I spent all my time doing a work out for Ohio Classic Lotto and played the 10 lines I posted on the prediction board which won nothing. When I checked my reject file, I had rejected a bunch or match3's and a couple of match4's.

I just quickly looked over the recent drawings and picked a random combination to be in the game. I hate not being in a game with a $200M jackpot that I could have brought a ticket for.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

United States Member #116268 September 7, 2011 20244 Posts Offline

Posted: July 27, 2013, 10:16 pm - IP Logged

A $200 million jackpot seems to justify more risk in most everyone's mind. I bet an extra $20. and if tickets were $5. per line I would have bet an extra $25. instead of $20.

Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7295 Posts Offline

Posted: July 28, 2013, 4:09 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Ronnie316 on July 27, 2013

If the PB bonus ball 08 hits tonight, my odds of hitting 5+1 with 10 lines will be 1 in 515,363.

I think by trying to apply math we sometimes forget about logic. Mathematically by playing 35 lines we can use each of the bonus numbers, but by default we're guaranteed 34 of those lines cannot win the jackpot. It looks like we have 35 chances of winning the jackpot, but the reality it's only one chance can win. By playing one bonus number on multiple lines, if that number is drawn each line has a chance of winning the jackpot. If you played 10 bonus numbers on ten lines, the overall chances should not be divided by 10 because again by default, 9 of those lines can't win the jackpot.

It comes down to risk vs reward so by using all 35 bonus numbers, we're betting one of those 35 lines has a 1 in 5,153,633 chance of winning the jackpot. By betting one bonus number on 35 lines, we're betting all 35 lines have a 1 in 147,246 of winning the jackpot when that number is drawn.

mid-Ohio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 19816 Posts Online

Posted: July 28, 2013, 4:34 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on July 28, 2013

I think by trying to apply math we sometimes forget about logic. Mathematically by playing 35 lines we can use each of the bonus numbers, but by default we're guaranteed 34 of those lines cannot win the jackpot. It looks like we have 35 chances of winning the jackpot, but the reality it's only one chance can win. By playing one bonus number on multiple lines, if that number is drawn each line has a chance of winning the jackpot. If you played 10 bonus numbers on ten lines, the overall chances should not be divided by 10 because again by default, 9 of those lines can't win the jackpot.

It comes down to risk vs reward so by using all 35 bonus numbers, we're betting one of those 35 lines has a 1 in 5,153,633 chance of winning the jackpot. By betting one bonus number on 35 lines, we're betting all 35 lines have a 1 in 147,246 of winning the jackpot when that number is drawn.

"Mathematically by playing 35 lines we can use each of the bonus numbers, but by default we're guaranteed 34 of those lines cannot win the jackpot."

By playing all 35 bonus numbers, you're just guaranteeing you won't come away winning nothing even if it cost you $70 to win $2 and you're no better off than the player spending $68 and winning nothing.

I'll probably play 10 lines for the next drawing, I can afford to lose $20 trying to win a $235M jackpot.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

mid-Ohio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 19816 Posts Online

Posted: July 29, 2013, 6:19 am - IP Logged

Considering no combination of five has ever repeated, when I play ten lines and avoid all previous winning combinations I'm betting my odds are 10 in 175,221,220 or better when I include even more trends that have been true since the game begin. However the benefits of eliminating 20% of the possible combinations 80% of the time is hard to measure with only a few drawings.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

mid-Ohio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 19816 Posts Online

Posted: July 29, 2013, 8:38 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by RL-RANDOMLOGIC on July 29, 2013

RJ

There is tons of stuff we can use, it just needs to come together in the same drawing. I really have problems

with people who think we can't do anything to improve our play. I am a hard core system player and intend to

continue that way. I buy a QP now and then but I never seem to win anything using them. I use to filter out any

set that had already hit but I got to checking and found that many times doing so removes lower level prizes.

RL

When ever I pick 10-20 lines to play, depending of the parameters and their ranges I usually reject 150-1500 lines which I write to a temporary files. If after the drawing I didn't have a winner and don't find some among the rejects then I know I never had a chance of picking one.

