Columbia, SC United States Member #135285 November 21, 2012 584 Posts Offline

Posted: January 29, 2013, 7:10 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on January 29, 2013

CinCin,

Neat design but wouldn't that be like wearing a sign that said, "Undercover police officer"?

Haha, Coin Toss and Artist....I was just joking around...I couldn't help but laugh when I caught that comment about "the squad". I guess I have a strange sense of humor....

"If you can DREAM it, you can DO it!"- Walt Disney

United States Member #121745 January 16, 2012 4788 Posts Offline

Posted: January 29, 2013, 7:21 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by CinCin on January 29, 2013

Haha, Coin Toss and Artist....I was just joking around...I couldn't help but laugh when I caught that comment about "the squad". I guess I have a strange sense of humor....

Toronto Canada Member #138397 January 26, 2013 179 Posts Offline

Posted: January 29, 2013, 10:22 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by msharkey2001 on January 28, 2013

Yoho, speaking for myself I think hate is too strong a word. Disdain might be more appropriate. As a new member your coming in here and pointing out the "fallacies" of some of our ways of thinking comes across as disrespectful, just like the new guy in the workplace who starts pointing out problems there on his second day on the job. A lot of what you say has merit, however the delivery and timing of the message could have been better. As the saying goes respect is earned not just given.

Thank you so much. Thank you so much for being reasonable.

What you said may be true, and as I've said before, if my choice of words hurt you, I'm sorry. I'm certainly not perfect, and I make mistakes. Perhaps my

way of doing things is a bit too much, and I'm sorry for that. Again, my goal isn't to hurt anyone, blame anyone, laugh at anyone or call anyone stupid.

I'm not trying to stop anyone from dreaming and hoping, and I'm not trying to stop people from trying to find winning methods. The only thing I'm trying

to say is, when you're searching for a winning method, you should be careful not to fall into common fallacies. Current mathematics believe that there's

no way to win. You really need to create some new theories and/or axioms in order to have a math that might change your theoretical winnings. Or you

can use other methods. But a lot of people seem to think that some stores are lucky because someone won there. It doesn't really work that way.

But I can see your point. Being the prideful and arrogant guy that I am, if a 5 year old pointed out to me errors in my reasoning, I imagine I would be pretty

embarassed. I guess I've not built any credibility with myself before making this thread, and am just suffering the consequences. Perhaps the discussion

would've been much more reasonable if I had been smarter. Unfortunately I can't delete this thread from people's minds, so it seems that many already

have an idea of who I am etched into their minds, an idea that's probably not correct.

As only 6 numbers are drawn, no more then 6 lines can contain all the winning numbers among them thus effectively changing the game size from 6/48 to 6/36. Odds of winning a jackpot drop from 1 in 12,272,512 to 1 in 1,947,972

BobP

Hi bob, thank you for your concern.

I am quite convinced that what you wrote is not true, but unfortunately to be honest, I don't really understand your reasoning, so I can't give a counter

argument.

Can you explain again why the game changes from 6/48 to 6/36?

Are you trying to say that some subset of 6 lines from your 8 will contain all the winning numbers for sure? Therefore from those 6 lines, since there are

only 36 numbers, the chances to win on one of them is _{36}C_{6}?

Texas United States Member #55889 October 23, 2007 5593 Posts Offline

Posted: January 29, 2013, 11:32 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by yoho on January 29, 2013

Hi bob, thank you for your concern.

I am quite convinced that what you wrote is not true, but unfortunately to be honest, I don't really understand your reasoning, so I can't give a counter

argument.

Can you explain again why the game changes from 6/48 to 6/36?

Are you trying to say that some subset of 6 lines from your 8 will contain all the winning numbers for sure? Therefore from those 6 lines, since there are

only 36 numbers, the chances to win on one of them is _{36}C_{6}?

Only 6 numbers are drawn. Since only 6 numbers are drawn, a maximum of 6 lines will contain the 6 numbers drawn. Therefore...

6 lines times 6 numbers equals 36 numbers in play. The other 2 lines of 12 numbers don't come into play, they don't/can't contain any of the numbers drawn.

The odds of a 6/36 game are 1,947,792:1.

I will sometimes play Texas Lotto this way as it's a 6/54 game. 54 numbers fit into 9 lines. It guarantees you will have all 6 winning numbers. The hard part of course is getting the winning numbers on the same line.

When I buy MM tickets for our pool at work I play this way also. There's 11 of us and 11 lines will play 55 numbers. One number gets left out, but it pretty much gaurantees I will have all the winning numbers in play. It's a way to reduce the odds and that's the name of the game in lottery.

United States Member #128790 June 2, 2012 5431 Posts Offline

Posted: January 30, 2013, 12:23 am - IP Logged

The bottom line is, If i said that i have a stock for you to invest that yields less than 1% interest, most of the time, would you buy into it?

Heck No!

Try to figure out what games have the least odds and work you're way up. You have to crawl before you walk, is a common term. Any attempt in figuring out/short-cuts, which combo will give you the winning JP combinations must be a daunting task. There are no magic tricks on this level. Pick-3 i get, but when dealing with multiple millions, that's another story.

Toronto Canada Member #138397 January 26, 2013 179 Posts Offline

Posted: January 30, 2013, 1:08 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by rcbbuckeye on January 29, 2013

Only 6 numbers are drawn. Since only 6 numbers are drawn, a maximum of 6 lines will contain the 6 numbers drawn. Therefore...

