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Can math and logic improve chances of winning a jackpot?

Topic closed. 557 replies. Last post 3 years ago by sflottolover.

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RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

United States
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Posted: July 30, 2013, 9:10 am - IP Logged

"Playing more tickets increases a persons chances of winning but does not affect the odds for the game."

Buying more tickets gives a slightly better percentage chance of winning, but it doesn't change the fact there is still only one way to win. If 100 chances out of 1000 chances are purchased, the overall chances are 10% or 1 in 10. There can only be one winning chance out of the 100 chances and there are still 900 chances of losing. If the odds were expressed of chances of losing (900) compared to the chances of winning (1), the odds are 900 to 1 and not 10 to 1.

Because the true odds are usually wrongly expressed, a mathematics professor is quoted saying "state lotteries are poor wagers and that I don't play them." I can understand the logic in saying it because the math of multiple chances was wrongly expressed, but they use what they called faulty math to calculate the payoff odds. If $10 is bet on 10 different chances out of 1000 chances wins, they will reduce the payoff odds to $50 to 1 ($500/$10) as if each of the 9 losing chances can actually win something or the one winning chance is paid off at $50 to 1. The winning chance in most pick-3 games is paid off at $499 to $1 and the other 9 $1 chances are deducted from the winnings so the payoff on the one and only winning chance is $490 to $1.

"Playing 10 lines gives you 10 chances and can be expressed as 10 in 175,223,510 or 1 in 1,7522,351."

The math professor will tell you each of the 10 chances has odds of 175,223,500 to 1 and call it a poor wager because the payoff odds are $235 million to $10 and reduce them to $23.5 million to $1. To be consistent, if they say each additional chance only reduces the odds by 1, they should say the payoff is reduced by the cost of the additional bets. Even by expressing the odds as 1 in 17,522,351 there is still a huge risk until it's compared to the reward of $235 million, minus the cost of the bet. Poor wager, maybe but not a terrible bet when comparing risk vs reward.

We have one critic who is using out of context quotes by math professors and wrongly assuming lottery players don't understand the odds with no clue as to why players make bets. Maybe someday they will finally figure out lottery players are playing because someone will win and they are risking a small amount of money that the someone will be them.

Stack

What I find amazing is the extent of their conviction that drives them to tell us we are misguided.

I don't think any of that will ever help me pick my numbers.  Check the odds at the door and play

whatever you can find that looks like it should show.   All my choices are guesses but I like to think

that I am using my intelligence in some logical fashion rather it's based on odds or not.

RL

Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

  US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

    bobby623's avatar - abstract
    San Angelo, Texas
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    Posted: July 30, 2013, 10:17 am - IP Logged

    Stack

    What I find amazing is the extent of their conviction that drives them to tell us we are misguided.

    I don't think any of that will ever help me pick my numbers.  Check the odds at the door and play

    whatever you can find that looks like it should show.   All my choices are guesses but I like to think

    that I am using my intelligence in some logical fashion rather it's based on odds or not.

    RL

    RL

    As one who chooses every number I play, I couldn't agree more.
    Odds are just numbers that the learned mathematics throw around to impress whatever society they
    belong to.
    Maybe one day some odds-oriented person will figure out a way to demonstrate with great accuracy
    that odds 1/1 means that I should play 078 in the next pick 3 drawing!
    I won't hold my breath!!

    A great lesson I've learned via a long life is that 'nothing given, nothing gained, or, 'no pain, no gain.'
    Folks who are too busy to do anything but complain, look for handouts, or whatever, need to
    do something else with their money - and their life, for that matter.

      Avatar
      Kentucky
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      Posted: July 30, 2013, 1:15 pm - IP Logged

      Stack

      What I find amazing is the extent of their conviction that drives them to tell us we are misguided.

      I don't think any of that will ever help me pick my numbers.  Check the odds at the door and play

      whatever you can find that looks like it should show.   All my choices are guesses but I like to think

      that I am using my intelligence in some logical fashion rather it's based on odds or not.

