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Can math and logic improve chances of winning a jackpot?

Topic closed. 557 replies. Last post 3 years ago by sflottolover.

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RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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Posted: August 4, 2013, 10:26 am - IP Logged

I found it interesting that it was G Tech that informed TLC of the possibility of the state of Texas being put into a financial hole if one of the combinations had been drawn. Gary Grief, the person in charge at TLC made the decision at that time to stop sales in order to protect the state.

TLC is in business to make a profit. They are NOT in business to make a profit for players. He really had no choice. TLC could not take the chance.

I also found it interesting that at the commissioner's meeting the G Tech rep apologized profusely, promising that something like this would never happen again. The commssioners were not a bit happy that this happened.

I thought it was standard practice to consider liabilities caps and procedures for every game from their start.  While the head of TLC might be a political appointee, aren't there suppose to be members that actually know how to run lotteries and games of chance?

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
             Evil Looking       

    rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
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    Posted: August 4, 2013, 11:50 am - IP Logged

    I thought it was standard practice to consider liabilities caps and procedures for every game from their start.  While the head of TLC might be a political appointee, aren't there suppose to be members that actually know how to run lotteries and games of chance?

    Well, you would think so. But they didn't even think of a liability cap in this game.

    The commissioners asked if any of the other games had similar type betting, and the answer was yes, in the P3 and D4 games people play a lot of triples and quads. But they had caps on those games.

    CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

    A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

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      Kentucky
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      Posted: August 4, 2013, 1:14 pm - IP Logged

      I thought it was standard practice to consider liabilities caps and procedures for every game from their start.  While the head of TLC might be a political appointee, aren't there suppose to be members that actually know how to run lotteries and games of chance?

      The odds against matching 12 numbers or zero is still 2.7 million to 1 and the potential of multiple players playing the same numbers was overlooked by someone working for GTech. Having a limit on a fixed jackpot doesn't mean they expect lots of multiple winners. We're reading more stories of players winning fixed jackpots playing the same numbers multiple times. Recently the same player had multiple $2 million 5 + 0 matches in WVA and a KY player had ten winning $200,000 Cash Ball tickets last month.

      As players we don't see how much is bet on each combination, but because the Texas players were encouraged on the bet slips to play high/low and even/odd, enough of them used it to create the potential for a $50 million payoff regardless of the 2.7 million to 1 odds against it happening. It's possible they could continue the same game without aggregate limits with rolling jackpots making individual players betting multiple tickets on the same combos useless. That maybe a factor when the Ohio Lottery changed the fixed payoff Buckeye 5 game to Rolling Cash 5.

      On most state lottery sites a "*" is next to the PB 5 + 0 $1 million prize to note there is a possibility if multiple players play the same combo the prize could be lower.

        SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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        Posted: August 4, 2013, 2:44 pm - IP Logged

        The odds against matching 12 numbers or zero is still 2.7 million to 1 and the potential of multiple players playing the same numbers was overlooked by someone working for GTech. Having a limit on a fixed jackpot doesn't mean they expect lots of multiple winners. We're reading more stories of players winning fixed jackpots playing the same numbers multiple times. Recently the same player had multiple $2 million 5 + 0 matches in WVA and a KY player had ten winning $200,000 Cash Ball tickets last month.

        As players we don't see how much is bet on each combination, but because the Texas players were encouraged on the bet slips to play high/low and even/odd, enough of them used it to create the potential for a $50 million payoff regardless of the 2.7 million to 1 odds against it happening. It's possible they could continue the same game without aggregate limits with rolling jackpots making individual players betting multiple tickets on the same combos useless. That maybe a factor when the Ohio Lottery changed the fixed payoff Buckeye 5 game to Rolling Cash 5.

        On most state lottery sites a "*" is next to the PB 5 + 0 $1 million prize to note there is a possibility if multiple players play the same combo the prize could be lower.

        Young man, you failed in mathematics and for boolean expressions.

        The chances for a jackpot are 2:2.7 millions.

        I explained the mathematics in a thread.
        You didn't read it and if you read it, you didn't understand it.

