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Fallacies, and two REAL ways of improving your chances

Topic closed. 215 replies. Last post 4 years ago by Kumo.

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NASHVILLE, TENN
United States
Member #33372
February 20, 2006
1044 Posts
Offline
Posted: January 28, 2013, 10:18 am - IP Logged

My desire is to improve my chances of securing a jackpot.  That is why I am a member of this site.  Yes, I know the math is against me.  Yes, I know the odds are against me.  Yes, I know some members here are against me.  So be it. 

No matter what anyone says, no matter how many statisitic books anyone drags out, I will continue to look for ways to increase my probability of winning.  Otherwise I would join DumbLuck.com.

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
    United States
    Member #9
    March 24, 2001
    19895 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: January 28, 2013, 10:18 am - IP Logged

    Again, if you don't like my wording, I can't do anything about it. I clearly stated in my post that you CANNOT increase the overall chances. If you continue to choose

    to purposely interpret my post in the wrong way, I cannot help you. 

     

    However, your third paragraph makes a point. I may not have been clear enough. For my first point, I meant you should not buy the same ticket more than once

    in the SAME DRAW. Of course the chances of 4-13-21-35-43-47 has an equal chance of appearing in any draw. There's no difference in playing that every draw 

    than to play something different every draw. What IS different, however, is if you're buying the same ticket more than once for the same draw. Instead of increasing 

    your chances to win the jackpot, you're increasing the number of times you will win, if you win. 

     

    If you want to see math, then I'll show you some. Let's take a really simple lottery game, where there is only a jackpot and no other prizes, because that's what 

    most players are after and care about, and is what I addressed in my points. Let's say the goal is to hit 2 numbers, with replacement, from 1-10. 

     

    Now, Let's say you bought 10^2, or 100 tickets for the same draw, each one being different. You covered all the possibilities, so you have a 100% chance of winning

    the jackpot.

     

    Now suppose you bought 2 tickets per draw for 50 draws. You're still buying 100 tickets in total, but clearly there's a chance you might not win the jackpot at all.

    But to compensate, you might win the jackpot twice, or 3 times or 50 times.

     

    Now suppose again, that you bought 100 tickets for the same draw, but you bought the SAME numbers 100 times. The odds of you winning are still 1%. It's just

    that if you win, you win with all 100 tickets.

     

    Make sense?

    My claim was that if you disregard winning the jackpot many times, i.e treat it the same way as winning once, then buying different tickets for the same time 

    increases your odds of winning the jackpot.

     

    Put mathematically, if your odds of winning the jackpot with a single ticket is 1/x, then:

    Odds of winning once or more with y unique tickets for a single draw is:

     y/x

    Odds of winning once or more with y tickets but only y - z unique tickets for a single draw is:

    (y - z)/x

    Odds of winning once or more with 1 ticket for y draws would be:

    (1)1/x + 

    (1 - 1/x)(1/x) + <--- this is because 1/x of the time, the condition has already been satisfied, so you only look at the remaining cases.

    (1 - 1/x - (1 - 1/x)(1/x))(1/x) + <--- again, the condition has been satisfied by some more cases so you only look at the remaining ones.

    (1 - 1/x - (1 - 1/x)(1/x)) - (1 - 1/x - (1 - 1/x)(1/x))(1/x))(1/x) +

    ^--- each time you have to subtract the cases that satisfies the condition from above and multiply by (1/x), which is the chance of winning in that draw

     

    So, if you call each of these cases Cy where C denotes the probability of having won the jackpot for the first time at draw y, then the total probability comes to

     

    1(1/x) + (1 - C1)(1/x) + (1 - C - C2)(1/x) + ... + (1 - C1  - C2 - ... - Cy-1)(1/x) = (y - (y - 1)C1 - ... - Cy-1)/x

    Since C > 0 for all y > 0, (y - (y - 1)C1 - ... - Cy-1) < y.

     

    Thus (y - (y - 1)C1 - ... - Cy-1)/x < y/x, as is the desired result.

    Also, (y - z)/x < y/x when z > 0, i.e there are duplicate tickets.

