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Can math and logic improve chances of winning a jackpot?

Topic closed. 557 replies. Last post 3 years ago by sflottolover.

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RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

United States
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March 13, 2008
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Posted: August 1, 2013, 10:48 am - IP Logged

As a system before last night it hadn't produced anything over a $10 winner since PB went to the 59 numbers matrix.  For $128 there are plenty of better strategies available.

RJ

Back in the old days I use to purchase a QP and then play the 1 up and one down.  It seems to do better

than the QP.  As a system player I never really tracked it for any length of time but it seemed that many

times when I played QP's the numbers were 1 or 2 numbers off.  I think it's a good method for anyone on

a small budget.   

RL

Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

  US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

    jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
    Park City, UT
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    Posted: August 1, 2013, 12:48 pm - IP Logged

    As a system before last night it hadn't produced anything over a $10 winner since PB went to the 59 numbers matrix.  For $128 there are plenty of better strategies available.

    Didn't think their would be.  In the past I have played +1 -1 just for the Powerball number.

    Jimmy

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
      United States
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      Posted: August 1, 2013, 1:32 pm - IP Logged

      RJ

      Back in the old days I use to purchase a QP and then play the 1 up and one down.  It seems to do better

      than the QP.  As a system player I never really tracked it for any length of time but it seemed that many

      times when I played QP's the numbers were 1 or 2 numbers off.  I think it's a good method for anyone on

      a small budget.   

      RL

      To me a small budget is a couple of dollars, once you buy a quick pick or two the budget is gone.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

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        Kentucky
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        Posted: August 1, 2013, 4:24 pm - IP Logged

        If you use mathematics and logic, you don't play the lottery, but you buy a garden and plant fruit trees and vegetables. You would keep chickens and rabbits. You would exchange eggs against a woolen pullover. Probably you would look for water in the ground and try to get energy out of the wind and the sunshine. Your car would be running on water or you would just walk and use a bicycle.

        The sales declined heavily before they shut down TAON. I received a message that they would start drawing again in august. I don't know if this is true.

        If I was living in Texas, I would surely prefer tickets of 50 cents or 1 dollar and settle with 125 000 or half of that as jackpot. Maybe the lottery was just playing with the leverage, high price ticket for bigger receipts.

        I like small games. RJOH mentioned a game in Virginia, but I am in old Europe, and I have got to dance  with the dolls from here.

        Players in Texas were not winning much at TAON, they must have closed it for lack of success. Honestly their tickets sucked! Play all even, or play all odds, put a cross there. Are you freakin' kiddin' me? Odd or even is just the same in that game. I would lynch the CEO for that, what an insult to the playing population? I feel my hate for managers coming up again and my name isn't Drucker.

        TOAN is original in the way that the opposite ends pay, probably people can't live with that, also loosing 2 bucks for one line is alot of money gone. If you like to play bigger systems, this game can waste your budget.

        Anyway, mathematics and logic won't do it. A program and the mentality of a bet raising gambler maybe can do it. That of course is not mathematics and it surely isn't logical to raise the bet in a game where there is a bankadvantage. (...)

        The Texas Lottery mistake was putting the high/low even/odd boxes on their bet slips. If 100 players checked all four boxes, the lottery was risking $50 million to collect $800 if those options matched five, six, or seven numbers. If eight low and even numbers were drawn and all 100 players cashed their tickets and made the same bet, the lottery was risking $50 million in their next drawing after collecting nothing. When you add the nine and ten number matches into the mix, the lottery was risking paying out $50 million in one of the next several drawings at no additional cost to the players.

        "If I was living in Texas, I would surely prefer tickets of 50 cents or 1 dollar and settle with 125 000 or half of that as jackpot."

        Kentucky Cash Ball is a $1 a ticket, 4/33 + 1/31 game with a fixed jackpot of $200,000 and that lottery gives the players the fifty cent betting option to win half the prize. The Ohio Lottery had a 20/80 Keno like game called Ten-Oh! where a player could wager $1 and win $500,000 by matching 10 numbers. So offering fifty cent wagers for half the prize depends on how well the state lotteries understand their player base.

          Avatar
          Kentucky
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          Posted: August 1, 2013, 4:47 pm - IP Logged

          If you really want to know what happened, read the commission meeting minutes. GTech told TLC that it was possible that there would be hundreds of jackpot winners if all even or all odd numbers were draw. I played that way myself. To fix it they are putting a cap on the jackpot of $5 million. If there are more than 20 jackpot winners, then it becomes parimutuel. The commissioners will be voting on the rule change probably in August. When it's approved (and it WILL be), ticket sales will start again within 30 days or so. It had nothing to do with lack of success.

          "If there are more than 20 jackpot winners, then it becomes parimutuel."

