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CA Lottery - California Love - CA Lottery Scratchers

Topic closed. 2718 replies. Last post 1 year ago by CAScratcher20.

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LA CA
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Posted: January 8, 2013, 11:19 pm - IP Logged

Got a $10 Fortune from a Arco in Santa Clarita and won zitch :-(

    Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
    Los Angeles, California
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    Posted: January 10, 2013, 7:16 pm - IP Logged

    Got a couple of $10 $1M Fortunes for a couple of stores:

    0, $20

    0, $50 (10x $2 and two $15 matches)

      Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
      Los Angeles, California
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      Posted: January 18, 2013, 1:04 am - IP Logged

      So they've got all the signage out now for the new California Lucky for Life games, and just posted the game prize stats on the website. Supposed to start selling them next week:

      http://www.calottery.com/Play/Scratchers-games/$10-Scratchers/california-lucky-for-life-833

      http://www.calottery.com/Play/Scratchers-games/$5-Scratchers/california-lucky-for-life-832

      http://www.calottery.com/play/scratchers-games/$2-scratchers/california-lucky-for-life-831

      http://www.calottery.com/Play/Scratchers-games/$1-Scratchers/california-lucky-for-life-800

       

      I don't like they way they structured the $5 version of game, very top heavy and poor return for average play. Not quite as bad as the previous Set for Life game, that was the worst. But it's still bad, they could have structured it differently. I don't plan on playing a lot of that one.

      The $10 LFL is not too bad, I'd rather play that one. And there is very little penalty on the $1 and $2 LFL games compared to the regular ones. The $2 LFL seems to be the sweet spot for this series. I don't usually play much $2 games, but this one seems like a good one.

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        California
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        Posted: January 19, 2013, 1:30 am - IP Logged

        glad to see some new games show up, i'll def be giving these a try! Thumbs Up


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          January 18, 2013
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          Posted: January 19, 2013, 8:30 am - IP Logged

          Those new CA win for life tickets actually have markedly higher expected values than the rest of the tickets in each category. This is due to a very high top prize though, as stated above.

          Here are the $1 tickets sorted by initial Expected Value. The Lucky For Life has a 10% higher EV than the others.

          Game #Game NameTicket PricePercent RemainingInitial EVCurrent EVEV Change
          800CA LUCKY FOR LIFE$199.99%0.6640.6640
          775WILD HEARTS$168.00%0.6060.596-0.01
          771YEAR OF THE SNAKE$143.00%0.5970.573-0.024
          763MONOPOLY$130.00%0.6120.574-0.038
          766HAPPY HOLIDAYS!$126.00%0.6360.607-0.029
          749FA$T MONEY$119.00%0.6120.549-0.063
          755LUCKY 8'S$114.00%0.6130.567-0.046

           

          Same for the $10 version:

          Game #Game NameTicket PricePercent RemainingInitial EVCurrent EVEV Change
          833CA LUCKY FOR LIFE$1099.99%0.7790.7790
          762$1,000,000 FORTUNE$1057.00%0.7460.7580.013
          733$250 MILLION CASH SPECTACULAR$1016.00%0.7450.733-0.012
            Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
            Los Angeles, California
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            Posted: January 19, 2013, 1:12 pm - IP Logged

            Those new CA win for life tickets actually have markedly higher expected values than the rest of the tickets in each category. This is due to a very high top prize though, as stated above.

            Here are the $1 tickets sorted by initial Expected Value. The Lucky For Life has a 10% higher EV than the others.

