ya!

      J'aime La France.

        Avatar
        Columbia, SC
        United States
        Member #135285
        November 21, 2012
        584 Posts
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        Posted: January 29, 2013, 7:25 pm - IP Logged

        Now you know I take art seriously.....See Ya!

        LOLOLOLOL....well NOW i do!!!! hehehee

        "If you can DREAM it, you can DO it!"- Walt Disney

          Avatar
          Toronto
          Canada
          Member #138397
          January 26, 2013
          179 Posts
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          Posted: January 29, 2013, 10:22 pm - IP Logged

          Yoho, speaking for myself I think hate is too strong a word. Disdain might be more appropriate. As a new member your coming in here and pointing out the "fallacies" of some of our ways of thinking comes across as disrespectful, just like the new guy in the workplace who starts pointing out problems there on his second day on the job. A lot of what you say has merit, however the delivery and timing of the message could have been better. As the saying goes respect is earned not just given.

          Thank you so much. Thank you so much for being reasonable.

           

          What you said may be true, and as I've said before, if my choice of words hurt you, I'm sorry. I'm certainly not perfect, and I make mistakes. Perhaps my

          way of doing things is a bit too much, and I'm sorry for that. Again, my goal isn't to hurt anyone, blame anyone, laugh at anyone or call anyone stupid.

           

          I'm not trying to stop anyone from dreaming and hoping, and I'm not trying to stop people from trying to find winning methods. The only thing I'm trying 

          to say is, when you're searching for a winning method, you should be careful not to fall into common fallacies. Current mathematics believe that there's

          no way to win. You really need to create some new theories and/or axioms in order to have a math that might change your theoretical winnings. Or you

          can use other methods. But a lot of people seem to think that some stores are lucky because someone won there. It doesn't really work that way.

           

          But I can see your point. Being the prideful and arrogant guy that I am, if a 5 year old pointed out to me errors in my reasoning, I imagine I would be pretty 

          embarassed. I guess I've not built any credibility with myself  before making this thread, and am just suffering the consequences. Perhaps the discussion 

          would've been much more reasonable if I had been smarter. Unfortunately I can't delete this thread from people's minds, so it seems that many already

          have an idea of who I am etched into their minds, an idea that's probably not correct.

            Avatar
            Toronto
            Canada
            Member #138397
            January 26, 2013
            179 Posts
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            Posted: January 29, 2013, 10:58 pm - IP Logged

             The odds may be the same for every combination, but not for every set of combinations.

            To keep things simple consider the old New Jersey 6/48 game. Odds 1 in 12,271,512

            If, instead of any 8 lines, what if we use ALL the numbers randomized among 8 lines?

             1 12 19 26 36 41
             2  7 11 16 32 33
             3 18 21 29 31 35
             4  9 10 13 25 46
             5 14 23 28 37 38
             6  8 17 30 34 47
            15 20 42 44 45 48
            22 24 27 39 40 43

            As only 6 numbers are drawn, no more then 6 lines can contain all the winning numbers among
            them thus effectively changing the game size from 6/48 to 6/36.  Odds of winning a jackpot drop
            from 1 in 12,272,512 to  1 in 1,947,972

            BobP

            Hi bob, thank you for your concern. 

             

            I am quite convinced that what you wrote is not true, but unfortunately to be honest, I don't really understand your reasoning, so I can't give a counter 

            argument.

             

            Can you explain again why the game changes from 6/48 to 6/36? 

             

            Are you trying to say that some subset of 6 lines from your 8 will contain all the winning numbers for sure? Therefore from those 6 lines, since there are 

            only 36 numbers, the chances to win on one of them is 36C6?

              rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
              Texas
              United States
              Member #55889
              October 23, 2007
              5593 Posts
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              Posted: January 29, 2013, 11:32 pm - IP Logged

              Hi bob, thank you for your concern. 

               

              I am quite convinced that what you wrote is not true, but unfortunately to be honest, I don't really understand your reasoning, so I can't give a counter 

              argument.

               

              Can you explain again why the game changes from 6/48 to 6/36? 

               

              Are you trying to say that some subset of 6 lines from your 8 will contain all the winning numbers for sure? Therefore from those 6 lines, since there are 

              only 36 numbers, the chances to win on one of them is 36C6?

              Only 6 numbers are drawn. Since only 6 numbers are drawn, a maximum of 6 lines will contain the 6 numbers drawn. Therefore...

              6 lines times 6 numbers equals 36 numbers in play. The other 2 lines of 12 numbers don't come into play, they don't/can't contain any of the numbers drawn.

              The odds of a 6/36 game are 1,947,792:1.