         

          SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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          Posted: August 4, 2013, 2:51 pm - IP Logged
          SergeM's avatar - alas

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          Posted: September 6, 2012, 7:13 pm - IP LoggedFavorites
          ScoreOdds1:
          12   0,000000372704156,00
          11   0,0000532518778,86
          10   0,00161085620,79
          9   0,0178983855,87
          8   0,0906105311,04
          7   0,231962954,31
          6   0,315727353,17
          5   0,231962954,31
          4   0,0906105311,04
          3   0,0178983855,87
          2   0,00161085620,79
          1   0,0000532518778,86
          0   0,000000372704156,00

          Expectancy:
          Loss of 44% or 88 cents/bet.

          No payout:
          0,77965324
          OR
          1:1,28262148

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            Kentucky
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            Posted: August 4, 2013, 11:41 pm - IP Logged

            The odds against matching 12 numbers or zero is still 2.7 million to 1 and the potential of multiple players playing the same numbers was overlooked by someone working for GTech. Having a limit on a fixed jackpot doesn't mean they expect lots of multiple winners. We're reading more stories of players winning fixed jackpots playing the same numbers multiple times. Recently the same player had multiple $2 million 5 + 0 matches in WVA and a KY player had ten winning $200,000 Cash Ball tickets last month.

            As players we don't see how much is bet on each combination, but because the Texas players were encouraged on the bet slips to play high/low and even/odd, enough of them used it to create the potential for a $50 million payoff regardless of the 2.7 million to 1 odds against it happening. It's possible they could continue the same game without aggregate limits with rolling jackpots making individual players betting multiple tickets on the same combos useless. That maybe a factor when the Ohio Lottery changed the fixed payoff Buckeye 5 game to Rolling Cash 5.

            On most state lottery sites a "*" is next to the PB 5 + 0 $1 million prize to note there is a possibility if multiple players play the same combo the prize could be lower.

            Young man, you failed in mathematics and for boolean expressions.

            The chances for a jackpot are 2:2.7 millions.

            I explained the mathematics in a thread.
            You didn't read it and if you read it, you didn't understand it.

             

            Depends on how you figure odds.

            "The chances for a jackpot are 2:2.7 millions."

            If it makes you sleep better knowing you have 2 chances to win and 2,704,156 chances to lose, I won't wake you up.

            "I explained the mathematics in a thread."

            Members explain all sorts of stuff on 201,368 threads and in 3,061,571 posts. Did you read everyone of them?

            I didn't.

              SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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              Posted: August 5, 2013, 6:52 am - IP Logged

              Depends on how you figure odds.

              How many ways do you have?

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                Posted: August 5, 2013, 2:47 pm - IP Logged

                Depends on how you figure odds.

                How many ways do you have?

                The drawing results tell the real odds of winning the jackpot. It sure looks like you have two chances on one ticket to win the All or Nothing jackpot, but after they drawn the first number, one chance disappears so there really is only one chance. To win both of the two chances, a player must purchase two tickets and those tickets must have the opposite numbers.

                Players calculate their odds of winning the jackpot based on the number of chances they have to win as if each additional different bet greatly improves the chances of the of the first bet winning. A player will purchase ten pick-3 lines with a different 3 digit number on each line and calculate their chances of winning as 10 in 1000 or 100 to 1. The math looks fine if we ignore the fact the ten lines only have a 1 in 10 chance of matching the winning 3 digit number. Buying 10 chances to win still means there are 990 ways to lose and doesn't change the fact there is only 1 way to win. Are the odds 100 to 1 or are they really 990 to 1?

                Sure looks like two different ways to calculate the odds to me.

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                  Posted: August 5, 2013, 4:36 pm - IP Logged

                  In the game "all or nothing" will they still keep 1-24 numbers or will they add more numbers.

                    SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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                    Posted: August 5, 2013, 6:42 pm - IP Logged

                    The drawing results tell the real odds of winning the jackpot. It sure looks like you have two chances on one ticket to win the All or Nothing jackpot, but after they drawn the first number, one chance disappears so there really is only one chance. To win both of the two chances, a player must purchase two tickets and those tickets must have the opposite numbers.

