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What is a lottery system? What distinguishes a lottery system from guesses, dreams and quick picks?

Topic closed. 918 replies. Last post 6 years ago by mayhem.

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Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
Indiana
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Posted: March 30, 2011, 1:36 pm - IP Logged

Thanks for your reply. I don't necessarily mean that I want the system to target  3/5 and 4/5, but rather that I would like to see it target the JP, but when it misses the JP it was accurate enough to hit 3 or 4 of the 5 or 4 or 5 of the 6 numbers correctly and consistently. However I do see what you're saying.

To give you an example:

Suppose tonight's Lotto numbers were: 1 2 10 11 12 22

A system might consider a set like this to be unlikely and in the process, possibly not consider some sets that would have otherwise matched 3/6, 4/6, or 5/6. Or it could be that the system might find that other sets are more likely and therefore generates those sets.

Stack47 gave a good example. If someone is using a system, and just because that person isn't consistently hitting the lower prizes, that doesn't mean the system isn't doing what's intended: choose sets that are more likely to match 6/6.

Gonna win.Big Smile

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    Thread Starter

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    Posted: March 30, 2011, 1:43 pm - IP Logged

    This started out as a pretty good thread until the ego's became invested.

    Why does anyone have to show any proof for something in an internet forum? Better yet, why does anyone have to prove anything to YOU or anyone else? Is there something to gain or some particular benefit by having visionsdude or jimmy4164 or some other random unknown and meaningless member of a forum believe what someone says on an internet forum?

    Instead of this thread being a serious lottery discussion, it's more of a battle of egos and 'prove it'. Seems to me that those who are demanding 'proof' are more interested in winning a game of 'gotcha' rather than winning a lottery.

    Amerikan:  It's still a good thread.  All you have to do is read the posts where there's something offered to actually devote thought to and skip the ones that don't.

    Still enough here to keep me reading and skipping.

      ameriken's avatar - 33ojew2
      Denver, Co
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      Posted: March 30, 2011, 1:46 pm - IP Logged

      To give you an example:

      Suppose tonight's Lotto numbers were: 1 2 10 11 12 22

      A system might consider a set like this to be unlikely and in the process, possibly not consider some sets that would have otherwise matched 3/6, 4/6, or 5/6. Or it could be that the system might find that other sets are more likely and therefore generates those sets.

      Stack47 gave a good example. If someone is using a system, and just because that person isn't consistently hitting the lower prizes, that doesn't mean the system isn't doing what's intended: choose sets that are more likely to match 6/6.

      I see what you're saying. However, when someone invests in a system that advertises that it will increase ones odds of winning the lottery, and at the end of the day they miss the jackpot and miss other 3/6, 4/6, and 5/6 wins, then how do you know if it's a good system or not?

      Which goes back to the original question, what distinguishes a lottery system from guesses, dreams, and quickpicks?

      If one buys $100 on a draw in quick picks, dream picks, and guesses, and $100 on a draw with tickets selected from a system designed to win, and at the end of the day ends up losing $90 from each of the $100 bets, then how would one know if it's a good system or not and if it's any better than the dreams, quick picks and guesses?

        ameriken's avatar - 33ojew2
        Denver, Co
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        Posted: March 30, 2011, 1:50 pm - IP Logged

        Amerikan:  It's still a good thread.  All you have to do is read the posts where there's something offered to actually devote thought to and skip the ones that don't.

        Still enough here to keep me reading and skipping.

        Same here. I don't know why, but it seems like it's the mathematics forum where people tend to get so personal. Go figure. Other than that, it's good reading and a great topic.


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          Posted: March 30, 2011, 1:58 pm - IP Logged

          " If I posted my combos and showed the world that it really does work then everyone would believe"....