              I will sometimes play Texas Lotto this way as it's a 6/54 game. 54 numbers fit into 9 lines. It guarantees you will have all 6 winning numbers. The hard part of course is getting the winning numbers on the same line.

              When I buy MM tickets for our pool at work I play this way also. There's 11 of us and 11 lines will play 55 numbers. One number gets left out, but it pretty much gaurantees I will have all the winning numbers in play. It's a way to reduce the odds and that's the name of the game in lottery.

              CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

              A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)


                United States
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                Posted: January 30, 2013, 12:17 am - IP Logged

                Haha Carvella05...If you are a member of the few that Jimmy refers to as , (and i quote) "the squad", then by all means you ought to get yo' self one!

                Sorry CinCin,

                I think the joke is on you.  If you think I'm paranoid for referring to a "squad," check this out.

                http://www.ehow.com/how_4727706_paid-forum-posting.html 

                Do you think LP is too small an operation to benefit from this?

                I hope you get to read this before the Squad does!

                --Jimmy4164


                  United States
                  Member #128790
                  June 2, 2012
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                  Posted: January 30, 2013, 12:23 am - IP Logged

                  The bottom line is, If i said that i have a stock for you to invest that yields less than 1% interest, most of the time, would you buy into it?

                  Heck No!

                  Try to figure out what games have the least odds and work you're way up. You have to crawl before you walk, is a common term. Any attempt in figuring out/short-cuts, which combo will give you the winning JP combinations must be a daunting task. There are no magic tricks on this level. Pick-3 i get, but when dealing with multiple millions, that's another story.

                    Avatar
                    Toronto
                    Canada
                    Member #138397
                    January 26, 2013
                    179 Posts
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                    Posted: January 30, 2013, 1:08 am - IP Logged

                    Only 6 numbers are drawn. Since only 6 numbers are drawn, a maximum of 6 lines will contain the 6 numbers drawn. Therefore...

                    6 lines times 6 numbers equals 36 numbers in play. The other 2 lines of 12 numbers don't come into play, they don't/can't contain any of the numbers drawn.

                    The odds of a 6/36 game are 1,947,792:1.

                    I will sometimes play Texas Lotto this way as it's a 6/54 game. 54 numbers fit into 9 lines. It guarantees you will have all 6 winning numbers. The hard part of course is getting the winning numbers on the same line.

                    When I buy MM tickets for our pool at work I play this way also. There's 11 of us and 11 lines will play 55 numbers. One number gets left out, but it pretty much gaurantees I will have all the winning numbers in play. It's a way to reduce the odds and that's the name of the game in lottery.

                    Wow, okay, thanks bob and buckeye! This is very interesting.

                     

                    I never thought of such a strategy. It really took me quite a while to kind of find a way to tackle this one. Even now I only have a hypothesis on where the 

                    fallacy is, but I don't have any concrete mathematics yet. It seems like it'll be quite troublesome to prove.

                     

                    Basically, the idea is the lines don't have the same probability of winning (kind of) but if you take the sum of the probability of all 8 lines, it will be the same 

                    as the sum of the probabilities of any random 8 lines, i.e the total probability of any group of 8 tickets is the same.


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                      Posted: January 30, 2013, 1:56 am - IP Logged

                      I buy quik picks. Then use those numbers and play thrm on a few more tickets

                        BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
                        Dump Water Florida
                        United States
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                        Posted: January 30, 2013, 4:04 am - IP Logged

                        Wow, okay, thanks bob and buckeye! This is very interesting.

                         

                        I never thought of such a strategy. It really took me quite a while to kind of find a way to tackle this one. Even now I only have a hypothesis on where the 

                        fallacy is, but I don't have any concrete mathematics yet. It seems like it'll be quite troublesome to prove.

                         

                        Basically, the idea is the lines don't have the same probability of winning (kind of) but if you take the sum of the probability of all 8 lines, it will be the same 

                        as the sum of the probabilities of any random 8 lines, i.e the total probability of any group of 8 tickets is the same.

                        Even the simple act of buying a full wheel of 7 numbers for a 6/48 game drops the odds to 1 in  1,753,073.14

                        What makes the difference between these lines and any random set of 8 lines is the 100% guarantee of having all the winning numbers among 6 lines or less, the act of playing all the numbers on a minimun number of lines forces the Pick-6 game into a reduced 6/36 matrix and the Pick-5 game into 5/25.

                        BobP

                        For every sentiment there is an equal and opposite resentment.

                          jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                          Park City, UT
                          United States
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                          January 18, 2009
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                          Posted: January 30, 2013, 4:35 am - IP Logged

                          Even the simple act of buying a full wheel of 7 numbers for a 6/48 game drops the odds to 1 in  1,753,073.14

                          What makes the difference between these lines and any random set of 8 lines is the 100% guarantee of having all the winning numbers among 6 lines or less, the act of playing all the numbers on a minimun number of lines forces the Pick-6 game into a reduced 6/36 matrix and the Pick-5 game into 5/25.

