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noise-gate

* In hot pursuit of $ *

White Shores- California
United States
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Jul 31, 2015, 1:37 am

Whose ?

* Voice of Reason *

* People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it- George Bernard Shaw.
RedStang

NY
United States
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January 21, 2012
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Jul 31, 2015, 1:45 am

I'll say QPs for both ? since it's fast and that's what most pools choose, but I've seen players fill out more lines on slips for MM then PB probably because of the cost.
rentappredictor

Lisbon
Portugal
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June 29, 2015
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Jul 31, 2015, 5:51 am

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Jul 30, 2015
When I play birthday numbers I included the year. Since I'm fairly old that only gets me up to 42 but younger people could go all the way to 97.

So you were born in 42?

You are pretty old RJOH!!

Now tell me 42 b.c or a.c?
savagegoose

adelaide sa
Australia
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April 11, 2006
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Jul 31, 2015, 2:45 pm

Quote: Originally posted by noise-gate on Jul 30, 2015
Gee savagegoose , do l understand you correctly that you gave this thread " One Star rating " because your return on your investment is pretty bad and that your own numbers really suck?. How is that Coin's fault?

ooops

i thought i clicked 4* i never usually rate any posts. so sorry coin toss. but 1 is more than i usually give! how can i edit it?

but your conclusion is based on a false premise based on no data i think its called post hoc. " or this comes after this " so it must be the cause.

but my bumbling clicking was the cause. i except my numbers my fault.

ALTHOUGH !

my flat mate has agreed to tell me his bets and winnings for the next several months maybe a year, and he always plays quick picks, so i will have comparable data. unless either of us hits a big one, that will be cut off, as too exceptional so likely to skew the data

" Still swinging, still missing "
2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016 = -1171; 2017 = -1257 ; 2018 = - 1380 = TOT = - 6233

keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= -424; 2017 =-427; 2018= -223 TOT = -3968

:
savagegoose

adelaide sa
Australia
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April 11, 2006
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Jul 31, 2015, 3:18 pm

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Jul 30, 2015
If your returns are anything like your predictions stats, then you're doing even worst.

ok challenge accepted. ill make some predictions using my 10 free per draw on mega and powerball,. for 7 draws using my ea number only once method

" Still swinging, still missing "
2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016 = -1171; 2017 = -1257 ; 2018 = - 1380 = TOT = - 6233

keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= -424; 2017 =-427; 2018= -223 TOT = -3968

:
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
United States
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March 24, 2001
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Jul 31, 2015, 3:44 pm

Quote: Originally posted by savagegoose on Jul 31, 2015
ok challenge accepted. ill make some predictions using my 10 free per draw on mega and powerball,. for 7 draws using my ea number only once method

If hard to win 20% of the cost on either PB or MM without winning a decent prize and that's seldom done by premium members with 50 picks but good luck.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
CDanaT

Central TN
United States
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January 4, 2012
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Jul 31, 2015, 3:52 pm

Gotta beeeeeee.....the QP
JADELottery

Native American Eagle Sun

MN
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December 7, 2001
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Jul 31, 2015, 3:53 pm

How quick pick does a self pick, pick, if a self pick could quick picks?

The One Over None
I Know...
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
United States
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March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
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Jul 31, 2015, 5:10 pm

Quote: Originally posted by JADELottery on Jul 31, 2015
How quick pick does a self pick, pick, if a self pick could quick picks?

In Ohio and I suppose in other states too you can replay and old ticket so an old ticket that was a QP is a Self Pick the second time around but a Self Pick is always a Self Pick no matter how quickly it goes around.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
Coin Toss

Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
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Jul 31, 2015, 5:33 pm

savagegoose,

No problem, I know the star wasn't for spite.

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
Stack47

Kentucky
United States
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February 14, 2006
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Aug 1, 2015, 6:47 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on Jul 30, 2015
Stack47,

As noise-gate pointed out, some here seem to be in denial about how many QPs are played.

Some people think that everyone else plays like they do.

But for the purpose of this thread, let's say I'm a $2 MM player, always play one line and the Megaplier.