            Game #Game NameTicket PricePercent RemainingInitial EVCurrent EVEV Change
            800CA LUCKY FOR LIFE$199.99%0.6640.6640
            775WILD HEARTS$168.00%0.6060.596-0.01
            771YEAR OF THE SNAKE$143.00%0.5970.573-0.024
            763MONOPOLY$130.00%0.6120.574-0.038
            766HAPPY HOLIDAYS!$126.00%0.6360.607-0.029
            749FA$T MONEY$119.00%0.6120.549-0.063
            755LUCKY 8'S$114.00%0.6130.567-0.046

             

            Same for the $10 version:

            Game #Game NameTicket PricePercent RemainingInitial EVCurrent EVEV Change
            833CA LUCKY FOR LIFE$1099.99%0.7790.7790
            762$1,000,000 FORTUNE$1057.00%0.7460.7580.013
            733$250 MILLION CASH SPECTACULAR$1016.00%0.7450.733-0.012

            I look at something similar. But in order to get a clear picture of how *good* a game is, you need to look at the entire prize structure.

            I evaluate a game by looking at what I call the Total Return at each prize level, not just for everything combined, which on the $10 LFL game is the same 77.97% as your Initial EV number. The difference is my Total Return does not change with sales and is fixed on the game odds, even across reorders of the game. I also look at the Percent Remaining at each level, which shows where more hits are occuring or lagging behind. Your Current EV number is kind of a combination of these two, but only on the game total.

            With the new $10 LFL game, it is very top heavy, as expected. They do this by sacrificing prizes in the middle to give more to the top prize. Sure, they increase the overall game return from 75% to 78%, but in more typical play, you'll only be getting back 55% instead of 60%. The $5 game is even worse, but the $2 and $1 LFL games are only a small penalty to offer the top prize.

            Lucky   for Life (833)$10
            Total   ReturnPrizesOdds 1 inTotal # of WinnersPrizes ClaimedPrizes AvailablePercent Remain
            77.97%$6,500,0003,000,00010010100.00%
            56.30%$20,0001,500,00020020100.00%
            56.17%$10,000600,00050050100.00%
            56.00%$5,000300,0001000100100.00%
            55.83%$1,00030,0001,00001,000100.00%
            55.50%$5006,6674,50004,500100.00%
            54.76%$100100300,0000300,000100.00%
            45.21%$5080375,0000375,000100.00%
            39.39%$3067450,0000450,000100.00%
            35.33%$20142,100,00002,100,000100.00%
            22.41%$15251,200,00001,200,000100.00%
            16.43%$10132,400,00002,400,000100.00%
            7.77%Ticket171,800,00001,800,000100.00%
            __3.4768,630,680___

            In comparison to $10 LFL, the other two *normal* $10 games  are much better in the middle range. You can also see, similar to your EV number, that the $1,000,000 Fortune game is kind of *hot* in that the Top prizes are lagging behind with percent remaining in the low 60% range, while the rest of the game is sold through in the 56% range. And likewise the $250M Cash Spectacular game is kind of *cold* with the top prize already sold out the the 13.5% range, while the rest of the game is at a nominal 15% remaining.

            $1,000,000   Fortune (762)$10
            Total   ReturnPrizesOdds 1 inTotal # of WinnersPrizes ClaimedPrizes AvailablePercent Remain
            74.63%$1,000,0001,200,0002591664.00%
            66.29%$20,000600,00050173366.00%
            65.96%$10,000600,00050193162.00%
            65.79%$5,000300,000100366464.00%
            65.63%$1,0002,85710,5003,9066,59462.80%
            62.15%$5001,26323,75010,43313,31756.07%
            58.23%$10082365,000159,708205,29256.24%
            46.62%$50100300,000131,325168,67556.23%
            41.98%$30100300,000130,919169,08156.36%
            39.31%$20112,700,0001,178,4871,521,51356.35%
            22.81%$15251,200,000516,723683,27756.94%
            16.73%$10132,400,0001,038,7501,361,25056.72%
            7.93%Ticket171,800,000764,1571,035,84357.55%
            _3.2979,099,475___
            $250 Million Cash S.   (733)$10
            Total   ReturnPrizesOdds 1 inTotal # of WinnersPrizes ClaimedPrizes AvailablePercent Remain
            74.62%$1,000,0001,200,0003732513.51%
            66.28%$50,0001,200,0003728924.32%
            65.87%$10,000600,00074561824.32%
            65.70%$5,000300,0001481192919.59%
            65.53%$1,00018,4622,4051,91648920.33%
            65.00%$5003,00014,80012,5802,22015.00%
            63.35%$20063270,30059,88610,41414.81%
            60.28%$10099447,700382,68165,01914.52%
            50.69%$5062721,500614,216107,28414.87%
            43.17%$25361,234,3201,046,858187,46215.19%
            37.08%$20143,108,0002,639,611468,38915.07%
            24.03%$15104,440,0003,757,442682,55815.37%
            7.75%Ticket172,664,0002,209,690454,31017.05%
            _3.49512,703,321___

