Fallacies, and two REAL ways of improving your chancesPrev Topic Next Topic

New Topic New Poll

Coin Toss

Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
Member #30,469
January 17, 2006
12,515 Posts
Offline

Jan 29, 2013, 6:34 pm

Quote: Originally posted by CinCin on Jan 29, 2013
Haha Carvella05...If you are a member of the few that Jimmy refers to as , (and i quote) "the squad", then by all means you ought to get yo' self one!

CinCin,

Neat design but wouldn't that be like wearing a sign that said, "Undercover police officer"?

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
CinCin

Columbia, SC
United States
Member #135,277
November 21, 2012
584 Posts
Offline

Jan 29, 2013, 7:10 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on Jan 29, 2013
CinCin,

Neat design but wouldn't that be like wearing a sign that said, "Undercover police officer"?

Haha, Coin Toss and Artist....I was just joking around...I couldn't help but laugh when I caught that comment about "the squad". I guess I have a strange sense of humor....

"If you can DREAM it, you can DO it!"- Walt Disney
Artist77

United States
Member #121,737
January 16, 2012
10,897 Posts
Offline

Jan 29, 2013, 7:21 pm

Quote: Originally posted by CinCin on Jan 29, 2013
Haha, Coin Toss and Artist....I was just joking around...I couldn't help but laugh when I caught that comment about "the squad". I guess I have a strange sense of humor....

Now you know I take art seriously.....

DO NOT BE AFRAID.

How Great Thou Art. God has blessed America.
CinCin

Columbia, SC
United States
Member #135,277
November 21, 2012
584 Posts
Offline

Jan 29, 2013, 7:25 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Artist77 on Jan 29, 2013
Now you know I take art seriously.....

LOLOLOLOL....well NOW i do!!!! hehehee

"If you can DREAM it, you can DO it!"- Walt Disney
yoho

Toronto
Canada
Member #138,389
January 26, 2013
179 Posts
Offline

Jan 29, 2013, 10:22 pm

Quote: Originally posted by msharkey2001 on Jan 28, 2013
Yoho, speaking for myself I think hate is too strong a word. Disdain might be more appropriate. As a new member your coming in here and pointing out the "fallacies" of some of our ways of thinking comes across as disrespectful, just like the new guy in the workplace who starts pointing out problems there on his second day on the job. A lot of what you say has merit, however the delivery and timing of the message could have been better. As the saying goes respect is earned not just given.

Thank you so much. Thank you so much for being reasonable.

What you said may be true, and as I've said before, if my choice of words hurt you, I'm sorry. I'm certainly not perfect, and I make mistakes. Perhaps my

way of doing things is a bit too much, and I'm sorry for that. Again, my goal isn't to hurt anyone, blame anyone, laugh at anyone or call anyone stupid.

I'm not trying to stop anyone from dreaming and hoping, and I'm not trying to stop people from trying to find winning methods. The only thing I'm trying

to say is, when you're searching for a winning method, you should be careful not to fall into common fallacies. Current mathematics believe that there's

no way to win. You really need to create some new theories and/or axioms in order to have a math that might change your theoretical winnings. Or you

can use other methods. But a lot of people seem to think that some stores are lucky because someone won there. It doesn't really work that way.

But I can see your point. Being the prideful and arrogant guy that I am, if a 5 year old pointed out to me errors in my reasoning, I imagine I would be pretty

embarassed. I guess I've not built any credibility with myself before making this thread, and am just suffering the consequences. Perhaps the discussion

would've been much more reasonable if I had been smarter. Unfortunately I can't delete this thread from people's minds, so it seems that many already

have an idea of who I am etched into their minds, an idea that's probably not correct.
yoho

Toronto
Canada
Member #138,389
January 26, 2013
179 Posts
Offline

Jan 29, 2013, 10:58 pm

Quote: Originally posted by BobP on Jan 29, 2013
The odds may be the same for every combination, but not for every set of combinations.

