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Statistically Speaking - QP's and PP's

Topic closed. 1161 replies. Last post 6 years ago by Todd.

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JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
The Quantum Master
West Concord, MN
United States
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December 7, 2001
3675 Posts
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Posted: July 9, 2010, 9:54 pm - IP Logged

Couldn't the whole Quick Pick / Player Pick (System) controversy be solved with statistics?

 

According to the latest back and forth:

Quick Picks account for 70% of the tickets sold and 70% of the winning tickets.

Player Picks account for 30% of the tickets sold and 30% of the winning tickets.

That outcome would be and is in accordance with the odds.

 

My question then is this:

If one method of play is better, wouldn't it's winning percentage fare better than it's sales percentage?

For instance, if Player Picks are better, shouldn't they garner maybe 35 to 40% of the winners while only accounting for 30% of the sales?

 

If neither method  beats the odds of winning percentage vs. sales percentage, how is one better than the other? 

As it stands now, if the percentages are correct, Player Picks win at the same dumb luck rate as Quick Picks

 

It would seem to me that in order to have a definitive answer, one would have to find a little edge, a little bulge in the percentage of wins vs. sales on a consistent basis to prove the superiority of one style of play over the other.

 

Or am I nuts?

Statistics is founded in Mathematics and Mathematically Speaking this has been covered before.

Quick Picks can't match the power of Self Picks

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    jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
    Harbinger
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    Posted: July 9, 2010, 10:33 pm - IP Logged

    Statistics is founded in Mathematics and Mathematically Speaking this has been covered before.

    Quick Picks can't match the power of Self Picks

    Thank You Jade!  Proportionality is the key (ratio kinda the same),  I'd forgotten this exquisite derivation.

    Thumbs Up

    Those tix I posted  demonstrate the results.


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      Posted: July 9, 2010, 10:43 pm - IP Logged

        MILLION22Q$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
        New Member
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        June 12, 2010
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        Posted: July 9, 2010, 11:13 pm - IP Logged
        To each his own.... i think the average player chooses q picks because they have no knowledge of wheels or systems. Lots of sales of q picks might include pools where the group purchases quick picks.
        I've been in pool where 10 people pitched in 10 bucks for 100 q picks when i asked the group if they wanted to create a wheel for the next pot they were like Huh! what are you talking about... I explained how a wheel works and they chose q picks over any wheeling attempt every time i suggested it.. They strongly believed that 100 quick picks would yield a wider dispersement of numbers.
         
        If more people actually chose their numbers rather than buy Q picks then that group would win more but in the real world system players are few and far between the average ticket purchaser.
        Then there is the third group of players who only purchase the same picks every time.... and the mom and pop players that choose numbers based on family numbers birthdays and such this group wins sometimes and will brag about how they chose their picks. Some people might call this a system but in actually it's not... it's just luck.

        You are absolutely right about this.  I used to play in a pool, and they refused to wheel the numbers, instead insisted on OP's ONLY.... and the funny thing was... out the 10 of us who played 50 - 60 tickets total.... a large number of the time we only 4  numbers out of the bunch and wound up with $0 dollars.... I think the most we ever hit was $10... can you believe it.  So many of them just gave it up and decided to play on their own... LOLOLO!!!

        There is a system.  Too many numbers in all the games continuously repeat themselves.... consistently repeat themselves.  And I gotta tell ya... one day soon I am going POP them ALL REALLY BIG!!!!   Thanks! And good luck to you all...

        Million22Q$  Lurking

        Visualize and then Materialize... Mega Millions Millions & MILLIONS 4 ME $$$$ 

        God is space...........Demonstrated! 

        The light from just one candle can dispel a sea of darkness so...let there be LIGHT!!!  Sun Smiley

          MILLION22Q$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
          New Member
          raleigh, north carolina
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          Posted: July 9, 2010, 11:16 pm - IP Logged

          Wheeling is the best approach I know for the big games. It works in the small ones too. Systematic play is not as easy as QP’s and few consider what they can do to improve their chances to win at a game. They just throw money at it and hope.

          DD

           

            We may never know the success rate of systematic play. The small sample here at the predictions page may not be sufficient to use it as an overall measuring stick. Some members do not post what they put into play. I am one of them.

          You are absolutely correct.  there is a system and the numbers tend to repeat themselves consistently.... GOOD LUCK to us ALL!!!

          Visualize and then Materialize... Mega Millions Millions & MILLIONS 4 ME $$$$ 

          God is space...........Demonstrated! 