      RL

      "Realistically what kinds of odds can one expect in a game where a dollar or two will buy you a chance to win up to a half billion  dollars?"

      Lottery players don't even need much of a mathematical background to find the game odds on a state lottery website or or on the back of a play slip to understand winning a jackpot is very difficult at best. The next question should be knowing that why do so many people try to win and the answers is obvious; there is "1" behind the eight or nine digit number and the cost is $2 or less. Players already know it's highly unlikely they'll win, but the cost of the ticket justifies taking the risk. And based on the number of "how will you spend your winnings" discussions on LP, there is also a "feel good" psychological effect.

      Since every drawing has a life changing jackpot and we decided the cost of play, we can play as long as we want. Does Gloria really need to justify to a math professor who believes it's a poor wager why she spent a couple of bucks a week trying to win a life changing jackpot?

        RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

        United States
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        Posted: July 30, 2013, 7:16 pm - IP Logged

        I Agree!

        I would like to just enjoy playing and making a few post without having to dodge arrows every time I say something.

        RL

        .

        Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

        I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

        they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

        USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

          US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  


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          Posted: July 31, 2013, 4:31 am - IP Logged

          I'm no mathematician however there must be some theory behind it as far as I can remember there has been no lottery in the world to have 1,2,3,4,5,6 come out but yet it has the same chance as every other. I have taken note of frequent numbers and have used it to win a few times, nothing large.


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            Posted: July 31, 2013, 4:44 am - IP Logged

            I'm no mathematician however there must be some theory behind it as far as I can remember there has been no lottery in the world to have 1,2,3,4,5,6 come out but yet it has the same chance as every other. I have taken note of frequent numbers and have used it to win a few times, nothing large.

            "Playing 10 lines gives you 10 chances and can be expressed as 10 in 175,223,510 or 1 in 1,7522,351."

            I also am no professor emeritus of mathology, but doesn't 10  in  175,223,510 reduces to 1 in 17,522,351?

            Makes me think of the movie office space, where the guy says, " I probably put the decimal in the wrong places.  I always do that! Mess up some mundane detail."

            Well in lottery there are really no mundane details I suppose, if you really LOOK at it.Evil Looking

            Thats a good point as well shane. 

            Can the mathematicians explain why 1 2 3 4 5 6 has never been drawn?

            Welcome to LP shaneuk BTW!

              SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
              Economy class
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              Posted: July 31, 2013, 8:08 am - IP Logged

              Who started this thread again? What is meant by math and logic? Is this a kind of riddle? What is this thread about?

                SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
                Economy class
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                Posted: July 31, 2013, 8:18 am - IP Logged

                "Playing 10 lines gives you 10 chances and can be expressed as 10 in 175,223,510 or 1 in 1,7522,351."

                I also am no professor emeritus of mathology, but doesn't 10  in  175,223,510 reduces to 1 in 17,522,351?

                Makes me think of the movie office space, where the guy says, " I probably put the decimal in the wrong places.  I always do that! Mess up some mundane detail."

                Well in lottery there are really no mundane details I suppose, if you really LOOK at it.Evil Looking

                Thats a good point as well shane. 

                Can the mathematicians explain why 1 2 3 4 5 6 has never been drawn?

                Welcome to LP shaneuk BTW!

                "Playing 10 lines gives you 10 chances and can be expressed as 10 in 175,223,510 or 1 in 1,7522,351."

                I also am no professor emeritus of mathology, but doesn't 10  in  175,223,510 reduces to 1 in 17,522,351?

                 

                175 223 510 combinations, jackpot minded:

                  1 plaid:    1 chance to win the jp,  175 223 509 chances not to win the jp.

                10 plaid: 10 chances to win the jp, 175 223 500 chances not to win the jp.

                 

                Fooled by statistics?

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
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                  Posted: July 31, 2013, 8:25 am - IP Logged

                  I'm no mathematician however there must be some theory behind it as far as I can remember there has been no lottery in the world to have 1,2,3,4,5,6 come out but yet it has the same chance as every other. I have taken note of frequent numbers and have used it to win a few times, nothing large.