To keep things simple consider the old New Jersey 6/48 game. Odds 1 in 12,271,512

If, instead of any 8 lines, what if we use ALL the numbers randomized among 8 lines?

1 12 19 26 36 41
2 7 11 16 32 33
3 18 21 29 31 35
4 9 10 13 25 46
5 14 23 28 37 38
6 8 17 30 34 47
15 20 42 44 45 48
22 24 27 39 40 43

As only 6 numbers are drawn, no more then 6 lines can contain all the winning numbers among
them thus effectively changing the game size from 6/48 to 6/36. Odds of winning a jackpot drop
from 1 in 12,272,512 to 1 in 1,947,972

BobP

Hi bob, thank you for your concern.

I am quite convinced that what you wrote is not true, but unfortunately to be honest, I don't really understand your reasoning, so I can't give a counter

argument.

Can you explain again why the game changes from 6/48 to 6/36?

Are you trying to say that some subset of 6 lines from your 8 will contain all the winning numbers for sure? Therefore from those 6 lines, since there are

only 36 numbers, the chances to win on one of them is ₃₆C₆?
rcbbuckeye

100

Texas
United States
Member #55,887
October 23, 2007
22,269 Posts
Offline

Jan 29, 2013, 11:32 pm

Quote: Originally posted by yoho on Jan 29, 2013
Hi bob, thank you for your concern.

I am quite convinced that what you wrote is not true, but unfortunately to be honest, I don't really understand your reasoning, so I can't give a counter

argument.

Can you explain again why the game changes from 6/48 to 6/36?

Are you trying to say that some subset of 6 lines from your 8 will contain all the winning numbers for sure? Therefore from those 6 lines, since there are

only 36 numbers, the chances to win on one of them is ₃₆C₆?

Only 6 numbers are drawn. Since only 6 numbers are drawn, a maximum of 6 lines will contain the 6 numbers drawn. Therefore...

6 lines times 6 numbers equals 36 numbers in play. The other 2 lines of 12 numbers don't come into play, they don't/can't contain any of the numbers drawn.

The odds of a 6/36 game are 1,947,792:1.

I will sometimes play Texas Lotto this way as it's a 6/54 game. 54 numbers fit into 9 lines. It guarantees you will have all 6 winning numbers. The hard part of course is getting the winning numbers on the same line.

When I buy MM tickets for our pool at work I play this way also. There's 11 of us and 11 lines will play 55 numbers. One number gets left out, but it pretty much gaurantees I will have all the winning numbers in play. It's a way to reduce the odds and that's the name of the game in lottery.

JUST LOOK AT THE ODDS OF ANY JACKPOT GAME, THAT WILL TELL YOU EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW
jimmy4164

United States
Member #93,941
July 10, 2010
2,180 Posts
Offline

Jan 30, 2013, 12:17 am

Quote: Originally posted by CinCin on Jan 29, 2013
Haha Carvella05...If you are a member of the few that Jimmy refers to as , (and i quote) "the squad", then by all means you ought to get yo' self one!

Sorry CinCin,

I think the joke is on you. If you think I'm paranoid for referring to a "squad," check this out.

http://www.ehow.com/how_4727706_paid-forum-posting.html

Do you think LP is too small an operation to benefit from this?

I hope you get to read this before the Squad does!

--Jimmy4164
onlymoney

United States
Member #128,782
June 2, 2012
5,431 Posts
Offline

Jan 30, 2013, 12:23 am

The bottom line is, If i said that i have a stock for you to invest that yields less than 1% interest, most of the time, would you buy into it?

Heck No!

Try to figure out what games have the least odds and work you're way up. You have to crawl before you walk, is a common term. Any attempt in figuring out/short-cuts, which combo will give you the winning JP combinations must be a daunting task. There are no magic tricks on this level. Pick-3 i get, but when dealing with multiple millions, that's another story.
yoho

Toronto
Canada
Member #138,389
January 26, 2013
179 Posts
Offline

Jan 30, 2013, 1:08 am

Quote: Originally posted by rcbbuckeye on Jan 29, 2013
Only 6 numbers are drawn. Since only 6 numbers are drawn, a maximum of 6 lines will contain the 6 numbers drawn. Therefore...

