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Who plays more, who loses more?

Topic closed. 98 replies. Last post 1 year ago by Stack47.

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savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
adelaide sa
Australia
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April 11, 2006
3300 Posts
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Posted: August 2, 2015, 4:26 am - IP Logged

If hard to win 20% of the cost on either PB or MM without winning a decent prize and that's seldom done by premium members with 50 picks but good luck. Wink

i play  some games here in oz  in a share arrangement with an american buddy, we play the same amount on our local games and  go halves in the winnings. his american powerball/ mega millions ; and my aussie oz lotto and power ball both return %10 of the money bet so far.

2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016 JAN = -106; FEB= -81; MAR= -131; APR= - 87: MAY= -91; JUN= -39; JUL=-134; AUG= -124; SEP = -123; OCT= -84  NOV=- 73 TOT= -3498

keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= JAN=-32, FEB= +12 , MAR= -86, APR = -77. MAY= -48, JUN= -29, JUL=-71; AUG = -52; SEPT= -43; OCT = +56 NOV = -33 TOT= -3297

    sully16's avatar - sharan
    Ringleader
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    Posted: August 2, 2015, 6:49 am - IP Logged

    I play both, I think qp's win more.

    Did you exchange a walk on part in the war ?

    For a lead role in a cage?

     

                                                From Pink Floyd's " Wish you were here"

      Avatar

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      Member #161539
      December 3, 2014
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      Posted: August 2, 2015, 7:10 am - IP Logged

      This story means nothing for SPs or QPs ... maybe just being lucky ... maybe finally just being on the right ship or dock !!!

      She played both that night ... covering all the bases I guess. It could have went either way.

      It can only be luck in the end ... some people seem to have more of it than others. Skill can't be involved when you have such fantastic odds trying to win a large jackpot amount.

      If you remember the young woman from MI who won a MM jackpot in June 2014 ... first it was Friday June 13th, which means nothing ... except that it was Friday the 13th ... she had five tickets ... four were SPs and one was a QP, which was the winner for her.

      Had she not bought that one QP, it's possible her picture would not have been in the paper. The paper article says "easy pick" which I assume is a QP.

      "The lottery said Zachow bought five Mega Millions plays that day and her fifth set of numbers, an easy pick, was the winner."

      24-Year-Old Single Michigan Mom Wins $66 Million Lottery

      Associated Press

      08/01/2014

      A Port Huron, Michigan, woman who won a $66 million Mega Millions jackpot that was drawn in mid-June said Thursday that she didn't learn for 10 days that the winning ticket was in her purse.

      Kelsey Zachow, 24, will get her jackpot as a one-time lump-sum cash payment of nearly $38 million and will take home nearly $27 million after taxes, the Michigan Lottery said. She said she had accumulated several lottery tickets in her purse before checking the numbers.

      "When the clerk at the store told me I had a big winner I was positive that he was mistaken," Zachow said in a statement. "There was a long line in the store behind me, so I decided to leave and looked the numbers up - when I got into my car. That's when I realized I had won the jackpot and could barely breathe."

      The ticket for the June 13 drawing of the multistate lottery game was sold at Sonny Tarhini's Mount Clemens gas station and store. The lottery said Zachow bought five Mega Millions plays that day and her fifth set of numbers, an easy pick, was the winner.
      ...

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
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        Posted: August 2, 2015, 12:43 pm - IP Logged

        i play  some games here in oz  in a share arrangement with an american buddy, we play the same amount on our local games and  go halves in the winnings. his american powerball/ mega millions ; and my aussie oz lotto and power ball both return %10 of the money bet so far.

        The return you can expect on money spent on a lottery ticket depends on the game design.

        PB has a 1:31.8 overall win rate which with it's lowest prize of $4 amounts to $ 0.126 per $2 ticket or 3.1 %.

        MM has a 1:14.7 overall win rate which with it's lowest prize of $1 amounts to $ 0.068 per $1 ticket or 6.8 %.