I expect winners to be some where in the mix. If they're only among the rejects then I adjust my reject parameters and hope some of the winners are in the lines I choose to play the next time.

For me picking winners to reject is more of a problem than rejecting them.

I have nothing against quick picks, my system is kinda like having a bunch of randomly picked combinations (quick picks) and I'm picking 10-20 lines from them that I think are more likely to be winners. Some players say they can tell a winner/loser when they see one, I'm just trying to digitize that using a computer/system which allows me to work with more lines.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7295 Posts Offline

Posted: July 29, 2013, 4:14 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by RL-RANDOMLOGIC on July 29, 2013

Playing 10 lines gives you 10 chances and can be expressed as 10 in 175,223,510 or 1 in 1,7522,351.

The odds for the games do not change but the number of chances is only dependent on the number of

tickets one plays.

Playing more tickets increases a persons chances of winning but does not affect the odds for the game.

The chance of hitting a 5+1 when playing all 175,223,510 lines can be expressed as 1 in 1.

The only mathematically proven way to increase ones chances of winning is to buy more tickets. There are

many ways IMHO one can apply math to their selection processes which I also believe can improve chances

but these are NOT! mathematical proofs.

No method / system that I have ever seen comes close to mathematically provable. Spotting trends, runs

etc.. and putting them into play in hopes that they continue is about all we can do but as one gets better

and better at this so will the ROI.

It's possible to consistently do better than the odds suggest but this is not beating the odds, it just means that

you have taken advantage of some data and it paid off. The idea of system playing the lottery is not to beat

the odds it's about winning more money.

The odds are the odds so let it go at that. I can change the number of chances I have within a drawing of matching

the numbers drawn simply by purchasing more tickets but I can't change the odds for the game. My chances go up

with every ticket I buy but each ticket has odds of 1 in 175,223,510.

I win way more than the odds would suggest but I am not beating the odds I am just doing better than the average

player at picking numbers. When I play I watch for runs, trends etc.. and add a few random elements along the way.

When I don't have enough information that points to some certain event then I don't play.

We don't need to prove anything, if it works and put's more money in our pocket or at least slows down the money

coming out of our pockets then we are heading in the right direction. The lottery is a game where we pay to play

and can be fun and exciting, let's let it go at that.

RL

"Playing more tickets increases a persons chances of winning but does not affect the odds for the game."

Buying more tickets gives a slightly better percentage chance of winning, but it doesn't change the fact there is still only one way to win. If 100 chances out of 1000 chances are purchased, the overall chances are 10% or 1 in 10. There can only be one winning chance out of the 100 chances and there are still 900 chances of losing. If the odds were expressed of chances of losing (900) compared to the chances of winning (1), the odds are 900 to 1 and not 10 to 1.

Because the true odds are usually wrongly expressed, a mathematics professor is quoted saying "state lotteries are poor wagers and that I don't play them." I can understand the logic in saying it because the math of multiple chances was wrongly expressed, but they use what they called faulty math to calculate the payoff odds. If $10 is bet on 10 different chances out of 1000 chances wins, they will reduce the payoff odds to $50 to 1 ($500/$10) as if each of the 9 losing chances can actually win something or the one winning chance is paid off at $50 to 1. The winning chance in most pick-3 games is paid off at $499 to $1 and the other 9 $1 chances are deducted from the winnings so the payoff on the one and only winning chance is $490 to $1.

"Playing 10 lines gives you 10 chances and can be expressed as 10 in 175,223,510 or 1 in 1,7522,351."

The math professor will tell you each of the 10 chances has odds of 175,223,500 to 1 and call it a poor wager because the payoff odds are $235 million to $10 and reduce them to $23.5 million to $1. To be consistent, if they say each additional chance only reduces the odds by 1, they should say the payoff is reduced by the cost of the additional bets. Even by expressing the odds as 1 in 17,522,351 there is still a huge risk until it's compared to the reward of $235 million, minus the cost of the bet. Poor wager, maybe but not a terrible bet when comparing risk vs reward.

