Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 6, 2016, 2:46 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Who plays more, who loses more?

Topic closed. 98 replies. Last post 1 year ago by Stack47.

Page 2 of 7
4.319
PrintE-mailLink
Avatar
Lisbon
Portugal
Member #167185
June 29, 2015
22 Posts
Offline
Posted: July 30, 2015, 11:26 am - IP Logged

This is directly from the powerball website FAQ section

WHICH HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF WINNING: COMPUTER PICKS OR PLAYER PICKS?

About 70% to 80% of purchases are computer picks. About 70% to80% of winners are computer picks. Perhaps just one of those weird coincidences?

It is not difficult to explain that fact: computer play randomly; people not. 

Viciously people use to pick numbers below 31, because birthday dates. 

 

This means that computers get the expected hits for a given amount of numbers which is called theoretical average (TA) but people stay below that reference because that strange addiction related with birthdays.

So, computer  are not getting more money (they get the expected money according maths); are the people who are getting less prizes comparing with TA.

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
    United States
    Member #9
    March 24, 2001
    19825 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: July 30, 2015, 11:32 am - IP Logged

    I cant say who pays more, or wins more. just that last yeare i had an average return of %32, and so far this years its tracking along at $22%.

    meaning for every $100 I bet, I get back $22 in wins, and $32  last years.

    oh and i play my own numbers, hehe usually the same one unless they really suck, then i might change them.

    If your returns are anything like your predictions stats, then you're doing even worst. Wink

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
      United States
      Member #9
      March 24, 2001
      19825 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: July 30, 2015, 11:38 am - IP Logged

      It is not difficult to explain that fact: computer play randomly; people not. 

      Viciously people use to pick numbers below 31, because birthday dates. 

       

      This means that computers get the expected hits for a given amount of numbers which is called theoretical average (TA) but people stay below that reference because that strange addiction related with birthdays.

      So, computer  are not getting more money (they get the expected money according maths); are the people who are getting less prizes comparing with TA.

      When I play birthday numbers I included the year.  Since I'm fairly old that only gets me up to 42 but younger people could go all the way to 97.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
        Texas
        United States
        Member #55889
        October 23, 2007
        5595 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: July 30, 2015, 1:20 pm - IP Logged

        I never go around rating posts, but I did rate this one 5 stars just because Silverlion was so snarky about rating 1 star. And, it's a good topic.

        CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

        A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

          mikeintexas's avatar - tx avatar-1.gif
          Texas Panhandle
          United States
          Member #136843
          December 20, 2012
          1275 Posts
          Online
          Posted: July 30, 2015, 1:29 pm - IP Logged

          I never go around rating posts, but I did rate this one 5 stars just because Silverlion was so snarky about rating 1 star. And, it's a good topic.

          I Agree! Same here.  Snark can be funny at times, but in this case it seemed uncalled for.   Then again, maybe Silverlion is just p.o.'d about Cecil.

            rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
            Texas
            United States
            Member #55889
            October 23, 2007
            5595 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: July 30, 2015, 1:44 pm - IP Logged

            Who do you think plays more tickets (lines), people playing quick picks or self picks?

            (Keep it to jackpot games)

            Who do you think loses more, money wise? Consider that most tickets are losers.

            Used to be I had all kinds of charts, then my computer caught a virus and went to the great server in the sky, along with my files.

            Anymore I usually just buy 1 QP for each jackpot game, though today I bought 2 lines for Saturday's lotto draw. One QP, the other a SP.

            For the pool at work, I've gotten pretty lazy and I now usually buy QP's. Every now and then I'll take time and pick out numbers to play (it's always MM or PB).

            I guess with the crazy odds these games have, I'm just taking the lazy way. LOL.

            All I know is most of my tics are losers, SP or QP. Well, I did hit the megaball Tuesday night with the megaplier.  The first 5 numbers were QP, the megaball was a SP.

            Not sure it even matters. The Michigan guy won the Lotto buying 5 QP's. The last line was the winner.

            CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

            A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

              Avatar
              Kentucky
              United States
              Member #32652
              February 14, 2006
              7309 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: July 30, 2015, 3:35 pm - IP Logged

              According to the media, 70% of tickets bought in most draws are quick picks. The qp crowd wins hands down. If they play more then it makes sense that they win/lose more.

              I Agree! and I'm wondering why the poster who copied and pasted the FAQ multiple times is asking which group buys more tickets. Maybe somebody will explain to them that 51% of something is more than 49% and because only 20% to 30% of all ticket sales are self picks, QPs play more and lose more.

                noise-gate's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcR91HDs4UJhjxO7cmeMQWZ5lB_FOcMLOGicau4V74R45tDgPWrr
                Bay Area - California
                United States
                Member #136477
                December 12, 2012
                4107 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: July 30, 2015, 5:02 pm - IP Logged

                I Agree! and I'm wondering why the poster who copied and pasted the FAQ multiple times is asking which group buys more tickets. Maybe somebody will explain to them that 51% of something is more than 49% and because only 20% to 30% of all ticket sales are self picks, QPs play more and lose more.