        On the other hand a game like Texas's *A or N has a 1:4.5 overall win rate which with it's lowest prize of $2 amounts to $ 0.444 per $2 ticket or 22.2 % but it's top prize is only $250K as compared with minimum top prizes of MM and PB of $15M and $40M.

        It's only when you can exceed the expected overall win rates that you can claim some success.

        *A or N = "All or Nothing"

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

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          Kentucky
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          Posted: August 2, 2015, 11:39 pm - IP Logged

          Stack47,

          Assuming we're talking $1 per ticket, the QP players each lost $1, the self pick player lost $5.

          For 'relative to the buy in', let's say there were two winners who won $500 each. One of them had played $1 and the other had played $50, now who won more, RELATIVE TO THE BUY IN.

          For the gist of this thread (silly me, or so I thought) someone would mention that someone stops for gas, chips, etc...and the clerk says, "Want to play tonight's lotto?", so they spend a buck on a QP, as opposed to someone with a system who has multiple playslips already filled out.

          I'm not sure any state lotto operator or the NUSL would release the stats, so ..................

          Let's just say 75% of ticket sales and prize winners are QPs and make it easier to explain. It means for every $25 spent on self picks, $75 is spent on QPs whether or not 75 players buy one ticket or one player buys 75. Your "relative to buy-in" is comparing apples to oranges unless you're comparing one QP player purchasing 75 tickets to one SP player purchasing 25.

          "For 'relative to the buy in', let's say there were two winners who won $500 each. One of them had played $1 and the other had played $50, now who won more, RELATIVE TO THE BUY IN."

          Statistics say a 75 ticket QP MM player should have five winning tickets and the SP player one or two. The winners should be two $2 and the rest $1. It's possible 1 QP or 50 SP tickets could win $500, but the odds against one ticket winning $500 are 52,835 to 1. There are lots of Pick-5 wheels $50 and under self pick players can choose from where the odds against are the odds of them matching enough numbers.

          "so they spend a buck on a QP, as opposed to someone with a system who has multiple playslips already filled out."

          I'm pretty sure the majority of LP members know purchasing multiple tickets cost more than one ticket.

            Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
            Zeta Reticuli Star System
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            Posted: August 3, 2015, 1:18 am - IP Logged

            Stack,

            You really don't understand what relative to the buy in means.

            Joe buys one ticket for a Pick 5 game and wins a jackpot of $300,000.

            Bill buys $25 worth of tickets for a Pick 5 game and wins $300,000.

            Joe won a heck of a lot more RELATIVE TO THE BUY IN.

            Or try two players bet on horde races. One spent $30 on the day and left the track with $1600.

            The other spent $10,000 and walked with $10,600.

            The guy who spent $30 won a lot more relative to the buy in.

            If you need any further explanation you just don't get the concept.

            Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

            Lep

            There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

              Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
              Texas
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              Posted: August 3, 2015, 12:20 pm - IP Logged

              Stack,

              You really don't understand what relative to the buy in means.

              Joe buys one ticket for a Pick 5 game and wins a jackpot of $300,000.

              Bill buys $25 worth of tickets for a Pick 5 game and wins $300,000.

              Joe won a heck of a lot more RELATIVE TO THE BUY IN.

              Or try two players bet on horde races. One spent $30 on the day and left the track with $1600.

              The other spent $10,000 and walked with $10,600.

              The guy who spent $30 won a lot more relative to the buy in.

              If you need any further explanation you just don't get the concept.

              Another and more simpler way of discussing this is through profit. Two people can spend different amounts on the same game while looking for the same payout/prize. Of course, whoever spends less will turn more profit but, my question would be if the person that spent less can DUPLICATE that win again with that same amount and this holds true with the small games in a big way. In the first example above, a Pick 5 win of that amount would render the $24 difference in cost EXTREMELY NEGLIGIBLE 'cause it would be pure luck. The second example is closer to reality in my opinion. The first bettor netted a $1,570 profit while the second bettor netted a $600 profit...you must factor in the cost or 'buy in' and subtract that accordingly. The difference in profits between the two bettors is $970.