                          BobP

                          For every sentiment there is an equal and opposite resentment.

                          Still not following the logic.

                          If we expand on Jimmy4164 test game 2/5 (i.e. pick 2 numbers from 5 numbers) but instead make it a 2/10 matrix game where you pick 2 numbers from 10 numbers, then the 2/10 game matrix has 45 pairs.

                          If I then played the following 5 pairs for the game:

                          01-02
                          03-04
                          05-06
                          07-08
                          09-10

                          I have covered all 10 numbers in the matrix with 5 picks.  Either 1 or 2 lines will have the winning numbers but it does not become a 2/4 game with odds of 1 in 6.  I have only bought 5 combinations out of a possible 45 combinations or 1 in 9.  How do you make the leap to 1 in 6 odds?

                          Jimmy

                            Avatar
                            Toronto
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                            Posted: January 30, 2013, 5:49 am - IP Logged

                            Even the simple act of buying a full wheel of 7 numbers for a 6/48 game drops the odds to 1 in  1,753,073.14

                            What makes the difference between these lines and any random set of 8 lines is the 100% guarantee of having all the winning numbers among 6 lines or less, the act of playing all the numbers on a minimun number of lines forces the Pick-6 game into a reduced 6/36 matrix and the Pick-5 game into 5/25.

                            BobP

                            For every sentiment there is an equal and opposite resentment.

                            To find the total probability, we add up the probabilities of each of the events.

                             

                            For example, the total probability of getting the jackpot in 4 lines in a 6/48 game would be 1/12271512 + 1/12271512 + 1/12271512 + 1/12271512

                            =4/12271512.

                             

                            The probability of getting the jackpot in 8 lines would be 8/12,271,512.

                             

                            This is the probability for 8 random lines, I think we can agree on that. Now the question becomes what is the probability given your strategy?

                             

                            First, we look at the two lines with no winning numbers. Naturally, the probability is 0.

                             

                            Next, let's take a line from the 6 that are left:

                            The first number has a 6/36 chance of being picked. Then 5/35, because one number is removed from the set.

                            The probability of this line then becomes 6/36*5/35*4/34*3/33*2/32*1/31 = 1,947,792.

                             

                            This is where the confusion comes from. It looks like that the probability of the lines from those 6 have a probability of 1/1,947,792, so your

                            total probability would be 6/1,947,792, which is much higher than 8 random lines, right?

                             

                             

                            Wrong.

                             

                            The reason is, that's only the probability of one of the lines from the 6 lines with the winning numbers, not ALL of them.

                             

                            You look at it this way.

                            The probability of a winning number appearing in the first line is

                            1 - 30/36*29/35*28/34*27/33*26/32*25/31 = 1 - 1/2*29/7*7/17*3/11*13/8*25/31 = 1 - 197925/649264 = 451339/649264

                            This calculation shows the total probability minus the probability of none of the 6 winning numbers appearing. It shows that at least 1 winning number

                            will be in line 1 roughly 70% of the time.

                            In this case,  none of the other 5 lines will be a jackpot winner, because at least 1 winning number is not in that line.

                             

                            In the 197925/649264 times where the first line does not have a winning number, the probability for line two to have a winning number is

                             

                            1 - 24/30*23/29*22/28*21/27*20/26*19/25 = 1/5*23/29*11/1*1/9*1/13*19/5 = 1 - 4807/84825 = 80018/84825 which is approximately 94.3%.

                             

                            So in the case that the first line had no winning numbers, 94.3% of the time there will at least be one winning number in line 2.

                            This means that approximately 98.7% of the time, lines 3-6 have a 0 probability of winning!                 

                             

                             

                            You might skip through all that math, because it gets confusing very quickly. That's why I'll continue the rest in another post, for anyone

                            who cares. The point here is, you're not making every line in the 6 possible lines better. As you saw from above, 3-4 of the lines have 0%

                            chance to win the vast majority of the time. So when you balance it all out, it has the same probability as 8 random lines. 

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                              The land of Canals
                              United States
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                              January 7, 2013
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                              Posted: January 30, 2013, 3:39 pm - IP Logged

                              Haha Carvella05...If you are a member of the few that Jimmy refers to as , (and i quote) "the squad", then by all means you ought to get yo' self one!

                              Hee,hee,hee.... you are very clever.....  Stooges

                              “A day without sunshine is like, you know, night.” 
                               Steve Martin

                              Cool

                                 
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