6 lines times 6 numbers equals 36 numbers in play. The other 2 lines of 12 numbers don't come into play, they don't/can't contain any of the numbers drawn.

The odds of a 6/36 game are 1,947,792:1.

I will sometimes play Texas Lotto this way as it's a 6/54 game. 54 numbers fit into 9 lines. It guarantees you will have all 6 winning numbers. The hard part of course is getting the winning numbers on the same line.

When I buy MM tickets for our pool at work I play this way also. There's 11 of us and 11 lines will play 55 numbers. One number gets left out, but it pretty much gaurantees I will have all the winning numbers in play. It's a way to reduce the odds and that's the name of the game in lottery.

Wow, okay, thanks bob and buckeye! This is very interesting.

I never thought of such a strategy. It really took me quite a while to kind of find a way to tackle this one. Even now I only have a hypothesis on where the

fallacy is, but I don't have any concrete mathematics yet. It seems like it'll be quite troublesome to prove.

Basically, the idea is the lines don't have the same probability of winning (kind of) but if you take the sum of the probability of all 8 lines, it will be the same

as the sum of the probabilities of any random 8 lines, i.e the total probability of any group of 8 tickets is the same.
Pick4ologist

United States
Member #137,420
January 3, 2013
469 Posts
Offline

Jan 30, 2013, 1:56 am

I buy quik picks. Then use those numbers and play thrm on a few more tickets
BobP

Dump Water Florida
United States
Member #380
June 5, 2002
3,678 Posts
Offline

Jan 30, 2013, 4:04 am

Quote: Originally posted by yoho on Jan 30, 2013
Wow, okay, thanks bob and buckeye! This is very interesting.

I never thought of such a strategy. It really took me quite a while to kind of find a way to tackle this one. Even now I only have a hypothesis on where the

fallacy is, but I don't have any concrete mathematics yet. It seems like it'll be quite troublesome to prove.

Basically, the idea is the lines don't have the same probability of winning (kind of) but if you take the sum of the probability of all 8 lines, it will be the same

as the sum of the probabilities of any random 8 lines, i.e the total probability of any group of 8 tickets is the same.

Even the simple act of buying a full wheel of 7 numbers for a 6/48 game drops the odds to 1 in 1,753,073.14

What makes the difference between these lines and any random set of 8 lines is the 100% guarantee of having all the winning numbers among 6 lines or less, the act of playing all the numbers on a minimun number of lines forces the Pick-6 game into a reduced 6/36 matrix and the Pick-5 game into 5/25.

BobP

For every sentiment there is an equal and opposite resentment.
jimjwright

iOS Developer

Crested Butte, CO
United States
Member #69,861
January 18, 2009
1,865 Posts
Online

Jan 30, 2013, 4:35 am

Quote: Originally posted by BobP on Jan 30, 2013
Even the simple act of buying a full wheel of 7 numbers for a 6/48 game drops the odds to 1 in 1,753,073.14

What makes the difference between these lines and any random set of 8 lines is the 100% guarantee of having all the winning numbers among 6 lines or less, the act of playing all the numbers on a minimun number of lines forces the Pick-6 game into a reduced 6/36 matrix and the Pick-5 game into 5/25.

BobP

For every sentiment there is an equal and opposite resentment.

Still not following the logic.

If we expand on Jimmy4164 test game 2/5 (i.e. pick 2 numbers from 5 numbers) but instead make it a 2/10 matrix game where you pick 2 numbers from 10 numbers, then the 2/10 game matrix has 45 pairs.

