Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited January 19, 2017, 7:50 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Fallacies, and two REAL ways of improving your chances

Topic closed. 215 replies. Last post 4 years ago by Kumo.

Page 14 of 15
54
PrintE-mailLink
Avatar
Kentucky
United States
Member #32652
February 14, 2006
7343 Posts
Offline
Posted: February 7, 2013, 1:25 am - IP Logged

I'll pass on the book.

Assuming what you're refering to as a "Progressive" betting system is what is sometimes called the "Martingale," I think you might finally like one of my posts, at least the first part of it.

Here's the part you should like. It's an excerpt from Michael Bluejay's in depth analysis of the Martingale:

"Here's how the Martingale can make you more likely to win in the short term: You'll win most of your sessions, but your wins will be small. Then on the rarer times that you lose, your losses will be much greater. Like most things in life, it's a trade-off."

Before you click to read his full discussion, here's something else to think about. If you read my posts discussing the results of simulations of Pick-3 games that revealed how randomness produced Standard Deviations in the Returns of individuals making it possible to actually come out ahead even though the lotteries have a huge edge, you might have been encouraged. However, if you look back at those results, you will find that the number of long term winners was miniscule. The reason this is true is because of the huge 50% edge held by the lotteries.

If you really want to INCREASE YOUR CHANCES of becoming a short term winner, you are going to have to consider games where the house edge is significantly lower. Roulette and Craps are likely candidates. You decide how much you can afford to lose and how many hours you want to spend on the days you play. From those numbers you calculate your unit bet size, remembering the house limitations and the expected number of consecutive losses you can handle. Then just Go For It! You stop either when you go bust, or your predetermined time limit expires. As M. Blujay points out, if you choose your parameters correctly, you will have many winning days!

http://vegasclick.com/gambling/martingale-betting-system.html 

Disclaimer: I don't recommend this style of betting when fighting a 50% House Edge!

--Jimmy4164

"Assuming what you're refering to as a "Progressive" betting system is what is sometimes called the "Martingale," I think you might finally like one of my posts, at least the first part of it."

You're confused again because the wins using Steve Player's progressive betting strategy are never small as in the Martingale strategy Bluejay explained. Just winning three of Steve Player type progressive pick-3 bets nets a player $29,400 on a $31 bet. The odds of doing it are better than betting any Roulette number will hit three consecutive spins or betting you can pick the right number three consecutive spins. Just remember if you lose the first bet, that $31 balloons to $54.

I have no idea of why anyone would pay for any of the Steve Player systems when the betting strategies are so obvious.


    United States
    Member #93947
    July 10, 2010
    2180 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: February 7, 2013, 12:15 pm - IP Logged

    "Assuming what you're refering to as a "Progressive" betting system is what is sometimes called the "Martingale," I think you might finally like one of my posts, at least the first part of it."

    You're confused again because the wins using Steve Player's progressive betting strategy are never small as in the Martingale strategy Bluejay explained. Just winning three of Steve Player type progressive pick-3 bets nets a player $29,400 on a $31 bet. The odds of doing it are better than betting any Roulette number will hit three consecutive spins or betting you can pick the right number three consecutive spins. Just remember if you lose the first bet, that $31 balloons to $54.

    I have no idea of why anyone would pay for any of the Steve Player systems when the betting strategies are so obvious.

    Wow!  Sounds easy.

    And how many times have you won the $29,400?

    --Jimmy4164

      Avatar
      Kentucky
      United States
      Member #32652
      February 14, 2006
      7343 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: February 7, 2013, 6:46 pm - IP Logged

      Wow!  Sounds easy.

      And how many times have you won the $29,400?

      --Jimmy4164

      The same number of times you posted something we didn't already know.


        United States
        Member #93947
        July 10, 2010
        2180 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: February 8, 2013, 1:29 am - IP Logged

        The same number of times you posted something we didn't already know.

        It would really be instructive if you would take the time to explain why you persist in posting fallacious arguments in opposition to everything I post while at the same time claiming to KNOW everything I post in advance.

        --Jimmy4164

          Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
          New Jersey
          United States
          Member #99032
          October 18, 2010
          1439 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: February 8, 2013, 2:05 am - IP Logged

          Wow!  Sounds easy.

          And how many times have you won the $29,400?

          --Jimmy4164

          Sounds like a great way to burn money to me!