     

    If you have anymore concerns, feel free to ask. I'm sorry I didn't resort to name calling and insults, it's just not my style. If I realized I was wrong, as I often do,

    I may be slightly embarassed but I will admit my error.

     

    Edit: added cases for duplicate tickets

    Folks may have trouble reading you post because your browser allow you to write longer lines than will 
    fit on a page and the articles are so long that you have go down off the page to index the lines so you
    can read the end of the lines.  Your posts aren't being read completely because they can't be seen
    completely.

    Maybe you should try using a different browser.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

      Avatar
      Toronto
      Canada
      Member #138397
      January 26, 2013
      179 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: January 28, 2013, 10:30 am - IP Logged

      I'm not against looking for ways to increase your chances at all. What I'm saying is, while you're looking for such methods, be careful not to fall into some 

      common logical fallacies, that's all.

       

      @RJOh:

       

      Thank you for your advice. Unfortunately, I think it's not because of the browser but because of the nbsps. My spacebar is broken, and as a result, I have to copy

      spaces with alt codes. So I'm not sure if I can fix this issue, but I'll try to keep lines shorter.


        United States
        Member #116268
        September 7, 2011
        20244 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: January 28, 2013, 10:32 am - IP Logged

        Folks may have trouble reading you post because your browser allow you to write longer lines than will 
        fit on a page and the articles are so long that you have go down off the page to index the lines so you
        can read the end of the lines.  Your posts aren't being read completely because they can't be seen
        completely.

        Maybe you should try using a different browser.

        I Agree!http://www.lotterypost.com/browsertest?bhcp=1


          United States
          Member #116268
          September 7, 2011
          20244 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: January 28, 2013, 10:35 am - IP Logged

          I'm not against looking for ways to increase your chances at all. What I'm saying is, while you're looking for such methods, be careful not to fall into some 

          common logical fallacies, that's all.

           

          @RJOh:

           

          Thank you for your advice. Unfortunately, I think it's not because of the browser but because of the nbsps. My spacebar is broken, and as a result, I have to copy

          spaces with alt codes. So I'm not sure if I can fix this issue, but I'll try to keep lines shorter.

          Sorry, I cant read your posts either. Try Google Chrome, it works great.


            United States
            Member #93947
            July 10, 2010
            2180 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: January 28, 2013, 11:35 am - IP Logged

            Search for JadeLottery "If you had 10 bucks to  bet ...".  It will be interesting to see if Jimmy4164 will back your fallicous statement because he agreed with Doug at the time that there is no advantage in playing 10 tickets for 1 draw vs playing 10 draws with 1 ticket.

            The title of your thread is "Fallacies, and two REAL ways of improving your chances".  Sounds like to me your saying I can improve my chances by playing your two strategies.

            Out of one side of your mouth your saying that playing 1-2-3-4-5-6, and 4-13-21-35-43-47 have the same equal odds.  Now out of the other side of your mouth your saying I will have better odds if I don't play 4-13-21-35-43-47 in consecutive draws because magically once I have played a number with my money filled out with my pencil on a play slip that it will no longer have an equal chance in the next draw.  That is kuckoo logic.  Your the one making the claim so you use math to prove how playing 4-13-21-35-43-47 in consecutive draws is a bad bet.  I'm betting your not going to reply with any math but instead start insulting me like you accused others of doing to you.  You talk about using math but I have yet to see any math in any of your posts to support your statements but instead just hand waving and your own personal beliefs.

            Again it will be interesting to see if your new friend Jimmy4164 will back your new statement that your two strategies do the following:

            "That it improves your chances of winning the jackpot ONCE."

            Jimmy

            jimjwright,

            It's just a semantic problem.  Jadelottery showed that the expected value of betting large amounts on one draw vs the same amount spread out over multiple draws is the SAME.  Using different words, this is what yoho is saying.