If I then played the following 5 pairs for the game:

01-02
03-04
05-06
07-08
09-10

I have covered all 10 numbers in the matrix with 5 picks. Either 1 or 2 lines will have the winning numbers but it does not become a 2/4 game with odds of 1 in 6. I have only bought 5 combinations out of a possible 45 combinations or 1 in 9. How do you make the leap to 1 in 6 odds?

Jimmy
yoho

Toronto
Canada
Member #138,389
January 26, 2013
179 Posts
Offline

Jan 30, 2013, 5:49 am

Quote: Originally posted by BobP on Jan 30, 2013
Even the simple act of buying a full wheel of 7 numbers for a 6/48 game drops the odds to 1 in 1,753,073.14

What makes the difference between these lines and any random set of 8 lines is the 100% guarantee of having all the winning numbers among 6 lines or less, the act of playing all the numbers on a minimun number of lines forces the Pick-6 game into a reduced 6/36 matrix and the Pick-5 game into 5/25.

BobP

For every sentiment there is an equal and opposite resentment.

To find the total probability, we add up the probabilities of each of the events.

For example, the total probability of getting the jackpot in 4 lines in a 6/48 game would be 1/12271512 + 1/12271512 + 1/12271512 + 1/12271512

=4/12271512.

The probability of getting the jackpot in 8 lines would be 8/12,271,512.

This is the probability for 8 random lines, I think we can agree on that. Now the question becomes what is the probability given your strategy?

First, we look at the two lines with no winning numbers. Naturally, the probability is 0.

Next, let's take a line from the 6 that are left:

The first number has a 6/36 chance of being picked. Then 5/35, because one number is removed from the set.

The probability of this line then becomes 6/36*5/35*4/34*3/33*2/32*1/31 = 1,947,792.

This is where the confusion comes from. It looks like that the probability of the lines from those 6 have a probability of 1/1,947,792, so your

total probability would be 6/1,947,792, which is much higher than 8 random lines, right?

Wrong.

The reason is, that's only the probability of one of the lines from the 6 lines with the winning numbers, not ALL of them.

You look at it this way.

The probability of a winning number appearing in the first line is

1 - 30/36*29/35*28/34*27/33*26/32*25/31 = 1 - 1/2*29/7*7/17*3/11*13/8*25/31 = 1 - 197925/649264 = 451339/649264

This calculation shows the total probability minus the probability of none of the 6 winning numbers appearing. It shows that at least 1 winning number

will be in line 1 roughly 70% of the time.

In this case, none of the other 5 lines will be a jackpot winner, because at least 1 winning number is not in that line.

In the 197925/649264 times where the first line does not have a winning number, the probability for line two to have a winning number is

1 - 24/30*23/29*22/28*21/27*20/26*19/25 = 1/5*23/29*11/1*1/9*1/13*19/5 = 1 - 4807/84825 = 80018/84825 which is approximately 94.3%.

So in the case that the first line had no winning numbers, 94.3% of the time there will at least be one winning number in line 2.

This means that approximately 98.7% of the time, lines 3-6 have a 0 probability of winning!

You might skip through all that math, because it gets confusing very quickly. That's why I'll continue the rest in another post, for anyone

who cares. The point here is, you're not making every line in the 6 possible lines better. As you saw from above, 3-4 of the lines have 0%

chance to win the vast majority of the time. So when you balance it all out, it has the same probability as 8 random lines.
DG1USA

The land of Canals
United States
Member #137,581
January 7, 2013
168 Posts
Offline

Jan 30, 2013, 3:39 pm

Quote: Originally posted by CinCin on Jan 29, 2013
Haha Carvella05...If you are a member of the few that Jimmy refers to as , (and i quote) "the squad", then by all means you ought to get yo' self one!

Hee,hee,hee.... you are very clever.....

“A day without sunshine is like, you know, night.”
Steve Martin

New Topic New Poll

Subscribe to this topic

Fallacies, and two REAL ways of improving your chancesPrev TopicNext Topic

Fallacies, and two REAL ways of improving your chancesPrev Topic Next Topic