            A suggestion for your website:

            I assume you are already grabbing all the data anyway to calculate your EV number, why not show that data similar to the tables above? Or you could have it so that you click on the game name or denomination, and it "blows up" to show all the game detail.

            Right now, I prefer to look at my spreadsheet with all the games listed games on one page, but I only update this manually and at home. I was thinking about trying to automate/script it myself, but its not bothered me enough to try and use my feeble skills to make a webpage. You already have everything right there, just need more detail and then I would visit your site.

            Mainly it would be nice to get current numbers on the go on a smartphone, something that is not easy to do now. Would be nice if your site (or if Lottery Post had scratch data) provided complete detailed Scratch data like I have shown.

            Note: some of your links don't appear on older smartphone browsers. Maybe make it simpler or make mobile version.


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              Posted: January 19, 2013, 4:43 pm - IP Logged

              Jon D:

              Thank you for the feedback. The reason I joined this forum was to learn what lottery-enthusiasts want to see and have already done with analyses like this (not to mention its kinda neat seeing all the big winners). 

              I like what you've done and eventually want to implement something similar to my site. I am just a beginner at web programming too. I know enough to grab the necessary data, process it, and display it. Right now my focus is on adding more states, but I may try working on a detailed ticket-by-ticket breakdown.

              In addition, I have a database of scratch-off records where people can input their ticket data (state, game number, ticket number, amount won) and look at other user inputs for a specific ticket. I haven't yet made this public because I am not sure if people would be interested.

              Ultimately, I would love to make this a smartphone app but I have next to no experience programming on those platforms.

              -Josh

                Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                Los Angeles, California
                United States
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                Posted: January 20, 2013, 1:00 pm - IP Logged

                Jon D:

                Thank you for the feedback. The reason I joined this forum was to learn what lottery-enthusiasts want to see and have already done with analyses like this (not to mention its kinda neat seeing all the big winners). 

                I like what you've done and eventually want to implement something similar to my site. I am just a beginner at web programming too. I know enough to grab the necessary data, process it, and display it. Right now my focus is on adding more states, but I may try working on a detailed ticket-by-ticket breakdown.

                In addition, I have a database of scratch-off records where people can input their ticket data (state, game number, ticket number, amount won) and look at other user inputs for a specific ticket. I haven't yet made this public because I am not sure if people would be interested.

                Ultimately, I would love to make this a smartphone app but I have next to no experience programming on those platforms.

                -Josh

                No problem, good for you in taking the initiative on the scratch data, hope to see more.

                One other thing that you can do with a regular pull and a database for scratch tickets sales is look at sales rate. For instance, if a game's top prizes are sold through way ahead of the rest of the game, and it is toward the end of the game, and the sales rate has slowed down, it is likely that no more top prizes are in circulation at all. This is a game to avoid. The rest of the top prizes could be in a warehouse waiting to be trashed.

                As for the detailed ticket analysis, I do that myself, although I think I'm probably in the minority here. I track every single ticket I buy, so I know how I'm doing by day, month, game, store, number, method, etc. A combined crowdsourced database would certainly be interesting. But for me personally, I don't necessarily want someone else to know exactly where and how much I'm spending my money! ;) Privacy would be an issue.