Let's also say that you or someone else who put hours into theories, tracking past results, etc. picks your own numbers and plays $10 a draw, a lot more if the JP is pumped up.

Neither one of us wins a thing.

Now, who lost more?

And for any given drawing, who loses more, people playing one line, often QPs, or people paying multiple lines of self picks?

In other words, who loses more relative to the buy in?

"In other words, who loses more relative to the buy in?"

In Friday's drawing, 15,604,534 million MM tickets were sold and assuming about 70% to 80% of those tickets were QPs, between 11 million and 12.5 million were QPs. There were 1,061,051 winning tickets sold (6.8% of the sales) and again assuming 70% to 80% of the winners were QPs 200K to 300K were self picks.

Without any exact sales figures of actual number of QPs and the exact number of QPs winners, it's impossible to determine "relative to buy in". But it's obvious for that drawing whichever the jackpot winner was (qp or self pick), won more than the other. If your 70% to 80% statistics are correct, QPs will always be that percentage of sales and winning tickets.

Do the math, if 10 players each bought 1 QP and if 1 player bought 5 self picks and none of the tickets won anything, who lost more?
pickone4me

Wisconsin
United States
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January 23, 2011
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Aug 1, 2015, 6:58 pm

Quote: Originally posted by noise-gate on Jul 29, 2015
These words ring true Eternal..

Keep in mind it applies to you too.

Redacted
Coin Toss

Zeta Reticuli Star System
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Aug 1, 2015, 7:02 pm

Stack47,

Assuming we're talking $1 per ticket, the QP players each lost $1, the self pick player lost $5.

For 'relative to the buy in', let's say there were two winners who won $500 each. One of them had played $1 and the other had played $50, now who won more, RELATIVE TO THE BUY IN.

For the gist of this thread (silly me, or so I thought) someone would mention that someone stops for gas, chips, etc...and the clerk says, "Want to play tonight's lotto?", so they spend a buck on a QP, as opposed to someone with a system who has multiple playslips already filled out.

I'm not sure any state lotto operator or the NUSL would release the stats, so ..................

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
garyo1954

Texas
United States
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May 2, 2004
4,228 Posts
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Aug 1, 2015, 8:23 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on Aug 1, 2015
Stack47,

Assuming we're talking $1 per ticket, the QP players each lost $1, the self pick player lost $5.

For 'relative to the buy in', let's say there were two winners who won $500 each. One of them had played $1 and the other had played $50, now who won more, RELATIVE TO THE BUY IN.

For the gist of this thread (silly me, or so I thought) someone would mention that someone stops for gas, chips, etc...and the clerk says, "Want to play tonight's lotto?", so they spend a buck on a QP, as opposed to someone with a system who has multiple playslips already filled out.

I'm not sure any state lotto operator or the NUSL would release the stats, so ..................

Making up numbers doesn't change the fact QPs lose more than SPs.

People who play SPs buy QPs too. So you can't separate the whole bunch and say Qp'ers vs Sp'ers.

What you can do is say if 70% are Qps and 30% are Sps, then more than twice as much is lost on Qps as Sps.

Having seen people spend $20 to $50 on Qps, any thoughts that Qp'ers only spend $1 is laughable. If anything the Sp'ers are more money conscience.

That doesn't exclude the possibility that some might play just $1 on Qps or on SPs. I've seen people who tell the clerk to give them lottery tickets instead of their change. Most times that's a buck or two. I've done it too. But....

The facts, substantiated by the 70/30 statement, is

that if $10,000,000 in tickets are sold, then

$7,000,000 were bought by QP'ers,

and $3,000,000 were SP'ers.

With one winner, holding a QP,

$6,999,999 million was lost on QPS,

while only $3,000,000 was lost on SPs.

70/30 says this is a fact. No question.

And its irrelevant that a QP won because none of the losing QP'ers are going to get one dime of the jackpot.

I'm probably here unless I'm not.
Dreaming would be a perfectly useless function if it's only purpose was to entertain.
Coin Toss

Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
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Aug 2, 2015, 12:45 am

Most here probably don't remember Casey Stengel, managed the Yankees. One of the things he was famous for saying was, "Go with the percentages."

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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