Statistically Speaking - QP's and PP'sPrev Topic Next Topic

New Topic New Poll

rdgrnr

100

The Hall Of The Mountain Kings Tennessee
United States
Member #73,902
April 28, 2009
15,378 Posts
Offline

Jul 9, 2010, 12:50 pm

Couldn't the whole Quick Pick / Player Pick (System) controversy be solved with statistics?

According to the latest back and forth:

Quick Picks account for 70% of the tickets sold and 70% of the winning tickets.

Player Picks account for 30% of the tickets sold and 30% of the winning tickets.

That outcome would be and is in accordance with the odds.

My question then is this:

If one method of play is better, wouldn't it's winning percentage fare better than it's sales percentage?

For instance, if Player Picks are better, shouldn't they garner maybe 35 to 40% of the winners while only accounting for 30% of the sales?

If neither method beats the odds of winning percentage vs. sales percentage, how is one better than the other?

As it stands now, if the percentages are correct, Player Picks win at the same dumb luck rate as Quick Picks

It would seem to me that in order to have a definitive answer, one would have to find a little edge, a little bulge in the percentage of wins vs. sales on a consistent basis to prove the superiority of one style of play over the other.

Or am I nuts?
Delta Draw

United States
Member #81,841
October 31, 2009
856 Posts
Offline

Jul 9, 2010, 1:16 pm

No you are not nuts.

In fact you look at things too rationally and let facts speak for themselves.

The thing that throws the QP’s out for me are the duplicate sales of QP’s sets (winners and losers) when there are not enough sales to indicate one entire pool of combinations is exhausted. Duplicate losers and multiple winners on low sales tells me dumb luck is not involved. Three people have shared a QP win on a small jackpot. The sales and the prize payout would indicate that no less than two complete pools of QP combinations were sold. Neither happened.

DD

LP is the biggest site for players to meet in and there are less than 100,000 members. I would venture to say that the systematic play is a small percentage of all playslip betting. By systematic I mean bets that are made using something more than favorite numbers, played faithfully. To look at the sales is not enough to determine if QP’s are statistically superior to true systems. One point to note is the lack of advertising for systematic play and the advertising for QP’s.
four4me

MD
United States
Member #1,701
June 18, 2003
10,731 Posts
Offline

Jul 9, 2010, 1:28 pm

To each his own.... i think the average player chooses q picks because they have no knowledge of wheels or systems. Lots of sales of q picks might include pools where the group purchases quick picks.

I've been in pool where 10 people pitched in 10 bucks for 100 q picks when i asked the group if they wanted to create a wheel for the next pot they were like Huh! what are you talking about... I explained how a wheel works and they chose q picks over any wheeling attempt every time i suggested it.. They strongly believed that 100 quick picks would yield a wider dispersement of numbers.

If more people actually chose their numbers rather than buy Q picks then that group would win more but in the real world system players are few and far between the average ticket purchaser.

Then there is the third group of players who only purchase the same picks every time.... and the mom and pop players that choose numbers based on family numbers birthdays and such this group wins sometimes and will brag about how they chose their picks. Some people might call this a system but in actually it's not... it's just luck.

Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
Delta Draw

United States
Member #81,841
October 31, 2009
856 Posts
Offline

Jul 9, 2010, 1:41 pm

Quote: Originally posted by four4me on Jul 9, 2010
To each his own.... i think the average player chooses q picks because they have no knowledge of wheels or systems. Lots of sales of q picks might include pools where the group purchases quick picks.

I've been in pool where 10 people pitched in 10 bucks for 100 q picks when i asked the group if they wanted to create a wheel for the next pot they were like Huh! what are you talking about... I explained how a wheel works and they chose q picks over any wheeling attempt every time i suggested it.. They strongly believed that 100 quick picks would yield a wider dispersement of numbers.

If more people actually chose their numbers rather than buy Q picks then that group would win more but in the real world system players are few and far between the average ticket purchaser.

Then there is the third group of players who only purchase the same picks every time.... and the mom and pop players that choose numbers based on family numbers birthdays and such this group wins sometimes and will brag about how they chose their picks. Some people might call this a system but in actually it's not... it's just luck.

Wheeling is the best approach I know for the big games. It works in the small ones too. Systematic play is not as easy as QP’s and few consider what they can do to improve their chances to win at a game. They just throw money at it and hope.