          "if i did".......the same old trumped up disclaimer that i wish i had a dollar for every time i have heard it just at LP from the i refuse to's.

          it would just about bankroll my 1QP's from here on out.

          you imply to the people in here that you somehow possess the "knowledge" or "skill" to manipulate the lottery,  when the real truth about you is the only thing you are manipulating is the truth of what you can't do.

          the premise is simple......if you really had something,  you could show case it toot suite,  and you could do it without anyone finding out how your system works.    which is current your feighned "excuse".

          the other part of this revelation that you "can't",  is that you already have let enough of the cat out of the bag about how you go about things in your personal pursuit in other threads around here,  so it's not like it's some super secret anyway.

          whether you have or haven't isn't an issue.   the fact that you won't tells the world you can't.

          tell us RL,   what's so "secretive" about picking one game and attaching numbers to it pre draw?

          you are right,  if you posted your numbers everyone WOULD believe. 

          but alas,  RL doesn't want to be "the one".     i wonder why that is?

          what,  has this now become a selfish matter,  that you are unwilling to share a pari-mutuel draw?

          laughing

          "You don't know what you ask"..... 

          oh but i do,  and unfortunately for you,  you know "that i know"

          You are "RIGHT ON" with this one, VISIONDUDE!

          Wink

            JAP69's avatar - alas
            South Carolina
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            Posted: March 30, 2011, 2:03 pm - IP Logged

            The way I look at a lottery system is where you search for when a specified event(s) may reoccur from researching past history of the game.

            I use purchased lottery software so there is no math involved.

            Hit and skips are my focus on research.

            Oo'Ka

              Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
              Indiana
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              Posted: March 30, 2011, 2:30 pm - IP Logged

              I see what you're saying. However, when someone invests in a system that advertises that it will increase ones odds of winning the lottery, and at the end of the day they miss the jackpot and miss other 3/6, 4/6, and 5/6 wins, then how do you know if it's a good system or not?

              Which goes back to the original question, what distinguishes a lottery system from guesses, dreams, and quickpicks?

              If one buys $100 on a draw in quick picks, dream picks, and guesses, and $100 on a draw with tickets selected from a system designed to win, and at the end of the day ends up losing $90 from each of the $100 bets, then how would one know if it's a good system or not and if it's any better than the dreams, quick picks and guesses?

              You go by statistics. If a set of numbers come out that are a rare occurrence, you could very well just leave your system unchanged. It just depends on what the numbers were and why your system didn't tolerate that set of numbers. You make corrective changes when statistics no longer support what your system looks for in a given percentage of drawings. If your system is statistically correct 90% of the time, you might just want to leave it unchanged even after an off day.

              That's where discretion comes in. Some people might want their system to be statistically correct 99% of the time and be more tolerant, whereas someone else might use aggressive parameters and only care if it's statistically correct 25% of the time, knowing that when their system is correct they are a lot more likely to win the top prize. Realizing your system will have its off days is important because you don't want to make a change to something that was working perfectly fine.

              As far as playing $100 and losing $90, my advice is just to play steady. Only play what you can afford, whether it be with quick picks or system picks.

              Gonna win.Big Smile

                ameriken's avatar - 33ojew2
                Denver, Co
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                Posted: March 30, 2011, 2:59 pm - IP Logged

                You go by statistics. If a set of numbers come out that are a rare occurrence, you could very well just leave your system unchanged. It just depends on what the numbers were and why your system didn't tolerate that set of numbers. You make corrective changes when statistics no longer support what your system looks for in a given percentage of drawings. If your system is statistically correct 90% of the time, you might just want to leave it unchanged even after an off day.

                That's where discretion comes in. Some people might want their system to be statistically correct 99% of the time and be more tolerant, whereas someone else might use aggressive parameters and only care if it's statistically correct 25% of the time, knowing that when their system is correct they are a lot more likely to win the top prize. Realizing your system will have its off days is important because you don't want to make a change to something that was working perfectly fine.

                As far as playing $100 and losing $90, my advice is just to play steady. Only play what you can afford, whether it be with quick picks or system picks.

                Hmm, interesting thoughts Guru. I'm still a newbie at this and trying to find my way around. What you say makes some sense. Call it beginniners luck or a series of good choices, back in January I used my software to come up with a set of numbers I though were statistically good. They missed, and in fact were way off. However, I felt the numbers were still statisically good for the next draw so I ran them again and hit my first 4/5 and a couple of 3/5's. Needless to say an encouraging win. However, since then I haven't been able to reproduce those results, mainly because I've been off trying way to many methods/systems. Lots to think about going forward. I appreciate your input.