                  What you can remember doesn't count for much unless you have checked every known lottery results with six figures.  Have you checked the past drawings of West Virginia's Cash25?  It's a 6 of 25 game that has had drawings since back in the nineties.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
                    Texas
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                    Posted: July 31, 2013, 8:32 am - IP Logged

                    "Realistically what kinds of odds can one expect in a game where a dollar or two will buy you a chance to win up to a half billion  dollars?"

                    Lottery players don't even need much of a mathematical background to find the game odds on a state lottery website or or on the back of a play slip to understand winning a jackpot is very difficult at best. The next question should be knowing that why do so many people try to win and the answers is obvious; there is "1" behind the eight or nine digit number and the cost is $2 or less. Players already know it's highly unlikely they'll win, but the cost of the ticket justifies taking the risk. And based on the number of "how will you spend your winnings" discussions on LP, there is also a "feel good" psychological effect.

                    Since every drawing has a life changing jackpot and we decided the cost of play, we can play as long as we want. Does Gloria really need to justify to a math professor who believes it's a poor wager why she spent a couple of bucks a week trying to win a life changing jackpot?

                    Yep, it's all about the field of numbers and combining those numbers into combinations. The larger the field, the harder and more expensive it becomes to get closer to the winning combination. To Ronnie316's credit, though, he's proven that it can be done...albeit at an astronomical cost, and, several tries. Certain combinations can, in fact, be played at certain times which increase odds of winning by a substantial margin. Just gotta have that kind of coin to do it. We're only dealing with numbers here...but a lot of 'em.

                    If I had lots of $$$ to play with, I see where hitting (5) of (5) wouldn't be terribly hard at all. Timing would be the key and I'd be willing to lose a couple of times to get there, too, because I'd still see a very handsome profit. $200K-$300K after all taxes and losses is nothing to sneeze at...especially when it can be repeated.Wink

                     

                    L.L.

                    Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                    There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                    #lotto-4-a-living

                      SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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                      Posted: July 31, 2013, 8:41 am - IP Logged

                      What you can remember doesn't count for much unless you have checked every known lottery results with six figures.  Have you checked the past drawings of West Virginia's Cash25?  It's a 6 of 25 game that has had drawings since back in the nineties.

                      Did they use the same conditions for the drawings? Can you compare two different lotteries of same size and expect that their behaviours are the same?
                      Open questions.

                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                        mid-Ohio
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                        Posted: July 31, 2013, 9:28 am - IP Logged

                        Yep, it's all about the field of numbers and combining those numbers into combinations. The larger the field, the harder and more expensive it becomes to get closer to the winning combination. To Ronnie316's credit, though, he's proven that it can be done...albeit at an astronomical cost, and, several tries. Certain combinations can, in fact, be played at certain times which increase odds of winning by a substantial margin. Just gotta have that kind of coin to do it. We're only dealing with numbers here...but a lot of 'em.

                        If I had lots of $$$ to play with, I see where hitting (5) of (5) wouldn't be terribly hard at all. Timing would be the key and I'd be willing to lose a couple of times to get there, too, because I'd still see a very handsome profit. $200K-$300K after all taxes and losses is nothing to sneeze at...especially when it can be repeated.Wink

                         

                        L.L.

                        "If I had lots of $$$ to play with, I see where hitting (5) of (5) wouldn't be terribly hard at all. Timing would be the key and I'd be willing to lose a couple of times to get there, too, because I'd still see a very handsome profit. $200K-$300K after all taxes and losses is nothing to sneeze at...especially when it can be repeated.Wink"

                        Which pick5 game can you play that consistently pays $200K-$300K for a 5 of 5 match?  All the ones I know starts out at $50K-$100K and are usually won before they reach $200K.