DD

We may never know the success rate of systematic play. The small sample here at the predictions page may not be sufficient to use it as an overall measuring stick. Some members do not post what they put into play. I am one of them.
sully16

25

Ringleader

Michigan
United States
Member #81,738
October 28, 2009
128,266 Posts
Online

Jul 9, 2010, 1:44 pm

Good thread ridge, I believe it's personal choice.

I go both ways, and don't you dare...tee hee

If I have time to pick my numbers I do, if not I get quick picks.
visiondude

light on my feet
United States
Member #356
May 20, 2002
2,744 Posts
Offline

Jul 9, 2010, 2:22 pm

Quote: Originally posted by rdgrnr on Jul 9, 2010
Couldn't the whole Quick Pick / Player Pick (System) controversy be solved with statistics?

According to the latest back and forth:

Quick Picks account for 70% of the tickets sold and 70% of the winning tickets.

Player Picks account for 30% of the tickets sold and 30% of the winning tickets.

That outcome would be and is in accordance with the odds.

My question then is this:

If one method of play is better, wouldn't it's winning percentage fare better than it's sales percentage?

For instance, if Player Picks are better, shouldn't they garner maybe 35 to 40% of the winners while only accounting for 30% of the sales?

If neither method beats the odds of winning percentage vs. sales percentage, how is one better than the other?

As it stands now, if the percentages are correct, Player Picks win at the same dumb luck rate as Quick Picks

It would seem to me that in order to have a definitive answer, one would have to find a little edge, a little bulge in the percentage of wins vs. sales on a consistent basis to prove the superiority of one style of play over the other.

Or am I nuts?

"As it stands now, if the percentages are correct, Player Picks win at the same dumb luck rate as Quick Picks"

bingo # 235

that is a an accurate statement based on a factual / statistical ongoing basis.

it's a fate driven result. nothing more, and nothing less.

the simple lottery litmus test as to whether "systems" work is just what i stated factually in the other thread......that if systems actually did work, then even as many system players as there are at LP, that would drive those statistics way higher.

either a system works, or it doesn't.

a true "system" that did work would be repeatable

any 'system' that worked once, is no more viable than a quick pick on the validity scale of things

the fact that 10years of LP, and not one "system win", vs the systems efforts in here, proves your above yellow highlighted fact

"i am .........."meant to"

P.S., that RJoH is a stand up guy. thanks, vision

until further notice, it's france everyday
Delta Draw

United States
Member #81,841
October 31, 2009
856 Posts
Offline

Jul 9, 2010, 3:00 pm

Oh poop! I cannot see Vision-dud's posts anymore.

DD
joker17

United States
Member #75,356
June 1, 2009
5,345 Posts
Offline

Jul 9, 2010, 3:00 pm

Quote: Originally posted by sully16 on Jul 9, 2010
Good thread ridge, I believe it's personal choice.

I go both ways, and don't you dare...tee hee

If I have time to pick my numbers I do, if not I get quick picks.

Hey Ridge, she rubs the betslips to make them hot, and now she says.......

Nevermind, I'll let you handle this one....
sully16

25

Ringleader

Michigan
United States
Member #81,738
October 28, 2009
128,266 Posts
Online

Jul 9, 2010, 3:28 pm

Quote: Originally posted by joker17 on Jul 9, 2010
Hey Ridge, she rubs the betslips to make them hot, and now she says.......

Nevermind, I'll let you handle this one....

I was talking about clog dancing, sometimes I go left sometimes I go right.
Coin Toss

Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
Member #30,469
January 17, 2006
11,788 Posts
Offline

Jul 9, 2010, 4:40 pm

Quote: Originally posted by sully16 on Jul 9, 2010
Good thread ridge, I believe it's personal choice.

I go both ways, and don't you dare...tee hee

If I have time to pick my numbers I do, if not I get quick picks.

We need the "zipit" emotie!

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
flat creek*kid

United States
Member #56,860
December 6, 2007
1,826 Posts
Offline

Jul 9, 2010, 7:28 pm

I wonder if alot of people get the exact quick pick, all those states that play powerball could indeed get duplicate tickets. i like quick picks i personally believe (because it happened to me) that tennessee let me win off of a quick pick because it made their payout look decent. o i forgot it is random and just plain luck.
jarasan

Harbinger

Maryland
United States
Member #44,102
July 30, 2006
6,607 Posts
Offline

Jul 9, 2010, 8:00 pm

Quote: Originally posted by rdgrnr on Jul 9, 2010
Couldn't the whole Quick Pick / Player Pick (System) controversy be solved with statistics?

According to the latest back and forth:

Quick Picks account for 70% of the tickets sold and 70% of the winning tickets.