          The light from just one candle can dispel a sea of darkness so...let there be LIGHT!!!  Sun Smiley

            rdgrnr's avatar - walt
            Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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            Posted: July 10, 2010, 12:18 am - IP Logged

            Statistics is founded in Mathematics and Mathematically Speaking this has been covered before.

            Quick Picks can't match the power of Self Picks

            I read the entire thread you linked and granted I'm not very smart but I didn't see an answer to my question.

            I don't have a dog in this fight; I play and will play numbers from any and every source without preference. I couldn't care less what methods others use to play a game. I honestly don't care which method could be proven superior because I play the way I wanna play because I enjoy it. Lottery is a hobby for me, not a job.  I would like to see a definitive answer on this question though just to satisfy my curiosity. And because an answer (your answer) is definitive to you doesn't make it that to me. 

            I'd just like an answer to this question because my mind understands common sense better than esoteric mathematical equations:

            Do Player Pick tickets produce more winners/jackpots as a percentage of tickets sold compared to Quick Picks on the same basis? If so, do they do it consistently?

            I don't know how you could come up with anything conclusive without knowing and applying that information.

            Or am I nuts? 


                                                         
                                 
                                                     

             

             

             

             

                                                                                                               

            "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                        --Edmund Burke

             

             


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              Posted: July 10, 2010, 12:27 am - IP Logged

              Statistics is founded in Mathematics and Mathematically Speaking this has been covered before.

              Quick Picks can't match the power of Self Picks

              Wow!

              I sure enjoyed that! Thank you very much. It's nice to know what action produces the best results.

               

               Not that I am a math wiz, but I do love a good proportion!

              I guess if I was still convinced that QP’s were the best way to go I would say,…

              it puts the lotion on the skin or it gets the hose again”.

              DD

                ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
                Idaho
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                Posted: July 10, 2010, 12:32 am - IP Logged

                Good thread ridge, I believe it's personal choice.

                I go both ways, and don't you dare...tee hee

                If I have time to pick my numbers I do, if not I get quick picks.

                That's how it tends to be for me. That or I'm too tired and I don't want to figure out numbers to play.

                "No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."

                  rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                  Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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                  Posted: July 10, 2010, 12:42 am - IP Logged

                  Good thread ridge, I believe it's personal choice.

                  I go both ways, and don't you dare...tee hee

                  If I have time to pick my numbers I do, if not I get quick picks.

                  LOL I think we speak each other's unspoken language, sully - fluently. Naughty


                                                               
                                       
                                                           

                   

                   

                   

                   

                                                                                                                     

                  "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                              --Edmund Burke

                   

                   

                    ArtVandalay's avatar - 3237774708 dd3351ee2c_m.jpg
                    Arizona
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                    Posted: July 10, 2010, 6:41 am - IP Logged

                    I seldom use Quick Picks anymore.  I developed a system back in early 2008 which I still use today.  Basically, what my system does is divide the lottery draws into two sets.  One set is of the draws that fall into a certain pattern where Ball 1 falls into certain range, Ball 2 falls into a certain range, etc. and even the sum of all Balls falls into a certain range.  The other set is of the draws that don't fall into this pattern.  I try to size each set to about 50%.  The first set I call normal draws, and the second set I call anomalies or aberations.  Then I also rate the Balls or Numbers from Hot to Cold and choose only "Warm" for my draws.

                    Basically what it comes down to is this.  I'm aiming for a microscopic bullseye on a gigantic target.  And like with any system, I have my hits and misses.  I've never won the jackpot, but I have come close a few times.  On the Arizona Pick 5, I've gotten 4 out of 5 several times, each time winning $500.00.  And on the Arizona Pick 6, once I got 5 out of 6 which won me $2,000.00.  I guess that the fact that I have come so close a few times gives me encouragement to keep trying.

                    What I've found out about Quick Picks is this.  I get many more anomilies or aberations than I do normal draws.  And it's gotten to the point that I really don't trust Quick Picks anymore.  Sometimes I will pick a few QP's in the middle or at the end of the numbers that I pick.  Which brings me to another point.

                    Do you wonder if the order in which your play slips are played makes any difference?  If I'm drawing QP's along with my own numbers, then, yes, I do.  But then I feel somewhat idiotic when asking the sales clerk to enter my playslips a certain way, and then if they don't enter them a certain way, which upsets me, then I get kinda upset, which makes me feel even more idiotic.  Usually what I do is hold back a play slip of QP's to be drawn at the end of my "run" which I hand to the sales clerk after they've run the others, saying, "Oh, and could you run these, too?"  I usually have a wry smile on my face when I do this which puzzles the sales clerk.