              So, if we relate this to the Pick games, then we can see how spending very little is really more about luck and minimizing costs. But, how long will it take to duplicate a given win...if at all? Is it better to hope for a large uncertain profit or play skillfully for a smaller more consistent and predictable profit? Might be something to think about.

              Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

              There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

              #lotto-4-a-living

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                Kentucky
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                Posted: August 3, 2015, 4:09 pm - IP Logged

                Stack,

                You really don't understand what relative to the buy in means.

                Joe buys one ticket for a Pick 5 game and wins a jackpot of $300,000.

                Bill buys $25 worth of tickets for a Pick 5 game and wins $300,000.

                Joe won a heck of a lot more RELATIVE TO THE BUY IN.

                Or try two players bet on horde races. One spent $30 on the day and left the track with $1600.

                The other spent $10,000 and walked with $10,600.

                The guy who spent $30 won a lot more relative to the buy in.

                If you need any further explanation you just don't get the concept.

                The "buy in" for QPs is 70% to 80% of ticket sales and according to the PB FAQ you keep quoting, winning tickets are the same proportion.

                "Joe buys one ticket for a Pick 5 game and wins a jackpot of $300,000. Bill buys $25 worth of tickets for a Pick 5 game and wins $300,000.
                Joe won a heck of a lot more RELATIVE TO THE BUY IN."

                LMAO @ $24 being "a heck of a lot more". The first imaginary guy spent a buck and won $299,999 and the second spent $25 and won $299,975. Winning 0.008% more isn't exactly a huge difference. And that's assuming the SP didn't play a wheel and have other winning tickets.

                "Or try two players bet on horde races. One spent $30 on the day and left the track with $1600. The other spent $10,000 and walked with $10,600. The guy who spent $30 won a lot more relative to the buy in."

                Not another silly scenario trying to prove "relative to buy in" actually proves SPs lose more than QPs, but I'll play along. Two players split a $100 million jackpot and one takes the cash and the other takes payments, Which player won the most "relative to buy in"?

                "If you need any further explanation you just don't get the concept."

                Nobody is disputing a large majority (over 70%) of MM and PB ticket sales are QPs and the percentage of winning tickets should be proportionally the same. Lots of LP members said they play one line of SPs and one line of QPs which makes your "relative to buy in" exactly the same as another playing two QPs or two SPs.

                  eddessaknight's avatar - nw paladin.jpg
                  LAS VEGAS
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                  Posted: August 3, 2015, 5:03 pm - IP Logged

                  Sorry Coin for carpal inspired typo on star button, agree or not you really should have 5 STARS ***** for all your shared relevant gaming insights!

                  Best Wishes,

                  Eddessa_Knight Sun Smiley

                    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                    Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                    Posted: August 3, 2015, 5:06 pm - IP Logged

                    Thanks, Edessa.

                    Stack47,

                    You share
                    Statistics say a 75 ticket QP MM player should have five winning tickets and the SP player one or two. The winners should be two $2 and the rest $1. It's possible 1 QP or 50 SP tickets could win $500, but the odds against one ticket winning $500 are 52,835 to 1. There are lots of Pick-5 wheels $50 and under self pick players can choose from where the odds against are the odds of them matching enough numbers.

                    That's the statistics, yeah, but what you're not saying is this, you cannot assume those stats will hold up for every player. Ten 75 ticket QP MM players could win nothing, same for ten SP players, and then one comes along, buys 50 or 75 tickets and wins something on most of them. When the people running the lottery for that draw tally things up the stats will prove themselves but that will have done nothing for the players who knew the stats and didn't win a thing.