                I'm wondering why the poster who copied and pasted the FAQ multiple times is asking which group buys more tickets

                ...because Common Sense is Not common. Some people need to be told the same thing over and over again in order for the message to penetrate. l will bet you soup for nuts Stack that if you had a noticeable  Red Button attached to your living room wall with a sign that read " Please do not push under any circumstances"  and you invited folks over to your home,  how many people do you think would say " I read what it says but l'm going to push it anyway and find out what happens!"

                People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it- George Bernard Shaw.

                  Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                  Zeta Reticuli Star System
                  United States
                  Member #30470
                  January 17, 2006
                  10351 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: July 30, 2015, 5:18 pm - IP Logged

                  I Agree! and I'm wondering why the poster who copied and pasted the FAQ multiple times is asking which group buys more tickets. Maybe somebody will explain to them that 51% of something is more than 49% and because only 20% to 30% of all ticket sales are self picks, QPs play more and lose more.

                  Stack47,

                  As noise-gate pointed out, some here seem to be in denial about how many QPs are played.

                  Some people think that everyone else plays like they do.

                  But for the purpose of this thread, let's say I'm a $2 MM player, always play one line and the Megaplier.

                  Let's also say that you or someone else who put hours into theories, tracking past results, etc.  picks your own numbers and plays $10 a draw, a lot more if the JP is pumped up.

                  Neither one of us wins a thing.

                  Now, who lost more?

                  And for any given drawing, who loses more, people playing one line, often QPs, or people paying multiple lines of self picks?

                  In other words, who loses more relative to the buy in?

                  Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                  Lep

                  There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                    Avatar
                    Lisbon
                    Portugal
                    Member #167185
                    June 29, 2015
                    22 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: July 30, 2015, 5:35 pm - IP Logged

                    If your returns are anything like your predictions stats, then you're doing even worst. Wink

                    I suppose you are not very familiar with randomness.

                    You should know randomness does not match with regularity.  That is why in order to predict we must use fractal maths, not euclidian or gaussian.  So, the  last thing we should expect from a predictive system is regular income. That would be contradictory because randomness cannot produce regular income otherwise it would not be randomness.

                    However, in the medium and long term the situation is different. The time reduces volatility and gives chance good períods and bad períods to coexist. Finally, if the system works good períods surpass bad períods.  Even so, to predict doeS not mean to profit. It just means to beat TA

                     

                    So, RJOH your age advices more patince and ponderation.

                     

                    Remembering an old european saying: Rome was not made in a single day!

                    Let`s talk about this in one or two years and we will see!

                      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                      Zeta Reticuli Star System
                      United States
                      Member #30470
                      January 17, 2006
                      10351 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: July 30, 2015, 6:56 pm - IP Logged

                      rcbuckeye,

                      Thanks for the comment and the info.
                      /////////////

                      All,
                      There were or maybe still are some people here who are clerks at stores that sell tickets. Any insight on the most common purchase?

                      Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                      Lep

                      There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                        SilverLion's avatar - 8ball

                        United States
                        Member #165541
                        April 12, 2015
                        541 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: July 30, 2015, 11:37 pm - IP Logged

                        I suppose you are not very familiar with randomness.

                        You should know randomness does not match with regularity.  That is why in order to predict we must use fractal maths, not euclidian or gaussian.  So, the  last thing we should expect from a predictive system is regular income. That would be contradictory because randomness cannot produce regular income otherwise it would not be randomness.

                        However, in the medium and long term the situation is different. The time reduces volatility and gives chance good períods and bad períods to coexist. Finally, if the system works good períods surpass bad períods.  Even so, to predict doeS not mean to profit. It just means to beat TA

                         

                        So, RJOH your age advices more patince and ponderation.

                         

                        Remembering an old european saying: Rome was not made in a single day!

                        Let`s talk about this in one or two years and we will see!

                        It just means to beat TA

                        What does beat to T and A mean?

                        You are not referring to the same T and A that  I always beat to is it?

                        On a more serious note, Fractal math, didn't even exist when I was in school.  How can I benefit or even understand something that was never taught to me. 

                        Ok fractal math was used to do the CGI for the third STAR TREK movie.   They never used it to predict.

                        The average. 

                        How many lottery programs even discuss the idea of "average"

                        LOA.

                        The LOA says your chance of winning with a QP is very small.

                        RIP Cecil.   (I hope they at least made some steak of you.)  The Dentist?  I bet he doesn't even know that you could probably get 50,000 for a lion phallus, from a chinese billionaire.

                        (<snip> YOU CHINA!!)

                        Maybe I should start a new thread?

                        I could even make a new system thread.

                        The lair of the defunct cecil.  No point.  Probably would get locked.

                        Coin Toss.  You first called me a tout.

                        Then you called me a sleaze ball.