6 lines times 6 numbers equals 36 numbers in play. The other 2 lines of 12 numbers don't come into play, they don't/can't contain any of the numbers drawn.

The odds of a 6/36 game are 1,947,792:1.

I will sometimes play Texas Lotto this way as it's a 6/54 game. 54 numbers fit into 9 lines. It guarantees you will have all 6 winning numbers. The hard part of course is getting the winning numbers on the same line.

When I buy MM tickets for our pool at work I play this way also. There's 11 of us and 11 lines will play 55 numbers. One number gets left out, but it pretty much gaurantees I will have all the winning numbers in play. It's a way to reduce the odds and that's the name of the game in lottery.

Wow, okay, thanks bob and buckeye! This is very interesting.

I never thought of such a strategy. It really took me quite a while to kind of find a way to tackle this one. Even now I only have a hypothesis on where the

fallacy is, but I don't have any concrete mathematics yet. It seems like it'll be quite troublesome to prove.

Basically, the idea is the lines don't have the same probability of winning (kind of) but if you take the sum of the probability of all 8 lines, it will be the same

as the sum of the probabilities of any random 8 lines, i.e the total probability of any group of 8 tickets is the same.

Dump Water Florida United States Member #380 June 5, 2002 3103 Posts Offline

Posted: January 30, 2013, 4:04 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by yoho on January 30, 2013

Wow, okay, thanks bob and buckeye! This is very interesting.

I never thought of such a strategy. It really took me quite a while to kind of find a way to tackle this one. Even now I only have a hypothesis on where the

fallacy is, but I don't have any concrete mathematics yet. It seems like it'll be quite troublesome to prove.

Basically, the idea is the lines don't have the same probability of winning (kind of) but if you take the sum of the probability of all 8 lines, it will be the same

as the sum of the probabilities of any random 8 lines, i.e the total probability of any group of 8 tickets is the same.

Even the simple act of buying a full wheel of 7 numbers for a 6/48 game drops the odds to 1 in 1,753,073.14

What makes the difference between these lines and any random set of 8 lines is the 100% guarantee of having all the winning numbers among 6 lines or less, the act of playing all the numbers on a minimun number of lines forces the Pick-6 game into a reduced 6/36 matrix and the Pick-5 game into 5/25.

BobP

For every sentiment there is an equal and opposite resentment.

Park City, UT United States Member #69864 January 18, 2009 993 Posts Offline

Posted: January 30, 2013, 4:35 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by BobP on January 30, 2013

Even the simple act of buying a full wheel of 7 numbers for a 6/48 game drops the odds to 1 in 1,753,073.14

What makes the difference between these lines and any random set of 8 lines is the 100% guarantee of having all the winning numbers among 6 lines or less, the act of playing all the numbers on a minimun number of lines forces the Pick-6 game into a reduced 6/36 matrix and the Pick-5 game into 5/25.

BobP

For every sentiment there is an equal and opposite resentment.

Still not following the logic.

If we expand on Jimmy4164 test game 2/5 (i.e. pick 2 numbers from 5 numbers) but instead make it a 2/10 matrix game where you pick 2 numbers from 10 numbers, then the 2/10 game matrix has 45 pairs.

If I then played the following 5 pairs for the game:

01-02 03-04 05-06 07-08 09-10

I have covered all 10 numbers in the matrix with 5 picks. Either 1 or 2 lines will have the winning numbers but it does not become a 2/4 game with odds of 1 in 6. I have only bought 5 combinations out of a possible 45 combinations or 1 in 9. How do you make the leap to 1 in 6 odds?

Toronto Canada Member #138397 January 26, 2013 179 Posts Offline

Posted: January 30, 2013, 5:49 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by BobP on January 30, 2013

Even the simple act of buying a full wheel of 7 numbers for a 6/48 game drops the odds to 1 in 1,753,073.14

What makes the difference between these lines and any random set of 8 lines is the 100% guarantee of having all the winning numbers among 6 lines or less, the act of playing all the numbers on a minimun number of lines forces the Pick-6 game into a reduced 6/36 matrix and the Pick-5 game into 5/25.

BobP

For every sentiment there is an equal and opposite resentment.

To find the total probability, we add up the probabilities of each of the events.

For example, the total probability of getting the jackpot in 4 lines in a 6/48 game would be 1/12271512 + 1/12271512 + 1/12271512 + 1/12271512

=4/12271512.

The probability of getting the jackpot in 8 lines would be 8/12,271,512.

This is the probability for 8 random lines, I think we can agree on that. Now the question becomes what is the probability given your strategy?

First, we look at the two lines with no winning numbers. Naturally, the probability is 0.

Next, let's take a line from the 6 that are left:

The first number has a 6/36 chance of being picked. Then 5/35, because one number is removed from the set.

The probability of this line then becomes 6/36*5/35*4/34*3/33*2/32*1/31 = 1,947,792.

This is where the confusion comes from. It looks like that the probability of the lines from those 6 have a probability of 1/1,947,792, so your

total probability would be 6/1,947,792, which is much higher than 8 random lines, right?

Wrong.

The reason is, that's only the probability of one of the lines from the 6 lines with the winning numbers, not ALL of them.

You look at it this way.

The probability of a winning number appearing in the first line is