                    Consider the advertised payback on slot machines. "Our machines pay 97.4%". Out of every $1000 played $974 are paid out. Not to everyone though. Nine people run $100 through the machines and get nothing. Then someone wins $1000, etc...ad nauseam. At the end of the day the stats will have proven themselves on that machine, but not to all the players.Smile

                    As for relative to the buy in, who do you think the house would rather have playing, someone who will drop $10,000 and maybe walk with $1,000 or lose the whole $10,000, or someone who will buy in for $100 and "run a toothpick into a lumber yard"?

                    The latter is known as a 'feared player' and believe me there are very few.

                    Hi-rollers are hi-losers, be it race tracks, sports betting lotteries, etc....

                    Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                    Lep

                    There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                      Avatar
                      Kentucky
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                      Posted: August 3, 2015, 5:17 pm - IP Logged

                      Another and more simpler way of discussing this is through profit. Two people can spend different amounts on the same game while looking for the same payout/prize. Of course, whoever spends less will turn more profit but, my question would be if the person that spent less can DUPLICATE that win again with that same amount and this holds true with the small games in a big way. In the first example above, a Pick 5 win of that amount would render the $24 difference in cost EXTREMELY NEGLIGIBLE 'cause it would be pure luck. The second example is closer to reality in my opinion. The first bettor netted a $1,570 profit while the second bettor netted a $600 profit...you must factor in the cost or 'buy in' and subtract that accordingly. The difference in profits between the two bettors is $970.

                      So, if we relate this to the Pick games, then we can see how spending very little is really more about luck and minimizing costs. But, how long will it take to duplicate a given win...if at all? Is it better to hope for a large uncertain profit or play skillfully for a smaller more consistent and predictable profit? Might be something to think about.

                      "Two people can spend different amounts on the same game while looking for the same payout/prize."

                      I was on a Craps table betting $5 line bets with double odds and two $5 Come bets with double odds and a player next to me was betting exactly the same way, but his bets were $500. When we both quit, his winnings (or losses) were 100 times more than mine.

                      Coin Toss' example could be changed to a one ticket buying SP player winning the same jackpot as a 25 ticket buying QP player. If I buy 25 tickets for just one drawing and another player buys 1 ticket for 104 drawings a year, my "relative to buy in" is much higher for one drawing but lower for the entire year.

                        garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                        Dallas, Texas
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                        Posted: August 3, 2015, 5:53 pm - IP Logged

                        "Two people can spend different amounts on the same game while looking for the same payout/prize."

                        I was on a Craps table betting $5 line bets with double odds and two $5 Come bets with double odds and a player next to me was betting exactly the same way, but his bets were $500. When we both quit, his winnings (or losses) were 100 times more than mine.

                        Coin Toss' example could be changed to a one ticket buying SP player winning the same jackpot as a 25 ticket buying QP player. If I buy 25 tickets for just one drawing and another player buys 1 ticket for 104 drawings a year, my "relative to buy in" is much higher for one drawing but lower for the entire year.

                        I agree with stack.

                        There is no proof that SP'ers play more per person than QP'ers. That's the fatal flaw.

                        So what if Aunt Mae spend $2 on QP, while Peter Parker spend $8 on SPs?

                        Batman dropped $50 on QPs, Robin spent $3 on SPs.

                        Wonder Woman's pool played $500 on QPs paid for with cash and past winning.

                        Iron Man's pool only afford $200 on SPs.

                        Do you think if Aunt Mae wins she's worried about Batman's loss?

                        Do you think she's going to tell Iron Man, "I won and you spent 100 times what I did?"

                        And does it matter to anyone that Wonder Woman lost?

                        Do you think Superman is sitting around super comparing his $1 loss to Thor's $5 bonus ball hit?

                        The only fact we have is the 70% was spent on QPs and 30% was on SPs.

                        If nobody wins, and 10 million is spent, 7 million was lost on QPs and 3 million on SPs.