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
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                  Posted: March 30, 2011, 3:00 pm - IP Logged

                  I see what you're saying. However, when someone invests in a system that advertises that it will increase ones odds of winning the lottery, and at the end of the day they miss the jackpot and miss other 3/6, 4/6, and 5/6 wins, then how do you know if it's a good system or not?

                  Which goes back to the original question, what distinguishes a lottery system from guesses, dreams, and quickpicks?

                  If one buys $100 on a draw in quick picks, dream picks, and guesses, and $100 on a draw with tickets selected from a system designed to win, and at the end of the day ends up losing $90 from each of the $100 bets, then how would one know if it's a good system or not and if it's any better than the dreams, quick picks and guesses?

                  When you use a system sold by a vendor all you know about it is what its creator shares with you, for all you know it could be nothing more than a RNG generating combinations that fit a particular matrix.  Chances are it will generate different sets of combinations every times you use it.  Without knowing the logic it use to pick combinations you are at the mercy of the advertisements that convinced you to invest in it.

                  Players who create their own systems know the logic used to make the predictions and can make changes as they review the results.  They can change the logic, the parameters and size of the number pool until they get the results they want and they have a realistic idea about the amounts they need to spend for their system to have a chance to work.

                  Regardless of how systems work, there's no proof that quick picks results are any better, according to most official lottery websites 70% of of players buy QPs and 70% of winners are QPs which means the 30% of players picking their own numbers are getting 30% of the winners.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    ameriken's avatar - 33ojew2
                    Denver, Co
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                    Posted: March 30, 2011, 3:11 pm - IP Logged

                    When you use a system sold by a vendor all you know about it is what its creator shares with you, for all you know it could be nothing more than a RNG generating combinations that fit a particular matrix.  Chances are it will generate different sets of combinations every times you use it.  Without knowing the logic it use to pick combinations you are at the mercy of the advertisements that convinced you to invest in it.

                    Players who create their own systems know the logic used to make the predictions and can make changes as they review the results.  They can change the logic, the parameters and size of the number pool until they get the results they want and they have a realistic idea about the amounts they need to spend for their system to have a chance to work.

                    Regardless of how systems work, there's no proof that quick picks results are any better, according to most official lottery websites 70% of of players buy QPs and 70% of winners are QPs which means the 30% of players picking their own numbers are getting 30% of the winners.

                    That's the problem with some software I've seen. You're at the mercy of the creator's methods. I prefer software that allows me the options to filter it by my own choices and generate my own numbers based on my own parameters, and I've only used one software, which allows me to do just that. It also has it's own method of picking numbers and it does supply the logic behind it methods, and it does work if your inputs are correct. Plus, I've done quite a bit of pencil and papering.

                    In any case, I'm at the point now of still learning how to read the numbers and history and come up with a way to choose combinations. In fact, I've overall done such a lousy job of it that I often wonder if I'd just be better off buying those QPs.


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                      Posted: March 30, 2011, 3:22 pm - IP Logged

                      That's the problem with some software I've seen. You're at the mercy of the creator's methods. I prefer software that allows me the options to filter it by my own choices and generate my own numbers based on my own parameters, and I've only used one software, which allows me to do just that. It also has it's own method of picking numbers and it does supply the logic behind it methods, and it does work if your inputs are correct. Plus, I've done quite a bit of pencil and papering.

                      In any case, I'm at the point now of still learning how to read the numbers and history and come up with a way to choose combinations. In fact, I've overall done such a lousy job of it that I often wonder if I'd just be better off buying those QPs.

                      "In fact, I've overall done such a lousy job of it that I often wonder if I'd just be better off buying those QPs."

                      Sounds like you might be coming to the realization that at least some of what I've been saying is true.  Most likely you wouldn't be any better off money-wise with QPs, but you might get more sleep! Smile

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                        Posted: March 30, 2011, 3:27 pm - IP Logged

                        You are "RIGHT ON" with this one, VISIONDUDE!

                        Wink

                        Jimmy

                        Let me ask you what difference it would make. Lets say that I posted the numbers for tonight and they

                        hit a 5 of 5.  What then?  What it they missed hitting even a 2 of 5, what then?  Just try it for your self

                        and try picking 5 or 6 digits to put into play for the next week or so.  Hit all the digits then you have the

                        5 of 5.  If you want to talk about filtering methods to reduce these down to 10 or 20 lines then that would

                        be another topic., don't try and mix the two.