          I believe doing that makes it's worse because having the easy option to check 1 to 4 boxes on the bet slips encouraged players to use it. If a player buys a QP and wants to play the other 12 numbers, it will take them much longer filling out a bet slip than simply checking both high/low and/or even/odd. I never played in Texas so I'm guessing playing high/low even/odd was an option on the terminal and the bet could be made without filling out a bet slip

          It's common knowledge in all lotto type games many players play 1-2-3-4-5 and 6, but the option is not on the bet slip or the terminal. If hundreds of All or Nothing players continue to using the easy to use option, they will get less than ten cents on the dollar winning the jackpot. It's a severe penalty when the option is on the bet slip and maybe on the terminal.

          IMO, the commissioners should be voting on scraping the game in favor of better thought out game with a similar payout structure.

            SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
            Economy class
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            Posted: August 1, 2013, 4:50 pm - IP Logged

            The Texas Lottery mistake was putting the high/low even/odd boxes on their bet slips. If 100 players checked all four boxes, the lottery was risking $50 million to collect $800 if those options matched five, six, or seven numbers. If eight low and even numbers were drawn and all 100 players cashed their tickets and made the same bet, the lottery was risking $50 million in their next drawing after collecting nothing. When you add the nine and ten number matches into the mix, the lottery was risking paying out $50 million in one of the next several drawings at no additional cost to the players.

            "If I was living in Texas, I would surely prefer tickets of 50 cents or 1 dollar and settle with 125 000 or half of that as jackpot."

            Kentucky Cash Ball is a $1 a ticket, 4/33 + 1/31 game with a fixed jackpot of $200,000 and that lottery gives the players the fifty cent betting option to win half the prize. The Ohio Lottery had a 20/80 Keno like game called Ten-Oh! where a player could wager $1 and win $500,000 by matching 10 numbers. So offering fifty cent wagers for half the prize depends on how well the state lotteries understand their player base.

            A poker player doesn't want house advantage but has to pay the rakes.

            Lottery players suffer of big house edge. Maybe it is time that the lotteries start thinking for the players instead of sponsoring and working money in their pockets. The already taxed money comes from the player and should return to the winning player.

            Our games here cost a euro or two euros. The old lotto had less numbers, high payouts and cost 50 cents the combination. Today the lotto has more numbers, lower relative payouts, and costs 1 euro the combination. That is modern evolution in the mind of the lottery organizers, saying that we get more chances. Hell yeah, one percent more chance to win less!

            The Texas Lottery mistake was putting the high/low even/odd boxes on their bet slips. If 100 players checked all four boxes, the l

            It is total nonense to play a combination odd and the other even, because it's the same. If it is on the form, it is rather done on purpose than by accident. Think about that! The house always wins.

            There is no 'if', there are only facts. And there is no obligation for the lottery, the lottery decides.

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              Kentucky
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              Posted: August 1, 2013, 4:55 pm - IP Logged

              To me a small budget is a couple of dollars, once you buy a quick pick or two the budget is gone.

              Wonder how many players will exceed their lottery budget when PB approaches $300 million jackpot?

                rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
                Texas
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                Posted: August 1, 2013, 5:01 pm - IP Logged

                A poker player doesn't want house advantage but has to pay the rakes.

                Lottery players suffer of big house edge. Maybe it is time that the lotteries start thinking for the players instead of sponsoring and working money in their pockets. The already taxed money comes from the player and should return to the winning player.

                Our games here cost a euro or two euros. The old lotto had less numbers, high payouts and cost 50 cents the combination. Today the lotto has more numbers, lower relative payouts, and costs 1 euro the combination. That is modern evolution in the mind of the lottery organizers, saying that we get more chances. Hell yeah, one percent more chance to win less!

                The Texas Lottery mistake was putting the high/low even/odd boxes on their bet slips. If 100 players checked all four boxes, the l

                It is total nonense to play a combination odd and the other even, because it's the same. If it is on the form, it is rather done on purpose than by accident. Think about that! The house always wins.

                There is no 'if', there are only facts. And there is no obligation for the lottery, the lottery decides.

                I usually played all even. However, many players would mark the betslips all even and on the next panel mark all odd. Why??? To win $500000. The same coild be accomplished marking 2 panels all even or all odd, but, still shooting for half a mil for $4.

                It's all moot. Changes are coming.

                CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

                A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
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                  Posted: August 1, 2013, 5:07 pm - IP Logged

                  The is a point where if a certain amount can't be charged for a ticket, the game isn't worth having.  Retailers are in business to make money and many think the 5¢ commission per ticket they get now isn't worth the trouble.  Michigan tried a game called "pocket change" a few years ago that could be played with 50¢ or less and it failed. 

