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# Fallacies, and two REAL ways of improving your chances

Topic closed. 215 replies. Last post 4 years ago by Kumo.

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NASHVILLE, TENN
United States
Member #33372
February 20, 2006
1044 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 28, 2013, 10:18 am - IP Logged

My desire is to improve my chances of securing a jackpot.  That is why I am a member of this site.  Yes, I know the math is against me.  Yes, I know the odds are against me.  Yes, I know some members here are against me.  So be it.

No matter what anyone says, no matter how many statisitic books anyone drags out, I will continue to look for ways to increase my probability of winning.  Otherwise I would join DumbLuck.com.

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
19895 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 28, 2013, 10:18 am - IP Logged

Again, if you don't like my wording, I can't do anything about it. I clearly stated in my post that you CANNOT increase the overall chances. If you continue to choose

to purposely interpret my post in the wrong way, I cannot help you.

However, your third paragraph makes a point. I may not have been clear enough. For my first point, I meant you should not buy the same ticket more than once

in the SAME DRAW. Of course the chances of 4-13-21-35-43-47 has an equal chance of appearing in any draw. There's no difference in playing that every draw

than to play something different every draw. What IS different, however, is if you're buying the same ticket more than once for the same draw. Instead of increasing

your chances to win the jackpot, you're increasing the number of times you will win, if you win.

If you want to see math, then I'll show you some. Let's take a really simple lottery game, where there is only a jackpot and no other prizes, because that's what

most players are after and care about, and is what I addressed in my points. Let's say the goal is to hit 2 numbers, with replacement, from 1-10.

Now, Let's say you bought 10^2, or 100 tickets for the same draw, each one being different. You covered all the possibilities, so you have a 100% chance of winning

the jackpot.

Now suppose you bought 2 tickets per draw for 50 draws. You're still buying 100 tickets in total, but clearly there's a chance you might not win the jackpot at all.

But to compensate, you might win the jackpot twice, or 3 times or 50 times.

Now suppose again, that you bought 100 tickets for the same draw, but you bought the SAME numbers 100 times. The odds of you winning are still 1%. It's just

that if you win, you win with all 100 tickets.

Make sense?

My claim was that if you disregard winning the jackpot many times, i.e treat it the same way as winning once, then buying different tickets for the same time

increases your odds of winning the jackpot.

Put mathematically, if your odds of winning the jackpot with a single ticket is 1/x, then:

Odds of winning once or more with y unique tickets for a single draw is:

y/x

Odds of winning once or more with y tickets but only y - z unique tickets for a single draw is:

(y - z)/x

Odds of winning once or more with 1 ticket for y draws would be:

(1)1/x +

(1 - 1/x)(1/x) + <--- this is because 1/x of the time, the condition has already been satisfied, so you only look at the remaining cases.

(1 - 1/x - (1 - 1/x)(1/x))(1/x) + <--- again, the condition has been satisfied by some more cases so you only look at the remaining ones.

(1 - 1/x - (1 - 1/x)(1/x)) - (1 - 1/x - (1 - 1/x)(1/x))(1/x))(1/x) +

^--- each time you have to subtract the cases that satisfies the condition from above and multiply by (1/x), which is the chance of winning in that draw

So, if you call each of these cases Cy where C denotes the probability of having won the jackpot for the first time at draw y, then the total probability comes to

1(1/x) + (1 - C1)(1/x) + (1 - C - C2)(1/x) + ... + (1 - C1  - C2 - ... - Cy-1)(1/x) = (y - (y - 1)C1 - ... - Cy-1)/x

Since C > 0 for all y > 0, (y - (y - 1)C1 - ... - Cy-1) < y.

Thus (y - (y - 1)C1 - ... - Cy-1)/x < y/x, as is the desired result.

Also, (y - z)/x < y/x when z > 0, i.e there are duplicate tickets.

If you have anymore concerns, feel free to ask. I'm sorry I didn't resort to name calling and insults, it's just not my style. If I realized I was wrong, as I often do,

I may be slightly embarassed but I will admit my error.

Edit: added cases for duplicate tickets

Folks may have trouble reading you post because your browser allow you to write longer lines than will
fit on a page and the articles are so long that you have go down off the page to index the lines so you
can read the end of the lines.  Your posts aren't being read completely because they can't be seen
completely.

Maybe you should try using a different browser.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

Toronto
Member #138397
January 26, 2013
179 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 28, 2013, 10:30 am - IP Logged

I'm not against looking for ways to increase your chances at all. What I'm saying is, while you're looking for such methods, be careful not to fall into some

common logical fallacies, that's all.

@RJOh:

Thank you for your advice. Unfortunately, I think it's not because of the browser but because of the nbsps. My spacebar is broken, and as a result, I have to copy

spaces with alt codes. So I'm not sure if I can fix this issue, but I'll try to keep lines shorter.

United States
Member #116268
September 7, 2011
20244 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 28, 2013, 10:32 am - IP Logged

Folks may have trouble reading you post because your browser allow you to write longer lines than will
fit on a page and the articles are so long that you have go down off the page to index the lines so you
can read the end of the lines.  Your posts aren't being read completely because they can't be seen
completely.