                        I don't know how I can explain it any better so maybe you can get something from the information below. 

                         

                        last nights digits drawn = 1-2-3-4-6-9  set = 04 14 26 29 33

                        1X digit 1

                        2x digit 2

                        2x digit 3

                        2x digit 4

                        1x digit 6

                        1x digit 9

                        66 total sets for a 5 of 5.

                        playing 6 total digits #1 overall choice in matrix  = 40% of all sets

                        base digits 1-2-3 all hit and total base digits = 5 which is right on target.

                        You can calculate the odds for hitting digits 4-5-9 

                        total unfiltered sets = 66 out of 575757

                        01 24 26 34 39
                        01 24 29 34 36
                        02 14 24 36 39
                        02 14 26 34 39
                        02 14 29 34 36
                        02 16 24 34 39
                        02 19 24 34 36
                        03 14 24 26 39
                        03 14 24 29 36
                        03 14 26 29 34
                        03 16 24 29 34
                        03 19 24 26 34
                        04 12 24 36 39
                        04 12 26 34 39
                        04 12 29 34 36
                        04 13 24 26 39
                        04 13 24 29 36
                        04 13 26 29 34
                        04 14 22 36 39
                        04 14 23 26 39
                        04 14 23 29 36
                        04 14 26 29 33  5 of 5
                        04 14 26 32 39
                        04 14 29 32 36
                        04 16 22 34 39
                        04 16 23 24 39
                        04 16 23 29 34
                        04 16 24 29 33
                        04 16 24 32 39
                        04 16 29 32 34
                        04 19 22 34 36
                        04 19 23 24 36
                        04 19 23 26 34
                        04 19 24 26 33
                        04 19 24 32 36
                        04 19 26 32 34
                        04 21 24 36 39
                        04 21 26 34 39
                        04 21 29 34 36
                        04 24 26 31 39
                        04 24 29 31 36
                        04 26 29 31 34
                        06 12 24 34 39
                        06 13 24 29 34
                        06 14 22 34 39
                        06 14 23 24 39
                        06 14 23 29 34
                        06 14 24 29 33
                        06 14 24 32 39
                        06 14 29 32 34
                        06 19 23 24 34
                        06 19 24 32 34
                        06 21 24 34 39
                        06 24 29 31 34
                        09 12 24 34 36
                        09 13 24 26 34
                        09 14 22 34 36
                        09 14 23 24 36
                        09 14 23 26 34
                        09 14 24 26 33
                        09 14 24 32 36
                        09 14 26 32 34
                        09 16 23 24 34
                        09 16 24 32 34
                        09 21 24 34 36
                        09 24 26 31 34

                        Look at the data below, I only play the days I think DV will be 14 or 15 which gives me digits 1-2-3 + 4=miss

                        or digits 1-2-3-4 which leaves me with making my final selection from digits 5-6-7-8-9-0 

                        5-39
                        wHOLE UNIVERSE OF SETS
                        DV = DECIMAL VALUE
                        PERCENTS ARE ROUNDED


                        FRONT-4
                        DV  BINARY HIT   SETS  PERCENT OF DRAWS
                        00  0000    0       1  PER = 0
                        01  0001    1       5  PER = 0
                        02  0010    1    1286  PER = 0
                        03  0011    2    1711  PER = 0
                        04  0100    1    1286  PER = 0
                        05  0101    2    1711  PER = 0
                        06  0110    2   31076  PER = 5
                        07  0111    3   28704  PER = 5
                        08  1000    1    1286  PER = 0
                        09  1001    2    1711  PER = 0
                        10  1010    2   31076  PER = 5
                        11  1011    3   28704  PER = 5
                        12  1100    2   31076  PER = 5
                        13  1101    3   28704  PER = 5
                        14  1110    3  227545  PER = 40
                        15  1111    4  159875  PER = 28

                         

                        I think that everyone on LP understands this but you and vision. I just don't know how to make it any

                        clearer.