                    Players calculate their odds of winning the jackpot based on the number of chances they have to win as if each additional different bet greatly improves the chances of the of the first bet winning. A player will purchase ten pick-3 lines with a different 3 digit number on each line and calculate their chances of winning as 10 in 1000 or 100 to 1. The math looks fine if we ignore the fact the ten lines only have a 1 in 10 chance of matching the winning 3 digit number. Buying 10 chances to win still means there are 990 ways to lose and doesn't change the fact there is only 1 way to win. Are the odds 100 to 1 or are they really 990 to 1?

                    Sure looks like two different ways to calculate the odds to me.

                    I pasted the correctly calculated odds above. Jackpots are paid for the extremes, so there are 2 jackpots. The odds don't change.

                    When you play AON 1 to 12 is the same then 13 to 24.

                    When you play a regular lotto, it is different, there is only one jackpot, that eventually is split because there are several winners.

                    If you play pick 3, ten different lines, your odds are 10:1000, the notation 1:100 might be seen on a playslip. The scientific notation would be 0.01.
                    Only one combination can win the first price straight, the others loose, unless there is a promotion like, payback if the last digit matches.

                    We say that a won bet pays 2:1 (douzaine roulette), but we say that your odds are 1:2 (50%).
                    You mix it up.

                    Are the odds 100 to 1 or are they really 990 to 1?

                    If you play 10 combinations at pick 3, then you did not cover 990 combinations.
                    The chance for the winning combination is the same, 1/1000.
                    10 * 0.001 + 990 * 0.001 = 1.
                    0.01 + 0.99 = 1.

                    Sure looks like two different ways to calculate the odds to me.

                    The chance that the winning combination is in the not played set, is much bigger (1-0.01=0.99).
                    The chance is 1/1000, no matter how you turn it. The chance of winning net cash is a different calculation involving the odds (chances, probability).

                    In any case the chance to guess the winning combination is 1/1000.
                    If you cover 1000 combinations, your chance is 1/1000*1000=1!

                    You will pay 1000 dollars and you will probably get 500 dollars.
                    You lost 500 and the lottery earned 500.
                    Your payout ratio is by consequence +500/-1000 = -0.5.

                      SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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                      Posted: August 6, 2013, 7:39 am - IP Logged

                      In the game "all or nothing" will they still keep 1-24 numbers or will they add more numbers.

                      Technically they might drop the payout for 4/12 and 8/12, and lift a tiny bit the payouts in the other ranks.
                      Another option would be to pay just the matching side for example, change the payouts to worse.
                      They might lower the ticket price to 1 dollar and give a  50 cents option to it.
                      Adding one number would end the even/odd and low/high.
                      They have to print new forms.
                      They might introduce keno 20/70 instead to replace AON.
                      I heard years ago that the game would move to another country and not last.
                      There are contracts, I think.

                        rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
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                        Posted: August 6, 2013, 9:08 am - IP Logged

                        They are not changing the game in any way. Just if there are more than 20 jackpot winners in a single draw, the payout becomes parimutuel.

                        Sales start again August 25th, first draw is August 26th.

                        CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

                        A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

                          SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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                          Posted: August 6, 2013, 1:37 pm - IP Logged

                          They are not changing the game in any way. Just if there are more than 20 jackpot winners in a single draw, the payout becomes parimutuel.

                          Sales start again August 25th, first draw is August 26th.

                          There you go.

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                            Posted: August 7, 2013, 1:24 am - IP Logged

                            I pasted the correctly calculated odds above. Jackpots are paid for the extremes, so there are 2 jackpots. The odds don't change.

                            When you play AON 1 to 12 is the same then 13 to 24.

                            When you play a regular lotto, it is different, there is only one jackpot, that eventually is split because there are several winners.

                            If you play pick 3, ten different lines, your odds are 10:1000, the notation 1:100 might be seen on a playslip. The scientific notation would be 0.01.
                            Only one combination can win the first price straight, the others loose, unless there is a promotion like, payback if the last digit matches.

                            We say that a won bet pays 2:1 (douzaine roulette), but we say that your odds are 1:2 (50%).
                            You mix it up.

                            Are the odds 100 to 1 or are they really 990 to 1?

                            If you play 10 combinations at pick 3, then you did not cover 990 combinations.
                            The chance for the winning combination is the same, 1/1000.
                            10 * 0.001 + 990 * 0.001 = 1.
                            0.01 + 0.99 = 1.

