I look at something similar. But in order to get a clear picture of how *good* a game is, you need to look at the entire prize structure.
I evaluate a game by looking at what I call the Total Return at each prize level, not just for everything combined, which on the $10 LFL game is the same 77.97% as your Initial EV number. The difference is my Total Return does not change with sales and is fixed on the game odds, even across reorders of the game. I also look at the Percent Remaining at each level, which shows where more hits are occuring or lagging behind. Your Current EV number is kind of a combination of these two, but only on the game total.
With the new $10 LFL game, it is very top heavy, as expected. They do this by sacrificing prizes in the middle to give more to the top prize. Sure, they increase the overall game return from 75% to 78%, but in more typical play, you'll only be getting back 55% instead of 60%. The $5 game is even worse, but the $2 and $1 LFL games are only a small penalty to offer the top prize.
Lucky for Life (833) |
$10 |
Total Return |
Prizes |
Odds 1 in |
Total # of Winners |
Prizes Claimed |
Prizes Available |
Percent Remain |
77.97% |
$6,500,000 |
3,000,000 |
10 |
0 |
10 |
100.00% |
56.30% |
$20,000 |
1,500,000 |
20 |
0 |
20 |
100.00% |
56.17% |
$10,000 |
600,000 |
50 |
0 |
50 |
100.00% |
56.00% |
$5,000 |
300,000 |
100 |
0 |
100 |
100.00% |
55.83% |
$1,000 |
30,000 |
1,000 |
0 |
1,000 |
100.00% |
55.50% |
$500 |
6,667 |
4,500 |
0 |
4,500 |
100.00% |
54.76% |
$100 |
100 |
300,000 |
0 |
300,000 |
100.00% |
45.21% |
$50 |
80 |
375,000 |
0 |
375,000 |
100.00% |
39.39% |
$30 |
67 |
450,000 |
0 |
450,000 |
100.00% |
35.33% |
$20 |
14 |
2,100,000 |
0 |
2,100,000 |
100.00% |
22.41% |
$15 |
25 |
1,200,000 |
0 |
1,200,000 |
100.00% |
16.43% |
$10 |
13 |
2,400,000 |
0 |
2,400,000 |
100.00% |
7.77% |
Ticket |
17 |
1,800,000 |
0 |
1,800,000 |
100.00% |
_ |
_ |
3.476 |
8,630,680 |
_ |
_ |
_ |
In comparison to $10 LFL, the other two *normal* $10 games are much better in the middle range. You can also see, similar to your EV number, that the $1,000,000 Fortune game is kind of *hot* in that the Top prizes are lagging behind with percent remaining in the low 60% range, while the rest of the game is sold through in the 56% range. And likewise the $250M Cash Spectacular game is kind of *cold* with the top prize already sold out the the 13.5% range, while the rest of the game is at a nominal 15% remaining.
$1,000,000 Fortune (762) |
$10 |
Total Return |
Prizes |
Odds 1 in |
Total # of Winners |
Prizes Claimed |
Prizes Available |
Percent Remain |
74.63% |
$1,000,000 |
1,200,000 |
25 |
9 |
16 |
64.00% |
66.29% |
$20,000 |
600,000 |
50 |
17 |
33 |
66.00% |
65.96% |
$10,000 |
600,000 |
50 |
19 |
31 |
62.00% |
65.79% |
$5,000 |
300,000 |
100 |
36 |
64 |
64.00% |
65.63% |
$1,000 |
2,857 |
10,500 |
3,906 |
6,594 |
62.80% |
62.15% |
$500 |
1,263 |
23,750 |
10,433 |
13,317 |
56.07% |
58.23% |
$100 |
82 |
365,000 |
159,708 |
205,292 |
56.24% |
46.62% |
$50 |
100 |
300,000 |
131,325 |
168,675 |
56.23% |
41.98% |
$30 |
100 |
300,000 |
130,919 |
169,081 |
56.36% |
39.31% |
$20 |
11 |
2,700,000 |
1,178,487 |
1,521,513 |
56.35% |
22.81% |
$15 |
25 |
1,200,000 |
516,723 |
683,277 |
56.94% |
16.73% |
$10 |
13 |
2,400,000 |
1,038,750 |
1,361,250 |
56.72% |
7.93% |
Ticket |
17 |
1,800,000 |
764,157 |
1,035,843 |
57.55% |
_ |
3.297 |
9,099,475 |
_ |
_ |
_ |
$250 Million Cash S. (733) |
$10 |
Total Return |
Prizes |
Odds 1 in |
Total # of Winners |
Prizes Claimed |
Prizes Available |
Percent Remain |
74.62% |
$1,000,000 |
1,200,000 |
37 |
32 |
5 |
13.51% |
66.28% |
$50,000 |
1,200,000 |
37 |
28 |
9 |
24.32% |
65.87% |
$10,000 |
600,000 |
74 |
56 |
18 |
24.32% |
65.70% |
$5,000 |
300,000 |
148 |
119 |
29 |
19.59% |
65.53% |
$1,000 |
18,462 |
2,405 |
1,916 |
489 |
20.33% |
65.00% |
$500 |
3,000 |
14,800 |
12,580 |
2,220 |
15.00% |
63.35% |
$200 |
632 |
70,300 |
59,886 |
10,414 |
14.81% |
60.28% |
$100 |
99 |
447,700 |
382,681 |
65,019 |
14.52% |
50.69% |
$50 |
62 |
721,500 |
614,216 |
107,284 |
14.87% |
43.17% |
$25 |
36 |
1,234,320 |
1,046,858 |
187,462 |
15.19% |
37.08% |
$20 |
14 |
3,108,000 |
2,639,611 |
468,389 |
15.07% |
24.03% |
$15 |
10 |
4,440,000 |
3,757,442 |
682,558 |
15.37% |
7.75% |
Ticket |
17 |
2,664,000 |
2,209,690 |
454,310 |
17.05% |
_ |
3.495 |
12,703,321 |
_ |
_ |
_ |
A suggestion for your website:
I assume you are already grabbing all the data anyway to calculate your EV number, why not show that data similar to the tables above? Or you could have it so that you click on the game name or denomination, and it "blows up" to show all the game detail.
Right now, I prefer to look at my spreadsheet with all the games listed games on one page, but I only update this manually and at home. I was thinking about trying to automate/script it myself, but its not bothered me enough to try and use my feeble skills to make a webpage. You already have everything right there, just need more detail and then I would visit your site.
Mainly it would be nice to get current numbers on the go on a smartphone, something that is not easy to do now. Would be nice if your site (or if Lottery Post had scratch data) provided complete detailed Scratch data like I have shown.
Note: some of your links don't appear on older smartphone browsers. Maybe make it simpler or make mobile version.