Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 9, 2016, 2:19 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Statistically Speaking - QP's and PP's

Topic closed. 1161 replies. Last post 6 years ago by Todd.

Page 1 of 78
54
PrintE-mailLink
rdgrnr's avatar - walt
Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
United States
Member #73904
April 28, 2009
14903 Posts
Offline
Posted: July 9, 2010, 12:50 pm - IP Logged

Couldn't the whole Quick Pick / Player Pick (System) controversy be solved with statistics?

 

According to the latest back and forth:

Quick Picks account for 70% of the tickets sold and 70% of the winning tickets.

Player Picks account for 30% of the tickets sold and 30% of the winning tickets.

That outcome would be and is in accordance with the odds.

 

My question then is this:

If one method of play is better, wouldn't it's winning percentage fare better than it's sales percentage?

For instance, if Player Picks are better, shouldn't they garner maybe 35 to 40% of the winners while only accounting for 30% of the sales?

 

If neither method  beats the odds of winning percentage vs. sales percentage, how is one better than the other? 

As it stands now, if the percentages are correct, Player Picks win at the same dumb luck rate as Quick Picks

 

It would seem to me that in order to have a definitive answer, one would have to find a little edge, a little bulge in the percentage of wins vs. sales on a consistent basis to prove the superiority of one style of play over the other.

 

Or am I nuts?


                                             
                     
                                         

 

 

 

 

                                                                                                   

"The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                            --Edmund Burke

 

 


    United States
    Member #81843
    October 31, 2009
    856 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: July 9, 2010, 1:16 pm - IP Logged

    No you are not nuts.

     In fact you look at things too rationally and let facts speak for themselves.

    The thing that throws the QP’s out for me are the duplicate sales of QP’s sets (winners and losers) when there are not enough sales to indicate one entire pool of combinations is exhausted. Duplicate losers and multiple winners on low sales tells me dumb luck is not involved. Three people have shared a QP win on a small jackpot. The sales and the prize payout would indicate that no less than two complete pools of QP combinations were sold. Neither happened.

    DD

    LP is the biggest site for players to meet in and there are less than 100,000 members. I would venture to say that the systematic play is a small percentage of all playslip betting. By systematic I mean bets that are made using something more than favorite numbers, played faithfully. To look at the sales is not enough to determine if QP’s are statistically superior to true systems. One point to note is the lack of advertising for systematic play and the advertising for QP’s.

      four4me's avatar - gate1
      MD
      United States
      Member #1701
      June 18, 2003
      8363 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: July 9, 2010, 1:28 pm - IP Logged
      To each his own.... i think the average player chooses q picks because they have no knowledge of wheels or systems. Lots of sales of q picks might include pools where the group purchases quick picks.
      I've been in pool where 10 people pitched in 10 bucks for 100 q picks when i asked the group if they wanted to create a wheel for the next pot they were like Huh! what are you talking about... I explained how a wheel works and they chose q picks over any wheeling attempt every time i suggested it.. They strongly believed that 100 quick picks would yield a wider dispersement of numbers.
       
      If more people actually chose their numbers rather than buy Q picks then that group would win more but in the real world system players are few and far between the average ticket purchaser.
      Then there is the third group of players who only purchase the same picks every time.... and the mom and pop players that choose numbers based on family numbers birthdays and such this group wins sometimes and will brag about how they chose their picks. Some people might call this a system but in actually it's not... it's just luck.

      Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

                     I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.

        United States
        Member #81843
        October 31, 2009
        856 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: July 9, 2010, 1:41 pm - IP Logged
        To each his own.... i think the average player chooses q picks because they have no knowledge of wheels or systems. Lots of sales of q picks might include pools where the group purchases quick picks.
        I've been in pool where 10 people pitched in 10 bucks for 100 q picks when i asked the group if they wanted to create a wheel for the next pot they were like Huh! what are you talking about... I explained how a wheel works and they chose q picks over any wheeling attempt every time i suggested it.. They strongly believed that 100 quick picks would yield a wider dispersement of numbers.
         
        If more people actually chose their numbers rather than buy Q picks then that group would win more but in the real world system players are few and far between the average ticket purchaser.
        Then there is the third group of players who only purchase the same picks every time.... and the mom and pop players that choose numbers based on family numbers birthdays and such this group wins sometimes and will brag about how they chose their picks. Some people might call this a system but in actually it's not... it's just luck.

        Wheeling is the best approach I know for the big games. It works in the small ones too. Systematic play is not as easy as QP’s and few consider what they can do to improve their chances to win at a game. They just throw money at it and hope.