                    Money can't buy you happiness, but I sure could afford the misery that it brings! Wink

                      jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
                      Harbinger
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                      Posted: July 10, 2010, 8:10 am - IP Logged

                      I read the entire thread you linked and granted I'm not very smart but I didn't see an answer to my question.

                      I don't have a dog in this fight; I play and will play numbers from any and every source without preference. I couldn't care less what methods others use to play a game. I honestly don't care which method could be proven superior because I play the way I wanna play because I enjoy it. Lottery is a hobby for me, not a job.  I would like to see a definitive answer on this question though just to satisfy my curiosity. And because an answer (your answer) is definitive to you doesn't make it that to me. 

                      I'd just like an answer to this question because my mind understands common sense better than esoteric mathematical equations:

                      Do Player Pick tickets produce more winners/jackpots as a percentage of tickets sold compared to Quick Picks on the same basis? If so, do they do it consistently?

                      I don't know how you could come up with anything conclusive without knowing and applying that information.

                      Or am I nuts? 

                      Self deprecating again Ridge?  It says 1 to 4,   1 self pick has the efficacy of 4 QP's,  in practice I think it is actually higher.  Just me.  Thread is good.  Were you a justice?

                        rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
                        Texas
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                        Posted: July 10, 2010, 8:48 am - IP Logged

                        There is probably a tighter ratio of QP ticket to QP player than PP ticket to PP player.  We need to know those ratios to get that garner.  With QP's you can't establish a baseline for comparison efficiently with the time it would take to do such a thing.   That is why the jackpot challenges are so good for PP'ing.  QP's are just the opposite,  no thought process in selection,  pure randomness,  not a "per se" method other than picking to play QP's.  When I play the dang numbers I play to win and beat the odds,  if you  select 3 numbers correctly out of 5 you have beat 1 / 306 odds in Mega, 4 of 5,  1 / 15,300+. w/ the mega ball over 1 / 600,000.  And with a short wheel you can win significantly,  you can never do this with QP's. 

                        Bottom line is this:  it doesn't help improve your play to compare apples and oranges.

                        The jackpot challenges help improve your play and is fully documented and tracked.  Has anybody just used RNG's to play the challenges?

                        I play the challenges, and for the challenges and my own play I used to play certain numbers based on frequency and positional frequency. Well, that just never won much money so this year I have playing random numbers. I have pennies that I numbered and I just pull them at random, and occasionally I'll play a QP also. I also will use LP's RNG once in a while. And I sometimes just pick numbers by looking at the list of past winning numbers and playing a mix of hot, ave, and cold numbers. So, I use different methods to pick my numbers. It hasn't made much difference. I won a few bucks on a 1+1 on PB on a QP, and I've won a few bucks on the other jackpot games with my own picks. I don't think it make that much difference. The main reason I don't play QP's all the time is I get my entertainment picking my numbers, and with QP's I don't want any really weird combinations. Even when I use LP's RNG, I can pick the combos I want to play.

                        For those who believe that the lotteries sell the same combo more than once on QP's, of course that can happen. The same thing can happen just using LP's RNG also. It's RANDOM.

                        CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

                        A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

                          truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
                          Michigan
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                          September 24, 2005
                          1583 Posts
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                          Posted: July 10, 2010, 8:56 am - IP Logged

                          Couldn't the whole Quick Pick / Player Pick (System) controversy be solved with statistics?

                          According to the latest back and forth:

                          Quick Picks account for 70% of the tickets sold and 70% of the winning tickets.

                          Player Picks account for 30% of the tickets sold and 30% of the winning tickets.

                          That outcome would be and is in accordance with the odds.

                          My question then is this:

                          If one method of play is better, wouldn't it's winning percentage fare better than it's sales percentage?

                          For instance, if Player Picks are better, shouldn't they garner maybe 35 to 40% of the winners while only accounting for 30% of the sales?

                          If neither method  beats the odds of winning percentage vs. sales percentage, how is one better than the other? 

                          As it stands now, if the percentages are correct, Player Picks win at the same dumb luck rate as Quick Picks

                          It would seem to me that in order to have a definitive answer, one would have to find a little edge, a little bulge in the percentage of wins vs. sales on a consistent basis to prove the superiority of one style of play over the other.

                          Or am I nuts?

                           

                          I read the entire thread you linked and granted I'm not very smart but I didn't see an answer to my question.

                          I don't have a dog in this fight; I play and will play numbers from any and every source without preference. I couldn't care less what methods others use to play a game. I honestly don't care which method could be proven superior because I play the way I wanna play because I enjoy it. Lottery is a hobby for me, not a job.  I would like to see a definitive answer on this question though just to satisfy my curiosity. And because an answer (your answer) is definitive to you doesn't make it that to me. 