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                  LA CA
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                  Posted: January 20, 2013, 11:57 pm - IP Logged

                  Last evening grabbed a few $5 CA Black's(hard to find these days) from Cerritos and won zitch :-(

                    Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                    Los Angeles, California
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                    Posted: January 22, 2013, 12:59 pm - IP Logged

                    Last evening grabbed a few $5 CA Black's(hard to find these days) from Cerritos and won zitch :-(

                    CA Black used to be my go-to game, but it is now nearing the end of its life, and they will probably be announcing the end of game date soon.

                    Got 4 $5 Gold Bar Bingo from a grocery store vending machine, got back:

                    $20 0 $6 $10

                    While I don't really like to play extended games like bingo and crossword, I do find that they seem to be hawked less. People buy one or two to take away and spend time playing it, not sit at the machine and chase winners on other games leaving more losers for unsuspecting buyers.

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                      LA CA
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                      Posted: January 23, 2013, 12:33 pm - IP Logged

                      Got a $10 Fortune from a vending machine inside SEARS (yes inside Sears) at Valencia and won ziltch :-(

                        Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                        Los Angeles, California
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                        Posted: January 23, 2013, 1:07 pm - IP Logged

                        Got 4 $5 Gold Bar Bingo from a liquor store:

                        0 $5 0 $30

                        I'm doing strangely well on this game that I don't like very much, about 90% back through a little less than 100 plays. Which means I'm fixin' to get my butt kicked by lady luck, so I will stop playing this game as soon as LFL comes out later this week before that happens.

                          coolac5's avatar - 1 Million-Fortune_event_page.jpg
                          Oakland, CA
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                          Posted: January 23, 2013, 2:29 pm - IP Logged

                          New to the forum (my first post) but have been following for awhile.  I appreciate the analysis and wanted to contribute my results as well.

                          Am mainly playing 1M Fortune as it has the greatest disparity of prizes remaining.  Plus now just prefer to play the $10 outright.

                          Prior, I played the $5 only: Poker and monopoly, prior to that CA Black.  I found Poker to be frustrating; Monopoly gave me my previous biggest win to date ($50) with a WIN symbol uncovered.  CA Black was not very successful for me either, although my friend uncovered a $100 prize. 

                          Anyway, my results from 1M Fortune, bought from a convenience store machine

                           

                          Trip 1 20, 0

                          Trip 2 100 (ticket #9 on the roll, I should have bought more but my experience is that winners do not come in succession in 1M Fortune).

                            Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
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                            Posted: January 23, 2013, 4:52 pm - IP Logged

                            New to the forum (my first post) but have been following for awhile.  I appreciate the analysis and wanted to contribute my results as well.

                            Am mainly playing 1M Fortune as it has the greatest disparity of prizes remaining.  Plus now just prefer to play the $10 outright.

                            Prior, I played the $5 only: Poker and monopoly, prior to that CA Black.  I found Poker to be frustrating; Monopoly gave me my previous biggest win to date ($50) with a WIN symbol uncovered.  CA Black was not very successful for me either, although my friend uncovered a $100 prize. 

                            Anyway, my results from 1M Fortune, bought from a convenience store machine

                             

                            Trip 1 20, 0

                            Trip 2 100 (ticket #9 on the roll, I should have bought more but my experience is that winners do not come in succession in 1M Fortune).

                            Welcome to the forum! I know there are more California players lurking!

                            Thanks for posting your results, and congrats on you $100 win!

                            You are right about 1M Fortune not having many successive hits. My experience shows about 4-5 times more single hits than sequential hits on $10 games. $5 games typically have about twice as many single hits as sequential hits, some more, some less.(gold bar bingo is a bit more than 50% sequential hits)

                            You were correct in taking that first ticket $100 and running. Likely, that is the highest and only big winner in that roll, and you got it!

                            The game has not been very good to me, hit $100 a couple of times but nothing higher. I only play 1 or 2 here and there, not very heavily.

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                              LA CA
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                              Posted: January 24, 2013, 11:48 pm - IP Logged

                              You are lucky.. The maximum I have won ever on any scratcher is $50.

                                 
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