Player Picks account for 30% of the tickets sold and 30% of the winning tickets.

That outcome would be and is in accordance with the odds.

My question then is this:

If one method of play is better, wouldn't it's winning percentage fare better than it's sales percentage?

For instance, if Player Picks are better, shouldn't they garner maybe 35 to 40% of the winners while only accounting for 30% of the sales?

If neither method beats the odds of winning percentage vs. sales percentage, how is one better than the other?

As it stands now, if the percentages are correct, Player Picks win at the same dumb luck rate as Quick Picks

It would seem to me that in order to have a definitive answer, one would have to find a little edge, a little bulge in the percentage of wins vs. sales on a consistent basis to prove the superiority of one style of play over the other.

Or am I nuts?

There is probably a tighter ratio of QP ticket to QP player than PP ticket to PP player. We need to know those ratios to get that garner. With QP's you can't establish a baseline for comparison efficiently with the time it would take to do such a thing. That is why the jackpot challenges are so good for PP'ing. QP's are just the opposite, no thought process in selection, pure randomness, not a "per se" method other than picking to play QP's. When I play the dang numbers I play to win and beat the odds, if you select 3 numbers correctly out of 5 you have beat 1 / 306 odds in Mega, 4 of 5, 1 / 15,300+. w/ the mega ball over 1 / 600,000. And with a short wheel you can win significantly, you can never do this with QP's.

Bottom line is this: it doesn't help improve your play to compare apples and oranges.

The jackpot challenges help improve your play and is fully documented and tracked. Has anybody just used RNG's to play the challenges?

FJB
badboy00z

CA
United States
Member #84,263
December 26, 2009
410 Posts
Offline

Jul 9, 2010, 8:48 pm

What about people who pick their own numbers but randomly without premediatating what they will pick?
joker17

United States
Member #75,356
June 1, 2009
5,345 Posts
Offline

Jul 9, 2010, 9:01 pm

Quote: Originally posted by badboy00z on Jul 9, 2010
What about people who pick their own numbers but randomly without premediatating what they will pick?

That's called a Quick Person. They use their own RND built within their brains to pick numbers without any thought. Of course there will always be thought in the process.

I won 720 bucks last year in the Florida Fantasy Five, by doing exactly that sort of thing. It was a fluke. I went to the Publix supermarket to get provisions, and I always play at least a buck or two on the p-3 and the Fantasy Five. I merely picked out numbers and got 4 out of 5. Luckily for me, No one had all 5 numbers, so the JP rolldown to second tier prize holders was 720 bucks.

I guess you can call it a "Partial QP"...
jarasan

Harbinger

Maryland
United States
Member #44,102
July 30, 2006
6,607 Posts
Offline

Jul 9, 2010, 9:07 pm

Quote: Originally posted by visiondude on Jul 9, 2010
"As it stands now, if the percentages are correct, Player Picks win at the same dumb luck rate as Quick Picks"

bingo # 235

that is a an accurate statement based on a factual / statistical ongoing basis.

it's a fate driven result. nothing more, and nothing less.

the simple lottery litmus test as to whether "systems" work is just what i stated factually in the other thread......that if systems actually did work, then even as many system players as there are at LP, that would drive those statistics way higher.

either a system works, or it doesn't.

a true "system" that did work would be repeatable

any 'system' that worked once, is no more viable than a quick pick on the validity scale of things

the fact that 10years of LP, and not one "system win", vs the systems efforts in here, proves your above yellow highlighted fact

What does repeatable mean? I believe repeatable means consistently in the ball park w/ jp games anything better than 2 of 5 3 of 5 3 of 6 4 of 6. Hitting like that regularly using 8 to 12 number wheels gets you 4 of 5 5 of 6 every couple of months when you get next to the draw in numbers correct. The objective is getting the 5 of 5 6 of 6 as a surprise. I would be happy with one, reset the machine.

Repeatable cannot mean jackpot jackpot jackpot jackpot. Never going to happen. Not QP same place or PP from the same person.

Now the facts are these, people have hit 5 of 5 6 of 6 on LPost, Litebets I think just got a 5 of 5! And Winlaotta got 5 0f 5 on the Mega challenge, there are more this year alone. I've gotten a couple of 4 of 5 this year on record, 5 of 6 etc.

Here is an example of prior test LOOK closely. Before I started using the wheels.

FJB

New Topic New Poll

Subscribe to this topic

Statistically Speaking - QP's and PP'sPrev TopicNext Topic

Statistically Speaking - QP's and PP'sPrev Topic Next Topic