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Can math and logic improve chances of winning a jackpot?

Topic closed. 557 replies. Last post 3 years ago by sflottolover.

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Posted: July 27, 2013, 9:12 pm - IP Logged

If the PB bonus ball 08 hits tonight, my odds of hitting 5+1 with 10 lines will be 1 in 515,363.

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
    United States
    Member #9
    March 24, 2001
    19816 Posts
    Online
    Posted: July 27, 2013, 9:24 pm - IP Logged

    If the PB bonus ball 08 hits tonight, my odds of hitting 5+1 with 10 lines will be 1 in 515,363.

    Good luck to you.  I brought one ticket with Bonus ball 29 so if the bonus ball is 29 tonight I have a 1:5,006,386 chance of winning the jackpot.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       


      United States
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      September 7, 2011
      20244 Posts
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      Posted: July 27, 2013, 9:29 pm - IP Logged

      Good luck to you.  I brought one ticket with Bonus ball 29 so if the bonus ball is 29 tonight I have a 1:5,006,386 chance of winning the jackpot.

      Nice work on improving your chances. I like the 29 bonus ball.

      Powerball
      Sorted by Times Drawn
      #Times
      Drawn
      % of
      Drawings
      Last
      Drawn
      29106.28%3/13/2013
      3395.66%6/26/2013
      1685.03%6/29/2013
      0674.4%7/20/2013
      1474.4%6/1/2013
      0163.77%6/15/2013
      1863.77%5/1/2013

      http://www.usamega.com/powerball-stats.asp

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
        United States
        Member #9
        March 24, 2001
        19816 Posts
        Online
        Posted: July 27, 2013, 9:46 pm - IP Logged

        Nice work on improving your chances. I like the 29 bonus ball.

        Powerball
        Sorted by Times Drawn
        #Times
        Drawn
        % of
        Drawings
        Last
        Drawn
        29106.28%3/13/2013
        3395.66%6/26/2013
        1685.03%6/29/2013
        0674.4%7/20/2013
        1474.4%6/1/2013
        0163.77%6/15/2013
        1863.77%5/1/2013

        http://www.usamega.com/powerball-stats.asp

        I spent all my time doing a work out for Ohio Classic Lotto and played the 10 lines I posted on the prediction board which won nothing.  When I checked my reject file, I had rejected a bunch or match3's and a couple of match4's. 

        I just quickly looked over the recent drawings and picked a random combination to be in the game.  I  hate not being in a game with a $200M jackpot that I could have brought a ticket for.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       


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          Posted: July 27, 2013, 10:16 pm - IP Logged

          A $200 million jackpot seems to justify more risk in most everyone's mind. I bet an extra $20. and if tickets were $5. per line I would have bet an extra $25. instead of $20.

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            Kentucky
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            7295 Posts
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            Posted: July 28, 2013, 4:09 pm - IP Logged

            If the PB bonus ball 08 hits tonight, my odds of hitting 5+1 with 10 lines will be 1 in 515,363.

            I think by trying to apply math we sometimes forget about logic. Mathematically by playing 35 lines we can use each of the bonus numbers, but by default we're guaranteed 34 of those lines cannot win the jackpot. It looks like we have 35 chances of winning the jackpot, but the reality it's only one chance can win. By playing one bonus number on multiple lines, if that number is drawn each line has a chance of winning the jackpot. If you played 10 bonus numbers on ten lines, the overall chances should not be divided by 10 because again by default, 9 of those lines can't win the jackpot.

            It comes down to risk vs reward so by using all 35 bonus numbers, we're betting one of those 35 lines has a 1 in 5,153,633 chance of winning the jackpot. By betting one bonus number on 35 lines, we're betting all 35 lines have a 1 in 147,246 of winning the jackpot when that number is drawn.

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
              United States
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              19816 Posts
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              Posted: July 28, 2013, 4:34 pm - IP Logged

              I think by trying to apply math we sometimes forget about logic. Mathematically by playing 35 lines we can use each of the bonus numbers, but by default we're guaranteed 34 of those lines cannot win the jackpot. It looks like we have 35 chances of winning the jackpot, but the reality it's only one chance can win. By playing one bonus number on multiple lines, if that number is drawn each line has a chance of winning the jackpot. If you played 10 bonus numbers on ten lines, the overall chances should not be divided by 10 because again by default, 9 of those lines can't win the jackpot.