            I think this post clarifies the issue further with an example.

            http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/255566/2893943 

            --Jimmy4164

              jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
              Park City, UT
              United States
              Member #69864
              January 18, 2009
              993 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: January 28, 2013, 12:07 pm - IP Logged

              I agree you are not increasing your overall odds by eliminating numbers using your example unless the lottery prognosticator can show they can successfully eliminate a number at a  higher rate than 60% for a statistically significant number of samples.  Agreeing on the "statistically significant number of samples" seems to be the source of contention or debate.

              Jimmy


                United States
                Member #137428
                January 3, 2013
                469 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: January 28, 2013, 12:39 pm - IP Logged

                deep Conversation.   Let me get dressed to go down to Georgia lottery airport office to cash in some pick 4 winning tickets..... That I got just from wheeling the hottest 7 digits....from previous combined midday evening 40 draws..... Life is great..

                  jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                  Park City, UT
                  United States
                  Member #69864
                  January 18, 2009
                  993 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: January 28, 2013, 12:42 pm - IP Logged

                  Anybody can do that in Georgia but can you do it in Pennsylvania?

                  Jimmy

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                    mid-Ohio
                    United States
                    Member #9
                    March 24, 2001
                    19895 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: January 28, 2013, 12:44 pm - IP Logged

                    deep Conversation.   Let me get dressed to go down to Georgia lottery airport office to cash in some pick 4 winning tickets..... That I got just from wheeling the hottest 7 digits....from previous combined midday evening 40 draws..... Life is great..

                    Let me get dressed to go down to Georgia lottery airport office to cash in some pick 4 winning tickets...

                    You don't need any one at LP to let you do that, you're on your own.

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       


                      United States
                      Member #137428
                      January 3, 2013
                      469 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: January 28, 2013, 12:50 pm - IP Logged

                      nope Not in pa. I bypassed that state while looking at their prior results....No Pity!

                        rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                        Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
                        United States
                        Member #73904
                        April 28, 2009
                        14903 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: January 28, 2013, 12:51 pm - IP Logged

                        I'm not against looking for ways to increase your chances at all. What I'm saying is, while you're looking for such methods, be careful not to fall into some 

                        common logical fallacies, that's all.

                         

                        @RJOh:

                         

                        Thank you for your advice. Unfortunately, I think it's not because of the browser but because of the nbsps. My spacebar is broken, and as a result, I have to copy

                        spaces with alt codes. So I'm not sure if I can fix this issue, but I'll try to keep lines shorter.

                        If you can't afford a keyboard (they're pretty cheap) maybe you should try playing the lottery sometime to see if you can win enough to buy one.

                        It's only a dollar, El Cheapo.

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                          mid-Ohio
                          United States
                          Member #9
                          March 24, 2001
                          19895 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: January 28, 2013, 12:52 pm - IP Logged

                          My desire is to improve my chances of securing a jackpot.  That is why I am a member of this site.  Yes, I know the math is against me.  Yes, I know the odds are against me.  Yes, I know some members here are against me.  So be it. 

                          No matter what anyone says, no matter how many statisitic books anyone drags out, I will continue to look for ways to increase my probability of winning.  Otherwise I would join DumbLuck.com.

                          I think most LP members are here for that same reason in spite the occasional member like Yoyo thinking only a few of us are aware of the odds of accomplishing that task.  I know conventional wisdom says  it's not likely to happen and if it does it will defy conventional math and logic so they have no relativity here.

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
                                       Evil Looking       

                            rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                            Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
                            United States
                            Member #73904
                            April 28, 2009
                            14903 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: January 28, 2013, 12:57 pm - IP Logged

                            deep Conversation.   Let me get dressed to go down to Georgia lottery airport office to cash in some pick 4 winning tickets..... That I got just from wheeling the hottest 7 digits....from previous combined midday evening 40 draws..... Life is great..

                            Don't forget to post them all.

                            We get inspired by seeing winning tickets!  Hyper

                              Avatar
                              Toronto
                              Canada
                              Member #138397
                              January 26, 2013
                              179 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: January 28, 2013, 1:26 pm - IP Logged

                              Don't put words in my mouth (or in this case, thoughts in my head). I never said anything about thinking that only a few are aware of the odds.

                               

                              It saddens me how few are actually willing to open their minds and actually try to understand other people's opinions.

                                 
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