                            Sure looks like two different ways to calculate the odds to me.

                            The chance that the winning combination is in the not played set, is much bigger (1-0.01=0.99).
                            The chance is 1/1000, no matter how you turn it. The chance of winning net cash is a different calculation involving the odds (chances, probability).

                            In any case the chance to guess the winning combination is 1/1000.
                            If you cover 1000 combinations, your chance is 1/1000*1000=1!

                            You will pay 1000 dollars and you will probably get 500 dollars.
                            You lost 500 and the lottery earned 500.
                            Your payout ratio is by consequence +500/-1000 = -0.5.

                            "I pasted the correctly calculated odds above."

                            The odds are posted on the Texas Lottery website and only you know why it was necessary to calculate and show them here.

                            "Jackpots are paid for the extremes, so there are 2 jackpots."

                            If there really are two jackpots, someone is ignoring the fact one ticket can only win one jackpot and believe it or not none of the other prizes with two chances to win can't win twice either. The odds are correct on the website (1 in 2,704,156) because once the first number is drawn the opposite jackpot becomes one of the 2,704,155 losing chances.

                            The odds of ten lines each with a different pick-3 straight combo matching the drawing can be expressed as 10 chances out of 1000 and reduced to 1 chance out of every 100 chances. And as I said before if players feel better by expressing the odds as 100 to 1 even though there are 990 ways to lose, I won't rain on their parade. From the lottery's point of view, they know only one three digit number will be drawn and there are 990 other unplayed numbers by the player believing they improved their odds to 100 to 1.

                            Another way to look at reducing the odds by expressing them differently is to play 10 pick-lines using the same digit in the first digit position with each of the 10 digits in the second digit position and saying the odds are 9 to 1 by correctly guessing the first digit. 

                            "Your payout ratio is by consequence +500/-1000 = -0.5"

                            That's true but when but when a player bets $3 each on ten straight pick-3 numbers and wins, they collect $1470, which isn't a bad payoff considering the 990 to 1 odds. And even a better payoff if they believe the odds are 100 to 1 or 9 to 1. I'm not arguing about how odds are calculated or expressed, just pointing out there are several different methods.

                            *edited to add Steve Player will advertise a pick-3 system where a player picks one digit, with 9 to 1 odds of winning $500 and will sell it for $49.99.

                              SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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                              Posted: August 7, 2013, 6:49 am - IP Logged

                              "I pasted the correctly calculated odds above."

                              The odds are posted on the Texas Lottery website and only you know why it was necessary to calculate and show them here.

                              "Jackpots are paid for the extremes, so there are 2 jackpots."

                              If there really are two jackpots, someone is ignoring the fact one ticket can only win one jackpot and believe it or not none of the other prizes with two chances to win can't win twice either. The odds are correct on the website (1 in 2,704,156) because once the first number is drawn the opposite jackpot becomes one of the 2,704,155 losing chances.

                              The odds of ten lines each with a different pick-3 straight combo matching the drawing can be expressed as 10 chances out of 1000 and reduced to 1 chance out of every 100 chances. And as I said before if players feel better by expressing the odds as 100 to 1 even though there are 990 ways to lose, I won't rain on their parade. From the lottery's point of view, they know only one three digit number will be drawn and there are 990 other unplayed numbers by the player believing they improved their odds to 100 to 1.

                              Another way to look at reducing the odds by expressing them differently is to play 10 pick-lines using the same digit in the first digit position with each of the 10 digits in the second digit position and saying the odds are 9 to 1 by correctly guessing the first digit. 

                              "Your payout ratio is by consequence +500/-1000 = -0.5"

                              That's true but when but when a player bets $3 each on ten straight pick-3 numbers and wins, they collect $1470, which isn't a bad payoff considering the 990 to 1 odds. And even a better payoff if they believe the odds are 100 to 1 or 9 to 1. I'm not arguing about how odds are calculated or expressed, just pointing out there are several different methods.

                              *edited to add Steve Player will advertise a pick-3 system where a player picks one digit, with 9 to 1 odds of winning $500 and will sell it for $49.99.

                              Chair

                                 
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