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
                                     Evil Looking       

                          RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                          United States
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                          Posted: July 31, 2013, 11:59 am - IP Logged


                          Before the drawing takes place every ticket put into play has 1 chance of matching the
                          numbers drawn so playing 10 lines gives me 10 possible chances. The Probability playing 
                          1 line  = 1 / 175,223,510 =  .000000006  and 10 lines = 10 / 175,223,510 = .000000057.

                          If when playing 10 lines I express my chances as 10 in 175,223,510 I get the same exact
                          probability if I use 1 / 17,522,351 = .000000057. 

                          Playing more lines is the only mathematically provable means of increasing ones chances
                          however it is very small unless you make very large bets. There are however many choices
                          that we can make that if correct will put us in a much better position to win. Removing
                          one number from the matrix will reduce a 5-39 by 73,815 lines.     

                          One of the products of random is that it produces patterns, trends, runs etc.. and it's
                          these that the system player tries to exploit. The fact that the next draw is a random
                          event, we system players cannot with certainty count on any pattern, trend, run etc..
                          continuing or showing in the next drawing.  We mine our data looking for clues, make our
                          selections and hope for the best. 

                          When these runs, trends, patterns do show then it places us in a much better position to
                          win.  Some math minded are governed by the laws of mathematics where proof must be shown
                          before a method can be justified.  The mere fact that the next draw is random should be
                          enough information for the informed to assume what we are doing does not fall within the
                          realm of provable mathematics.

                          This leads me to question anyone who tries to discredit what we do. I have been at this
                          a long time and I know the odds.  The methods I use change as often as the weather and
                          some work very well for me and others don't.  System play is more a art then anything but
                          art is being looked at more and more as a different branch of mathematics. I suggest anyone
                          who disagrees to take a look at Mandelbrot sets, we system players use math in unconventional
                          ways but what else do we have? 

                          Our resident mathematical wizz kid Jimmy like to quote the odds and tell us that we will loose
                          in the end. What jimbo does not allow for in his thinking is that our efforts while maybe not
                          mathematically provable can pay off big from time to time.  For me personally the odds are
                          the base line which I use to determine how I am doing. 

                           

                          RL

                          Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                          I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                          they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                          USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                            US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                            Avatar
                            Kentucky
                            United States
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                            February 14, 2006
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                            Posted: July 31, 2013, 12:01 pm - IP Logged

                            Who started this thread again? What is meant by math and logic? Is this a kind of riddle? What is this thread about?

                            The Texas All or Nothing game was shut down because players were using math and logic trying to win that jackpot. It wasn't because it was easy to win the jackpot, but because of the payoff structure and the game didn't have an aggregate jackpot payoff. You and I were averaging over 22% winners for every prediction, which in real play cuts the cost of a $2 ticket to less than a buck and many of the Texas players were probably doing the same thing in real play. Had any of my predictions matched 12 numbers, it would be two jackpot wins. Eventually they could had several winners in one drawing with each winner winning the jackpot twice.


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                              Posted: July 31, 2013, 12:28 pm - IP Logged

                              "Realistically what kinds of odds can one expect in a game where a dollar or two will buy you a chance to win up to a half billion  dollars?"

                              Lottery players don't even need much of a mathematical background to find the game odds on a state lottery website or or on the back of a play slip to understand winning a jackpot is very difficult at best. The next question should be knowing that why do so many people try to win and the answers is obvious; there is "1" behind the eight or nine digit number and the cost is $2 or less. Players already know it's highly unlikely they'll win, but the cost of the ticket justifies taking the risk. And based on the number of "how will you spend your winnings" discussions on LP, there is also a "feel good" psychological effect.

                              Since every drawing has a life changing jackpot and we decided the cost of play, we can play as long as we want. Does Gloria really need to justify to a math professor who believes it's a poor wager why she spent a couple of bucks a week trying to win a life changing jackpot?

                              Does Gloria really need to justify to a math professor who believes it's a poor wager why she spent a couple of bucks a week trying to win a life changing jackpot?

                              NO, and neither does she need to explain why she cut in line. Nice work beating the odds Gloria.

                                 
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