              It comes down to risk vs reward so by using all 35 bonus numbers, we're betting one of those 35 lines has a 1 in 5,153,633 chance of winning the jackpot. By betting one bonus number on 35 lines, we're betting all 35 lines have a 1 in 147,246 of winning the jackpot when that number is drawn.

              "Mathematically by playing 35 lines we can use each of the bonus numbers, but by default we're guaranteed 34 of those lines cannot win the jackpot."

              By playing all 35 bonus numbers, you're just guaranteeing you won't come away winning nothing even if it cost you $70 to win $2 and you're no better off than the player spending $68 and winning nothing.

              I'll probably play 10 lines for the next drawing, I can afford to lose $20 trying to win a $235M jackpot.

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

                RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                United States
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                March 13, 2008
                3962 Posts
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                Posted: July 29, 2013, 4:09 am - IP Logged

                Playing 10 lines gives you 10 chances and can be expressed as 10 in 175,223,510 or 1 in 1,7522,351.

                The odds for the games do not change but the number of chances is only dependent on the number of

                tickets one plays. 

                 

                Playing more tickets increases a persons chances of winning but does not affect the odds for the game. 

                The chance of hitting a 5+1 when playing all 175,223,510 lines can be expressed as 1 in 1. 

                 

                The only mathematically proven way to increase ones chances of winning is to buy more tickets.  There are

                many ways IMHO one can apply math to their selection processes which I also believe can improve chances

                but these are NOT! mathematical proofs.

                 

                No method / system that I have ever seen comes close to mathematically provable.  Spotting trends, runs

                etc.. and putting them into play in hopes that they continue is about all we can do but as one gets better

                and better at this so will the ROI.

                 

                It's possible to consistently do better than the odds suggest but this is not beating the odds, it just means that

                you have taken advantage of some data and it paid off.   The idea of system playing the lottery is not to beat 

                the odds it's about winning more money. 

                 

                The odds are the odds so let it go at that.  I can change the number of chances I have within a drawing of matching

                the numbers drawn simply by purchasing more tickets but I can't change the odds for the game.   My chances go up

                with every ticket I buy but each ticket has odds of 1 in 175,223,510. 

                 

                I win way more than the odds would suggest but I am not beating the odds I am just doing better than the average

                player at picking numbers.  When I play I watch for runs, trends etc.. and add a few random elements along the way.

                When I don't have enough information that points to some certain event then I don't play.   

                 

                We don't need to prove anything, if it works and put's more money in our pocket or at least slows down the money

                coming out of our pockets then we are heading in the right direction.  The lottery is a game where we pay to play

                and can be fun and exciting, let's let it go at that.

                 

                RL

                Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                  US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
                  United States
                  Member #9
                  March 24, 2001
                  19816 Posts
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                  Posted: July 29, 2013, 6:19 am - IP Logged

                  Considering no combination of five has ever repeated, when I play ten lines and avoid all previous winning combinations I'm betting my odds are 10 in 175,221,220 or better when I include even more trends that have been true since the game begin.  However the benefits of eliminating 20% of the possible combinations 80% of the time is hard to measure with only a few drawings.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                    United States
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                    Posted: July 29, 2013, 7:15 am - IP Logged

                    RJ

                    There is tons of stuff we can use, it just needs to come together in the same drawing.  I really have problems 

                    with people who think we can't do anything to improve our play.  I am a hard core system player and intend to

                    continue that way.  I buy a QP now and then but I never seem to win anything using them.  I use to filter out any

                    set that had already hit but I got to checking and found that many times doing so removes lower level prizes.

                    RL

                    Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                    I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                    they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                    USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                      US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
                      United States
                      Member #9
                      March 24, 2001
                      19816 Posts
                      Online
                      Posted: July 29, 2013, 8:38 am - IP Logged

                      RJ

                      There is tons of stuff we can use, it just needs to come together in the same drawing.  I really have problems 

                      with people who think we can't do anything to improve our play.  I am a hard core system player and intend to

                      continue that way.  I buy a QP now and then but I never seem to win anything using them.  I use to filter out any

                      set that had already hit but I got to checking and found that many times doing so removes lower level prizes.

                      RL

                      When ever I pick 10-20 lines to play, depending of the parameters and their ranges I usually reject 150-1500 lines which I write to a temporary files.  If after the drawing I didn't have a winner and don't find some among the rejects then I know I never had a chance of picking one.

                      I expect winners to be some where in the mix.  If they're only among the rejects then I adjust my reject parameters and hope some of the winners are in the lines I choose to play the next time.

