Here is a quick estimate I use to calculate the odds for matching so many numbers in a random game.
In this example lets use mega millions 5-75. If we divide 75 by 5 we get 15 so for every 15 numbers
we pick we can expect to get one correct. It's possible to hit none of the winning numbers but it's also
possible to trap all 5 in a list of 15. Now let's look at the 5-39, 39/5=7.8 so for every 7.8 numbers I choose
I can expect to get 1 number correct. 7.8 * 4 = 31.2 so on average if I wheel 31.2 numbers I can expect
to have 4 of the winning numbers close to 100% of the time. Again it's within the realm of possibilities
to match none or all 5. Starting with 142,506 lines is like playing 24.75 percent of the matrix and we can
expect to match all 5 numbers when wheeling 30 numbers around 1 in every 4 attempts. Since a 4of5
match is almost certain how hard could it be for any self respecting lottery player to increase that to 50/50
for a 5of5. The game odds for a 4of5 are only 1 in 3387 so in the 30 numbers generated we could also
expect around 42 of the lines to have 4 of 5 correct. I can filter the 142,506 lines down to around 10 with
very little effort. For a 30 number pool I need to go from odds of 1 in 7.8 to 1 in 6 for every number selected.
RL