                         

                        RL

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                          Posted: March 30, 2011, 3:45 pm - IP Logged

                          That's the problem with some software I've seen. You're at the mercy of the creator's methods. I prefer software that allows me the options to filter it by my own choices and generate my own numbers based on my own parameters, and I've only used one software, which allows me to do just that. It also has it's own method of picking numbers and it does supply the logic behind it methods, and it does work if your inputs are correct. Plus, I've done quite a bit of pencil and papering.

                          In any case, I'm at the point now of still learning how to read the numbers and history and come up with a way to choose combinations. In fact, I've overall done such a lousy job of it that I often wonder if I'd just be better off buying those QPs.

                          ameriken

                          The only difference between a QP and a SP is the quality of the set.  A QP can be just as good as a SP but

                          not all QP's have as good a chance of winning as a well balnced SP.  If you look at the winning set for the

                          mega millions drawing it contains all the nessary parts that make it a very good set to play even if it was

                          a quickpick.  The problem with QP's is that many are from the bottom of the bucket meaning they don't

                          have what it takes to win in most draws.  A good line does not mean it will win but it does have a better

                          chance.  Play QP's when you need a break but do some very simple counts when you buy it and if it does

                          not meet your minimum expectations then have it cancelled and get another.  I have purchased $5.00 QP's

                          in the past that had less then 15 different numbers on the five lines.  The digit counts also put them in a

                          very bad spot for winning anything.  When playing random always look for the largest coverage of numbers.

                          It took over half a billion tickets to win the last mega million drawing  and I would bet most of them were QP's

                          Some people think that because more QP's win,  it is because they are better.  I think that when a QP hits it

                          was because it was a good set and had nothing to do with being a QP, a good set is a good set. 

                           

                          RL


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                            Posted: March 30, 2011, 3:55 pm - IP Logged

                            Jimmy

                            Let me ask you what difference it would make. Lets say that I posted the numbers for tonight and they

                            hit a 5 of 5.  What then?  What it they missed hitting even a 2 of 5, what then?  Just try it for your self

                            and try picking 5 or 6 digits to put into play for the next week or so.  Hit all the digits then you have the

                            5 of 5.  If you want to talk about filtering methods to reduce these down to 10 or 20 lines then that would

                            be another topic., don't try and mix the two.

                            I don't know how I can explain it any better so maybe you can get something from the information below. 

                             

                            last nights digits drawn = 1-2-3-4-6-9  set = 04 14 26 29 33

                            1X digit 1

                            2x digit 2

                            2x digit 3

                            2x digit 4

                            1x digit 6

                            1x digit 9

                            66 total sets for a 5 of 5.

                            playing 6 total digits #1 overall choice in matrix  = 40% of all sets

                            base digits 1-2-3 all hit and total base digits = 5 which is right on target.

                            You can calculate the odds for hitting digits 4-5-9 

                            total unfiltered sets = 66 out of 575757

                            01 24 26 34 39
                            01 24 29 34 36
                            02 14 24 36 39
                            02 14 26 34 39
                            02 14 29 34 36
                            02 16 24 34 39
                            02 19 24 34 36
                            03 14 24 26 39
                            03 14 24 29 36
                            03 14 26 29 34
                            03 16 24 29 34
                            03 19 24 26 34
                            04 12 24 36 39
                            04 12 26 34 39
                            04 12 29 34 36
                            04 13 24 26 39
                            04 13 24 29 36
                            04 13 26 29 34
                            04 14 22 36 39
                            04 14 23 26 39
                            04 14 23 29 36
                            04 14 26 29 33  5 of 5
                            04 14 26 32 39
                            04 14 29 32 36
                            04 16 22 34 39
                            04 16 23 24 39
                            04 16 23 29 34
                            04 16 24 29 33
                            04 16 24 32 39
                            04 16 29 32 34
                            04 19 22 34 36
                            04 19 23 24 36
                            04 19 23 26 34
                            04 19 24 26 33
                            04 19 24 32 36
                            04 19 26 32 34
                            04 21 24 36 39
                            04 21 26 34 39
                            04 21 29 34 36
                            04 24 26 31 39
                            04 24 29 31 36
                            04 26 29 31 34
                            06 12 24 34 39
                            06 13 24 29 34
                            06 14 22 34 39
                            06 14 23 24 39
                            06 14 23 29 34
                            06 14 24 29 33
                            06 14 24 32 39
                            06 14 29 32 34
                            06 19 23 24 34
                            06 19 24 32 34
                            06 21 24 34 39
                            06 24 29 31 34
                            09 12 24 34 36
                            09 13 24 26 34
                            09 14 22 34 36
                            09 14 23 24 36
                            09 14 23 26 34
                            09 14 24 26 33
                            09 14 24 32 36
                            09 14 26 32 34
                            09 16 23 24 34
                            09 16 24 32 34
                            09 21 24 34 36
                            09 24 26 31 34