                      For me picking winners to reject is more of a problem than rejecting them. 

                      I have nothing against quick picks, my system is kinda like having a bunch of randomly picked combinations (quick picks) and I'm picking 10-20 lines from them that I think are more likely to be winners.  Some players say they can tell a winner/loser when they see one, I'm just trying to digitize that using a computer/system which allows me to work with more lines.

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       

                        Avatar
                        Kentucky
                        United States
                        Member #32652
                        February 14, 2006
                        7295 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: July 29, 2013, 4:14 pm - IP Logged

                        Playing 10 lines gives you 10 chances and can be expressed as 10 in 175,223,510 or 1 in 1,7522,351.

                        The odds for the games do not change but the number of chances is only dependent on the number of

                        tickets one plays. 

                         

                        Playing more tickets increases a persons chances of winning but does not affect the odds for the game. 

                        The chance of hitting a 5+1 when playing all 175,223,510 lines can be expressed as 1 in 1. 

                         

                        The only mathematically proven way to increase ones chances of winning is to buy more tickets.  There are

                        many ways IMHO one can apply math to their selection processes which I also believe can improve chances

                        but these are NOT! mathematical proofs.

                         

                        No method / system that I have ever seen comes close to mathematically provable.  Spotting trends, runs

                        etc.. and putting them into play in hopes that they continue is about all we can do but as one gets better

                        and better at this so will the ROI.

                         

                        It's possible to consistently do better than the odds suggest but this is not beating the odds, it just means that

                        you have taken advantage of some data and it paid off.   The idea of system playing the lottery is not to beat 

                        the odds it's about winning more money. 

                         

                        The odds are the odds so let it go at that.  I can change the number of chances I have within a drawing of matching

                        the numbers drawn simply by purchasing more tickets but I can't change the odds for the game.   My chances go up

                        with every ticket I buy but each ticket has odds of 1 in 175,223,510. 

                         

                        I win way more than the odds would suggest but I am not beating the odds I am just doing better than the average

                        player at picking numbers.  When I play I watch for runs, trends etc.. and add a few random elements along the way.

                        When I don't have enough information that points to some certain event then I don't play.   

                         

                        We don't need to prove anything, if it works and put's more money in our pocket or at least slows down the money

                        coming out of our pockets then we are heading in the right direction.  The lottery is a game where we pay to play

                        and can be fun and exciting, let's let it go at that.

                         

                        RL

                        "Playing more tickets increases a persons chances of winning but does not affect the odds for the game."

                        Buying more tickets gives a slightly better percentage chance of winning, but it doesn't change the fact there is still only one way to win. If 100 chances out of 1000 chances are purchased, the overall chances are 10% or 1 in 10. There can only be one winning chance out of the 100 chances and there are still 900 chances of losing. If the odds were expressed of chances of losing (900) compared to the chances of winning (1), the odds are 900 to 1 and not 10 to 1.

                        Because the true odds are usually wrongly expressed, a mathematics professor is quoted saying "state lotteries are poor wagers and that I don't play them." I can understand the logic in saying it because the math of multiple chances was wrongly expressed, but they use what they called faulty math to calculate the payoff odds. If $10 is bet on 10 different chances out of 1000 chances wins, they will reduce the payoff odds to $50 to 1 ($500/$10) as if each of the 9 losing chances can actually win something or the one winning chance is paid off at $50 to 1. The winning chance in most pick-3 games is paid off at $499 to $1 and the other 9 $1 chances are deducted from the winnings so the payoff on the one and only winning chance is $490 to $1.

                        "Playing 10 lines gives you 10 chances and can be expressed as 10 in 175,223,510 or 1 in 1,7522,351."

                        The math professor will tell you each of the 10 chances has odds of 175,223,500 to 1 and call it a poor wager because the payoff odds are $235 million to $10 and reduce them to $23.5 million to $1. To be consistent, if they say each additional chance only reduces the odds by 1, they should say the payoff is reduced by the cost of the additional bets. Even by expressing the odds as 1 in 17,522,351 there is still a huge risk until it's compared to the reward of $235 million, minus the cost of the bet. Poor wager, maybe but not a terrible bet when comparing risk vs reward.

                        We have one critic who is using out of context quotes by math professors and wrongly assuming lottery players don't understand the odds with no clue as to why players make bets. Maybe someday they will finally figure out lottery players are playing because someone will win and they are risking a small amount of money that the someone will be them.