            Avatar
            Kentucky
            United States
            Member #32652
            February 14, 2006
            7343 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: February 8, 2013, 7:22 pm - IP Logged

            It would really be instructive if you would take the time to explain why you persist in posting fallacious arguments in opposition to everything I post while at the same time claiming to KNOW everything I post in advance.

            --Jimmy4164

            "why you persist in posting fallacious arguments in opposition to everything I post"

            You're either suffering from delusions of grandeur again or showing an example of a fallacious remark because it's fact I don't respond to everything you post.

            Even though Bluejay said "but your wins will be small" it didn't stop you from babbling on about something you read on another site and posted a link to his article in response to a remark about progressive bets. The subject was about winning $1.9 million making $54 bets and not even close to "your wins will be small". I'm pretty sure Bluejay can tell you an aggressive progressive bet is a three bet parlay on "YO" where a $1 bet can win a player $3375.

            When I was offering my opinion of what the $300 Steve Player system involved, why did you ask me how many times I won?


              United States
              Member #93947
              July 10, 2010
              2180 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: February 8, 2013, 8:05 pm - IP Logged

              "why you persist in posting fallacious arguments in opposition to everything I post"

              You're either suffering from delusions of grandeur again or showing an example of a fallacious remark because it's fact I don't respond to everything you post.

              Even though Bluejay said "but your wins will be small" it didn't stop you from babbling on about something you read on another site and posted a link to his article in response to a remark about progressive bets. The subject was about winning $1.9 million making $54 bets and not even close to "your wins will be small". I'm pretty sure Bluejay can tell you an aggressive progressive bet is a three bet parlay on "YO" where a $1 bet can win a player $3375.

              When I was offering my opinion of what the $300 Steve Player system involved, why did you ask me how many times I won?

              Your desperation is showing!

              How many examples of you claiming you "ALREADY KNOW" what I posted would you like to see quoted?

              You really are a glutton for punishment.

              Perhaps you'd rather address an easier question.

              Why do you think there is an apparent policy at LP to deny the existence of Moderators?

                Avatar
                Kentucky
                United States
                Member #32652
                February 14, 2006
                7343 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: February 8, 2013, 11:07 pm - IP Logged

                Your desperation is showing!

                How many examples of you claiming you "ALREADY KNOW" what I posted would you like to see quoted?

                You really are a glutton for punishment.

                Perhaps you'd rather address an easier question.

                Why do you think there is an apparent policy at LP to deny the existence of Moderators?

                I'm really getting desperate; should I call a moderator?


                  United States
                  Member #93947
                  July 10, 2010
                  2180 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: February 9, 2013, 2:55 pm - IP Logged

                  I'm really getting desperate; should I call a moderator?

                  How would you know who to call?

                    Avatar
                    Kentucky
                    United States
                    Member #32652
                    February 14, 2006
                    7343 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: February 9, 2013, 6:28 pm - IP Logged

                    How would you know who to call?

                    I've never had any reason to call anyone, but I think there is a "report abuse" feature.


                      United States
                      Member #93947
                      July 10, 2010
                      2180 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: February 9, 2013, 9:49 pm - IP Logged

                      I've never had any reason to call anyone, but I think there is a "report abuse" feature.

                      And I suppose you're going to tell me you believe there is only one person responding to that button, moderating this fairly large and active enterprise all alone, a person with quite a few irons in the fire these days?  Which brings me back to my question that you're trying to avoid - why do you think the policy here is to deny the existence of moderators?


                        United States
                        Member #116268
                        September 7, 2011
                        20244 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: February 9, 2013, 9:55 pm - IP Logged

                        I'm sure someone who has been around much longer than us will know the answer to that, but my guess is that Todd monitors the activity close enough that there is no need for multiple moderators.


                          United States
                          Member #116268
                          September 7, 2011
                          20244 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: February 9, 2013, 10:11 pm - IP Logged

                          Or perhaps Jimmy already kmows the answer and he is just trolling for responses?

                            rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
                            Texas
                            United States
                            Member #55889
                            October 23, 2007
                            5756 Posts
                            Online
                            Posted: February 9, 2013, 10:18 pm - IP Logged

                            Or perhaps Jimmy already kmows the answer and he is just trolling for responses?

                            He doesn't know the answer, he just likes to troll.

                            CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

                            A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)


                              United States
                              Member #116268
                              September 7, 2011
                              20244 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: February 9, 2013, 10:19 pm - IP Logged

                              He doesn't know the answer, he just likes to troll.

                              Green laughI Agree!

                                 
                                Page 14 of 15