                          I'd just like an answer to this question because my mind understands common sense better than esoteric mathematical equations:

                          Do Player Pick tickets produce more winners/jackpots as a percentage of tickets sold compared to Quick Picks on the same basis? If so, do they do it consistently?

                          I don't know how you could come up with anything conclusive without knowing and applying that information.

                           

                          Or am I nuts? 

                           
                           
                          rdgrnr,
                          Twice.  You've posted twice and I fully understand your frustration at getting a definitive answer to your question.  People seem to be doing the two-step and sound like practiced politicians and totally ignoring your need for knowledge. 

                          Therefore I will answer your question which I took the liberty of highlighting in red (shown at the very end of both of your posts).

                           
                          The answer, although it has nothing to do with the lottery, is yes, you are!
                             
                           
                            ROFLNuts ROFL

                            rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                            Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
                            United States
                            Member #73904
                            April 28, 2009
                            14903 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: July 10, 2010, 9:27 am - IP Logged

                            Self deprecating again Ridge?  It says 1 to 4,   1 self pick has the efficacy of 4 QP's,  in practice I think it is actually higher.  Just me.  Thread is good.  Were you a justice?

                            Self deprecating again? I'm afraid I'm not smart enough to understand exactly what that means but I think I stopped doing it when I got married.

                            So your answer to my question is: "It says 1 to 4,  1 self pick has the efficacy of 4 QP's." Isn't that more of a conclusion than an answer to my question?

                            And no, I've never been a justice. My only experience in that realm has been in the evasion process when I found it conducive to the maintenance of liberty.


                                                                         
                                                 
                                                                     

                             

                             

                             

                             

                                                                                                                               

                            "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                                        --Edmund Burke

                             

                             

                              rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                              Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
                              United States
                              Member #73904
                              April 28, 2009
                              14903 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: July 10, 2010, 9:30 am - IP Logged

                              Couldn't the whole Quick Pick / Player Pick (System) controversy be solved with statistics?

                              According to the latest back and forth:

                              Quick Picks account for 70% of the tickets sold and 70% of the winning tickets.

                              Player Picks account for 30% of the tickets sold and 30% of the winning tickets.

                              That outcome would be and is in accordance with the odds.

                              My question then is this:

                              If one method of play is better, wouldn't it's winning percentage fare better than it's sales percentage?

                              For instance, if Player Picks are better, shouldn't they garner maybe 35 to 40% of the winners while only accounting for 30% of the sales?

                              If neither method  beats the odds of winning percentage vs. sales percentage, how is one better than the other? 

                              As it stands now, if the percentages are correct, Player Picks win at the same dumb luck rate as Quick Picks

                              It would seem to me that in order to have a definitive answer, one would have to find a little edge, a little bulge in the percentage of wins vs. sales on a consistent basis to prove the superiority of one style of play over the other.

                              Or am I nuts?

                               

                              I read the entire thread you linked and granted I'm not very smart but I didn't see an answer to my question.

                              I don't have a dog in this fight; I play and will play numbers from any and every source without preference. I couldn't care less what methods others use to play a game. I honestly don't care which method could be proven superior because I play the way I wanna play because I enjoy it. Lottery is a hobby for me, not a job.  I would like to see a definitive answer on this question though just to satisfy my curiosity. And because an answer (your answer) is definitive to you doesn't make it that to me. 

                              I'd just like an answer to this question because my mind understands common sense better than esoteric mathematical equations:

                              Do Player Pick tickets produce more winners/jackpots as a percentage of tickets sold compared to Quick Picks on the same basis? If so, do they do it consistently?

                              I don't know how you could come up with anything conclusive without knowing and applying that information.

                               

                              Or am I nuts? 

                               
                               
                              rdgrnr,
                              Twice.  You've posted twice and I fully understand your frustration at getting a definitive answer to your question.  People seem to be doing the two-step and sound like practiced politicians and totally ignoring your need for knowledge. 

                              Therefore I will answer your question which I took the liberty of highlighting in red (shown at the very end of both of your posts).

                               
                              The answer, although it has nothing to do with the lottery, is yes, you are!
                                 
                               
                                ROFLNuts ROFL

                              Thanks tc,

                              I've had a feeling that was the case for years now.


                                                                           
                                                   
                                                                       

                               

                               

                               

                               

                                                                                                                                 

                              "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                                          --Edmund Burke

                               

                               

                                 
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