Maybe you should try using a different browser.

United States
Member #116268
September 7, 2011
20244 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 28, 2013, 10:35 am - IP Logged

I'm not against looking for ways to increase your chances at all. What I'm saying is, while you're looking for such methods, be careful not to fall into some

common logical fallacies, that's all.

@RJOh:

Thank you for your advice. Unfortunately, I think it's not because of the browser but because of the nbsps. My spacebar is broken, and as a result, I have to copy

spaces with alt codes. So I'm not sure if I can fix this issue, but I'll try to keep lines shorter.

United States
Member #93947
July 10, 2010
2180 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 28, 2013, 11:35 am - IP Logged

Search for JadeLottery "If you had 10 bucks to  bet ...".  It will be interesting to see if Jimmy4164 will back your fallicous statement because he agreed with Doug at the time that there is no advantage in playing 10 tickets for 1 draw vs playing 10 draws with 1 ticket.

The title of your thread is "Fallacies, and two REAL ways of improving your chances".  Sounds like to me your saying I can improve my chances by playing your two strategies.

Again it will be interesting to see if your new friend Jimmy4164 will back your new statement that your two strategies do the following:

"That it improves your chances of winning the jackpot ONCE."

Jimmy

jimjwright,

It's just a semantic problem.  Jadelottery showed that the expected value of betting large amounts on one draw vs the same amount spread out over multiple draws is the SAME.  Using different words, this is what yoho is saying.

I think this post clarifies the issue further with an example.

--Jimmy4164

Park City, UT
United States
Member #69864
January 18, 2009
993 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 28, 2013, 12:07 pm - IP Logged

I agree you are not increasing your overall odds by eliminating numbers using your example unless the lottery prognosticator can show they can successfully eliminate a number at a  higher rate than 60% for a statistically significant number of samples.  Agreeing on the "statistically significant number of samples" seems to be the source of contention or debate.

Jimmy

United States
Member #137428
January 3, 2013
469 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 28, 2013, 12:39 pm - IP Logged

deep Conversation.   Let me get dressed to go down to Georgia lottery airport office to cash in some pick 4 winning tickets..... That I got just from wheeling the hottest 7 digits....from previous combined midday evening 40 draws..... Life is great..

Park City, UT
United States
Member #69864
January 18, 2009
993 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 28, 2013, 12:42 pm - IP Logged

Anybody can do that in Georgia but can you do it in Pennsylvania?

Jimmy

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
19895 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 28, 2013, 12:44 pm - IP Logged

deep Conversation.   Let me get dressed to go down to Georgia lottery airport office to cash in some pick 4 winning tickets..... That I got just from wheeling the hottest 7 digits....from previous combined midday evening 40 draws..... Life is great..

Let me get dressed to go down to Georgia lottery airport office to cash in some pick 4 winning tickets...

You don't need any one at LP to let you do that, you're on your own.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

United States
Member #137428
January 3, 2013
469 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 28, 2013, 12:50 pm - IP Logged

nope Not in pa. I bypassed that state while looking at their prior results....

Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
United States
Member #73904
April 28, 2009
14903 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 28, 2013, 12:51 pm - IP Logged

I'm not against looking for ways to increase your chances at all. What I'm saying is, while you're looking for such methods, be careful not to fall into some

common logical fallacies, that's all.

@RJOh:

Thank you for your advice. Unfortunately, I think it's not because of the browser but because of the nbsps. My spacebar is broken, and as a result, I have to copy

spaces with alt codes. So I'm not sure if I can fix this issue, but I'll try to keep lines shorter.

If you can't afford a keyboard (they're pretty cheap) maybe you should try playing the lottery sometime to see if you can win enough to buy one.

It's only a dollar, El Cheapo.

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
19895 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 28, 2013, 12:52 pm - IP Logged

My desire is to improve my chances of securing a jackpot.  That is why I am a member of this site.  Yes, I know the math is against me.  Yes, I know the odds are against me.  Yes, I know some members here are against me.  So be it.

No matter what anyone says, no matter how many statisitic books anyone drags out, I will continue to look for ways to increase my probability of winning.  Otherwise I would join DumbLuck.com.

I think most LP members are here for that same reason in spite the occasional member like Yoyo thinking only a few of us are aware of the odds of accomplishing that task.  I know conventional wisdom says  it's not likely to happen and if it does it will defy conventional math and logic so they have no relativity here.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
United States
Member #73904
April 28, 2009
14903 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 28, 2013, 12:57 pm - IP Logged

deep Conversation.   Let me get dressed to go down to Georgia lottery airport office to cash in some pick 4 winning tickets..... That I got just from wheeling the hottest 7 digits....from previous combined midday evening 40 draws..... Life is great..

Don't forget to post them all.

We get inspired by seeing winning tickets!

Toronto
Member #138397
January 26, 2013
179 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 28, 2013, 1:26 pm - IP Logged

Don't put words in my mouth (or in this case, thoughts in my head). I never said anything about thinking that only a few are aware of the odds.

It saddens me how few are actually willing to open their minds and actually try to understand other people's opinions.

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