                  Maybe when states have Internet games that involve less people, 50¢ games will be more popular.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                    mid-Ohio
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                    Posted: August 1, 2013, 8:44 pm - IP Logged

                    Wonder how many players will exceed their lottery budget when PB approaches $300 million jackpot?

                    Probably depend on the type of players. 

                    Serious players play to win every time they play and since the odds don't change when the jackpots get bigger, there's no reason to buy any more tickets then they normally do. 

                    Casual players buy tickets when ever they think about the lottery so they will probably buy more because they will be thinking about it more.

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       


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                      Posted: August 1, 2013, 10:06 pm - IP Logged

                      I usually played all even. However, many players would mark the betslips all even and on the next panel mark all odd. Why??? To win $500000. The same coild be accomplished marking 2 panels all even or all odd, but, still shooting for half a mil for $4.

                      It's all moot. Changes are coming.

                      On one of todds new articles somebody posted a very pretty graph of sales vs wins.

                      It was clear that due to the declining sales that there was a point where the payout was going to be much greater than the

                      income.  (Logic and Math tell me this)

                      I agree with Stack that it highly probable that this change was because of the playslip, (that is the reasoning behind having a possible 100 plus winners ) regardless of what the official minutes say.  that was an achilles heel that became more evident as sales slumped.

                      Why give the option of hi/low, etc.

                      You know how hard it must be for no system players to see 4 easy pick choices?

                      The were probably thinking, "you know I cant decide!  To many choices!  Maybe I will just play four games and choose all four different boxes"

                      Instead of stopping the game, the real easy and quiet solution would be to withdraw all the playslip and make new ones.

                      Just put one QP box.

                      After all all odd and all even is a "type of logical and mathematical system"

                      The lottery commission was in effect giving their players a possible winning system with those playslips.  You just cant have that.No No  (from a corporate point of view at least)

                        Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
                        Texas
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                        Posted: August 2, 2013, 1:11 am - IP Logged

                        "If I had lots of $$$ to play with, I see where hitting (5) of (5) wouldn't be terribly hard at all. Timing would be the key and I'd be willing to lose a couple of times to get there, too, because I'd still see a very handsome profit. $200K-$300K after all taxes and losses is nothing to sneeze at...especially when it can be repeated.Wink"

                        Which pick5 game can you play that consistently pays $200K-$300K for a 5 of 5 match?  All the ones I know starts out at $50K-$100K and are usually won before they reach $200K.

                        My fault RJOh. I was talking about matching (5) of (6) on MM's. Using my own excel system, I see where spending roughly $100K per draw, and, optimizing timing on specific combinations...a win should be realized within (5) draws and maybe less with luck. Hit five numbers for that cool $1M and that amount spent is recovered. You then pay taxes on the $1M and start over. Even if it costed $500K to win, you get it back + $500K. After big brother get's his cut, you're good.

                        The down side? You gotta have at least $500K, in my opinion, to even think of trying it.No Nod

                         

                        L.L.

                        Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                        There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                        #lotto-4-a-living

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                          Posted: August 2, 2013, 8:26 am - IP Logged

                          My fault RJOh. I was talking about matching (5) of (6) on MM's. Using my own excel system, I see where spending roughly $100K per draw, and, optimizing timing on specific combinations...a win should be realized within (5) draws and maybe less with luck. Hit five numbers for that cool $1M and that amount spent is recovered. You then pay taxes on the $1M and start over. Even if it costed $500K to win, you get it back + $500K. After big brother get's his cut, you're good.

                          The down side? You gotta have at least $500K, in my opinion, to even think of trying it.No Nod

                           

                          L.L.

                          "The down side? You gotta have at least $500K, in my opinion, to even think of trying it.No Nod"

                          If what you said was true a player with $500K could double his money every five drawings.  Don't you think if doubling your money was that easy, someone would be doing it already?

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
                                       Evil Looking       


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                            Posted: August 2, 2013, 11:31 am - IP Logged

                            "The down side? You gotta have at least $500K, in my opinion, to even think of trying it.No Nod"

                            If what you said was true a player with $500K could double his money every five drawings.  Don't you think if doubling your money was that easy, someone would be doing it already?

                            I Agree! If it could be done there are lots of people with $500k that would be doing it.

                              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                              Posted: August 2, 2013, 9:15 pm - IP Logged

                              Didn't think their would be.  In the past I have played +1 -1 just for the Powerball number.

                              Jimmy

                              Just out of curiosity I checked how effective that would have been since PB went to 35 bonus numbers and found that had you played ±1 PBs the 161 drawings you would have matched the bonus number 7 times(7/322).  You could have done as well by just replaying the last bonus number (7/161) for half the cost.

                               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                                 
                                           Evil Looking       

                                 
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