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                          mid-Ohio
                          United States
                          Member #9
                          March 24, 2001
                          19816 Posts
                          Online
                          Posted: July 29, 2013, 9:13 pm - IP Logged

                          "Playing more tickets increases a persons chances of winning but does not affect the odds for the game."

                          Buying more tickets gives a slightly better percentage chance of winning, but it doesn't change the fact there is still only one way to win. If 100 chances out of 1000 chances are purchased, the overall chances are 10% or 1 in 10. There can only be one winning chance out of the 100 chances and there are still 900 chances of losing. If the odds were expressed of chances of losing (900) compared to the chances of winning (1), the odds are 900 to 1 and not 10 to 1.

                          Because the true odds are usually wrongly expressed, a mathematics professor is quoted saying "state lotteries are poor wagers and that I don't play them." I can understand the logic in saying it because the math of multiple chances was wrongly expressed, but they use what they called faulty math to calculate the payoff odds. If $10 is bet on 10 different chances out of 1000 chances wins, they will reduce the payoff odds to $50 to 1 ($500/$10) as if each of the 9 losing chances can actually win something or the one winning chance is paid off at $50 to 1. The winning chance in most pick-3 games is paid off at $499 to $1 and the other 9 $1 chances are deducted from the winnings so the payoff on the one and only winning chance is $490 to $1.

                          "Playing 10 lines gives you 10 chances and can be expressed as 10 in 175,223,510 or 1 in 1,7522,351."

                          The math professor will tell you each of the 10 chances has odds of 175,223,500 to 1 and call it a poor wager because the payoff odds are $235 million to $10 and reduce them to $23.5 million to $1. To be consistent, if they say each additional chance only reduces the odds by 1, they should say the payoff is reduced by the cost of the additional bets. Even by expressing the odds as 1 in 17,522,351 there is still a huge risk until it's compared to the reward of $235 million, minus the cost of the bet. Poor wager, maybe but not a terrible bet when comparing risk vs reward.

                          We have one critic who is using out of context quotes by math professors and wrongly assuming lottery players don't understand the odds with no clue as to why players make bets. Maybe someday they will finally figure out lottery players are playing because someone will win and they are risking a small amount of money that the someone will be them.

                          Because the true odds are usually wrongly expressed, a mathematics professor is quoted saying "state lotteries are poor wagers and that I don't play them."

                          Realistically what kinds of odds can one expect in a game where a dollar or two will buy you a chance to win up to a half billion  dollars?

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
                                       Evil Looking       

                            Avatar
                            Kentucky
                            United States
                            Member #32652
                            February 14, 2006
                            7295 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: July 30, 2013, 12:48 am - IP Logged

                            Because the true odds are usually wrongly expressed, a mathematics professor is quoted saying "state lotteries are poor wagers and that I don't play them."

                            Realistically what kinds of odds can one expect in a game where a dollar or two will buy you a chance to win up to a half billion  dollars?

                            Very good question and if one of those math professors we keep reading about decides to post, we can ask them.

                              RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                              United States
                              Member #59354
                              March 13, 2008
                              3962 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: July 30, 2013, 9:01 am - IP Logged

                              When ever I pick 10-20 lines to play, depending of the parameters and their ranges I usually reject 150-1500 lines which I write to a temporary files.  If after the drawing I didn't have a winner and don't find some among the rejects then I know I never had a chance of picking one.

                              I expect winners to be some where in the mix.  If they're only among the rejects then I adjust my reject parameters and hope some of the winners are in the lines I choose to play the next time.

                              For me picking winners to reject is more of a problem than rejecting them. 

                              I have nothing against quick picks, my system is kinda like having a bunch of randomly picked combinations (quick picks) and I'm picking 10-20 lines from them that I think are more likely to be winners.  Some players say they can tell a winner/loser when they see one, I'm just trying to digitize that using a computer/system which allows me to work with more lines.

                              RJ

                              I have a tool that can be ran after the drawing which will record all of the filters that would have been required

                              to match 4of5's.  What or how it works is it uses the 5 numbers that hit and then wheels every five number com-

                              bination that has at least 4 of the winning numbers.  It then runs these 4of5 matches through all the filters and

                              prints to a file the missed values.  Most of the 4of5's will show 3 to 6 filters that would needed to be changed but

                              there is always a couple that were one off.   I agree it's something to study that should allow a person to pick up

                              more of those 2nd, 3rd level prizes.

                              RL

                              Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                              I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                              they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                              USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                                US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                                 
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