                            Look at the data below, I only play the days I think DV will be 14 or 15 which gives me digits 1-2-3 + 4=miss

                            or digits 1-2-3-4 which leaves me with making my final selection from digits 5-6-7-8-9-0 

                            5-39
                            wHOLE UNIVERSE OF SETS
                            DV = DECIMAL VALUE
                            PERCENTS ARE ROUNDED


                            FRONT-4
                            DV  BINARY HIT   SETS  PERCENT OF DRAWS
                            00  0000    0       1  PER = 0
                            01  0001    1       5  PER = 0
                            02  0010    1    1286  PER = 0
                            03  0011    2    1711  PER = 0
                            04  0100    1    1286  PER = 0
                            05  0101    2    1711  PER = 0
                            06  0110    2   31076  PER = 5
                            07  0111    3   28704  PER = 5
                            08  1000    1    1286  PER = 0
                            09  1001    2    1711  PER = 0
                            10  1010    2   31076  PER = 5
                            11  1011    3   28704  PER = 5
                            12  1100    2   31076  PER = 5
                            13  1101    3   28704  PER = 5
                            14  1110    3  227545  PER = 40
                            15  1111    4  159875  PER = 28

                             

                            I think that everyone on LP understands this but you and vision. I just don't know how to make it any

                            clearer.

                             

                            RL

                            You must really believe everyone is stupid.

                            Rambling on about how your program, with correct settings attained through hindsight, COULD have helped you, is of no value to me, or anyone else.  You have programmed a fancy RNG which you know will fail any scientifically designed backtest, so you just keep offering up smoke screens.  And it's despicable the way you keep trying to derail the discussion by bringing up religion and God with VISIONDUDE.

                              visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
                              light on my feet
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                              Posted: March 30, 2011, 4:01 pm - IP Logged

                              (5)  this is a hard fact of life,  and one reminder guys like you are not going to like,  but it's necessary to prove my point that it's just random......that even if anyone could,  the lotteries would change it up and negate your hard work toot suite,  forcing your wishful thinking back to square one,  where you are going to have to expend even more time and effort into something that would eventually happen again, ad infirediculoustimedraininginitum

                              "even if anyone could,  the lotteries would change it up and negate your hard work" -- well, there's the thing; if the rules (terminal tie-up time, matricies, tube rotation, machine rotation, RNG used) are not kept constant, then it is not very easy to prove (or disprove) that a system WAS or WAS NOT any better than luck. The scientific method of testing a hypothesis and repeatedly and independently getting the same results cannot be used like it can in testing a matter of physics or chemistry.

                              Put another way -- if Lucy keeps moving the football, how can we say whether or not Charlie Brown is really a lousy kicker? Wink

                              with the debate being in the here and now,  and not about what the lottery officials will eventually do to insure they can't in the future,  the game is more than stable enough right now in terms of your description for "them" to demonstrate that they can manipulate the results to their benefit.

                              but will they do it pre draw? 

                              heck no, too stage shy when it comes to the meat and potatoes on the table.

                              truth is,  they can't do it now beyond spending every day in here telling themselves (and anyone who will listen) that they can.

                              out come the excuses when allowed to showcase their skills.

                              i guarantee you the lottery games RL takes aim at have been "stable enough" in terms of time, matrices and methodologies for him to demonstrate it,  but he won't.

                              besides,  if i followed RL and jimmy's rodeo correctly,  RL doesn't predecate his picks on past history anyway,  thereby negating the "in flux" arguement.

                              the stuff gets dizzying keeping up with the excuse merry-go-round

                                          "i am .........."meant to"       

                              P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                                       until further notice,  it's  france everyday

                                 
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