                        I am not a smart man, but I feel that you are treading on the abusive.

                        You need to re-read the rules.  You can be sent to the black hole land of no avatar for that type of behaviour.

                        You need to get off your high horse. 

                        You were a career casino worker ripping off hard working americans, and international tourists for way too long. 

                        I think you could learn something about the lottery and randomness, (if you really cared)

                        I dont need or want an anecdote for your pit master experiences.  Put those in the gaming forum.

                        Keep it on topic or keep it moving.

                        This post has been automatically changed by the Lottery Post computer system to remove inappropriate content and/or spam.

                          rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
                          Texas
                          United States
                          Member #55889
                          October 23, 2007
                          5595 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: July 30, 2015, 11:47 pm - IP Logged

                          It just means to beat TA

                          What does beat to T and A mean?

                          You are not referring to the same T and A that  I always beat to is it?

                          On a more serious note, Fractal math, didn't even exist when I was in school.  How can I benefit or even understand something that was never taught to me. 

                          Ok fractal math was used to do the CGI for the third STAR TREK movie.   They never used it to predict.

                          The average. 

                          How many lottery programs even discuss the idea of "average"

                          LOA.

                          The LOA says your chance of winning with a QP is very small.

                          RIP Cecil.   (I hope they at least made some steak of you.)  The Dentist?  I bet he doesn't even know that you could probably get 50,000 for a lion phallus, from a chinese billionaire.

                          (<snip> YOU CHINA!!)

                          Maybe I should start a new thread?

                          I could even make a new system thread.

                          The lair of the defunct cecil.  No point.  Probably would get locked.

                          Coin Toss.  You first called me a tout.

                          Then you called me a sleaze ball.

                          I am not a smart man, but I feel that you are treading on the abusive.

                          You need to re-read the rules.  You can be sent to the black hole land of no avatar for that type of behaviour.

                          You need to get off your high horse. 

                          You were a career casino worker ripping off hard working americans, and international tourists for way too long. 

                          I think you could learn something about the lottery and randomness, (if you really cared)

                          I dont need or want an anecdote for your pit master experiences.  Put those in the gaming forum.

                          Keep it on topic or keep it moving.

                          This post has been automatically changed by the Lottery Post computer system to remove inappropriate content and/or spam.

                          "The LOA says your chance of winning with a QP is very small".

                          Tell that to the Michigan guy that won the lotto with a QP. Bought 5 lines. Last line was the winner.

                          Nothing wrong with picking your own numbers, but the odds don't change either way.

                          CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

                          A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

                            dr65's avatar - black panther.jpg
                            Pennsylvania
                            United States
                            Member #74096
                            May 2, 2009
                            22893 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: July 30, 2015, 11:58 pm - IP Logged

                            Didn't matter which I choose, they lose or win a couple bucks. I rarely play jp games

                            and if I do, it's while in line when the jp is high. I might ask for 5/10 lines and rarely

                            fill in a slip. I don't track numbers or have a constant set of numbers. I've won the

                            bonus ball number sometimes but it seems when a slip/thought is involved, I win 

                            nothing lol. My -off the top of my head numbers- stink.

                            I prefer qp's and believe, for me, it's a better choice if I'm playing.

                            246 ~~ 485 ~~ 369 ~~ 890 ~~ 705 ~~ 357 ~~ 129 ~~ 165 ~  007 ~ 225 ~ 818 ~ 440 ~  7775 5557

                              Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                              Zeta Reticuli Star System
                              United States
                              Member #30470
                              January 17, 2006
                              10351 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: July 31, 2015, 1:12 am - IP Logged

                              tinkitty,

                              You post:

                              Coin Toss.  You first called me a tout.

                              Then you called me a sleaze ball.

                              I am not a smart man, but I feel that you are treading on the abusive.

                              You need to re-read the rules.  You can be sent to the black hole land of no avatar for that type of behaviour.

                              You need to get off your high horse.


                              After asking others to give a thread a 1-star rating. Who is on a high horse?

                              Aw, you're offended - <GASP>

                              The world doesn't revolve around you.

                              Then you get judgemental:

                              You were a career casino worker ripping off hard working americans, and international tourists for way too long.

                              (Americans should be capitalized or don't you know that?

                              Let me tell you something. clown. Any form of gambling is as much the ego business as gambling to entertainment. WQe would have good "Georges" come play (good tokers, 'Generous George') and if a table was cold we'd tell them to try another one.....but oh, no, "Give me the dice boys, I'll warm it up."
                              Same guy, $500, $1000 or more later, "Why didn't you guys tell me this table was cold?"

                              You also make assumptions, I didn't work on the Strip and most of the "International tourists" you're fantasizing about were Hawaiians.

                              And you're telling me to keep it on topic in a thread I started and you put your erroneous $.02 in?

                              You don't know one hundredth of what you think you know and have a lot to learn about lotteries, people, and life.

                              Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                              Lep

                              There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.