                        Two rolls, 14 million lost on QPs, 6 million on SPs,

                        Three 21 million lost on QPs, 9 million lost on SPs,

                        At roll ten 70 million is lost on QPs and 30 million on SPs!!!!!!!

                        There is no proof, no evidence, nothing to suggest that SP'ers play more per person than QP'ers. If anything the numbers suggests QP'er are more free with their lottery money.

                        My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                          Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                          Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                          Posted: August 3, 2015, 8:34 pm - IP Logged

                          Stack47,

                          In lotteries, relative to the buy in would be for a particular draw. Sounds like you're trying to alter the term to fit you conception of it.

                          Pass line and full odds and two come bets on a number and full odds and another come bet is considered the hardest player to beat, but a place bettor will make more money, they get paid as soon as the number hits, they don't have to wait for it to repeat. On a monster roll a place bettor that presses or power presses will really make more money.

                          garyo1954,

                          I've never heard QP players talk about wheeling numbers. On this forum plenty of self pick players talk about it.

                          Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                          Lep

                          There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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                            Kentucky
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                            Posted: August 3, 2015, 10:29 pm - IP Logged

                            Thanks, Edessa.

                            Stack47,

                            You share
                            Statistics say a 75 ticket QP MM player should have five winning tickets and the SP player one or two. The winners should be two $2 and the rest $1. It's possible 1 QP or 50 SP tickets could win $500, but the odds against one ticket winning $500 are 52,835 to 1. There are lots of Pick-5 wheels $50 and under self pick players can choose from where the odds against are the odds of them matching enough numbers.

                            That's the statistics, yeah, but what you're not saying is this, you cannot assume those stats will hold up for every player. Ten 75 ticket QP MM players could win nothing, same for ten SP players, and then one comes along, buys 50 or 75 tickets and wins something on most of them. When the people running the lottery for that draw tally things up the stats will prove themselves but that will have done nothing for the players who knew the stats and didn't win a thing.

                            Consider the advertised payback on slot machines. "Our machines pay 97.4%". Out of every $1000 played $974 are paid out. Not to everyone though. Nine people run $100 through the machines and get nothing. Then someone wins $1000, etc...ad nauseam. At the end of the day the stats will have proven themselves on that machine, but not to all the players.Smile

                            As for relative to the buy in, who do you think the house would rather have playing, someone who will drop $10,000 and maybe walk with $1,000 or lose the whole $10,000, or someone who will buy in for $100 and "run a toothpick into a lumber yard"?

                            The latter is known as a 'feared player' and believe me there are very few.

                            Hi-rollers are hi-losers, be it race tracks, sports betting lotteries, etc....

                            "That's the statistics, yeah, but what you're not saying is this, you cannot assume those stats will hold up for every player."

                            Which part of "About 70% to 80% of purchases are computer picks" is still confusing you? While it's satire, almost everyone knowledgeable agrees at least 70% of PB and MM ticket purchases are QPs.

                            "Ten 75 ticket QP MM players could win nothing, same for ten SP players"

                            It's obvious "About 70% to 80% of winners are computer picks." is still confusing you too. About 3.14% of all tickets sales win a prize and about 70% of all winning tickets are QPs. Oh, and 96.84% of all ticket sales win nothing and about 70% of the losing tickets are QPs.

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                              Kentucky
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                              Posted: August 3, 2015, 10:32 pm - IP Logged

                              Stack47,

                              In lotteries, relative to the buy in would be for a particular draw. Sounds like you're trying to alter the term to fit you conception of it.

                              Pass line and full odds and two come bets on a number and full odds and another come bet is considered the hardest player to beat, but a place bettor will make more money, they get paid as soon as the number hits, they don't have to wait for it to repeat. On a monster roll a place bettor that presses or power presses will really make more money.

                              garyo1954,

                              I've never heard QP players talk about wheeling numbers. On this forum plenty of self pick players talk about it.

                              What is a lottery "buy in"?