        DD

         

          We may never know the success rate of systematic play. The small sample here at the predictions page may not be sufficient to use it as an overall measuring stick. Some members do not post what they put into play. I am one of them.

          sully16's avatar - sharan
          Ringleader
          Michigan
          United States
          Member #81740
          October 28, 2009
          40564 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: July 9, 2010, 1:44 pm - IP Logged

          Good thread ridge, I believe it's personal choice.

          I go both ways, and don't you dare...tee hee

          If I have time to pick my numbers I do, if not I get quick picks.

          Did you exchange a walk on part in the war ?

          For a lead role in a cage?

           

                                                      From Pink Floyd's " Wish you were here"

            visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
            light on my feet
            United States
            Member #356
            May 20, 2002
            2744 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: July 9, 2010, 2:22 pm - IP Logged

            Couldn't the whole Quick Pick / Player Pick (System) controversy be solved with statistics?

             

            According to the latest back and forth:

            Quick Picks account for 70% of the tickets sold and 70% of the winning tickets.

            Player Picks account for 30% of the tickets sold and 30% of the winning tickets.

            That outcome would be and is in accordance with the odds.

             

            My question then is this:

            If one method of play is better, wouldn't it's winning percentage fare better than it's sales percentage?

            For instance, if Player Picks are better, shouldn't they garner maybe 35 to 40% of the winners while only accounting for 30% of the sales?

             

            If neither method  beats the odds of winning percentage vs. sales percentage, how is one better than the other? 

            As it stands now, if the percentages are correct, Player Picks win at the same dumb luck rate as Quick Picks

             

            It would seem to me that in order to have a definitive answer, one would have to find a little edge, a little bulge in the percentage of wins vs. sales on a consistent basis to prove the superiority of one style of play over the other.

             

            Or am I nuts?

            "As it stands now, if the percentages are correct, Player Picks win at the same dumb luck rate as Quick Picks"

             

            bingo #  235

            that is a an accurate statement based on a factual / statistical ongoing basis.

            it's a fate driven result.  nothing more, and nothing less.

            the simple lottery litmus test as to whether "systems" work is just what i stated factually in the other thread......that if systems actually did work,  then even as many system players as there are at LP,  that  would drive those statistics way higher.

            either a system works,  or it doesn't.   

            a true "system" that did work would be  repeatable

            any 'system' that worked once,  is no more viable than a quick pick on the validity scale of things

            the fact that 10years of LP,  and not one "system win",   vs the systems efforts in here,  proves your above yellow highlighted fact

                        "i am .........."meant to"       

            P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                     until further notice,  it's  france everyday


              United States
              Member #81843
              October 31, 2009
              856 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: July 9, 2010, 3:00 pm - IP Logged

              Oh poop! I cannot see Vision-dud's posts anymore.

              DD


                United States
                Member #75358
                June 1, 2009
                5345 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: July 9, 2010, 3:00 pm - IP Logged

                Good thread ridge, I believe it's personal choice.

                I go both ways, and don't you dare...tee hee

                If I have time to pick my numbers I do, if not I get quick picks.

                Hey Ridge, she rubs the betslips to make them hot, and now she says.......

                Nevermind, I'll let you handle this one....

                  sully16's avatar - sharan
                  Ringleader
                  Michigan
                  United States
                  Member #81740
                  October 28, 2009
                  40564 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: July 9, 2010, 3:28 pm - IP Logged

                  Hey Ridge, she rubs the betslips to make them hot, and now she says.......

                  Nevermind, I'll let you handle this one....

                  I was talking about clog dancing, sometimes I go left sometimes I go right.

                  Did you exchange a walk on part in the war ?

                  For a lead role in a cage?

                   

                                                              From Pink Floyd's " Wish you were here"

                    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                    Zeta Reticuli Star System
                    United States
                    Member #30470
                    January 17, 2006
                    10353 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: July 9, 2010, 4:40 pm - IP Logged

                    Good thread ridge, I believe it's personal choice.

                    I go both ways, and don't you dare...tee hee

                    If I have time to pick my numbers I do, if not I get quick picks.

                    We need the "zipit" emotie!

                    Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                    Lep

                    There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.


                      United States
                      Member #56862
                      December 6, 2007
                      1826 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: July 9, 2010, 7:28 pm - IP Logged

                      I wonder if alot of people get the exact quick pick,  all those states that play powerball could indeed get duplicate tickets.   i like quick picks i personally believe (because it happened to me) that tennessee let me win off of a quick pick because it made their payout  look decent.   o i forgot it is random and just plain luck.

                        jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
                        Harbinger
                        D.C./MD.
                        United States
                        Member #44103
                        July 30, 2006
                        5583 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: July 9, 2010, 8:00 pm - IP Logged

                        Couldn't the whole Quick Pick / Player Pick (System) controversy be solved with statistics?

