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Poll: New National Game October 19th - Will You Play?

Topic closed. 94 replies. Last post 2 years ago by savagegoose.

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Will you play the upcoming national MONOPOLY Millionaires' Club game?

Definitely! [ 18 ]  [21.18%]
Maybe, I don't know. [ 21 ]  [24.71%]
No, $5 is too much for a ticket! [ 34 ]  [40.00%]
Depends on how it lives up to its claims. [ 12 ]  [14.12%]
Total Valid Votes [ 85 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 7 ]  
LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
Happyland
United States
Member #146344
September 1, 2013
1129 Posts
Offline
Posted: November 22, 2014, 6:50 pm - IP Logged

It looks like Monopoly Millionaires' Club losing money has caught the attention of the media. I read an article in the Indianapolis Business Journal about the lottery losing money and the burden it will put on their private vendor if it doesn't succeed. The lottery cannot be happy about this at all. (Internally, they are obsessed with mentions in the press they literally track every news story posted, date etc. They have even started relying on the media to drive sales for record jackpots.)

I suspect, as I have said since the beginning, that MUSL overestimated player's interest in this game. They knew they would be starting off with a loss before the other states joined in, but their starting sales estimates were still grossly exaggerated (I think I posted that they anticipated about $20 million in sales...real sales are about 1/5th of that). I have seen the research they performed and it is suspicious to say the least. I get the feeling that there is some confirmation bias going on whenever they try to rationalize new games. It completely contradicts the player sentiment from the sample poll performed here on LP, and while this forum may not speak for every player, it speaks for those who play these kinds of games. I also think they may have complicated the game too much by having 2 different "codes" from the start (webcode and MMC number). The most common confusion I see is comments like, "Where do I enter my MMC code?" Not to mention that it may take up to 12 hours before the Club prizes are announced, and the drawings are completely computerized, which creates breeding grounds for conspiracy theories. It is true that some people are simply unintelligent and cannot understand the rules of lottery games, but on the other hand, the lottery didn't start educating players on the game until just a few weeks to launch. They should've started months earlier IMO. I remember when Mega Millions came to my state, they made a BIG deal and talked about it for a couple months before it ever hit stores. Times change and budgets change, I suppose.

However, I have a pretty good feeling about the TV show if they can get it off to a good start. From my understanding of what they game show will entail, it should be pretty exciting. Btw don't misconstrue my criticisms as hate for this game. I like the concept, and I secretly want it to succeed. I am mostly curious about its potential to become a favorable bet (albeit rare one). It is early in the game so time will tell.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

    Avatar
    Wyomissing, PA
    United States
    Member #161050
    November 15, 2014
    301 Posts
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    Posted: November 22, 2014, 7:13 pm - IP Logged

    A peeve of mine is that MMC still doesn't explain the details of the Vegas TV game. Appears MUSL is winging it and hoping for the best. A bad sign!

    Good point about the different "codes" - can be confusing; too complicated for some players.

    I don't see how adding more states helps matters. On the face, it should, but my hunch is, much as has happened with MM and PB, there will be strings of early jackpot ("top prize") hits making matters worse. MM and PB can better absorb early hits, and still earn a sizable profit. MMC can't - from what I've read, it needs upwards of a dozen rollovers just to break-even, though that improves somewhat as more states join in. Time will tell how it plays out.

    Even if the top prize rolls over numerous times, excitement may wane, especially if rumors get going about how the drawing is "fixed" ... and that's easily conceivable, since the drawing is computerized and the property number is computer picked. Changing MMC to a non-computerized draw with traditional ping-pong like balls would greatly boost confidence in the game. As of now, I'd be very wary playing much, even more so early on, knowing MUSL has the potential ability to influence when the top prize will be hit; delaying it for many rollovers.

      LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
      Happyland
      United States
      Member #146344
      September 1, 2013
      1129 Posts
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      Posted: November 22, 2014, 7:21 pm - IP Logged

      A peeve of mine is that MMC still doesn't explain the details of the Vegas TV game. Appears MUSL is winging it and hoping for the best. A bad sign!

      Good point about the different "codes" - can be confusing; too complicated for some players.

      I don't see how adding more states helps matters. On the face, it should, but my hunch is, much as has happened with MM and PB, there will be strings of early jackpot ("top prize") hits making matters worse. MM and PB can better absorb early hits, and still earn a sizable profit. MMC can't - from what I've read, it needs upwards of a dozen rollovers just to break-even, though that improves somewhat as more states join in. Time will tell how it plays out.

      Even if the top prize rolls over numerous times, excitement may wane, especially if rumors get going about how the drawing is "fixed" ... and that's easily conceivable, since the drawing is computerized and the property number is computer picked. Changing MMC to a non-computerized draw with traditional ping-pong like balls would greatly boost confidence in the game. As of now, I'd be very wary playing much, even more so early on, knowing MUSL has the potential ability to influence when the top prize will be hit; delaying it for many rollovers.

      Well see, the problem with switching to balls is that ball drawings cost money! It is cheap/easy to click a mouse or punch some keys (software requires development, but that is one-time), but with ball drawings they have to purchase and maintain new machines and rotate ball sets. This would amplify losses even further.

      From my listening to them discuss the game all through its development, reading all the internal documents and optimistic research, and so on.......what comes to my mind is greed. I don't mean that in a "evil" way, it's just they are so desperate to get around the jackpot fatigue that they think they can trick players with a new concept and higher price point and magically rake in more money per capita than either MM or PB combined. Everything about this game leans on the Monopoly brand but doesn't really provide much value. It's ludicrous and scary and makes me wonder how they got their jobs. They talk about potential but nothing quantitative to back that up. The lottery conferences are pretty eye-opening, especially when one of the directors bad-mouths their own state legislature.

      Whenever they launch a new game they do build in some flexibility. So it is possible we could see a matrix change if things don't start picking up. But if the TV show fails to boost sales and the added states (which I personally think that will help, especially having California) don't do anything then this will be short-lived to say the least. Hasbro is not going to let their name brand be tarnished by an unpopular game. Just like they only partner with McDonald's for their promotion and not Joe's Tasty Burgers, they will pack up and take their intellectual property elsewhere. The failure of this game would likely seal the fate of other brand considerations too.

      If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
      If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

      2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
      P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

        Avatar

        United States
        Member #145267
        August 1, 2013
        1502 Posts
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        Posted: November 22, 2014, 8:24 pm - IP Logged

        So, do you think the early win was to pull people in?

          savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
          adelaide sa
          Australia
          Member #37136
          April 11, 2006
          3300 Posts
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          Posted: November 22, 2014, 9:38 pm - IP Logged

          If they had charged $5 a ticket for mega millions they could have called it " billionaires club "

          2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016 JAN = -106; FEB= -81; MAR= -131; APR= - 87: MAY= -91; JUN= -39; JUL=-134; AUG= -124; SEP = -123; OCT= -84  NOV=- 73 TOT= -3498

          keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= JAN=-32, FEB= +12 , MAR= -86, APR = -77. MAY= -48, JUN= -29, JUL=-71; AUG = -52; SEPT= -43; OCT = +56 NOV = -33 TOT= -3297