We have one critic who is using out of context quotes by math professors and wrongly assuming lottery players don't understand the odds with no clue as to why players make bets. Maybe someday they will finally figure out lottery players are playing because someone will win and they are risking a small amount of money that the someone will be them.

mid-Ohio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 19816 Posts Online

Posted: July 29, 2013, 9:13 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on July 29, 2013

"Playing more tickets increases a persons chances of winning but does not affect the odds for the game."

Buying more tickets gives a slightly better percentage chance of winning, but it doesn't change the fact there is still only one way to win. If 100 chances out of 1000 chances are purchased, the overall chances are 10% or 1 in 10. There can only be one winning chance out of the 100 chances and there are still 900 chances of losing. If the odds were expressed of chances of losing (900) compared to the chances of winning (1), the odds are 900 to 1 and not 10 to 1.

Because the true odds are usually wrongly expressed, a mathematics professor is quoted saying "state lotteries are poor wagers and that I don't play them." I can understand the logic in saying it because the math of multiple chances was wrongly expressed, but they use what they called faulty math to calculate the payoff odds. If $10 is bet on 10 different chances out of 1000 chances wins, they will reduce the payoff odds to $50 to 1 ($500/$10) as if each of the 9 losing chances can actually win something or the one winning chance is paid off at $50 to 1. The winning chance in most pick-3 games is paid off at $499 to $1 and the other 9 $1 chances are deducted from the winnings so the payoff on the one and only winning chance is $490 to $1.

"Playing 10 lines gives you 10 chances and can be expressed as 10 in 175,223,510 or 1 in 1,7522,351."

The math professor will tell you each of the 10 chances has odds of 175,223,500 to 1 and call it a poor wager because the payoff odds are $235 million to $10 and reduce them to $23.5 million to $1. To be consistent, if they say each additional chance only reduces the odds by 1, they should say the payoff is reduced by the cost of the additional bets. Even by expressing the odds as 1 in 17,522,351 there is still a huge risk until it's compared to the reward of $235 million, minus the cost of the bet. Poor wager, maybe but not a terrible bet when comparing risk vs reward.

We have one critic who is using out of context quotes by math professors and wrongly assuming lottery players don't understand the odds with no clue as to why players make bets. Maybe someday they will finally figure out lottery players are playing because someone will win and they are risking a small amount of money that the someone will be them.

Because the true odds are usually wrongly expressed, a mathematics professor is quoted saying "state lotteries are poor wagers and that I don't play them."

Realistically what kinds of odds can one expect in a game where a dollar or two will buy you a chance to win up to a half billion dollars?

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

Because the true odds are usually wrongly expressed, a mathematics professor is quoted saying "state lotteries are poor wagers and that I don't play them."

Realistically what kinds of odds can one expect in a game where a dollar or two will buy you a chance to win up to a half billion dollars?

Very good question and if one of those math professors we keep reading about decides to post, we can ask them.

When ever I pick 10-20 lines to play, depending of the parameters and their ranges I usually reject 150-1500 lines which I write to a temporary files. If after the drawing I didn't have a winner and don't find some among the rejects then I know I never had a chance of picking one.

I expect winners to be some where in the mix. If they're only among the rejects then I adjust my reject parameters and hope some of the winners are in the lines I choose to play the next time.

For me picking winners to reject is more of a problem than rejecting them.

I have nothing against quick picks, my system is kinda like having a bunch of randomly picked combinations (quick picks) and I'm picking 10-20 lines from them that I think are more likely to be winners. Some players say they can tell a winner/loser when they see one, I'm just trying to digitize that using a computer/system which allows me to work with more lines.

RJ

I have a tool that can be ran after the drawing which will record all of the filters that would have been required

to match 4of5's. What or how it works is it uses the 5 numbers that hit and then wheels every five number com-

bination that has at least 4 of the winning numbers. It then runs these 4of5 matches through all the filters and

prints to a file the missed values. Most of the 4of5's will show 3 to 6 filters that would needed to be changed but

there is always a couple that were one off. I agree it's something to study that should allow a person to pick up

more of those 2nd, 3rd level prizes.

RL

Working on my Ph.D. "University of hard Knocks"

I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

they are not. Many great discoveries come while searching for something else