                         

                        According to the latest back and forth:

                        Quick Picks account for 70% of the tickets sold and 70% of the winning tickets.

                        Player Picks account for 30% of the tickets sold and 30% of the winning tickets.

                        That outcome would be and is in accordance with the odds.

                         

                        My question then is this:

                        If one method of play is better, wouldn't it's winning percentage fare better than it's sales percentage?

                        For instance, if Player Picks are better, shouldn't they garner maybe 35 to 40% of the winners while only accounting for 30% of the sales?

                         

                        If neither method  beats the odds of winning percentage vs. sales percentage, how is one better than the other? 

                        As it stands now, if the percentages are correct, Player Picks win at the same dumb luck rate as Quick Picks

                         

                        It would seem to me that in order to have a definitive answer, one would have to find a little edge, a little bulge in the percentage of wins vs. sales on a consistent basis to prove the superiority of one style of play over the other.

                         

                        Or am I nuts?

                        There is probably a tighter ratio of QP ticket to QP player than PP ticket to PP player.  We need to know those ratios to get that garner.  With QP's you can't establish a baseline for comparison efficiently with the time it would take to do such a thing.   That is why the jackpot challenges are so good for PP'ing.  QP's are just the opposite,  no thought process in selection,  pure randomness,  not a "per se" method other than picking to play QP's.  When I play the dang numbers I play to win and beat the odds,  if you  select 3 numbers correctly out of 5 you have beat 1 / 306 odds in Mega, 4 of 5,  1 / 15,300+. w/ the mega ball over 1 / 600,000.  And with a short wheel you can win significantly,  you can never do this with QP's. 

                        Bottom line is this:  it doesn't help improve your play to compare apples and oranges.

                        The jackpot challenges help improve your play and is fully documented and tracked.  Has anybody just used RNG's to play the challenges?

                          Avatar
                          CA
                          United States
                          Member #84266
                          December 26, 2009
                          410 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: July 9, 2010, 8:48 pm - IP Logged

                          What about people who pick their own numbers but randomly without premediatating what they will pick?


                            United States
                            Member #75358
                            June 1, 2009
                            5345 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: July 9, 2010, 9:01 pm - IP Logged

                            What about people who pick their own numbers but randomly without premediatating what they will pick?

                            That's called a Quick Person. They use their own RND built within their brains to pick numbers without any thought. Of course there will always be thought in the process.

                            I won 720 bucks last year in the Florida Fantasy Five, by doing exactly that sort of thing. It was a fluke. I went to the Publix supermarket to get provisions, and I always play at least a buck or two on the p-3 and the Fantasy Five. I merely picked out numbers and got 4 out of 5. Luckily for me, No one had all 5 numbers, so the JP rolldown to second tier prize holders was 720 bucks.

                            I guess you can call it a "Partial QP"...

                              jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
                              Harbinger
                              D.C./MD.
                              United States
                              Member #44103
                              July 30, 2006
                              5583 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: July 9, 2010, 9:07 pm - IP Logged

                              "As it stands now, if the percentages are correct, Player Picks win at the same dumb luck rate as Quick Picks"

                               

                              bingo #  235

                              that is a an accurate statement based on a factual / statistical ongoing basis.

                              it's a fate driven result.  nothing more, and nothing less.

                              the simple lottery litmus test as to whether "systems" work is just what i stated factually in the other thread......that if systems actually did work,  then even as many system players as there are at LP,  that  would drive those statistics way higher.

                              either a system works,  or it doesn't.   

                              a true "system" that did work would be  repeatable

                              any 'system' that worked once,  is no more viable than a quick pick on the validity scale of things

                              the fact that 10years of LP,  and not one "system win",   vs the systems efforts in here,  proves your above yellow highlighted fact

                              What does repeatable mean?  I believe repeatable means consistently in the ball park w/ jp games anything better than 2 of 5 3 of 5 3 of 6 4 of 6.  Hitting like that regularly using 8 to 12 number wheels gets you 4 of 5 5 of 6 every couple of months when you get next to the draw in numbers correct.  The objective is getting the 5 of 5 6 of 6  as a surprise.  I would be happy with one,  reset the machine.

                              Repeatable cannot mean jackpot jackpot jackpot jackpot.  Never going to happen. Not QP same place or PP from the same person. 

                              Now the facts are these,  people have hit 5 of 5 6 of 6 on LPost,  Litebets I think just got a 5 of 5!  And Winlaotta got 5 0f 5 on the Mega challenge,  there are more this year alone.  I've gotten a couple of 4 of 5 this year on record, 5 of 6 etc.

                              Pball

                              Here is an example of prior test LOOK closely.  Before I started using the wheels.

                                 
                                Page 1 of 78